GUILHERME SIMÕES

1. Outlooks: Brazil, LatAm & Global
Guilherme Simões, Senior Financial Analyst, AM Best
8° Encontro de Resseguro do Rio de Janeiro

2. AM Best Overview
AM Best Headquarters, Oldwick, NJ, USA.
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3. AM Best Overview
Founded in 1899, AM Best is recognized by the financial industry as the only
global credit ratings organization with a uniquely dedicated focus on the
insurance industry and insurance-linked capital markets transactions.
Best’s Credit Ratings are an essential benchmark to help the financial industry
and consumers assess an insurer's financial strength, creditworthiness, and the
ability to honor obligations to policyholders worldwide.
Our perspective is powered by strong analytic expertise, research and insight to
help insurers, financial professionals, and consumers make more confident
decisions.
With over 3,400 ratings in more than 90 countries, AM Best is located in the United
States, Mexico, London, Dubai, Singapore, and Hong Kong
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4. Market Coverage
• Property/Casualty (non-life)
• Life and Annuity
• Health
• Reinsurance
• Mutual Insurers and Protection
& Indemnity (P&I) Clubs
• Surety Companies
• Title Insurance
• Takaful, Retakaful and
Co-operative Insurers
• Start-up Reinsurers
• Lloyd’s and Its Syndicates
• Alternative Risk Transfer (ART)
Vehicles – Captives, Pools and
Risk Retention Groups
• Debt: Corporate Debt, Preferred
Stock and Hybrid Securities,
Commercial Paper,
Insurance-based Liability or
Asset-backed Securitizations,
Closed-block Monetizations
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5. Best’s Credit Rating Scales
FSR Long-Term ICR
A++ Aaa, aa+
A+ Aa, aa-
A a+, a
A- a-
B++ bbb+, bbb
B+ bbb-
B bb+, bb
B- bb-
C++ b+, b
C+ b-
C ccc+, ccc
C- ccc-, cc
D c
E e/d
F f/d
Note: e/E, f/F and d are non-rating designation status. e/E and f/F are
used for insurers, while d is used for non-insurers and securities.
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6. Overall Assessment
Balance
Sheet Strength
Baseline
Balance
Sheet
Strength
Baseline
Operating
Performance
(+2/-3)
Business
Profile
(+2/-2)
Enterprise Risk
Management
(+1/-4)
Comprehensive
Adjustment
(+1/-1)
Rating
Lift/Drag
Published
Issuer
Credit
Rating
Country Risk
Maximum + 2
Very strong
“a”
Adequate
“0”
Limited
“-1”
Appropriate
“0”
None None
“0” “0” “a-”
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7. Country Risk in Latin America
Country Country Risk Tier
Chile 2
Mexico 3
Brazil 4
Colombia 4
Costa Rica 4
Panama 4
Peru 4
Dominican
Republic
4
Argentina 5
Bolivia 5
Ecuador 2
Honduras 5
Venezuela 5
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8. Market Segment Outlook – Brazil Reinsurance
View from Alto da Boa Vista, in Rio de Janeiro.
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9. Market Segment Outlook – Brazil Reinsurance
Headwinds Tailwinds
Persistent macroeconomic and political
uncertainty
There is a clear path of reforms to resume growth
Declining lower interest rate environment
Lower interest rates facilitate economic growth,
and increase in underwriting
Currency volatility increases risk of doing
business in Brazil
Volatility decreases in periods of stable growth
Competition in the property & casualty segment
is intense
There is still growth potential in surety,
agriculture, and specialty lines
Regulatory environment is evolving
Much was done to provide market economy
features to the (re)insurance industry, which has
been gradually opened
AM Best has assigned the outlook on the Brazilian Reinsurance market as Negative
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10. • Insurance penetration still
has a long way to go in
Brazil
• Reinsurance usually
follows
• Economic development to
increase demand for
(re)insurance
• Infrastructure
improvements, together
with regulatory framework
have potential for
positively impacting the
(re)insurance industry
Insurance Penetration in Brazil
Source: OECD.
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11. Market Segment Outlook – Brazil Reinsurance
Growth in the (re)insurance market can positively impact companies balance sheet strength,
operating performance and business profile
• After presidential elections, part of the uncertainty disappeared
• Needed pension system reform is key to put country back on track
• Everything else will follow
• Infrastructure is a key topic for the current government and
(re)insurance should follow suit
• There is a lag until reinsurance captures primary insurance market
growth
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12. Interest Rates Driving Return on Equity
• Higher interest rates usually
favor higher returns in the
reinsurance industry
• Correlations between interest
rates and return on equity
have increased over the years
• Underwriting discipline and
scale are key to improve
profitability in the future10y Correlation 7y Correlation 5y Correlation 3Y Correlation
0.45 0.51 0.49 0.72
-10,00%
-5,00%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Local Brazilian Reinsurance Market ROAE vs. Interest
Rates (excluding IRB)
ROAE (excl IRB) Target Interest Rates (average)
Source: SUSEP, Banco Central do Brasil.
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13. Surety
Octavio Frias de Oliveira bridge, in Sao Paulo.
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14. Evolving Reinsurance Market - Surety: Still an Opportunity
• The regulatory framework change in 2013
kicked-off the segment
• Losses are relatively low compared with other lines
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Milhões
Surety Reinsurance Gross Premiums
Surety (Reinsurance Premiums) Growth (Y/Y)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Surety as a % of the (Re)insurance
Industry Gross Premiums
% of Total Reinsurance Premiums
Reinsurance/Insurance
% of Total Insurance Premiums
Source: SUSEP
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15. Oil & Gas
Brazil’s Pre-Salt 6th tender offer round. Source: ANP Brazil
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16. Evolving Reinsurance Market – Oil & Gas: Recovery
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Milhões
Oil & Gas Reinsurance Gross Premiums
Oil & Gas (Reinsurance Premiums) Growth (Y/Y)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Oil & Gas as a % of the (Re)insurance Industry Gross
Premiums
% of Total Reinsurance Premiums Reinsurance/Insurance
% of Total Insurance Premiums
• With the stabilization of oil prices, resumption of
oilfields tender offers and Petrobras clean-up, demand
for (re)insurance in the Oil & Gas increased, however
it has been very volatile in recent years
• The opening of the Oil & Gas market in Brazil has
attracted global companies
Source: SUSEP
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17. Agriculture/Crop
Map of Worldwide Croplands. Source: NASA, Nov. 2017.
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18. Evolving Reinsurance Market – Crop/Agro: A Lot of Room
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Milhões
Agro Reinsurance Gross Premiums
Rural (Reinsurance Premiums) Growth (Y/Y)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Agro as a % of the (Re)insurance Industry Gross
Premiums
% of Total Reinsurance Premiums Reinsurance/Insurance
% of Total Insurance Premiums
• While percentage insured vs. planted area is significantly
below other countries (~15% in Brazil vs. ~90% in U.S.),
current government intends to foster agriculture sector
growth
• Primary market is somewhat concentrated by insurer and
by activity/crop
Source: SUSEP, Ministério da Agricultura
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19. Competitive Landscape
• (Re)insurance management in Brazil is seen as
resilient, and have faced innumerous economic
and political crisis in the past few decades
• Hyper-inflationary periods, currency volatility,
regulatory uncertainty, high taxation environment
were weathered by many of (re)insurance
managers
• However, fierce competition establishes in
Brazil each time the country gets in the
spotlight as an attractive emerging
opportunity
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20. LatAm: Mexico and Panama Outlooks
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21. Market Segment Outlook – Mexico Insurance
• Less dependency on investment income as insurers gained efficiency
through a reduction in expenses
• Primary premiums are expected to decline due to a reduction in government
spending and a reduction in GDP growth forecast (1.8% in 2019)
• Interest rates at 8.25% likely to stay near this level as economic activity
slows down
• Mexico has lower insurance penetration than Brazil and other countries with
similar country risk
• Regulatory environment favors competition reducing market share
concentration
• Reinsurance capacity availability is fostering competition in the P/C lines
other than life, accident & health and auto segments, with lower retentions
Outlook for Mexico’s insurance industry is stable, with strong risk-adjusted
capitalization metrics
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22. Market Segment Outlook – Panama Insurance
• Deceleration caused by the construction sector is impacting this line of
business
• Panama is one of LatAm’s fastest growing economies
• Insurance penetration is among the lowest
• Health, Personal, Group Life, Motor and Individual Life are the lines with the
highest growth in the last few years
• Market is concentrated in the top 5 companies
• Operating performance is profitable with combined ratios at 85.6%
Outlook is stable for Panama’s insurance industry, with sound capitalization, profitable
underwriting, and evolving risk management
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23. Market Segment Outlook – Global Reinsurance
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24. Market Segment Outlook – Global Reinsurance
Headwinds Tailwinds
Intense competition
Increasing alignment between traditional and third-
party capital
Excess capacity limits the potential for
improvement
Improving pricing discipline
Potential for increased inflation Rising interest rate environment
Rates stabilized, but remain under pressure US economic growth slows, but continues
Continued interest from third-party capital, even
beyond prop-cat lines
Use of third-party capital in retrocession programs
reducing earnings volatility
AM Best has revised the outlook on the Global Reinsurance sector to Stable
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25. Global Reinsurance Market Trends
13,0%
11,6%
9,5%
8,3%
5,0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Return on Equity Five-Year Average
Return on EquityCombined Ratio
Source: AM Best data and research.
87,9%
89,7% 90,4%
95,2%
110,1%
99,7%
94,7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 5yr Avg
25

26. Global Reinsurance Market Capital
292
320 340 332 345 345 345
19
48
60 68
75 87 95
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Third Party Capital Traditional Capital
$20bn Trapped?
Estimate for Total Dedicated Reinsurance Capital (USD billions)
Notes and Sources: Estimates by Guy Carpenter and AM Best.
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27. Global Reinsurance Market Capital
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Capital Utilization
$ in billions
Capital Depletion Needed To Trigger a Hard Market @ 99.6 Capital Utilization
Notes and Sources: Estimates by Guy Carpenter and AM Best.
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28. Global Reinsurance Market Trends
Global Reinsurance – Price/Book Value (Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Price/BookValue
Years
Average
Current P/BV: 1.17x
Average 1994-Present: 1.16x
Low Reached March 2009 (0.75x BV)
Peak reached February 2002 (1.83x BV)
1.0x P/BV
Announced Acquirer Acquiree
Price
(USD mm)
Tangible
Price to BV
9-Jan-15 XL Group Catlin Group Ltd $4,100 1.27x¹
3-Aug-15 EXOR PartnerRe $6,900 1.19x
5-Oct-16 Sompo Endurance $6,304 1.36x
6-Jul-17 AXIS Novae $604 1.50x
22-Jan-18 AIG Validus $5,560 1.53x
4-Mar-18 AXA XL Group $15,300 1.96x
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, AM Best research.
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29. Possible Turn in Rates Trajectory
Capital Elasticity
has flattened the
reinsurance
market cycle
$200 billion in
losses over an 18
month period
from August 2017
to May 2018
Capacity crunch
in retrocession
markets
Earnings under
pressure
Increased demand
for reinsurance
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30. Continued Market Uncertainty
MARKET UNCERTAINTY
Upward rate
pressure
Trapped
Collateral
Loss
Uncertainty
Loss creep from
Hurricanes &
Wildfire
Uncertainty
New Capacity
being held on
the sidelines
Aggregation of
losses across
ILS Fund Sector
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31. What Has Transpired
Predominately European renewals
that were less effected by the 2017
& 2018 CATs
Rates did increase 0-5% for
loss effected programs (Lloyd’s
and US)
Supply & Demand imbalance lead to
retro pricing increases of 15-20%
Overall Renewal pricing was flat
January Renewal negotiations ran late
31

32. What to Expect?
ILS Funds and collaterialized re expect larger rate response for the 4/1 & 6/1 renewals
with April renewals indicating +10% and potentially higher for Florida and other US loss
effected regions
Capital markets continue to be the key to sustained rate increases at the mid-year
renewals
An abundance of capital waiting on the sideline
Evolving interest rate environment is a new variable the pricing equation
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