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Contre-amiral Enrique
Flores Morado
Direction générale adjointe
d'océanographie, hydrographie et
météorologie, chef et responsable du thème
des sargasses
Plausible scenarios of sargassum
(Sargassum spp.) population based on
satellite-detection and beaching indices.
OIOS – Canada
The sargassum phenomenon is considered a Wicked
problem - problème enchevêtré.
Climatechange
Hemisphere,Periods
of 6-7 decades in the
AtlanticOcean
Northequatorial circulation System
Transatlantic Africa-South America
annual / stational
Currents System in the Caribbean
South America - Caribbean – G. México
Stational /monthly
SubregionalCurrentsSystem
Local/beaches
days/weeks
Dynamic processes inter-connected at different geographic
Scales and times
1
2
3
4
Intertropical convergence
NEC
NECC
Vortex and
retention
Caribbean Current
Transport
North Brazil transport
Current
nutrients
Freshwater flux
nutrients
nutrients
Summer
Winds
Transportation to the Great Caribbean
Relationship?
Caribbeancurrentgeneralpattern
Collection of sargassum in front of the
Moon Palace Hotel
Día
Cantidad de
pastos
(Semaforo)
Condiciones
Climatologicas
Dirección
del Viento
Rachas de
Viento
Especie de
sargazo o
pasto Fase de mayor afectación
Volumen
extraido
m3
Volumen
procesado
m3
Fenomeno
Meteorologico
Reportado Observaciones
1 1 PN E 11-15 SF Sunrise 140 MB
2 2 DLL SE 10-16 SF,TT Sunrise 378 7 MB
3 2 CD SE 17-22 SF,TT Sunrise 63 MB
4 3 CD SE 8-12 SF,TT Sunrise 147 7 MB Thalassia testudinum
5 3 CD SE 7-11 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 105 MB
6 2 CD SE 8-10 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 77 7 MB
7 2 CD NE 4-8 SF,SA Sunrise 21 MB
8 1 CD ESE 11-13 SF Sunrise 21 MB
9 2 CD ESE 8-10 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 133 MB
10 3 PN NE 9-15 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 308 7 MB Syringodium filiforme
11 2 CD NE 15-20 TT,SA Sunrise 189 MA
12 2 CD NE 11-18 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 70 MB
13 2 DLL NE 20-15 TT,SA Sunrise 63 14 MB
14 1 CD NE 11-22 SF,TT Sunrise 35 MB
15 1 CD O 14-18 SF Sunrise 35 MB
16 3 CD SE 5-14 TT,SF,SA Sunrise 245 21 MB
17 3 CD SE 12-15 SA,SF Sunrise 259 MB
18 3 CD SE 15-20 TT,SF,SA 119 MB Sargassum alga
19 2 CD SE 10-20 SF,SA 154 MA
20 2 CD NE 10-22 SF,SA 91 MB
21 2 CD NE 15-18 SF,TT 70 MA
22 3 CD SE 12-16 SA,SF 112 MA
23 2 CD NE 6-14 SF,TT 56 MA
24 3 PN E 7-10 SF,SA 126 MA
25 3 CN E 12-15 SF,SA 175 MB
26 3 CD O 4-12 SF,SA 186 MB
27 3 CD O 10-14 SF,TT 126 MA
28 3 PN NO 12-17 SA,SF 98
29 3 CD SE 16-21 SA,SF 364
30 3 CD SE 10-20 SA,SF 378
31
Volumen total mensual 4344 63
Promedio mensual 144.8
Máximo diario 378
Mínimo diario 21
Etapas del sargazo basadas en la cantidad de Sargazo o Pastos marinos en playa: 1 (0-20%), 2 (20-40%), 3 (40-60%), 4 (60-80%) y 5 (80,100%)
Condiciones climatológicas: Se refiere a cielo despejado (CD), Cielo parcialmente nublado (PN), cielo nublado (CN), Lluvias parciales
Fenómenos meteorológicos reportados: Ciclón tropical (CT), depresión trópical (DT), tormenta tropical (TT), huracán (H)
Fase hotelera de mayor afectación: S (Sunrise); N (Nizuc); MG (Moon Grand)
Especies de algas o pastos marinos: S: Sargassum; Sf: Syringodium filiforme; Th: Thalasia testudinum
Reporte Meterológico Playa Moon Palace
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Biommass (Tons) of Sargassum per
month/year Moon Palace Hotel
Tons
Month/year
May
Month
Tonsofsargassumpermonthregistered
atMoonPalaceHotel
Year
Wind effect
Month
SargassumBiomass(Tons)
Year
Whole coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico
MCI values observed with MERIS
and OLCI, forming monthly
maxium values for period August
To August 2019.
MERIS and OLCI
Medium Resolution Imaging
Spectrometer optical sensor
It allows to rectify for definitive
Signal when clouds, haze and
sunlight
OLCI
Sargassum spp. Total Biomass estimates
TotalOLCIestimatedSargassum
(Wetweighttons)
Year
MCI values observed with MERIS and OLCI, forming monthly maximum
values, adding over areas and scaling to historical ship-tow data in the
Atlantic, as described in Gower and King, Int JRS, 32, 1917-1929, 2011.
Period (end of 2016 – 2019)
MERIS and OLCI: Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer optical
sensor. It allows to rectify for definitive Signal when clouds, haze and
sunlight
By:Wangetal.(2019)
AverageMonthlyBiomass
ofsargssum(millonsoftons)
20
15
10
5
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Caribbean Sea& CentralAtlanticOcean
Month/Year
Monthly Total Biomass Quintana Roo, Mexico
Year
Yearaveragebiomass(MillionsofTons)
Coast of Quintana Roo,
Mexico
Caribbean Sea
Central Atlantic Ocean
Effect of
winds
YearlyAccumulatedSargassum(M3)
Year
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Most likely scenarios in next 5 years
Moon Palace Hotel, QR Mexico
Scenario A Scenario B
Year
YearlyBiomass(Tons)
A
B
Biomass(tons)
Year
Year
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Most likely scenarios in next 5 years
Moon Palace Hotel
Wind effect Scenario A Scenario B
Sargassumbiomass(tons)
Year
A
B
Conclusions:
o Records of beaching sargassum indices in Puerto Morelos, Quintana Roo
were used to build a realiable index which accords with signal of Total
biomass of sargassum in the Central Atlantic Ocean and the Great
Caribbean.
o We found strong positive correlations between beaching index in Moon
Palace Hotel Puerto Morelos and Total Biomass estimates based on
Satellite observed values by Gower and his team and Wang et al, 2019.
o Sargassum population peaked and there is a downturn movement after
2018 .
o Decreasing of total sargassum population Biomass might follow one of the
scenarios described as A or B.
Each one has completly different implications at all levels.
o Monitoring of beaching events at different sites within the Caribbean
(Country level) are of much importance to compare the drifting of
sargassum to coastal areas during advection movements of sargassum
from the Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.
o It is of outmost importance to standarize a methodology to generate
indices to estimate beaching biomass of sargassum at coastal level in
different countries and sites.
o It is necessary to analyse and compare those indices to assess the impact
of sargassum in each country and be able to alert, in advance, the
strength of the sargassum population during usptream movements.
o It is important to recognize and study, in detail, wind direction and
strength, to understand the accumulation of sargassum on the beaches.
Important remarks:
 Future sargassum Total Biomass estimates and beaching indices in next two years,
will indicate in more detail, which factors and their levels are implicated in the
population dynamics of Sargassum spp.
 If biomass estimates and beaching indices follow Scenario A: it will imply density-
dependence behavior.
 If on the contrary, total Biomass estimates and beaching indices behave according
to Scenario B, it would indicate the need to incorporate Global factors such as
North Atlantic Oscilation (NAO), AMOC and to study their effect on Sargassum
population dynamics in the area of distribution.
THANKS !
MERCI !
GRACIAS!
Contre-amiral Enrique Flores Morado Plausible scenarios of sargassum

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Contre-amiral Enrique Flores Morado Plausible scenarios of sargassum

  • 1. Contre-amiral Enrique Flores Morado Direction générale adjointe d'océanographie, hydrographie et météorologie, chef et responsable du thème des sargasses
  • 2. Plausible scenarios of sargassum (Sargassum spp.) population based on satellite-detection and beaching indices. OIOS – Canada
  • 3. The sargassum phenomenon is considered a Wicked problem - problème enchevêtré.
  • 4. Climatechange Hemisphere,Periods of 6-7 decades in the AtlanticOcean Northequatorial circulation System Transatlantic Africa-South America annual / stational Currents System in the Caribbean South America - Caribbean – G. México Stational /monthly SubregionalCurrentsSystem Local/beaches days/weeks Dynamic processes inter-connected at different geographic Scales and times 1 2 3 4
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Intertropical convergence NEC NECC Vortex and retention Caribbean Current Transport North Brazil transport Current nutrients Freshwater flux nutrients nutrients Summer Winds
  • 9. Transportation to the Great Caribbean
  • 12. Collection of sargassum in front of the Moon Palace Hotel
  • 13. Día Cantidad de pastos (Semaforo) Condiciones Climatologicas Dirección del Viento Rachas de Viento Especie de sargazo o pasto Fase de mayor afectación Volumen extraido m3 Volumen procesado m3 Fenomeno Meteorologico Reportado Observaciones 1 1 PN E 11-15 SF Sunrise 140 MB 2 2 DLL SE 10-16 SF,TT Sunrise 378 7 MB 3 2 CD SE 17-22 SF,TT Sunrise 63 MB 4 3 CD SE 8-12 SF,TT Sunrise 147 7 MB Thalassia testudinum 5 3 CD SE 7-11 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 105 MB 6 2 CD SE 8-10 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 77 7 MB 7 2 CD NE 4-8 SF,SA Sunrise 21 MB 8 1 CD ESE 11-13 SF Sunrise 21 MB 9 2 CD ESE 8-10 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 133 MB 10 3 PN NE 9-15 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 308 7 MB Syringodium filiforme 11 2 CD NE 15-20 TT,SA Sunrise 189 MA 12 2 CD NE 11-18 SF,TT,SA Sunrise 70 MB 13 2 DLL NE 20-15 TT,SA Sunrise 63 14 MB 14 1 CD NE 11-22 SF,TT Sunrise 35 MB 15 1 CD O 14-18 SF Sunrise 35 MB 16 3 CD SE 5-14 TT,SF,SA Sunrise 245 21 MB 17 3 CD SE 12-15 SA,SF Sunrise 259 MB 18 3 CD SE 15-20 TT,SF,SA 119 MB Sargassum alga 19 2 CD SE 10-20 SF,SA 154 MA 20 2 CD NE 10-22 SF,SA 91 MB 21 2 CD NE 15-18 SF,TT 70 MA 22 3 CD SE 12-16 SA,SF 112 MA 23 2 CD NE 6-14 SF,TT 56 MA 24 3 PN E 7-10 SF,SA 126 MA 25 3 CN E 12-15 SF,SA 175 MB 26 3 CD O 4-12 SF,SA 186 MB 27 3 CD O 10-14 SF,TT 126 MA 28 3 PN NO 12-17 SA,SF 98 29 3 CD SE 16-21 SA,SF 364 30 3 CD SE 10-20 SA,SF 378 31 Volumen total mensual 4344 63 Promedio mensual 144.8 Máximo diario 378 Mínimo diario 21 Etapas del sargazo basadas en la cantidad de Sargazo o Pastos marinos en playa: 1 (0-20%), 2 (20-40%), 3 (40-60%), 4 (60-80%) y 5 (80,100%) Condiciones climatológicas: Se refiere a cielo despejado (CD), Cielo parcialmente nublado (PN), cielo nublado (CN), Lluvias parciales Fenómenos meteorológicos reportados: Ciclón tropical (CT), depresión trópical (DT), tormenta tropical (TT), huracán (H) Fase hotelera de mayor afectación: S (Sunrise); N (Nizuc); MG (Moon Grand) Especies de algas o pastos marinos: S: Sargassum; Sf: Syringodium filiforme; Th: Thalasia testudinum Reporte Meterológico Playa Moon Palace
  • 14. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Biommass (Tons) of Sargassum per month/year Moon Palace Hotel Tons Month/year May
  • 16. Month
  • 18. MCI values observed with MERIS and OLCI, forming monthly maxium values for period August To August 2019. MERIS and OLCI Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer optical sensor It allows to rectify for definitive Signal when clouds, haze and sunlight OLCI Sargassum spp. Total Biomass estimates
  • 19. TotalOLCIestimatedSargassum (Wetweighttons) Year MCI values observed with MERIS and OLCI, forming monthly maximum values, adding over areas and scaling to historical ship-tow data in the Atlantic, as described in Gower and King, Int JRS, 32, 1917-1929, 2011. Period (end of 2016 – 2019) MERIS and OLCI: Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer optical sensor. It allows to rectify for definitive Signal when clouds, haze and sunlight
  • 20. By:Wangetal.(2019) AverageMonthlyBiomass ofsargssum(millonsoftons) 20 15 10 5 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Caribbean Sea& CentralAtlanticOcean Month/Year
  • 21. Monthly Total Biomass Quintana Roo, Mexico
  • 23. Coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico Caribbean Sea Central Atlantic Ocean Effect of winds
  • 24.
  • 26. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Most likely scenarios in next 5 years Moon Palace Hotel, QR Mexico Scenario A Scenario B Year YearlyBiomass(Tons) A B
  • 28. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Most likely scenarios in next 5 years Moon Palace Hotel Wind effect Scenario A Scenario B Sargassumbiomass(tons) Year A B
  • 29. Conclusions: o Records of beaching sargassum indices in Puerto Morelos, Quintana Roo were used to build a realiable index which accords with signal of Total biomass of sargassum in the Central Atlantic Ocean and the Great Caribbean. o We found strong positive correlations between beaching index in Moon Palace Hotel Puerto Morelos and Total Biomass estimates based on Satellite observed values by Gower and his team and Wang et al, 2019. o Sargassum population peaked and there is a downturn movement after 2018 . o Decreasing of total sargassum population Biomass might follow one of the scenarios described as A or B. Each one has completly different implications at all levels. o Monitoring of beaching events at different sites within the Caribbean (Country level) are of much importance to compare the drifting of sargassum to coastal areas during advection movements of sargassum from the Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.
  • 30. o It is of outmost importance to standarize a methodology to generate indices to estimate beaching biomass of sargassum at coastal level in different countries and sites. o It is necessary to analyse and compare those indices to assess the impact of sargassum in each country and be able to alert, in advance, the strength of the sargassum population during usptream movements. o It is important to recognize and study, in detail, wind direction and strength, to understand the accumulation of sargassum on the beaches. Important remarks:  Future sargassum Total Biomass estimates and beaching indices in next two years, will indicate in more detail, which factors and their levels are implicated in the population dynamics of Sargassum spp.  If biomass estimates and beaching indices follow Scenario A: it will imply density- dependence behavior.  If on the contrary, total Biomass estimates and beaching indices behave according to Scenario B, it would indicate the need to incorporate Global factors such as North Atlantic Oscilation (NAO), AMOC and to study their effect on Sargassum population dynamics in the area of distribution.