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INSIGHT
A W E E K L Y N E W S L E T T E R
P U B L I C AT I O N O F V I R T U E
C A P I T A L M A N A G E M E N T
A N N O U N C E M E N T S | I N F O R M A T I O N | A R T I C L E S | C O N S U M E R E S S E N T I A L S
W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7
866.907.4275 | www.virtuecm.com
INSIGHTA W E E K LY N E WS L E T T E R P U B L I C AT I O N O F V I RT U E C A P I TA L M A NA G E M E N T
A N N O U N C E M E N T S | I N F O R M A T I O N | A R T I C L E S | C O N S U M E R E S S E N T I A L S
Investment Advisory Services are offered through Virtue Capital Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. This newsletter is not to give investment advice.
Before investing in any advisory product please carefully read the firm’s ADVs before investing. See full disclaimer on page 3 of this document.
W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7
2
arkets seemed
more concerned
that the Fed would
move something
more than the 25
basis points they had indicated or that
their meeting statement would indicate
a more material change in outlook. In
the end, the Fed delivered what most
characterized a ‘dovish hike’ and mar-
kets breathed a sigh of relief.
Your Weekly Anecdotes:
•	 FOMC meeting highlights in-
cluded a 9 to 1 vote for a 25bps hike
(to 0.75%-1.00% range), confirmed
indications for two more hikes in 2017
(markets had been leaning toward
three), confirmed indications for three
hikes in 2018, and some changes to the
statement language.
•	 The FOMC meeting sent stocks,
bonds, emerging markets, and gold
higher. Only bank stocks didn’t
appreciate the communique as they re-
mained hopeful that the Fed would be
a bit more hawkish - given banks are in
the business of lending at prevailing in-
terest rates. Financials were the worst
performing sector on the week while
dividend oriented utilities and telecom
stocks outperformed.
•	 Interest rates had priced in some-
thing more than the Fed delivered and
fell across the curve despite the rate
hike. The yield curve ‘flattened’ as lon-
ger maturities fell more than shorter
maturities.
•	 The Fed Funds rate is still very
stimulative, with real interest rates
firmly in negative territory. The Taylor
Rule suggests the Fed Funds rate is
approximately 2.6% behind where it
should be at prevailing levels of infla-
tion and output.
•	 European stocks rallied sharply
on the BoE’s decision to stay on hold
with interest rates, despite increasing
inflation concerns. The PBOC hiked
rates in sympathy with the Fed.
•	 The S&P 500’s streak of consecutive
trading days without a 1% decline re-
mains intact at 108 days, near a 20 year
record. Meanwhile, Bespoke noted
that China’s current streak of 63 days
is more than double all prior streaks in
their market which is historically much
more volatile.
•	 Bespoke also noted that, since
WWII, in 21 of 22 years where the S&P
traded up over 5% in the first 50 trad-
ing days, it went on to post additional
gains for the remainder of the year.
•	 Valeant Pharmaceuticals is down
95% from its peak ($260s) in August
2015. Its highest profile shareholder,
Bill Ackman of Pershing Square, sold
his entire stake for $11 this week.
•	 The electoral populist momentum
was dealt a setback last week in the
widely watched Dutch elections. The
far-right Freedom Party did not secure
the most Parliament seats as they had
hoped and will now battle for coalition
alignment with all of the other political
parties in Denmark.
Your Weekly Economic Updates:
•	 February headline and core infla-
tion (CPI) data registered 2.7% and
2.2% respectively.
•	 The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow fore-
cast has been edging down from 2.5%
in February to only 0.9% last week.
•	 The JOLTs report showed low Jan-
uary layoffs, high private sector quit
rates (just below 2007 highs), and job
openings remaining near all-time
highs.
•	 February retail sales met expec-
tations but the January figure was
revised materially higher.
•	 Manufacturing production has
accelerated sharply. Over the last 6
months, it has risen at an annual rate
of 3.48%, the strongest rate since July
2014.
FOMCmeeting;non-U.S.stocksstealtheshow.
www.virtuecm.com
M
866.907.4275 | www.virtuecm.com
INSIGHT
Investment Advisory Services are offered through Virtue Capital Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. This newsletter is not to give investment advice.
Before investing in any advisory product please carefully read the firm’s ADVs before investing. The information published herein is provided for informational purposes only,
and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to sell or an offer to buy securities, investment products or investment advisory services. Nothing contained
herein constitutes financial, legal, tax, or other advice. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. Investment recommendations may
change and readers are urged to check with their investment adviser before making any investment decisions. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that
may not be realized. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.
W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7
3
MARKET ANALYSIS
Stop Loss Strategy - The Stop Loss strategy has returned 5.1% year to date; and 23.3% vs. 22.8% on the benchmark
since transitioning to the risk-on portfolio March 1. The sell trigger is maintained at 2108 following the most recent
high watermark on the S&P 500 Index.
INSIGHT EXTRAS VCM Model Portfolio Updates
866.907.4275 | www.virtuecm.com
INSIGHT STATS
Investment Advisory Services are offered through Virtue Capital Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. This newsletter is not to give investment advice.
Before investing in any advisory product please carefully read the firm’s ADVs before investing. See full disclaimer on page 3 of this document.
W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7
4
• OBAMACARE TO TRUMPCARE - House Republi-
cans released the “American Health Care Act” (AHCA) on
Monday 3/06/17, the GOP’s plan to replace the “Affordable
Care Act” (ACA). It is expected that the AHCA will go to
the House floor for a vote no sooner than late March 2017.
The Senate will take up the health care legislation only after
the House passes its version and the Senate could rewrite
their own bill (source: BTN Research).
• RECONCILIATION - Republicans will move the AHCA
through Congress using a legislation process called “recon-
ciliation,” a procedure created in 1974. The House and the
Senate can pass “reconciliation” bills with only a “simple
majority” rather than the “three-fifths majority” needed for
most legislation (source: Congress).
• HAS BEEN USED BEFORE - “Reconciliation” has been
used 24 times by Congress since 1974, including 4 times
when the legislation passed Congress but was ultimately
vetoed by the sitting president. “Reconciliation” was used
by the Democrats to pass the ACA in March 2010 (source:
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities).
• SIMPLE MAJORITY - To pass the AHCA using “rec-
onciliation,” Republicans will need the support of 50 of 52
GOP Senators (the VP breaks any tie) and 216 of 237 GOP
House members (5 seats are vacant), assuming no Demo-
crats support the legislation. GOP leaders hope to pass the
AHCA by mid-April 2017 (source: Congress).
• THE PLAN - Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI)
has a 3-step plan to repeal and replace the ACA: 1) pass the
AHCA using “reconciliation,” repealing much of the ACA;
2) use the administrative powers of Health and Human
Services Secretary Tom Price to undo other ACA provi-
sions; 3) convince enough Democrats to support a series of
non-budget related health care bills (e.g., selling across state
lines) to garner the required three-fifths majority needed to
complete the repeal and replacement of the ACA (source:
BTN Research).
• DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS - The AHCA bill is 123
pages long. The March 2010 ACA bill was 961 pages long
and resulted in 13,000 pages of rules and regulations to
implement the law (source: BTN Research).
• MEANS-TESTED TAX CREDITS - The AHCA will uti-
lize refundable tax credits that range from $2,000 for people
less than 30 to $4,000 for those over 60, and will be phased
out for individuals earning more than $75,000 and for cou-
ples earning more than $150,000 that file joint returns. The
AHCA tax credits will likely be less generous than the ACA
tax credits, which covered more than 80% of the average
health insurance cost (source: BTN Research).
• WE THINK - The CBO “scored” the AHCA, releasing
its findings on 3/13/17. CBO estimates 14 million more
Americans will be uninsured in 2018 under the AHCA
than under the ACA, a combination of people forgoing
coverage due to no forced mandate and others dropping
coverage due to higher premiums (source: CBO).
• THEIR OWN CHOICE - Of the projected 14 million
additional uninsured individuals in 2018 due to AHCA
legislation, 5 million individuals are anticipated to volun-
tary give up their Medicaid benefits because they no longer
would be subject to the insurance mandate required under
the ACA (source: CBO).
• COST ESTIMATES - The CBO projects that AHCA
average premiums will be 15-20% higher than ACA average
premiums in 2018-19. By 2020, AHCA average premiums
will be less than those of the ACA. By 2026, AHCA average
premiums are projected to be 10% cheaper than ACA aver-
age premiums (source: CBO).
• DEFICITS - The CBO estimates that the AHCA would
reduce federal deficits by $337 billion over the next 10
years, largely from reduced Medicaid outlays and from the
elimination of ACA tax credits (source: CBO).
• LESS TAX REVENUE - The AHCA proposal to elimi-
nate 14 separate ACA tax increases would reduce federal
tax revenue by $574.5 billion over the next 10 years (source:
Joint Committee on Taxation).
• DELAYED AGAIN - The implementation of the ACA’s
“Cadillac Tax,” a 40% tax on high-benefit healthcare plans,
will be delayed to 1/01/2025. This tax was previously de-
layed from 2018 to 2020 (source: AHCA).
• MEDICAID - The AHCA leaves Medicaid expansion
derived from the ACA untouched until 2020. Before 2020,
the 31 states that expanded Medicaid coverage would still
be able to enroll residents with a matching rate of 90% from
the federal government. Beginning in 2020, new Medic-
aid enrollees would not be eligible for the higher federal
financing. As of 1/01/2020, the federal funding of Medicaid
would switch to a per-capita system rather than the current
structure that matches state spending (source: AHCA).
• LOTS JOINED - States that expanded their Medicaid
coverage enrolled many more lower-income people than
anticipated. E.g., California projected 910,000 would enroll
under its Medicaid expansion. Actual increased enrollment
in the state topped 3.8 million (source: BTN Research).
Weekly Facts, Stats & Other Interesting Tidbits of Information

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36ea41bc 49b5-4c99-98be-5ebed473f86a(1)

  • 1. INSIGHT A W E E K L Y N E W S L E T T E R P U B L I C AT I O N O F V I R T U E C A P I T A L M A N A G E M E N T A N N O U N C E M E N T S | I N F O R M A T I O N | A R T I C L E S | C O N S U M E R E S S E N T I A L S W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7 866.907.4275 | www.virtuecm.com
  • 2. INSIGHTA W E E K LY N E WS L E T T E R P U B L I C AT I O N O F V I RT U E C A P I TA L M A NA G E M E N T A N N O U N C E M E N T S | I N F O R M A T I O N | A R T I C L E S | C O N S U M E R E S S E N T I A L S Investment Advisory Services are offered through Virtue Capital Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. This newsletter is not to give investment advice. Before investing in any advisory product please carefully read the firm’s ADVs before investing. See full disclaimer on page 3 of this document. W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7 2 arkets seemed more concerned that the Fed would move something more than the 25 basis points they had indicated or that their meeting statement would indicate a more material change in outlook. In the end, the Fed delivered what most characterized a ‘dovish hike’ and mar- kets breathed a sigh of relief. Your Weekly Anecdotes: • FOMC meeting highlights in- cluded a 9 to 1 vote for a 25bps hike (to 0.75%-1.00% range), confirmed indications for two more hikes in 2017 (markets had been leaning toward three), confirmed indications for three hikes in 2018, and some changes to the statement language. • The FOMC meeting sent stocks, bonds, emerging markets, and gold higher. Only bank stocks didn’t appreciate the communique as they re- mained hopeful that the Fed would be a bit more hawkish - given banks are in the business of lending at prevailing in- terest rates. Financials were the worst performing sector on the week while dividend oriented utilities and telecom stocks outperformed. • Interest rates had priced in some- thing more than the Fed delivered and fell across the curve despite the rate hike. The yield curve ‘flattened’ as lon- ger maturities fell more than shorter maturities. • The Fed Funds rate is still very stimulative, with real interest rates firmly in negative territory. The Taylor Rule suggests the Fed Funds rate is approximately 2.6% behind where it should be at prevailing levels of infla- tion and output. • European stocks rallied sharply on the BoE’s decision to stay on hold with interest rates, despite increasing inflation concerns. The PBOC hiked rates in sympathy with the Fed. • The S&P 500’s streak of consecutive trading days without a 1% decline re- mains intact at 108 days, near a 20 year record. Meanwhile, Bespoke noted that China’s current streak of 63 days is more than double all prior streaks in their market which is historically much more volatile. • Bespoke also noted that, since WWII, in 21 of 22 years where the S&P traded up over 5% in the first 50 trad- ing days, it went on to post additional gains for the remainder of the year. • Valeant Pharmaceuticals is down 95% from its peak ($260s) in August 2015. Its highest profile shareholder, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square, sold his entire stake for $11 this week. • The electoral populist momentum was dealt a setback last week in the widely watched Dutch elections. The far-right Freedom Party did not secure the most Parliament seats as they had hoped and will now battle for coalition alignment with all of the other political parties in Denmark. Your Weekly Economic Updates: • February headline and core infla- tion (CPI) data registered 2.7% and 2.2% respectively. • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow fore- cast has been edging down from 2.5% in February to only 0.9% last week. • The JOLTs report showed low Jan- uary layoffs, high private sector quit rates (just below 2007 highs), and job openings remaining near all-time highs. • February retail sales met expec- tations but the January figure was revised materially higher. • Manufacturing production has accelerated sharply. Over the last 6 months, it has risen at an annual rate of 3.48%, the strongest rate since July 2014. FOMCmeeting;non-U.S.stocksstealtheshow. www.virtuecm.com M
  • 3. 866.907.4275 | www.virtuecm.com INSIGHT Investment Advisory Services are offered through Virtue Capital Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. This newsletter is not to give investment advice. Before investing in any advisory product please carefully read the firm’s ADVs before investing. The information published herein is provided for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to sell or an offer to buy securities, investment products or investment advisory services. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, legal, tax, or other advice. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment adviser before making any investment decisions. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns. W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7 3 MARKET ANALYSIS Stop Loss Strategy - The Stop Loss strategy has returned 5.1% year to date; and 23.3% vs. 22.8% on the benchmark since transitioning to the risk-on portfolio March 1. The sell trigger is maintained at 2108 following the most recent high watermark on the S&P 500 Index. INSIGHT EXTRAS VCM Model Portfolio Updates
  • 4. 866.907.4275 | www.virtuecm.com INSIGHT STATS Investment Advisory Services are offered through Virtue Capital Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. This newsletter is not to give investment advice. Before investing in any advisory product please carefully read the firm’s ADVs before investing. See full disclaimer on page 3 of this document. W E E K E N D I N G 3 / 1 7 / 1 7 4 • OBAMACARE TO TRUMPCARE - House Republi- cans released the “American Health Care Act” (AHCA) on Monday 3/06/17, the GOP’s plan to replace the “Affordable Care Act” (ACA). It is expected that the AHCA will go to the House floor for a vote no sooner than late March 2017. The Senate will take up the health care legislation only after the House passes its version and the Senate could rewrite their own bill (source: BTN Research). • RECONCILIATION - Republicans will move the AHCA through Congress using a legislation process called “recon- ciliation,” a procedure created in 1974. The House and the Senate can pass “reconciliation” bills with only a “simple majority” rather than the “three-fifths majority” needed for most legislation (source: Congress). • HAS BEEN USED BEFORE - “Reconciliation” has been used 24 times by Congress since 1974, including 4 times when the legislation passed Congress but was ultimately vetoed by the sitting president. “Reconciliation” was used by the Democrats to pass the ACA in March 2010 (source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities). • SIMPLE MAJORITY - To pass the AHCA using “rec- onciliation,” Republicans will need the support of 50 of 52 GOP Senators (the VP breaks any tie) and 216 of 237 GOP House members (5 seats are vacant), assuming no Demo- crats support the legislation. GOP leaders hope to pass the AHCA by mid-April 2017 (source: Congress). • THE PLAN - Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) has a 3-step plan to repeal and replace the ACA: 1) pass the AHCA using “reconciliation,” repealing much of the ACA; 2) use the administrative powers of Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price to undo other ACA provi- sions; 3) convince enough Democrats to support a series of non-budget related health care bills (e.g., selling across state lines) to garner the required three-fifths majority needed to complete the repeal and replacement of the ACA (source: BTN Research). • DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS - The AHCA bill is 123 pages long. The March 2010 ACA bill was 961 pages long and resulted in 13,000 pages of rules and regulations to implement the law (source: BTN Research). • MEANS-TESTED TAX CREDITS - The AHCA will uti- lize refundable tax credits that range from $2,000 for people less than 30 to $4,000 for those over 60, and will be phased out for individuals earning more than $75,000 and for cou- ples earning more than $150,000 that file joint returns. The AHCA tax credits will likely be less generous than the ACA tax credits, which covered more than 80% of the average health insurance cost (source: BTN Research). • WE THINK - The CBO “scored” the AHCA, releasing its findings on 3/13/17. CBO estimates 14 million more Americans will be uninsured in 2018 under the AHCA than under the ACA, a combination of people forgoing coverage due to no forced mandate and others dropping coverage due to higher premiums (source: CBO). • THEIR OWN CHOICE - Of the projected 14 million additional uninsured individuals in 2018 due to AHCA legislation, 5 million individuals are anticipated to volun- tary give up their Medicaid benefits because they no longer would be subject to the insurance mandate required under the ACA (source: CBO). • COST ESTIMATES - The CBO projects that AHCA average premiums will be 15-20% higher than ACA average premiums in 2018-19. By 2020, AHCA average premiums will be less than those of the ACA. By 2026, AHCA average premiums are projected to be 10% cheaper than ACA aver- age premiums (source: CBO). • DEFICITS - The CBO estimates that the AHCA would reduce federal deficits by $337 billion over the next 10 years, largely from reduced Medicaid outlays and from the elimination of ACA tax credits (source: CBO). • LESS TAX REVENUE - The AHCA proposal to elimi- nate 14 separate ACA tax increases would reduce federal tax revenue by $574.5 billion over the next 10 years (source: Joint Committee on Taxation). • DELAYED AGAIN - The implementation of the ACA’s “Cadillac Tax,” a 40% tax on high-benefit healthcare plans, will be delayed to 1/01/2025. This tax was previously de- layed from 2018 to 2020 (source: AHCA). • MEDICAID - The AHCA leaves Medicaid expansion derived from the ACA untouched until 2020. Before 2020, the 31 states that expanded Medicaid coverage would still be able to enroll residents with a matching rate of 90% from the federal government. Beginning in 2020, new Medic- aid enrollees would not be eligible for the higher federal financing. As of 1/01/2020, the federal funding of Medicaid would switch to a per-capita system rather than the current structure that matches state spending (source: AHCA). • LOTS JOINED - States that expanded their Medicaid coverage enrolled many more lower-income people than anticipated. E.g., California projected 910,000 would enroll under its Medicaid expansion. Actual increased enrollment in the state topped 3.8 million (source: BTN Research). Weekly Facts, Stats & Other Interesting Tidbits of Information