95 Express Lanes Update

1. December 14, 2015
95 Express Lanes Update
Presentation to the FAMPO Policy Committee

2. Original 95/395 Express Lane Plan
• Called “ Virginia HOT Lanes”
• New/Upgraded 56 Mile Facility
• Massaponax to Pentagon/Eads St
– I-95 – 47 Miles
– I-395 – 9 Miles
• About Half Actually Built To Date
– I-95 – 26 Miles
– I-395 – 2 Miles
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3. Governor’s 95 Express Lane
Announcement
• Public Announcement on 11/24/2015
• Two New Express Lane Projects
– Add 9 miles to I-95/395 Express Lanes
• 7 Mile Extension along I-395 in Northern Virginia
• 2 Mile Extension along I-95 in Stafford
– New Total Length Will be 37 miles
• I-95: 28 Miles
• I-395: 9 Miles
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4. I-395 Express Lanes Extension
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5. I-95 Express Lane Extension in Stafford
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• Two Mile Extension
• One Reversible lane built for potential
conversion to two lanes
• Project Start in 2016
• Project Completion in 2018
• Project Website:
https://www.expresslanes.com/uploads/1000/938-
95_Operational_Improvements_Fact_Sheet.pdf

6. Review of Toll and Revenue Study
for I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project
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7. Study Background
• Completed by VDOT consultant Halcrow in 2009
• Covered about 56 miles of I-95/395 from the Pentagon area in Arlington
to the Massaponax area in Spotsylvania
• Used data from the 2000 to 2006 timeframe to forecast to 2071
• Used Washington MPO Modeling Tool for analysis
• Initially used to support 95/395 Express Lane projects. In August, 2015,
however, this study was used as justification by the state for not moving
ahead with the Southern Section of the 95 Express Lanes project
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8. State interpretation of Study Findings
Study does not support 95 Express lane improvements south of
Rte 610: Garrisonville Rd
1. From 8/21/15 FLS Article
“Studies indicate that toll revenue won’t support the cost to extend the express lanes” …
“it would cost $30 million to $40 million a mile to add the lanes, and that doesn’t include a bridge
that would have to be built between the current spans across the Rappahannock River.”
2. From October 19th FAMPO Meeting:
• Northern Section would generate approximately six times the revenue of Southern Section
• Construction cost of Southern Section would be approximately $1 Billion
• Operation cost of Southern Section would be approximately $1 Billion over a 60 year
period. This calculation is based on Transurban’s current operation costs.
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9. Study Toll Sections
• Six Sections
• Northern Section = 4 section; A to D
• Southern Section = 2 sections; E to F
• Breakpoint between Northern and
Southern Section at Garrisonville Rd
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10. Summary of Study Results 1
• Table 7.1 - pg. 54 – Toll Revenue can be maximized in 2030
with a minimum speed of 55 mph compared to 45 or 65 mph
• Finding supports current minimum Express Lane Speed
Threshold of 55 mph
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11. Summary of Study Results 2:
Toll Rates Decline South of Garrisonville
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Garrisonville

12. Study Results 2 continued:
Toll Rates Decline South of Garrisonville
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Garrisonville

13. Study Results 2 continued:
Transactions Decline South of Garrisonville
20Garrisonville

14. But Observed Study Traffic Data from 2001 to 2006 Does Not
Show an I-95 Traffic Dropoff at Garrisonville
21Garrisonville

15. And 2000 to 2014 Daily Traffic Trends For I-95 Corridor: I-495
(Springfield Interchange) to Hanover County
Does Not Show a Traffic Dropoff at Garrisonville
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Garrisonville Massaponax Garrisonville Massaponax
Low Growth
2000 to 2014
High Growth
2000 to 2014
High Growth
2000 to 2014
Low Growth
2000 to 2014
NOVA Hanover NOVA Hanover

16. Why Does Study Analysis Show a Significant Dropoff
in Toll Revenue South of Garrisonville?
• Due to Limitations of using Washington Model to Model FAMPO region
1. Northern part of FAMPO only included to better
model Washington MPO area and include entire
Washington Urbanized area which includes
Northern Stafford and ends near Garrisonville
2. Only covers about 50% of FAMPO Model area
3. Does not include most of Spotsylvania
4. Insensitive to Growth South of Massaponax
5. Model known to underestimate traffic between
NOVA and Fredericksburg
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17. Study Report Documents Model Problem where Trips
Underforecast between FAMPO region and NOVA
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1. Adjustment based on 2000 CTPP data was
inadequate for 2005 base model adjustment
2. Adjustment based on 2000 CTPP data did not
properly account for future growth in travel between
FAMPO Counties and NOVA from 2005 to 2071

18. Summary
1. Study incorrectly underforecasts Toll & Revenue from 95/395 Express
Lane improvements south of Garrisonville due to limitations in the
study modeling tool
2. Study based on old data from 2000 to 2006 timeframe
3. Study cannot be used to justify no need for 95 Express Lane
improvements south of Garrisonville
4. A New Toll & Revenue Study is needed for 95 Express Lanes Southern
Section
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