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COMPANY PROFILE
Kohl's Corporation
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E3C4AA08E107
PUBLICATION DATE: 14 Jan 2016
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Company
Overview................................................................................
..............3
Key
Facts.................................................................................... ...
........................3
SWOT
Analysis..................................................................................
...................4
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Kohl's Corporation
TABLE OF CONTENTS
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Kohl's Corporation (Kohl's or 'the company') operates specialty
department stores in the US. The
department stores offer national and private label brands in
various product categories, including
apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty and home products. The
company is headquartered in
Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin and employed about 137,000
people as of January 31, 2015, of whom
105,000 were part-time employees.
The company recorded revenues of $19,023 million in the
financial year ended January 2015
(FY2015), registering a marginal decrease compared to FY2014.
The operating profit of the company
was $1,689 million in FY2015, a decrease of 3% compared to
FY2014. The net profit was $867
million in FY2015, a decrease of 2.5% compared to FY2014.
KEY FACTS
Kohl's CorporationHead Office
N56 W17000 Ridgewood Drive
Menomonee Falls
Wisconsin 53051
USA
1 262 703 7000Phone
Fax
http://www.kohlscorporation.comWeb Address
19,023.0Revenue / turnover
(USD Mn)
JanuaryFinancial Year End
137,000Employees
KSSNew York Ticker
Kohl's Corporation Page 3
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Kohl's Corporation
Company Overview
SWOT ANALYSIS
Kohl's operates specialty department stores in the US. It is the
exclusive US retailer for a number
of brands, including Food Network, Jennifer Lopez, Marc
Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply
Vera Vera Wang. The strategy of focusing on expanding its
exclusive brands offering drives the
increase in customer base and consequently the top line growth
as each of its exclusive brands
enjoy strong customer loyalty. A strong portfolio of exclusive
brands provides a competitive advantage
to the company thereby strengthening its market position.
However, intense competition could have
an adverse impact on the company's sales and profitability.
WeaknessesStrengths
Concentrated geographic presence and
limited product selection
Differentiating itself through exclusive brand
offerings
Strong omni-channel presence
ThreatsOpportunities
Intense competitionIncreasing preference to shop online
Increasing labor costs in the USGrowing apparel market in the
US
Growing demand for private label brands
Strengths
Differentiating itself through exclusive brand offerings
Kohl's is the exclusive US retailer for a number of brands such
as Food Network, Jennifer Lopez,
Marc Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply Vera Vera Wang.
Other than licensing agreements, the
company also partners with popular designers and celebrities in
order to feature their designed
garments at its stores. For instance, in 2013, the company
partnered with various designers including
Catherine Malandrino, Derek Lam and Peter Som for its
DesigNation limited-edition collection. Kohl's
launched the Derek Lam for DesigNation limited-edition
collection featuring misses' apparel and
swimwear at Kohl's stores and Kohls.com in 2013. Catherine
Malandrino for DesigNation collection
featuring dresses, skirts, pants, shirts, sweaters and outerwear
was made available at Kohl's stores
nationwide and at Kohls.com in 2013. In FY2014, the company
launched an assortment of over 20
new national beauty and fragrance brands in over 250 stores and
on-line. In April 2014, Kohl's and
Disney announced a Disney-branded apparel collection for kids
under the Jumping Beans brand,
exclusively at Kohl's stores and at Kohls.com. In September
2014, Kohl's announced a partnership
with MILLY by Michelle Smith to launch its DesigNation
limited-edition collection. The capsule
collection features women apparel. In the same month, the
company announced the availability of
Elie Tahari for DesigNation collection at Kohl's stores
nationwide and on Kohls.com.
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Kohl's Corporation
SWOT Analysis
Kohl’s announced the availability of Gaiam women’s apparel
collection at Kohl’s stores nationwide
and on Kohls.com, in April 2015. In August 2015, the company,
in partnership with actress and
fitness enthusiast, Shay Mitchell, introduced ‘Fit to Wander’
athleisure apparel collection at Kohl’s
stores and on Kohls.com. Kohl’s announced the availability of
Thakoon for DesigNation collection
at Kohl's stores nationwide and on Kohls.com, in September
2015. In October 2015, the company
announced the availability of Madden Girl collection at Kohl’s
stores and on Kohls.com. The collection
includes cold weather boots, accessories and outerwear.
The strategy of focusing on expanding its exclusive brands
offering drives the increase in customer
base and consequently the top line growth as each of its
exclusive brands enjoy strong customer
loyalty. In addition, the private and exclusive brands, which
have higher gross margin rate than
national brands, will increase the profitability for Kohl's. A
strong portfolio of exclusive brands therefore
provides a competitive advantage to the company and helps in
strengthening its market position.
Strong omni-channel presence
Kohl’s follows an omni-channel strategy, which involves
integration of stores, internet and mobile
devices in order to meet the needs of customers as well as to
deploy all of the company's inventory.
Through this strategy, the company’s stores can increase online
sales by providing customers
opportunities to view, touch and/or try on physical merchandise
before they order online; customers
can return online purchases at the company’s stores, as well as
earn and redeem Kohl's Cash
coupons and Yes2You rewards online or in store irrespective of
where they were earned; and in-store
customers can order from online kiosks in its stores. This
strategy also helps the customers who
utilize the company’s mobile application while in the store to
receive mobile coupons that can be
used when they check out. They can also order online and pick-
up in store in approximately 100
stores. Further in September 2015, Kohl’s introduced a new
omnichannel and digital initiative to
deliver an easy shopping experience to its customers. These
initiatives include a store mode for
Kohl’s mobile application, enhanced mobile payment options
like Apple Pay, a continuous omnichannel
shopping bag across platforms, and visa checkout on Kohls.com
and on mobile. Kohl’s will also pilot
same-day delivery in selected markets.
Therefore, increasing focus on omni-channel approach will help
in presenting and selling its brands
and collections to its customers in an efficient manner, in both
the online and offline channels. This
approach further helps in increasing Kohl’s market penetration
across various segments of customers.
Weaknesses
Concentrated geographic presence and limited product selection
Kohl's is completely dependent on the US economy for its
revenue generation. In comparison, its
competitors such as The Gap and Wal-Mart Stores have
operations in countries outside the US as
well. The Gap derived 23% of its revenues from non-US regions
(7% from Canada and 16% from
other foreign countries) in FY2015. Wal-Mart Stores, which
operates in the US and other international
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Kohl's Corporation
SWOT Analysis
markets, derived 28.2% of its revenue from international
markets during the same period. Diversified
business operations allow these companies to reduce their
business risk by limiting exposure to
fluctuations in economic factors in a particular region.
In addition, the company offers a limited product selection as
compared to its peers. Sears Holdings’
product assortment includes apparel, toys, home fashion
products, outdoor living products, consumer
electronics, home appliances, footwear, grocery, sporting goods,
health and beauty products, tires
and batteries, and jewelry and accessories among others. Kohl's,
in comparison, offers an assortment
of apparel, footwear, accessories, soft home products such as
sheets and pillows, and housewares.
Thus, concentrated geographic presence makes Kohl's
vulnerable to fluctuations in the US economy
which, in turn, could adversely impact its top-line growth. In
addition, the company's limited product
selection restricts its potential to compete against companies
with diversified product offerings.
Opportunities
Increasing preference to shop online
Online shopping in the US has witnessed strong growth over the
last few years. According to the
US Department of Commerce, online retail sales (adjusted for
seasonal variation) in the US increased
from $169.3 billion in 2010 to $297.2 billion in 2014,
representing a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 15.1%. e-commerce sales increased 14.4% in 2014
over the previous year. Total retail
sales, on the other hand, grew by only 3.6% during 2014. e-
commerce sales accounted for 6.4% of
total retail sales in 2014, compared to 4.4% in 2010.
Furthermore, e-commerce sales for the third
quarter of 2015 totaled $87.5 billion, an increase of 15.1%
compared to the third quarter of 2014.
Kohl's has a strong presence in the online retail format. The
company markets a range of product
categories through its e-commerce site www.kohls.com.The
website offers a selection of items and
categories beyond what is available in stores. The website
primarily focuses on offering extended
sizes, product line extensions and web-exclusive product lines.
The company also operates four
e-commerce fulfillment centers to distribute purchases made
through its e-commerce site. By
leveraging its existing platform, the company can capitalize on
the growing trend to shop online and
also expand customer base.
Growing apparel market in the US
The apparel industry has witnessed a decline in the last few
years as the demand declined due to
several factors, including the economic slowdown and the
fluctuations in the raw material prices
which led to an increase in the prices. However, with the
economic condition in developed markets
improving leading to an increase in consumer spending, the
apparel market is expected to perform
well in the next few years. According to MarketLine, the US
accounts for 28.5% of the global apparel
retail industry value. The apparel retail industry in the US grew
by 1.9% in 2014 to reach a value of
$375.1 billion. Womenswear was the largest segment of the
apparel retail industry in the US for the
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Kohl's Corporation
SWOT Analysis
same period, accounting for 51% of the industry's total value.
By 2019, the US apparel retail industry
is forecast to have a value of $457.6 billion, an increase of 22%
since 2014.
Kohl's sells apparel for women, men and children under
national, exclusive and private label brands
at all its stores. During FY2015, the women's and men's
business lines accounted for 30% and 20%
of the company's revenues, respectively, a significant portion of
which is apparel sales. With apparel
market in the US growing, Kohl's is well positioned to generate
revenues from its product offering.
Growing demand for private label brands
Demand for private label products has been growing in the US
since last few years. These products
provide customers with an attractive alternative to higher-priced
national brands. Instead of buying
expensive brands, consumers across the industry are turning to
generic and private label products.
Even upper-income shoppers are more willing to buy store
brands, which has traditionally appealed
more to shoppers with limited budgets. According to industry
estimates, among all major US retail
channels, private label sales increased by approximately 3% in
2014, whereas national brands sales
grew by nearly 1% during the same period. In supermarkets,
unit and dollar shares increased to
nearly 23% and 20%, respectively.
The company offers a wide range of products under its private
labels such as Apt. 9, Croft & Barrow,
Jumping Beans, SO and Sonoma Life + Style. The change in
customer preference and strong
inclination towards private label products will enable Kohl’s to
increase the sales of its own branded
products. As these products have higher margins they will
contribute to a strong bottom line.
Threats
Intense competition
The retail industry in the US is highly competitive. Kohl's
competes with traditional department stores,
upscale mass merchandisers, off-price retailers, internet and
catalog businesses, specialty stores
and other forms of retail commerce. The key competitive factors
include style, quality, price,
merchandise mix, brands, service, customer experience and
convenience. The company competes
directly with larger retail players such as Target, Wal-Mart
Stores and Sears Holdings in many of
the markets it operates. These retailers have large market
presence and larger economies of scale,
which provide greater power to negotiate for better margins
with vendors. Therefore, the company
will have to constantly differentiate itself from its competitors
through efficient and in trend
merchandising, and attractive promotional programs in order to
retain its market share; otherwise,
intense competition could drive away its potential and existing
customers which could result in drop
in its revenues and profit margins.
Increasing labor costs in the US
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Kohl's Corporation
SWOT Analysis
Tight labor markets, increased overtime, government mandated
increases in minimum wages and
a higher proportion of full-time employees have resulted in an
increase in labor costs for many of
the employers. The federal minimum wage rate in the US, which
remained at $5.15 per hour since
1998, increased to $5.85 per hour in 2008. It further increased
to $6.55 per hour in 2009 and to
$7.25 per hour in 2010. Many states and municipalities in the
country have minimum wage rates
even higher than the federal minimum wage rate due to the
higher cost of living. For instance, in
California, the minimum wage rate increased from $9 in 2015 to
$10 in 2016; in Connecticut, the
minimum wage rate grew from $9.15 in 2015 to $9.6 in 2016.
The minimum wage rate increased
from $8.23 in 2015 to $8.31 in 2016 in Colorado. Similarly, in
Alaska, the minimum wage rate
increased from $8.75 in 2015 to $9.75 in 2016; in Arkansas, it
increased from $7.5 in 2015 to $8 in
2016; and in Massachusetts, the minimum wage rate increased
from $9 in 2015 to $10 in 2016.
Kohl's employed about 137,000 people as of January 31, 2015.
Rising labor costs can increase the
company's operating cost and adversely impact its margins.
Kohl's Corporation Page 8
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Kohl's Corporation
SWOT Analysis
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RUNNING HEAD: DCF VALUATION and EVA & MVA
ASSIGNMENT
3
DCF VALUATION AND EVA & MVA ASSIGNMENT
DCF Valuation and EVA & MVA Assignment –
The Coca Cola Company
I. Introduction
Some of the valuation measures used by investors to analyze
whether or not it is beneficial to invest in a company are the
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation, the Economic Value
Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA) Analysis. The
Coca Cola Company (KO) has been one of the leading bottled
beverage producers for decades but has been facing declining
sales due to a more health-conscious consumer market in the
most recent years. These declining sales and increased interest
expenses due to increased liabilities after a majority acquisition
of shares in Green Mountain Beverage Co. resulted only in
acceptable, but not too promising future financial performance
forecasts for KO in the eVal Model. This paper will analyze
whether KO is still a good investment choice through a DCF
Valuation and whether the company is able to create
shareholder wealth or destroys it through an EVA and MVA
analysis.
II. Explanation of the Variables Used in the DCF Valuation
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation analyzes future
cash flow estimates and discounts these with a discount rate to
create a present value for the predicted future cash flows. The
DCF valuation evaluates the potential for investment. If the
value of the DCF valuation is greater than the cost of the
investment it is considered a good stock pick (Damodaran, n.d.).
The variables used in the DCF valuation include: Cost of Equity
(calculated with the CAPM) and Cost of Net Debt (based on
KO’s SEC 10K), which result in the Weighted Average Cost of
Capital (WACC) that will be used as the discount rate in the
DCF valuation. KO does not have any preferred stock
outstanding; thus the value is 0% in this model. Furthermore,
the terminal growth rate is important in the DCF valuation to
determine the future cash flow estimates.
The Coca Cola Company has a Cost of Common Equity of 6%.
The input for the CAPM formula are the risk-free rate of 1.76%
based on the rate of the 10-year treasury bond as of 2/19/15
(Yahoo! Finance, 2016), the market risk premium, which is
according to average historic rates 5.5% and the beta coefficient
of KO of 0.77 (Yahoo! Finance, 2016). The Cost of Equity was
calculated with the CAPM Formula:
Cost of Equity = Risk-free Rate + Market Risk Premium * Beta
of KO
= 1.76% + 5.5% * 0.77
= 5.995% or approximately 6%.
The Cost of Debt is based on interest rates on short- and long-
term debt stated in the company’s SEC 10K. According to KO’s
SEC 10K, the company’s average cost of debt for short-term
debt is 1.2% and the average cost for long-term debt is 2.2%
(Coca Cola, 2015). Weighted by the amount of short- and long-
term debt outstanding this results in an average cost of debt of
1.65%. However, entering a value lower than 4% into the eVal
Model led to invalid results, thus the cost of debt for the
purpose of this analysis was entered as 4% in the eVal Model,
the lowest valid cost of debt. KO has a corporate tax rate of
23.60% according to the company’s SEC 10K (Coca Cola,
2015).
Based on these inputs, the adjusted WACC is 9.73%. WACC is
calculated with the following formula:
WACC = (weight of equity * cost of equity) + (weight of debt *
cost of debt) * (1-tax rate) (Clayman et al., 2012).
The last input factor needed for the DCF Valuation is the
terminal growth rate, which is 3% for KO. The Coca Cola
Company is a stable company and therefore does not expect
large growth as a technology firm would, but marginal growth.
A positive growth rate signals the company is expected to be
able to improve its performance from the previous years by
further diversifying its product portfolio through strategic
acquisitions like the partnership with Green Mountain Beverage
Company.
Entering the above presented variables in the DCF Valuation in
the eVal Model led to the results discussed in the following
section.
III. Explanation and Interpretation of DCF Valuation Results
The DCF Valuation in the eVal Model can be used to calculate
the intrinsic value of a company and therefore determine
whether shares are currently selling over- or undervalued. If the
intrinsic value is larger than the current market price the shares
are selling undervalued and it is a good investment. When the
intrinsic value is less than the current market price, shares are
overvalued and are not a recommended investment
(Investopedia, 2003).
The DCF Valuation for KO results in a Forecasted Value of
$196,556,842,000. Since the Value of Contingent Equity Claims
is 0, the Value Attributable to Common Equity is
$196,556,842,000. This aligns with the currently stated Market
Cap of $190.36bn (Yahoo! Finance, 2016) considering a
terminal growth rate of 3%. Dividing this value by the common
shares outstanding, 4,366 million, the DCF Valuation forecasts
a Price per Share of $45.03. On February 19, 2016 the current
market price per share at the NYSE for KO was $43.77. This
means the intrinsic value of KO calculated with the DCF
Valuation is larger than the market price, which indicates that
shares are currently selling undervalued. Considering a positive
terminal growth rate and the shares selling at a lower price than
the intrinsic value KO is a good investment choice.
IV. Explanation of the Data Used for the EVA Analysis and
Interpretation of Results
The Economic Value Added (EVA) is used to measure the
economic value added by management during a given year
(EVA & MVA Model, n.d.).
The formula for EVA is:
EVA = Net Operating Profit After Tax – (WACC * Invested
Capital).
The EVA considers Invested Capital as the sum of short- &
long-term debt and shareholder equity. The Net Operating Profit
is calculated by decreasing the operating income by the
estimated income taxes of the company. The WACC calculation
has been explained in the DCF Valuation section.
Entering KO’s 2014 values from the company’s financial
statements into the EVA Model for short-term debt
($22,682,000), long-term debt ($19,063,000), common stock
($1,760,000) and Retained Earnings (63,408,000), Total
Invested Capital of $109,519,000 is calculated. Data for the
current price of stock ($43.77), Number of Shares Outstanding
(4,366,000), EBIT ($9,808,000) and the corporate tax rate
(23.6%) less taxes ($2,314,688) results in the NOPAT of
$7,493,312. In the last step of the model values for the cost of
short-term debt (1.2%), long-term debt (2.2%), the market risk
premium (5.5%), the risk-free rate on a ten-year treasury bond
(1.76%), debt to equity ratio (0.64), beta (0.77) leads to the
Cost of Equity of 5.995% and thus to a WACC of 4.3%. The
EVA Analysis based on these input factors is:
EVA = $7,493,312 – (4.3% * $109,519,000) = $2,644,023.60.
This means in 2014 the management of KO was able to create
Economic Added Value of $2,644,023.60. Thus, the firm is
creating shareholder wealth and is an attractive investment.
The EVA is an important measure to determine whether a
company creates or destroys shareholder wealth. A closely
related measure is the MVA (Peterson Drake, P. & Fabozzi, F.,
2012). Usually if the company is managed in a way that
increases the EVA, the MVA will also be higher. The MVA,
also a measure of shareholder wealth creation will be analyzed
in the next section.
V. Explanation of the Data Used for the MVA Analysis and
Interpretation of Results
The Market Value Added (MVA) is the “difference between the
market value of equity and the amount of Equity Capital
[investors provided]” (EVA & MVA Model, n.d.). Therefore,
MVA measures the amount of wealth a company has created
over time and is considered the principal indicator of
shareholder wealth creation. In the MVA Model the value of the
firm equals the Market value of its debt and equity. The formula
for the MVA calculation is:
MVA = (MV of Equity + MV of Debt) – Total Capital
Invested
= Market Value of Firm – Total Capital Invested.
Using the same input as for the above discussed EVA Analysis,
the MVA of KO is:
MVA = ($190,354,854.60 + $41,745,000) - $106,913,000 =
$125,186,854.60.
KO’s MVA of $125,186,854.60 indicates the amount of wealth
the firm has created over time (Peterson Drake, P. & Fabozzi, F.
2012). This result aligns with the connection mentioned above
that usually an increase in EVA will also lead to a higher MVA.
Considering the MVA as the principal indicator of shareholder
wealth maximization, KO is an attractive opportunity for
investors.
VI. Conclusion and Recommendation
Considering all three valuation measures discussed in this
analysis The Coca Cola Company is a well performing firm and
a recommended investment as it has an intrinsic value larger
than the current market price, has an increased EVA and high
MVA that both indicate that the firm is creating shareholder
wealth. This proves even though Coca Cola faced declining
sales in the most recent years, the company, if able to further
diversify its product portfolio and provide consumers with
healthier choices, will continue to be a valuable asset in an
investor’s portfolio.
References
Clayman, M. & Fridson, M. & Troughton, H. (2012). Corporate
finance: a Practical Approach, Second Edition. Hoboken, NJ:
Wiley.
Coca Cola. (2015). SEC 10K. Retrieved from http://www.coca-
colacompany.com/content/dam/journey/us/en/private/fileas
sets/pdf/2015/02/2014- annual-report-on-form-10-k.pdf
Damodaran, A. (n.d.) Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: Basics.
Retrieved from
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/basic
s.pdf
EVA & MVA Model. (n.d.). Retrieved from
https://learn.umuc.edu/d2l/le/125356/discussions/posts/186
85425/ViewAttachment?fileId =5271294
Investopedia. (2003). Intrinsic Value Definition. Retrieved from
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/intrinsicvalue.asp
Peterson Drake, P., & Fabozzi, F. (2012). Analysis of financial
statements, Third Edition. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Yahoo! Finance. (2016). KO Key Statistics. Retrieved from
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KO
EVA and MVAECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA)MARKET
VALUE ADDED (MVA)ECONOMIC VALUE ADDEDEVA is a
measure that is used to estimate the amount of economic value
added by management during a given year.MARKET VALUE
ADDEDMVA is the difference between the market value of
equity and the amount of Equity Capital that investors have
supplied.EVA &MVA ARE CLOSELY RELATEDEVA and
MVA are related in a significant way. Managing the firm in
ways that increase EVA will generally lead to higher MVA,
an important measure of shareholder wealth creation.
EVA ExampleECONOMIC VALUE ADDEDEVA = Net
Operating Profit After-tax - (WACC * Invested Capital)Where
Invested Capital = (Debt + Equity); It is determined by
summing short-term debt, long-term debt and shareholder
equity (capital stock, paid-in capital and retained
earnings).Net Operating Profit is determined by reducing
operating income by the amount of estimated income
taxes.The firm's weighted average cost of capital is used to
calculate the annual capital charge. It is determined by
multiplying the after-tax weighted average cost of capital by
the amount of invested capital.EVA ExampleYearShort-term
DebtLong-term DebtCommon StockPaid-in CapitalRetained
EarningsTotal Capital
Invested1$500.0$26,100.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$16,392.0$63,992.0
2$0.0$22,800.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$25,275.0$69,075.03$0.0$69,
500.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$69,141.0$159,641.04$0.0$61,200.0$5,
000.0$16,000.0$123,544.0$205,744.05$0.0$102,900.0$5,000.0$
16,000.0$206,599.0$330,499.06$0.0$89,600.0$5,000.0$16,000.
0$276,644.0$387,244.07$0.0$76,300.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$378,7
09.0$476,009.08$0.0$63,000.0$4,500.0$0.0$286,020.0$353,520
.09$0.0$51,500.0$4,300.0$0.0$278,952.0$334,752.0YearSalesO
perating Income (EBIT)Less: TaxesEquals: Net Operating Profit
After Taxes (NOPAT)Invested CapitalWACCCapital
ChargeEVA (NOPAT - Capital
Charge)1$82,800.0$13,400.0$3,200.0$10,200.0$63,992.012.60
%$8,063.0$2,137.02$97,200.0$18,100.0$4,700.0$13,400.0$69,0
75.015.93%$11,003.6$2,396.43$181,400.0$67,500.0$19,600.0$
47,900.0$159,641.031.07%$49,600.5($1,700.5)4$196,900.0$85,
600.0$24,300.0$61,300.0$205,744.028.72%$59,089.7$2,210.35
$283,300.0$130,600.0$36,700.0$93,900.0$330,499.027.18%$89
,829.6$4,070.46$237,000.0$107,300.0$31,200.0$76,100.0$387,
244.019.63%$76,016.0$84.07$372,800.0$153,800.0$45,800.0$1
08,000.0$476,009.022.51%$107,149.6$850.48$204,100.0$72,20
0.0$22,400.0$49,800.0$353,520.014.87%$52,568.4($2,768.4)9$
239,500.0$70,300.0$21,000.0$49,300.0$334,752.014.04%$46,9
99.2$2,300.8
MVA ExampleMARKET VALUE ADDED (MVA)MVA is the
difference between the market value of equity and the amount of
equity capital that investors have supplied.MVA measures
the amount of wealth a firm has created over time.As such, it is
the principal indicator of shareholder wealth maximization.For
the purpose of estimating MVA, the value of a firm equals the
market value of its debt and equity.YearMarket Value of
EquityPlus: Market Value of DebtEquals: Market Value of
FirmMinus: Total Capital InvestedEquals:
MVA1$75,000.0$26,100.0$101,100.0$63,992.0$37,108.02$121,
100.0$22,800.0$143,900.0$69,075.0$74,825.03$354,200.0$69,5
00.0$423,700.0$159,641.0$264,059.04$624,600.0$61,200.0$68
5,800.0$205,744.0$480,056.05$1,034,800.0$102,900.0$1,137,7
00.0$330,499.0$807,201.06$1,110,900.0$89,600.0$1,200,500.0
$387,244.0$813,256.07$1,414,200.0$76,300.0$1,490,500.0$476
,009.0$1,014,491.08$1,069,700.0$63,000.0$1,132,700.0$353,52
0.0$779,180.09$985,500.0$51,500.0$1,037,000.0$334,752.0$70
2,248.0
EVA MVA ModelCALCULATION OF EVA AND MVAName of
CompanyMcCormick & Co. (MKC)Year2014Short-Term
Debt$270,800.00From Balance Sheet - End of Previous
YearLong-Term Debt$1,014,100.00Preferred Dividend $ per
sharePreferred Stock Price per shareFrom Balance Sheet - End
of Previous YearPreferred Stock$0.00$0.00$0.00From Balance
Sheet - End of Previous YearCommon Stock$995,600.00From
Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearPaid-In Capital$0.00From
Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearRetained
Earnings$982,600.00From Balance Sheet - End of Previous
YearTotal Invested Capital$3,263,100.00Computer
CalculatesPrice of Stock$88.49Current Market DataNumber of
Shares Outstanding115,370.00Yahoo Finance EBIT
$604,100.00Calculate from Income Statement - Current
YearTax Rate24.15%Calculate from Income Statement (Taxes /
Income Before Taxes)Less: Taxes$145,890.15Computer
CalculatesEquals NOPAT$458,209.85Computer CalculatesRate
on Short-Term Debt3.50%From Form 10K Report or Current S-
T Bond DataRate on Long-Term Debt5.70%From Form 10K
Report or Current L-T Bond DataMarket Risk
Premium5.50%Normally 5% - 6%; Use 5.5%Risk-Free Rate
(L/T Treasury bond)3.00%Current Rate on 10yr. Treasury
BondDebt to Equity Ratio0.65Computer CalculatesBeta of
Stock0.65Yahoo Finance Cost of Preferred
Stock0.00%Computer CalculatesCost of Equity Capital6.575%%
S-T Debt% L-T Debt% Equity% Preferred
StockWACC6.05%8.30%31.08%60.62%0.00%Analysis is
Computer GeneratedCALCULATION OF EVA - ECONOMIC
VALUE ADDEDEBITLess: TaxesEquals: NOPAT (Net
Operating Profit After Tax)Equals: Invested Capital - Beginning
of PeriodWACCCapital ChargeEVA (NOPAT - Capital
Charge)$604,100.00$145,890.15$458,209.85$3,263,100.006.05
%$197,348.35$260,861.50Return on Invested Capital
14.04%NOPAT/Inv. CapitalFirm is Creating Shareholder
WealthCALCULATION OF MVA - MARKET VALUE
ADDEDMarket Value of EquityPlus: Market Value of
DebtEquals: Market Value of FirmMinus: Total Invested
CapitalEquals:
MVA$10,209,091.30$1,284,900.00$11,493,991.30$3,263,100.0
0$8,230,891.30Firm is Creating Shareholder Wealth
Sheet5
Sheet6
COMPANY: KOHL’S
PART 1: Financial Forecast (COMPLETED ALREADY)
PART 2: CAPITAL BUDGETING (COMPLETED ALREADY)
PART 3:
1 DCF Company Valuation –
Prepare a DCF Valuation of the selected company using the
eVal model and the projections developed in Week 2 (this is the
financial forecast you’ve previously submitted, I attached your
previous work).
Compare the intrinsic value of the company's stock (valuation)
to the current stock price.
Interpret and explain the results.
2 EVA & MVA Analysis -
Prepare an analysis of EVA and MVA for the selected
company. Excel models are provided by the instructor. Explain
the results.
(see attachment for example!) –
Excel Worksheet Attached named “MODEL_EXAMPLE”
Attached is an Excel Workbook that contains several
worksheets. The first worksheet reviews the definitions of EVA
and MVA.
The second worksheet provides an example of how to calculate
EVA.
The third worksheet provides an example of how to calculate
MVA.
The last worksheet includes an Excel model that can be used to
calculate EVA and MVA for a firm.
**USEFUL:
Supplement: Video EVA and MVA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCaeMTSTWYs
IntroSTEPS:1) enter financial data on the Financial Statements
Sheet,2) examine the Ratio Analysis and Cash Flow Analysis,3)
enter forecasts on the Forecasting Assumptions Sheet to create
future Financial Statement predictions,4) enter cost of capital
assumptions on the Valuation Parameters Sheet to determine the
company's value,5) evaluate the details of the resulting
valuation for either the Residual Income of Discounted Cash
Flow models.Other Useful Links:Where to buy the latest 'Equity
Valuation and Analysis' textbookCheck here for updated
versions of eValSupplements to the textbook cases
© 2012, Russell Lundholm and Richard Sloan.
version 4.00
Russell Lundholm
Richard Sloan
Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis'
textbook
Supplements to the textbook cases
Check here for updated versions of eVal
Check here for updated versions of eVal
Supplements to the textbook cases
Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis'
textbook
Financial StatementsFinancial Statements($000s)Data can be
entered manually in financial statements or as a block cut-and-
paste from the Case Data Sheet to the Raw Data Input section
below.Jump to Raw Data InputCompany Name and
TickerKOHL'SKSSLink to Form 10-KsCommon Shares
Outstanding7,154(in 000s at most recent fiscal year
end)Estimated
Price/Share=$83,726.48ActualActualActualActualActualForecas
tForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFore
castForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End (YYYY-MM-
DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Income StatementSales
(Net)18,800,00019,280,00019,030,00019,020,00019,200,00019,
417,54919,673,81319,970,19020,308,31520,690,07821,117,646
21,593,47422,120,33722,701,35323,340,01224,040,21224,761,4
18Cost of Goods
Sold1,240,00013,120,00012,980,00012,980,00013,200,00013,34
9,56513,525,74713,729,50613,961,96614,224,42914,518,38114,
845,51315,207,73215,607,18016,046,25816,527,64617,023,475
Gross
Profit20,040,00032,400,00032,010,00032,000,00032,400,00032,
767,11333,199,56033,699,69634,270,28134,914,50735,636,027
36,438,98737,328,06938,308,53339,386,27040,567,85841,784,8
94R&D Expense00000000000000000SG&A
Expense4,240,0004,270,0004,310,0004,350,0004,450,0004,500,
4214,559,8164,628,5084,706,8754,795,3574,894,4545,004,7375
,126,8495,261,5125,409,5345,571,8205,738,975EBITDA24,280,
00036,670,00036,320,00036,350,00036,850,00037,267,53537,7
59,37638,328,20338,977,15639,709,86440,530,48141,443,7254
2,454,91843,570,04544,795,80446,139,67847,523,868Depreciat
ion &
Amortization778,000833,000889,000886,000934,000927,57193
8,952952,226967,466984,7581,004,1971,025,8961,049,9801,07
6,5911,105,8871,138,0461,172,187EBIT25,058,00037,503,0003
7,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10638,698,32839,280,43
039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469,62143,504,89944,646,
63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055Net Interest
Expense303,000329,000338,000345,000332,000332,012336,085
340,837346,292352,481359,439367,206375,826385,351395,837
407,348419,569Non-Operating Income
(Loss)1,860,0001,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,010
1,086,1581,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,22
1,2271,253,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037EBT27,221,00039,
392,00037,687,00038,931,00039,176,00039,599,12840,120,572
40,723,78741,412,10242,189,36743,059,98844,028,96745,101,9
5246,285,29147,586,09149,012,29250,482,660Income
Taxes692,000575,000515,000482,000384,000388,147393,25939
9,171405,918413,537422,071431,568442,086453,685466,43548
0,415494,827Other Income (Loss)00000000000000000Net
Income Before Ext.
Items27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,
987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,058
44,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,4
87Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.00000000000000000Minority Interest
in Earnings00000000000000000Preferred
Dividends00000000000000000Net Income (available to
common)27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00
039,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,
05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,9
77,487Balance SheetOperating Cash and Market.
Sec.1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724,447
735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859,447
885,231911,788Receivables00025,00026,00026,29526,64227,04
327,50128,01828,59729,24129,95530,74131,60632,55433,531In
ventories320,0003,750,0003,870,0003,810,0004,040,0004,085,7
764,139,6984,202,0614,273,2084,353,5374,443,5054,543,6274,
654,4884,776,7434,911,1275,058,4615,210,215Other Current
Assets371,000434,000447,000452,000305,000308,456312,5273
17,235322,606328,671335,463343,021351,391360,620370,7663
81,889393,345Total Current
Assets1,901,0004,721,0005,288,0005,697,0005,078,0005,135,53
75,203,3145,281,6995,371,1265,472,0955,585,1775,711,0245,8
50,3686,004,0356,172,9476,358,1356,548,879PP&E
(Net)8,910,0008,870,0008,750,0008,520,0008,310,0008,404,158
8,515,0728,643,3488,789,6928,954,9259,139,9819,345,9259,57
3,9599,825,42910,101,84910,404,90410,717,051Investments153
,00053,00064,00000000000000000Intangibles000000000000000
00Other
Assets261,000261,000277,000218,000222,000224,515227,4782
30,905234,815239,229244,173249,675255,766262,484269,8692
77,965286,304Total
Assets11,225,00013,905,00014,379,00014,435,00013,610,00013
,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331
15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2
35Current
Debt94,000105,000139,000110,000127,000128,439130,134132,
094134,331136,856139,684142,832146,317150,160154,384159,
016163,786Accounts
Payable1,230,0001,310,0001,370,0001,510,0001,250,0001,264,
1631,280,8471,300,1431,322,1561,347,0101,374,8471,405,8251
,440,1261,477,9531,519,5321,565,1181,612,072Income Taxes
Payable133,000290,00094,00078,000130,000131,473133,20813
5,215137,504140,089142,984146,206149,773153,707158,03116
2,772167,655Other Current
Liabilities1,130,000833,0001,140,00011,600,0001,210,0001,223
,7101,239,8601,258,5381,279,8471,303,9061,330,8521,360,839
1,394,0421,430,6581,470,9071,515,0341,560,485Total Current
Liabilities2,587,0002,538,0002,743,00013,298,0002,717,0002,7
47,7852,784,0502,825,9902,873,8382,927,8622,988,3673,055,7
013,130,2583,212,4783,302,8553,401,9403,503,999Long-Term
Debt4,150,0004,450,0004,720,0004,650,0004,580,0004,631,894
4,693,0244,763,7224,844,3794,935,4465,037,4385,150,9435,27
6,6225,415,2195,567,5655,734,5925,906,630Other
Liabilities460,000512,000560,000562,000563,000569,379576,8
94585,584595,499606,693619,231633,184648,633665,670684,3
97704,929726,077Deferred
Taxes386,000362,000382,000368,000257,000259,912263,34226
7,309271,835276,945282,668289,038296,090303,867312,41632
1,788331,442Total
Liabilities7,583,0007,862,0008,405,00018,878,0008,117,0008,2
08,9718,317,3108,442,6068,585,5528,746,9468,927,7059,128,8
669,351,6039,597,2339,867,23310,163,25010,468,148Minority
Interest00000000000000000Preferred
Stock00000000000000000Paid in Common Capital
(Net)6,510,0006,050,0005,980,00059,900,0005,490,000(46,762,
036)(87,202,551)(128,240,718)(169,962,003)(212,455,687)(255,
815,420)(300,139,824)(345,533,129)(392,105,880)(439,975,690
)(489,268,073)(540,039,228)Retained
Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000
52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,
857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14
5,828547,123,315Total Common
Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005,
555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177,
7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Total
Liabilities and
Equity24,293,00024,792,00025,845,00090,788,00025,937,00013
,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331
15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2
35Error! A =L+E?Statement of Retained EarningsBeg. Retained
Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000
52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,
857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14
5,828+Net
Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764
0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53
545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487-
Common Dividends00000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=End. Retained
Earnings10,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,00052,317,276
92,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,857,047306
,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,145,828547,1
23,315Values for Dupont Analysis and ValuationNet Operating
Income27,602,29739,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,7463
9,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09
644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553,
806Net Financial
Expense310,703333,802342,619349,271335,254335,266339,380
344,177349,686355,936362,962370,805379,510389,129399,717
411,341423,681Net
Income27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,0003
9,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05
844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,
487Effective Tax
Rate(0.0254)(0.0146)(0.0137)(0.0124)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)
(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.00
98)(0.0098)(0.0098)Net Operating
Assets20,954,00021,485,00022,299,00076,670,00022,527,00010
,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210,991,60411,218,749
11,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,38112,771,36313,154,5
04Net Financial
Obligations4,244,0004,555,0004,859,0004,760,0004,707,0004,7
60,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,3025,177,1235,293,7
755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,6086,070,416Total
Common
Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005,
555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177,
7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Raw Data
Inputscut-and-paste raw data block from DataMaker file
hereCompany Name and TickerKOHL'SKSSA Windows vs
Macintosh issue can cause the fiscal year end dates to be off by
roughly 4 years. If this occurs, select and copy the 1462 cell
below, select the cells with the dates, choose Paste Special
Values and select Subtract or Add.Common Shares
Outstanding7,154Fiscal Year End (YYYY-MM-
DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31Sale
s (Net)18,800,00019280000190300001902000019200000Cost of
Goods Sold124000013120000129800001298000013200000R&D
Expense00000SG&A
Expense42400004270000431000043500004450000Depreciation
& Amortization778000833000889000886000934000Interest
Expense303000329000338000345000332000Non-Operating
Income (Loss)1860000156000014000013500001060000Income
Taxes692000575000515000482000384000Minority Interest in
Earnings00000Other Income (Loss)00000Ext. Items & Disc.
Ops.00000Preferred Dividends00000Operating Cash and
Market.
Sec.12100005370009710001410000707000Receivables00025,00
026,000Inventories3200003750000387000038100004040000Oth
er Current Assets371000434000447000452000305000PP&E
(Net)89100008870000875000085200008310000Investments153
000530006400000Intangibles00000Other
Assets261000261000277000218000222000Current
Debt94000105000139000110000127000Accounts
Payable12300001310000137000015100001250000Income Taxes
Payable1330002900009400078000130000Other Current
Liabilities11300008330001140000116000001210000Long-Term
Debt41500004450000472000046500004580000Other
Liabilities460000512000560000562000563000Deferred
Taxes386000362000382000368000257000Minority
Interest00000Preferred Stock00000Paid in Common Capital
(Net)651000060500005980000599000005490000Retained
Earnings1020000010880000114600001201000012330000Comm
on Dividends00000
Jump to Raw Data Input
Ratio AnalysisRatio AnalysisCompany
NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast
ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec
astForecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Annual Growth RatesSales2.6%-1.3%-
0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0
%3.0%Assets23.9%3.4%0.4%-
5.7%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0
%Common Equity1.3%3.0%312.3%-75.2%-
68.8%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0%Ea
rnings43.2%-
4.4%3.2%0.4%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8
%3.0%3.0%Free Cash Flow to Investors0.0%449962.2%-
192.4%0.0%1.3%1.5%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3
.0%Sustainable Growth
Rate222.3%88.2%88.2%342.1%724.5%725.2%725.8%726.4%72
7.1%727.7%728.3%729.0%729.6%730.2%730.2%ProfitabilityR
eturn on
Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717.
2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Return on Equity (b4 non-
recurring)2.2822.2150.8520.8583.3297.0497.0557.0617.0687.07
47.0807.0867.0927.0997.1057.105Return on Net Operating
Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833.
8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Basic Dupont ModelNet Profit
Margin1.4852.0732.0072.0722.0602.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.
0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.059x Total Asset
Turnover1.5341.3461.3201.3691.4191.4201.4211.4231.4241.42
51.4261.4281.4291.4301.4321.432x Total
Leverage1.4591.4731.3051.3011.6982.4782.4782.4782.4782.478
2.4782.4782.4782.4782.4782.478= Return on
Equity4.6413.9803.5713.6704.9627.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717.
2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Advanced Dupont ModelNet
Operating
Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.
0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042x Net Operating Asset
Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90
21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910= Return on Net Operating
Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833.
8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Net Borrowing Cost
(NBC)(0.076)(0.073)(0.073)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071
)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)Sprea
d (RNOA -
NBC)1.9441.8020.8620.8622.4853.9403.9433.9473.9503.9543.9
573.9603.9643.9673.9713.971Financial Leverage
(LEV)0.2620.2740.1080.1060.4050.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.
8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857ROE = RNOA +
LEV*Spread2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.
2717.2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Margin AnalysisGross
Margin1.0661.6801.6821.6821.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.
6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.688EBITDA
Margin1.2911.9021.9091.9111.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.
9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.919EBIT
Margin1.3331.9451.9551.9581.9681.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.
9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.967Net Operating Margin (b4
non-
rec.)1.3671.9741.9821.9821.9871.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.98
61.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.986Net Operating
Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.
0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042Turnover AnalysisNet
Operating Asset
Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90
21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910Net Working Capital
Turnover22.7367.655(7.913)(7.675)7.7617.7687.7757.7827.789
7.7967.8037.8107.8177.8247.8317.831Avge Days to Collect
Receivables0.0000.0000.2400.4850.4920.4910.4910.4900.4900.
4890.4890.4880.4880.4880.4870.487Avge Inventory Holding
Period(56.614)(107.138)(107.982)(108.532)(111.086)(110.985)(
110.883)(110.782)(110.681)(110.581)(110.481)(110.382)(110.2
83)(110.184)(110.085)(110.085)Avge Days to Pay
Payables(47.838)(38.033)(40.307)(38.836)(34.489)(34.477)(34.
464)(34.452)(34.440)(34.428)(34.416)(34.404)(34.391)(34.379)
(34.367)(34.367)PP&E
Turnover2.1692.1602.2032.2822.3232.3262.3282.3302.3322.33
42.3362.3382.3402.3432.3452.345Analysis of Leverage- Long-
Term Capital StructureDebt to Equity
Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8
570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total
Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30
08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total
Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2
928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term
LiquidityCurrent
Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8
691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick
Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2
700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest
Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04
1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11
5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest
Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24
8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11
2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Fiscal
Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222
0232024202520262027
Cash Flow AnalysisCash Flow Analysis($000)Company
NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualForecastForecastForeca
stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFor
ecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/312012/12/31201
3/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/31
2019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/31Pro
Forma Statement of Cash FlowsOperating:Net
Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764
0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53
545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487+Depre
ciation &
Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9
38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0
49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Increase
in Deferred
Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1
105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654+Increase in Other
Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194
12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+Minority
Interest in Earnings0000000000000000+Preferred
Dividends0000000000000000=Funds From
Operations39,162,00037,381,00038,515,00038,516,00039,068,9
9539,585,82340,183,39040,864,99541,634,45142,496,12143,45
4,96044,516,55945,687,19946,973,91548,384,56549,836,102-
Increase in
Receivables00(25,000)(1,000)(295)(347)(401)(458)(517)(579)(6
44)(713)(787)(865)(948)(977)-Increase in
Inventory(3,430,000)(120,000)60,000(230,000)(45,776)(53,922)
(62,363)(71,147)(80,329)(89,967)(100,122)(110,861)(122,255)(
134,384)(147,334)(151,754)-Increase in Other Current
Assets(63,000)(13,000)(5,000)147,000(3,456)(4,071)(4,708)(5,3
71)(6,064)(6,792)(7,559)(8,369)(9,230)(10,145)(11,123)(11,457
)+Increase in Accounts
Payable80,00060,000140,000(260,000)14,16316,68419,29522,0
1324,85427,83630,97834,30137,82741,57945,58646,954+Increa
se in Taxes
Payable157,000(196,000)(16,000)52,0001,4731,7352,0072,2892
,5852,8953,2223,5673,9344,3244,7414,883+Increase in Other
Curr.
Liabilities(297,000)307,00010,460,000(10,390,000)13,71016,15
018,67821,30924,05926,94629,98733,20336,61640,24944,12745
,451=Cash From
Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8
1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41
0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202Inv
esting:-Capital
Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0
37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4
68834,990860,040-Increase in
Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of
Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other
Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41
4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)=Cash
From
Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482
0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382
6,894851,701Financing:+Increase in
Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89
393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808
-Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000-
Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in
Pref. Stock0000000000000000-Dividends Paid on
Common0000000000000000+/-Net Issuance of Common
Stock(460,000)(70,000)53,920,000(54,410,000)(52,252,036)(40,
440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,285)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44,
324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,751)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50,
771,155)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Cash From
Financing(39,436,000)(37,388,000)14,958,000(93,703,000)(52,1
98,703)(40,377,690)(40,965,508)(41,638,392)(42,400,092)(43,2
54,913)(44,207,751)(45,264,142)(46,430,311)(47,713,239)(49,1
20,725)(50,594,346)Net Change in
Cash(2,854,000)1,013,00065,326,000(64,729,000)(12,318,989)9
,43610,91312,45114,05815,74417,52119,40121,39523,51725,78
326,557+ Beginning Cash
Balance1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724,
447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859,
447885,231= Ending Cash
Balance(1,644,000)1,550,00066,297,000(63,319,000)(11,611,98
9)724,447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,9
30859,447885,231911,788Free Cash Flow to Common
EquityNet
Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764
0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53
545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487-
Increase in Common
Equity(220,000)(510,000)(54,470,000)54,090,00012,264,761(73
,316)(84,792)(96,735)(109,220)(122,324)(136,132)(150,732)(16
6,225)(182,716)(200,323)(206,333)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common
Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,
51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3
93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Computation
based on SCF:+Cash From
Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8
1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41
0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202-
Increase in
Cash2,854,000(1,013,000)(65,326,000)64,729,00012,318,989(9,
436)(10,913)(12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395)
(23,517)(25,783)(26,557)+Cash From
Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482
0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382
6,894851,701+Increase in
Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89
393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808
-Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000-
Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in
Preferred Stock0000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common
Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,
51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3
93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Financing
Flows:+Dividends Paid0000000000000000-Net Issuance of
Common
Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5
1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39
3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155= Free Cash
Flow to Common
Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,
51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3
93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Free Cash
Flow to all InvestorsNet Operating
Income39,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,74639,652,0104
0,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09644,089,73
045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553,806-
Increase in Net Operating
Assets(531,000)(814,000)(54,371,000)54,143,00012,211,427(13
6,141)(157,450)(179,629)(202,812)(227,145)(252,784)(279,896)
(308,665)(339,287)(371,981)(383,141)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437
40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9
4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Comp
utation based on SCF:Cash From
Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8
1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41
0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202-
Increase in Operating
Cash673,000(434,000)(439,000)703,000(8,011)(9,436)(10,913)(
12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395)(23,517)(25,7
83)(26,557)+Cash from
Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482
0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382
6,894851,701+Interest
Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08
5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38
5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on
Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39
4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+/-
Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0
38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464
4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Financing
Flows:+Dividends on Common
Stock0000000000000000+Interest
Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08
5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38
5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on
Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39
4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+Di
vidends on Preferred Stock0000000000000000+Dividends Paid
to Minority Interest0000000000000000-Net Issuance of
Common
Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5
1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39
3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155-Net Issuance
of
Debt(311,000)(304,000)99,00053,000(53,333)(62,825)(72,659)(
82,893)(93,592)(104,821)(116,652)(129,164)(142,440)(156,571)
(171,658)(176,808)-Net Issuance of Preferred
Stock0000000000000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437
40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9
4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Tradit
ional Computation of
FCF:EBIT37,503,00037,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10
638,698,32839,280,43039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469,
62143,504,89944,646,63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055-
Taxes on
EBIT570,198510,381477,729380,746384,893389,964395,83040
2,524410,082418,547427,969438,402449,908462,555476,42249
0,714+Increase in Deferred
Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1
105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654=
NOPLAT38,049,19837,739,38137,699,72938,053,74638,582,91
139,091,72339,680,22740,351,67241,109,81341,958,94942,903,
95943,950,35345,104,32046,372,79447,763,51849,196,423+Dep
reciation &
Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9
38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0
49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Non-
Operating Income
(Loss)1,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,0101,086,158
1,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,221,2271,25
3,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037+Other Income
(Loss)0000000000000000+Ext. Items & Disc.
Ops.0000000000000000=Gross Cash
Flow38,776,19836,990,38138,163,72938,179,74638,727,35039,
238,92939,830,52240,505,39441,267,32042,120,62243,070,203
44,121,59945,281,03346,555,47147,952,69249,391,273-
Increase in Working
Capital(2,880,000)(396,000)10,175,000(9,979,000)(28,191)(33,
208)(38,405)(43,815)(49,470)(55,406)(61,659)(68,273)(75,290)
(82,760)(90,734)(93,456)-Capital
Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0
37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4
68834,990860,040-Increase in
Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of
Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other
Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41
4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)+Increase
in Other
Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194
12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+/-Clean Surplus
Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0
38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464
4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Analysis
of Earnings Quality(Red Shading = Quality Flag)Current Op.
Accruals/NOA0.180(0.002)(0.498)0.1420.0010.0020.0030.0030.
0040.0040.0040.0050.0050.0050.0060.006+ Non-Current Op.
Accruals/NOA(0.009)(0.008)(0.016)(0.001)0.0040.0110.0120.0
140.0150.0170.0180.0200.0210.0230.0240.024= Operating
Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170.
0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Sales
Growth0.026(0.013)(0.001)0.0090.0110.0130.0150.0170.0190.0
210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030- NOA Turnover
Growth0.0350.0322.531(0.713)(0.565)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0
000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)-
Interaction0.001(0.000)(0.001)(0.007)(0.006)0.0000.0000.0000.
0000.0000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)= Operating
Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170.
0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Fiscal
Year2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232
024202520262027
Credit AnalysisCredit AnalysisCompany
NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast
ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec
astForecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Analysis of Leverage- Long-Term Capital StructureDebt to
Equity
Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8
570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total
Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30
08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total
Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2
928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term
LiquidityCurrent
Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8
691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick
Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2
700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest
Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04
1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11
5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest
Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24
8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11
2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Analysis of Credit
RiskNet Income to Total
Assets2.4872.8742.6572.7302.9072.9052.9052.9052.9052.9052.
9052.9052.9052.9042.9042.9042.904implied default
probability2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0
%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Total Liabilities to Total
Assets0.6760.5650.5851.3080.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.
5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.596implied default
probability5.5%4.5%4.5%10.0%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.
5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%Quick
Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2
700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270implied default
probability6.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0
%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%EBIT to Interest
Expense(82.70)(113.99)(110.09)(107.93)(113.81)(115.04)(115.1
4)(115.25)(115.35)(115.45)(115.55)(115.66)(115.76)(115.86)(1
15.96)(116.06)(116.06)implied default
probability7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5
%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Inventory Holding Period-
94.19-104.33-108.83-107.14-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-
111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-
111.71implied default
probability3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0
%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Annual Sales Growth0.0%2.6%-
1.3%-
0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0
%3.0%implied default
probability4.2%3.2%4.2%4.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2
%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%Average Implied Default
Probability4.8%4.9%5.0%6.0%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.
9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%Fiscal
Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222
0232024202520262027Lookup Table of default
probabilitydecile 1min decile 2min decile 3min decile 4min
decile 5min decile 6min decile 7min decile 8min decile 9min
decile 10NI to TA thresholds-0.448-0.161-
0.0490.0010.0220.0380.0560.0790.118NI to TA default
rates0.0830.080.0720.0550.0450.0300.0250.0200.0200.020TL to
TA
thresholds0.1750.2830.3850.4760.5580.6330.7090.8161.030TL
to TA default
rates0.020.0220.0250.0300.0350.0450.0550.0700.0900.100Quic
k Ratio
thresholds0.3820.5220.8090.9941.2001.4701.8902.5304.550Qui
ck Ratio default
rates0.090.0650.050.0420.0400.0350.0250.0200.0150.010EBIT
to Int thresholds-17.4-3.6-
0.1391.252.2103.3805.2109.16023.800EBIT to Int default
rates0.0750.090.0850.0700.0500.0300.0210.0180.0150.010Inv
Holding
thresholds0.3652.5614.2431.395070.08091.980121.540174.470I
nv Holding default
rates0.030.0350.0390.0400.0420.0450.0490.0550.0600.070Sales
Growth thresholds-0.203-
0.0630.0030.050.0980.1580.2440.3980.797Sales Growth default
rates0.0690.0550.0420.0320.0300.0300.0320.0420.0500.065
Forecasting AssumptionsForecasting AssumptionsCompany
NameKOHL'STERMINALEstimated
Price/Share=$83,726.48YEARActualActualActualActualActualF
orecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca
stForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Implied Return on
Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717.
2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Income Statement
AssumptionsSales Growth2.6%-1.3%-
0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0
%3.0%Cost of Goods Sold/Sales-6.6%-68.0%-68.2%-68.2%-
68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-
68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-
68.8%R&D/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%SG&A/Sales-22.6%-
22.1%-22.6%-22.9%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-
23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-
23.2%Dep&Amort/Avge PP&E and Intang.-9.4%-10.1%-10.3%-
11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-
11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%Net Interest Expense/Avge Net
Debt-7.5%-7.2%-7.2%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-
7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%Non-Operating
Income/Sales9.9%8.1%0.7%7.1%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%
5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%Effective Tax Rate-2.5%-
1.5%-1.4%-1.2%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-
1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%Minority Interest/After Tax
Income0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Other
Income/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ext. Items & Disc.
Ops./Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Pref. Dividends/Avge Pref.
Stock0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Balance Sheet AssumptionsWorking
Capital AssumptionsEnding Operating
Cash/Sales6.4%2.8%5.1%7.4%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7
%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%Ending
Receivables/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0
.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Ending
Inventories/COGS-25.8%-28.6%-29.8%-29.4%-30.6%-30.6%-
30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-
30.6%-30.6%Ending Other Current
Assets/Sales2.0%2.3%2.3%2.4%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1
.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%Ending Accounts
Payable/COGS-99.2%-10.0%-10.6%-11.6%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-
9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-
9.5%Ending Taxes
Payable/Sales0.7%1.5%0.5%0.4%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%
0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%Ending Other Current
Liabs/Sales6.0%4.3%6.0%61.0%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6
.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%Other Operating Asset
AssumptionsEnding Net
PP&E/Sales47.4%46.0%46.0%44.8%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43
.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%Ending
Investments/Sales0.8%0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending
Intangibles/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.
0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending Other
Assets/Sales1.4%1.4%1.5%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1
.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%Other Operating Liability
AssumptionsOther
Liabilities/Sales2.4%2.7%2.9%3.0%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.
9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%Deferred
Taxes/Sales2.1%1.9%2.0%1.9%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.
3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%Financing AssumptionsCurrent
Debt/Total
Assets0.8%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.
9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%Long-Term Debt/Total
Assets37.0%32.0%32.8%32.2%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%3
3.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%Minority
Interest/Total
Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.
0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Preferred Stock/Total
Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.
0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Dividend Payout
Ratio0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Valuation ParametersValuation ParametersEstimated
Price/Share=$83,726.48Company Name:KOHL'SRequired
Valuation Parameters (to compute value of common
equity):Enter Cost of Equity Capital:10.00%Enter Value of
Contingent Claims on Common Equity ($000):0Enter Date of
Valuation:2012/06/20Enter Dilution Factor for Splits Occurring
Since Latest Fiscal Year End:1.00Optional Valuation
Parameters (to compute value to all investors):Enter Cost of Net
Debt:8.00%Enter Cost of Preferred Stock:9.00%Enter Cost of
Minority Interest:10.00%Adjust the Weighted Average Cost of
Capital Input9.3720%upsuch that the two equity values below
are approximately equal:Equity Value computed directlyEquity
Value computed indirectlyapproximate weighted averagefrom
flows to equityholders:as the Entity Value less non-equity
claims:cost of capital to use as starting
point:83726.4891973.4510.03%
Residual Income ValuationsResidual Income
Valuation($000)Company NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal
Year End12/31/11Date of Valuation6/20/12Cost of Common
Equity10.00%Teriminal Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of
Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31
2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12
/312023/12/31(53,655,643)Valuation to Common EquityNet
Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044
3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70
650,977,487Common Equity at Beginning of
Year17,820,0005,555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,30
26,041,6266,177,7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,754Res
idual
Income38,205,27639,958,30740,560,10341,246,68642,021,8964
2,890,12843,856,37244,926,26246,106,12747,403,05548,824,96
350,289,712Present Value of Residual
Income34,732,06933,023,39430,473,40628,172,04126,092,2912
4,210,35922,505,25420,958,43319,553,49918,275,93017,112,85
216,023,852Present Value Beyond 10 Years268,916,240Present
Value of First 10 Years257,996,674Common Equity as
of12/31/1117,820,000Forecast Equity Value Before Time
Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date598,979,234Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity598,979,234Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,726.48Valuation to All
InvestorsCost of Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred Stock9.00%Cost
of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted Average Cost of
Capital9.37%Net Interest Expense to Net
Debtholders(332,012)(336,085)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(35
9,439)(367,206)(375,826)(385,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)
Beginning Book Value of
Debt4,707,0004,760,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,302
5,177,1235,293,7755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,608Resi
dual Interest
Expense(708,572)(716,912)(726,689)(737,957)(750,778)(765,22
3)(781,376)(799,328)(819,186)(841,068)(865,104)(891,057)Pres
ent Value of Residual Interest
Income(656,085)(614,636)(576,869)(542,420)(510,967)(482,22
0)(455,925)(431,852)(409,797)(389,577)(371,028)(353,851)Val
ue of Debt(8,377,562)Dividends to Preferred
Stockholders000000000000Beginning Book Value of Preferred
Stock000000000000Residual Income to Preferred
Stock000000000000Present Value of Preferred Residual
Income000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Minority
Interest in Earnings000000000000Beginning Book Value of
Minority Interest000000000000Residual Income to Minority
Interest000000000000Present Value of MI Residual
Income000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Net Operating
Income39,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,9684
3,119,09644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36
550,553,806Beginning Net Operating
Assets22,527,00010,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210
,991,60411,218,74911,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,381
12,771,363Residual Income to all
Investors37,540,77939,207,67639,799,24640,474,04341,235,84
242,088,96343,038,30944,089,41645,248,50346,522,53747,919,
29549,356,874Present Value of Residual Investor
Income34,323,93932,776,21430,419,80228,284,72626,347,7852
4,588,45822,988,57921,532,03720,204,53418,993,36217,887,21
516,845,108Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of
Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of
Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time
Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date657,978,085Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity657,978,085Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,973.45
DCF ValuationsDCF Valuations($000)Company
NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End12/31/11Date of
Valuation6/20/12Cost of Common Equity10.00%Terminal
Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of
Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31
2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12
/312023/12/31-53655642.8830Valuation to Common EquityFree
Cash Flow to Common
Equity52,252,03640,440,51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443
,359,73444,324,40445,393,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,383
50,771,155Present Value of
FCF47,501,85133,421,91330,832,58228,496,19926,385,23424,4
75,43922,745,42821,176,31219,751,39318,455,88417,276,6801
6,177,255Present Value Beyond 10 Years271,490,679Present
Value of First 10 Years273,242,235Forecast Equity Value
Before Time Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date598,979,234Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity598,979,234Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,726.48Valuation to All
InvestorsCost of Net Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred
Stock9.00%Cost of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted
Average Cost of Capital9.37%Free Cash Flow to
Debt(385,345)(398,910)(413,495)(429,185)(446,073)(464,260)(
483,858)(504,990)(527,791)(552,409)(579,007)(596,377)Presen
t Value of FCF to
Debt(356,801)(342,001)(328,246)(315,464)(303,590)(292,562)(
282,327)(272,831)(264,027)(255,872)(248,326)(236,829)Value
of Debt(8,377,562)Free Cash Flow to Preferred
Stock000000000000Present Value of FCF to Preferred
Stock000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Free Cash Flow to
Minority Interest000000000000Present Value of FCF to
Minority Interest000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Free
Cash Flows to
Investors51,863,43740,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15
642,891,95143,836,94644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,
38450,170,665Present Value of FCF to
Investors47,419,30033,470,59531,048,14728,854,04226,864,25
925,057,56623,415,16521,920,39820,558,48419,316,29118,182,
13817,122,848Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of Net
Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of
Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time
Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date657,978,085Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity657,978,085Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,973.45
EPS ForecasterEPS Forecaster($000, except per share
amounts)Company NameKOHL'SCommon Shares Outstanding
at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecasted Price at Valuation
Date$83,726.48ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca
stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year
of
Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31
2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12
/312023/12/31Net
Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044
3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70
650,977,487Common Equity Issued
(Repurchased)(52,252,036)(40,440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,28
5)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44,324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,75
1)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50,771,155)Forecasted Price at
Year
End$88,145.38$96,959.91$106,655.91$117,321.50$129,053.65$
141,959.01$156,154.91$171,770.40$188,947.44$207,842.19$22
8,626.41$251,489.05New Shares Issued
(Repurchased)(593)(417)(385)(356)(329)(305)(284)(264)(246)(
230)(216)(202)Shares Outstanding at End of
Year6,5616,1445,7595,4045,0744,7694,4854,2213,9743,7443,52
93,327Forecast
EPS$5,831.09$6,377.46$6,909.41$7,492.20$8,131.72$8,834.69
$9,608.73$10,462.58$11,406.24$12,451.21$13,610.72$14,872.8
1Consensus Analyst Forecast of EPSForecast Five Year Growth
Rate in EPS9%Consensus Analyst Forecast of Growth RateTo
obtain analyst forecasts, click here
Although not a necessary input for eVal, we recommend that
you find the analyst forecasts for your company and store them
in the yellow-shaded cells for comparison purposes.
Model SummaryModel SummaryHistorical Data
For:KOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End:2011/12/31Average
ROE (last five years)159.08%Sales Growth (last five
years)0.53%Forecast Data:Forecast Horizon10 yearsThis Year's
ROE342.13%Terminal Year's ROE730.24%This Year's Sales
Growth1.13%Terminal Year's Sales Growth3.00%This Year's
Forecast EPS$5,831.09Forecast 5 Year EPS
Growth8.66%Valuation Data:Cost of Equity
Capital10.00%Valuation Date2012/06/20Estimated
Price/Share$83,726.48Estimated Price/Earnings
Ratio14.36Estimated Market/Book Ratio33.61

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A Progressive Digital Media businessCOMPANY PROFILEKoh.docx

  • 1. A Progressive Digital Media business COMPANY PROFILE Kohl's Corporation REFERENCE CODE: A8F67F35-6EB7-483C-9771- E3C4AA08E107 PUBLICATION DATE: 14 Jan 2016 www.marketline.com COPYRIGHT MARKETLINE. THIS CONTENT IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED OR DISTRIBUTED. TABLE OF CONTENTS Company Overview................................................................................ ..............3 Key Facts.................................................................................... ... ........................3 SWOT Analysis.................................................................................. ...................4 Kohl's Corporation Page 2 © MarketLine
  • 2. Kohl's Corporation TABLE OF CONTENTS COMPANY OVERVIEW Kohl's Corporation (Kohl's or 'the company') operates specialty department stores in the US. The department stores offer national and private label brands in various product categories, including apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty and home products. The company is headquartered in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin and employed about 137,000 people as of January 31, 2015, of whom 105,000 were part-time employees. The company recorded revenues of $19,023 million in the financial year ended January 2015 (FY2015), registering a marginal decrease compared to FY2014. The operating profit of the company was $1,689 million in FY2015, a decrease of 3% compared to FY2014. The net profit was $867 million in FY2015, a decrease of 2.5% compared to FY2014. KEY FACTS Kohl's CorporationHead Office N56 W17000 Ridgewood Drive Menomonee Falls Wisconsin 53051 USA 1 262 703 7000Phone
  • 3. Fax http://www.kohlscorporation.comWeb Address 19,023.0Revenue / turnover (USD Mn) JanuaryFinancial Year End 137,000Employees KSSNew York Ticker Kohl's Corporation Page 3 © MarketLine Kohl's Corporation Company Overview SWOT ANALYSIS Kohl's operates specialty department stores in the US. It is the exclusive US retailer for a number of brands, including Food Network, Jennifer Lopez, Marc Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply Vera Vera Wang. The strategy of focusing on expanding its exclusive brands offering drives the increase in customer base and consequently the top line growth as each of its exclusive brands enjoy strong customer loyalty. A strong portfolio of exclusive brands provides a competitive advantage to the company thereby strengthening its market position. However, intense competition could have an adverse impact on the company's sales and profitability.
  • 4. WeaknessesStrengths Concentrated geographic presence and limited product selection Differentiating itself through exclusive brand offerings Strong omni-channel presence ThreatsOpportunities Intense competitionIncreasing preference to shop online Increasing labor costs in the USGrowing apparel market in the US Growing demand for private label brands Strengths Differentiating itself through exclusive brand offerings Kohl's is the exclusive US retailer for a number of brands such as Food Network, Jennifer Lopez, Marc Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply Vera Vera Wang. Other than licensing agreements, the company also partners with popular designers and celebrities in order to feature their designed garments at its stores. For instance, in 2013, the company partnered with various designers including Catherine Malandrino, Derek Lam and Peter Som for its DesigNation limited-edition collection. Kohl's launched the Derek Lam for DesigNation limited-edition collection featuring misses' apparel and swimwear at Kohl's stores and Kohls.com in 2013. Catherine Malandrino for DesigNation collection
  • 5. featuring dresses, skirts, pants, shirts, sweaters and outerwear was made available at Kohl's stores nationwide and at Kohls.com in 2013. In FY2014, the company launched an assortment of over 20 new national beauty and fragrance brands in over 250 stores and on-line. In April 2014, Kohl's and Disney announced a Disney-branded apparel collection for kids under the Jumping Beans brand, exclusively at Kohl's stores and at Kohls.com. In September 2014, Kohl's announced a partnership with MILLY by Michelle Smith to launch its DesigNation limited-edition collection. The capsule collection features women apparel. In the same month, the company announced the availability of Elie Tahari for DesigNation collection at Kohl's stores nationwide and on Kohls.com. Kohl's Corporation Page 4 © MarketLine Kohl's Corporation SWOT Analysis Kohl’s announced the availability of Gaiam women’s apparel collection at Kohl’s stores nationwide and on Kohls.com, in April 2015. In August 2015, the company, in partnership with actress and fitness enthusiast, Shay Mitchell, introduced ‘Fit to Wander’ athleisure apparel collection at Kohl’s stores and on Kohls.com. Kohl’s announced the availability of Thakoon for DesigNation collection at Kohl's stores nationwide and on Kohls.com, in September 2015. In October 2015, the company announced the availability of Madden Girl collection at Kohl’s
  • 6. stores and on Kohls.com. The collection includes cold weather boots, accessories and outerwear. The strategy of focusing on expanding its exclusive brands offering drives the increase in customer base and consequently the top line growth as each of its exclusive brands enjoy strong customer loyalty. In addition, the private and exclusive brands, which have higher gross margin rate than national brands, will increase the profitability for Kohl's. A strong portfolio of exclusive brands therefore provides a competitive advantage to the company and helps in strengthening its market position. Strong omni-channel presence Kohl’s follows an omni-channel strategy, which involves integration of stores, internet and mobile devices in order to meet the needs of customers as well as to deploy all of the company's inventory. Through this strategy, the company’s stores can increase online sales by providing customers opportunities to view, touch and/or try on physical merchandise before they order online; customers can return online purchases at the company’s stores, as well as earn and redeem Kohl's Cash coupons and Yes2You rewards online or in store irrespective of where they were earned; and in-store customers can order from online kiosks in its stores. This strategy also helps the customers who utilize the company’s mobile application while in the store to receive mobile coupons that can be used when they check out. They can also order online and pick- up in store in approximately 100 stores. Further in September 2015, Kohl’s introduced a new omnichannel and digital initiative to
  • 7. deliver an easy shopping experience to its customers. These initiatives include a store mode for Kohl’s mobile application, enhanced mobile payment options like Apple Pay, a continuous omnichannel shopping bag across platforms, and visa checkout on Kohls.com and on mobile. Kohl’s will also pilot same-day delivery in selected markets. Therefore, increasing focus on omni-channel approach will help in presenting and selling its brands and collections to its customers in an efficient manner, in both the online and offline channels. This approach further helps in increasing Kohl’s market penetration across various segments of customers. Weaknesses Concentrated geographic presence and limited product selection Kohl's is completely dependent on the US economy for its revenue generation. In comparison, its competitors such as The Gap and Wal-Mart Stores have operations in countries outside the US as well. The Gap derived 23% of its revenues from non-US regions (7% from Canada and 16% from other foreign countries) in FY2015. Wal-Mart Stores, which operates in the US and other international Kohl's Corporation Page 5 © MarketLine Kohl's Corporation SWOT Analysis
  • 8. markets, derived 28.2% of its revenue from international markets during the same period. Diversified business operations allow these companies to reduce their business risk by limiting exposure to fluctuations in economic factors in a particular region. In addition, the company offers a limited product selection as compared to its peers. Sears Holdings’ product assortment includes apparel, toys, home fashion products, outdoor living products, consumer electronics, home appliances, footwear, grocery, sporting goods, health and beauty products, tires and batteries, and jewelry and accessories among others. Kohl's, in comparison, offers an assortment of apparel, footwear, accessories, soft home products such as sheets and pillows, and housewares. Thus, concentrated geographic presence makes Kohl's vulnerable to fluctuations in the US economy which, in turn, could adversely impact its top-line growth. In addition, the company's limited product selection restricts its potential to compete against companies with diversified product offerings. Opportunities Increasing preference to shop online Online shopping in the US has witnessed strong growth over the last few years. According to the US Department of Commerce, online retail sales (adjusted for seasonal variation) in the US increased from $169.3 billion in 2010 to $297.2 billion in 2014, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.1%. e-commerce sales increased 14.4% in 2014 over the previous year. Total retail
  • 9. sales, on the other hand, grew by only 3.6% during 2014. e- commerce sales accounted for 6.4% of total retail sales in 2014, compared to 4.4% in 2010. Furthermore, e-commerce sales for the third quarter of 2015 totaled $87.5 billion, an increase of 15.1% compared to the third quarter of 2014. Kohl's has a strong presence in the online retail format. The company markets a range of product categories through its e-commerce site www.kohls.com.The website offers a selection of items and categories beyond what is available in stores. The website primarily focuses on offering extended sizes, product line extensions and web-exclusive product lines. The company also operates four e-commerce fulfillment centers to distribute purchases made through its e-commerce site. By leveraging its existing platform, the company can capitalize on the growing trend to shop online and also expand customer base. Growing apparel market in the US The apparel industry has witnessed a decline in the last few years as the demand declined due to several factors, including the economic slowdown and the fluctuations in the raw material prices which led to an increase in the prices. However, with the economic condition in developed markets improving leading to an increase in consumer spending, the apparel market is expected to perform well in the next few years. According to MarketLine, the US accounts for 28.5% of the global apparel retail industry value. The apparel retail industry in the US grew by 1.9% in 2014 to reach a value of $375.1 billion. Womenswear was the largest segment of the
  • 10. apparel retail industry in the US for the Kohl's Corporation Page 6 © MarketLine Kohl's Corporation SWOT Analysis same period, accounting for 51% of the industry's total value. By 2019, the US apparel retail industry is forecast to have a value of $457.6 billion, an increase of 22% since 2014. Kohl's sells apparel for women, men and children under national, exclusive and private label brands at all its stores. During FY2015, the women's and men's business lines accounted for 30% and 20% of the company's revenues, respectively, a significant portion of which is apparel sales. With apparel market in the US growing, Kohl's is well positioned to generate revenues from its product offering. Growing demand for private label brands Demand for private label products has been growing in the US since last few years. These products provide customers with an attractive alternative to higher-priced national brands. Instead of buying expensive brands, consumers across the industry are turning to generic and private label products. Even upper-income shoppers are more willing to buy store brands, which has traditionally appealed more to shoppers with limited budgets. According to industry estimates, among all major US retail
  • 11. channels, private label sales increased by approximately 3% in 2014, whereas national brands sales grew by nearly 1% during the same period. In supermarkets, unit and dollar shares increased to nearly 23% and 20%, respectively. The company offers a wide range of products under its private labels such as Apt. 9, Croft & Barrow, Jumping Beans, SO and Sonoma Life + Style. The change in customer preference and strong inclination towards private label products will enable Kohl’s to increase the sales of its own branded products. As these products have higher margins they will contribute to a strong bottom line. Threats Intense competition The retail industry in the US is highly competitive. Kohl's competes with traditional department stores, upscale mass merchandisers, off-price retailers, internet and catalog businesses, specialty stores and other forms of retail commerce. The key competitive factors include style, quality, price, merchandise mix, brands, service, customer experience and convenience. The company competes directly with larger retail players such as Target, Wal-Mart Stores and Sears Holdings in many of the markets it operates. These retailers have large market presence and larger economies of scale, which provide greater power to negotiate for better margins with vendors. Therefore, the company will have to constantly differentiate itself from its competitors through efficient and in trend merchandising, and attractive promotional programs in order to
  • 12. retain its market share; otherwise, intense competition could drive away its potential and existing customers which could result in drop in its revenues and profit margins. Increasing labor costs in the US Kohl's Corporation Page 7 © MarketLine Kohl's Corporation SWOT Analysis Tight labor markets, increased overtime, government mandated increases in minimum wages and a higher proportion of full-time employees have resulted in an increase in labor costs for many of the employers. The federal minimum wage rate in the US, which remained at $5.15 per hour since 1998, increased to $5.85 per hour in 2008. It further increased to $6.55 per hour in 2009 and to $7.25 per hour in 2010. Many states and municipalities in the country have minimum wage rates even higher than the federal minimum wage rate due to the higher cost of living. For instance, in California, the minimum wage rate increased from $9 in 2015 to $10 in 2016; in Connecticut, the minimum wage rate grew from $9.15 in 2015 to $9.6 in 2016. The minimum wage rate increased from $8.23 in 2015 to $8.31 in 2016 in Colorado. Similarly, in Alaska, the minimum wage rate increased from $8.75 in 2015 to $9.75 in 2016; in Arkansas, it increased from $7.5 in 2015 to $8 in 2016; and in Massachusetts, the minimum wage rate increased
  • 13. from $9 in 2015 to $10 in 2016. Kohl's employed about 137,000 people as of January 31, 2015. Rising labor costs can increase the company's operating cost and adversely impact its margins. Kohl's Corporation Page 8 © MarketLine Kohl's Corporation SWOT Analysis Copyright of Kohl's Corporation SWOT Analysis is the property of MarketLine, a Progressive Digital Media business and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. RUNNING HEAD: DCF VALUATION and EVA & MVA ASSIGNMENT 3 DCF VALUATION AND EVA & MVA ASSIGNMENT DCF Valuation and EVA & MVA Assignment –
  • 14. The Coca Cola Company I. Introduction Some of the valuation measures used by investors to analyze whether or not it is beneficial to invest in a company are the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation, the Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA) Analysis. The Coca Cola Company (KO) has been one of the leading bottled beverage producers for decades but has been facing declining sales due to a more health-conscious consumer market in the most recent years. These declining sales and increased interest expenses due to increased liabilities after a majority acquisition of shares in Green Mountain Beverage Co. resulted only in acceptable, but not too promising future financial performance forecasts for KO in the eVal Model. This paper will analyze whether KO is still a good investment choice through a DCF Valuation and whether the company is able to create shareholder wealth or destroys it through an EVA and MVA analysis. II. Explanation of the Variables Used in the DCF Valuation The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation analyzes future cash flow estimates and discounts these with a discount rate to create a present value for the predicted future cash flows. The DCF valuation evaluates the potential for investment. If the
  • 15. value of the DCF valuation is greater than the cost of the investment it is considered a good stock pick (Damodaran, n.d.). The variables used in the DCF valuation include: Cost of Equity (calculated with the CAPM) and Cost of Net Debt (based on KO’s SEC 10K), which result in the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) that will be used as the discount rate in the DCF valuation. KO does not have any preferred stock outstanding; thus the value is 0% in this model. Furthermore, the terminal growth rate is important in the DCF valuation to determine the future cash flow estimates. The Coca Cola Company has a Cost of Common Equity of 6%. The input for the CAPM formula are the risk-free rate of 1.76% based on the rate of the 10-year treasury bond as of 2/19/15 (Yahoo! Finance, 2016), the market risk premium, which is according to average historic rates 5.5% and the beta coefficient of KO of 0.77 (Yahoo! Finance, 2016). The Cost of Equity was calculated with the CAPM Formula: Cost of Equity = Risk-free Rate + Market Risk Premium * Beta of KO = 1.76% + 5.5% * 0.77 = 5.995% or approximately 6%. The Cost of Debt is based on interest rates on short- and long- term debt stated in the company’s SEC 10K. According to KO’s SEC 10K, the company’s average cost of debt for short-term debt is 1.2% and the average cost for long-term debt is 2.2% (Coca Cola, 2015). Weighted by the amount of short- and long- term debt outstanding this results in an average cost of debt of 1.65%. However, entering a value lower than 4% into the eVal Model led to invalid results, thus the cost of debt for the purpose of this analysis was entered as 4% in the eVal Model, the lowest valid cost of debt. KO has a corporate tax rate of 23.60% according to the company’s SEC 10K (Coca Cola, 2015). Based on these inputs, the adjusted WACC is 9.73%. WACC is calculated with the following formula: WACC = (weight of equity * cost of equity) + (weight of debt *
  • 16. cost of debt) * (1-tax rate) (Clayman et al., 2012). The last input factor needed for the DCF Valuation is the terminal growth rate, which is 3% for KO. The Coca Cola Company is a stable company and therefore does not expect large growth as a technology firm would, but marginal growth. A positive growth rate signals the company is expected to be able to improve its performance from the previous years by further diversifying its product portfolio through strategic acquisitions like the partnership with Green Mountain Beverage Company. Entering the above presented variables in the DCF Valuation in the eVal Model led to the results discussed in the following section. III. Explanation and Interpretation of DCF Valuation Results The DCF Valuation in the eVal Model can be used to calculate the intrinsic value of a company and therefore determine whether shares are currently selling over- or undervalued. If the intrinsic value is larger than the current market price the shares are selling undervalued and it is a good investment. When the intrinsic value is less than the current market price, shares are overvalued and are not a recommended investment (Investopedia, 2003). The DCF Valuation for KO results in a Forecasted Value of $196,556,842,000. Since the Value of Contingent Equity Claims is 0, the Value Attributable to Common Equity is $196,556,842,000. This aligns with the currently stated Market Cap of $190.36bn (Yahoo! Finance, 2016) considering a terminal growth rate of 3%. Dividing this value by the common shares outstanding, 4,366 million, the DCF Valuation forecasts a Price per Share of $45.03. On February 19, 2016 the current market price per share at the NYSE for KO was $43.77. This means the intrinsic value of KO calculated with the DCF Valuation is larger than the market price, which indicates that shares are currently selling undervalued. Considering a positive terminal growth rate and the shares selling at a lower price than the intrinsic value KO is a good investment choice.
  • 17. IV. Explanation of the Data Used for the EVA Analysis and Interpretation of Results The Economic Value Added (EVA) is used to measure the economic value added by management during a given year (EVA & MVA Model, n.d.). The formula for EVA is: EVA = Net Operating Profit After Tax – (WACC * Invested Capital). The EVA considers Invested Capital as the sum of short- & long-term debt and shareholder equity. The Net Operating Profit is calculated by decreasing the operating income by the estimated income taxes of the company. The WACC calculation has been explained in the DCF Valuation section. Entering KO’s 2014 values from the company’s financial statements into the EVA Model for short-term debt ($22,682,000), long-term debt ($19,063,000), common stock ($1,760,000) and Retained Earnings (63,408,000), Total Invested Capital of $109,519,000 is calculated. Data for the current price of stock ($43.77), Number of Shares Outstanding (4,366,000), EBIT ($9,808,000) and the corporate tax rate (23.6%) less taxes ($2,314,688) results in the NOPAT of $7,493,312. In the last step of the model values for the cost of short-term debt (1.2%), long-term debt (2.2%), the market risk premium (5.5%), the risk-free rate on a ten-year treasury bond (1.76%), debt to equity ratio (0.64), beta (0.77) leads to the Cost of Equity of 5.995% and thus to a WACC of 4.3%. The EVA Analysis based on these input factors is: EVA = $7,493,312 – (4.3% * $109,519,000) = $2,644,023.60. This means in 2014 the management of KO was able to create Economic Added Value of $2,644,023.60. Thus, the firm is creating shareholder wealth and is an attractive investment. The EVA is an important measure to determine whether a company creates or destroys shareholder wealth. A closely related measure is the MVA (Peterson Drake, P. & Fabozzi, F., 2012). Usually if the company is managed in a way that increases the EVA, the MVA will also be higher. The MVA,
  • 18. also a measure of shareholder wealth creation will be analyzed in the next section. V. Explanation of the Data Used for the MVA Analysis and Interpretation of Results The Market Value Added (MVA) is the “difference between the market value of equity and the amount of Equity Capital [investors provided]” (EVA & MVA Model, n.d.). Therefore, MVA measures the amount of wealth a company has created over time and is considered the principal indicator of shareholder wealth creation. In the MVA Model the value of the firm equals the Market value of its debt and equity. The formula for the MVA calculation is: MVA = (MV of Equity + MV of Debt) – Total Capital Invested = Market Value of Firm – Total Capital Invested. Using the same input as for the above discussed EVA Analysis, the MVA of KO is: MVA = ($190,354,854.60 + $41,745,000) - $106,913,000 = $125,186,854.60. KO’s MVA of $125,186,854.60 indicates the amount of wealth the firm has created over time (Peterson Drake, P. & Fabozzi, F. 2012). This result aligns with the connection mentioned above that usually an increase in EVA will also lead to a higher MVA. Considering the MVA as the principal indicator of shareholder wealth maximization, KO is an attractive opportunity for investors. VI. Conclusion and Recommendation Considering all three valuation measures discussed in this analysis The Coca Cola Company is a well performing firm and a recommended investment as it has an intrinsic value larger than the current market price, has an increased EVA and high MVA that both indicate that the firm is creating shareholder wealth. This proves even though Coca Cola faced declining sales in the most recent years, the company, if able to further diversify its product portfolio and provide consumers with healthier choices, will continue to be a valuable asset in an
  • 19. investor’s portfolio. References Clayman, M. & Fridson, M. & Troughton, H. (2012). Corporate finance: a Practical Approach, Second Edition. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Coca Cola. (2015). SEC 10K. Retrieved from http://www.coca- colacompany.com/content/dam/journey/us/en/private/fileas sets/pdf/2015/02/2014- annual-report-on-form-10-k.pdf Damodaran, A. (n.d.) Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: Basics. Retrieved from http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/basic s.pdf EVA & MVA Model. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://learn.umuc.edu/d2l/le/125356/discussions/posts/186 85425/ViewAttachment?fileId =5271294 Investopedia. (2003). Intrinsic Value Definition. Retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/intrinsicvalue.asp Peterson Drake, P., & Fabozzi, F. (2012). Analysis of financial statements, Third Edition. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Yahoo! Finance. (2016). KO Key Statistics. Retrieved from http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KO EVA and MVAECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA)MARKET VALUE ADDED (MVA)ECONOMIC VALUE ADDEDEVA is a measure that is used to estimate the amount of economic value added by management during a given year.MARKET VALUE ADDEDMVA is the difference between the market value of
  • 20. equity and the amount of Equity Capital that investors have supplied.EVA &MVA ARE CLOSELY RELATEDEVA and MVA are related in a significant way. Managing the firm in ways that increase EVA will generally lead to higher MVA, an important measure of shareholder wealth creation. EVA ExampleECONOMIC VALUE ADDEDEVA = Net Operating Profit After-tax - (WACC * Invested Capital)Where Invested Capital = (Debt + Equity); It is determined by summing short-term debt, long-term debt and shareholder equity (capital stock, paid-in capital and retained earnings).Net Operating Profit is determined by reducing operating income by the amount of estimated income taxes.The firm's weighted average cost of capital is used to calculate the annual capital charge. It is determined by multiplying the after-tax weighted average cost of capital by the amount of invested capital.EVA ExampleYearShort-term DebtLong-term DebtCommon StockPaid-in CapitalRetained EarningsTotal Capital Invested1$500.0$26,100.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$16,392.0$63,992.0 2$0.0$22,800.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$25,275.0$69,075.03$0.0$69, 500.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$69,141.0$159,641.04$0.0$61,200.0$5, 000.0$16,000.0$123,544.0$205,744.05$0.0$102,900.0$5,000.0$ 16,000.0$206,599.0$330,499.06$0.0$89,600.0$5,000.0$16,000. 0$276,644.0$387,244.07$0.0$76,300.0$5,000.0$16,000.0$378,7 09.0$476,009.08$0.0$63,000.0$4,500.0$0.0$286,020.0$353,520 .09$0.0$51,500.0$4,300.0$0.0$278,952.0$334,752.0YearSalesO perating Income (EBIT)Less: TaxesEquals: Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)Invested CapitalWACCCapital ChargeEVA (NOPAT - Capital Charge)1$82,800.0$13,400.0$3,200.0$10,200.0$63,992.012.60 %$8,063.0$2,137.02$97,200.0$18,100.0$4,700.0$13,400.0$69,0 75.015.93%$11,003.6$2,396.43$181,400.0$67,500.0$19,600.0$ 47,900.0$159,641.031.07%$49,600.5($1,700.5)4$196,900.0$85, 600.0$24,300.0$61,300.0$205,744.028.72%$59,089.7$2,210.35 $283,300.0$130,600.0$36,700.0$93,900.0$330,499.027.18%$89 ,829.6$4,070.46$237,000.0$107,300.0$31,200.0$76,100.0$387,
  • 21. 244.019.63%$76,016.0$84.07$372,800.0$153,800.0$45,800.0$1 08,000.0$476,009.022.51%$107,149.6$850.48$204,100.0$72,20 0.0$22,400.0$49,800.0$353,520.014.87%$52,568.4($2,768.4)9$ 239,500.0$70,300.0$21,000.0$49,300.0$334,752.014.04%$46,9 99.2$2,300.8 MVA ExampleMARKET VALUE ADDED (MVA)MVA is the difference between the market value of equity and the amount of equity capital that investors have supplied.MVA measures the amount of wealth a firm has created over time.As such, it is the principal indicator of shareholder wealth maximization.For the purpose of estimating MVA, the value of a firm equals the market value of its debt and equity.YearMarket Value of EquityPlus: Market Value of DebtEquals: Market Value of FirmMinus: Total Capital InvestedEquals: MVA1$75,000.0$26,100.0$101,100.0$63,992.0$37,108.02$121, 100.0$22,800.0$143,900.0$69,075.0$74,825.03$354,200.0$69,5 00.0$423,700.0$159,641.0$264,059.04$624,600.0$61,200.0$68 5,800.0$205,744.0$480,056.05$1,034,800.0$102,900.0$1,137,7 00.0$330,499.0$807,201.06$1,110,900.0$89,600.0$1,200,500.0 $387,244.0$813,256.07$1,414,200.0$76,300.0$1,490,500.0$476 ,009.0$1,014,491.08$1,069,700.0$63,000.0$1,132,700.0$353,52 0.0$779,180.09$985,500.0$51,500.0$1,037,000.0$334,752.0$70 2,248.0 EVA MVA ModelCALCULATION OF EVA AND MVAName of CompanyMcCormick & Co. (MKC)Year2014Short-Term Debt$270,800.00From Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearLong-Term Debt$1,014,100.00Preferred Dividend $ per sharePreferred Stock Price per shareFrom Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearPreferred Stock$0.00$0.00$0.00From Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearCommon Stock$995,600.00From Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearPaid-In Capital$0.00From Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearRetained Earnings$982,600.00From Balance Sheet - End of Previous YearTotal Invested Capital$3,263,100.00Computer CalculatesPrice of Stock$88.49Current Market DataNumber of Shares Outstanding115,370.00Yahoo Finance EBIT
  • 22. $604,100.00Calculate from Income Statement - Current YearTax Rate24.15%Calculate from Income Statement (Taxes / Income Before Taxes)Less: Taxes$145,890.15Computer CalculatesEquals NOPAT$458,209.85Computer CalculatesRate on Short-Term Debt3.50%From Form 10K Report or Current S- T Bond DataRate on Long-Term Debt5.70%From Form 10K Report or Current L-T Bond DataMarket Risk Premium5.50%Normally 5% - 6%; Use 5.5%Risk-Free Rate (L/T Treasury bond)3.00%Current Rate on 10yr. Treasury BondDebt to Equity Ratio0.65Computer CalculatesBeta of Stock0.65Yahoo Finance Cost of Preferred Stock0.00%Computer CalculatesCost of Equity Capital6.575%% S-T Debt% L-T Debt% Equity% Preferred StockWACC6.05%8.30%31.08%60.62%0.00%Analysis is Computer GeneratedCALCULATION OF EVA - ECONOMIC VALUE ADDEDEBITLess: TaxesEquals: NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax)Equals: Invested Capital - Beginning of PeriodWACCCapital ChargeEVA (NOPAT - Capital Charge)$604,100.00$145,890.15$458,209.85$3,263,100.006.05 %$197,348.35$260,861.50Return on Invested Capital 14.04%NOPAT/Inv. CapitalFirm is Creating Shareholder WealthCALCULATION OF MVA - MARKET VALUE ADDEDMarket Value of EquityPlus: Market Value of DebtEquals: Market Value of FirmMinus: Total Invested CapitalEquals: MVA$10,209,091.30$1,284,900.00$11,493,991.30$3,263,100.0 0$8,230,891.30Firm is Creating Shareholder Wealth Sheet5 Sheet6 COMPANY: KOHL’S PART 1: Financial Forecast (COMPLETED ALREADY) PART 2: CAPITAL BUDGETING (COMPLETED ALREADY) PART 3:
  • 23. 1 DCF Company Valuation – Prepare a DCF Valuation of the selected company using the eVal model and the projections developed in Week 2 (this is the financial forecast you’ve previously submitted, I attached your previous work). Compare the intrinsic value of the company's stock (valuation) to the current stock price. Interpret and explain the results. 2 EVA & MVA Analysis - Prepare an analysis of EVA and MVA for the selected company. Excel models are provided by the instructor. Explain the results. (see attachment for example!) – Excel Worksheet Attached named “MODEL_EXAMPLE” Attached is an Excel Workbook that contains several worksheets. The first worksheet reviews the definitions of EVA and MVA. The second worksheet provides an example of how to calculate EVA. The third worksheet provides an example of how to calculate MVA. The last worksheet includes an Excel model that can be used to calculate EVA and MVA for a firm. **USEFUL: Supplement: Video EVA and MVA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCaeMTSTWYs
  • 24. IntroSTEPS:1) enter financial data on the Financial Statements Sheet,2) examine the Ratio Analysis and Cash Flow Analysis,3) enter forecasts on the Forecasting Assumptions Sheet to create future Financial Statement predictions,4) enter cost of capital assumptions on the Valuation Parameters Sheet to determine the company's value,5) evaluate the details of the resulting valuation for either the Residual Income of Discounted Cash Flow models.Other Useful Links:Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis' textbookCheck here for updated versions of eValSupplements to the textbook cases © 2012, Russell Lundholm and Richard Sloan. version 4.00 Russell Lundholm Richard Sloan Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis' textbook Supplements to the textbook cases Check here for updated versions of eVal Check here for updated versions of eVal Supplements to the textbook cases Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis' textbook Financial StatementsFinancial Statements($000s)Data can be entered manually in financial statements or as a block cut-and- paste from the Case Data Sheet to the Raw Data Input section below.Jump to Raw Data InputCompany Name and TickerKOHL'SKSSLink to Form 10-KsCommon Shares Outstanding7,154(in 000s at most recent fiscal year end)Estimated Price/Share=$83,726.48ActualActualActualActualActualForecas tForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFore castForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End (YYYY-MM- DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
  • 25. /31Income StatementSales (Net)18,800,00019,280,00019,030,00019,020,00019,200,00019, 417,54919,673,81319,970,19020,308,31520,690,07821,117,646 21,593,47422,120,33722,701,35323,340,01224,040,21224,761,4 18Cost of Goods Sold1,240,00013,120,00012,980,00012,980,00013,200,00013,34 9,56513,525,74713,729,50613,961,96614,224,42914,518,38114, 845,51315,207,73215,607,18016,046,25816,527,64617,023,475 Gross Profit20,040,00032,400,00032,010,00032,000,00032,400,00032, 767,11333,199,56033,699,69634,270,28134,914,50735,636,027 36,438,98737,328,06938,308,53339,386,27040,567,85841,784,8 94R&D Expense00000000000000000SG&A Expense4,240,0004,270,0004,310,0004,350,0004,450,0004,500, 4214,559,8164,628,5084,706,8754,795,3574,894,4545,004,7375 ,126,8495,261,5125,409,5345,571,8205,738,975EBITDA24,280, 00036,670,00036,320,00036,350,00036,850,00037,267,53537,7 59,37638,328,20338,977,15639,709,86440,530,48141,443,7254 2,454,91843,570,04544,795,80446,139,67847,523,868Depreciat ion & Amortization778,000833,000889,000886,000934,000927,57193 8,952952,226967,466984,7581,004,1971,025,8961,049,9801,07 6,5911,105,8871,138,0461,172,187EBIT25,058,00037,503,0003 7,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10638,698,32839,280,43 039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469,62143,504,89944,646, 63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055Net Interest Expense303,000329,000338,000345,000332,000332,012336,085 340,837346,292352,481359,439367,206375,826385,351395,837 407,348419,569Non-Operating Income (Loss)1,860,0001,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,010 1,086,1581,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,22 1,2271,253,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037EBT27,221,00039, 392,00037,687,00038,931,00039,176,00039,599,12840,120,572 40,723,78741,412,10242,189,36743,059,98844,028,96745,101,9 5246,285,29147,586,09149,012,29250,482,660Income Taxes692,000575,000515,000482,000384,000388,147393,25939
  • 26. 9,171405,918413,537422,071431,568442,086453,685466,43548 0,415494,827Other Income (Loss)00000000000000000Net Income Before Ext. Items27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039, 987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,058 44,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,4 87Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.00000000000000000Minority Interest in Earnings00000000000000000Preferred Dividends00000000000000000Net Income (available to common)27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00 039,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482, 05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,9 77,487Balance SheetOperating Cash and Market. Sec.1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724,447 735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859,447 885,231911,788Receivables00025,00026,00026,29526,64227,04 327,50128,01828,59729,24129,95530,74131,60632,55433,531In ventories320,0003,750,0003,870,0003,810,0004,040,0004,085,7 764,139,6984,202,0614,273,2084,353,5374,443,5054,543,6274, 654,4884,776,7434,911,1275,058,4615,210,215Other Current Assets371,000434,000447,000452,000305,000308,456312,5273 17,235322,606328,671335,463343,021351,391360,620370,7663 81,889393,345Total Current Assets1,901,0004,721,0005,288,0005,697,0005,078,0005,135,53 75,203,3145,281,6995,371,1265,472,0955,585,1775,711,0245,8 50,3686,004,0356,172,9476,358,1356,548,879PP&E (Net)8,910,0008,870,0008,750,0008,520,0008,310,0008,404,158 8,515,0728,643,3488,789,6928,954,9259,139,9819,345,9259,57 3,9599,825,42910,101,84910,404,90410,717,051Investments153 ,00053,00064,00000000000000000Intangibles000000000000000 00Other Assets261,000261,000277,000218,000222,000224,515227,4782 30,905234,815239,229244,173249,675255,766262,484269,8692 77,965286,304Total Assets11,225,00013,905,00014,379,00014,435,00013,610,00013 ,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331
  • 27. 15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2 35Current Debt94,000105,000139,000110,000127,000128,439130,134132, 094134,331136,856139,684142,832146,317150,160154,384159, 016163,786Accounts Payable1,230,0001,310,0001,370,0001,510,0001,250,0001,264, 1631,280,8471,300,1431,322,1561,347,0101,374,8471,405,8251 ,440,1261,477,9531,519,5321,565,1181,612,072Income Taxes Payable133,000290,00094,00078,000130,000131,473133,20813 5,215137,504140,089142,984146,206149,773153,707158,03116 2,772167,655Other Current Liabilities1,130,000833,0001,140,00011,600,0001,210,0001,223 ,7101,239,8601,258,5381,279,8471,303,9061,330,8521,360,839 1,394,0421,430,6581,470,9071,515,0341,560,485Total Current Liabilities2,587,0002,538,0002,743,00013,298,0002,717,0002,7 47,7852,784,0502,825,9902,873,8382,927,8622,988,3673,055,7 013,130,2583,212,4783,302,8553,401,9403,503,999Long-Term Debt4,150,0004,450,0004,720,0004,650,0004,580,0004,631,894 4,693,0244,763,7224,844,3794,935,4465,037,4385,150,9435,27 6,6225,415,2195,567,5655,734,5925,906,630Other Liabilities460,000512,000560,000562,000563,000569,379576,8 94585,584595,499606,693619,231633,184648,633665,670684,3 97704,929726,077Deferred Taxes386,000362,000382,000368,000257,000259,912263,34226 7,309271,835276,945282,668289,038296,090303,867312,41632 1,788331,442Total Liabilities7,583,0007,862,0008,405,00018,878,0008,117,0008,2 08,9718,317,3108,442,6068,585,5528,746,9468,927,7059,128,8 669,351,6039,597,2339,867,23310,163,25010,468,148Minority Interest00000000000000000Preferred Stock00000000000000000Paid in Common Capital (Net)6,510,0006,050,0005,980,00059,900,0005,490,000(46,762, 036)(87,202,551)(128,240,718)(169,962,003)(212,455,687)(255, 815,420)(300,139,824)(345,533,129)(392,105,880)(439,975,690 )(489,268,073)(540,039,228)Retained Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000
  • 28. 52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261, 857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14 5,828547,123,315Total Common Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005, 555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177, 7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Total Liabilities and Equity24,293,00024,792,00025,845,00090,788,00025,937,00013 ,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331 15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2 35Error! A =L+E?Statement of Retained EarningsBeg. Retained Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000 52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261, 857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14 5,828+Net Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764 0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53 545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487- Common Dividends00000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=End. Retained Earnings10,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,00052,317,276 92,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,857,047306 ,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,145,828547,1 23,315Values for Dupont Analysis and ValuationNet Operating Income27,602,29739,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,7463 9,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09 644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553, 806Net Financial Expense310,703333,802342,619349,271335,254335,266339,380 344,177349,686355,936362,962370,805379,510389,129399,717 411,341423,681Net Income27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,0003 9,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05 844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977, 487Effective Tax
  • 29. Rate(0.0254)(0.0146)(0.0137)(0.0124)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098) (0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.00 98)(0.0098)(0.0098)Net Operating Assets20,954,00021,485,00022,299,00076,670,00022,527,00010 ,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210,991,60411,218,749 11,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,38112,771,36313,154,5 04Net Financial Obligations4,244,0004,555,0004,859,0004,760,0004,707,0004,7 60,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,3025,177,1235,293,7 755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,6086,070,416Total Common Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005, 555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177, 7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Raw Data Inputscut-and-paste raw data block from DataMaker file hereCompany Name and TickerKOHL'SKSSA Windows vs Macintosh issue can cause the fiscal year end dates to be off by roughly 4 years. If this occurs, select and copy the 1462 cell below, select the cells with the dates, choose Paste Special Values and select Subtract or Add.Common Shares Outstanding7,154Fiscal Year End (YYYY-MM- DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31Sale s (Net)18,800,00019280000190300001902000019200000Cost of Goods Sold124000013120000129800001298000013200000R&D Expense00000SG&A Expense42400004270000431000043500004450000Depreciation & Amortization778000833000889000886000934000Interest Expense303000329000338000345000332000Non-Operating Income (Loss)1860000156000014000013500001060000Income Taxes692000575000515000482000384000Minority Interest in Earnings00000Other Income (Loss)00000Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.00000Preferred Dividends00000Operating Cash and Market. Sec.12100005370009710001410000707000Receivables00025,00 026,000Inventories3200003750000387000038100004040000Oth er Current Assets371000434000447000452000305000PP&E
  • 30. (Net)89100008870000875000085200008310000Investments153 000530006400000Intangibles00000Other Assets261000261000277000218000222000Current Debt94000105000139000110000127000Accounts Payable12300001310000137000015100001250000Income Taxes Payable1330002900009400078000130000Other Current Liabilities11300008330001140000116000001210000Long-Term Debt41500004450000472000046500004580000Other Liabilities460000512000560000562000563000Deferred Taxes386000362000382000368000257000Minority Interest00000Preferred Stock00000Paid in Common Capital (Net)651000060500005980000599000005490000Retained Earnings1020000010880000114600001201000012330000Comm on Dividends00000 Jump to Raw Data Input Ratio AnalysisRatio AnalysisCompany NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec astForecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12 /31Annual Growth RatesSales2.6%-1.3%- 0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0 %3.0%Assets23.9%3.4%0.4%- 5.7%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0 %Common Equity1.3%3.0%312.3%-75.2%- 68.8%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0%Ea rnings43.2%- 4.4%3.2%0.4%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8 %3.0%3.0%Free Cash Flow to Investors0.0%449962.2%- 192.4%0.0%1.3%1.5%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3 .0%Sustainable Growth Rate222.3%88.2%88.2%342.1%724.5%725.2%725.8%726.4%72 7.1%727.7%728.3%729.0%729.6%730.2%730.2%ProfitabilityR eturn on
  • 31. Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717. 2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Return on Equity (b4 non- recurring)2.2822.2150.8520.8583.3297.0497.0557.0617.0687.07 47.0807.0867.0927.0997.1057.105Return on Net Operating Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833. 8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Basic Dupont ModelNet Profit Margin1.4852.0732.0072.0722.0602.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592. 0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.059x Total Asset Turnover1.5341.3461.3201.3691.4191.4201.4211.4231.4241.42 51.4261.4281.4291.4301.4321.432x Total Leverage1.4591.4731.3051.3011.6982.4782.4782.4782.4782.478 2.4782.4782.4782.4782.4782.478= Return on Equity4.6413.9803.5713.6704.9627.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717. 2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Advanced Dupont ModelNet Operating Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422. 0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042x Net Operating Asset Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90 21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910= Return on Net Operating Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833. 8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Net Borrowing Cost (NBC)(0.076)(0.073)(0.073)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071 )(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)Sprea d (RNOA - NBC)1.9441.8020.8620.8622.4853.9403.9433.9473.9503.9543.9 573.9603.9643.9673.9713.971Financial Leverage (LEV)0.2620.2740.1080.1060.4050.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570. 8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857ROE = RNOA + LEV*Spread2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647. 2717.2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Margin AnalysisGross Margin1.0661.6801.6821.6821.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881. 6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.688EBITDA Margin1.2911.9021.9091.9111.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191. 9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.919EBIT Margin1.3331.9451.9551.9581.9681.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671. 9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.967Net Operating Margin (b4
  • 32. non- rec.)1.3671.9741.9821.9821.9871.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.98 61.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.986Net Operating Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422. 0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042Turnover AnalysisNet Operating Asset Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90 21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910Net Working Capital Turnover22.7367.655(7.913)(7.675)7.7617.7687.7757.7827.789 7.7967.8037.8107.8177.8247.8317.831Avge Days to Collect Receivables0.0000.0000.2400.4850.4920.4910.4910.4900.4900. 4890.4890.4880.4880.4880.4870.487Avge Inventory Holding Period(56.614)(107.138)(107.982)(108.532)(111.086)(110.985)( 110.883)(110.782)(110.681)(110.581)(110.481)(110.382)(110.2 83)(110.184)(110.085)(110.085)Avge Days to Pay Payables(47.838)(38.033)(40.307)(38.836)(34.489)(34.477)(34. 464)(34.452)(34.440)(34.428)(34.416)(34.404)(34.391)(34.379) (34.367)(34.367)PP&E Turnover2.1692.1602.2032.2822.3232.3262.3282.3302.3322.33 42.3362.3382.3402.3432.3452.345Analysis of Leverage- Long- Term Capital StructureDebt to Equity Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8 570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30 08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2 928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term LiquidityCurrent Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8 691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2 700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04 1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11 5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24
  • 33. 8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11 2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Fiscal Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222 0232024202520262027 Cash Flow AnalysisCash Flow Analysis($000)Company NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualForecastForecastForeca stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFor ecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/312012/12/31201 3/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/31 2019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/31Pro Forma Statement of Cash FlowsOperating:Net Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764 0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53 545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487+Depre ciation & Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9 38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0 49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Increase in Deferred Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1 105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654+Increase in Other Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194 12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+Minority Interest in Earnings0000000000000000+Preferred Dividends0000000000000000=Funds From Operations39,162,00037,381,00038,515,00038,516,00039,068,9 9539,585,82340,183,39040,864,99541,634,45142,496,12143,45 4,96044,516,55945,687,19946,973,91548,384,56549,836,102- Increase in Receivables00(25,000)(1,000)(295)(347)(401)(458)(517)(579)(6 44)(713)(787)(865)(948)(977)-Increase in Inventory(3,430,000)(120,000)60,000(230,000)(45,776)(53,922) (62,363)(71,147)(80,329)(89,967)(100,122)(110,861)(122,255)( 134,384)(147,334)(151,754)-Increase in Other Current Assets(63,000)(13,000)(5,000)147,000(3,456)(4,071)(4,708)(5,3
  • 34. 71)(6,064)(6,792)(7,559)(8,369)(9,230)(10,145)(11,123)(11,457 )+Increase in Accounts Payable80,00060,000140,000(260,000)14,16316,68419,29522,0 1324,85427,83630,97834,30137,82741,57945,58646,954+Increa se in Taxes Payable157,000(196,000)(16,000)52,0001,4731,7352,0072,2892 ,5852,8953,2223,5673,9344,3244,7414,883+Increase in Other Curr. Liabilities(297,000)307,00010,460,000(10,390,000)13,71016,15 018,67821,30924,05926,94629,98733,20336,61640,24944,12745 ,451=Cash From Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8 1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41 0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202Inv esting:-Capital Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0 37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4 68834,990860,040-Increase in Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41 4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)=Cash From Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482 0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382 6,894851,701Financing:+Increase in Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89 393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808 -Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000- Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in Pref. Stock0000000000000000-Dividends Paid on Common0000000000000000+/-Net Issuance of Common Stock(460,000)(70,000)53,920,000(54,410,000)(52,252,036)(40, 440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,285)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44, 324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,751)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50, 771,155)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
  • 35. (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Cash From Financing(39,436,000)(37,388,000)14,958,000(93,703,000)(52,1 98,703)(40,377,690)(40,965,508)(41,638,392)(42,400,092)(43,2 54,913)(44,207,751)(45,264,142)(46,430,311)(47,713,239)(49,1 20,725)(50,594,346)Net Change in Cash(2,854,000)1,013,00065,326,000(64,729,000)(12,318,989)9 ,43610,91312,45114,05815,74417,52119,40121,39523,51725,78 326,557+ Beginning Cash Balance1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724, 447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859, 447885,231= Ending Cash Balance(1,644,000)1,550,00066,297,000(63,319,000)(11,611,98 9)724,447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,9 30859,447885,231911,788Free Cash Flow to Common EquityNet Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764 0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53 545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487- Increase in Common Equity(220,000)(510,000)(54,470,000)54,090,00012,264,761(73 ,316)(84,792)(96,735)(109,220)(122,324)(136,132)(150,732)(16 6,225)(182,716)(200,323)(206,333)+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440, 51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3 93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Computation based on SCF:+Cash From Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8 1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41 0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202- Increase in Cash2,854,000(1,013,000)(65,326,000)64,729,00012,318,989(9, 436)(10,913)(12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395) (23,517)(25,783)(26,557)+Cash From
  • 36. Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482 0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382 6,894851,701+Increase in Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89 393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808 -Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000- Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in Preferred Stock0000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440, 51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3 93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Financing Flows:+Dividends Paid0000000000000000-Net Issuance of Common Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5 1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39 3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155= Free Cash Flow to Common Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440, 51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3 93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Free Cash Flow to all InvestorsNet Operating Income39,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,74639,652,0104 0,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09644,089,73 045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553,806- Increase in Net Operating Assets(531,000)(814,000)(54,371,000)54,143,00012,211,427(13 6,141)(157,450)(179,629)(202,812)(227,145)(252,784)(279,896) (308,665)(339,287)(371,981)(383,141)+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437 40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9 4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Comp utation based on SCF:Cash From
  • 37. Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8 1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41 0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202- Increase in Operating Cash673,000(434,000)(439,000)703,000(8,011)(9,436)(10,913)( 12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395)(23,517)(25,7 83)(26,557)+Cash from Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482 0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382 6,894851,701+Interest Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08 5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38 5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39 4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+/- Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0 38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464 4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Financing Flows:+Dividends on Common Stock0000000000000000+Interest Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08 5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38 5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39 4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+Di vidends on Preferred Stock0000000000000000+Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000-Net Issuance of Common Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5 1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39 3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155-Net Issuance of Debt(311,000)(304,000)99,00053,000(53,333)(62,825)(72,659)(
  • 38. 82,893)(93,592)(104,821)(116,652)(129,164)(142,440)(156,571) (171,658)(176,808)-Net Issuance of Preferred Stock0000000000000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437 40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9 4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Tradit ional Computation of FCF:EBIT37,503,00037,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10 638,698,32839,280,43039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469, 62143,504,89944,646,63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055- Taxes on EBIT570,198510,381477,729380,746384,893389,964395,83040 2,524410,082418,547427,969438,402449,908462,555476,42249 0,714+Increase in Deferred Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1 105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654= NOPLAT38,049,19837,739,38137,699,72938,053,74638,582,91 139,091,72339,680,22740,351,67241,109,81341,958,94942,903, 95943,950,35345,104,32046,372,79447,763,51849,196,423+Dep reciation & Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9 38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0 49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Non- Operating Income (Loss)1,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,0101,086,158 1,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,221,2271,25 3,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037+Other Income (Loss)0000000000000000+Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.0000000000000000=Gross Cash Flow38,776,19836,990,38138,163,72938,179,74638,727,35039, 238,92939,830,52240,505,39441,267,32042,120,62243,070,203 44,121,59945,281,03346,555,47147,952,69249,391,273- Increase in Working Capital(2,880,000)(396,000)10,175,000(9,979,000)(28,191)(33, 208)(38,405)(43,815)(49,470)(55,406)(61,659)(68,273)(75,290) (82,760)(90,734)(93,456)-Capital
  • 39. Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0 37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4 68834,990860,040-Increase in Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41 4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)+Increase in Other Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194 12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0 38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464 4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Analysis of Earnings Quality(Red Shading = Quality Flag)Current Op. Accruals/NOA0.180(0.002)(0.498)0.1420.0010.0020.0030.0030. 0040.0040.0040.0050.0050.0050.0060.006+ Non-Current Op. Accruals/NOA(0.009)(0.008)(0.016)(0.001)0.0040.0110.0120.0 140.0150.0170.0180.0200.0210.0230.0240.024= Operating Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170. 0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Sales Growth0.026(0.013)(0.001)0.0090.0110.0130.0150.0170.0190.0 210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030- NOA Turnover Growth0.0350.0322.531(0.713)(0.565)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0 000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)- Interaction0.001(0.000)(0.001)(0.007)(0.006)0.0000.0000.0000. 0000.0000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)= Operating Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170. 0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Fiscal Year2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232 024202520262027 Credit AnalysisCredit AnalysisCompany NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec
  • 40. astForecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12 /31Analysis of Leverage- Long-Term Capital StructureDebt to Equity Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8 570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30 08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2 928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term LiquidityCurrent Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8 691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2 700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04 1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11 5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24 8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11 2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Analysis of Credit RiskNet Income to Total Assets2.4872.8742.6572.7302.9072.9052.9052.9052.9052.9052. 9052.9052.9052.9042.9042.9042.904implied default probability2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0 %2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Total Liabilities to Total Assets0.6760.5650.5851.3080.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960. 5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.596implied default probability5.5%4.5%4.5%10.0%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4. 5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%Quick Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2 700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270implied default probability6.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0 %9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%EBIT to Interest
  • 41. Expense(82.70)(113.99)(110.09)(107.93)(113.81)(115.04)(115.1 4)(115.25)(115.35)(115.45)(115.55)(115.66)(115.76)(115.86)(1 15.96)(116.06)(116.06)implied default probability7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5 %7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Inventory Holding Period- 94.19-104.33-108.83-107.14-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71- 111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71- 111.71implied default probability3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0 %3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Annual Sales Growth0.0%2.6%- 1.3%- 0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0 %3.0%implied default probability4.2%3.2%4.2%4.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2 %3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%Average Implied Default Probability4.8%4.9%5.0%6.0%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4. 9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%Fiscal Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222 0232024202520262027Lookup Table of default probabilitydecile 1min decile 2min decile 3min decile 4min decile 5min decile 6min decile 7min decile 8min decile 9min decile 10NI to TA thresholds-0.448-0.161- 0.0490.0010.0220.0380.0560.0790.118NI to TA default rates0.0830.080.0720.0550.0450.0300.0250.0200.0200.020TL to TA thresholds0.1750.2830.3850.4760.5580.6330.7090.8161.030TL to TA default rates0.020.0220.0250.0300.0350.0450.0550.0700.0900.100Quic k Ratio thresholds0.3820.5220.8090.9941.2001.4701.8902.5304.550Qui ck Ratio default rates0.090.0650.050.0420.0400.0350.0250.0200.0150.010EBIT to Int thresholds-17.4-3.6- 0.1391.252.2103.3805.2109.16023.800EBIT to Int default rates0.0750.090.0850.0700.0500.0300.0210.0180.0150.010Inv Holding
  • 42. thresholds0.3652.5614.2431.395070.08091.980121.540174.470I nv Holding default rates0.030.0350.0390.0400.0420.0450.0490.0550.0600.070Sales Growth thresholds-0.203- 0.0630.0030.050.0980.1580.2440.3980.797Sales Growth default rates0.0690.0550.0420.0320.0300.0300.0320.0420.0500.065 Forecasting AssumptionsForecasting AssumptionsCompany NameKOHL'STERMINALEstimated Price/Share=$83,726.48YEARActualActualActualActualActualF orecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca stForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12 /31Implied Return on Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717. 2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Income Statement AssumptionsSales Growth2.6%-1.3%- 0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0 %3.0%Cost of Goods Sold/Sales-6.6%-68.0%-68.2%-68.2%- 68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%- 68.8%-68.8%-68.8%- 68.8%R&D/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0 .0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%SG&A/Sales-22.6%- 22.1%-22.6%-22.9%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%- 23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%- 23.2%Dep&Amort/Avge PP&E and Intang.-9.4%-10.1%-10.3%- 11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%- 11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%Net Interest Expense/Avge Net Debt-7.5%-7.2%-7.2%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%- 7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%Non-Operating Income/Sales9.9%8.1%0.7%7.1%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5% 5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%Effective Tax Rate-2.5%- 1.5%-1.4%-1.2%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%- 1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%Minority Interest/After Tax Income0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
  • 43. .0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Other Income/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ext. Items & Disc. Ops./Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0 %0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Pref. Dividends/Avge Pref. Stock0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0 %0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Balance Sheet AssumptionsWorking Capital AssumptionsEnding Operating Cash/Sales6.4%2.8%5.1%7.4%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7 %3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%Ending Receivables/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0 .1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Ending Inventories/COGS-25.8%-28.6%-29.8%-29.4%-30.6%-30.6%- 30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%- 30.6%-30.6%Ending Other Current Assets/Sales2.0%2.3%2.3%2.4%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1 .6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%Ending Accounts Payable/COGS-99.2%-10.0%-10.6%-11.6%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%- 9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%- 9.5%Ending Taxes Payable/Sales0.7%1.5%0.5%0.4%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7% 0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%Ending Other Current Liabs/Sales6.0%4.3%6.0%61.0%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6 .3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%Other Operating Asset AssumptionsEnding Net PP&E/Sales47.4%46.0%46.0%44.8%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43 .3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%Ending Investments/Sales0.8%0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0 .0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending Intangibles/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0. 0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending Other Assets/Sales1.4%1.4%1.5%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1 .2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%Other Operating Liability AssumptionsOther Liabilities/Sales2.4%2.7%2.9%3.0%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2. 9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%Deferred
  • 44. Taxes/Sales2.1%1.9%2.0%1.9%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1. 3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%Financing AssumptionsCurrent Debt/Total Assets0.8%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0. 9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%Long-Term Debt/Total Assets37.0%32.0%32.8%32.2%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%3 3.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%Minority Interest/Total Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0. 0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Preferred Stock/Total Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0. 0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Dividend Payout Ratio0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0 %0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Valuation ParametersValuation ParametersEstimated Price/Share=$83,726.48Company Name:KOHL'SRequired Valuation Parameters (to compute value of common equity):Enter Cost of Equity Capital:10.00%Enter Value of Contingent Claims on Common Equity ($000):0Enter Date of Valuation:2012/06/20Enter Dilution Factor for Splits Occurring Since Latest Fiscal Year End:1.00Optional Valuation Parameters (to compute value to all investors):Enter Cost of Net Debt:8.00%Enter Cost of Preferred Stock:9.00%Enter Cost of Minority Interest:10.00%Adjust the Weighted Average Cost of Capital Input9.3720%upsuch that the two equity values below are approximately equal:Equity Value computed directlyEquity Value computed indirectlyapproximate weighted averagefrom flows to equityholders:as the Entity Value less non-equity claims:cost of capital to use as starting point:83726.4891973.4510.03% Residual Income ValuationsResidual Income Valuation($000)Company NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End12/31/11Date of Valuation6/20/12Cost of Common Equity10.00%Teriminal Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31 2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12
  • 45. /312023/12/31(53,655,643)Valuation to Common EquityNet Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044 3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70 650,977,487Common Equity at Beginning of Year17,820,0005,555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,30 26,041,6266,177,7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,754Res idual Income38,205,27639,958,30740,560,10341,246,68642,021,8964 2,890,12843,856,37244,926,26246,106,12747,403,05548,824,96 350,289,712Present Value of Residual Income34,732,06933,023,39430,473,40628,172,04126,092,2912 4,210,35922,505,25420,958,43319,553,49918,275,93017,112,85 216,023,852Present Value Beyond 10 Years268,916,240Present Value of First 10 Years257,996,674Common Equity as of12/31/1117,820,000Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date598,979,234Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value Attributable to Common Equity598,979,234Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,726.48Valuation to All InvestorsCost of Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred Stock9.00%Cost of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital9.37%Net Interest Expense to Net Debtholders(332,012)(336,085)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(35 9,439)(367,206)(375,826)(385,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569) Beginning Book Value of Debt4,707,0004,760,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,302 5,177,1235,293,7755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,608Resi dual Interest Expense(708,572)(716,912)(726,689)(737,957)(750,778)(765,22 3)(781,376)(799,328)(819,186)(841,068)(865,104)(891,057)Pres ent Value of Residual Interest Income(656,085)(614,636)(576,869)(542,420)(510,967)(482,22 0)(455,925)(431,852)(409,797)(389,577)(371,028)(353,851)Val ue of Debt(8,377,562)Dividends to Preferred Stockholders000000000000Beginning Book Value of Preferred
  • 46. Stock000000000000Residual Income to Preferred Stock000000000000Present Value of Preferred Residual Income000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Minority Interest in Earnings000000000000Beginning Book Value of Minority Interest000000000000Residual Income to Minority Interest000000000000Present Value of MI Residual Income000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Net Operating Income39,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,9684 3,119,09644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36 550,553,806Beginning Net Operating Assets22,527,00010,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210 ,991,60411,218,74911,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,381 12,771,363Residual Income to all Investors37,540,77939,207,67639,799,24640,474,04341,235,84 242,088,96343,038,30944,089,41645,248,50346,522,53747,919, 29549,356,874Present Value of Residual Investor Income34,323,93932,776,21430,419,80228,284,72626,347,7852 4,588,45822,988,57921,532,03720,204,53418,993,36217,887,21 516,845,108Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date657,978,085Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value Attributable to Common Equity657,978,085Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,973.45 DCF ValuationsDCF Valuations($000)Company NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End12/31/11Date of Valuation6/20/12Cost of Common Equity10.00%Terminal Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31 2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12 /312023/12/31-53655642.8830Valuation to Common EquityFree Cash Flow to Common Equity52,252,03640,440,51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443 ,359,73444,324,40445,393,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,383
  • 47. 50,771,155Present Value of FCF47,501,85133,421,91330,832,58228,496,19926,385,23424,4 75,43922,745,42821,176,31219,751,39318,455,88417,276,6801 6,177,255Present Value Beyond 10 Years271,490,679Present Value of First 10 Years273,242,235Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date598,979,234Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value Attributable to Common Equity598,979,234Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,726.48Valuation to All InvestorsCost of Net Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred Stock9.00%Cost of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital9.37%Free Cash Flow to Debt(385,345)(398,910)(413,495)(429,185)(446,073)(464,260)( 483,858)(504,990)(527,791)(552,409)(579,007)(596,377)Presen t Value of FCF to Debt(356,801)(342,001)(328,246)(315,464)(303,590)(292,562)( 282,327)(272,831)(264,027)(255,872)(248,326)(236,829)Value of Debt(8,377,562)Free Cash Flow to Preferred Stock000000000000Present Value of FCF to Preferred Stock000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Free Cash Flow to Minority Interest000000000000Present Value of FCF to Minority Interest000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Free Cash Flows to Investors51,863,43740,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15 642,891,95143,836,94644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709, 38450,170,665Present Value of FCF to Investors47,419,30033,470,59531,048,14728,854,04226,864,25 925,057,56623,415,16521,920,39820,558,48419,316,29118,182, 13817,122,848Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of Net Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date657,978,085Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value Attributable to Common Equity657,978,085Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
  • 48. Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,973.45 EPS ForecasterEPS Forecaster($000, except per share amounts)Company NameKOHL'SCommon Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecasted Price at Valuation Date$83,726.48ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year of Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31 2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12 /312023/12/31Net Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044 3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70 650,977,487Common Equity Issued (Repurchased)(52,252,036)(40,440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,28 5)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44,324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,75 1)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50,771,155)Forecasted Price at Year End$88,145.38$96,959.91$106,655.91$117,321.50$129,053.65$ 141,959.01$156,154.91$171,770.40$188,947.44$207,842.19$22 8,626.41$251,489.05New Shares Issued (Repurchased)(593)(417)(385)(356)(329)(305)(284)(264)(246)( 230)(216)(202)Shares Outstanding at End of Year6,5616,1445,7595,4045,0744,7694,4854,2213,9743,7443,52 93,327Forecast EPS$5,831.09$6,377.46$6,909.41$7,492.20$8,131.72$8,834.69 $9,608.73$10,462.58$11,406.24$12,451.21$13,610.72$14,872.8 1Consensus Analyst Forecast of EPSForecast Five Year Growth Rate in EPS9%Consensus Analyst Forecast of Growth RateTo obtain analyst forecasts, click here Although not a necessary input for eVal, we recommend that you find the analyst forecasts for your company and store them in the yellow-shaded cells for comparison purposes. Model SummaryModel SummaryHistorical Data For:KOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End:2011/12/31Average ROE (last five years)159.08%Sales Growth (last five
  • 49. years)0.53%Forecast Data:Forecast Horizon10 yearsThis Year's ROE342.13%Terminal Year's ROE730.24%This Year's Sales Growth1.13%Terminal Year's Sales Growth3.00%This Year's Forecast EPS$5,831.09Forecast 5 Year EPS Growth8.66%Valuation Data:Cost of Equity Capital10.00%Valuation Date2012/06/20Estimated Price/Share$83,726.48Estimated Price/Earnings Ratio14.36Estimated Market/Book Ratio33.61