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VALUE FOCUS
Insurance Industry
www.mercercapital.com
Sector Overview & Commentary	
Property  Casualty	 1
Sector Overview  ...
© 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015
Secto...
© 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015
Secto...
© 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015
Secto...
© 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL Financial 4
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry...
© 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL Financial 5
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry...
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Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry...
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Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry...
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Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry...
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Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry...
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Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Insurance Industry | Q3 2015

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Mercer Capital’s Insurance Industry newsletter is a quarterly publication providing perspective on valuation issues pertinent to insurance brokers, underwriters, and other industry professionals. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.

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Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Insurance Industry | Q3 2015

  1. 1. VALUE FOCUS Insurance Industry www.mercercapital.com Sector Overview & Commentary Property Casualty 1 Sector Overview Commentary 2 Reinsurance 2 Life Health 2 Managed Care 2 Brokers 2 Sector Overview Commentary 3 InsurTech, Claims Services 3 Insurance MA Highlights Insurance Underwriters 4 Insurance Brokers 5 Publicly Traded Insurance Companies Property Casualty 6 Reinsurance 9 Multiline 9 Life Health 10 Managed Care 11 Brokers 12 InsurTech, Claims Services 12 About Mercer Capital 13 Third Quarter 2015
  2. 2. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Sector Overview Commentary Property Casualty • PC stocks fell 1.4% for the quarter but have risen 14% over the last twelve months, led by commercial insurers and carriers emphasizing workers’ compensation products. For reference, the SP 500 returned -7.1% and 4.5% over the same periods. • Per MarketScout, aggregate commercial lines renewal pricing remained flat during the quarter while personal lines rates renewals increased 2% in both July and August and 1% in Sep- tember. The relative stability in the price level could indicate an inflection point in the insurance cycle from a hard market to a soft market. • Q3’15 was the quietest period for cat bond issuance of late with only $600 million issued in the quarter after a combined $4.1 billion were issued in the first two quarters of 2015. The PC industry received good fortune weather-wise during Q3 itself. Excluding spot wildfires in California, the domestic market was free of significant catastrophe events. • The historically low yield bond environment has persisted, con- tinuing to depress investment returns as investors anxiously await the anticipated Fed rate hikes of the Fed Funds rate. Sector Pricing and Valuation Summary Share Price Δ Price / Earnings Price / Book LTM Return on EquitySegment %YoY %3Q15 LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB Property Casualty (all) 14.0% -1.4% 12.3x 13.5x 12.9x 1.26x 1.36x 9.4% PC - Commercial Lines 14.3% 1.0% 11.7x 12.8x 12.1x 1.06x 1.25x 9.4% PC - Personal Lines 12.7% -7.4% 12.3x 13.5x 10.3x 1.51x 1.55x 12.1% PC - Specialty 12.2% 0.1% 14.1x 15.7x 14.5x 1.12x 1.27x 7.7% PC - Workers' Comp 27.2% 5.7% 15.8x 14.7x 14.0x 2.00x 2.00x 13.2% Reinsurance 7.8% -3.6% 9.0x 10.7x 9.6x 1.00x 1.03x 10.9% Multi-line 3.6% -4.6% 12.5x 11.6x 11.3x 1.05x 1.08x 6.2% Life Health -0.8% -6.5% 11.9x 10.8x 9.7x 0.92x 0.94x 8.8% Managed Care 34.8% -14.4% 18.5x 18.8x 16.2x 2.55x 2.90x 12.4% Source: SNL Financial, Mercer Capital analysis. Median measures shown for segments. Share Price Δ Enterprise Value / EBITDA EV / LTM Rev LTM Rev GrowthSegment %YoY %3Q15 LTM FY15E FY16E Insurance Brokers -1.0% -11.1% 12.5x 11.0x 9.5x 2.47x 1.6% Claims, Tech, Services 16.0% -23.5% 10.4x 7.0x 6.2x 2.82x 15.5% Source: SNL Financial, Mercer Capital analysis. Median measures shown for segments.
  3. 3. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Sector Overview Commentary Reinsurance • Reinsurance stocks struggled in Q3, with a median decline of 3.6%. Still, the sector has seen 7.8% growth over the last twelve months. • The median price/book ratio for the group fell to 1.0x, threatening to dip below book value. This was last seen consistently throughout the period of late 2010- 2012. • According to Aon Benfield’s Reinsurance Market Outlook, demand in the sector is projected to slightly increase into 2016, influenced by updates to ratings agency capital models, the furthered privatization of reinsurable risks from gov- ernment pools and opportunities for expansion into new business lines. These growth possibilities include U.S mortgage risk and annuity risk. Life Health • Nearly every individual entity in the LH group suffered losses in the third quarter (overall median decline of 6.5% for the period). • Participants in this sector are likely to reap the biggest rewards in the event of the Fed hiking interest rates in the near future, as higher rates boost demand for products such as annuities. In the last Fed tightening cycle, LH stocks vastly outperformed the SP 500, producing a 39.1% return versus 15.8% for the index. Estimated median ROE for 2016 is 10.7%, compared to 8.8% for the last twelve months, fueled by the potential for a boost to investment income. • The limited opportunity for investment income has played into the greater pic- ture of slowed organic growth across the sector. Some domestic players are con- sidering acquisitions overseas to use excess capital, especially capital intensive insurers. Investments in emerging markets provide potential compound benefits of population growth and increases in per capita wealth that together are forming a new middle class. Managed Care • Managed care stocks fell 14.4% on the quarter. However, the favorable Supreme Court ruling regarding tax credits under the Affordable Care Act earlier in the year contributed to a favorable 34.8% return over the last twelve months. • With the Supreme Court ruling providing some certainty in the immediate future for the managed care industry, MA discussions emerged and now deals are coming to fruition. Mergers between Aetna/Humana and Anthem/Cigna have been announced in recent months which, if approved, would lower the number of major national health insurers from 5 to 3. • A key driver of consolidation is expectations that greater scale will empower man- aged care companies to hold down hospital pricing. Brokers • Broker stocks sharply decreased on the quarter falling 11.1% and pushing returns for the last twelve months to a discouraging -1.0%. • According to The Council of Insurance Agents Brokers, a moderate decline in commercial PC rates across all account sizes and most lines continued through the quarter. The trend has persisted since the start of 2013 and continues to pres- sure brokers’ bottom lines. • Among brokers, EV/EBITDA multiples seem to have plateaued after having jumped to historic highs in 2013. Since then, multiples have remained between 12.0x and 12.8x, with a 12.5x LTM measure in the most recent quarter. • As consumers continue to shift toward digital channels, traditional insurance brokers may be the first to be threatened by the rise of technology-driven firms looking to disrupt legacy sales channels.
  4. 4. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Sector Overview Commentary InsurTech, Claims Services • Ancillary service providers, such as TPAs and insurance software/technology firms, generally reported disappointing performance in the third quarter. The median return for the sector was -23.5% on the quarter. • As buzz over insurance technology “InsurTech” companies builds, developments in this sector seem increasingly likely to have a significant impact on the insur- ance industry as a whole. The nature and extent of the impact will largely hinge on whether or not incumbent insurance players are willing and able to leverage the innovations to their benefit, rather than allowing new technologies to disrupt existing business dynamics. • BenefitFocus (BNFT), a provider of a cloud-based benefits management platform for consumers, employers, insurance carriers and brokers, saw its stock decrease 28.7% on the quarter. The decline is likely tied to poor performance of the overall market rather than a reflection of the firm’s operations, as the company’s Q2 finan- cials beat analyst expectations and management issued positive forward guidance. • Connecture (CNXR), a technology company that builds online health insurance marketplaces that went public in December 2014, saw its stock drop 56.8% for the quarter; a fall likely driven by Q2 earnings performance that underperformed equity analyst estimates. Since IPO, the stock is down 50.7%.
  5. 5. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL Financial 4 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Insurance MA Highlights Insurance Underwriters 26 deals were announced in Q3 2015 (up from 11 in 2014), driven by major consolidation in the healthcare sector. The largest deals announced in Q3 2105 include: • Anthem Inc.’s proposed $54.2 billion (including debt) acquisi- tion of Cigna and Aetna Inc.’s proposed $37 billion acquisition of Humana, Inc. ○○ Likely to face intense regulatory scrutiny, the proposed deals would combine the 2nd and 4th and 3rd and 5th largest health insurance providers by market value, respectively, according to Forbes. • ACE Ltd.’s $28.3 billion merger with Chubb Corp. ○○ The announced deal value represents 1.76x reported book value and 14.7x LTM earnings. The announced price implied a 30% premium to Chubb’s stock price one day prior to the announcement and would create one of the largest PC insurance companies in the world. Q1! Q2! Q3! Q4! YTD at 9/30! 2012! 19 ! 26 ! 27 ! 21 ! 72 ! 2013! 24 ! 19 ! 25 ! 15 ! 68 ! 2014! 17 ! 15 ! 11 ! 29 ! 43 ! 2015! 12 ! 20 ! 26 ! 0 ! 58 ! 0 ! 20 ! 40 ! 60 ! 80 ! NumberofTransactions! MA Activity Recap: Insurance Underwriters
  6. 6. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL Financial 5 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Insurance MA Highlights Insurance Brokers 108 broker transactions were announced in Q3 2015, up from 93 the year prior. Year-to-date, deal activity is up 46%. Key deals announced in Q3 2015 include: • An investor group comprised of Greenspoint Capital LLC and Newport Group Holdings L.P. acquired Clark Consulting LLC, an insurance broker, from Aegon USA LLC. ○○ Announced deal value of $177.5 million, though terms were not disclosed. The move makes Newport the largest administrator of bank-owned life insurance (BOLI) and corporate-owned life insurance (COLI) in the United States. • GTCR announced the sale of AssuredPartners, Inc. to Apax Partners. ○○ Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Assured- Partners is the 6th largest PC insurance brokerage in the United States and had completed 101 acquisitions since its founding in 2011. • New York private equity firm Odyssey Investment Partners’ acquired Integro Ltd., a specialty insurance brokerage and risk management firm. ○○ Financial details were not disclosed. Integro handles $1.9 billion in premiums annually as the 8th largest private PC broker in the United States. MA Activity Recap: Insurance Brokers Q1! Q2! Q3! Q4! YTD at 9/30! 2012! 61 ! 72 ! 64 ! 141 ! 197 ! 2013! 45 ! 42 ! 57 ! 79 ! 144 ! 2014! 81 ! 66 ! 93 ! 91 ! 240 ! 2015! 121 ! 122 ! 108 ! 0 ! 351 ! 0 ! 50 ! 100 ! 150 ! 200 ! 250 ! 300 ! 350 ! 400 ! NumberofTransactions!
  7. 7. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL FInancial 6 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Publicly Traded Companies Property Casualty 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Price / Earnings Price / Book Div. Yield Underwriting Ratios Invest Yield LTM ROETicker Name LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB Loss Expense Comb. Commercial Lines AIG American International Group, Inc. 56.82 74,289 5.2% -8.1% 11.2x 11.4x 10.3x 0.71x NA 0.81% 67.3% 34.7% 102.0% 4.92% 6.6% CB Chubb Limited 103.40 33,482 -1.4% 1.7% 11.6x 11.1x 10.8x 1.13x 1.42x 2.58% 58.7% 29.3% 88.0% 3.49% 9.9% TRV Travelers Companies, Inc. 99.53 30,974 6.0% 3.0% 9.1x 10.2x 10.4x 1.28x 1.53x 2.52% 56.8% 31.9% 88.7% 3.62% 14.4% CNA CNA Financial Corporation 34.93 9,440 -8.2% -8.6% 12.1x 11.5x 10.2x 0.77x 0.78x 2.62% 62.9% 33.3% 96.2% 4.51% 6.1% CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation 53.80 8,823 14.3% 7.2% 13.6x 18.4x 19.9x 1.36x 1.36x 3.67% 62.2% 30.7% 92.9% 5.11% 10.1% AFG American Financial Group, Inc. 68.91 6,032 19.0% 6.0% 15.4x 12.6x 12.1x 1.26x 1.33x 1.54% 64.0% 30.3% 94.2% 4.31% 8.2% ORI Old Republic International Corporation 15.64 4,087 9.5% 0.1% 12.5x 13.4x 14.0x 1.04x NA 4.73% 49.8% 47.5% 97.3% 3.81% 9.0% THG Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. 77.70 3,411 26.5% 5.0% 10.9x 13.2x 12.3x 1.17x 1.25x 2.22% 62.1% 34.3% 96.4% 3.78% 11.3% SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. 31.06 1,774 40.3% 10.7% 10.6x 12.9x 12.0x 1.35x 1.36x 2.00% 58.8% 34.5% 93.3% 3.22% 13.1% UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. 35.05 878 26.2% 7.0% 12.0x 13.1x 14.6x 1.06x 1.09x 2.69% 64.1% 30.4% 94.5% 3.22% 8.9% EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. 22.29 714 15.8% -2.2% 8.2x 13.2x 12.7x 1.00x 1.07x 1.05% 65.2% 31.4% 96.7% 3.06% 12.8% EMCI EMC Insurance Group Inc. 23.21 479 20.6% -7.4% 10.0x 11.1x 13.1x 0.93x 0.93x 2.66% 66.2% 31.0% 97.2% 3.70% 9.4% DGICA Donegal Group Inc. 14.06 394 -8.5% -7.7% 14.6x 12.2x 9.4x 0.90x 0.91x 3.55% 66.3% 32.7% 99.0% 2.67% 6.3% AFH Atlas Financial Holdings, Inc. 18.50 222 33.7% -6.7% 12.0x 15.3x 9.9x 1.95x 2.05x 0.00% 59.5% 27.5% 87.1% 1.99% 17.5% HALL Hallmark Financial Services, Inc. 11.49 221 11.4% 1.0% 11.7x 12.8x 14.4x 0.84x 1.10x 0.00% 65.7% 29.5% 95.3% 2.58% 7.5% Median 3,411 14.3% 1.0% 11.7x 12.8x 12.1x 1.06x 1.25x 2.52% 62.9% 31.4% 95.3% 3.62% 9.4%
  8. 8. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL FInancial 7 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Publicly Traded Companies Property Casualty 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Price / Earnings Price / Book Div. Yield Underwriting Ratios Invest Yield LTM ROETicker Name LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB Loss Expense Comb. Personal Lines ALL Allstate Corporation 58.24 23,412 -5.1% -10.2% 9.8x 12.1x 10.3x 1.20x 1.28x 1.85% 67.9% 26.5% 94.4% 4.76% 11.9% PGR Progressive Corporation 30.64 17,953 21.2% 10.1% 13.6x 15.6x 15.4x 2.44x 2.82x 2.47% 72.2% 20.0% 92.1% 2.96% 18.8% MCY Mercury General Corporation 50.51 2,786 3.5% -9.2% 60.9x 21.7x 18.8x 1.51x 1.57x 4.44% 71.9% 28.0% 99.9% 1.00% 2.4% NGHC National General Holdings Corporation 19.29 1,808 14.2% -7.4% 15.6x 12.5x 9.9x 1.69x 2.65x 0.38% 63.6% 29.8% 93.5% 3.18% 11.3% HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation 33.22 1,368 16.5% -8.7% 13.3x 14.6x 12.9x 1.05x 1.09x 2.75% 68.7% 26.8% 95.5% 4.66% 7.9% UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. 29.54 1,054 128.5% 22.1% 11.8x 11.5x 10.0x 4.13x 4.39x 1.98% 35.8% NA NA 0.79% 42.2% STFC State Auto Financial Corporation 22.81 937 11.2% -4.8% 9.1x 15.5x 13.6x 1.07x 1.07x 1.67% 70.8% 32.9% 103.8% 3.50% 12.1% IPCC Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation 80.54 920 25.8% 6.2% 15.2x 18.4x 16.8x 1.31x 1.47x 2.27% 75.4% 19.1% 94.6% 2.41% 8.8% SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. 54.15 817 0.4% -6.2% NM NM 13.7x 1.26x 1.26x 4.85% 82.8% 29.7% 112.5% 3.47% -1.5% HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. 19.73 592 31.0% -14.2% 6.9x 6.7x 6.4x 1.90x 1.90x 0.00% 34.9% 28.5% 63.3% 1.37% 32.7% SNC State National Companies, Inc. 9.35 416 NA -13.7% 12.8x 9.6x 7.8x 1.61x 1.65x 0.37% NA NA NA 2.41% 13.3% FNHC Federated National Holding Company 24.02 330 -14.5% -0.7% 8.6x 9.9x 8.6x 1.55x 1.55x 0.66% 48.8% NA NA 2.55% 20.5% UIHC United Insurance Holdings Corp. 13.15 283 -12.3% -15.4% 10.8x 15.1x 7.9x 1.29x 1.32x 1.29% 53.6% 38.8% 92.4% 1.68% 12.5% Median 937 12.7% -7.4% 12.3x 13.5x 10.3x 1.51x 1.55x 1.85% 68.3% 28.2% 94.5% 2.55% 12.1%
  9. 9. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL FInancial 8 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Publicly Traded Companies Property Casualty 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Price / Earnings Price / Book Div. Yield Underwriting Ratios Invest Yield LTM ROETicker Name LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB Loss Expense Comb. Specialty Lines MKL Markel Corporation 801.86 11,186 26.0% 0.1% 23.9x 24.5x 31.0x 1.44x 1.86x 0.00% 53.1% 38.1% 91.3% 2.17% 6.3% ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. 73.47 8,993 34.3% 9.7% 11.7x 17.4x 17.9x 1.55x 1.57x 0.00% 54.6% 34.3% 88.9% 2.51% 13.7% WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation 54.37 6,659 13.7% 4.7% 13.3x 15.8x 14.7x 1.48x 1.53x 0.92% 60.9% 32.9% 93.7% 4.14% 11.7% WTM White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. 747.30 4,454 18.6% 14.1% 21.4x 48.7x 45.9x 1.12x 1.23x 0.15% 71.0% 32.1% 103.1% 3.19% 5.2% AWH Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG 38.17 3,466 3.6% -11.7% 12.7x 15.1x 13.6x 0.96x 1.11x 2.16% 58.6% 31.3% 89.8% 1.76% 7.9% ESGR Enstar Group Limited 150.00 2,888 10.0% -3.2% 14.9x 13.6x 12.0x 1.20x 1.31x 0.00% NA NA NA 1.71% 8.4% ENH Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. 61.03 2,756 10.6% -7.1% 8.6x 9.9x 9.3x 0.96x 1.01x 2.10% 51.6% 34.0% 85.6% 2.38% 11.1% RLI RLI Corp. 53.53 2,314 23.7% 4.2% 17.0x 21.9x 23.7x 2.67x 2.91x 1.48% 42.6% 41.6% 84.3% 5.08% 15.7% AGII Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. 51.45 1,580 23.7% 1.6% 8.5x 15.6x 14.6x 0.95x 1.10x 1.31% 55.6% 40.0% 95.6% 4.09% 11.6% OB OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. 14.04 1,338 -8.9% -3.2% NM 20.9x 14.5x 1.29x NA 5.79% 69.1% 33.0% 102.1% 1.55% -1.0% NAVG Navigators Group, Inc. 77.98 1,123 26.8% 0.5% 12.0x 14.2x 14.0x 1.07x 1.07x 0.00% 56.6% 35.5% 92.1% 2.92% 9.4% JRVR James River Group Holdings, Ltd. 26.89 769 NA 3.9% 16.2x 13.2x 12.1x 1.11x 1.63x 1.24% 60.5% 33.2% 93.7% 3.42% 6.9% GBLI Global Indemnity plc 26.17 673 3.7% -6.8% 17.2x 19.4x 21.8x 0.72x 0.75x 0.00% 53.6% 39.6% 93.3% 1.84% 4.2% NATL National Interstate Corporation 26.68 529 -4.4% -2.3% 19.3x 19.1x 16.4x 1.44x 1.47x 1.90% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.03% 7.6% BWINB Baldwin Lyons, Inc. 21.70 326 -12.1% -5.7% 12.5x 12.1x 12.8x 0.80x 0.81x 4.34% 59.5% 32.6% 92.1% 2.09% 6.5% CNFR Conifer Holdings, Inc. 9.75 39 NA NA NM 13.7x 7.7x NA NA 0.00% 61.1% 42.6% 103.7% NA -2.7% Median 1,947 12.2% 0.1% 14.1x 15.7x 14.5x 1.12x 1.27x 1.08% 56.6% 34.0% 92.1% 2.51% 7.7% Workers’ Compensation Focus AFSI AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. 31.49 5,204 58.2% -3.9% 11.3x 11.1x 10.3x 2.62x 4.22x 1.53% 65.5% 24.9% 90.4% 3.13% 22.2% PRA ProAssurance Corporation 49.07 2,651 11.3% 6.2% 16.5x 18.5x 19.3x 1.29x 1.51x 2.68% 54.9% 30.2% 85.2% 3.00% 7.8% AMSF AMERISAFE, Inc. 49.73 945 27.2% 5.7% 15.8x 14.7x 14.0x 2.00x 2.00x 1.27% 62.2% 22.4% 84.6% 2.27% 13.2% Median 2,651 27.2% 5.7% 15.8x 14.7x 14.0x 2.00x 2.00x 1.53% 62.2% 24.9% 85.2% 3.00% 13.2% Median All PC Sub-Groups 1,580 14.0% -1.4% 12.3x 13.5x 12.9x 1.26x 1.36x 1.67% 61.1% 31.9% 93.7% 3.04% 9.4%
  10. 10. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL FInancial 9 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Publicly Traded Companies Reinsurance 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Price / Earnings Price / Book Div. Yield Underwriting Ratios Invest Yield LTM ROETicker Name LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB Loss Expense Comb. XL XL Group plc 36.32 11,037 9.5% -2.4% 9.0x 11.7x 9.8x 0.90x 1.10x 1.72% 56.3% 32.2% 88.5% 3.24% 11.3% RE Everest Re Group, Ltd. 173.34 7,660 7.0% -4.8% 6.8x 8.4x 9.4x 0.99x 1.00x 1.98% 56.8% 26.8% 83.6% 2.75% 15.3% AXS AXIS Capital Holdings Limited 53.72 5,387 13.5% 0.7% 8.3x 12.5x 12.0x 1.01x 1.03x 2.14% 57.6% 36.0% 93.6% 2.38% 11.9% RNR RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. 106.32 4,892 6.3% 4.7% 9.0x 11.1x 11.3x 1.10x 1.18x 1.16% 25.4% 32.3% 57.8% 2.13% 12.0% VR Validus Holdings, Ltd. 45.07 3,754 15.2% 2.5% 10.0x 9.4x 9.6x 1.03x 1.13x 2.82% 43.4% 34.8% 78.1% 0.68% 11.0% AHL Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited 46.47 2,824 8.7% -3.0% 12.2x 10.7x 10.6x 1.01x 1.02x 1.69% 55.6% 37.2% 92.8% 2.37% 8.1% TPRE Third Point Reinsurance Ltd. 13.45 1,416 -7.6% -8.8% 32.0x 36.5x 5.6x 0.93x 0.93x 0.00% 64.7% 38.2% 102.8% 4.21% 3.1% MHLD Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 13.88 1,021 25.3% -12.0% 9.9x 8.7x 6.8x 1.12x 1.24x 3.17% 66.1% 32.3% 98.4% 3.21% 10.7% GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. 22.28 835 -31.3% -23.6% NM NM 5.3x 0.76x 0.76x 0.00% 73.5% 35.4% 108.9% -0.90% -4.8% BCRH Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings Ltd. 17.22 151 -2.7% -4.2% 8.0x 8.9x 9.5x 0.83x NA 6.68% 23.4% 33.2% 56.6% 0.00% 10.5% Median 3,289 7.8% -3.6% 9.0x 10.7x 9.6x 1.00x 1.03x 1.85% 56.6% 34.0% 90.7% 2.38% 10.9% Multiline 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Price / Earnings Price / Book Div. Yield Underwriting Ratios Invest Yield LTM ROETicker Name LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB Loss Expense Comb. AMP Ameriprise Financial, Inc. 109.13 19,507 -11.5% -12.6% 12.5x 11.6x 10.1x 2.48x 3.32x 2.15% 95.0% 15.4% 110.4% 3.63% 20.2% HIG Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. 45.78 19,060 22.9% 10.1% 12.2x 11.5x 10.9x 1.05x 1.08x 1.73% 65.7% 30.5% 96.2% 4.22% 8.7% AIZ Assurant, Inc. 79.01 5,294 22.9% 17.9% 20.8x 11.5x 11.6x 1.10x 1.45x 1.79% NA NA NA 4.45% 5.3% ANAT American National Insurance Company 97.64 2,626 -13.1% -4.6% 9.6x NA NA 0.59x 0.59x 3.01% 68.4% 30.7% 99.2% 4.76% 6.2% KMPR Kemper Corporation 35.37 1,832 3.6% -8.2% 16.4x 18.9x 14.8x 0.91x 1.08x 2.49% 70.8% 27.7% 98.5% 5.51% 5.4% Median 5,294 3.6% -4.6% 12.5x 11.6x 11.3x 1.05x 1.08x 2.15% 69.6% 29.1% 98.8% 4.45% 6.2%
  11. 11. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL FInancial 10 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Publicly Traded Companies Life Health 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Price / Earnings Price / Book Div.Yield Invest. Yield ROE Ticker Name LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB LTM FY15E FY16E MET MetLife, Inc. 47.15 52,655 -12.2% -15.8% 8.0x 8.9x 7.6x 0.78x 0.91x 2.68% 4.64% 9.6% 9.9% 9.8% PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. 76.21 34,440 -13.3% -12.9% 14.2x 7.2x 7.3x 0.83x 0.84x 2.65% 4.39% 5.9% 15.7% 12.3% AFL Aflac Incorporated 58.13 25,032 -0.2% -6.5% 9.8x 9.7x 9.2x 1.47x NA 2.51% 3.18% 14.7% 16.7% 15.4% PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. 47.34 13,951 -9.8% -7.7% 12.2x 10.8x 10.0x 1.44x 1.87x 2.96% 4.60% 11.8% 13.6% 12.5% LNC Lincoln National Corporation 47.46 11,909 -11.4% -19.9% 8.7x 8.0x 7.2x 0.81x 0.96x 1.35% 4.61% 9.2% 10.8% 10.8% VOYA Voya Financial, Inc. 38.77 8,774 -0.8% -16.6% 4.2x 11.9x 11.0x 0.59x 0.60x 0.09% 4.48% 14.6% 6.2% 8.0% UNM Unum Group 32.08 7,912 -6.7% -10.3% 21.5x 8.9x 8.3x 0.93x 0.95x 1.85% 4.77% 4.3% 10.7% 10.5% TMK Torchmark Corporation 56.40 7,064 7.7% -3.1% 13.8x 13.3x 12.2x 1.64x 1.83x 0.93% 5.18% 11.4% 12.7% 13.5% RGA Reinsurance Group of America, Incor- porated 90.59 6,017 13.1% -4.5% 10.3x 10.8x 9.7x 0.93x 0.93x 1.39% 5.01% 8.8% 10.4% 10.7% CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. 18.81 3,639 10.9% 2.5% 13.0x 14.1x 12.2x 0.83x 0.83x 1.53% 5.49% 6.4% 7.7% 7.6% GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. 4.62 2,298 -64.7% -39.0% NM 4.6x 4.2x 0.17x 0.17x 0.00% 4.13% -10.9% 3.8% 2.4% PRI Primerica, Inc. 45.07 2,258 -6.5% -1.4% 13.5x 12.4x 10.9x 1.89x 1.99x 1.40% 4.00% 14.3% 16.3% 17.5% AEL American Equity Investment Life Holding Company 23.31 1,790 1.9% -13.6% 9.9x 9.4x 8.8x 0.94x 0.94x 0.74% 4.40% 9.0% 10.7% 9.2% FFG FBL Financial Group, Inc. 61.52 1,527 37.6% 6.6% 13.5x 14.8x 13.9x 1.32x 1.33x 2.77% 5.13% 9.4% NA NA FGL Fidelity Guaranty Life 24.54 1,442 14.9% 3.9% 11.3x 13.6x 11.2x 0.92x NA 1.10% 5.08% 7.6% 6.4% 9.1% NWLI National Western Life Group, Inc. 222.70 810 -9.8% -7.0% 7.3x NA NA 0.51x 0.51x 0.15% 5.04% 6.9% NA NA KCLI Kansas City Life Insurance Company 46.99 500 6.0% 2.8% 15.4x NA NA 0.68x 0.68x 2.36% 4.59% 4.4% NA NA CIA Citizens, Inc. 7.42 372 14.9% -0.5% NM NA NA 1.49x 1.61x 0.00% 3.89% -4.0% NA NA IHC Independence Holding Company 12.96 225 -2.5% -1.7% 11.9x NA NA 0.76x 1.00x 0.68% 4.44% 6.5% NA NA Median 3,639 -0.8% -6.5% 11.9x 10.8x 9.7x 0.92x 0.94x 1.39% 4.60% 8.8% 10.7% 10.6%
  12. 12. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL FInancial 11 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Publicly Traded Companies Managed Care 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Price / Earnings Price / Book Div.Yield Invest. Yield ROE Ticker Name LTM FY15E FY16E P/B P/TB LTM FY15E FY16E UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated 116.01 110,442 34.5% -4.9% 18.5x 18.3x 15.8x 3.34x NA 1.64% 2.59% 18.8% 17.8% 16.6% AET Aetna Inc. 109.41 38,140 35.1% -14.2% 16.6x 14.5x 13.3x 2.48x NA 0.78% 3.81% 15.7% 16.4% 16.1% ANTM Anthem, Inc. 140.00 36,621 17.0% -14.7% 13.7x 13.7x 12.6x 1.59x NA 1.52% 3.47% 11.9% 11.0% 11.8% CI Cigna Corporation 135.02 34,761 48.9% -16.7% 16.7x 15.7x 14.3x 3.08x NA 0.02% 5.22% 19.3% 18.4% 17.1% HUM Humana Inc. 179.00 26,518 37.4% -6.4% 21.2x 23.1x 19.3x 2.63x 4.13x 0.61% 3.25% 13.0% 13.4% 11.8% CNC Centene Corporation 54.23 6,458 31.1% -32.5% 19.4x 19.3x 16.6x 3.33x NA 0.00% 1.12% 19.7% 16.9% 16.9% MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. 68.85 3,859 62.8% -2.1% 29.9x 26.4x 19.2x 2.64x 3.47x 0.00% 0.40% 11.1% 11.4% NA WCG WellCare Health Plans, Inc. 86.18 3,798 42.8% 1.6% 39.5x 25.0x 18.0x 2.28x 2.90x 0.00% 1.97% 6.0% 24.3% NA UAM Universal American Corp. 6.84 575 -14.9% -32.4% NM 45.0x 28.0x 0.95x 1.08x 0.00% 1.79% -3.2% NA NA GTS Triple-S Management Corporation 17.81 464 -10.5% -30.6% 7.3x 14.0x 13.7x 0.55x 0.57x 0.00% 4.95% 7.6% NA NA Median 16,488 34.8% -14.4% 18.5x 18.8x 16.2x 2.55x 2.90x 0.01% 2.92% 12.4% 16.7% 16.4%
  13. 13. © 2015 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com // Source: SNL FInancial 12 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Insurance Industry Third Quarter 2015 Publicly Traded Companies Brokers 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr EV ($M) EV / EBITDA EV / LTM Rev. Div.Yield LTM EBITDA Margin LTM Rev Growth Organic Rev Growth Ticker Name LTM FY15E FY16E 15Q2 15Q1 MMC Marsh McLennan Companies, Inc. 52.22 27,748 -0.2% -7.9% 30,754 11.6x 11.0x 10.0x 2.4x 2.19% 20.6% 1.6% 3.0% 3.0% AON Aon plc 88.61 24,793 1.1% -11.1% 30,487 12.5x 11.5x 10.7x 2.6x 1.05% 20.6% -0.4% 3.0% 4.0% WLTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company 108.53 7,359 -1.0% -12.6% 9,396 12.6x 11.0x 9.1x 2.5x 2.60% 19.6% 1.3% 1.6% 3.4% AJG Arthur J. Gallagher Co. 41.28 7,205 -9.0% -12.7% 9,255 13.5x 10.8x 9.5x 2.4x 3.13% 17.6% 26.8% 5.8% 5.7% BRO Brown Brown, Inc. 30.97 4,361 -3.7% -5.8% 5,115 10.4x 9.3x 8.8x 3.1x 1.34% 30.0% 11.9% 2.1% 2.9% Median 7,359 -1.0% -11.1% 9,396 12.5x 11.0x 9.5x 2.5x 2.19% 20.6% 1.64% 3.0% 3.4% InsurTech, Claims Services To 9/30/15 Price Market Cap ($M) Share Price %YOY Share Price %Qtr Total EV ($M) EV / EBITDA EV / LTM Rev. Div.Yield LTM EBITDA Margin LTM Rev Growth LTM Rev. ($M)Ticker Name LTM FY15E FY16E GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. 52.58 3,709 18.6% 5.3% 3,552 139.4x NA 49.4x 9.5x 0.00% 6.8% 13.3% 373 BNFT Benefitfocus, Inc. 31.25 898 16.0% -28.7% 898 NM NM NM 5.6x 0.00% -34.6% 33.6% 160 EBIX Ebix, Inc. 24.96 872 76.0% -23.5% 996 10.4x NA NA 4.2x 0.92% 39.8% 17.6% 240 CRVL CorVel Corporation 32.30 647 -5.1% 0.9% 601 9.7x NA NA 1.2x 0.00% 12.5% 2.1% 495 PN Patriot National, Inc. 15.83 418 NA -1.1% 496 13.8x 9.1x 6.2x 2.8x 0.00% 30.7% NA 176 CRD.B Crawford Company 5.61 311 -32.0% -33.5% 503 5.4x 5.0x 4.3x 0.4x 2.37% 7.5% 2.9% 1,252 CNXR Connecture, Inc. 4.56 100 NA -56.8% 139 NM NA NA 1.5x 0.00% -2.5% 25.7% 93 Median 647 16.0% -23.5% 601 10.4x 7.0x 6.2x 2.8x 0.00% 7.5% 15.5% 240
  14. 14. Mercer Capital Insurance Industry Services Contact Us Copyright © 2015 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. Mercer Capital provides the insurance industry with corporate valuation, financial reporting, transaction advisory, and related services. Industry Segments Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments: Agencies • Independent insurance brokers and agents • Bank-owned agencies • Retail, wholesale, and MGAs Ancillary • Third-party administrators • Claims adjusters and other service providers Mercer Capital Experience • Nationwide client base • Agency clients range from single office agencies to top-10 public brokers • Underwriter clients range from monoline privates to publicly traded multi-line carriers Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your needs in confidence. Lucas M. Parris, CFA, ASA 901.322.9784 parrisl@mercercapital.com Don Erickson, ASA 214.468.8400 ericksond@mercercapital.com Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS 214.468.8400 ericksonb@mercercapital.com Travis W. Harms, CFA, CPA/ABV 901.322.9760 harmst@mercercapital.com MERCER CAPITAL Memphis 5100 Poplar Avenue, Suite 2600 Memphis, Tennessee 38137 901.685.2120 Dallas 12201 Merit Drive, Suite 480 Dallas, Texas 75251 214.468.8400 Nashville 102 Woodmont Blvd., Suite 231 Nashville, Tennessee 37205 615.345.0350 www.mercercapital.com Underwriters • PC, life health, and managed care • Reinsurance • Captives and risk retention groups

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