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Eric Seufert - 5 Mobile Gaming Trends 2015 - PwC Outlook Conference October 2014

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5 Trends in Mobile Gaming for 2015

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Eric Seufert - 5 Mobile Gaming Trends 2015 - PwC Outlook Conference October 2014

  1. 1. 5 Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 (and beyond) Eric Seufert PwC Outlook Conference, Amsterdam October 9, 2014
  2. 2. Who am I?
  3. 3. Who am I? Freemium Economics
  4. 4. Who am I? Freemium Economics Head of Marketing at Wooga
  5. 5. Who am I? Freemium Economics Head of Marketing at Wooga Mobile Dev Memo
  6. 6. Where are we now?
  7. 7. Where are we now? • 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US / iPhone) published by 2 devs Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
  8. 8. Where are we now? • 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US / iPhone) published by 2 devs • 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are games Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
  9. 9. Where are we now? • 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US / iPhone) published by 2 devs • 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are games • 8/10 Top Grossing apps were first published in 2012 or earlier (Game of War and Farm Heroes Saga were first published in 2013) Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
  10. 10. Where are we now? • 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US / iPhone) published by 2 devs • 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are games • 8/10 Top Grossing apps were first published in 2012 or earlier (Game of War and Farm Heroes Saga were first published in 2013) • Supercell (Clash of Clans, Hay Day) and King (Candy Crush Saga, Farm Heroes Saga) spend (reportedly) $1MM per day on marketing* *http://mobiledevmemo.com/brand-advertising-mobile-cpi-prices/ Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
  11. 11. Where are we now? Four companies own apps that generate 70% of the unique visitors to the Top 25 mobile apps* *http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/
  12. 12. Where are we now? Most smartphone users download 0 new apps per month* *http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/
  13. 13. Where are we now? Nearly half of all time spent in mobile apps is devoted to users’ single favorite apps* *http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/
  14. 14. Where are we now? Brand advertisers are spending just 20% of their budgets on mobile now and will increase that share to 35% by 2018* *http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/
  15. 15. Where are we now? VC funding into the gaming sector is down by 6% in H1 2014 against the 2013 run rate* *http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/
  16. 16. Where are we now? Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions* *http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
  17. 17. Where are we now? Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions* *http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
  18. 18. Where are we now? Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions* *http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
  19. 19. Where are we now? Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions* *http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
  20. 20. Where are we now? Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions* “ “ -- Facebook 10Q, Q2 2014 *http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
  21. 21. But…it’s not all bad.
  22. 22. But…it’s not all bad. Mobile is growing: 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 Smartphone Shipments, 2013 vs. 2017 China USA UK Japan Brazil India Others Total 2013 Shipments 2017 Shipments Source: IDC
  23. 23. But…it’s not all bad. Mobile gaming is growing: Source: Gartner Mobile Gaming Revenues ($BB), Worldwide $9.280 $13.208 $17.146 $22.009 $25.000 $20.000 $15.000 $10.000 $5.000 $- 2012 2013 2014 2015
  24. 24. But…it’s not all bad. Consumers have come to terms with mobile ads: Source: xAd / Telmetrics
  25. 25. Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond 1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format 2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation 3. Increasing overall monetization 4. Increasing platform “lock in” 5. More franchise tie-ins
  26. 26. Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond 1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format 2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation 3. Increasing overall monetization 4. Increasing platform “lock in” 5. More franchise tie-ins
  27. 27. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
  28. 28. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
  29. 29. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format • Infrastructure of mobile advertising ecosystem designed for mobile gaming. New verticals are beginning to shift into mobile advertising • Brand money; • Travel (20% YoY increase in mobile travel bookings H1 2013-2014*). *http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/
  30. 30. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format • Retargeting and deep-linking allow for better and more natural ad formats than traditional mobile app install ad:
  31. 31. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format • Native ads are less intrusive and context-aware:
  32. 32. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format • Imaginative new ad formats will obfuscate / abstract away the advertising dynamic: • TinyLoot: paying users to watch ads and engage with new apps; • LoopMe: users rate ads and only see ad types they enjoy.
  33. 33. Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond 1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format 2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation 3. Increasing overall monetization 4. Increasing platform “lock in” 5. More franchise tie-ins
  34. 34. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
  35. 35. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation Top 10 Downloaded Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
  36. 36. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation • 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook • Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp (#14)
  37. 37. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation • 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook • Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp (#14) • 3 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by Google • YouTube (#5), Google Maps (#15), Google Utilities (#16)
  38. 38. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation • 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook • Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp (#14) • 3 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by Google • YouTube (#5), Google Maps (#15), Google Utilities (#16) • 5 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by companies that can move users into mobile from their massive existing user bases • Pandora • Pinterest • Spotify • Twitter • iTunes U
  39. 39. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation • Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart
  40. 40. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation • Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart • Chart positions that were previously capable of being “acquired” via advertising are now occupied by these apps, causing “chart position inflation”
  41. 41. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation • Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart • Chart positions that were previously capable of being “acquired” via advertising are now occupied by these apps, causing “chart position inflation” • Eg. Facebook raised number of downloads needed to reach #1 with messenger. Previous amount of downloads needed only reaches #2 now.
  42. 42. Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond 1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format 2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation 3. Increasing overall monetization 4. Increasing platform “lock in” 5. More franchise tie-ins
  43. 43. Increasing overall monetization
  44. 44. Increasing overall monetization • Tablet shipments are slipping: Source: Monthly TFT LCD Shipment Database
  45. 45. Increasing overall monetization • Meanwhile, “phablet” shipments are rising and may overtake both smartphone and tablet shipments Source: BI Intelligence
  46. 46. Increasing overall monetization • This is a good thing for app developers; users spend more money on bigger screens. Source: Distimo
  47. 47. Increasing overall monetization • Meanwhile, CPMs are trending up…which means more revenue from ads. Source: Fiksu
  48. 48. Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond 1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format 2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation 3. Increasing overall monetization 4. Increasing platform “lock in” 5. More franchise tie-ins
  49. 49. Increasing Platform “Lock In”
  50. 50. Increasing Platform “Lock In” • Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked into proprietary tool chain • Apple’s upcoming iTunes analytics suite
  51. 51. Increasing Platform “Lock In” • Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked into proprietary tool chain • Facebook’s Parse + Audience Network + Atlas
  52. 52. Increasing Platform “Lock In” • Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked into proprietary tool chain • Twitter analytics + app development platform (Fabric)
  53. 53. Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond 1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format 2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation 3. Increasing overall monetization 4. Increasing platform “lock in” 5. More franchise tie-ins
  54. 54. More Franchise Tie-ins
  55. 55. More Franchise Tie-ins • Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
  56. 56. More Franchise Tie-ins • Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
  57. 57. More Franchise Tie-ins • Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
  58. 58. More Franchise Tie-ins • Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
  59. 59. More Franchise Tie-ins • Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
  60. 60. Thanks! • eric@mobiledevmemo.com • Mobiledevmemo.com • Twitter.com/eric_seufert

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