This document provides a literature review on theories of demographic and epidemiological transitions in developing countries. It begins with background on demographic transition theory and how populations have shifted from high mortality and fertility to low levels. While developed countries have largely completed transitions, developing countries are still undergoing diverse transitions. The document then reviews literature on historic transitions in mortality, causes of death, and fertility in developed regions. It finds that while developing countries saw large mortality declines in the 20th century, the contributions of factors like improved sanitation versus medical treatments likely differed from historic transitions. The implications for transition theories and developing world societies require further study.
The general shift from acute infectious and deficiency diseases characteristic of underdevelopment to chronic non-communicable diseases characteristic of modernization and advanced levels of development is usually referred to as the "epidemiological transition".
This presentation defines epidemiology and the theory of epidemiologic transition proposed by Abdel Omran. It explains that the epidemiologic transition is the process by which patterns of disease and mortality shift from infectious/parasitic diseases to degenerative and man-made diseases as a society develops. The theory outlines five stages: 1) pestilence and famine dominated by infectious diseases, 2) receding pandemics as sanitation and medicine improve, 3) increasing rates of degenerative diseases like heart disease and cancer, and 4) a delayed degenerative stage where life expectancy increases through medical advances but non-communicable diseases rise due to obesity and sedentary lifestyles. The presentation provides details on each stage, highlighting the Black
Chung Et Al Socioeconomic Development Mortalitynthobservation
The document analyzes mortality rates in Hong Kong between 1976-2005 using age-period-cohort models to examine the effects of socioeconomic development on mortality risk. It finds that:
1) Male mortality from ischemic heart disease and female mortality from other cancers increased with birth into a more economically developed environment.
2) Cardiovascular disease mortality increased with birth after the start of an infant/childhood adiposity epidemic in the 1960s, particularly for men.
3) Macroenvironmental changes associated with economic development had sex-specific effects over the life course, likely originating in early life.
Coorelation study between hdi and epidemiological transition ratio among indi...subhash chandra
The Epidemiological transition—the shift from infectious and deficiency diseases to chronic non communicable diseases—was a unidirectional process, beginning when infectious diseases were predominant and ending when non communicable diseases dominated the causes of death.
It has, however, become apparent that this transition is more complex and dynamic: the health and disease patterns of a society evolve in diverse ways as a result of demographic, socioeconomic, technological, cultural, environmental and biological changes.
It is rather a continuous transformation process, with some diseases disappearing and others appearing or re-emerging. This also indicates that such a process is not unidirectional
This document summarizes Demographic Transition Theory and discusses optimal population. It describes the five stages of demographic transition that countries generally progress through as they develop economically: (1) high birth and death rates; (2) declining death rates and high birth rates leading to population growth; (3) declining birth rates as well as death rates; (4) low birth and death rates as population growth stabilizes; and (5) potentially declining population. It then discusses India's progression through these stages and the implications, including a current demographic dividend opportunity due to a large working-age population. The document estimates an optimal global population of 1.5-2 billion people based on allowing basic human rights and preservation of biodiversity.
This document discusses globalization and its effects on health. It defines globalization as the increasing flow of information, goods, capital and people across borders due to improvements in technology and transportation. It notes that globalization influences how people experience space, time and culture. While globalization provides opportunities to improve health through increased access to information and services, it can also threaten health by increasing economic insecurity, spreading unhealthy lifestyles, and widening health inequalities between rich and poor. The document examines both benefits and risks of greater economic integration and mobility of people and ideas under globalization.
The document discusses the nutrition transition, defined as the shift in dietary consumption and energy expenditure that accompanies economic, demographic, and epidemiological changes. It outlines the 5 stages of the nutrition transition: 1) collecting food, 2) famine, 3) receding famine, 4) nutrition-related non-communicable diseases, and 5) behavioral change. Urbanization is contributing to nutrition transitions in developing countries as diets shift toward more processed foods and a more sedentary lifestyle. This nutrition transition is creating a double burden of disease and negatively impacting health systems in developing nations.
The general shift from acute infectious and deficiency diseases characteristic of underdevelopment to chronic non-communicable diseases characteristic of modernization and advanced levels of development is usually referred to as the "epidemiological transition".
This presentation defines epidemiology and the theory of epidemiologic transition proposed by Abdel Omran. It explains that the epidemiologic transition is the process by which patterns of disease and mortality shift from infectious/parasitic diseases to degenerative and man-made diseases as a society develops. The theory outlines five stages: 1) pestilence and famine dominated by infectious diseases, 2) receding pandemics as sanitation and medicine improve, 3) increasing rates of degenerative diseases like heart disease and cancer, and 4) a delayed degenerative stage where life expectancy increases through medical advances but non-communicable diseases rise due to obesity and sedentary lifestyles. The presentation provides details on each stage, highlighting the Black
Chung Et Al Socioeconomic Development Mortalitynthobservation
The document analyzes mortality rates in Hong Kong between 1976-2005 using age-period-cohort models to examine the effects of socioeconomic development on mortality risk. It finds that:
1) Male mortality from ischemic heart disease and female mortality from other cancers increased with birth into a more economically developed environment.
2) Cardiovascular disease mortality increased with birth after the start of an infant/childhood adiposity epidemic in the 1960s, particularly for men.
3) Macroenvironmental changes associated with economic development had sex-specific effects over the life course, likely originating in early life.
Coorelation study between hdi and epidemiological transition ratio among indi...subhash chandra
The Epidemiological transition—the shift from infectious and deficiency diseases to chronic non communicable diseases—was a unidirectional process, beginning when infectious diseases were predominant and ending when non communicable diseases dominated the causes of death.
It has, however, become apparent that this transition is more complex and dynamic: the health and disease patterns of a society evolve in diverse ways as a result of demographic, socioeconomic, technological, cultural, environmental and biological changes.
It is rather a continuous transformation process, with some diseases disappearing and others appearing or re-emerging. This also indicates that such a process is not unidirectional
This document summarizes Demographic Transition Theory and discusses optimal population. It describes the five stages of demographic transition that countries generally progress through as they develop economically: (1) high birth and death rates; (2) declining death rates and high birth rates leading to population growth; (3) declining birth rates as well as death rates; (4) low birth and death rates as population growth stabilizes; and (5) potentially declining population. It then discusses India's progression through these stages and the implications, including a current demographic dividend opportunity due to a large working-age population. The document estimates an optimal global population of 1.5-2 billion people based on allowing basic human rights and preservation of biodiversity.
This document discusses globalization and its effects on health. It defines globalization as the increasing flow of information, goods, capital and people across borders due to improvements in technology and transportation. It notes that globalization influences how people experience space, time and culture. While globalization provides opportunities to improve health through increased access to information and services, it can also threaten health by increasing economic insecurity, spreading unhealthy lifestyles, and widening health inequalities between rich and poor. The document examines both benefits and risks of greater economic integration and mobility of people and ideas under globalization.
The document discusses the nutrition transition, defined as the shift in dietary consumption and energy expenditure that accompanies economic, demographic, and epidemiological changes. It outlines the 5 stages of the nutrition transition: 1) collecting food, 2) famine, 3) receding famine, 4) nutrition-related non-communicable diseases, and 5) behavioral change. Urbanization is contributing to nutrition transitions in developing countries as diets shift toward more processed foods and a more sedentary lifestyle. This nutrition transition is creating a double burden of disease and negatively impacting health systems in developing nations.
This document discusses several uses of epidemiology based on a 1954 speech by JN Morris. It provides three examples:
1. Epidemiology can be used for historical study, as shown by figures tracking declining mortality rates in middle-aged men and women from 1900-1953 in England and Wales. This revealed the emergence of diseases like heart disease and lung cancer as major causes of death in middle-aged men.
2. Epidemiology involves studying the health of populations and groups to understand the impact of social and environmental factors. It can examine questions around recent social changes and their public health implications.
3. Epidemiology provides facts about community health by describing the nature, size and distributions of health problems
The document identifies ten important determinants of mortality based on a review of sources. The top ten determinants are:
1. Income level and employment status, as wealthier nations have lower mortality rates.
2. Nutritional status, as malnutrition increases risk of death from infection.
3. Epidemics, as disease outbreaks can cause many deaths, like the 1918 influenza pandemic.
4. Injuries, both intentional and unintentional, account for around 9% of deaths globally.
5. Personal behaviors like diet, alcohol and tobacco use, and hygiene practices impact mortality.
6. Education levels, especially of women, influence health behaviors and outcomes.
This document discusses global demography, population, urbanization, and ecology. It defines key demographic concepts like population, demography, fertility, mortality, and migration. It explains how demographers study and analyze population size, composition, distribution and changes. Tools of demography discussed include count, rate, ratio, proportion, and cohort/period measures. Population composition and density are addressed. The document details factors influencing global fertility rates, improvements reducing mortality, and impacts of migration on population structure. World population statistics from 2019 are also provided. The document concludes with an announcement about an upcoming quiz on global cities.
The Demographic Transition Theory proposes that populations progress through four stages as countries develop economically: from high birth and death rates to low rates. While this generally occurred in Europe, the theory may not fully apply to Caribbean countries. The Caribbean experienced high birth and death rates in Stage 1, but did not see consistently falling rates as expected in later stages. The theory is too simplistic and Eurocentric to fully capture population changes influenced by factors like education levels, cultural practices, and racial dynamics in the Caribbean. While the theory provides context for historical European trends, it is limited in explaining population changes across diverse societies.
Rural transformation and nutrition transition: Same pathways, different speeds?IFPRI-PIM
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets Workshop on Rural Transformation in the 21st Century (Vancouver, BC – 28 July 2018, 30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists). Presented by Will Masters, Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy and Department of Economics, Tufts University.
Demography is the scientific study of human populations and how they change. It examines population size, growth, characteristics, composition, migration, and more. Studying populations is important because it allows sociologists to understand sudden changes and how growth affects society. Both slow and rapid population growth can cause problems. Demographic data comes from censuses, vital statistics like births and deaths, and surveys. A population's age composition and sex ratio influence its economic and social structures. Key elements of demography include birth rate, death rate, total fertility rate, life expectancy, and growth rate. Rapid population growth can result from high birth rates not matched by mortality as well as migration for economic reasons. This rapid growth can have negative economic,
Demography is the statistical study of human populations and encompasses the size, structure, and distribution of populations over time and space in response to births, deaths, and migration. Demographic data can be collected directly from vital records like censuses or birth/death records, or indirectly by surveying samples about topics like fertility rates. The scope of demography includes both macro-level trends like economic issues and population growth, as well as micro-level topics like individual families. A balanced view of demography encompasses factors like population size, composition, distribution, labor forces, and population policies.
Slides from ICWSM'17 workshop on Social Media for Demographic Research (Montreal, May 2017)
Overview of demography
How can demographers contribute to the analysis of big data (social media)? How can social media contribute to population studies?
Concerns over data quality.
Data Revolution and the SDGs: overview and value, huge challenges for attaining a economic-demographic-
environment balance, and the urgent need for data scientists and demographers to work on these issues.
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in less developed countries, Sa...Nishat Zareen
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in the less developed countries by Samuel H. Preston. This article is presented in the context of Bangladesh. The sole purpose of this paper is to identify the factors responsible for the dramatic decline of mortality rates in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. These factors were broadly termed as 'social and economic development' and 'technical changes'.
Demography is the statistical study of human populations and how they change over time or space. It involves analyzing the size, structure, and distribution of populations, as well as changes in populations due to birth, migration, aging, and death. Demography is important for sociology and other social sciences because all social groups are populations that change in size, location, and characteristics over time, impacting cultures, economies, politics, and societies. Demographers study overall population size, territorial distribution of populations, and population composition.
GHME 2013 Conference
Session: Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010: workshop on methods and key findings
Date: June 18 2013
Presenter: Rafael Lozano
Institute:
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington
The document discusses health indicators and provides definitions, characteristics, classifications, and examples of health indicators. It describes how health indicators can be used to measure community health status, describe health needs, compare communities, and evaluate and plan health services. Some key health indicators discussed include mortality rates, morbidity rates, nutritional status, health care access, and quality of life measures.
This document provides an introduction to measuring population health using the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) as a single metric. It describes how DALYs are calculated by adding Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) for prevalent cases of disease and injury. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, led by several organizations, estimates DALYs for 291 diseases, 1160 sequelae, and 220 health states in 187 countries to quantify population health gaps compared to an ideal standard. This allows comparison of disease burden over time, between locations, and for different diseases and risk factors.
This document discusses the health transition and epidemiological transition experienced by populations. It begins by defining key terms like demography, epidemiology, and fertility. It then discusses population growth trends globally over history. The main topics covered include the demographic transition characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates, and the epidemiological transition where infectious diseases are replaced by non-communicable diseases as the major causes of death. The engines driving these transitions are described as urbanization, changing demographics, epidemiology, socioeconomics, and advances in healthcare.
Increases in sociocultural complexity, energy usage, and population size over the past 10,000 years have significantly impacted human health and disease. As populations became more sedentary with the rise of agriculture around 10,000 years ago, infectious diseases spread more easily in crowded settlements and epidemics became more severe. Industrialization in cities further exacerbated health problems due to poor sanitation and nutrition. While infectious diseases were historically the leading cause of death, many societies have undergone an epidemiological transition so that non-communicable diseases are now more prevalent as living standards improve.
Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states in populations and the application of this study to disease prevention and control. The document traces the history of epidemiology from its early foundations in the work of Hippocrates and John Graunt to its modern applications in identifying risk factors for diseases and conditions. It discusses how epidemiology has evolved from a focus on infectious diseases to also study chronic diseases, injuries, behaviors, and genetic/molecular factors. The epidemiological transition framework describes stages in changing disease patterns as societies develop, from an early focus on famine/pandemics to modern burdens of noncommunicable diseases.
This document describes different types of epidemiological studies, including observational and experimental studies. Observational studies are divided into descriptive and analytical categories. Descriptive studies identify patterns of disease occurrence and include case reports, case series, cross-sectional studies, and ecological studies. Analytical studies establish associations between exposures and outcomes, and include case-control and cohort studies. Experimental studies, like clinical trials, determine exposure through a controlled process to study effects over time. Randomized controlled trials are considered the ideal method to identify appropriate treatments.
The document provides an overview of environmental health topics including:
- Current issues like pollution, population growth, and poverty impacting the environment.
- Definitions of key terms like environmental health, ecology, and carrying capacity.
- Historical population trends and future projections showing continued growth.
- Career opportunities in the environmental health field such as toxicology, food safety, and vector control.
TB is one of the oldest and most important infectious diseases globally. It infects one third of the world's population and kills over 3 million people annually. While TB rates declined in developed nations due to improved living standards, infection and mortality rates are increasing worldwide due to factors such as aging populations, increased travel and migration, rising drug resistance, and the interaction of TB with HIV/AIDS. Key vulnerable groups include the malnourished, elderly, poor, migrants, and those with conditions like HIV that weaken the immune system.
This document discusses several uses of epidemiology based on a 1954 speech by JN Morris. It provides three examples:
1. Epidemiology can be used for historical study, as shown by figures tracking declining mortality rates in middle-aged men and women from 1900-1953 in England and Wales. This revealed the emergence of diseases like heart disease and lung cancer as major causes of death in middle-aged men.
2. Epidemiology involves studying the health of populations and groups to understand the impact of social and environmental factors. It can examine questions around recent social changes and their public health implications.
3. Epidemiology provides facts about community health by describing the nature, size and distributions of health problems
The document identifies ten important determinants of mortality based on a review of sources. The top ten determinants are:
1. Income level and employment status, as wealthier nations have lower mortality rates.
2. Nutritional status, as malnutrition increases risk of death from infection.
3. Epidemics, as disease outbreaks can cause many deaths, like the 1918 influenza pandemic.
4. Injuries, both intentional and unintentional, account for around 9% of deaths globally.
5. Personal behaviors like diet, alcohol and tobacco use, and hygiene practices impact mortality.
6. Education levels, especially of women, influence health behaviors and outcomes.
This document discusses global demography, population, urbanization, and ecology. It defines key demographic concepts like population, demography, fertility, mortality, and migration. It explains how demographers study and analyze population size, composition, distribution and changes. Tools of demography discussed include count, rate, ratio, proportion, and cohort/period measures. Population composition and density are addressed. The document details factors influencing global fertility rates, improvements reducing mortality, and impacts of migration on population structure. World population statistics from 2019 are also provided. The document concludes with an announcement about an upcoming quiz on global cities.
The Demographic Transition Theory proposes that populations progress through four stages as countries develop economically: from high birth and death rates to low rates. While this generally occurred in Europe, the theory may not fully apply to Caribbean countries. The Caribbean experienced high birth and death rates in Stage 1, but did not see consistently falling rates as expected in later stages. The theory is too simplistic and Eurocentric to fully capture population changes influenced by factors like education levels, cultural practices, and racial dynamics in the Caribbean. While the theory provides context for historical European trends, it is limited in explaining population changes across diverse societies.
Rural transformation and nutrition transition: Same pathways, different speeds?IFPRI-PIM
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets Workshop on Rural Transformation in the 21st Century (Vancouver, BC – 28 July 2018, 30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists). Presented by Will Masters, Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy and Department of Economics, Tufts University.
Demography is the scientific study of human populations and how they change. It examines population size, growth, characteristics, composition, migration, and more. Studying populations is important because it allows sociologists to understand sudden changes and how growth affects society. Both slow and rapid population growth can cause problems. Demographic data comes from censuses, vital statistics like births and deaths, and surveys. A population's age composition and sex ratio influence its economic and social structures. Key elements of demography include birth rate, death rate, total fertility rate, life expectancy, and growth rate. Rapid population growth can result from high birth rates not matched by mortality as well as migration for economic reasons. This rapid growth can have negative economic,
Demography is the statistical study of human populations and encompasses the size, structure, and distribution of populations over time and space in response to births, deaths, and migration. Demographic data can be collected directly from vital records like censuses or birth/death records, or indirectly by surveying samples about topics like fertility rates. The scope of demography includes both macro-level trends like economic issues and population growth, as well as micro-level topics like individual families. A balanced view of demography encompasses factors like population size, composition, distribution, labor forces, and population policies.
Slides from ICWSM'17 workshop on Social Media for Demographic Research (Montreal, May 2017)
Overview of demography
How can demographers contribute to the analysis of big data (social media)? How can social media contribute to population studies?
Concerns over data quality.
Data Revolution and the SDGs: overview and value, huge challenges for attaining a economic-demographic-
environment balance, and the urgent need for data scientists and demographers to work on these issues.
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in less developed countries, Sa...Nishat Zareen
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in the less developed countries by Samuel H. Preston. This article is presented in the context of Bangladesh. The sole purpose of this paper is to identify the factors responsible for the dramatic decline of mortality rates in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. These factors were broadly termed as 'social and economic development' and 'technical changes'.
Demography is the statistical study of human populations and how they change over time or space. It involves analyzing the size, structure, and distribution of populations, as well as changes in populations due to birth, migration, aging, and death. Demography is important for sociology and other social sciences because all social groups are populations that change in size, location, and characteristics over time, impacting cultures, economies, politics, and societies. Demographers study overall population size, territorial distribution of populations, and population composition.
GHME 2013 Conference
Session: Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010: workshop on methods and key findings
Date: June 18 2013
Presenter: Rafael Lozano
Institute:
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington
The document discusses health indicators and provides definitions, characteristics, classifications, and examples of health indicators. It describes how health indicators can be used to measure community health status, describe health needs, compare communities, and evaluate and plan health services. Some key health indicators discussed include mortality rates, morbidity rates, nutritional status, health care access, and quality of life measures.
This document provides an introduction to measuring population health using the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) as a single metric. It describes how DALYs are calculated by adding Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) for prevalent cases of disease and injury. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, led by several organizations, estimates DALYs for 291 diseases, 1160 sequelae, and 220 health states in 187 countries to quantify population health gaps compared to an ideal standard. This allows comparison of disease burden over time, between locations, and for different diseases and risk factors.
This document discusses the health transition and epidemiological transition experienced by populations. It begins by defining key terms like demography, epidemiology, and fertility. It then discusses population growth trends globally over history. The main topics covered include the demographic transition characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates, and the epidemiological transition where infectious diseases are replaced by non-communicable diseases as the major causes of death. The engines driving these transitions are described as urbanization, changing demographics, epidemiology, socioeconomics, and advances in healthcare.
Increases in sociocultural complexity, energy usage, and population size over the past 10,000 years have significantly impacted human health and disease. As populations became more sedentary with the rise of agriculture around 10,000 years ago, infectious diseases spread more easily in crowded settlements and epidemics became more severe. Industrialization in cities further exacerbated health problems due to poor sanitation and nutrition. While infectious diseases were historically the leading cause of death, many societies have undergone an epidemiological transition so that non-communicable diseases are now more prevalent as living standards improve.
Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states in populations and the application of this study to disease prevention and control. The document traces the history of epidemiology from its early foundations in the work of Hippocrates and John Graunt to its modern applications in identifying risk factors for diseases and conditions. It discusses how epidemiology has evolved from a focus on infectious diseases to also study chronic diseases, injuries, behaviors, and genetic/molecular factors. The epidemiological transition framework describes stages in changing disease patterns as societies develop, from an early focus on famine/pandemics to modern burdens of noncommunicable diseases.
This document describes different types of epidemiological studies, including observational and experimental studies. Observational studies are divided into descriptive and analytical categories. Descriptive studies identify patterns of disease occurrence and include case reports, case series, cross-sectional studies, and ecological studies. Analytical studies establish associations between exposures and outcomes, and include case-control and cohort studies. Experimental studies, like clinical trials, determine exposure through a controlled process to study effects over time. Randomized controlled trials are considered the ideal method to identify appropriate treatments.
The document provides an overview of environmental health topics including:
- Current issues like pollution, population growth, and poverty impacting the environment.
- Definitions of key terms like environmental health, ecology, and carrying capacity.
- Historical population trends and future projections showing continued growth.
- Career opportunities in the environmental health field such as toxicology, food safety, and vector control.
TB is one of the oldest and most important infectious diseases globally. It infects one third of the world's population and kills over 3 million people annually. While TB rates declined in developed nations due to improved living standards, infection and mortality rates are increasing worldwide due to factors such as aging populations, increased travel and migration, rising drug resistance, and the interaction of TB with HIV/AIDS. Key vulnerable groups include the malnourished, elderly, poor, migrants, and those with conditions like HIV that weaken the immune system.
This document provides an introduction to demography and population studies. It defines key terminology like population, demography, and habitat. It discusses the components of population studies including changes in size, composition, and distribution. It also covers population theories like Malthusian and Marxist theories. The document explains demographic transition theory and how populations progress through 5 stages. It demonstrates how to construct a population pyramid and analyze population age and sex structures. Finally, it discusses demographic methods and measurements like vital registration systems and how demographic data is collected and analyzed.
Community Nursing [Autosaved..] (1).pptxaasthasubedi3
This document provides an overview of community health nursing. It defines a community as a group of people living together with common characteristics or interests. Community health refers to the health status and problems affecting the members of a community, as well as the total health care provided. The document then discusses the history and evolution of perspectives on community health, from an empirical era focused on symptoms to a current political era emphasizing health for all. It also outlines the stages of disease history in human communities from hunting/gathering to present industrialized societies.
Public Health: Developed as a discipline in the mid 19th century in UK, Europe and US. Concerned more with national issues.
Data and evidence to support action, focus on populations, social justice and equity, emphasis on preventions vs cure.
What is global health?
Health problems, issues, and concerns that transcend national boundaries, which may be influenced by circumstances or experiences in other countries, and which are best addressed by cooperative actions and solutions (Institute Of Medicine, USA- 1997)
International Health: Developed during past decades, came to be more concerned with
the diseases (e.g. tropical diseases) and
conditions (war, natural disasters) of middle and low income countries.
Tended to denote a one way flow of ‘good ideas’.
Global Health: More recent in its origin and emphasises a greater scope of health problems and solutions
that transcend national boundaries
requiring greater inter-disciplinary approach
The document discusses the epidemiological transition theory which describes how patterns of disease and mortality have changed over time. It outlines the major stages of transition from the Age of Pestilence and Famine characterized by infectious diseases, to the Age of Receding Pandemics where death rates decreased due to improved sanitation and hygiene, to the current Age of Degenerative Diseases where chronic diseases have replaced infectious diseases as the major causes of death. The stages are linked to social and economic development as well as advances in public health.
My Own Demography 4 Demographic transition.pptxMUHAMMAD UMAIR
1. Population is growing fast in developing countries that are in the early stages of the demographic transition, where death rates are falling due to improved healthcare and sanitation but birth rates remain high.
2. Areas growing fastest are developing regions of Africa, Asia, and Latin America that have not yet experienced a substantial decline in birth rates associated with industrialization and rising incomes.
3. Rapid population growth in these areas is straining social systems like education and healthcare and increasing environmental pressures as more resources are needed to support larger populations.
The document discusses population and its distribution across the world. It begins by introducing key concepts like population density and factors influencing population distribution. It then covers three main topics: 1) The historical development of the world's population from slow growth to rapid increases due to declining mortality rates. 2) The uneven distribution of population globally, with dense areas in services/industry and sparse areas like deserts and rainforests. 3) Natural population movements defined by birth and mortality rates, with developing areas having high birth rates and developed areas having lower rates and increased life expectancy.
This document discusses key topics related to human population, including:
- China's one-child policy case study and its unintended consequences
- Global population is projected to reach 8 billion and counting, with most growth occurring in developing nations
- Demographic factors like birth and death rates, age structure, and sex ratios affect population change
- Family planning and empowering women reduces fertility rates and slows population growth
- Poverty and high population growth are correlated and exacerbate each other's negative effects
This document reviews the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions and assesses their relevance for describing population health patterns in Africa over the past 60 years. It finds that while these frameworks provided useful descriptions of trends in Western Europe and North America, they are incomplete or irrelevant for characterizing Africa's experiences. Africa remains the furthest behind in health improvements and longevity. The review identifies discontinuities and interruptions in African mortality, morbidity, and disease trends due to fragility, instability, and individual/population vulnerabilities on the continent. It concludes that the social, economic, political and cultural contexts in Africa relate to health in ways not fully captured by prevailing transition frameworks. A new perspective is needed to understand population health changes
This document reviews the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions and assesses their relevance for describing population health patterns in Africa over the past 60 years. It finds that while these frameworks provided useful descriptions of trends in Western Europe and North America, they are incomplete or irrelevant for charting population health experiences in Africa. Africa remains the furthest behind in health improvements and longevity. The frameworks do not adequately capture the impact of events like HIV/AIDS, wars, and fragility in African countries that have disrupted mortality trends. New perspectives are needed to understand population health changes in the diverse African context.
This is the 10th lesson of the course 'Poverty and Environment ' taught at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
This document provides an introduction to public health, including definitions of key terms, the history and evolution of public health, and the core functions and approaches of public health. It defines public health as organized community efforts to prevent disease and promote health. Key points include:
- Public health aims to provide maximum health benefits to the largest number of people through community-wide prevention efforts, in contrast to medicine which focuses on treating individuals.
- Major milestones in the history of public health include advances in sanitation and hygiene in ancient Greece and Rome, the germ theory of disease in the 19th century, and the establishment of public health systems and agencies in the 19th-20th centuries.
- The
Similar to 33449613-Matthews-INDEPTH-Transitions-Pres-20100623 (20)
1. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Theories of demographic and epidemiologic
transitions in the developing world
A brief literature review
Greg Matthews
University of Washington
Department of Sociology and
Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology
INDEPTH Network Mortality Workshop
21-25 June, 2010
1
2. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Purpose
This presentation is motivated by the work beginning on the
INDEPTH project on transitions in the developing world.
The purpose of this talk is to set a baseline of knowledge about
demographic and epidemiologic transitions through a brief literature
review.
I will also suggest a tool for managing literature and citations, and
share an incomplete literature on the subject.
2
3. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Background
• A demographic transition is a process by which a population
shifts from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels of
mortality and fertility.
• Populations in Europe, North America, and parts of South
America and Asia have completed demographic transitions.
• Most of the developing world has begun demographic transitions.
• Developing-world populations appear to have more diverse levels
of mortality and fertility. They also appear to be taking different
routes along the way to low-fertility, low-mortality regimes.
3
4. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Background
• Related to the demographic transition is the epidemiologic
transition.
• Epi transition theory poses that during the shift from high to low
mortality, the most prominent causes of death shift from causes
related to infectious disease to causes related to
non-communicable disease (NCD).
• This transition is also occuring in developing-world populations.
However, a resurgence in infectious disease, mainly HIV and
tuberculosis, has left some populations with a double-burden of
infectious and NCDs.
• For these reasons, the current epidemiologic and demographic
conditions in Africa and Asia appear unique in world history.
4
5. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Background
These general observations quickly lead to many important questions
that will be studied here:
• How are mortality, fertility, and epidemiology changing in the
developing world?
• How are these changes different from those in historic transitions
and the propositions of transition theories?
• What are the implications of current trends for our transition
theories?
• What are the implications for societies?
5
6. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Demographic transitions
• Beginning in the mid-20th century, demographers noted that
different populations had different rates of birth and death.
• They theorized that modernization and development led to
reduced mortality, and after a lag period, also reduced fertility.
• During the lag between mortality reduction and fertility
reduction, population grows quickly .
• This is famously the demographic transition theory.
6
7. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Demographic transitions
7
8. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Demographic transitions
• As more populations transitioned, and more data were analyzed,
it became clear that there is no single cause of all transitions
(Mason 1997).
• However, they are generally thought to be spurred by the social
and economic changes associated with the processes of:
• development/modernization,
• urbanization, and
• expanded education.
8
9. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Mortality
Causes of historic mortality declines were:
• Improvements in the standard of living
• Changes in hygeine and sanitation (public health; personal
cleanliness)
• Improved medical knowledge and technology (vaccinations,
antibiotics, surgery...)
• Decreased virulence of some micro-organisms (Scarlet Fever)
The relative contributions of these causes depend on the historic
setting and timing of the mortality decline.
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10. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Epidemiological transitions
CONTRIBUTIONS OF CAUSES OF DEATH TO MORTALITY
DECLINE IN ENGLAND AND WALES, 1848-54 TO 1971
CAUSE OF DEATH % OF REDUCTION DUE TO CAUSE
I. Airborne Diseases 40.3 [32% before 1901]
Tuberculosis 17.5
Bronchitis/Pneumonia/Influenza 9.9
Scarlet Fever 6.2
II. Water- and Food-Borne Diseases 21.4 [46% before 1901]
Cholera, Diarrhea, Dysentery 10.8
Typhoid, Typhus 6.0
Tuberculosis (non-respiratory) 4.6
III. Other Disease Due to Micro-organisms 12.6 [35% before 1901]
Convulsions/Teething 8.0
Syphilis .3
Puerperal Fever .4
Other Infections 3.5
IV. Conditions Not Attributable to
Micro-Organisms 25.6 [10% before 1901]
Prematurity, Immaturity, Other Diseases 6.2
Old Age 8.7
Other Diseases of Digestive System 3.6
Violence 2.5
Source: Thomas McKeown, 1976. The Modern Rise of Population. New York: Academic
Press. Table 3.2, p. 55.
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11. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Decline in age-specific mortality rate
Source: Human Mortality Database. www.mortality.org
11
12. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Decline in age-specific mortality rate, logged
Source: Human Mortality Database. www.mortality.org
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13. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Epidemiological transitions
Age groups that benefitted most in epi. transition were
• Infants (0-1) and
• Young children (1-4), and later
• Older adults.
because the most prominent causes of death for those groups were
controlled during the transition.
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14. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Fertility
Generally (though there are exceptions), fertility in the developed
world declined after a period of population growth that was a
consequence of mortality declines.
Hypothesized causal factors:
• Industrialization
• Expanded education
• Urbanization
• Reduced child and infant mortality
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15. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Fertility
Industrialization
• Changes in family economy
• Implications for women and children
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16. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Fertility
Expanded education
• First Generation Effects
• Reduced labor input for children
• Trade off quantity for quality
• Second Generation Effects
• Broadened world view
• Competition with parenthood
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17. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Fertility
Urbanization
• Increased cost of housing
• Rise of consumerism
• Reduced labor input from children
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18. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Fertility
Reduced infant and child mortality
• “Insurance” or “hoarding” behavior: In high-mortality settings,
having extra children is rational to ensure the desired family size
is met. This behavior might be stopped after a mortality decline.
• “Replacement” behavior: Fewer child deaths lead to fewer
replacement births and a smaller TFR.
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19. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Historic transitions
Summary
• Observations of historic transitions gave rise to Demographic
Transition Theory
• DTT has many challenges but general idea works in aggregate of
historic transitions
• Epidemiologic Transition Theory is also based on historic
transition: Deaths due to infectious disease are reduced and
deaths due to NCDs become more prominent as mortality falls
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20. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Mortality
• The developing world experienced tremendous reductions in
mortality over the 20th century.
• Like in the developed world, a mix of causes are responsible:
Improvements in standard of living, improved hygeine and
sanitation, and medical treatments.
• It appears that the contributions of each cause are quite different
in the developing world.
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21. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Life expectancy at birth
Source: United Nations, 2006
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22. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Infant mortality rate
Source: United Nations, 2006
22
23. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Development and life expectancy at birth
Source: Preston, S.H. 1975. The changing relation of mortality and economic
development. Population Studies 29(2).
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24. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Mortality
• There were large gains in life expectancy in areas with low levels
of development.
• Factors other than income probably account for 75-90 percent of
gains in life expectancy; income growth accounts for only 10-25
percent.
• Improvements in mortality were related to exported technology,
so that countries could make progress even at levels of
development lower than developed countries had at the same
point in their mortality transition.
24
25. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Mortality
Country Life expectancy GNI/capita % employed in
agriculture
Secondary
school enroll-
ment
Syria 73 $3,740 – 38
Iran 70 $8,050 23 71
Venezuela 73 $6,550 11 22
Tunisia 73 $7,900 – –
Malaysia 74 $10,340 19 –
U.S. 1976 73 $41,340 3.8 85-90
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26. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Fertility
• Fast population growth in developing world with mortality
declines.
• Birth rates in much of Asia and Latin America have fallen since
the 1970s.
• Sub-Saharan Africa had higher pre-transition birth rates that
have begun to fall recently but are still much higher than most of
the world.
• In Africa recently, there is debate over the possibility of a stall in
the fertility decline.
26
27. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Crude birth rates
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27
28. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Comparing new and old fertility transitions
Differences between Europe and developing world in pre-transition
fertility
• Developing countries generally have higher rates of fertility than
pre-transition Europe.
• Differences in the institutional system of the family
• Differences in importance of particular intermediate variables (i.e.
marriage rates, age at marriage, breastfeeding practices,
contraceptive use, etc.)
• New international system brings pressure on households in
developing world (i.e. colonial history, family planning programs,
government aid programs)
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29. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Fertility
Criticisms of Demographic Transition Theory in the developing world
• Weak correlations between levels of urbanization or
industrialization and timing of beginning fertility decline
(Bongaarts and Watkins 1996).
• Several countries in Asia and Latin America began fertility
declines while agrarian and underdeveloped.
29
30. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Fertility
Some variables to consider in developing-world fertility changes:
• Family patterns (age at marriage, nuclear or extended families)
• Socioeconomic development
• Education, especially for women
• Family planning
• Receptivity of culture
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31. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Fertility
Caldwell’s theory of wealth flows (1982)
• Family nucleation caused by economic or cultural forces.
• Children, not parents, become economic beneficiaries of family
life.
• Changes in relations of authority and obligation.
• In this way “wealth flows” from parents to children rather than
the other direction.
• Perhaps most applicable to sub-Saharan Africa.
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32. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Epidemiologic transitions
DISEASES RESPONSIBLE FOR LDC MORTALITY DECLINES,
1900-1970
CAUSE OF DEATH % OF REDUCTION DUE TO CAUSE
I. Airborne Diseases 45%
Bronchitis/Pneumonia/Influenza 30
Respiratory Tuberculosis 10
Smallpox 2
Measles 1
Diphtheria/Whooping Cough 2
II. Water-, Food-, and Fecesborne Diseases 9%
Diarrhea, Enteritis, Gastroenteritis 7
Typhoid 1
Cholera 1
III. Insectborne 15-35%
Malaria 13-33
Typhus 1
Plague 1
Source: Samuel H. Preston. 1980. “Causes and Consequences of Mortality Declines in
Less Developed Countries.” Pp. 289-360 in Richard A. Easterlin (ed.) Population and
Economic Change in Developing Countries. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Table 5.3
32
33. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Epidemiologic transitions
• Success in management of many infectious diseases
• Reductions in insect-borne diseases, respiratory airborne diseases
• In some places, these advances have been reversed
• Increases in deaths due to NCDs
• With all these changes going on, layer on top of it all the HIV
epidemic and its many effects on mortality and fertility
33
34. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
HIV
• HIV epidemics appear to have had a dramatic impact on
mortality and fertility in parts of the developing world, especially
in sub-Saharan Africa.
• In places suffering HIV epidemics, the epidemiological transition
toward NCDs is already occurring.
• The surge in communicable diseases (HIV, TB, etc.) add another
layer of morbidity and mortality on to the transition to NCDs.
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35. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
HIV and theory
DTT postulates that fertility declines as a result of declining child
mortality.
Example
Caldwell et. al. (1992) observed the first declines in African fertility
(in Botswana, Kenya and Zimbabwe) were in the only places with
levels of infant mortality lower than 70 per 1,000.
How will HIV epidemics affect fertility?
35
36. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
HIV and fertility
• Increased child mortality could increase fertility:
• May lead to replacement or insurance fertility behavior.
• Reduces duration of breastfeeding, ending breastfeeding’s
contraceptive effect (perhaps not an important factor for parents
with HIV).
• Increased adult mortality could decrease fertility:
• May reduce prospective parents’ expectations of long-term
benefits of children.
• May reduce household income.
• Increased number of orphans require resources from relatives or
other caretakers.
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37. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
HIV and fertility
• Other factors related to HIV that could increase fertility:
• Efforts to reduce STD transmission may reduce pathological
sterility.
• Reduced breastfeeding (to prevent mother-to-child transmission)
could reduce inter-birth interval.
• Other factors related to HIV that could decrease fertility:
• Infected women may be less fertile due to illness, due to other
STDs, increased use of contraception, widowhood, and increased
resort to abortion.
• Use of condoms may increase as response to epidemic. (May also
have small positive effect on fertility if condoms replace more
effective methods of birth control.)
• Delayed age at marriage.
• Increased monogamy.
• Increased celibacy.
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38. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Transitions in the developing world
Summary
• Mortality transitions encouraged by imported technology, control
of infectious disease
• Beginnings of epi transition observed in higher rates of NCDs
• For some populations, resurgence of infectious diseases plus HIV
epidemic have reversed previous gains in life expectancy
• HIV epidemics have a very complex and multifaceted impact on
mortality and fertility processes
38
39. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for theory
The transition theories outlined above are mainly based on historical
transitions. Their utility in explaining current transitions can be
questioned.
• Are developing-world transitions, especially in the era of
HIV/AIDS, fundamentally different from historical transitions
that they need a new theory?
• Or can classic theories accomodate modern transitions by
adjusting their claims?
39
40. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for theory
Social science relies on theory to make sense of empirical observations
and to relate similar processes across regions of the world.
If the foundational models of transitions can not be applied to parts of
Africa and Asia, population scientists will struggle to explain current
observations and to postulate population dynamics in the future.
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41. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for theory
More specifically...
Transitions in these sites need to be documented to first of all test the
hypotheses of transition theories.
• How do changes in mortality affect changes in fertility?
• How does the cause-of-death profile change as mortality declines?
• How is HIV/AIDS affecting these trends?
41
42. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for society
Many aspects of society are impacted by demographic and
epidemiologic transitions. Here are five areas that this work may focus
on.
• Age composition
• Gender
• Fertility decisions
• Family structure
• Health services
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43. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for society
Age composition
• HIV mortality and morbidity remove working-age adults from the
population (anti-retroviral treatments may add productive years
of life)
• Reductions in infectious disease increase survival for young
children
• NCD mortality and morbidity affect adults and older adults
43
44. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for society
Gender
• How do transitions impact gender relations?
• Women’s employment and education
• Family and household relationships
• HIV impacts sex ratio: sex ratio weighted toward males at young
adult ages, toward females at older ages.
44
45. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for society
Fertility decisions
• How does increasing child and adult mortality affect fertility
decision-making?
• Children who have HIV are infected by maternal transmission.
Mothers with HIV have fewer children because of illness. This
reduces the likelihood of replacement behavior.
• Possibility of insurance behavior in the community, as others
families see children dying.
45
46. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for society
Family structure
• HIV leads to more single orphans and some double orphans.
• Extended families become caretakers.
• Rise in NCDs requires caretaking of older family members
46
47. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Implications for society
Health services
• In sub-Saharan Africa, services mainly developed to treat
infectious diseases.
• Problems meeting needs of patients requiring chronic care.
• Treatment of HIV (ARTs) and NCDs require long-term chronic
care .
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48. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Literature
• Saved folder of PDFs of journal articles
• Can share that literature here
• Also able to share online
48
49. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Citation management
• Mendeley: www.mendeley.com
• Free
• Save articles as attachments to bibliographic records
• Create libraries and export citations
• Social networking feature
49
50. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Mendeley
Demonstration
50
51. Background Historic transitions Developing-world transitions Theory Society Literature and citations
Contact
Greg Matthews:
gmm06@uw.edu
51