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ESSAYS
A never ending story
August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS (416) 842-6630
Paul Summerville, Chief Economist Ian Beauchamp, Chief Economist (Europe)
John Johnston, Chief Economist (Americas) DavidWolf, Economist (Europe)
CraigAlexander (Economist) Su-Lin Ong, Senior Economist (Australia/New Zealand)
Trish Hay, Associate
The wonder of it all.
The effortless expansion of the
United States’ economy is now
widely expected to race into its ninth
year—itslongestexpansionever.Today,the
U.S. economy measures $13 trillion Canadian
dollars—almosttwiceasbigasatthebeginningof
the1990s.Canada,meanwhile,stumbledthroughmostof
this decade dealing with the assorted economic demons of
inflation,debts,deficits,anddollardecline,growingbyonlyathirdofits
1990 size. Given that Canada’s economy is roughly a trillion dollars, this means
that the United States grew by almost six and half Canada’s over the last nine years!
Œ
Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS2 Œ
Economic Highlights: Americas
Canadians can take heart if they choose because their tale is not much
different than those of Japan, Germany, France and the other major
economies when stacked up against the U.S. A more frightening
comparison perhaps exists with Russia, once thought to beAmerica’s
eternal global rival.When the BerlinWall came tumbling down, the
American economy was six times larger than the Russian economy:
today, it is 53 times larger. Only a forest of aging nuclear weapons and
the capacity for much mischief keep Russia at the table of important
powers.TheonlymajorexceptiontoAmerica’sgoldmedalperformance
is China, which started the 1990s with an economy 14 times smaller
than the U.S. and finished just eight times smaller.
Apparently, there is no end in sight. Barring the odd doomsayer, the
professional forecasting community seems unprepared to argue that
there is anything imminent which can stop theAmerican economic
juggernaut—withthepossibleexceptionofaY2Kdisaster,ariskthat
hasledthegreatestWall Streetprophetofmillenniumdoom,EdYardeni,
to forecast a 7% drop in GDPin the first quarter next year.
Nevertheless, there appears to be a universal belief that the U.S. is too
efficient,tooproductive,toopowerfulandrunbytoomanysmartpeople,
principal among themAlan Greenspan, for the economy to suffer any
breakinitscurrentupswing.Infact,thesuggestionthatanythingother
thanacontinuationofAmerica’seconomicexpansionmayoccurborders
on heresy, or is at least considered the conclusion of some very poor
economics. Given record high consumer and corporate confidence
indicators,itisprobablyfairtoarguethatintheUnitedStatestoday—
both onWall and Main Streets— the belief in a virtually permanent
upswing in the U.S. economy is as widely held as anyAmerican belief,
withthepossibleexceptionofthesupremacyofasocietybasedonthe
rights of the individual over the community.Weholdthesetruthstobe
self-evident .....
Some of the economics supporting this perpetually happy story are
verysound.Itbeginswithapainfulrestructuringofthemanufacturing
economy in the early 1980s, followed by a similar event in the service
and finance industries by the end of the last recession in 1991. The
labour market has proven exceptionably flexible, notable for the
movementofpeopleinmid-careerfromoneindustrywhereproductivity
is lower to one where it is higher, helping to keep wage pressures
relativelysubdueddespiteanexceptionallytightlabourmarket.Coupled
withalongspanofrecord-breakingproductivityperformance,inflation
has remained at bay.
Amercia’s gold medal
No end in sight
Solid foundation
Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS3 Œ
Economic Highlights: Americas
Beyondthesefactors,however,theU.S.economyhasreallybeendriven
by a breathtaking pace of investment in computers and related
technologies.America’s investment in computers has risen by over
1,100% in this decade, from a little less than 1% of GDP to over 5%,
creatinginitswakeafinancialmarketmaniathatisalreadybeingtalked
aboutintermsofDutchtulips,Japanesebankshares,andFloridaland
deals.Theinvestmentincomputershasnotonlypropelledgrowthbutit
has,moreimportantly,giventhisexpansionthatspecialmagic,acertain
savoirfaire, that every new age demands.We are in a new paradigm,
a new era, on a new economic voyage free of nasty economists’
nightmares like cycles and inflation, and where there are only booms,
neverbusts.
ThishasunleashedtheAmericanconsumerwho,intherecession-racked
globaleconomyof1998,wasaloneresponsibleforroughly55%ofthe
world’s total growth. Booms in luxury goods, wars over nannies, un-
heard of sums being paid for weddings, bar mitzvahs, sweet sixteens,
andeverydaysportinggoodsatcharityauctions,confirmthatthemagic
hasleaptfromthefinancialmarketstothefamilyroomsofmiddleAmerica.
We are told that the pace of mansion building (the 20,000 square foot
home) now rivals the late 1920s, and in fact, that more mansions have
been built in the last five years than in the previous 65.At the same
time, day-trading waiters and waitresses, truck drivers, secretaries,
economists, journalists and — well, just about everyone — is trying
to get their very big piece of theAmerican pie. And for just $19.99
a trade.
Maybe one of the best examples of the excess that has gripped the
imaginationoftheAmericaninvestingpublicistheTVcommercialfor
an on-line trading service that shows an everyday Joe in a beat-up
pick-uptruckexplainingtoaneatlydressedbutdecidedlymiddle-class
businessmanthathehasjustpickeduphitchhikinghowhehasmadea
fortune day trading, and has his own island to show for it. His own
island. I went into the jungle a young man and came out rich,
fabulously rich.
Theremarkablemessageofthiscommercialisthatitisonlythecostof
the trade and not the analysis that went into making the correct trade
thatisthedifferencebetweengreatwealthandgettingby.Anybodycan
do it.We live in a new era, it will never end, make sure you are fully
invested,besmartanddoyourtradingon-line,theeconomywillnever
slow, Greenspan is God, buy bigger, make sure you get your piece of
the action.And so on. The wonder of it all.
Computers, computers, computers
The consumer unleashed
I’ve always wanted my own island
Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS4 Œ
Here, perhaps, are a few thoughts from a cosmologist that might help
sort out what is going on. In Carl Sagan’s 1996 book The Demon
Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, we are taught that
the human species organizes its world around two poles, wonder and
skepticism, and that the pole of wonder has been around the longest
(about 13,000 years according to cave paintings) and consequently
hasthegreatestattractionforthehumanspecies.Peoplewereprepared
tobelievetheweirdestthings—thattheearthwasflat,thattwoobjects
ofdifferentweightdroppedfromthesamepointonearthwouldarrive
at different times, and that the sun revolved around the earth — until
science came along and brushed aside the wonder. Today, weird
wondersremainatthecentreofthepopularconsciousnesswithbelief
in pyramid power, astrology, ghosts, and alien abduction and
impregnation (both seem to come hand in hand, particularly among
females);beliefthatwecanspendmuchmorethanweearnindefinitely;
andthatAnastasia,JFKandElvislive,andmany,manyotherthings.
Skepticismliketheskeptichasalwayshadatoughertime.Although in
recentyears,likethelasttwocenturies,thingsarelookingup.Skeptics
unpreparedtofallinlinewiththecurrenteconomic,political,religious,
or cultural fashion in past centuries (and in some countries today as
well) were often shunned, excluded, jailed, exiled, mutilated, burnt at
thestake,putontherack,murdered,etc.Skepticsusuallyrailedagainst
the prevailing wonder, tried to poke holes in the consensus, shake
commonthinking,warnagainstthemob’stidalwaveofthinkingwhich,
in one way or another, would doom all to some common catastrophe,
or just point to a better way to make shirts. In the last two centuries,
however,skepticismhasfoundafantasticallyinthescientificmethod.
Verifiable,repeatableexperimentsdoneanywherebyanyonebasedon
scientificthinking,somethingthatthetheoreticalnuclearphysicistAlan
Cromer has argued is ‘an oasis in the midst of a vast desert of human
confusion’.Indeed.
The language used to describe the current and future state of the U.S.
economyandmarketsseemsfirmlyrootedinwonder,blindtothesiren
callsofskepticaleconomists,howeverfewtheremaybe.Nevertheless,
ifoneispreparedtobelieveinthescientificmethodasitappliestothe
studyofeconomiesandmarkets,thereisampleevidenceoftremendous
risks in the U.S. economy today, enough to forecast a recession as
soonasnextyearwithorwithoutY2Kturmoil,mostlikelywithout.
What’s going on?
A recession, really?
Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS5 Œ
Key Financial Indicators
ThethesisbeginswithapremisethatAlanGreenspanandtheFedwere
not in control of monetary policy from the autumn of 1997 until the
spring of 1999, calamity was. In the late autumn of 1997 all records
confirmthattheFedwasonthevergeofcontinuingtotightenmonetary
policy but that the near default of South Korea put the Fed on hold,
leadingtheU.S.bondmarkettoriseatthefinancialmarketequivalent
of the speed of light, while the stock market and economy took off to
unparalleledheights.Theninthesummerof1998,aRussiandebtcrisis
exposedtheworld’sfinancialsystemtoa1930’s-typebust,leadingthe
Fed to cut rates three times in seven weeks at a time when the U.S.
economy was growing by more than 6% and the unemployment rate
wasflirtingwithpost-warlows.
The externally induced change in the U.S. interest-rate environment
altered the country’s economic gravity and with it has come — and
hereisthescience—verifiableandquantifiabledistortionsintheU.S.
economyandmarketonamagnitudeunseenbefore,withthepossible
exceptionofJapaninthelate1980s. Amongthemanydistortions,and
trying hard to avoid the scientific jargon of the economist without
abandoningthescience,onedistortioninparticularstandsout.
America’sprivatesectorsavingsrate,whichcapturesbothhouseholds
andcorporations,hasfallentodepthsunseenbeforeintheUnitedStates.
Theeconomiccyclehasalwayscoincidedwithafallinthesavingsrate
to 0% of GDPfrom recession highs of 3%.This time, however, the
savings rate has fallen to minus 4% of GDP. Obviously, any change in
thesavingsbehaviourofhouseholdsorcompaniesintheU.S.willresult
in an immediate cyclical slowdown, and quite probably a recession.
We made this point in Economic notes: The United States: Living
beyond its means, May 1999.
The IMF in its most recentWorldOutlookhas made exactly the same
point(availableatwww.imf.org),notingthatintheothergreatexamples
of post-war cyclical madness (Japan, the United Kingdom, Finland
and Sweden) each country experienced a sharp correction in private
sectornetsavingsthatprecededtheireconomicdownturns.Critically,
however, each downturn required a substantial change in the interest
rateenvironmentthataccountedforasharpreversalinthedirectionof
the savings rate. In the cases of Japan and the United Kingdom there
were substantial increases in short-term rates of 350 and 420 basis
points, respectively, and for Finland and Sweden an increase of 100
basis points.
Calamity not control
Predictable boom
No savings at all
Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS6 Œ
InJapan’scase,thecyclicalexcesseswerejusttheicingonthecakeof
deep structural problems coupled with a decade of misguided policy
decisionswhich,innoparticularorder,includetighteningmonetarypolicy
tofightdeflation,allowingaspeculativeriseinthevalueoftheyen,and
raising taxes just as the economy showed signs of climbing out of a
seven-year downturn. Whatever nasty climax to the current cyclical
distortionsawaitstheU.S.,itseemsthatneitherthestructuralproblems
norcompletelackofthescienceofeconomicsdemonstratedbyJapan
will bury the U.S., or so we hope.
Leaving science behind for a moment, let me share a personal story.
One that you’re more likely to remember than the depths to which
America’s private sector savings rate has plummeted but thankfully
makes more or less the same point. The names have been changed to
protecttheinnocent.
Recently, a 40-something rent-protected music teacher in NewYork
borrowed$30,000(realdollars)tobuildamusicstudioinhisapartment,
financing it on a number of credit cards. Credit cards?! Cash balances
at17.5%?!No,thisteacherwassmartenoughtocollectthesix-month
credit card company introductory offers of 5.0% on credit card cash
balances and flip one cash balance to another card as its time came
due.That, unfortunately, is not the punch line.The punch line is that
everyone is doing it. Everyone, like all the other music teachers, and
taxidrivers,andsocialworkers,andsecretaries,andcoffeeshopowners,
and, and, and ....
In LatinAmerica in the early 1980s they called this form of financial
sleight of hand thebicycle and,likeallbicycles,oncethebrakesarehit
theyslowdownveryquickly,andoftenevenfallover.Inthelastweek
of June, with the world apparently out of danger, the Fed started to
applythebrakesbyraisinginterestrates.Itappearsthatlaterthismonth
theFedwillleanevenharderonthebrakesofabicyclethatisheading
at breakneck speed down a mountain road full of potholes.
Keep your eye on the bicycle.
Paul Summerville
Chief Economist
(416) 842-8791
Japan really got it wrong
A story ...
... with no happy ending
Watch the bicycle
Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999
RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS7 Œ
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A Never Ending Story August 1999

  • 1. ESSAYS A never ending story August 10, 1999 RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS (416) 842-6630 Paul Summerville, Chief Economist Ian Beauchamp, Chief Economist (Europe) John Johnston, Chief Economist (Americas) DavidWolf, Economist (Europe) CraigAlexander (Economist) Su-Lin Ong, Senior Economist (Australia/New Zealand) Trish Hay, Associate The wonder of it all. The effortless expansion of the United States’ economy is now widely expected to race into its ninth year—itslongestexpansionever.Today,the U.S. economy measures $13 trillion Canadian dollars—almosttwiceasbigasatthebeginningof the1990s.Canada,meanwhile,stumbledthroughmostof this decade dealing with the assorted economic demons of inflation,debts,deficits,anddollardecline,growingbyonlyathirdofits 1990 size. Given that Canada’s economy is roughly a trillion dollars, this means that the United States grew by almost six and half Canada’s over the last nine years! Œ
  • 2. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999 RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS2 Œ Economic Highlights: Americas Canadians can take heart if they choose because their tale is not much different than those of Japan, Germany, France and the other major economies when stacked up against the U.S. A more frightening comparison perhaps exists with Russia, once thought to beAmerica’s eternal global rival.When the BerlinWall came tumbling down, the American economy was six times larger than the Russian economy: today, it is 53 times larger. Only a forest of aging nuclear weapons and the capacity for much mischief keep Russia at the table of important powers.TheonlymajorexceptiontoAmerica’sgoldmedalperformance is China, which started the 1990s with an economy 14 times smaller than the U.S. and finished just eight times smaller. Apparently, there is no end in sight. Barring the odd doomsayer, the professional forecasting community seems unprepared to argue that there is anything imminent which can stop theAmerican economic juggernaut—withthepossibleexceptionofaY2Kdisaster,ariskthat hasledthegreatestWall Streetprophetofmillenniumdoom,EdYardeni, to forecast a 7% drop in GDPin the first quarter next year. Nevertheless, there appears to be a universal belief that the U.S. is too efficient,tooproductive,toopowerfulandrunbytoomanysmartpeople, principal among themAlan Greenspan, for the economy to suffer any breakinitscurrentupswing.Infact,thesuggestionthatanythingother thanacontinuationofAmerica’seconomicexpansionmayoccurborders on heresy, or is at least considered the conclusion of some very poor economics. Given record high consumer and corporate confidence indicators,itisprobablyfairtoarguethatintheUnitedStatestoday— both onWall and Main Streets— the belief in a virtually permanent upswing in the U.S. economy is as widely held as anyAmerican belief, withthepossibleexceptionofthesupremacyofasocietybasedonthe rights of the individual over the community.Weholdthesetruthstobe self-evident ..... Some of the economics supporting this perpetually happy story are verysound.Itbeginswithapainfulrestructuringofthemanufacturing economy in the early 1980s, followed by a similar event in the service and finance industries by the end of the last recession in 1991. The labour market has proven exceptionably flexible, notable for the movementofpeopleinmid-careerfromoneindustrywhereproductivity is lower to one where it is higher, helping to keep wage pressures relativelysubdueddespiteanexceptionallytightlabourmarket.Coupled withalongspanofrecord-breakingproductivityperformance,inflation has remained at bay. Amercia’s gold medal No end in sight Solid foundation
  • 3. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999 RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS3 Œ Economic Highlights: Americas Beyondthesefactors,however,theU.S.economyhasreallybeendriven by a breathtaking pace of investment in computers and related technologies.America’s investment in computers has risen by over 1,100% in this decade, from a little less than 1% of GDP to over 5%, creatinginitswakeafinancialmarketmaniathatisalreadybeingtalked aboutintermsofDutchtulips,Japanesebankshares,andFloridaland deals.Theinvestmentincomputershasnotonlypropelledgrowthbutit has,moreimportantly,giventhisexpansionthatspecialmagic,acertain savoirfaire, that every new age demands.We are in a new paradigm, a new era, on a new economic voyage free of nasty economists’ nightmares like cycles and inflation, and where there are only booms, neverbusts. ThishasunleashedtheAmericanconsumerwho,intherecession-racked globaleconomyof1998,wasaloneresponsibleforroughly55%ofthe world’s total growth. Booms in luxury goods, wars over nannies, un- heard of sums being paid for weddings, bar mitzvahs, sweet sixteens, andeverydaysportinggoodsatcharityauctions,confirmthatthemagic hasleaptfromthefinancialmarketstothefamilyroomsofmiddleAmerica. We are told that the pace of mansion building (the 20,000 square foot home) now rivals the late 1920s, and in fact, that more mansions have been built in the last five years than in the previous 65.At the same time, day-trading waiters and waitresses, truck drivers, secretaries, economists, journalists and — well, just about everyone — is trying to get their very big piece of theAmerican pie. And for just $19.99 a trade. Maybe one of the best examples of the excess that has gripped the imaginationoftheAmericaninvestingpublicistheTVcommercialfor an on-line trading service that shows an everyday Joe in a beat-up pick-uptruckexplainingtoaneatlydressedbutdecidedlymiddle-class businessmanthathehasjustpickeduphitchhikinghowhehasmadea fortune day trading, and has his own island to show for it. His own island. I went into the jungle a young man and came out rich, fabulously rich. Theremarkablemessageofthiscommercialisthatitisonlythecostof the trade and not the analysis that went into making the correct trade thatisthedifferencebetweengreatwealthandgettingby.Anybodycan do it.We live in a new era, it will never end, make sure you are fully invested,besmartanddoyourtradingon-line,theeconomywillnever slow, Greenspan is God, buy bigger, make sure you get your piece of the action.And so on. The wonder of it all. Computers, computers, computers The consumer unleashed I’ve always wanted my own island
  • 4. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999 RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS4 Œ Here, perhaps, are a few thoughts from a cosmologist that might help sort out what is going on. In Carl Sagan’s 1996 book The Demon Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, we are taught that the human species organizes its world around two poles, wonder and skepticism, and that the pole of wonder has been around the longest (about 13,000 years according to cave paintings) and consequently hasthegreatestattractionforthehumanspecies.Peoplewereprepared tobelievetheweirdestthings—thattheearthwasflat,thattwoobjects ofdifferentweightdroppedfromthesamepointonearthwouldarrive at different times, and that the sun revolved around the earth — until science came along and brushed aside the wonder. Today, weird wondersremainatthecentreofthepopularconsciousnesswithbelief in pyramid power, astrology, ghosts, and alien abduction and impregnation (both seem to come hand in hand, particularly among females);beliefthatwecanspendmuchmorethanweearnindefinitely; andthatAnastasia,JFKandElvislive,andmany,manyotherthings. Skepticismliketheskeptichasalwayshadatoughertime.Although in recentyears,likethelasttwocenturies,thingsarelookingup.Skeptics unpreparedtofallinlinewiththecurrenteconomic,political,religious, or cultural fashion in past centuries (and in some countries today as well) were often shunned, excluded, jailed, exiled, mutilated, burnt at thestake,putontherack,murdered,etc.Skepticsusuallyrailedagainst the prevailing wonder, tried to poke holes in the consensus, shake commonthinking,warnagainstthemob’stidalwaveofthinkingwhich, in one way or another, would doom all to some common catastrophe, or just point to a better way to make shirts. In the last two centuries, however,skepticismhasfoundafantasticallyinthescientificmethod. Verifiable,repeatableexperimentsdoneanywherebyanyonebasedon scientificthinking,somethingthatthetheoreticalnuclearphysicistAlan Cromer has argued is ‘an oasis in the midst of a vast desert of human confusion’.Indeed. The language used to describe the current and future state of the U.S. economyandmarketsseemsfirmlyrootedinwonder,blindtothesiren callsofskepticaleconomists,howeverfewtheremaybe.Nevertheless, ifoneispreparedtobelieveinthescientificmethodasitappliestothe studyofeconomiesandmarkets,thereisampleevidenceoftremendous risks in the U.S. economy today, enough to forecast a recession as soonasnextyearwithorwithoutY2Kturmoil,mostlikelywithout. What’s going on? A recession, really?
  • 5. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999 RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS5 Œ Key Financial Indicators ThethesisbeginswithapremisethatAlanGreenspanandtheFedwere not in control of monetary policy from the autumn of 1997 until the spring of 1999, calamity was. In the late autumn of 1997 all records confirmthattheFedwasonthevergeofcontinuingtotightenmonetary policy but that the near default of South Korea put the Fed on hold, leadingtheU.S.bondmarkettoriseatthefinancialmarketequivalent of the speed of light, while the stock market and economy took off to unparalleledheights.Theninthesummerof1998,aRussiandebtcrisis exposedtheworld’sfinancialsystemtoa1930’s-typebust,leadingthe Fed to cut rates three times in seven weeks at a time when the U.S. economy was growing by more than 6% and the unemployment rate wasflirtingwithpost-warlows. The externally induced change in the U.S. interest-rate environment altered the country’s economic gravity and with it has come — and hereisthescience—verifiableandquantifiabledistortionsintheU.S. economyandmarketonamagnitudeunseenbefore,withthepossible exceptionofJapaninthelate1980s. Amongthemanydistortions,and trying hard to avoid the scientific jargon of the economist without abandoningthescience,onedistortioninparticularstandsout. America’sprivatesectorsavingsrate,whichcapturesbothhouseholds andcorporations,hasfallentodepthsunseenbeforeintheUnitedStates. Theeconomiccyclehasalwayscoincidedwithafallinthesavingsrate to 0% of GDPfrom recession highs of 3%.This time, however, the savings rate has fallen to minus 4% of GDP. Obviously, any change in thesavingsbehaviourofhouseholdsorcompaniesintheU.S.willresult in an immediate cyclical slowdown, and quite probably a recession. We made this point in Economic notes: The United States: Living beyond its means, May 1999. The IMF in its most recentWorldOutlookhas made exactly the same point(availableatwww.imf.org),notingthatintheothergreatexamples of post-war cyclical madness (Japan, the United Kingdom, Finland and Sweden) each country experienced a sharp correction in private sectornetsavingsthatprecededtheireconomicdownturns.Critically, however, each downturn required a substantial change in the interest rateenvironmentthataccountedforasharpreversalinthedirectionof the savings rate. In the cases of Japan and the United Kingdom there were substantial increases in short-term rates of 350 and 420 basis points, respectively, and for Finland and Sweden an increase of 100 basis points. Calamity not control Predictable boom No savings at all
  • 6. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999 RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS6 Œ InJapan’scase,thecyclicalexcesseswerejusttheicingonthecakeof deep structural problems coupled with a decade of misguided policy decisionswhich,innoparticularorder,includetighteningmonetarypolicy tofightdeflation,allowingaspeculativeriseinthevalueoftheyen,and raising taxes just as the economy showed signs of climbing out of a seven-year downturn. Whatever nasty climax to the current cyclical distortionsawaitstheU.S.,itseemsthatneitherthestructuralproblems norcompletelackofthescienceofeconomicsdemonstratedbyJapan will bury the U.S., or so we hope. Leaving science behind for a moment, let me share a personal story. One that you’re more likely to remember than the depths to which America’s private sector savings rate has plummeted but thankfully makes more or less the same point. The names have been changed to protecttheinnocent. Recently, a 40-something rent-protected music teacher in NewYork borrowed$30,000(realdollars)tobuildamusicstudioinhisapartment, financing it on a number of credit cards. Credit cards?! Cash balances at17.5%?!No,thisteacherwassmartenoughtocollectthesix-month credit card company introductory offers of 5.0% on credit card cash balances and flip one cash balance to another card as its time came due.That, unfortunately, is not the punch line.The punch line is that everyone is doing it. Everyone, like all the other music teachers, and taxidrivers,andsocialworkers,andsecretaries,andcoffeeshopowners, and, and, and .... In LatinAmerica in the early 1980s they called this form of financial sleight of hand thebicycle and,likeallbicycles,oncethebrakesarehit theyslowdownveryquickly,andoftenevenfallover.Inthelastweek of June, with the world apparently out of danger, the Fed started to applythebrakesbyraisinginterestrates.Itappearsthatlaterthismonth theFedwillleanevenharderonthebrakesofabicyclethatisheading at breakneck speed down a mountain road full of potholes. Keep your eye on the bicycle. Paul Summerville Chief Economist (416) 842-8791 Japan really got it wrong A story ... ... with no happy ending Watch the bicycle
  • 7. Essays: A never ending story August 10, 1999 RBC DS Capital Markets Research: ECONOMICS7 Œ This page left intentionally blank.
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