Presented at the Google AppSummit in Dublin on Wednesday, June 21st, 2017

1. 3 Tactics for
UA Success in
2017 & 2018
Eric Benjamin Seufert
Google AppSummit
June 20th, 2017

2. Who I am
Heracles Mobile Dev Memo Freemium EconomicsAgamemnon

3. Who I am

4. Presentation Structure

5. Presentation Structure
Strategic growth tactics for 2017
& 2018:
- Make Video Work;
- Ignore the Noise;
- Attribute & Model.

6. Tactic 1:
Make Video Work

7. • Increased consumer engagement / spending on
mobile continues to drive advertising budgets;
Make Video Work

8. • Increased consumer engagement / spending on
mobile continues to drive advertising budgets;
• Video is the ascendant content format on
mobile.
Make Video Work

9. Source: SensorTower
Make Video Work

10. Source: SensorTower / Unity
*Applies specifically to mobile gaming
Make Video Work

11. Source: eMarketer
Make Video Work

12. Source: eMarketer
Source: Zenith
Make Video Work

13. Source: eMarketer
Make Video Work

14. Source: eMarketer
Make Video Work

15. Make Video Work

16. Make Video Work

17. Make Video Work

18. • If your app isn’t conducive to video distribution (ads /
otherwise), you can’t distribute your app;
Make Video Work

19. • If your app isn’t conducive to video distribution (ads /
otherwise), you can’t distribute your app;
• Build things that look good in video. Develop a video ad
strategy. Invest in attractive video ads.
Make Video Work

20. Tactic 2:
Ignore the Noise

21. When every device is connected, every device appears to
be a platform on which to develop & reach a new
audience:
Ignore the Noise

22. When every device is connected, every device appears to
be a platform on which to develop & reach a new
audience:
Ignore the Noise

23. • Tech media sometimes uncritically promotes all
emerging platforms as ascendant “next big thing”;
Ignore the Noise

24. • Tech media sometimes uncritically promotes all
emerging platforms as ascendant “next big thing”;
Ignore the Noise

25. • Tech media sometimes uncritically promotes all
emerging platforms as ascendant “next big thing”;
• New platforms are appealing (first mover advantage,
lack of price discovery, etc.) but developers need to be
able to discern hype & time deployment correctly.
Ignore the Noise

26. • Example: VR vs. Mobile Gaming
Source: SensorTower / Unity
Ignore the Noise

27. Tactic 3:
Attribute & Model

28. Attribute & Model
• Many developers rely on patchwork
marketing infrastructure comprised of many
3rd party tools:

29. Data Warehouse
(S3, etc.)
Data Visualization
Tool (Tableau,
etc.)
Attribution
Platform
Ad Network Cost
Aggregation
Platform
Ad Networks
N1
N2
N3
PMD
Attribute & Model

30. Data Warehouse
(S3, etc.)
Data Visualization
Tool (Tableau,
etc.)
Attribution
Platform
Ad Network Cost
Aggregation
Platform
Ad Networks
N1
N2
N3
PMD
Marketing Team
Attribute & Model

31. Data Warehouse
(S3, etc.)
Data Visualization
Tool (Tableau,
etc.)
Attribution
Platform
Ad Network Cost
Aggregation
Platform
Ad Networks
N1
N2
N3
PMD
Marketing Team
Attribute & Model

32. • Shifting to video complicates this further
because clicks / installs aren’t attributable;
Attribute & Model

33. • Shifting to video complicates this further
because clicks / installs aren’t attributable;
• Formats such as Facebook Live / Influencer
Campaigns can be totally contextual;
Attribute & Model

34. • Shifting to video complicates this further
because clicks / installs aren’t attributable;
• Formats such as Facebook Live / Influencer
Campaigns can be totally contextual;
• Probabilistic models help advertisers match
clicks / installs to campaigns.
Attribute & Model

35. • The biggest mobile advertising platforms are
becoming siloed, both in terms of tool offerings
and inventory offerings;
Attribute & Model

36. Existing / Old
Paradigm:
Inventory
Pool
Mobile Gaming
Advertisers
Mobile Commerce
Advertisers
Dating App
Advertisers
Mobile Gaming
Publishers
Dating App
Publishers
Mobile Commerce
Publishers
Ad Networks /
Native Inventory Sources
Attribute & Model

37. Emerging
Paradigm:
Mobile Gaming
Advertisers
Mobile Gaming
Publishers
Dating App
Advertisers
Dating App
Publishers
Mobile Commerce
Advertisers
Mobile Commerce
Publishers
& travel, etc.
Brand Advertisers
& travel, etc.
Retail Advertisers
Attribute & Model

38. • The biggest mobile advertising platforms are
becoming siloed, both in terms of tool offerings
and inventory offerings;
• Owned inventory platforms have created
vertical-specific inventory pools;
Attribute & Model

39. Ad Networks /
Exchanges
Owned Inventory
● Retail;
● Brand;
● Mobile
commerce;
● High-LTV /
High-CTR
Games.
● Intent-based
advertising
(travel,
in-store
retail).
● Brand;
● Youth-oriented
retail;
● Entertainment.
● Games;
● Finance
Attribute & Model

40. • If you’re operating under a “MEASURE
EVERYTHING” mentality, you’ve lost the plot:
Attribute & Model

41. • If you’re operating under a “MEASURE
EVERYTHING” mentality, you’ve lost the plot:
– The newest ad inventory generally isn’t
measurable;
Attribute & Model

42. • If you’re operating under a “MEASURE
EVERYTHING” mentality, you’ve lost the plot:
– The newest ad inventory generally isn’t
measurable;
– There’s no such thing as “exact”.
Attribute & Model

43. Performance Marketing != “Direct Response”
Attribute & Model

44. Performance Marketing != “Direct Response”
• Your entire job as a performance marketer is to
figure out the value of various traffic sources;
Attribute & Model

45. Performance Marketing != “Direct Response”
• Your entire job as a performance marketer is to
figure out the value of various traffic sources;
• If you can only do that via attribution platforms,
what is your value?
Attribute & Model

46. Attribute & Model
• What’s the LTV of this cohort?

47. Attribute & Model
• What’s the LTV of this cohort?
– Plenty of resources available online, including:
http://mobiledevmemo.com/two-methods-
modeling-ltv-spreadsheet/

48. Attribute & Model
• What’s the LTV of this cohort?
– Plenty of resources available online, including:
http://mobiledevmemo.com/two-methods-
modeling-ltv-spreadsheet/
- More important than the LTV model is the
overall profitability model; how does money
out > money in?

49. Attribute & Model
Ineffective / low scale performance marketing
setup:
Marketing Team
DR Traffic
Sources
Attribution &
Proprietary
Analytics
$
LTV Model

50. Attribute & Model
Ineffective / low scale performance marketing
setup:
Marketing Team
DR Traffic
Sources
Attribution &
Proprietary
Analytics
$
LTV Model
1) This doesn’t scale beyond DR;

51. Attribute & Model
Ineffective / low scale performance marketing
setup:
Marketing Team
DR Traffic
Sources
Attribution &
Proprietary
Analytics
$
LTV Model
1) This doesn’t scale beyond DR;
2) You’re competing with Machine
Zone!;

52. Attribute & Model
Ineffective / low scale performance marketing
setup:
Marketing Team
DR Traffic
Sources
Attribution &
Proprietary
Analytics
$
LTV Model
1) This doesn’t scale beyond DR;
2) You’re competing with Machine
Zone!;
3) What am I paying this person for?

53. Attribute & Model
Ineffective / low scale performance marketing
setup:
Marketing Team
DR Traffic
Sources
Attribution &
Proprietary
Analytics
$
LTV Model
1) This doesn’t scale beyond DR;
2) You’re competing with Machine
Zone!;
3) What am I paying this person for?

54. Attribute & Model
True Performance Marketing on Mobile:
Marketing Team
Traffic Portfolio
DR Traffic Sources
TV / OOH
Influencer
Experimental New Channels
Robust
Revenue Model
that
Accommodates
Uncertainty
$

55. Attribute & Model
• Attribution is important, but discrete,
deterministic attribution isn’t necessary;

56. Attribute & Model
• Attribution is important, but discrete,
deterministic attribution isn’t necessary;
• Generally understanding (& modeling) value is
more important than attribution;

57. Attribute & Model
• Attribution is important, but discrete,
deterministic attribution isn’t necessary;
• Generally understanding (& modeling) value is
more important than attribution;
• The DR market is most saturated and
competitive; winners enter quickly & exploit new
channels.

58. http://hrcls.co
eric@hrcls.co
@eric_seufert
Thank You!