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A Correction for the Full-Supplement Imputation Bias in the Current Population Survey’s Annual and Social Economic Supplement

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The document describes research analyzing bias in estimates of uninsured rates in the Current Population Survey (CPS) due to incomplete health insurance data from households. It finds the CPS method of imputing full health insurance coverage for households without complete data introduces around a 1% upward bias in uninsured rates. The researchers created alternative CPS weights that remove households without complete data to eliminate this bias, finding lower uninsured rates more consistent with other data sources.

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A Correction for the Full-Supplement Imputation Bias in the Current Population Survey’s Annual and Social Economic Supplement Jeanette Ziegenfuss, Ph.D. Division of Health Care Policy & Research Mayo Clinic Bias & Nonresponse I, May 16, 2009 American Association for Public Opinion Research
Acknowledgements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background – CPS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background – CPS ,[object Object],Source: SHADAC estimates from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplements, 1995-2008. Note: 1995-2003 data are adjusted for Census correction announced in March 2007 .
Background – CPS ,[object Object],[object Object]
Background – Imputation Bias ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background – Imputation Bias ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results – Uninsurance Rates, 2006-2007   Number of supplements completed in HH   One or more None Difference Not US Born 37.4% 32.3% -5.1% *** US Born 13.7% 24.5% 10.9% *** Hispanic 34.7% 32.5% -2.2%   White 11.2% 23.4% 12.2% *** Black 20.1% 27.5% 7.4% *** Other 17.2% 26.1% 8.8% *** Less than HS 41.5% 37.0% -4.5% ** HS 24.3% 28.0% 3.7% *** Some College 16.5% 27.6% 11.1% *** College 9.8% 23.7% 13.9% *** Postgrad 4.5% 18.7% 14.2% *** Total 16.7% 25.6% 8.9% ***
Research Objective ,[object Object]
Methods ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methods, cont.   Person level, distribution of complete supplement by HH   HH has all FL665=1 HH has some FL665=1 HH has no FL665=1 1996 88.6 0.6 10.8 … 2005 89.2 1.1 9.7 2006 90.0 1.2 8.8 2007 89.5 1.4 9.2 2008 90.4 1.4 8.2
Methods, cont.   Person level, distribution of complete supplement by HH   HH has all FL665=1 HH has some FL665=1 HH has no FL665=1 1996 88.6 0.6 10.8 … 2005 89.2 1.1 9.7 2006 90.0 1.2 8.8 2007 89.5 1.4 9.2 2008 90.4 1.4 8.2
Methods, cont. 14.4 % unin. 23.2 % unin.   Person level, distribution of complete supplement by HH   HH has all FL665=1 HH has some FL665=1 HH has no FL665=1 1996 88.6 0.6 10.8 … 2005 89.2 1.1 9.7 2006 90.0 1.2 8.8 2007 89.5 1.4 9.2 2008 90.4 1.4 8.2
Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight Under 65 15.3% 14.6%
Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement Under 65 15.3% 14.6% 14.4%
Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement No complete supplement Under 65 15.3% 14.6% 14.4% 23.2%
Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight Female 16.0% 15.1% Male 19.0% 18.4% <18 11.3% 10.5% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% US Born 14.7% 13.7% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% White 12.3% 11.3% Black 21.0% 20.2% Other 18.1% 17.3%
Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement Female 16.0% 15.1% 15.0% Male 19.0% 18.4% 18.3% <18 11.3% 10.5% 10.5% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 28.2% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 25.6% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 17.7% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 14.6% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% 11.3% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 33.0% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 29.8% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 19.9% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 11.9% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% 37.4% US Born 14.7% 13.7% 13.7% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% 34.7% White 12.3% 11.3% 11.2% Black 21.0% 20.2% 20.1% Other 18.1% 17.3% 17.2%
Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement Female 16.0% 15.1% 15.0% Male 19.0% 18.4% 18.3% <18 11.3% 10.5% 10.5% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 28.2% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 25.6% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 17.7% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 14.6% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% 11.3% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 33.0% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 29.8% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 19.9% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 11.9% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% 37.4% US Born 14.7% 13.7% 13.7% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% 34.7% White 12.3% 11.3% 11.2% Black 21.0% 20.2% 20.1% Other 18.1% 17.3% 17.2%
Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement No complete supplement Female 16.0% 15.1% 15.0% 25.7% Male 19.0% 18.4% 18.3% 25.4% <18 11.3% 10.5% 10.5% 20.7% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 28.2% 32.5% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 25.6% 33.5% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 17.7% 26.4% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 14.6% 22.0% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% 11.3% 22.7% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 33.0% 41.9% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 29.8% 34.1% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 19.9% 26.2% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 11.9% 22.1% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 17.5% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% 37.4% 32.3% US Born 14.7% 13.7% 13.7% 24.5% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% 34.7% 32.5% White 12.3% 11.3% 11.2% 23.4% Black 21.0% 20.2% 20.1% 27.5% Other 18.1% 17.3% 17.2% 26.1%
Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007
Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007 45.6 million 43.6 million
Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007 45.6 million 43.6 million
Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007 45.6 million 43.6 million
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions, cont. ,[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions, cont. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Contact Information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results – Demographics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],  Number of supplements completed in HH One or more None <18 28.7% 25.2% *** 18-24 10.7% 12.9% *** 25-34 15.3% 15.4%   35-44 16.2% 16.2%   45-54 16.6% 17.8% *** 55-64 12.5% 12.5%   Not U,S, Born 12.6% 13.4% * U,S Born 87.4% 86.6% * Hispanic 16.6% 14.4% *** White 64.2% 62.0% *** Black 12.9% 16.9% *** Other 6.4% 6.6%   Not Working 20.8% 22.0% ** PT Work 13.2% 12.3% ** FT Work 66.0% 65.7%   < H.S. 13.1% 12.4%   HS Grad 29.6% 34.1% *** Some Coll 20.3% 20.2%   College Grad 27.9% 25.8% *** Postgrad 9.2% 7.6% *** Not Married 44.2% 48.2% *** Married 55.8% 51.8% ***
Results – By State ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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A Correction for the Full-Supplement Imputation Bias in the Current Population Survey’s Annual and Social Economic Supplement

  • 1. A Correction for the Full-Supplement Imputation Bias in the Current Population Survey’s Annual and Social Economic Supplement Jeanette Ziegenfuss, Ph.D. Division of Health Care Policy & Research Mayo Clinic Bias & Nonresponse I, May 16, 2009 American Association for Public Opinion Research
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  • 8. Results – Uninsurance Rates, 2006-2007   Number of supplements completed in HH   One or more None Difference Not US Born 37.4% 32.3% -5.1% *** US Born 13.7% 24.5% 10.9% *** Hispanic 34.7% 32.5% -2.2%   White 11.2% 23.4% 12.2% *** Black 20.1% 27.5% 7.4% *** Other 17.2% 26.1% 8.8% *** Less than HS 41.5% 37.0% -4.5% ** HS 24.3% 28.0% 3.7% *** Some College 16.5% 27.6% 11.1% *** College 9.8% 23.7% 13.9% *** Postgrad 4.5% 18.7% 14.2% *** Total 16.7% 25.6% 8.9% ***
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  • 11. Methods, cont.   Person level, distribution of complete supplement by HH   HH has all FL665=1 HH has some FL665=1 HH has no FL665=1 1996 88.6 0.6 10.8 … 2005 89.2 1.1 9.7 2006 90.0 1.2 8.8 2007 89.5 1.4 9.2 2008 90.4 1.4 8.2
  • 12. Methods, cont.   Person level, distribution of complete supplement by HH   HH has all FL665=1 HH has some FL665=1 HH has no FL665=1 1996 88.6 0.6 10.8 … 2005 89.2 1.1 9.7 2006 90.0 1.2 8.8 2007 89.5 1.4 9.2 2008 90.4 1.4 8.2
  • 13. Methods, cont. 14.4 % unin. 23.2 % unin.   Person level, distribution of complete supplement by HH   HH has all FL665=1 HH has some FL665=1 HH has no FL665=1 1996 88.6 0.6 10.8 … 2005 89.2 1.1 9.7 2006 90.0 1.2 8.8 2007 89.5 1.4 9.2 2008 90.4 1.4 8.2
  • 14. Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight Under 65 15.3% 14.6%
  • 15. Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement Under 65 15.3% 14.6% 14.4%
  • 16. Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement No complete supplement Under 65 15.3% 14.6% 14.4% 23.2%
  • 17. Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight Female 16.0% 15.1% Male 19.0% 18.4% <18 11.3% 10.5% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% US Born 14.7% 13.7% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% White 12.3% 11.3% Black 21.0% 20.2% Other 18.1% 17.3%
  • 18. Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement Female 16.0% 15.1% 15.0% Male 19.0% 18.4% 18.3% <18 11.3% 10.5% 10.5% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 28.2% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 25.6% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 17.7% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 14.6% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% 11.3% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 33.0% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 29.8% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 19.9% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 11.9% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% 37.4% US Born 14.7% 13.7% 13.7% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% 34.7% White 12.3% 11.3% 11.2% Black 21.0% 20.2% 20.1% Other 18.1% 17.3% 17.2%
  • 19. Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement Female 16.0% 15.1% 15.0% Male 19.0% 18.4% 18.3% <18 11.3% 10.5% 10.5% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 28.2% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 25.6% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 17.7% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 14.6% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% 11.3% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 33.0% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 29.8% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 19.9% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 11.9% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% 37.4% US Born 14.7% 13.7% 13.7% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% 34.7% White 12.3% 11.3% 11.2% Black 21.0% 20.2% 20.1% Other 18.1% 17.3% 17.2%
  • 20. Results – Revised Weights CPS Reweight One complete supplement No complete supplement Female 16.0% 15.1% 15.0% 25.7% Male 19.0% 18.4% 18.3% 25.4% <18 11.3% 10.5% 10.5% 20.7% 18-24 28.7% 28.3% 28.2% 32.5% 25-34 26.3% 25.6% 25.6% 33.5% 35-44 18.5% 17.8% 17.7% 26.4% 45-54 15.4% 14.6% 14.6% 22.0% 55-64 12.4% 11.4% 11.3% 22.7% <100% 33.9% 33.1% 33.0% 41.9% 100-199 30.1% 29.8% 29.8% 34.1% 200-299 20.5% 20.0% 19.9% 26.2% 300-399 12.8% 12.0% 11.9% 22.1% 400+ 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 17.5% Not US Born 36.9% 37.3% 37.4% 32.3% US Born 14.7% 13.7% 13.7% 24.5% Hispanic 34.5% 34.9% 34.7% 32.5% White 12.3% 11.3% 11.2% 23.4% Black 21.0% 20.2% 20.1% 27.5% Other 18.1% 17.3% 17.2% 26.1%
  • 21. Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007
  • 22. Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007 45.6 million 43.6 million
  • 23. Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007 45.6 million 43.6 million
  • 24. Results – Revised Weights Percentage of Americans without health insurance –1997-2007 45.6 million 43.6 million
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