The document summarizes the remarkable and unprecedented expansion of the US economy over the past 9 years. It notes that the US economy has grown to be almost twice as large as at the start of the 1990s, while Canada only grew by a third over the same period. It attributes the US growth to restructuring in the 1980s-90s, flexible labor markets, record productivity, and huge investments in computers. However, it warns that the US private sector savings rate has fallen to unprecedented lows, leaving the economy vulnerable to a slowdown or recession if savings behavior changes. It draws parallels to downturns in Japan and other countries preceded by drops in private savings.
Ryan Avent writes that this year's best business books on economics all look back, with various degrees of pessimism on the construction of the post-World War II order, and on its demise. Marc Levinson's An Extraordinary Time chronicles the remarkable growth of the period between 1945 and 1973 -- and suggests the problems that have cropped up in the past 40 years represent a reversion to the mean. Rick Wartzman's The End of Loyalty tracks the breakdown of the social contract between employers and employees through the lens of four major U.S. industrial companies. And Walter Scheidel's The Great Leveler argues that the inequality that characterizes our own time has been present in societies since the beginning of recorded history.
one hedge fund manager can pocketed $ 1,3 bio (2014)!
This reminded me of a famous Wall Street joke – about a visitor to New York who admired the gorgeous yachts of the richest bankers and brokers. After gazing long and thoughtfully at these beautiful boats, the visitor asked wryly: “Where are the customers’ yachts?” Of course, the customers could not afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers.
The document provides an outlook for the year 2016. It begins with a base case that forecasts slow economic growth and low inflation in the US, with the S&P 500 reaching 2214.39. It identifies several "known unknowns" that could impact the outlook, including monetary policy changes, the global economy, the upcoming US election, and geopolitical issues. It then examines the weak US economic recovery in more depth, attributing it to high private sector debt levels. International growth is also constrained by debt and aging populations. China's transition away from its low-cost manufacturing model poses risks if not managed properly.
The document discusses the causes and lessons of the global economic recession. It argues that the recession was not simply due to inadequate demand but also distorted supply, as economies lost the ability to grow through making useful things. Governments and households borrowed excessively to prop up growth. Rather than trying to return to unsustainable pre-crisis GDP levels through more borrowing and spending, governments need to address underlying economic flaws through policies like retraining workers, encouraging innovation, and making labor markets more competitive. Easy credit masked deeper problems, and debt-fueled growth proved unsustainable.
The document summarizes the long road to global economic recovery after the 2008 crisis. It notes that recovery has been unequal, with developed nations rebounding faster than developing ones. It argues that to achieve sustainable recovery, the root causes that led to the crisis must be addressed by fixing old faults in the global economic system and regulations to prevent new ones. Nations with strong public-private partnerships and democratic institutions are best positioned for faster recovery. Productive capital spending in essential sectors like food and housing can help revive economies and benefit the majority of citizens.
This document provides background information on economic growth in the United States before the Civil War. It discusses factors that led to rapid urbanization and industrialization such as increased immigration, which provided low-skilled workers for factories. The document also contrasts the Jeffersonian and Hamiltonian visions for the American economy, with Jefferson favoring agriculture and Hamilton supporting industrialization. It provides details on how Hamilton's vision began to take shape through early mills and factories in places like Lowell, Massachusetts.
Macro Manifesto - Investment Outlook for 2015
ABRIDGED RELEASE FOR PUBLIC DISSEMINATION
John Winsell Davies
CIO - Fund Manager
The ‘New Charismatics’, leadership and financial markets
- in the post-consensus, post-parliamentarian world
Narendra Modi - Gujarati brand of compassionate conservatism
Xi Jinping - Bigger than Moa, stocks trump ‘SUFFR’
Shinzō Abe - Brave Diet; audentes fortuna Iuvat ... and Abe
Joko Widodo - Clove Revolution ‘A New Hope’, the Luke Skywalker of Asia
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - Badder than Bin Laden, ‘Black Crow’ event in the making
Enrique Peña Nieto - PEMEX RIP, Mano e mano with El Jefe, Yo Soy 132 be damned
Hassan Rouhani - The promise of Khatami realised 2015? EM investors refocus on Iran
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin - VVP’s Russia, the endgame as I see it
Kim Jong-un - Fun Boy Three, no laughing matter
Emerging Markets corporate governance mandates
- total return not ideology
Where is the floor? Marginal supply and the economics of unconventional oil production
The Dollar Bully World - Captain America still feeling Marvel-lous
What’ll it be? Call drinks for in the New Year
Asset allocation - Huntington, Hopkins, Stanford and Crocker
Geographic dispersion - favoured destinations
Industry sector - priority focus
... Independent Global Macro and Emerging Market Investment Analysis
This is an original opinion piece which may not reflect the views of the Firm
No other parties contributed to the production of this publication; the opinions expressed here are his own
Registered in England and Wales: 02895959 | Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority: 170913
Ryan Avent writes that this year's best business books on economics all look back, with various degrees of pessimism on the construction of the post-World War II order, and on its demise. Marc Levinson's An Extraordinary Time chronicles the remarkable growth of the period between 1945 and 1973 -- and suggests the problems that have cropped up in the past 40 years represent a reversion to the mean. Rick Wartzman's The End of Loyalty tracks the breakdown of the social contract between employers and employees through the lens of four major U.S. industrial companies. And Walter Scheidel's The Great Leveler argues that the inequality that characterizes our own time has been present in societies since the beginning of recorded history.
one hedge fund manager can pocketed $ 1,3 bio (2014)!
This reminded me of a famous Wall Street joke – about a visitor to New York who admired the gorgeous yachts of the richest bankers and brokers. After gazing long and thoughtfully at these beautiful boats, the visitor asked wryly: “Where are the customers’ yachts?” Of course, the customers could not afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers.
The document provides an outlook for the year 2016. It begins with a base case that forecasts slow economic growth and low inflation in the US, with the S&P 500 reaching 2214.39. It identifies several "known unknowns" that could impact the outlook, including monetary policy changes, the global economy, the upcoming US election, and geopolitical issues. It then examines the weak US economic recovery in more depth, attributing it to high private sector debt levels. International growth is also constrained by debt and aging populations. China's transition away from its low-cost manufacturing model poses risks if not managed properly.
The document discusses the causes and lessons of the global economic recession. It argues that the recession was not simply due to inadequate demand but also distorted supply, as economies lost the ability to grow through making useful things. Governments and households borrowed excessively to prop up growth. Rather than trying to return to unsustainable pre-crisis GDP levels through more borrowing and spending, governments need to address underlying economic flaws through policies like retraining workers, encouraging innovation, and making labor markets more competitive. Easy credit masked deeper problems, and debt-fueled growth proved unsustainable.
The document summarizes the long road to global economic recovery after the 2008 crisis. It notes that recovery has been unequal, with developed nations rebounding faster than developing ones. It argues that to achieve sustainable recovery, the root causes that led to the crisis must be addressed by fixing old faults in the global economic system and regulations to prevent new ones. Nations with strong public-private partnerships and democratic institutions are best positioned for faster recovery. Productive capital spending in essential sectors like food and housing can help revive economies and benefit the majority of citizens.
This document provides background information on economic growth in the United States before the Civil War. It discusses factors that led to rapid urbanization and industrialization such as increased immigration, which provided low-skilled workers for factories. The document also contrasts the Jeffersonian and Hamiltonian visions for the American economy, with Jefferson favoring agriculture and Hamilton supporting industrialization. It provides details on how Hamilton's vision began to take shape through early mills and factories in places like Lowell, Massachusetts.
Macro Manifesto - Investment Outlook for 2015
ABRIDGED RELEASE FOR PUBLIC DISSEMINATION
John Winsell Davies
CIO - Fund Manager
The ‘New Charismatics’, leadership and financial markets
- in the post-consensus, post-parliamentarian world
Narendra Modi - Gujarati brand of compassionate conservatism
Xi Jinping - Bigger than Moa, stocks trump ‘SUFFR’
Shinzō Abe - Brave Diet; audentes fortuna Iuvat ... and Abe
Joko Widodo - Clove Revolution ‘A New Hope’, the Luke Skywalker of Asia
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - Badder than Bin Laden, ‘Black Crow’ event in the making
Enrique Peña Nieto - PEMEX RIP, Mano e mano with El Jefe, Yo Soy 132 be damned
Hassan Rouhani - The promise of Khatami realised 2015? EM investors refocus on Iran
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin - VVP’s Russia, the endgame as I see it
Kim Jong-un - Fun Boy Three, no laughing matter
Emerging Markets corporate governance mandates
- total return not ideology
Where is the floor? Marginal supply and the economics of unconventional oil production
The Dollar Bully World - Captain America still feeling Marvel-lous
What’ll it be? Call drinks for in the New Year
Asset allocation - Huntington, Hopkins, Stanford and Crocker
Geographic dispersion - favoured destinations
Industry sector - priority focus
... Independent Global Macro and Emerging Market Investment Analysis
This is an original opinion piece which may not reflect the views of the Firm
No other parties contributed to the production of this publication; the opinions expressed here are his own
Registered in England and Wales: 02895959 | Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority: 170913
- The book uses a fictional fishing economy called Usonia to explain how the US economy grew through technological developments and the roles of government, central banking, and private sector investment and savings.
- It shows how excess investment in real estate and a decline in the real value of money can cause economic disasters. It also portrays how corrupt governments can create illusionary wealth through artificial assets.
- The book warns that easy monetary policies can lead to inflation, job losses, and business failures. It expresses concern that US fiscal deficits and a questionable currency could put the US on a path similar to past economic collapses in other nations if not addressed.
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timessatya saurabh khosla
The author's article that appeared in Business Times, Singapore on Oct 4, 2007 stated that USA Housing, low interest rates and derivatives will lead the global economy into a recession
The document discusses how the recession has impacted the luxury goods industry. It summarizes that:
- The luxury market has shrunk significantly as consumers can no longer afford luxury goods and attitudes towards conspicuous consumption have changed.
- Luxury brands are shifting away from mass-market strategies and logos to focus on quality and sustainability. However, emerging markets like China are becoming important growth areas.
- In developed nations, there is now a stigma against flaunting wealth given job losses. The ultra-wealthy are embracing frugality and discretion in their purchasing to avoid "luxury shame."
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
- The US presidential election of Donald Trump was unexpected but may not lead to significant changes in policy due to constraints on implementing radical changes.
- Trump's economic proposals include tax cuts to boost growth, but the current global situation is different than in Reagan's time and tax cuts may not have the same effect.
- The world economy is now more complex and interconnected, influenced by events like conflicts in the Middle East, so outcomes are less predictable than in prior models and small decisions can have large impacts through amplification. Predicting the effects of Trump's policies is difficult in this new economic environment.
- In October 2008, global stock markets experienced their worst month since the 1987 crash as fears about the health of the world economy rose sharply. The S&P 500 fell over 23% during the first eight trading days alone.
- The credit crisis that began with the housing bust in the US escalated in September with Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, igniting a wave of risk aversion across markets. Selling accelerated as investors fled stocks and hedge funds were forced to dump holdings.
- Central banks around the world coordinated unprecedented interest rate cuts and liquidity measures. Governments also allocated over $3 trillion for bailouts and stimulus to stabilize markets and confidence. These actions helped pare losses by month's end.
This document provides an introduction and analysis of the 2008 global financial crisis from an Islamic economic perspective. It summarizes that the crisis marked the beginning of the end of global capitalism due to the failure of its key principles around interest-based banking, fiat currency, and unregulated financial markets. The author argues that Islam provides a viable alternative economic model with principles like gold/silver-backed currency, interest-free lending, and clear rules around trade and public/private ownership that could bring greater stability and fairness. The crisis is seen as an opportunity for the Muslim world to establish this Islamic system as an alternative to the inevitable boom-bust cycles of capitalism.
This document summarizes economic trends from September 2009. It discusses six factors driving economic growth: 1) massive stimulus spending, 2) businesses reversing purges, 3) rising confidence, 4) housing and auto industries stabilizing, 5) improving exports, and 6) stalled increases in mortgage rates and oil prices. It argues the recovery will continue surpassing expectations with 4% GDP growth. It also says the consumer's role is unclear and inflation will likely remain stable.
Post Globalization Issues and Power shift of the CenturyZeeshanMajeed15
GlobalizationWe can define globalization as the increasing interdependence and integration of economies, markets, nations, and cultures.
OR
Globalization envisages a borderless world or seeks the world as a global village.
OR
Globalization is the flow across national borders of trade, finance, people, and of course ideas.
Power shift of the CenturyEra of globalization is ending and giving way to new power centers.
Globalization world was where interconnectedness and the people used to do the same in terms of law and approaches but now we are witnessing the clash of civilizations.
We are now going to a multipolar world where at least three big regions do things increasingly differently.
The document discusses several topics including:
1. Investment strategies that favor cash, midstream energy MLPs, metals, municipal bonds, and mutual funds focused on dividend growth companies.
2. The causes and impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, including widespread wealth destruction and the need for government intervention to stabilize financial systems.
3. Political dysfunctions that stem from dualistic thinking and an overemphasis on differences rather than a nondual approach that celebrates unity and interconnection.
The document summarizes concerns investors have about Greece, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and China's economic slowdown. Regarding Greece, the author argues that while a default would be embarrassing, it would likely not trigger a global financial crisis. On the Federal Reserve, the author claims fears of an asset bubble are overblown and low rates remain warranted. Finally, the author asserts that while China's economy is slowing, it is transitioning in a managed way and is not a threat to cause a global financial crisis through its debt problems.
She adores hats. She is always very polite and respectful of others. She waves to everyone, and consistently avoids conflict. She is a lady; she is The Queen.
Without a doubt, Queen Elizabeth lives a life quite unlike everyone else in the World – after all, royalty does have its privileges. Yet, when it comes to investing, the Queen is swimming in the same pool of stock market sharks as us common people.
Like everyone else, she pours through her quarterly statements to see how she’s fared. And like everyone else, she loves to make money and simply deplores negative returns. It was rumored that the 2008 crisis hit her particularly hard – over USD 40 million in stock market losses.
This experience must have jilted something, as when The Queen was visiting the esteemed London School of Economics she asked the professor a rather “un-queen” like question – why did economists fail to predict the biggest global recession since the Great Depression?
The document provides a macroeconomic update and discusses several topics:
1) Demographics are an important factor in economic growth, and western countries face challenges from aging populations while emerging economies like China have younger populations.
2) Up to 40% of US corporate profits come from the finance sector, disproportionately benefiting from monetary policies.
3) US policies have the effect of exporting inflation to trading partners through currency devaluations.
4) Government deficits and debt are growing much faster than tax receipts in many developed nations, risking unsustainable trajectories.
RESEARCH - The Fairfax Monitor - Edition 2Stephen Martin
The document discusses whether the current economic environment is more likely to lead to inflation or deflation. It analyzes factors influencing the debate such as declining asset prices, falling consumer demand, and aggressive monetary stimulus by central banks. While central banks have taken inflationary actions, the document concludes deflation remains the greater threat due to continued weakness in the banking system, low consumer spending, and lack of signs of rising inflation. The environment favors bonds over stocks and commodities in the near term until the banking system shows more stability.
The document contains predictions from Saxo Bank analysts for the year 2016. Some of the key predictions include:
1) The Euro will rise against the US dollar to 1.23 by the end of 2016 as the US dollar peaks at the start of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hiking cycle.
2) The Russian rouble will be the best performing currency in 2016, rising 20% against the US dollar/euro basket as oil prices surge and geopolitical tensions ease.
3) Valuations of tech startups, known as unicorns, will be reduced by more than half as public markets refuse to pay inflated private market valuations, slowing venture capital funding.
4) Brazil will
This document discusses key drivers of long-term equity returns and compares emerging and developed markets based on these factors over the next 10 years. It finds that emerging markets have enjoyed better demographic trends historically and this should continue, with South Africa, India and Mexico projected to see the largest reduction in dependency ratios and increase in prime savers. However, better demographics do not guarantee economic growth or equity performance. By analyzing growth, bond yields, and demographic trends, the report concludes India, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines have the best long-term equity return outlook, while the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Switzerland have the worst.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
This document discusses computer-aided education in rural India. It notes that computing knowledge is important for human development. Schools in India follow traditional pedagogy, with beliefs in cognitive enhancement. Studies found that schools with actively involved teachers saw greater student impact from computer-aided learning (CAL) programs. It was also found that training existing teachers and encouraging students, parents, and guardians helped. The document concludes that implementing CAL and information and communication technology has socio-economic impacts and supports children's holistic development.
This document discusses the history and development of roads. It outlines that early roads were simple footpaths and trails, but the Romans developed some of the most advanced highway systems in the ancient world. After the decline of the Roman Empire, roads fell into disrepair. Road building techniques improved in the 18th century. The document also notes that roads play a key role in strengthening economies and facilitating commerce and transportation. It provides examples of major roads like the Trans-Canada Highway.
- The book uses a fictional fishing economy called Usonia to explain how the US economy grew through technological developments and the roles of government, central banking, and private sector investment and savings.
- It shows how excess investment in real estate and a decline in the real value of money can cause economic disasters. It also portrays how corrupt governments can create illusionary wealth through artificial assets.
- The book warns that easy monetary policies can lead to inflation, job losses, and business failures. It expresses concern that US fiscal deficits and a questionable currency could put the US on a path similar to past economic collapses in other nations if not addressed.
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timessatya saurabh khosla
The author's article that appeared in Business Times, Singapore on Oct 4, 2007 stated that USA Housing, low interest rates and derivatives will lead the global economy into a recession
The document discusses how the recession has impacted the luxury goods industry. It summarizes that:
- The luxury market has shrunk significantly as consumers can no longer afford luxury goods and attitudes towards conspicuous consumption have changed.
- Luxury brands are shifting away from mass-market strategies and logos to focus on quality and sustainability. However, emerging markets like China are becoming important growth areas.
- In developed nations, there is now a stigma against flaunting wealth given job losses. The ultra-wealthy are embracing frugality and discretion in their purchasing to avoid "luxury shame."
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
- The US presidential election of Donald Trump was unexpected but may not lead to significant changes in policy due to constraints on implementing radical changes.
- Trump's economic proposals include tax cuts to boost growth, but the current global situation is different than in Reagan's time and tax cuts may not have the same effect.
- The world economy is now more complex and interconnected, influenced by events like conflicts in the Middle East, so outcomes are less predictable than in prior models and small decisions can have large impacts through amplification. Predicting the effects of Trump's policies is difficult in this new economic environment.
- In October 2008, global stock markets experienced their worst month since the 1987 crash as fears about the health of the world economy rose sharply. The S&P 500 fell over 23% during the first eight trading days alone.
- The credit crisis that began with the housing bust in the US escalated in September with Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, igniting a wave of risk aversion across markets. Selling accelerated as investors fled stocks and hedge funds were forced to dump holdings.
- Central banks around the world coordinated unprecedented interest rate cuts and liquidity measures. Governments also allocated over $3 trillion for bailouts and stimulus to stabilize markets and confidence. These actions helped pare losses by month's end.
This document provides an introduction and analysis of the 2008 global financial crisis from an Islamic economic perspective. It summarizes that the crisis marked the beginning of the end of global capitalism due to the failure of its key principles around interest-based banking, fiat currency, and unregulated financial markets. The author argues that Islam provides a viable alternative economic model with principles like gold/silver-backed currency, interest-free lending, and clear rules around trade and public/private ownership that could bring greater stability and fairness. The crisis is seen as an opportunity for the Muslim world to establish this Islamic system as an alternative to the inevitable boom-bust cycles of capitalism.
This document summarizes economic trends from September 2009. It discusses six factors driving economic growth: 1) massive stimulus spending, 2) businesses reversing purges, 3) rising confidence, 4) housing and auto industries stabilizing, 5) improving exports, and 6) stalled increases in mortgage rates and oil prices. It argues the recovery will continue surpassing expectations with 4% GDP growth. It also says the consumer's role is unclear and inflation will likely remain stable.
Post Globalization Issues and Power shift of the CenturyZeeshanMajeed15
GlobalizationWe can define globalization as the increasing interdependence and integration of economies, markets, nations, and cultures.
OR
Globalization envisages a borderless world or seeks the world as a global village.
OR
Globalization is the flow across national borders of trade, finance, people, and of course ideas.
Power shift of the CenturyEra of globalization is ending and giving way to new power centers.
Globalization world was where interconnectedness and the people used to do the same in terms of law and approaches but now we are witnessing the clash of civilizations.
We are now going to a multipolar world where at least three big regions do things increasingly differently.
The document discusses several topics including:
1. Investment strategies that favor cash, midstream energy MLPs, metals, municipal bonds, and mutual funds focused on dividend growth companies.
2. The causes and impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, including widespread wealth destruction and the need for government intervention to stabilize financial systems.
3. Political dysfunctions that stem from dualistic thinking and an overemphasis on differences rather than a nondual approach that celebrates unity and interconnection.
The document summarizes concerns investors have about Greece, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and China's economic slowdown. Regarding Greece, the author argues that while a default would be embarrassing, it would likely not trigger a global financial crisis. On the Federal Reserve, the author claims fears of an asset bubble are overblown and low rates remain warranted. Finally, the author asserts that while China's economy is slowing, it is transitioning in a managed way and is not a threat to cause a global financial crisis through its debt problems.
She adores hats. She is always very polite and respectful of others. She waves to everyone, and consistently avoids conflict. She is a lady; she is The Queen.
Without a doubt, Queen Elizabeth lives a life quite unlike everyone else in the World – after all, royalty does have its privileges. Yet, when it comes to investing, the Queen is swimming in the same pool of stock market sharks as us common people.
Like everyone else, she pours through her quarterly statements to see how she’s fared. And like everyone else, she loves to make money and simply deplores negative returns. It was rumored that the 2008 crisis hit her particularly hard – over USD 40 million in stock market losses.
This experience must have jilted something, as when The Queen was visiting the esteemed London School of Economics she asked the professor a rather “un-queen” like question – why did economists fail to predict the biggest global recession since the Great Depression?
The document provides a macroeconomic update and discusses several topics:
1) Demographics are an important factor in economic growth, and western countries face challenges from aging populations while emerging economies like China have younger populations.
2) Up to 40% of US corporate profits come from the finance sector, disproportionately benefiting from monetary policies.
3) US policies have the effect of exporting inflation to trading partners through currency devaluations.
4) Government deficits and debt are growing much faster than tax receipts in many developed nations, risking unsustainable trajectories.
RESEARCH - The Fairfax Monitor - Edition 2Stephen Martin
The document discusses whether the current economic environment is more likely to lead to inflation or deflation. It analyzes factors influencing the debate such as declining asset prices, falling consumer demand, and aggressive monetary stimulus by central banks. While central banks have taken inflationary actions, the document concludes deflation remains the greater threat due to continued weakness in the banking system, low consumer spending, and lack of signs of rising inflation. The environment favors bonds over stocks and commodities in the near term until the banking system shows more stability.
The document contains predictions from Saxo Bank analysts for the year 2016. Some of the key predictions include:
1) The Euro will rise against the US dollar to 1.23 by the end of 2016 as the US dollar peaks at the start of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hiking cycle.
2) The Russian rouble will be the best performing currency in 2016, rising 20% against the US dollar/euro basket as oil prices surge and geopolitical tensions ease.
3) Valuations of tech startups, known as unicorns, will be reduced by more than half as public markets refuse to pay inflated private market valuations, slowing venture capital funding.
4) Brazil will
This document discusses key drivers of long-term equity returns and compares emerging and developed markets based on these factors over the next 10 years. It finds that emerging markets have enjoyed better demographic trends historically and this should continue, with South Africa, India and Mexico projected to see the largest reduction in dependency ratios and increase in prime savers. However, better demographics do not guarantee economic growth or equity performance. By analyzing growth, bond yields, and demographic trends, the report concludes India, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines have the best long-term equity return outlook, while the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Switzerland have the worst.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
This document discusses computer-aided education in rural India. It notes that computing knowledge is important for human development. Schools in India follow traditional pedagogy, with beliefs in cognitive enhancement. Studies found that schools with actively involved teachers saw greater student impact from computer-aided learning (CAL) programs. It was also found that training existing teachers and encouraging students, parents, and guardians helped. The document concludes that implementing CAL and information and communication technology has socio-economic impacts and supports children's holistic development.
This document discusses the history and development of roads. It outlines that early roads were simple footpaths and trails, but the Romans developed some of the most advanced highway systems in the ancient world. After the decline of the Roman Empire, roads fell into disrepair. Road building techniques improved in the 18th century. The document also notes that roads play a key role in strengthening economies and facilitating commerce and transportation. It provides examples of major roads like the Trans-Canada Highway.
The document discusses different types of sequences and series that the author has learned, including:
1. Arithmetic sequences, where each term is obtained by adding a constant to the preceding term. The author provides examples of finding the common difference and the nth term.
2. Geometric sequences, where each term is obtained by multiplying the preceding term by a constant ratio. Examples are given for finding the common ratio and the nth term.
3. Harmonic sequences, where the reciprocals of the terms form an arithmetic sequence.
4. Fibonacci sequences, where each term is the sum of the two preceding terms, following the pattern of rabbit populations.
The author reflects on appreciating patterns in nature
Meem is a next generation retail bank in Saudi Arabia that focuses on mobile and online banking. It has no physical tellers and relies on customers promoting the bank through social media. The bank was created over 4 years and provides simple products, transparency, and technology to improve customers' lives. It was developed through crowd-sourcing ideas from 30,000 social media fans.
Internet protocols are sets of rules that govern communication between computers on a network by defining message formats. Timing is crucial, as protocols require messages to arrive within a certain timeframe and specify alternative actions if timing rules are not met. Protocols are organized into layered suites, where each layer depends on the proper functioning of other layers.
Este documento describe los órganos del aparato reproductor femenino, incluyendo los ovarios, las trompas de Falopio, el útero y la vagina. Describe la localización, estructura, relaciones y función de cada órgano. También explica los cambios hormonales que ocurren durante el ciclo menstrual y la fecundación.
Este documento describe la anatomía del esfenoides. El esfenoides es un hueso irregular ubicado en la parte anterior y media de la cavidad craneal. Presenta seis caras y articula con otros huesos formando conductos por los que pasan nervios y vasos sanguíneos importantes. El esfenoides juega un papel clave en la anatomía craneal.
Este documento describe las características de la clavícula y el omóplato. La clavícula es un hueso largo y no simétrico en forma de S italiana situado transversalmente entre el esternón y el omóplato. El omóplato es un hueso aplanado y delgado de forma triangular aplicado contra la parte posterior y superior del tórax. Ambos huesos presentan caras, bordes y extremos específicos.
Group 18 of the periodic table contains the noble gases: helium, neon, argon, krypton, xenon, and radon. All noble gases are monoatomic gases that are chemically unreactive due to their stable electronic configurations. Xenon can form some compounds with highly electronegative elements like fluorine and oxygen. Xenon fluorides like XeF2 and XeF6 are powerful fluorinating agents. While most noble gases have no significant uses, argon is used for welding and as an inert atmosphere, and neon is used in signs and greenhouses.
This document discusses the history and development of roads. It outlines that early roads were simple footpaths and trails, and the Romans later developed some of the most advanced highway systems in the ancient world. It then discusses how roads declined after the fall of the Roman Empire but saw a revival in the 18th century. The document also notes that roads play a key role in strengthening economies and increasing mobility, and provides examples like the Trans-Canada Highway. It examines classifications of roads and some environmental impacts.
This document provides information on various manufacturing industries in India, including their classification, location factors, and importance to the economy. It discusses key industries such as cotton, jute, sugar, iron and steel, aluminium, chemicals, fertilizers, cement, automobiles, and information technology. It also addresses the pollution problems caused by industries and some measures to reduce environmental degradation.
This document discusses the doctrine of separation of powers in the Philippines. It begins with a brief history of the concept dating back to Aristotle and mentions its inclusion in modern constitutions. The doctrine divides government power into three branches - executive, legislative, and judicial. Each branch is supreme in its own sphere but has checks on its power by the other branches. The purpose is to prevent monopoly of power and despotism. In the Philippines, the executive branch is headed by the president and enforces laws. The legislative branch is Congress, composed of the Senate and House of Representatives.
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This document provides an introduction to Niall Ferguson's book "The Ascent of Money". It discusses how money has come to matter greatly in modern society, despite longstanding prejudices against finance. The introduction argues that financial innovation has been crucial to human progress, from the rise of early civilizations to modern economic growth. It previews how the book will illuminate important financial histories and secrets behind major historical events and eras. The rapid growth of modern financial systems on a global scale is also noted. In short, the introduction frames the book as a financial history of the world aimed at demonstrating the essential role of money and finance in human advancement.
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This document provides an introduction to Niall Ferguson's book "The Ascent of Money". It discusses how money matters greatly in the world despite prejudices against it. It notes the large income inequality between average Americans and top bankers/hedge fund managers. The introduction sets up that the book will examine the history of money and finance and how it has evolved and shaped history. It acknowledges long-standing hostilities toward finance but argues that money is the root of most human progress.
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Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
The document summarizes findings from a survey conducted by Euro RSCG Worldwide of 500 Americans. Key findings include:
1) American women report higher levels of worry across many issues than American men, including concerns about health care, crime, aging problems, and loss of trusted leaders. Women feel many losses from modern life more acutely than men.
2) Both American men and women named running out of money as their biggest worry about aging. However, women showed higher levels of worry than men for almost all other aspects of aging.
3) Compared to a decade ago, Americans' views on politics, the economy, and the American Dream have experienced major shifts. Events like 9/11, the
The 2008 financial crisis caused widespread confusion and challenged established beliefs. Economists largely failed to predict the crisis due to two key errors: extrapolating past trends without recognizing growing risks, and overstating the ability of financial innovation to spread and reduce risk. Mounting household, financial, and total debt in countries like the US and UK fueled risk, yet models treated debt as benign. The crisis exposed flaws in the dominant view of a "New Age" financial system that could sustain unlimited, riskless debt.
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1) The document discusses how the world is facing an imminent economic and social disaster due to decades of monetary mismanagement, debt accumulation, and moral and financial decadence.
2) Rising food and fuel prices are causing empty stomachs to riot in many countries, leading to regime changes, and this instability will likely spread across the globe.
3) The world is on the precipice of a hyperinflationary depression of unprecedented scale, as real money, food, and fuel are running out simultaneously just as governments have no ability to alleviate problems and stave off disaster.
1) Real estate bubbles occur regularly about every 20 years when excess liquidity and speculation drives up property values beyond what rental income can support.
2) Bubbles are difficult to identify as they occur but show signs like supply growing faster than demand, capital values rising much more than income, and speculation and "crowd think" driving the market.
3) Once bubbles burst, the aftermath can be painful as property values, incomes, and demand fall sharply which then takes over a decade to recover from. Human nature and short memories mean bubbles continue recurring.
The document provides an introduction to the Amphora Report newsletter. It summarizes the unprecedented actions taken by central banks in response to the 2008 financial crisis, which has led to speculation that the US dollar may lose its status as the dominant global reserve currency. The report argues that no single currency appears able to replace the dollar and that broad diversification is now the best way to protect wealth. It then discusses the appointment of Paul Volcker as Federal Reserve Chairman in 1979 and his immediate push for tighter monetary policy to address high inflation.
The politics, economics, and rhetoric of inequality have been inescapable over the past year. Not since the Gilded Age have we had such vigorous debates over the concentration of wealth and the gap between the rich and the poor. And not just in the United States. In China, where new fortunes are minted daily; in Europe, where social nets are fraying amid economic crises; and in India, where a gleaming technology industry coexists with Dickensian poverty, income inequality is a prominent and often divisive debate.
Among the dozens of books on economics that have crossed my desk in recent months, three in particular have helped illuminate the nature and impact—and resilience—of inequality in our world. One, far and away the best and most important book on economics of the year, is an academic tome on the progression, regression, and rebirth of inequality in Western Europe and the United States. One is a journalistic narrative that takes us deep into modern China, where rampant growth is simultaneously lifting millions from poverty and spawning unprecedented inequality. And one is a memoir of the feverish crisis years in the United States’ financial system, which inadvertently explains how the financial industry was able to reconstitute its fortunes so rapidly after the epic debacle of 2008.
The Decade Report (EXCERPT) - Ten Years of War, Crisis, Disaster and Financia...thedecadereport
The Decade Report is a provocatively entertaining ten-year review of American politics, people and trends. The easy-to-grip book is filled with jaw-dropping facts and figures along with LOL cartoons and commentary. The authors take on the decade’s most fascinating events and most alarming trends is guaranteed to vex liberals and conservatives alike. Before you vote, exercise your right to be informed. Read The Decade Report.
WARNING: This book may trigger the reader’s governmental fight or flight response.
Full version available at http://www.thedecadereport.com. Available on Kindle Fire & Apple iBooks
The Decade Report (EXCERPT) - Ten Years of War, Crisis, Disaster and Financia...
A Never Ending Story August 1999
1. ESSAYS
A never ending story
August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS (416) 842-6630
Paul Summerville, Chief Economist Ian Beauchamp, Chief Economist (Europe)
John Johnston, Chief Economist (Americas) DavidWolf, Economist (Europe)
CraigAlexander (Economist) Su-Lin Ong, Senior Economist (Australia/New Zealand)
Trish Hay, Associate
The wonder of it all.
The effortless expansion of the
United States’ economy is now
widely expected to race into its ninth
year—itslongestexpansionever.Today,the
U.S. economy measures $13 trillion Canadian
dollars—almosttwiceasbigasatthebeginningof
the1990s.Canada,meanwhile,stumbledthroughmostof
this decade dealing with the assorted economic demons of
inflation,debts,deficits,anddollardecline,growingbyonlyathirdofits
1990 size. Given that Canada’s economy is roughly a trillion dollars, this means
that the United States grew by almost six and half Canada’s over the last nine years!
Œ
2. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS2 Œ
Economic Highlights: Americas
Canadians can take heart if they choose because their tale is not much
different than those of Japan, Germany, France and the other major
economies when stacked up against the U.S. A more frightening
comparison perhaps exists with Russia, once thought to beAmerica’s
eternal global rival.When the BerlinWall came tumbling down, the
American economy was six times larger than the Russian economy:
today, it is 53 times larger. Only a forest of aging nuclear weapons and
the capacity for much mischief keep Russia at the table of important
powers.TheonlymajorexceptiontoAmerica’sgoldmedalperformance
is China, which started the 1990s with an economy 14 times smaller
than the U.S. and finished just eight times smaller.
Apparently, there is no end in sight. Barring the odd doomsayer, the
professional forecasting community seems unprepared to argue that
there is anything imminent which can stop theAmerican economic
juggernaut—withthepossibleexceptionofaY2Kdisaster,ariskthat
hasledthegreatestWall Streetprophetofmillenniumdoom,EdYardeni,
to forecast a 7% drop in GDPin the first quarter next year.
Nevertheless, there appears to be a universal belief that the U.S. is too
efficient,tooproductive,toopowerfulandrunbytoomanysmartpeople,
principal among themAlan Greenspan, for the economy to suffer any
breakinitscurrentupswing.Infact,thesuggestionthatanythingother
thanacontinuationofAmerica’seconomicexpansionmayoccurborders
on heresy, or is at least considered the conclusion of some very poor
economics. Given record high consumer and corporate confidence
indicators,itisprobablyfairtoarguethatintheUnitedStatestoday—
both onWall and Main Streets— the belief in a virtually permanent
upswing in the U.S. economy is as widely held as anyAmerican belief,
withthepossibleexceptionofthesupremacyofasocietybasedonthe
rights of the individual over the community.Weholdthesetruthstobe
self-evident .....
Some of the economics supporting this perpetually happy story are
verysound.Itbeginswithapainfulrestructuringofthemanufacturing
economy in the early 1980s, followed by a similar event in the service
and finance industries by the end of the last recession in 1991. The
labour market has proven exceptionably flexible, notable for the
movementofpeopleinmid-careerfromoneindustrywhereproductivity
is lower to one where it is higher, helping to keep wage pressures
relativelysubdueddespiteanexceptionallytightlabourmarket.Coupled
withalongspanofrecord-breakingproductivityperformance,inflation
has remained at bay.
Amercia’s gold medal
No end in sight
Solid foundation
3. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS3 Œ
Economic Highlights: Americas
Beyondthesefactors,however,theU.S.economyhasreallybeendriven
by a breathtaking pace of investment in computers and related
technologies.America’s investment in computers has risen by over
1,100% in this decade, from a little less than 1% of GDP to over 5%,
creatinginitswakeafinancialmarketmaniathatisalreadybeingtalked
aboutintermsofDutchtulips,Japanesebankshares,andFloridaland
deals.Theinvestmentincomputershasnotonlypropelledgrowthbutit
has,moreimportantly,giventhisexpansionthatspecialmagic,acertain
savoirfaire, that every new age demands.We are in a new paradigm,
a new era, on a new economic voyage free of nasty economists’
nightmares like cycles and inflation, and where there are only booms,
neverbusts.
ThishasunleashedtheAmericanconsumerwho,intherecession-racked
globaleconomyof1998,wasaloneresponsibleforroughly55%ofthe
world’s total growth. Booms in luxury goods, wars over nannies, un-
heard of sums being paid for weddings, bar mitzvahs, sweet sixteens,
andeverydaysportinggoodsatcharityauctions,confirmthatthemagic
hasleaptfromthefinancialmarketstothefamilyroomsofmiddleAmerica.
We are told that the pace of mansion building (the 20,000 square foot
home) now rivals the late 1920s, and in fact, that more mansions have
been built in the last five years than in the previous 65.At the same
time, day-trading waiters and waitresses, truck drivers, secretaries,
economists, journalists and — well, just about everyone — is trying
to get their very big piece of theAmerican pie. And for just $19.99
a trade.
Maybe one of the best examples of the excess that has gripped the
imaginationoftheAmericaninvestingpublicistheTVcommercialfor
an on-line trading service that shows an everyday Joe in a beat-up
pick-uptruckexplainingtoaneatlydressedbutdecidedlymiddle-class
businessmanthathehasjustpickeduphitchhikinghowhehasmadea
fortune day trading, and has his own island to show for it. His own
island. I went into the jungle a young man and came out rich,
fabulously rich.
Theremarkablemessageofthiscommercialisthatitisonlythecostof
the trade and not the analysis that went into making the correct trade
thatisthedifferencebetweengreatwealthandgettingby.Anybodycan
do it.We live in a new era, it will never end, make sure you are fully
invested,besmartanddoyourtradingon-line,theeconomywillnever
slow, Greenspan is God, buy bigger, make sure you get your piece of
the action.And so on. The wonder of it all.
Computers, computers, computers
The consumer unleashed
I’ve always wanted my own island
4. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS4 Œ
Here, perhaps, are a few thoughts from a cosmologist that might help
sort out what is going on. In Carl Sagan’s 1996 book The Demon
Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, we are taught that
the human species organizes its world around two poles, wonder and
skepticism, and that the pole of wonder has been around the longest
(about 13,000 years according to cave paintings) and consequently
hasthegreatestattractionforthehumanspecies.Peoplewereprepared
tobelievetheweirdestthings—thattheearthwasflat,thattwoobjects
ofdifferentweightdroppedfromthesamepointonearthwouldarrive
at different times, and that the sun revolved around the earth — until
science came along and brushed aside the wonder. Today, weird
wondersremainatthecentreofthepopularconsciousnesswithbelief
in pyramid power, astrology, ghosts, and alien abduction and
impregnation (both seem to come hand in hand, particularly among
females);beliefthatwecanspendmuchmorethanweearnindefinitely;
andthatAnastasia,JFKandElvislive,andmany,manyotherthings.
Skepticismliketheskeptichasalwayshadatoughertime.Although in
recentyears,likethelasttwocenturies,thingsarelookingup.Skeptics
unpreparedtofallinlinewiththecurrenteconomic,political,religious,
or cultural fashion in past centuries (and in some countries today as
well) were often shunned, excluded, jailed, exiled, mutilated, burnt at
thestake,putontherack,murdered,etc.Skepticsusuallyrailedagainst
the prevailing wonder, tried to poke holes in the consensus, shake
commonthinking,warnagainstthemob’stidalwaveofthinkingwhich,
in one way or another, would doom all to some common catastrophe,
or just point to a better way to make shirts. In the last two centuries,
however,skepticismhasfoundafantasticallyinthescientificmethod.
Verifiable,repeatableexperimentsdoneanywherebyanyonebasedon
scientificthinking,somethingthatthetheoreticalnuclearphysicistAlan
Cromer has argued is ‘an oasis in the midst of a vast desert of human
confusion’.Indeed.
The language used to describe the current and future state of the U.S.
economyandmarketsseemsfirmlyrootedinwonder,blindtothesiren
callsofskepticaleconomists,howeverfewtheremaybe.Nevertheless,
ifoneispreparedtobelieveinthescientificmethodasitappliestothe
studyofeconomiesandmarkets,thereisampleevidenceoftremendous
risks in the U.S. economy today, enough to forecast a recession as
soonasnextyearwithorwithoutY2Kturmoil,mostlikelywithout.
What’s going on?
A recession, really?
5. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS5 Œ
Key Financial Indicators
ThethesisbeginswithapremisethatAlanGreenspanandtheFedwere
not in control of monetary policy from the autumn of 1997 until the
spring of 1999, calamity was. In the late autumn of 1997 all records
confirmthattheFedwasonthevergeofcontinuingtotightenmonetary
policy but that the near default of South Korea put the Fed on hold,
leadingtheU.S.bondmarkettoriseatthefinancialmarketequivalent
of the speed of light, while the stock market and economy took off to
unparalleledheights.Theninthesummerof1998,aRussiandebtcrisis
exposedtheworld’sfinancialsystemtoa1930’s-typebust,leadingthe
Fed to cut rates three times in seven weeks at a time when the U.S.
economy was growing by more than 6% and the unemployment rate
wasflirtingwithpost-warlows.
The externally induced change in the U.S. interest-rate environment
altered the country’s economic gravity and with it has come — and
hereisthescience—verifiableandquantifiabledistortionsintheU.S.
economyandmarketonamagnitudeunseenbefore,withthepossible
exceptionofJapaninthelate1980s. Amongthemanydistortions,and
trying hard to avoid the scientific jargon of the economist without
abandoningthescience,onedistortioninparticularstandsout.
America’sprivatesectorsavingsrate,whichcapturesbothhouseholds
andcorporations,hasfallentodepthsunseenbeforeintheUnitedStates.
Theeconomiccyclehasalwayscoincidedwithafallinthesavingsrate
to 0% of GDPfrom recession highs of 3%.This time, however, the
savings rate has fallen to minus 4% of GDP. Obviously, any change in
thesavingsbehaviourofhouseholdsorcompaniesintheU.S.willresult
in an immediate cyclical slowdown, and quite probably a recession.
We made this point in Economic notes: The United States: Living
beyond its means, May 1999.
The IMF in its most recentWorldOutlookhas made exactly the same
point(availableatwww.imf.org),notingthatintheothergreatexamples
of post-war cyclical madness (Japan, the United Kingdom, Finland
and Sweden) each country experienced a sharp correction in private
sectornetsavingsthatprecededtheireconomicdownturns.Critically,
however, each downturn required a substantial change in the interest
rateenvironmentthataccountedforasharpreversalinthedirectionof
the savings rate. In the cases of Japan and the United Kingdom there
were substantial increases in short-term rates of 350 and 420 basis
points, respectively, and for Finland and Sweden an increase of 100
basis points.
Calamity not control
Predictable boom
No savings at all
6. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS6 Œ
InJapan’scase,thecyclicalexcesseswerejusttheicingonthecakeof
deep structural problems coupled with a decade of misguided policy
decisionswhich,innoparticularorder,includetighteningmonetarypolicy
tofightdeflation,allowingaspeculativeriseinthevalueoftheyen,and
raising taxes just as the economy showed signs of climbing out of a
seven-year downturn. Whatever nasty climax to the current cyclical
distortionsawaitstheU.S.,itseemsthatneitherthestructuralproblems
norcompletelackofthescienceofeconomicsdemonstratedbyJapan
will bury the U.S., or so we hope.
Leaving science behind for a moment, let me share a personal story.
One that you’re more likely to remember than the depths to which
America’s private sector savings rate has plummeted but thankfully
makes more or less the same point. The names have been changed to
protecttheinnocent.
Recently, a 40-something rent-protected music teacher in NewYork
borrowed$30,000(realdollars)tobuildamusicstudioinhisapartment,
financing it on a number of credit cards. Credit cards?! Cash balances
at17.5%?!No,thisteacherwassmartenoughtocollectthesix-month
credit card company introductory offers of 5.0% on credit card cash
balances and flip one cash balance to another card as its time came
due.That, unfortunately, is not the punch line.The punch line is that
everyone is doing it. Everyone, like all the other music teachers, and
taxidrivers,andsocialworkers,andsecretaries,andcoffeeshopowners,
and, and, and ....
In LatinAmerica in the early 1980s they called this form of financial
sleight of hand thebicycle and,likeallbicycles,oncethebrakesarehit
theyslowdownveryquickly,andoftenevenfallover.Inthelastweek
of June, with the world apparently out of danger, the Fed started to
applythebrakesbyraisinginterestrates.Itappearsthatlaterthismonth
theFedwillleanevenharderonthebrakesofabicyclethatisheading
at breakneck speed down a mountain road full of potholes.
Keep your eye on the bicycle.
Paul Summerville
Chief Economist
(416) 842-8791
Japan really got it wrong
A story ...
... with no happy ending
Watch the bicycle
7. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS7 Œ
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