58 Mission Command MILITARY REVIEW
Major Blair S. Williams, U.S. Army, is
a Joint planner at U.S. Strategic Com-
mand. He holds a B.S. from the U.S.
Military Academy (USMA), an M.S.
from the University of Missouri, and a
Ph.D. from Harvard University. He has
served in a variety of command and
staff positions, including deployments
to Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as an
assignment as an assistant professor
of economics in the Department of
Social Sciences at USMA.
_____________
PHOTO: U.S. Army SSG Clarence
Washington, Provincial Reconstruc-
tion Team Zabul security forces squad
leader, takes accountability after an
indirect fire attack in Qalat City, Zabul
Province, Afghanistan, 27 July 2010.
(U.S. Air Force photo/SrA Nathanael
Callon)
If we now consider briefly the subjective nature of war—the means by which war
has to be fought—it will look more than ever like a gamble . . . From the very
start there is an interplay of possibilities, probabilities, good luck, and bad that
weaves its way throughout the length and breadth of the tapestry. In the whole
range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of cards.
—Clausewitz, On War. 1
CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ’S metaphoric description of the condition of war is as accurate today as it was when he wrote it in the early
19th century. The Army faces an operating environment characterized by
volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.2 Military professionals
struggle to make sense of this paradoxical and chaotic setting. Succeed-
ing in this environment requires an emergent style of decision making,
where practitioners are willing to embrace improvisation and reflection.3
The theory of reflection-in-action requires practitioners to question the
structure of assumptions within their professional military knowledge.4
For commanders and staff officers to willingly try new approaches and
experiment on the spot in response to surprises, they must critically exam-
ine the heuristics (or “rules of thumb”) by which they make decisions and
understand how they may lead to potential bias. The institutional nature of
the military decision making process (MDMP), our organizational culture,
and our individual mental processes in how we make decisions shape these
heuristics and their accompanying biases.
The theory of reflection-in-action and its implications for decision
making may sit uneasily with many military professionals. Our established
doctrine for decision making is the MDMP. The process assumes objec-
tive rationality and is based on a linear, step-based model that generates
a specific course of action and is useful for the examination of problems
that exhibit stability and are underpinned by assumptions of “technical-
rationality.”5 The Army values MDMP as the sanctioned approach for
solving problems and making decisions. This stolid template is comforting;
we are familiar with it. However, what do we do when our enemy does
not conform to o.
Israel reformed its intelligence community in the 1990s in response to changing threats from non-state actors. Reforms included adopting systemic thinking over inductive analysis, restructuring analysis units, and improving relationships between analysts and decision-makers. Systemic thinking looks at interactions between all variables and common patterns across a system. It helps analysts avoid mirror-imaging and develop more comprehensive assessments. Key reforms also focused on recruitment of creative thinkers and leadership training for analysts.
This document summarizes a longer document about Project White Horse 084640, which aims to develop a concept for training commander leader teams (CLTs) to make better time-critical decisions during crisis response. It does this by:
1) Framing situations as "worst cases" like terrorism or major disasters.
2) Focusing on CLTs, which are teams composed of leaders from different response organizations.
3) Adding the element of time pressure to decision-making.
District Combatives Personal Protection Fundamentals [FINAL]Benjamin Drader
This document provides an overview of personal protection fundamentals, including situational awareness, threat identification, de-escalation, and self-defense techniques. It discusses establishing baselines of normal behavior and identifying anomalies to detect threats. Non-aggressive verbal de-escalation skills and postures are outlined to defuse threats if possible. As a last resort, targeting vulnerable areas like eyes and throat is recommended for self-defense. The document advocates viewing personal protection as concentric rings based on threat distance and training holistically across awareness, avoidance, de-escalation, and defense skills.
The document discusses various cognitive biases and heuristics that influence human decision-making, such as the planning fallacy in which people underestimate costs and overestimate benefits, and optimism bias which can motivate action but also lead to false beliefs. It also examines loss aversion bias and how optimism can help protect against the paralyzing effects of fearing losses more than valuing gains. A number of heuristics are explored, including the affect heuristic where emotional reactions can drive behavior over cognitive risk assessments.
Effect Based Operation (EBO) is a concept of fighting in peace, in a peaceful way. There are several concepts in strategic Management, that are also usable in EBO
The article examines volunteerism among homeless individuals with developmental disabilities. Researchers conducted a study comparing homeless individuals diagnosed with developmental delays to determine if there is a correlation between volunteerism and community integration. The study aimed to see if volunteerism suggests healthy community integration for this group of homeless individuals with developmental disabilities. The study sampled homeless adults residing in two St. Louis city parks who were aged 18 or older, received special education for developmental disabilities, and were currently homeless. Results found that over half of the sample had volunteered in the past year, and volunteerism was associated with greater community integration.
THE UNITED STATES NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
U.S. Navy Senior Enlisted Academy
RISK MITIGATION: DIVERSE CHALLENGES
FOR THE RISK PRACTITIONER
By
Prof. Ronald E. Ratcliff (Jan 2006)
Edited by Prof. Bud Baker (Nov 2017)
RISK MITIGATION: DIVERSE CHALLENGES
FOR THE RISK PRACTITIONER
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
─ Yogi Berra
INTRODUCTION
Risk and risk management are concepts that leaders and their staffs have come to appreciate in
increasing levels of sophistication. Operational Risk Management (ORM) is a process taught at
all levels in the Department of Defense. Yet, and somewhat ironically, senior civilian Defense
Department leadership has often been quite critical of the military services for their limited
understanding of, and general aversion to, risk. While one can build a defensible case for the
military’s penchant to avoid risk, the purpose of this paper is to examine more fully the
challenges that make astute risk management so difficult. As part of that discussion, we will
briefly examine the difficulties inherent in determining risk for low-probability but catastrophic
events. We will also examine briefly the processes used in risk management and the challenges
leaders face in making risk management decisions. Finally, we will address the challenges all
organizations face when communicating the rationale for their choices given the risks involved.
RISK
In a July 2004 study commissioned by the British government entitled Public Perception of Risk,
J. Richard Eiser noted that: “Risk is a feature of all human activity that results in some probable
benefit but also includes a potential cost or harm.”1 He further noted:
[E]verything that is important about risk arises from actual or perceived uncertainty ...
it is only because we need to act under conditions of uncertainty that the concept of risk
is of interest. If we felt there was nothing we could ever do to affect what might
happen to us, we would have no decisions to take and there would be no point in
worrying about the likelihood or value of future events. ... It is because these
consequences are uncertain, and may leave us better or worse off, that we talk about
risk.2
Risk is typically defined as “the combination of the probability of an event occurring and its
consequences.”3 Usually, organizations perceive those consequences in a negative context.
Within the Department of Defense, the term risk clearly has a negative implication defined as
“the probability and severity of a potential loss that may result from hazards...”4 Similarly, the
Naval War College characterizes risk as “the likelihood of failure and the consequence of
failure…”5 These definitions equate risk to the probability that an organization’s vulnerabilities
or weaknesses will permit an unwanted and/or harmful event to occur that will limit its ability to
achieve a.
Why Behavioral Finance is Helpful for Investors to Decision Making Process?QUESTJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: Behavioral finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets. It is of interest because it helps explain why and how markets might be inefficient.
Israel reformed its intelligence community in the 1990s in response to changing threats from non-state actors. Reforms included adopting systemic thinking over inductive analysis, restructuring analysis units, and improving relationships between analysts and decision-makers. Systemic thinking looks at interactions between all variables and common patterns across a system. It helps analysts avoid mirror-imaging and develop more comprehensive assessments. Key reforms also focused on recruitment of creative thinkers and leadership training for analysts.
This document summarizes a longer document about Project White Horse 084640, which aims to develop a concept for training commander leader teams (CLTs) to make better time-critical decisions during crisis response. It does this by:
1) Framing situations as "worst cases" like terrorism or major disasters.
2) Focusing on CLTs, which are teams composed of leaders from different response organizations.
3) Adding the element of time pressure to decision-making.
District Combatives Personal Protection Fundamentals [FINAL]Benjamin Drader
This document provides an overview of personal protection fundamentals, including situational awareness, threat identification, de-escalation, and self-defense techniques. It discusses establishing baselines of normal behavior and identifying anomalies to detect threats. Non-aggressive verbal de-escalation skills and postures are outlined to defuse threats if possible. As a last resort, targeting vulnerable areas like eyes and throat is recommended for self-defense. The document advocates viewing personal protection as concentric rings based on threat distance and training holistically across awareness, avoidance, de-escalation, and defense skills.
The document discusses various cognitive biases and heuristics that influence human decision-making, such as the planning fallacy in which people underestimate costs and overestimate benefits, and optimism bias which can motivate action but also lead to false beliefs. It also examines loss aversion bias and how optimism can help protect against the paralyzing effects of fearing losses more than valuing gains. A number of heuristics are explored, including the affect heuristic where emotional reactions can drive behavior over cognitive risk assessments.
Effect Based Operation (EBO) is a concept of fighting in peace, in a peaceful way. There are several concepts in strategic Management, that are also usable in EBO
The article examines volunteerism among homeless individuals with developmental disabilities. Researchers conducted a study comparing homeless individuals diagnosed with developmental delays to determine if there is a correlation between volunteerism and community integration. The study aimed to see if volunteerism suggests healthy community integration for this group of homeless individuals with developmental disabilities. The study sampled homeless adults residing in two St. Louis city parks who were aged 18 or older, received special education for developmental disabilities, and were currently homeless. Results found that over half of the sample had volunteered in the past year, and volunteerism was associated with greater community integration.
THE UNITED STATES NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
U.S. Navy Senior Enlisted Academy
RISK MITIGATION: DIVERSE CHALLENGES
FOR THE RISK PRACTITIONER
By
Prof. Ronald E. Ratcliff (Jan 2006)
Edited by Prof. Bud Baker (Nov 2017)
RISK MITIGATION: DIVERSE CHALLENGES
FOR THE RISK PRACTITIONER
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
─ Yogi Berra
INTRODUCTION
Risk and risk management are concepts that leaders and their staffs have come to appreciate in
increasing levels of sophistication. Operational Risk Management (ORM) is a process taught at
all levels in the Department of Defense. Yet, and somewhat ironically, senior civilian Defense
Department leadership has often been quite critical of the military services for their limited
understanding of, and general aversion to, risk. While one can build a defensible case for the
military’s penchant to avoid risk, the purpose of this paper is to examine more fully the
challenges that make astute risk management so difficult. As part of that discussion, we will
briefly examine the difficulties inherent in determining risk for low-probability but catastrophic
events. We will also examine briefly the processes used in risk management and the challenges
leaders face in making risk management decisions. Finally, we will address the challenges all
organizations face when communicating the rationale for their choices given the risks involved.
RISK
In a July 2004 study commissioned by the British government entitled Public Perception of Risk,
J. Richard Eiser noted that: “Risk is a feature of all human activity that results in some probable
benefit but also includes a potential cost or harm.”1 He further noted:
[E]verything that is important about risk arises from actual or perceived uncertainty ...
it is only because we need to act under conditions of uncertainty that the concept of risk
is of interest. If we felt there was nothing we could ever do to affect what might
happen to us, we would have no decisions to take and there would be no point in
worrying about the likelihood or value of future events. ... It is because these
consequences are uncertain, and may leave us better or worse off, that we talk about
risk.2
Risk is typically defined as “the combination of the probability of an event occurring and its
consequences.”3 Usually, organizations perceive those consequences in a negative context.
Within the Department of Defense, the term risk clearly has a negative implication defined as
“the probability and severity of a potential loss that may result from hazards...”4 Similarly, the
Naval War College characterizes risk as “the likelihood of failure and the consequence of
failure…”5 These definitions equate risk to the probability that an organization’s vulnerabilities
or weaknesses will permit an unwanted and/or harmful event to occur that will limit its ability to
achieve a.
Why Behavioral Finance is Helpful for Investors to Decision Making Process?QUESTJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: Behavioral finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets. It is of interest because it helps explain why and how markets might be inefficient.
This document discusses strategic attack capabilities needed in the year 2025. It outlines four key elements: system analysis to determine an adversary's Locus of Values (LOV), target acquisition to locate the LOV, target engagement to affect the LOV, and feedback to determine results. For system analysis, it argues advanced artificial intelligence and vast databases will be needed to help decision makers understand diverse adversaries. Target acquisition will require novel sensors across multiple platforms. Target engagement must be able to impact LOVs in various ways, whether lethally, non-lethally, directly, or indirectly. Feedback will assess if strategic attacks achieved their intended effects.
The Joint Concept for Human Aspects of Military Operations (JC-HAMO) document outlines a framework for understanding human behavior and influencing relevant actors to achieve strategic objectives. It recognizes that military success does not always translate to achieving political goals, and that the Joint Force needs to focus on how human factors like culture, society and psychology influence decisions. The framework identifies four imperatives: 1) identify relevant actors and their networks, 2) evaluate actor behavior in context, 3) anticipate actor decision-making, and 4) influence actor will and decisions. The goal is for the Joint Force to develop a deeper understanding of human aspects to conduct more effective operations that create enduring strategic outcomes.
A Five-Point Strategy to Oppose Russian Narrative Warfare (with the limited t...Paul Cobaugh
Before retiring from the US Army in late 2015, I spent most of my career in a community which had as one of their mantras, albeit an unwritten one; that when presented with a problem, “don’t just complain, present solutions”. This paper is just that, a discussion of pragmatic and recommended solutions for protecting ourselves from Russian narrative/ information warfare.
This paper is intentionally written in narrative form rather than the usual linear strategy format. We are after all, talking about narrative warfare. It is also written as plain-spoken as possible so that everyone from policy-makers and national security strategy professionals through well-informed citizens can follow the discussion.
ute.
Envisioning Leadership Beyond the Battlefield. How do you do it SorensonGeorgia Sorenson
The document summarizes the author's experience as a professor at the US Army War College, where senior Army leaders are trained. Some key lessons about leadership that the author learned from the Army include:
1) The Army pioneered the study of leadership and places great emphasis on developing leadership skills through various schools and training programs.
2) Processes like the After Action Review help the Army continuously learn and improve through reflection on successes and failures.
3) The concept of "Commander's Intent" provides strategic guidance while allowing flexibility in implementation.
4) Understanding different perspectives, including that of an enemy, is important for strategic thinking and devising effective counterstrategies.
UNDERSTANDING DECISION/ GAME THEORY FOR BETTER RISK ASSESSMENT.Kaustav Lahiri
1) Decision theory is concerned with identifying values, uncertainties, and other factors relevant to a given decision in order to determine the optimal decision. It is closely related to game theory.
2) Normative decision theory aims to identify the best decision assuming perfect rationality, while descriptive decision theory describes actual decision-making behaviors under consistent rules.
3) Choices can involve certainty, uncertainty over time, interactions between decision makers, or complex situations. Different representations like extensive form, normal form, and characteristic function form are used to model different types of decisions.
Dissertation Completed and Published in 2011Mary Allen
This dissertation examines stress, life satisfaction, and counseling utilization among police officers through a mixed methods approach. A literature review explores previous research on stress experienced by police officers and the impact of counseling. The study aims to determine if differences exist in stress levels and life satisfaction between officers who have received counseling and those who have not. It also seeks to identify factors that encourage officers to seek counseling. The dissertation utilizes surveys and questionnaires to collect both quantitative and qualitative data to address the research questions.
Lesson Eight Moral Development and Moral IntensityLesson Seve.docxsmile790243
Lesson Eight: Moral Development and Moral Intensity
Lesson Seven discussed the different codifications of moral precepts over the course of human history which have attempted to simplify moral prescriptions. Lesson Eight will introduce the various stages of moral development within individuals, as well as the way moral intensity is rationalized on a case-by-case basis.
Moral Development
As we have discussed in previous lessons, ethics rely on morality and a reasoned analysis of the factors that affect human well-being (Kohlberg & Hersh, 1977). However, at this juncture it is important to note that not all individuals are capable of the same level of moral reasoning. Some of the differences in reasoning ability are attributable to age; the more mature that one is, the more likely they are to reach the higher levels of moral development. However, adulthood is not a guarantee that an individual will achieve the most sophisticated levels of moral reasoning. Some will never get there, and this is a significant obstacle to any hope of universally accepted objective morality.
1. Preconventional Reasoning: The preconventional level of moral reasoning is the most primitive. At the preconventional level, choices are assessed based only on personal consequences. In other words, the actor makes choices that render rewards, and refrains from choices that render punishments (Graham, 1995). Preconventional reasoning is as much as non-human animal reasoning typically allows. Granted, it is not uncommon for some mammals to act self-sacrificially to preserve their offspring, and there have been reports of pets putting themselves in harm’s way to protect their human owners, but these are limited contexts. In almost every other situation, animals are driven first and foremost by self-preservation, and secondly, self-optimization. Preconventional reasoning is also the first strategy learned in the sequence of human development. Children typically think about their own consequences when deciding upon behavior. If doing chores is rewarded with an allowance, and coloring on the walls will result in grounding, children are likely to embrace the former and avoid the latter, all other things being equal. Although the vast majority of humans graduate from this level, it is important to note that many adults still regularly make choices that are based predominantly on preconventional reasoning. This is to say, selfish acts are frighteningly common.
2. Conventional Reasoning: The second level of moral reasoning is that of conventional reasoning. One step removed from pure selfishness, the conventional level of reasoning looks not simply to personal consequences (although this is still a factor), but also to social expectations in a societal context (Logsdon & Yuthas, 1997). Instances of conventional moral reasoning can be found almost anywhere one looks. For example, it is generally considered rude to cut other people in a line, so although one’s assessment of persona ...
Cause and effect analysis provides us with the means of specifying the causes of an event, condition or situation, or alternatively, of determining the consequences that can result from some action or series of actions.
This document discusses the difference between causes and reasons in case method analysis. It argues that case discussants often conflate causes and reasons, leading to impasses in analysis. Specifically:
- Causality is difficult to determine in business contexts compared to physical sciences, where causes and effects can be more clearly defined.
- When analysis reaches an impasse, discussants may feel "learned helplessness" and see the decision as arbitrary, halting discussion.
- To prevent cynicism, the instructor must punctuate discussion and reassure discussants that rational decision making is an ideal to strive for even if not always achieved.
- Differentiating between causes and reasons can help address impasses by
The Future of Humanity Nick Bostrom Future of Humanit.docxbarbaran11
The Future of Humanity
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute
Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School
Oxford University
www.nickbostrom.com
[Complete draft circulated (2007)]
[Published in New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Evan
Selinger, & Soren Riis (New York: Palgrave McMillan, 2009)]
[Reprinted in the journal Geopolitics, History, and International Relations, forthcoming]
Abstract
The future of humanity is often viewed as a topic for idle speculation. Yet our beliefs and
assumptions on this subject matter shape decisions in both our personal lives and public
policy – decisions that have very real and sometimes unfortunate consequences. It is
therefore practically important to try to develop a realistic mode of futuristic thought about
big picture questions for humanity. This paper sketches an overview of some recent attempts
in this direction, and it offers a brief discussion of four families of scenarios for humanity’s
future: extinction, recurrent collapse, plateau, and posthumanity.
The future of humanity as an inescapable topic
In one sense, the future of humanity comprises everything that will ever happen to any
human being, including what you will have for breakfast next Thursday and all the scientific
discoveries that will be made next year. In that sense, it is hardly reasonable to think of the
future of humanity as a topic: it is too big and too diverse to be addressed as a whole in a
single essay, monograph, or even 100-volume book series. It is made into a topic by way of
abstraction. We abstract from details and short-term fluctuations and developments that
affect only some limited aspect of our lives. A discussion about the future of humanity is
about how the important fundamental features of the human condition may change or remain
constant in the long run.
What features of the human condition are fundamental and important? On this there
can be reasonable disagreement. Nonetheless, some features qualify by almost any standard.
For example, whether and when Earth-originating life will go extinct, whether it will
colonize the galaxy, whether human biology will be fundamentally transformed to make us
posthuman, whether machine intelligence will surpass biological intelligence, whether
1
http://www.nickbostrom.com/
population size will explode, and whether quality of life will radically improve or deteriorate:
these are all important fundamental questions about the future of humanity. Less
fundamental questions – for instance, about methodologies or specific technology projections
– are also relevant insofar as they inform our views about more fundamental parameters.
Traditionally, the future of humanity has been a topic for theology. All the major
religions have teachings about the ultimate destiny of humanity or the end of the world.1
Eschatological themes have also been explored by big-name philosopher.
This document is a research paper submitted to the Air Command and Staff College at Maxwell Air Force Base analyzing suicide terrorism. It begins by defining suicide terrorism as a violent, politically motivated attack carried out by a person who kills themselves to successfully attack a target. The paper then discusses how suicide terrorism is an increasing threat, with data from several scholars showing a dramatic rise in suicide attacks over the past few decades, especially recent years. Specifically, attacks have risen from around 10 per year in the 1990s to over 460 in 2005. The increase presents a disturbing trend and immediate threat.
This paper examines different approaches to self-defense training for police officers. It discusses debates around incorporating martial arts techniques versus simpler defensive tactics. Proponents of martial arts argue it improves officers' skills and confidence, while critics say it is too complex to learn within limited training time. The paper also addresses the importance of training officers' mindsets to respond decisively yet avoid escalating situations. Overall, the best approach depends on departments' time and resources, but effective training incorporates verbal de-escalation, weapon retention, and handcuffing techniques.
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from rational judgment that occur in human decision making. There are over 188 known types of cognitive biases that fall under categories like decision making biases, social biases, and memory errors. Some examples of cognitive biases include anchoring bias, where people rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered; bandwagon effect, where people do something because others are doing it regardless of their own beliefs; and confirmation bias, where people interpret information in a way that confirms their preexisting beliefs. Understanding cognitive biases is important because they influence how people think and make judgments in ways that can lead to irrational decisions.
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Anchoring and Adjustment BiasMicheal Axelsen
This paper sets out the general basis for the
concept of the anchoring and adjustment bias.
Need to focus on anchoring and adjustment in the process of using these audit tools.
(ironically this document is not likely to be used for my phd).
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note Please change the column names.docxaudeleypearl
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note: Please change the column names based on your industry and your selected companies.RATIOS<INDUSTRY><COMPANY #1><COMPANY #2>ANALYSIS (your comments), which company is stronger, better/worse than industry, what results meanProfitability Ratios (%)show calculationshow ending resultshoww Calculationshow resultGross Margin EBITD Margin Operating Margin Pretax Margin Effective Tax Rate Financial StrengthQuick RatioCurrent Ratio LT Debt to Equity Total Debt to Equity Interest Coverage Valuation RatiosP/E Ratio Price to Sales (P/S)Price to Book (P/B)Price to Tangible Book Price to Cash FlowPrice to Free Cash Flow Management Effectiveness (%)Return On Assets Return On Investment Return On Equity DividendsDividend YieldPayout Ratio EfficiencyRevenue/Employee Net Income/Employee Receivable TurnoverInventory TurnoverAsset Turnover SummaryWhat is ratio analysis? Briefly explain in this space, and reference your resources: Referring to your ratio analysis above, in which company would you be willing to invest, and why?
Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas
Heather Rosoff • Jinshu Cui • Richard S. John
Published online: 28 September 2013
� Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
Abstract Cyber security often depends on decisions
made by human operators, who are commonly considered a
major cause of security failures. We conducted 2 behav-
ioral experiments to explore whether and how cyber
security decision-making responses depend on gain–loss
framing and salience of a primed recall prior experience. In
Experiment I, we employed a 2 9 2 factorial design,
manipulating the frame (gain vs. loss) and the presence
versus absence of a prior near-miss experience. Results
suggest that the experience of a near-miss significantly
increased respondents’ endorsement of safer response
options under a gain frame. Overall, female respondents
were more likely to select a risk averse (safe) response
compared with males. Experiment II followed the same
general paradigm, framing all consequences in a loss frame
and manipulating recall to include one of three possible
prior experiences: false alarm, near-miss, or a hit involving
a loss of data. Results indicate that the manipulated prior
hit experience significantly increased the likelihood of
respondents’ endorsement of a safer response relative to
the manipulated prior near-miss experience. Conversely,
the manipulated prior false-alarm experience significantly
decreased respondents’ likelihood of endorsing a safer
response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss
experience. These results also showed a main effect for age
and were moderated by respondent’s income level.
Keywords Cyber security � Framing effect �
Near-miss � Decision making
1 Introduction
Individual users regularly make decisions that affect the
security of their personal devices connected to the internet
and, in turn, to the security of the cybersphere. For
example, th ...
Human factors in soccer, Communication in an Adversarial SettingLarry Paul
Too often soccer is reduced to simple technological fixes for complex human problems. This presentation looks at the human factors in the game through the lens of wildland fire fighting. A field that’s deadly serious, rigorously studied, debated with much to offer the game. Yet soccer is much more complex then wildland fire fighting. It’s an adversarial activity and must move a step beyond the lessons here.
1) The document provides an overview of a framework for deception that was developed to better understand and analyze deceptions.
2) The framework models deceptions involving individuals, computers, networks, and organizations. It was used to model select deceptions and assist in developing new ones.
3) Further work is needed to systematize the creation of defensive deceptions, including expanding the collection of deception materials, creating a database to support deception analysis and creation, and maintaining a team of experts to implement specific deceptions.
Safety is not a good basis for security, but the reverse may not be true. This paper discusses using the techniques of security vulnerability assessments to improve safety.
The beer game - a production distribution simulationTristan Wiggill
A presentation by Michael D. Ford CFPIM, CSCP, CQA, CRE, CQE, Principal, TQM Works Consulting, USA delivered during the 38th annual SAPICS event for supply chain professionals in Sun City, South Africa.
The Beer Game was developed by Jay Forrester at MIT’s Sloan business school in the early 1960s. It is a simple yet realistic simulator of the supply chain and is used as a teaching tool for systems dynamics. It has been played all over the world by thousands of people ranging from high school students to chief executive officers and government officials. Each participant plays a role in the production and distribution of a product, in this case “beer”.
The document summarizes feedback from representatives of different military branches in response to a policy brief about the relationship between deployment, combat experience, and military suicide. The representatives point out that most military suicides are among those who have never deployed and that deployment may actually have a protective effect by enhancing social connections. While previous research has focused on deployment as a risk factor, the discussed perspectives suggest the relationship is complex and that social integration and connectedness could be more important factors to consider.
The document discusses planning for material and resource requirements in operations management. It describes the relationships between forecasting, aggregate planning, master scheduling, MRP, and capacity planning. A case study is provided on how a toy company develops its aggregate production plan and master production schedule to meet demand forecasts while maintaining consistent production levels and workforce. The master schedule is adjusted as actual customer orders are received to ensure demand can be met from current inventory and production levels.
a 12 page paper on how individuals of color would be a more dominant.docxpriestmanmable
a 12 page paper on how individuals of color would be a more dominant number if they had more resources and discrimination of color was ceased. Must include those who discriminate against skin color and must include facts from sources that help individuals gain insight on the possibility of colored individuals thriving in society if same resourcesAnd equal opportunity was provided.
.
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1) The Army pioneered the study of leadership and places great emphasis on developing leadership skills through various schools and training programs.
2) Processes like the After Action Review help the Army continuously learn and improve through reflection on successes and failures.
3) The concept of "Commander's Intent" provides strategic guidance while allowing flexibility in implementation.
4) Understanding different perspectives, including that of an enemy, is important for strategic thinking and devising effective counterstrategies.
UNDERSTANDING DECISION/ GAME THEORY FOR BETTER RISK ASSESSMENT.Kaustav Lahiri
1) Decision theory is concerned with identifying values, uncertainties, and other factors relevant to a given decision in order to determine the optimal decision. It is closely related to game theory.
2) Normative decision theory aims to identify the best decision assuming perfect rationality, while descriptive decision theory describes actual decision-making behaviors under consistent rules.
3) Choices can involve certainty, uncertainty over time, interactions between decision makers, or complex situations. Different representations like extensive form, normal form, and characteristic function form are used to model different types of decisions.
Dissertation Completed and Published in 2011Mary Allen
This dissertation examines stress, life satisfaction, and counseling utilization among police officers through a mixed methods approach. A literature review explores previous research on stress experienced by police officers and the impact of counseling. The study aims to determine if differences exist in stress levels and life satisfaction between officers who have received counseling and those who have not. It also seeks to identify factors that encourage officers to seek counseling. The dissertation utilizes surveys and questionnaires to collect both quantitative and qualitative data to address the research questions.
Lesson Eight Moral Development and Moral IntensityLesson Seve.docxsmile790243
Lesson Eight: Moral Development and Moral Intensity
Lesson Seven discussed the different codifications of moral precepts over the course of human history which have attempted to simplify moral prescriptions. Lesson Eight will introduce the various stages of moral development within individuals, as well as the way moral intensity is rationalized on a case-by-case basis.
Moral Development
As we have discussed in previous lessons, ethics rely on morality and a reasoned analysis of the factors that affect human well-being (Kohlberg & Hersh, 1977). However, at this juncture it is important to note that not all individuals are capable of the same level of moral reasoning. Some of the differences in reasoning ability are attributable to age; the more mature that one is, the more likely they are to reach the higher levels of moral development. However, adulthood is not a guarantee that an individual will achieve the most sophisticated levels of moral reasoning. Some will never get there, and this is a significant obstacle to any hope of universally accepted objective morality.
1. Preconventional Reasoning: The preconventional level of moral reasoning is the most primitive. At the preconventional level, choices are assessed based only on personal consequences. In other words, the actor makes choices that render rewards, and refrains from choices that render punishments (Graham, 1995). Preconventional reasoning is as much as non-human animal reasoning typically allows. Granted, it is not uncommon for some mammals to act self-sacrificially to preserve their offspring, and there have been reports of pets putting themselves in harm’s way to protect their human owners, but these are limited contexts. In almost every other situation, animals are driven first and foremost by self-preservation, and secondly, self-optimization. Preconventional reasoning is also the first strategy learned in the sequence of human development. Children typically think about their own consequences when deciding upon behavior. If doing chores is rewarded with an allowance, and coloring on the walls will result in grounding, children are likely to embrace the former and avoid the latter, all other things being equal. Although the vast majority of humans graduate from this level, it is important to note that many adults still regularly make choices that are based predominantly on preconventional reasoning. This is to say, selfish acts are frighteningly common.
2. Conventional Reasoning: The second level of moral reasoning is that of conventional reasoning. One step removed from pure selfishness, the conventional level of reasoning looks not simply to personal consequences (although this is still a factor), but also to social expectations in a societal context (Logsdon & Yuthas, 1997). Instances of conventional moral reasoning can be found almost anywhere one looks. For example, it is generally considered rude to cut other people in a line, so although one’s assessment of persona ...
Cause and effect analysis provides us with the means of specifying the causes of an event, condition or situation, or alternatively, of determining the consequences that can result from some action or series of actions.
This document discusses the difference between causes and reasons in case method analysis. It argues that case discussants often conflate causes and reasons, leading to impasses in analysis. Specifically:
- Causality is difficult to determine in business contexts compared to physical sciences, where causes and effects can be more clearly defined.
- When analysis reaches an impasse, discussants may feel "learned helplessness" and see the decision as arbitrary, halting discussion.
- To prevent cynicism, the instructor must punctuate discussion and reassure discussants that rational decision making is an ideal to strive for even if not always achieved.
- Differentiating between causes and reasons can help address impasses by
The Future of Humanity Nick Bostrom Future of Humanit.docxbarbaran11
The Future of Humanity
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute
Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School
Oxford University
www.nickbostrom.com
[Complete draft circulated (2007)]
[Published in New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Evan
Selinger, & Soren Riis (New York: Palgrave McMillan, 2009)]
[Reprinted in the journal Geopolitics, History, and International Relations, forthcoming]
Abstract
The future of humanity is often viewed as a topic for idle speculation. Yet our beliefs and
assumptions on this subject matter shape decisions in both our personal lives and public
policy – decisions that have very real and sometimes unfortunate consequences. It is
therefore practically important to try to develop a realistic mode of futuristic thought about
big picture questions for humanity. This paper sketches an overview of some recent attempts
in this direction, and it offers a brief discussion of four families of scenarios for humanity’s
future: extinction, recurrent collapse, plateau, and posthumanity.
The future of humanity as an inescapable topic
In one sense, the future of humanity comprises everything that will ever happen to any
human being, including what you will have for breakfast next Thursday and all the scientific
discoveries that will be made next year. In that sense, it is hardly reasonable to think of the
future of humanity as a topic: it is too big and too diverse to be addressed as a whole in a
single essay, monograph, or even 100-volume book series. It is made into a topic by way of
abstraction. We abstract from details and short-term fluctuations and developments that
affect only some limited aspect of our lives. A discussion about the future of humanity is
about how the important fundamental features of the human condition may change or remain
constant in the long run.
What features of the human condition are fundamental and important? On this there
can be reasonable disagreement. Nonetheless, some features qualify by almost any standard.
For example, whether and when Earth-originating life will go extinct, whether it will
colonize the galaxy, whether human biology will be fundamentally transformed to make us
posthuman, whether machine intelligence will surpass biological intelligence, whether
1
http://www.nickbostrom.com/
population size will explode, and whether quality of life will radically improve or deteriorate:
these are all important fundamental questions about the future of humanity. Less
fundamental questions – for instance, about methodologies or specific technology projections
– are also relevant insofar as they inform our views about more fundamental parameters.
Traditionally, the future of humanity has been a topic for theology. All the major
religions have teachings about the ultimate destiny of humanity or the end of the world.1
Eschatological themes have also been explored by big-name philosopher.
This document is a research paper submitted to the Air Command and Staff College at Maxwell Air Force Base analyzing suicide terrorism. It begins by defining suicide terrorism as a violent, politically motivated attack carried out by a person who kills themselves to successfully attack a target. The paper then discusses how suicide terrorism is an increasing threat, with data from several scholars showing a dramatic rise in suicide attacks over the past few decades, especially recent years. Specifically, attacks have risen from around 10 per year in the 1990s to over 460 in 2005. The increase presents a disturbing trend and immediate threat.
This paper examines different approaches to self-defense training for police officers. It discusses debates around incorporating martial arts techniques versus simpler defensive tactics. Proponents of martial arts argue it improves officers' skills and confidence, while critics say it is too complex to learn within limited training time. The paper also addresses the importance of training officers' mindsets to respond decisively yet avoid escalating situations. Overall, the best approach depends on departments' time and resources, but effective training incorporates verbal de-escalation, weapon retention, and handcuffing techniques.
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from rational judgment that occur in human decision making. There are over 188 known types of cognitive biases that fall under categories like decision making biases, social biases, and memory errors. Some examples of cognitive biases include anchoring bias, where people rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered; bandwagon effect, where people do something because others are doing it regardless of their own beliefs; and confirmation bias, where people interpret information in a way that confirms their preexisting beliefs. Understanding cognitive biases is important because they influence how people think and make judgments in ways that can lead to irrational decisions.
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Anchoring and Adjustment BiasMicheal Axelsen
This paper sets out the general basis for the
concept of the anchoring and adjustment bias.
Need to focus on anchoring and adjustment in the process of using these audit tools.
(ironically this document is not likely to be used for my phd).
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note Please change the column names.docxaudeleypearl
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note: Please change the column names based on your industry and your selected companies.RATIOS<INDUSTRY><COMPANY #1><COMPANY #2>ANALYSIS (your comments), which company is stronger, better/worse than industry, what results meanProfitability Ratios (%)show calculationshow ending resultshoww Calculationshow resultGross Margin EBITD Margin Operating Margin Pretax Margin Effective Tax Rate Financial StrengthQuick RatioCurrent Ratio LT Debt to Equity Total Debt to Equity Interest Coverage Valuation RatiosP/E Ratio Price to Sales (P/S)Price to Book (P/B)Price to Tangible Book Price to Cash FlowPrice to Free Cash Flow Management Effectiveness (%)Return On Assets Return On Investment Return On Equity DividendsDividend YieldPayout Ratio EfficiencyRevenue/Employee Net Income/Employee Receivable TurnoverInventory TurnoverAsset Turnover SummaryWhat is ratio analysis? Briefly explain in this space, and reference your resources: Referring to your ratio analysis above, in which company would you be willing to invest, and why?
Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas
Heather Rosoff • Jinshu Cui • Richard S. John
Published online: 28 September 2013
� Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
Abstract Cyber security often depends on decisions
made by human operators, who are commonly considered a
major cause of security failures. We conducted 2 behav-
ioral experiments to explore whether and how cyber
security decision-making responses depend on gain–loss
framing and salience of a primed recall prior experience. In
Experiment I, we employed a 2 9 2 factorial design,
manipulating the frame (gain vs. loss) and the presence
versus absence of a prior near-miss experience. Results
suggest that the experience of a near-miss significantly
increased respondents’ endorsement of safer response
options under a gain frame. Overall, female respondents
were more likely to select a risk averse (safe) response
compared with males. Experiment II followed the same
general paradigm, framing all consequences in a loss frame
and manipulating recall to include one of three possible
prior experiences: false alarm, near-miss, or a hit involving
a loss of data. Results indicate that the manipulated prior
hit experience significantly increased the likelihood of
respondents’ endorsement of a safer response relative to
the manipulated prior near-miss experience. Conversely,
the manipulated prior false-alarm experience significantly
decreased respondents’ likelihood of endorsing a safer
response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss
experience. These results also showed a main effect for age
and were moderated by respondent’s income level.
Keywords Cyber security � Framing effect �
Near-miss � Decision making
1 Introduction
Individual users regularly make decisions that affect the
security of their personal devices connected to the internet
and, in turn, to the security of the cybersphere. For
example, th ...
Human factors in soccer, Communication in an Adversarial SettingLarry Paul
Too often soccer is reduced to simple technological fixes for complex human problems. This presentation looks at the human factors in the game through the lens of wildland fire fighting. A field that’s deadly serious, rigorously studied, debated with much to offer the game. Yet soccer is much more complex then wildland fire fighting. It’s an adversarial activity and must move a step beyond the lessons here.
1) The document provides an overview of a framework for deception that was developed to better understand and analyze deceptions.
2) The framework models deceptions involving individuals, computers, networks, and organizations. It was used to model select deceptions and assist in developing new ones.
3) Further work is needed to systematize the creation of defensive deceptions, including expanding the collection of deception materials, creating a database to support deception analysis and creation, and maintaining a team of experts to implement specific deceptions.
Safety is not a good basis for security, but the reverse may not be true. This paper discusses using the techniques of security vulnerability assessments to improve safety.
The beer game - a production distribution simulationTristan Wiggill
A presentation by Michael D. Ford CFPIM, CSCP, CQA, CRE, CQE, Principal, TQM Works Consulting, USA delivered during the 38th annual SAPICS event for supply chain professionals in Sun City, South Africa.
The Beer Game was developed by Jay Forrester at MIT’s Sloan business school in the early 1960s. It is a simple yet realistic simulator of the supply chain and is used as a teaching tool for systems dynamics. It has been played all over the world by thousands of people ranging from high school students to chief executive officers and government officials. Each participant plays a role in the production and distribution of a product, in this case “beer”.
The document summarizes feedback from representatives of different military branches in response to a policy brief about the relationship between deployment, combat experience, and military suicide. The representatives point out that most military suicides are among those who have never deployed and that deployment may actually have a protective effect by enhancing social connections. While previous research has focused on deployment as a risk factor, the discussed perspectives suggest the relationship is complex and that social integration and connectedness could be more important factors to consider.
Similar to 58 Mission Command MILITARY REVIEWMajor Blair S. William.docx (20)
The document discusses planning for material and resource requirements in operations management. It describes the relationships between forecasting, aggregate planning, master scheduling, MRP, and capacity planning. A case study is provided on how a toy company develops its aggregate production plan and master production schedule to meet demand forecasts while maintaining consistent production levels and workforce. The master schedule is adjusted as actual customer orders are received to ensure demand can be met from current inventory and production levels.
a 12 page paper on how individuals of color would be a more dominant.docxpriestmanmable
a 12 page paper on how individuals of color would be a more dominant number if they had more resources and discrimination of color was ceased. Must include those who discriminate against skin color and must include facts from sources that help individuals gain insight on the possibility of colored individuals thriving in society if same resourcesAnd equal opportunity was provided.
.
92 Academic Journal Article Critique Help with Journal Ar.docxpriestmanmable
92 Academic Journal Article Critique
Help with Journal Article Critique Assignment
Ensure the structure of the assignment will include the following:
Title Page
Introduction
Description of the Problem or Issue
Analysis
Discussion
Critique
Conclusion
References
.
A ) Society perspective90 year old female, Mrs. Ruth, from h.docxpriestmanmable
A ) Society perspective
90 year old female, Mrs. Ruth, from home with her daughter, is admitted to hospital after sustaining a hip fracture. She has a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on home oxygen and moderate to severe aortic stenosis. (Obstruction of blood flow through part of the heart) She undergoes urgent hemiarthroplasty (hip surgery) with an uneventful operative course.
The patient and her family are of Jewish background. The patient’s daughter is her primary caregiver and has financial power-of-attorney, but it is not known whether she has formal power of attorney for personal care. Concerns have been raised to the ICU team about the possibility of elder abuse in the home by the patient’s daughter.
Unfortunately, on postoperative day 4, the patient develops delirium with respiratory failure secondary to hospital acquired pneumonia and pulmonary edema. (Fluid in the lungs) Her goals of care were not assessed pre-operatively. She is admitted to the ICU for non-invasive positive pressure ventilation for 48 hours, and then deteriorates and is intubated. After 48 hours of ventilation, it was determined that due to the severity of her underlying cardio-pulmonary status (COPD and aortic stenosis), ventilator weaning would be difficult and further ventilation would be futile.
The patient’s daughter is insistent on continuing all forms of life support, including mechanical ventilation and even extracorporeal membranous oxygenation (does the work of the lungs) if indicated. However, the Mrs Ruth’s delirium clears within the next 24 hours of intubation, and she is now competent, although still mechanically ventilated. She communicated to the ICU team that she preferred 1-way extubation (removal of the ventilator) and comfort care. This was communicated in writing to the ICU team, and was consistent over time with other care providers. The patient went as far to demand the extubation over the next hour, which was felt to be reasonable by the ICU team.
The patient’s daughter was informed of this decision, and stated that she could not come to the hospital for 2 hours, and in the meantime, that the patient must remain intubated.
At this point, the ICU team concurred with the patient’s wishes, and extubated her before her daughter was able to come to the hospital.
The daughter was angry at the team’s decision, and requested that the patient be re-intubated if she deteriorated. When the daughter arrived at the hospital, the patient and daughter were able to converse, and the patient then agreed to re-intubation if she deteriorated.
(1) What are the ethical issues emerging in this case? State why? (
KRISTINA)
(2) What decision model(s) would be ideal for application in this case? State your justification.
(Lacey Powell
)
(3) Who should make decisions in this situation? Should the ICU team have extubated the patient?
State if additional information was necessary for you to arrive at a better decision(s) in your case.
9 dissuasion question Bartol, C. R., & Bartol, A. M. (2017)..docxpriestmanmable
9 dissuasion question
Bartol, C. R., & Bartol, A. M. (2017). Criminal behavior: A psychological approach (11th ed.). Boston, MA: Pearson.
Chapter 12, “Sexual Assault” (pp. 348–375)
Chapter 13, “Sexual Abuse of Children and Youth” (pp. 376–402)
To prepare for this Discussion:
Review the Learning Resources.
Think about the following two statements:
Rape is seen as a pseudosexual act.
Rape is always and foremost an aggressive act.
Consider the two statements above regarding motivation of sexual assault. Is rape classified as a pseudosexual act to you, or is it more or less than that? Explain your stance. Do you see rape as an aggressive act by nature, or can it be considered otherwise in certain situations? Explain your reasoning for this.
Excellent - above expectations
Main Discussion Posting Content
Points Range:
21.6 (54%) - 24 (60%)
Discussion posting demonstrates an
excellent
understanding of
all
of the concepts and key points presented in the text/s and Learning Resources. Posting provides significant detail including multiple relevant examples, evidence from the readings and other scholarly sources, and discerning ideas.
Points Range:
19.2 (48%) - 21.57 (53.92%)
Discussion posting demonstrates a
good
understanding of
most
of the concepts and key points presented in the text/s and Learning Resources. Posting provides moderate detail (including at least one pertinent example), evidence from the readings and other scholarly sources, and discerning ideas.
Points Range:
16.8 (42%) - 19.17 (47.93%)
Discussion posting demonstrates a
fair
understanding of the concepts and key points as presented in the text/s and Learning Resources. Posting may be
lacking
or incorrect in some area, or in detail and specificity, and/or may not include sufficient pertinent examples or provide sufficient evidence from the readings.
Points Range:
0 (0%) - 16.77 (41.93%)
Discussion posting demonstrates
poor or no
understanding of the concepts and key points of the text/s and Learning Resources. Posting is incorrect and/or shallow and/or does not include any pertinent examples or provide sufficient evidence from the readings.
Reply Post & Peer Interaction
Points Range:
7.2 (18%) - 8 (20%)
Student interacts
frequently
with peers. The feedback postings and responses to questions are excellent and fully contribute to the quality of interaction by offering constructive critique, suggestions, in-depth questions, use of scholarly, empirical resources, and stimulating thoughts and/or probes.
Points Range:
6.4 (16%) - 7.16 (17.9%)
Student interacts
moderately
with peers. The feedback postings and responses to questions are good, but may not fully contribute to the quality of interaction by offering constructive critique, suggestions, in-depth questions, use of scholarly, empirical resources, and stimulating thoughts and/or probes.
Points Range:
5.6 (14%) - 6.36 (15.9%)
Student interacts
minimally
with peers .
9 AssignmentAssignment Typologies of Sexual AssaultsT.docxpriestmanmable
9 Assignment
Assignment: Typologies of Sexual Assaults
There are many different types of sexual assaults and many different types of offenders. Although they are different, they can be classified in order to create a common language between the criminal justice field and the mental health field. This in turn will enable more accurate research, predict future offenses, and assist in the prosecution and rehabilitation of the offenders.
In this Assignment, you compare different typologies of sexual offenders to determine the differences in motivation, expression of aggression, and underlining personality structure. You also determine the best way to interview each typology of sexual offenders.
To prepare for this Assignment:
Review the Learning Resources.
Select two typologies of sexual offenders listed in the resources.
By Day 7
In a 3- to 5- page paper:
Compare the two typologies of sexual offenders you selected by explaining the following:
The motivational differences between the two typologies
The expression of aggression in the two typologies
The differences in the underlining personality structure of the two typologies
Excellent - above expectations
Points Range:
47.25 (63%) - 52.5 (70%)
Paper demonstrates an
excellent
understanding of
all
of the concepts and key points presented in the text/s and Learning Resources. Paper provides significant detail including multiple relevant examples, evidence from the readings and other sources, and discerning ideas.
Points Range:
42 (56%) - 47.2 (62.93%)
Paper demonstrates a
good
understanding of
most
of the concepts and key points presented in the text/s and Learning Resources. Paper includes moderate detail, evidence from the readings, and discerning ideas.
Points Range:
36.75 (49%) - 41.95 (55.93%)
Paper demonstrates a
fair
understanding of the concepts and key points as presented in the text/s and Learning Resources. Paper may be
lacking
in detail and specificity and/or may not include sufficient pertinent examples or provide sufficient evidence from the readings.
Points Range:
0 (0%) - 36.7 (48.93%)
Paper demonstrates poor understanding of the concepts and key points of the text/s and Learning Resources. Paper is missing detail and specificity and/or does not include any pertinent examples or provide sufficient evidence from the readings.
Writing
Points Range:
20.25 (27%) - 22.5 (30%)
Paper is
well
organized, uses scholarly tone, follows APA style, uses original writing and proper paraphrasing, contains very few or no writing and/or spelling errors, and is
fully
consistent with graduate level writing style. Paper contains
multiple
, appropriate and exemplary sources expected/required for the assignment.
.
The document discusses a new guidance published by Public Health England to enhance the public health role of nurses and midwives. It aims to make every contact with patients by nurses and midwives count towards health promotion and disease prevention. The guidance prioritizes areas like reducing preventable deaths, tackling long-term conditions, and improving children's health. It also emphasizes place-based public health approaches. The document outlines specific actions nurses and midwives can take to contribute to public health at the individual, community and population levels, such as providing health advice to patients and engaging with communities.
9 Augustine Confessions (selections) Augustine of Hi.docxpriestmanmable
9 Augustine
Confessions
(selections)
Augustine of Hippo wrote his Confessions between 397 -400 CE. In it he gives an
autobiographical account of his whole life up through his conversion to Christianity.
In Book 2, excerpted here, he thinks over the passions and temptations of his youth,
especially during a period where he had to come home from where he was studying
and return to living with his parents. His mother Monica was already Christian and
his father was considering it. They want him to be academically successful and
become a great orator.
From Augustine, Confessions. Translated by Caroline J-B Hammond. Loeb Classical
Library Harvard University Press 2014
(Links to an external site.)
.
1. (1) I wish to put on record the disgusting deeds in which I engaged, and
the corrupting effect of sensual experience on my soul, not because I love
them, but so that I may love you, my God. I do this because of my love for
your love, to the end that—as I recall my wicked, wicked ways in the
bitterness of recollection—you may grow even sweeter to me. For you are
a sweetness which does not deceive, a sweetness which brings happiness
and peace, pulling me back together from the disintegration in which I was
being shattered and torn apart, when I turned away from you who are unity
https://www-loebclassics-com.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/view/augustine-confessions/2014/pb_LCL026.61.xml
https://www-loebclassics-com.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/view/augustine-confessions/2014/pb_LCL026.61.xml
https://www-loebclassics-com.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/view/augustine-confessions/2014/pb_LCL026.61.xml
https://www-loebclassics-com.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/view/augustine-confessions/2014/pb_LCL026.61.xml
https://www-loebclassics-com.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/view/augustine-confessions/2014/pb_LCL026.61.xml
and dispersed into the multiplicity that is oblivion. For there was a time
during my adolescence when I burned to have my fill of hell. I ran wild and
reckless in all manner of shady liaisons, and my outward appearance
deteriorated, and I degenerated before your eyes as I went on pleasing
myself and desiring to appear pleasing in human sight.
2. (2) What was it that used to delight me, if not loving and being loved? But
there was no boundary maintained between one mind and another, and
reaching only as far as the clear confines of friendship. Instead the slime
of fleshly desire and the spurts of adolescence belched out their fumes,
and these clouded and obscured my heart, so that it was impossible to
distinguish the purity of love from the darkness of lust. Both of them
together seethed in me, dragging my immaturity over the heights of bodily
desire, and plunging me down into a whirlpool of sin. Your anger grew
strong against me, but I was unaware of it. I had been deafened by the
loud grinding of the chain of my mortality, the punishment for the pride of
my soul, and I went even further away from yo.
8.3 Intercultural Communication
Learning Objectives
1. Define intercultural communication.
2. List and summarize the six dialectics of intercultural communication.
3. Discuss how intercultural communication affects interpersonal relationships.
It is through intercultural communication that we come to create, understand, and transform culture and identity. Intercultural communication is communication between people with differing cultural identities. One reason we should study intercultural communication is to foster greater self-awareness (Martin & Nakayama, 2010). Our thought process regarding culture is often “other focused,” meaning that the culture of the other person or group is what stands out in our perception. However, the old adage “know thyself” is appropriate, as we become more aware of our own culture by better understanding other cultures and perspectives. Intercultural communication can allow us to step outside of our comfortable, usual frame of reference and see our culture through a different lens. Additionally, as we become more self-aware, we may also become more ethical communicators as we challenge our ethnocentrism, or our tendency to view our own culture as superior to other cultures.
As was noted earlier, difference matters, and studying intercultural communication can help us better negotiate our changing world. Changing economies and technologies intersect with culture in meaningful ways (Martin & Nakayama). As was noted earlier, technology has created for some a global village where vast distances are now much shorter due to new technology that make travel and communication more accessible and convenient (McLuhan, 1967). However, as the following “Getting Plugged In” box indicates, there is also a digital divide, which refers to the unequal access to technology and related skills that exists in much of the world. People in most fields will be more successful if they are prepared to work in a globalized world. Obviously, the global market sets up the need to have intercultural competence for employees who travel between locations of a multinational corporation. Perhaps less obvious may be the need for teachers to work with students who do not speak English as their first language and for police officers, lawyers, managers, and medical personnel to be able to work with people who have various cultural identities.
“Getting Plugged In”
The Digital Divide
Many people who are now college age struggle to imagine a time without cell phones and the Internet. As “digital natives” it is probably also surprising to realize the number of people who do not have access to certain technologies. The digital divide was a term that initially referred to gaps in access to computers. The term expanded to include access to the Internet since it exploded onto the technology scene and is now connected to virtually all computing (van Deursen & van Dijk, 2010). Approximately two billion people around the world now access the Internet regularl.
8413 906 AMLife in a Toxic Country - NYTimes.comPage 1 .docxpriestmanmable
8/4/13 9:06 AMLife in a Toxic Country - NYTimes.com
Page 1 of 4http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/04/sunday-review/life-in-a-toxic-country.html?ref=world&pagewanted=all&pagewanted=print
August 3, 2013
Life in a Toxic Country
By EDWARD WONG
BEIJING — I RECENTLY found myself hauling a bag filled with 12 boxes of milk powder and a
cardboard container with two sets of air filters through San Francisco International Airport. I was
heading to my home in Beijing at the end of a work trip, bringing back what have become two of
the most sought-after items among parents here, and which were desperately needed in my own
household.
China is the world’s second largest economy, but the enormous costs of its growth are becoming
apparent. Residents of its boom cities and a growing number of rural regions question the safety of
the air they breathe, the water they drink and the food they eat. It is as if they were living in the
Chinese equivalent of the Chernobyl or Fukushima nuclear disaster areas.
Before this assignment, I spent three and a half years reporting in Iraq, where foreign
correspondents talked endlessly of the variety of ways in which one could die — car bombs,
firefights, being abducted and then beheaded. I survived those threats, only now to find myself
wondering: Is China doing irreparable harm to me and my family?
The environmental hazards here are legion, and the consequences might not manifest themselves
for years or even decades. The risks are magnified for young children. Expatriate workers
confronted with the decision of whether to live in Beijing weigh these factors, perhaps more than at
any time in recent decades. But for now, a correspondent’s job in China is still rewarding, and so I
am toughing it out a while longer. So is my wife, Tini, who has worked for more than a dozen years
as a journalist in Asia and has studied Chinese. That means we are subjecting our 9-month-old
daughter to the same risks that are striking fear into residents of cities across northern China, and
grappling with the guilt of doing so.
Like them, we take precautions. Here in Beijing, high-tech air purifiers are as coveted as luxury
sedans. Soon after I was posted to Beijing, in 2008, I set up a couple of European-made air
purifiers used by previous correspondents. In early April, I took out one of the filters for the first
time to check it: the layer of dust was as thick as moss on a forest floor. It nauseated me. I ordered
two new sets of filters to be picked up in San Francisco; those products are much cheaper in the
United States. My colleague Amy told me that during the Lunar New Year in February, a family
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/edward_wong/index.html
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/china/index.html?inline=nyt-geo
8/4/13 9:06 AMLife in a Toxic Country - NYTimes.com
Page 2 of 4http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/04/sunday-review/life-in-a-toxic-country..
8. A 2 x 2 Experimental Design - Quality and Economy (x1 and x2.docxpriestmanmable
8. A 2 x 2 Experimental Design: - Quality and Economy (x1 and x2 as independent variables)
Dr. Boonghee Yoo
[email protected]
RMI Distinguished Professor in Business and
Professor of Marketing & International Business
Make changes on the names, labels, and measure on the variable view.
Check the measure.
Have the same keys between “Name” and “Label.”
Run factor analysis for ys (dependent variables).
Select “Principal axis factoring” from “Extraction.”
The two-factor solution seems the best as (1) they are over one eigenvalue each and (2) the variance explained for is over 60%.
The new eigenvalues after the rotation.
The rotated factor matrix is clear.
But note that y3 and y1 are collapsed into one factor.
If not you should rerun factor analysis after removing the most problematic item one at a time.
Repeat this procedure until the rotated factor pattern has
(1) no cross-loading,
(2) no weak factor loading (< 0.5), and
(3) an adequate number of items (not more than 5 items per factor).
If a clear factor pattern is obtained, name the factors.
Attitude and purchase intention (y3 and y1)
Boycotting intention (y2)
Compute the reliability of the items of each factor
Make sure all responses were used.
Cronbach’s a (= Reliability a) must be greater than 0.70. Then, you can create the composite variable out of the member items.
Means and STDs must be similar among the items.
No a here should be greater than Cronbach’s a. If not, you should delete such item(s) to increase a.
Create the composite variable for each factor.
BI = mean (y2_1,y2_2,y2_3)
“PI” will be added to the data.
Go to the Variable View and change its “Name” and “Label.”
8. A 2 x 2 Experimental Design: - Quality and Economy (x1 and x2 as independent variables)
Dr. Boonghee Yoo
[email protected]
RMI Distinguished Professor in Business and
Professor of Marketing & International Business
BLOCK 1. Title and introductory paragraph.
Title and introductory paragraph
Plus, background questions
BLOCK 2 to 5. Show one of four treatments randomly.
x1(hi), x2 (hi)
x1 (hi), x2 (low)
x1 (low), x2 (hi)
x1 (low), x2 (low)
BLOCK 6. Questions.
Manipulation check questions (multi-item scales)
y1, y2, and y3 (multi-item scales)
Socio-demographic questions
Write “Thank you for participation.”
The questionnaire (6 blocks)
A 2x2 between-sample design: SQ (Service quality and ECON (Contribution to local economy)
Each of the four BLOCKs consist of:
The instruction: e.g., “Please read the following description of company ABC carefully.”
The scenario: An image file or written statement
(No questions inside the scenario blocks)
Qualtrics Survey Flow (6 blocks)
Manipulation check questions y1, y2, …, yn
Questions to verify that subjects were manipulated as intended. For example, if the stimulus is dollar-amount price, the manipulation check.
800 Words 42-year-old man presents to ED with 2-day history .docxpriestmanmable
800 Words
42-year-old man presents to ED with 2-day history of dysuria, low back pain, inability to fully empty his bladder, severe perineal pain along with fevers and chills. He says the pain is worse when he stands up and is somewhat relieved when he lies down. Vital signs T 104.0 F, pulse 138, respirations 24. PaO2 96% on room air. Digital rectal exam (DRE) reveals the prostate to be enlarged, extremely tender, swollen, and warm to touch.
In your Case Study Analysis related to the scenario provided, explain the following:
The factors that affect fertility (STDs).
Why inflammatory markers rise in STD/PID.
Why prostatitis and infection happen. Also explain the causes of systemic reaction.
Why a patient would need a splenectomy after a diagnosis of ITP.
Anemia and the different kinds of anemia (i.e., micro, and macrocytic).
.
8.1 What Is Corporate StrategyLO 8-1Define corporate strategy.docxpriestmanmable
8.1 What Is Corporate Strategy?
LO 8-1
Define corporate strategy and describe the three dimensions along which it is assessed.
Strategy formulation centers around the key questions of where and how to compete. Business strategy concerns the question of how to compete in a single product market. As discussed in Chapter 6, the two generic business strategies that firms can follow to pursue their quest for competitive advantage are to increase differentiation (while containing cost) or lower costs (while maintaining differentiation). If trade-offs can be reconciled, some firms might be able to pursue a blue ocean strategy by increasing differentiation and lowering costs. As firms grow, they are frequently expanding their business activities through seeking new markets both by offering new products and services and by competing in different geographies. Strategic leaders must formulate a corporate strategy to guide continued growth. To gain and sustain competitive advantage, therefore, any corporate strategy must align with and strengthen a firm’s business strategy, whether it is a differentiation, cost-leadership, or blue ocean strategy.
Corporate strategy comprises the decisions that leaders make and the goal-directed actions they take in the quest for competitive advantage in several industries and markets simultaneously.3 It provides answers to the key question of where to compete. Corporate strategy determines the boundaries of the firm along three dimensions: vertical integration along the industry value chain, diversification of products and services, and geographic scope (regional, national, or global markets). Strategic leaders must determine corporate strategy along the three dimensions:
1. Vertical integration: In what stages of the industry value chain should the company participate? The industry value chain describes the transformation of raw materials into finished goods and services along distinct vertical stages.
2. Diversification: What range of products and services should the company offer?
3. Geographic scope: Where should the company compete geographically in terms of regional, national, or international markets?
In most cases, underlying these three questions is an implicit desire for growth. The need for growth is sometimes taken so much for granted that not every manager understands all the reasons behind it. A clear understanding will help strategic leaders to pursue growth for the right reasons and make better decisions for the firm and its stakeholders.
WHY FIRMS NEED TO GROW
LO 8-2
Explain why firms need to grow, and evaluate different growth motives.
Several reasons explain why firms need to grow. These can be summarized as follows:
1. Increase profits.
2. Lower costs.
3. Increase market power.
4. Reduce risk.
5. Motivate management.
Let’s look at each reason in turn.
INCREASE PROFITS
Profitable growth allows businesses to provide a higher return for their shareholders, or owners, if privately held. For publicly trade.
8.0 RESEARCH METHODS These guidelines address postgr.docxpriestmanmable
8.0 RESEARCH METHODS
These guidelines address postgraduate students who have completed course
requirements and assumed to have sufficient background experience of high-level
engagement activities like recognizing, relating, applying, generating, reflecting and
theorizing issues. It is an ultimate period in our academic life when we feel confident
at embarking on independent research.
It cannot be overemphasized that we must enjoy the experience of research process
and not look at it as an academic chore.
To enable such a desired behaviour, these guidelines consider the research process
in terms of the skills and knowledge needed to develop independent and critical
styles of thinking in order to evaluate and use research as well as to conduct fresh
research.
The guidelines should be viewed as briefs which the Research Supervisors are expected
to exemplify based on their own experience as well as expertise.
8.1 Chapter 1 - Introduction
INTRODUCE the subject or problem to be studied. This might require the
identification of key managerial concerns, theories, laws and governmental rulings,
critical incidents or social changes, and current environmental issues, that make the
subject critical, relevant and worthy of managerial or research attention.
• To inform the Reader (stylistically - forthright, direct, and brief / concise),
• The first sentence should begin with `This Study was intended
to’….’ And immediately tell the Reader the nature of the study for the
reader's interest and desire to read on.
8.1.1 The Research Problem
What is the statement of the problem? The statement of the problem or problem
statement should follow logically from what has been set forth in the background of
the problem by defining the specific research need providing impetus for the
study, a need not met through previous research. Present a clear and precise
statement of the central question of research, formulated to address the need.
8.1.2 The Purpose of the Study
What is the purpose of the study? What are the RESEARCH QUESTION (S) of
the study? What are the specific objective (s) of the study? Define the specific
research objective (s) that would answer the research Question (s) of the study.
8.1.3 The Rationale of the Study:
1. Why in a general sense?
2. One or two brief references to previous research or theories critical in structuring
this study to support and understand the rationale.
3. The importance of the study for the reader to know, to fully appreciate the need
for the study - and its significance.
4. Own professional experience that stimulated the study or aroused interest in the
area of research.
5. The Need for the Study - will deal with valid questions or professional concerns
to provide data leading to an answer - reference to literature helpful and
appropriate.
8.1.4 The Significance of the Study:
1. Clearly .
95People of AppalachianHeritageChapter 5KATHLEEN.docxpriestmanmable
95
People of Appalachian
Heritage
Chapter 5
KATHLEEN W. HUTTLINGER and LARRY D. PURNELL
Overview, Inhabited Localities,
and Topography
OVERVIEW
Appalachia consists of that large geographic expanse in
the eastern United States that is associated with the
Appalachian mountain system, a 200,000-square-mile
region that extends from the northeastern United States
in southern New York to northern Mississippi. It includes
all of West Virginia and parts of Alabama, Georgia,
Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, New York, North
Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee,
and Virginia. This very rural area is characterized by a
rolling topography with very rugged ridges and hilltops,
some extending over 4000 feet high, with remote valleys
between them. The surrounding valleys are often 2000
feet or more in elevation and give one a sense of isolation,
peacefulness, and separateness from the lower and more
heavily traveled urban areas. This isolation and rough
topography have contributed to the development of
secluded communities in the hills and natural hollows or
narrow valleys where people, over time, have developed a
strong sense of independence and family cohesiveness.
These same isolated valleys and rugged mountains pre-
sent many transportation problems for those who do not
have access to cars or trucks. Very limited public trans-
portation is available only in the larger urbanized areas.
Even though the Appalachian region includes several
large cities, many people live in small settlements and in
inaccessible hollows or “hollers” (Huttlinger, Schaller-
Ayers, & Lawson, 2004a). The rugged location of many
communities in Appalachia results in a population that is
often isolated from the mainstream of health-care ser-
vices. In some areas of Appalachia, substandard secondary
and tertiary roads, as well as limited public bus, rail, and
airport facilities, prevent easy access to the area (Fig. 5–1).
Difficulty in accessing the area is partially responsible for
continued geographic and sociocultural isolation. The
rugged terrain can significantly delay ambulance response
time and is a deterrent to people who need health care
when their health condition is severe. This is one area in
which telehealth innovations can and often do provide
needed services.
Many of the approximately 24 million people who live
in Appalachia can trace their family roots back 150 or
more years, and it is common to find whole communities
comprising extended, related families. The cultural her-
itage of the region is rich and reflected in their distinctive
music, art, and literature. Even though family roots are
strong, many of the region’s younger residents have left
the area to pursue job opportunities in the larger urban
cities of the north. The remaining, older population
reflects a group that often has less than a high-school edu-
cation, is frequently unemployed, may be on welfare
and/or disability, and is regularly uninsured (20.4 per-
cent) (Virginia He.
8-10 slide Powerpoint The example company is Tesla.Instructions.docxpriestmanmable
8-10 slide Powerpoint The example company is Tesla.
Instructions
As the organization’s top leader, you are responsible for communicating the organization’s strategies in a way that makes the employees understand the role that they play in helping to achieve the organization’s strategies. Design a presentation that explains the following:
The company is Tesla
1. Your Organization's Mission and Vision
2. Your organization’s overall strategies and how they align with the Mission and Vision
3. At least five of your organization’ strategic SMART goals that align with the overall organizational strategy
4. At least three different departments’ specific roles in helping to achieve those strategic SMART goals
5. This can be a PowerPoint presentation with a voice-over or it can be a video presentation.
Length: 8 – 10 slides, not including title and reference slide.
Notes Length: 200-250 words for each slide.
References: Include a minimum of five scholarly resources.
I will do the voice over. I do not need a separate document of speaker notes as long as the PowerPoint has the requested 200-250 words for each slide
.
8Network Security April 2020FEATUREAre your IT staf.docxpriestmanmable
8
Network Security April 2020
FEATURE
Are your IT staff ready
for the pandemic-driven
insider threat? Phil Chapman
Obviously the threat to human life is
the top concern for everyone at this
moment. But businesses are also starting
to suffer as productivity slips globally
and the workforce itself is squeezed.
The UK Government’s March budget
did announce some measures, especially
for small and medium-size enterprises
(SMEs), that will make this period
slightly less painful for organisations.
However, as is apparent from the tank-
ing stock market (the FTSE 100 has
hit levels not seen since June 2012) the
economy and pretty much all businesses
in the country (unless you produce hand
sanitiser) are going to suffer. There is no
time like now for the UK to embrace
its mantra of ‘keep calm and carry on’
because that is what we must do if we’re
going to keep business flowing.
For the IT department at large there is
lots of urgent work to do to ensure that
the business is prepared to keep running
smoothly even if people are having to
work remotely. The task at hand for cyber
security professionals is arguably even
larger as Covid-19 is seeing cyber criminals
capitalising on the fact that the insider
threat is worse than ever, with more people
working remotely from personal devices
than many IT and cyber security teams
have likely ever prepared for.
This article will argue that the cyber
security workforce, which is already suf-
fering a digital skills crisis, may also be
lacking the adequate soft skills required
to effectively tackle the insider threat
that has been exacerbated by the pan-
demic. It will first examine the insider
threat, and why this has become so
much more insidious because of Covid-
19. It will then look into the essential
soft skills required to tackle this threat,
before examining how organisations can
effectively implement an apprentice-
ship strategy that generates professionals
with both hard and soft skills, includ-
ing advice from the CISO of globally
respected law firm Pinsent Masons, who
will provide insight into how he is mak-
ing his strategy work. It will conclude
that many of these issues could be solved
if the industry didn’t rely so heavily on
recruiting graduates and rather looked
towards hiring apprentices.
The insider threat
In the best of times, every cyber-pro-
fessional knows that the biggest threat
to an organisation’s IT infrastructure
is people, both malicious actors and
– much more often – employees and
partners making mistakes. The problem
is that people lack cyber knowledge and
so commit careless actions – for exam-
ple, forwarding sensitive information to
the wrong recipient over email or plug-
ging rogue USBs into their device (yes,
that still happens). Cyber criminals
capitalise on this ignorance by utilising
social engineering tactics ranging from
the painfully simple, like fake emails
from Amazon, to the very sophisticated,
such as.
Main Java[All of the Base Concepts}.docxadhitya5119
This is part 1 of my Java Learning Journey. This Contains Custom methods, classes, constructors, packages, multithreading , try- catch block, finally block and more.
it describes the bony anatomy including the femoral head , acetabulum, labrum . also discusses the capsule , ligaments . muscle that act on the hip joint and the range of motion are outlined. factors affecting hip joint stability and weight transmission through the joint are summarized.
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation resultsKrassimira Luka
The temple and the sanctuary around were dedicated to Asklepios Zmidrenus. This name has been known since 1875 when an inscription dedicated to him was discovered in Rome. The inscription is dated in 227 AD and was left by soldiers originating from the city of Philippopolis (modern Plovdiv).
Strategies for Effective Upskilling is a presentation by Chinwendu Peace in a Your Skill Boost Masterclass organisation by the Excellence Foundation for South Sudan on 08th and 09th June 2024 from 1 PM to 3 PM on each day.
বাংলাদেশের অর্থনৈতিক সমীক্ষা ২০২৪ [Bangladesh Economic Review 2024 Bangla.pdf] কম্পিউটার , ট্যাব ও স্মার্ট ফোন ভার্সন সহ সম্পূর্ণ বাংলা ই-বুক বা pdf বই " সুচিপত্র ...বুকমার্ক মেনু 🔖 ও হাইপার লিংক মেনু 📝👆 যুক্ত ..
আমাদের সবার জন্য খুব খুব গুরুত্বপূর্ণ একটি বই ..বিসিএস, ব্যাংক, ইউনিভার্সিটি ভর্তি ও যে কোন প্রতিযোগিতা মূলক পরীক্ষার জন্য এর খুব ইম্পরট্যান্ট একটি বিষয় ...তাছাড়া বাংলাদেশের সাম্প্রতিক যে কোন ডাটা বা তথ্য এই বইতে পাবেন ...
তাই একজন নাগরিক হিসাবে এই তথ্য গুলো আপনার জানা প্রয়োজন ...।
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Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...PsychoTech Services
A proprietary approach developed by bringing together the best of learning theories from Psychology, design principles from the world of visualization, and pedagogical methods from over a decade of training experience, that enables you to: Learn better, faster!
Communicating effectively and consistently with students can help them feel at ease during their learning experience and provide the instructor with a communication trail to track the course's progress. This workshop will take you through constructing an engaging course container to facilitate effective communication.
58 Mission Command MILITARY REVIEWMajor Blair S. William.docx
1. Major Blair S. Williams, U.S. Army, is
a Joint planner at U.S. Strategic Com-
mand. He holds a B.S. from the U.S.
Military Academy (USMA), an M.S.
from the University of Missouri, and a
Ph.D. from Harvard University. He has
served in a variety of command and
staff positions, including deployments
to Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as an
assignment as an assistant professor
of economics in the Department of
Social Sciences at USMA.
_____________
PHOTO: U.S. Army SSG Clarence
Washington, Provincial Reconstruc-
tion Team Zabul security forces squad
leader, takes accountability after an
indirect fire attack in Qalat City, Zabul
Province, Afghanistan, 27 July 2010.
(U.S. Air Force photo/SrA Nathanael
Callon)
If we now consider briefly the subjective nature of war—the
means by which war
has to be fought—it will look more than ever like a gamble . . .
From the very
start there is an interplay of possibilities, probabilities, good
luck, and bad that
2. weaves its way throughout the length and breadth of the
tapestry. In the whole
range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of
cards.
—Clausewitz, On War. 1
CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ’S metaphoric description of the
condition of war is as accurate today as it was when he wrote it
in the early
19th century. The Army faces an operating environment
characterized by
volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.2 Military
professionals
struggle to make sense of this paradoxical and chaotic setting.
Succeed-
ing in this environment requires an emergent style of decision
making,
where practitioners are willing to embrace improvisation and
reflection.3
The theory of reflection-in-action requires practitioners to
question the
structure of assumptions within their professional military
knowledge.4
For commanders and staff officers to willingly try new
approaches and
experiment on the spot in response to surprises, they must
critically exam-
ine the heuristics (or “rules of thumb”) by which they make
decisions and
understand how they may lead to potential bias. The
institutional nature of
the military decision making process (MDMP), our
organizational culture,
and our individual mental processes in how we make decisions
shape these
3. heuristics and their accompanying biases.
The theory of reflection-in-action and its implications for
decision
making may sit uneasily with many military professionals. Our
established
doctrine for decision making is the MDMP. The process
assumes objec-
tive rationality and is based on a linear, step-based model that
generates
a specific course of action and is useful for the examination of
problems
that exhibit stability and are underpinned by assumptions of
“technical-
rationality.”5 The Army values MDMP as the sanctioned
approach for
solving problems and making decisions. This stolid template is
comforting;
we are familiar with it. However, what do we do when our
enemy does
not conform to our assumptions embedded in the process? We
discovered
early in Iraq that our opponents fought differently than we
expected. As
Heuristics and Biases in
Military Decision Making
Major Blair S. Williams, U.S. Army
The author is indebted to
COL(R) Christopher Paparone,
MAJ Rob Meine, MAJ Mike Shek-
leton, and COL(R) Doug Williams
for reviewing this article and
providing insightful suggestions
4. for its improvement.
Originally published in the
Sep-Oct 2010 issue of MR.
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Highlight
59MILITARY REVIE
S P E C I A L E D I T I O N
a result, we suffered tremendous organizational
distress as we struggled for answers to the insur-
gency in Iraq. We were trapped in a mental cave
of our own making and were unable to escape our
preconceived notions of military operations and
decision making.6
Fortunately, some have come to see the short-
5. comings of the classical MDMP process. It is ill-
suited for the analysis of problems exhibiting high
volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
The Army’s nascent answer, called “Design,”
looks promising. As outlined in the new version
of FM 5-0, Operations Process, Chapter 3, Design
is defined as “a methodology for applying critical
and creative thinking to understand, visualize, and
describe complex, ill-structured problems and
develop approaches to solve them.”7 Instead of a
universal process to solve all types of problems
(MDMP), the Design approach acknowledges
that military commanders must first appreciate
the situation and recognize that any solution will
be unique.8 With Design, the most important task
is framing a problem and then reframing it when
conditions change.9
Framing involves improvisation and on-the-
spot experimentation, especially when we face
time and space constraints in our operating envi-
ronment. FM 6-0, Mission Command, Chapter 6,
states, “Methods for making adjustment decisions
fall along a continuum from analytical to intui-
tive . . . As underlying factors push the method
further to the intuitive side of the continuum,
at some point the [planning] methodology no
longer applies.”10 In the course of intuitive deci-
sion making, we use mental heuristics to quickly
reduce complexity. The use of these heuristics
exposes us to cognitive biases, so it is important
to ask a number of questions.11 What heuristics
do we use to reduce the high volatility, uncer-
tainty, complexity, and ambiguity, and how do
these heuristics introduce inherent bias into our
6. decision making? How do these biases affect
our probabilistic assessments of future events?
Once apprised of the hazards rising from these
heuristic tools, how do we improve our deci-
sions? This article explores these questions
and their implications for the future of military
decision making.
Behavioral Economics
The examination of heuristics and biases began
with the groundbreaking work of Nobel Laureate
Daniel Kahneman and Professor Amos Tversky.
Dissatisfied with the discrepancies of classical
economics in explaining human decision making,
Kahneman and Tversky developed the initial
tenets of a discipline now widely known as behav-
ioral economics.12 In contrast to preexisting classi-
cal models (such as expected utility theory) which
sought to describe human behavior as a rational
maximization of cost-benefit decisions, Kahne-
man and Tversky provided a simple framework
of observed human behavior based upon choices
under uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. They pro-
posed that when facing numerous sensory inputs,
human beings reduce complexity via the use of
heuristics. In the course of these mental processes
of simplifying an otherwise overwhelming amount
of information, we regularly inject cognitive bias.
Cognitive bias comes from the unconscious errors
generated by our mental simplification methods.
It is important to note that the use of a heuristic
does not generate bias every time. We are simply
more prone to induce error. Additionally, this
bias is not cultural or ideological bias—both of
which are semi-conscious processes.13 Kahne-
7. man and Tversky’s identified phenomena have
withstood numerous experimental and real-world
tests. They are considered robust, consistent, and
predictable.14 In this article, we will survey three
important heuristics to military decision making:
availability, representativeness, and anchoring.15
In the course of intuitive decision making, we use mental heu-
ristics to quickly reduce complexity. The use of these heuristics
exposes us to cognitive biases…
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Availability
When faced with new circumstances, people
naturally compare them to similar situations resid-
ing in their memory.16 These situations often “come
to one’s mind” automatically. These past occur-
rences are available for use, and generally, they
are adequate for us to make sense of new situations
encountered in routine life. However, they rarely are
the product of thoughtful deliberation, especially in
a time-constrained environment. These available
recollections have been unconsciously predeter-
mined by the circumstances we experienced when
we made them. These past images of like circum-
stances affect our judgment when assessing risk
and/or the probability of future events. Ultimately,
four biases arise from the availability heuristic:
retrievability bias, search set bias, imaginability
bias, and illusory correlation.
Retrievability bias. The frequency of similar
events in our past reinforces preconceived notions
of comparable situations occurring in the future.
For example, a soldier will assess his risk of being
wounded or killed in combat based on its frequency
9. of occurrence among his buddies. Likewise, an offi-
cer may assess his probability of promotion based
on the past promotion rates of peers. Availability
of these frequent occurrences helps us to quickly
judge the subjective probability of future events;
however, availability is also affected by other fac-
tors such as salience and vividness of memory. For
example, the subjective probability assessment of
future improvised explosive device (IED) attacks
will most likely be higher from a lieutenant who
witnessed such attacks than one who read about
them in situation reports. Bias in their assessment
occurs because the actual probability of future
attacks is not related to the personal experience of
either officer.17
Similarly, consistent fixation on a previous event
or series of events may also increase availability.18
Naval officers most likely experienced a temporary
rise in their subjective assessment of the risk of
ship collision after the highly publicized reports of
the collision between the USS Hartford and USS
New Orleans.19 The true probability of a future
collision is no more likely than it was prior to the
U.S. Marine Corps SSgt Tommy Webb of Headquarters
Battalion, Marine Forces Reserve, teaches a class on grid coor-
dinates and plotting points on a map, 22 February 2010. The
course emphasizes combat conditioning, decision making,
critical thinking skills, military traditions, and military drill.
These professional courses must focus on critical reflection
when examining new problems in order to avoid bias.
U
S
11. e.
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collision, yet organizational efforts to avoid colli-
sions increased due to the subjective impression
that collisions were now somehow more likely.
People exposed to the outcome of a probabilistic
event give a much higher post-event subjective
probability than those not exposed to the outcome.
This is called hindsight bias.
12. When combining hindsight bias and retrievabil-
ity biases, we potentially fail to guard against an
event popularized euphemistically as a black swan.
Nassim Taleb describes black swans as historical
events that surprised humanity because they were
thought of as non-existent or exceedingly rare. We
assume all swans are white; they are in our avail-
able memory.20 For example, in hindsight the 11
September 2001 terrorist attacks look completely
conceivable; therefore, we hold the various intel-
ligence agencies of the U.S. government publicly
accountable for something that was not even con-
sidered plausible before the event. Furthermore,
mentally available disasters set an upper bound
on our perceived risk. Many of our precautionary
homeland security measures are based on stopping
another 9/11 type attack, when in fact the next
attempt may take on a completely different context
that we cannot imagine (because our searches for
past experiences are limited).21
Availability played a role in the current global
financial crisis. Our collective memories contained
two decades of stable market conditions. The
inability to conceive a major economic downturn
and the flawed assumption that systemic risk to the
national real estate market was minuscule contrib-
uted to creating a black swan event.22 Taleb wrote
the following passage before the collapse of the
asset-backed securities market (a major element of
the current economic recession):
Globalization creates interlocking fragil-
ity, while reducing volatility and giving the
appearance of stability. In other words, it
13. creates devastating Black Swans. We have
never lived before under the threat of a
global collapse. Financial institutions have
been merging into a smaller number of very
large banks. Almost all banks are interre-
lated. So the financial ecology is swelling
into gigantic, incestuous banks—when one
fails, they all fail. The increased concentra-
tion among banks seems to have the effect
of making financial crises less likely, but
when they happen they are more global in
scale and hit us very hard.23
Given the possibility of black swans, we should
constantly question our available memories when
faced with new situations. Are these memories
leading us astray? Are they making our decisions
more or less risky? Are our enemies exploiting this
phenomenon? Military planners have done so in the
past, seeking the advantage of surprise.
For example, the British were masters at exploit-
ing retrievability biases during World War II. They
employed the COLLECT plan in North Africa
in 1941 to obfuscate the exact timing of General
Auchinleck’s offensive (Operation Crusader)
against Rommel’s forces in Libya.24 Via official,
unofficial, and false channels, the British repeatedly
signaled specific dates of the commencement of the
operation, only to rescind these orders for plausible
reasons. These artificial reasons included the inabil-
ity to quickly move forces from Syria to take part
in the operation to the failure of logistics ships to
arrive in Egypt. Planners wanted to lull Rommel
into expecting the repeated pattern of preparation
14. and cancellation so that when the actual operation
began, his memory would retrieve the repeated
pattern. The plan worked. The British achieved
operational deception. They surprised Rommel and
after 19 days of fighting ultimately succeeded in
breaking the siege at Tobruk. The repetitive nature
of orders and their cancellation demonstrates the
power of availability on human decision making.25
Search Set Bias. As we face uncertainty in piecing
together patterns of enemy activity, the effectiveness
of our patterns of information retrieval constrain our
ability to coherently create a holistic appreciation of
the situation. These patterns are called our search
set. A simple example of search set is the Mayzner-
Tresselt experiment, in which subjects were told to
randomly select words longer than three letters from
memory. Experimenters asked if the words more
likely had the letter R in the first position or third posi-
tion. Furthermore, they asked subjects to estimate
the ratio of these two positions for the given letter.
They also asked about K, L, N, and V. The subjects
overwhelmingly selected the first position for each
letter given over the third position, and the median
subjective ratio for the first position was 2:1.26 In
fact, the aforementioned letters appear with far more
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frequency in the third position. This experiment
highlighted the difficulty of modifying established
search sets. When we wish to find a word in the
dictionary, we look it up by its first letter, not its
third. Our available search sets are constructed in
unique patterns that are usually linear. We tend to
think in a series of steps versus in parallel streams.27
The effectiveness of our search set has a big
impact on operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. When
observing IED strikes and ambushes along routes,
we typically search those routes repeatedly for high-
value targets, yet our operations rarely find them.
Our search set is mentally constrained to the map
of strikes we observe on the charts in our operation
centers. We should look for our adversaries in areas
where there are no IEDs or ambushes. They may be
more likely to hide there. In another scenario, our
enemy takes note of our vehicle bumper numbers
and draws rough boundaries for our respective unit
areas of operation (AOs). They become used to
exploiting operations between unit boundaries and
their search set becomes fixed; therefore, we should
take advantage of their bias for established bound-
aries by irregularly adjusting our unit AOs. From
this example, we can see that to better structure our
thinking to escape search set bias, we should think
along a spectrum instead of categorically.28 (Using
both methods allows us to think in opposites which
may enhance our mental processing ability.)
16. Imaginability Bias. When confronted with a
situation without any available memory, we use
our imagination to make a subjective premonition.29
If we play up the dangerous elements of a future
mission, then naturally we may perceive our likeli-
hood of success as low. If we emphasize the easy
elements of a mission, we may assess our probabil-
ity of success too high. The ease or lack thereof in
imagining elements of the mission most likely does
not affect the mission’s true probability of success.
Our psychological pre-conditioning to risk (either
low or high) biases our assessment of the future.
Following the deadly experience of the U.S. Army
Rangers in Mogadishu in 1993, force protection
issues dominated future military deployments.
Deployments to Haiti and Bosnia were different
from Somalia, yet force protection issues were
assumed tantamount to mission success. We could
easily imagine dead American soldiers dragged
through the streets of Port-au-Prince or Tuzla. This
bias of imaginability concerning force protection
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1LT Matthew Hilderbrand, left, and SSG Kevin Sentieri, Delta
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of a weapons cache outside Combat Outpost Sangar in Zabul
Province, Afghanistan, 27 June 2010.
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actually hampered our ability to execute other
critical elements of the overall strategic mission.30
Biases of imaginability may potentially become
worse as we gain more situational awareness on
the battlefield. This seems counterintuitive, yet
we may find units with near-perfect information
becoming paralyzed on the battlefield. A unit
that knows an enemy position is just around the
corner may not engage it because the knowledge
of certain danger makes its members susceptible
18. to inflating risk beyond its true value. These
Soldiers may envision their own death or that of
their buddies if they attack this known position.
Units with imperfect information (but well-versed
in unit battle drills) may fare better because they
are not biased by their imagination. They will
react to contact as the situation develops.31 As an
organization, we desire our officers and NCOs to
show creativity in making decisions, yet we have
to exercise critical reflection lest our selective
imagination get the best of us.
Illusory Correlation. Correlation describes the
relationship between two events.32 People often
incorrectly conclude that two events are correlated
due to their mentally available associative bond
between similar events in the past.33 For example,
we may think that the traffic is only heavy when
we are running late, or our baby sleeps in only
on mornings that we have to get up early. These
memorable anecdotes form false associative bonds
in our memories. Consider the following example
regarding military deception operations from CIA
analyst Richard Heuer:
The hypothesis has been advanced that
deception is most likely when the stakes
are exceptionally high. If this hypothesis
is correct, analysts should be especially
alert for deception in such instances. One
can cite prominent examples to support the
hypothesis, such as Pearl Harbor, the Nor-
mandy landings, and the German invasion
of the Soviet Union. It seems as though
the hypothesis has considerable support,
19. given that it is so easy to recall examples
of high stakes situations…How common
is deception when the stakes are not high
. . . What are low-stakes situations in this
context? High stakes situations are defin-
able, but there is an almost infinite number
and variety of low-stakes situations . . .
we cannot demonstrate empirically that
one should be more alert to deception in
high-stakes situations, because there is
no basis for comparing high-stakes to low
stakes cases.34
Heuer highlights the potentially pernicious
effect illusory correlation can have on our decision
making. Exposure to salient experiences in the
past generates stereotypes that are difficult to con-
sciously break. In fact, we may fall victim to con-
firmation bias, where we actively pursue only the
information that will validate the link between the
two events. We may ignore or discard important
data that would weaken our illusory correlation.
In social settings (such as staff work), the effects
of illusory correlation and confirmation bias are
reinforcing factors to the concept of groupthink,
whereby members of a group minimize conflict
and reach consensus without critically examining
or testing ideas. Groupthink generates systematic
errors and poor decisions. Scholars have identified
a number of military disasters, such as the Bay of
Pigs fiasco and the Vietnam War, as examples of
the dangers of heuristics associated with group-
think.35 To avoid illusory correlation, we should
ask ourselves whether our intuitive or gut feeling
on the relationship between two events is correct
and why. This does not come naturally. It takes
20. a deliberative mental effort to ask ourselves a
contrary proposition to our assumed correlation.
Individually, we may be unable to overcome illu-
sory correlation. The solution potentially lies in
Exposure to salient experiences in the past generates
stereotypes
that are difficult to consciously break. In fact, we may fall
victim to
confirmation bias, where we actively pursue only the
information that
will validate the link between the two events.
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a collective staff process where we organize into
teams to evaluate competing hypotheses.36
Representativeness
Representativeness is a heuristic that people use
21. to assess the probability that an event, person, or
object falls into a larger category of events, people,
or things. In order to quickly categorize a new occur-
rence, we mentally examine it for characteristics of
the larger grouping of preexisting occurrences. If we
find it to “represent” the traits of the broader category,
we mentally place it into this class of occurrences.
This heuristic is a normal part of mental processing,
yet it is also prone to errors. Representativeness leads
to five potential biases: insensitivity to prior prob-
ability of outcomes, base-rate neglect, insensitivity
to sample size, misconceptions of chance, and failure
to identify regression to the mean.
Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes.
Consider the following description of a company-
grade Army officer:
He is a prudent, details-oriented person. He
meticulously follows rules and is very thrifty.
He dresses conservatively and drives a Ford
Focus.
Is this officer more likely to be an aviator or finance
officer? If you picked finance officer, then your ste-
reotype of the traits of a typical finance officer may
have fooled you into making the less likely answer.
You may even hold the stereotype that aviators are
hot-shot pilots, who fly by the seat of their pants. It
is common to view pilots as individuals who believe
rules are made to be broken, and money is made to
be spent on fast cars and hard partying. Given these
stereotypes, you chose unwisely because there are
statistically more aviators than finance officers
who fit the given description. As a branch, aviation
22. assesses approximately 20 times more officers than
finance each year. It is always important to under-
stand the size of the populations you are comparing
before making a decision. Stereotypes often arise
unconsciously; therefore, it is important to remain
on guard against their potential misleading effects.
Base-rate neglect. Consider the following prob-
lem given to cadets at West Point:
While on a platoon patrol, you observe a
man near a garbage pile on the side of a
major road. In recent IED attacks in the
area, the primary method of concealment
for the device is in the numerous piles
of garbage that lay festering in the street
(trash removal is effectively non-existent
due to insurgent attacks on any government
employee—including sanitation workers).
You immediately direct one of your squad
leaders to apprehend the man. Based on S2
reports, you know that 90 percent of the
population are innocent civilians, while
10 percent are insurgents. The battalion S3
recently provided information from detainee
operations training—your platoon correctly
identified one of two types of the population
75 percent of the time and incorrectly 25
percent of the time. You quickly interrogate
the man. He claims innocence, but acts sus-
piciously. There is no IED in the trash pile.
What is the probability that you detain the
man and that he turns out to be an insurgent
rather than a civilian?
23. Most cadets answered between 50 percent and 75
percent.37 This estimate is far too high. The actual
probability is 25 percent.38 The 75 percent detection
probability from the platoon’s training provides
available individuating information. Individuating
information allows the lieutenant to believe that he
President John F. Kennedy addresses the 2506 Cuban Inva-
sion Brigade, 29 December 1962, Miami, FL.
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is individually differentiated from his peers due to
his high training score. This available information
potentially causes the lieutenant to order informa-
tion based upon its perceived level of importance.
The high detection ability in training may facilitate
overconfidence in actual ability and neglect of the
base-rate of actual insurgents in the population of
only 10 percent. The result is that the lieutenant is
far more likely to mistake the innocent civilian for
an insurgent.39 Outside of the lieutenant’s mind (and
ego), the base-rate actually has a far greater impact
on the probability that the apprehended man is an
innocent civilian rather than an insurgent.40
Insensitivity to sample size. Consider a problem
from Afghanistan:
26. We suspect two primary drug trafficking
routes along the Afghan-Pakistani border.
A small village is located along the first
suspected route, while a larger village is
located along the other suspected route.
We also suspect that local residents of each
village guide the opium caravans along the
mountainous routes for money. Human
intelligence sources indicate that thirty men
from the small village and sixty-five men
from the large village engaged in guide
activities over the last month. Furthermore,
coalition check points and patrols recently
confirmed the G2 long-term estimate that
on average, twenty-five percent of the
male population of each village is engaged
monthly in guide activity. The smuggling
activity fluctuates monthly–sometimes
higher and other times lower. Which vil-
lage is likely to experience more months
of over forty percent participation rate in
smuggling?
If you selected the large village, then you are incor-
rect. If you guessed it would be 25 percent for both
villages, you are also incorrect. The small village
would have greater fluctuations in activity due to the
“law of large numbers.” As population size grows,
the average number becomes more stable with less
variation; therefore, the larger village’s monthly
percentage of guide activity is closer to the long–
term average of 25 percent. The smaller village has
greater monthly deviations from the long-term aver-
age value. This example highlights that insensitivity
to sample size occurs because many people do not
27. consider the “law of large numbers” when making
probability assessments and decisions.41
Misconceptions of chance. Many people mis-
understand the elements of chance. For example,
suppose you observe roulette in a casino. The
following three sequences of red and black could
occur: RBRBRB or RRRBBB or RBBBBB. Which
sequence is more likely? The answer is that all
of these sequences are equally likely; however,
if you were like most people in similar experi-
ments, then you most likely picked RBRBRB.42
This sequence is the most popular because people
expect the fundamental traits of the equilibrium
sequence (50 percent Black and 50 percent Red) to
be represented—yet if you stopped to do the math,
each sequence …
Assessment Task Information
Assessment title:Group Report
Module Name:
Business Organisations and Management
Module Code:
FC314
Tutor’s Name:
Dr. Robert (Ratthanava Tivaratchai)
Assessment will be set in:
Week 2
Assessment is due in:
Week 15
Assessment weighting:
40%Assessment Task Instructions:
For this assessment you will work in a small group of 3-4
students (groups will be allocated by your teacher), and you
28. have to write a report that analyses the performance of a
specific business organisation for a group of potential investors
who are seeking to invest in a major company. You should
select a company from the list below:
· Volkswagen
· Procter and Gamble
· HSBC
· H&M
· Walmart
· LVMH Moët Hennessy
· Chevron
· Amazon
First choose the company you are going to research. Your report
should include some background information about the
company, its performance and market position in relation to
relevant internal and external factors in the countries in which it
operates.
To successfully complete this task, you should work together as
a team: planning, organising, researching, analysing, writing
and referencing, to produce an effective written report.
Each team member will be responsible for writing a specific
section, or sections, of the report. You must decide, as a team,
which sections individual team members will work on.
Report Structure:
Section 1:Introduction –provide some background information
about the company, the nature of its business; also include a
brief summary of the purpose and content of the report.
Section 2: Operational Overview – this section should provide a
summary of the company’s operations: the industrial sector it
operates in and the products and/or services it offers; size and
scale of the organisation, the methods used to grow the
business; the company’s aims and objectives. You should also
include your team’s evaluation of how successfully you think
the company is achieving or working towards its aims and
29. objectives.
Section 3: Environmental Analysis – this section should contain
either a SWOT or a PESTLE analysis for the chosen company.
It should also consider how the company has responded to the
internal and external factors identified and make
recommendations for other possible responses.
Section 4: Marketing – using one or two of the company’s main
products or services as examples, this section should identify
and describe the marketing mix used for each, and comment on
how successful the strategies are and how they might be
improved.
Section 5: Financial performance - this section should provide a
brief analysis of the company’s financial performance. You will
need to locate the company accounts for the last two financial
years and comment on financial performance using data
contained in the profit and loss accounts and balance sheets.
Section 6: Conclusion –provide a brief overview of thestrengths
and aspects for improvement of your company and make
recommendations to the group of investors about whether or not
you would advise them to invest, with your reasons.
Section 7: Reference list (not included in the word count).
Theory and/or task resources required for the assessment:
· Industrial classifications
· Business size, scale, aims and purpose
· Environmental analysis
· Marketing
· Preparation of financial documents
You must conduct secondary research for this assessed task,
finding relevant sources. You should refer to a minimum of 8
relevant sources for your report. These sources should be a
30. combination of electronic and printed sources. In addition to the
company’s final accounts, you are expected to use academic
sources from the University Library. You may supplement these
with non-academic sources, e.g. news reports.
Assessment reference style:
You must use in-text citations and include a Harvard style
reference list at the end of your report.
Expected word count:
2500 - 3000 words, following the structure outlined above.
The word count does not include the title and contents pages,
reference list or any appendices.Learning Outcomes Assessed:
The following learning outcomes are assessed in this task:
· Apply knowledge and understanding of external and internal
business contexts in the analysis of the affairs of specific
business organisations in order to produce an appropriate report.
· Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of the external
factors that influence businesses and the skills to assess how
they might affect business activity.
Submission Requirements:
The group report should be submitted through Turnitin via the
VLE. Your report must be titled using the following pattern:
‘STUDENT NUMBER - GROUP NAME - TUTOR’S NAME’
Eg.’102648 - M27- Jane Smith’. Please do not write your names
on group report documents. Format your report like this:
· Use Arial or Calibri font, size 12
· Use double-spaces between lines/1.5 and standard document
margins
· Include an appropriate header
· Number all pages in the report
· Include a title page with the following information: Module
Code (e.g. FC314); Module Name (Business Organisations and
Management); Class/Group (e.g. Group A); Assessment Type
(e.g. Group Report); Module Tutor Name; Student ID Numbers
of all students in your group; Date of Submission; Word count
· On the contents page students should annotate the section(s)
they have worked on with their name and student ID number.
31. Assessed work submitted after the deadline may lose marks or
may not be accepted.Assessment Mark:
The assessment will be marked using four marking criteria.
Three of these criteria are team marks and one is for individual
contribution. The criteria are as follows:
· Individual contribution to task achievement: how well,
individually, you addressed the report task and the extent of
your overall contribution to the achievement of the task (35
marks – individual marks).
· Content and analysis: depth of knowledge and evidence of
understanding about the company, business environment,
marketing strategies and financial documents, and the extent to
which you used detail and analysis in the report. How well you
applied SWOT or PESTLE analysis, and evaluations of
marketing strategies and financial performance (25 marks –
team marks).
· Use of sources and support: how well researched your report is
and how well you used sources, examples and data to support
your analysis of the organisation, including how relevant your
sources are (25 marks – team marks).
· Presentation, structure and referencing: How well you have
organised, linked and developed your ideas, how well you have
presented and formatted your report, how accurately you have
used the Harvard referencing system for in-text citations and
reference list (15 marks – team marks).
You will receive a mark for each of these categories, and your
overall mark will be the total of the four. This assignment is
marked out of 100.Assessment Feedback:
Your tutor will mark the assessment via the Turnitin Plugin on
the VLE.
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