Using (Free!) App Annie data to optimize your next game

1. Using (Free!) AppAnnie Data to Optimize Your Next Game Eric Benjamin Seufert Heracles

2. WHO AM I? Partner, Heracles Owner, Mobile Dev Memo Author, Freemium Economics

3. YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

4. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS; YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

5. US MOBILE AD SPEND: 2015: $32BN 2016: $44BN 2017: $53BN 2018: $61BN 2019: $69BN 2020: $77BN

6. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS; • YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY WELL OR 2) HAVE MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS; YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

7. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS; • YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY WELL OR HAS MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS; • MAKING GAMES IS EXPENSIVE. IF YOU DEVELOP & RELEASE THE WRONG GAME, MASSIVE LOSS. YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

8. HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

9. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

10. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: 1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME? HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

11. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: 1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME? 2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE? HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

12. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: 1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME? 2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE? 3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME? HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

13. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: 1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME? 2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE? 3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME? 4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL? HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

14. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: 1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME? 2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE? 3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME? 4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL? 5. WILL THEY RESPOND TO THIS GAME’S ADS? HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

15. THE SOONER YOU CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS, THE LESS RISK YOU BEAR! HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

16. DEVELOPMENT CYCLE CONCEPT STAGE SOFT LAUNCH GLOBAL LAUNCH $ $$ $$$ VETTING A GAME: THREE OPTIONS RISK / SUNK DEVELOPMENT COSTS

17. WHAT DOES AN OPPORTUNITY LOOK LIKE?

18. TOPGROSSINGCHART 100 50 20 “BASIC” UA SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING

19. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART 100 50 20 “BASIC” UA SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION Massive developer with huge balance sheet

21. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART 100 50 20 “BASIC” UA SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION Large developer, usually operating big portfolio Massive developer with huge balance sheet

23. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART 100 50 20 “BASIC” UA SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION Developer successfully scaling viable game Massive developer with huge balance sheet Large developer, usually operating big portfolio

25. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART 100 50 20 “BASIC” UA SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION Small developer with great game Massive developer with huge balance sheet Large developer, usually operating big portfolio Developer successfully scaling viable game

27. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART 100 50 20 “BASIC” UA SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION Large developer, usually operating big portfolio Massive developer with huge balance sheet Developer successfully scaling viable game Small developer with great game

28. FILLING IN THE MATRIX Could fill it in by hand based on intuition... MALE FEMALE MASS APPEAL NICHE APPEAL

29. MALE FEMALE MASS APPEAL NICHE APPEAL FILLING IN THE MATRIX Could fill it in by hand based on intuition...

30. MALE FEMALE MASS APPEAL NICHE APPEAL FILLING IN THE MATRIX ...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

31. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS: FILLING IN THE MATRIX ...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

32. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS: • Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking for games with long lifetimes; FILLING IN THE MATRIX ...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

33. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS: • Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking for games with long lifetimes; • Very likely to focus on one point in time, when in reality we want to see the app’s trend in grossing (viability = ability to reinvest into marketing). FILLING IN THE MATRIX ...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

34. A BETTER APPROACH

35. A BETTER APPROACH USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.

36. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART. OPPORTUNITY FORMULA: A BETTER APPROACH

37. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART. OPPORTUNITY FORMULA: 1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR; A BETTER APPROACH

38. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART. OPPORTUNITY FORMULA: 1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR; 2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10 GROSSING!); A BETTER APPROACH

39. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART. OPPORTUNITY FORMULA: 1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR; 2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10 GROSSING!); 3.ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY IN GROSSING CHART. A BETTER APPROACH

40. CAN BE TAKEN FROM FREE APP ANNIE ACCOUNT (EITHER WRITE A SCRIPT OR HIRE AN INTERN): • 70mb JSON file, 365 days of Top 100 charts; • Number of apps in Top 100 Grossing (US / iPhone) in past 365 days: 355 • Number of excluded developers: 56 • Apps classified as representing “opportunities”: 33 THE DATA

41. SCORING APPROACH: • Use app descriptions to classify M / F (-10 to 10); • Use app icons and screenshots to classify mass / niche appeal; THE DATA

42. FILLING IN THE MATRIX Heat map based on results of analysis MALE FEMALE MASS APPEAL NICHE APPEAL Darkness (color) = grossing trajectory (simple linear regression of grossing values, controlling for # of rankings and r2); Size = density of titles.

43. MALE FEMALE MASS APPEAL NICHE APPEAL FILLING IN THE MATRIX Heat map based on results of analysis

44. WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST Rank Position (US / iPhone) Top Grossing Last 365 Days

45. PEAK GAMES • No games in the Top 20; • 6-person UA team (as per LinkedIn); Didn’t get into Grossing position from brute-force marketing but rather appeal + viable unit economics WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST

46. MALE FEMALE MASS APPEAL NICHE APPEAL WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST

47. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN: TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.

48. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN: • Click ads; TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.

49. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN: • Click ads; • Invite friends; TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.

50. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN: • Click ads; • Invite friends; • Spend money. TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.

51. UP AND TO THE RIGHT

54. CAUTIONARY TALES

55. BIG CELEBRITY CO-BRAND

56. KIDS’ SHOW IP LICENSE

57. MegaBigDeveloperCo’s New Brand Launch

58. WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?

59. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?

60. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY a) Which games are achieving grossing positions without financing marketing from other Top 20 titles? Which audience are they targeting? WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?

61. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY a) Which games are achieving grossing positions without financing marketing from other Top 20 titles? Which audience are they targeting? 2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?

62. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY a) Which games are achieving grossing positions without financing marketing from other Top 20 titles? Which audience are they targeting? 2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT a) Does our game concept capably reach that audience? Will they click on ads? WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?

63. “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

64. “If you know YOUR AUDIENCE and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred LAUNCHES. If you know yourself but not YOUR AUDIENCE, for every RANK gained you will also suffer CPI > LTV. If you know neither YOUR AUDIENCE nor yourself, you will LOSE MONEY in every LAUNCH.”

65. eric@hrcls.co @eric_seufert hrcls.co mobiledevmemo.com THANKS!

Using (Free!) App Annie data to optimize your next game

Eric Seufert

Using (Free!) App Annie data to optimize your next game