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Global tourism
Dr Grant Kleeman
Key concept: Interconnec5on
• The concept of interconnec5on is grounded in the
proposi7on that no geographical issue or phenomena can be
viewed in isola7on.
• People and places are interconnected with other peoples and
places in a variety of ways. These interconnec7ons have
significant influences on the characteris7cs of places.
Content focus
• Students focus on the connec7ons people have to places across a
range of scales.
• They examine what shapes people’s percep7ons of places and how
this influences their connec7ons to places.
• Students explore how transport, informa7on and communica7on
technologies and trade link people to many places.
• They explain the effects of human ac7vi7es, such as produc7on,
recrea7on and travel, on places and environments in Australia and
across the world and inves5gate sustainability ini7a7ves and
possible futures for these places.
Key inquiry ques5ons
• How are people and places connected to other places?
• What role does technology play in connec7ng people to
people, goods, services and informa7on
• in other places?
• What are the consequences of a globally connected world for
people and places?
• Why are interconnec7ons important for the future of places
and environments?
Content
Students inves7gate:
• the influences on and effects of, people’s travel and
recrea7onal, cultural or leisure connec7ons with different
places for the future
• the way transporta7on and informa7on and
communica7on technologies are used to connect people
to services, informa7on and people in other places
• the ways places and people are interconnected through
trade in goods and services across a range of scales
• the effects of the produc7on and consump7on of goods on
people, places and environments throughout the world.
Possible examples of interconnec5ons
• Trade
• Tourism
• Consumer electronic goods
• Clothing and footwear industry
• Popular culture (for example, music)
Facilita5ng factors: technological advances in transport and
communica7on technologies.
Why tourism?
Students have the opportunity to inves7gate:
• the influences on and effects of, people’s travel-related connec7ons with
different places for the future
• the way transporta7on and informa7on and communica7on technologies
have facilitated the growth of global tourism
• the ways places and people are interconnected through the trade in
tourism-related goods and services across a range of scales
• the effects of tourism on people, places and environments throughout the
world.
Plus:
• Student engagement
• U7litarian factors
It’s big! (and economically important)
Rapid growth
Interna7onal tourist arrivals grew by 3.9% to
reach a total of 1,235 million.
Accoun5ng for the rapid growth in
global tourism
• Technological advances in transport and communica7on
technologies and reduc7ons in the real cost of travel
• Rising affluence and changing lifestyle expecta7ons
• Demographic and social change
• The collapse of communism in Europe
Technological advances in transport and
communica5on technologies
Technological advances in transport and
communica5on technologies
Technological innova7ons have transformed the global
tourism industry
Transport – reduc7ons in the real cost of travel
Internet – reduces complexity and enhances consumer
autonomy (40,000 travel agency jobs lost in the last
decade).
The introduc7on of
the Boeng 747 in
1970
revolu7onised
interna7onal
tourism. Carries
just over 400
passengers.
A380 – capable of
carrying 55 passengers
on two decks.
On-line flight bookings
Convenient access
to cash and credit
Travel apps
High speed trains –
some are capable of
speeds exceeding
400km/hr.
Smartphones
enhancing
connec7vity
Three mega cruise ships. Royal
Caribbean’s Allure of the Seas,
Oasis of the Seas and Harmony of
the Seas.
On-line hotel bookings
The real price of air travel, 1970–2010
Sydney–Heathrow $1,577 (return)!
Highligh5ng interconnec5vity
Map of world airline routes. The map shows 59,036 airline routes between 3,209
airports by 531 airlines
Sydney’s Interna7onal
Airport now connects
with 50 global ci7es
(including 15 in China).
Melbourne connects
with just 30 global ci7es.
Mapping the world’s biggest airlines.
World’s busiest airport hubs
Airport Country Passengers 2015
Atlanta Interna7onal USA 101, 489,887
Beijing Capital Interna7onal China 89,938,628
Dubai UAE 78,010,265
Chicago O’Hare Interna7onal USA 76,942,493
Tokyo Interna7onal Japan 75,316,718
London Heathrow UK 74,989,914
Los Angeles Interna7onal USA 74,704,122
Hong Kong Interna7onal Hong Kong 68,342,785
Charles de Gaulle Interna7onal France 65,771,288
Dallas Forth Worth Interna7onal USA 64,072,468
Sydney: 39,721,619
Plane Finder
hkps://planefinder.net/
Marine Traffic
hkp://www.marinetraffic.com/
Demographic and
Social Change
Demographic and social change
Increased life expectancy
Increased age of marriage
Alterna7ve household forma7on
Changing lifestyle expecta7ons and
aspira7ons
Impacts of Social Change
2017
Changes to the life
stage cycle and their
impact on tourism
The baby boomers are remaking the
60s. A new narra7ve has been wriken
on how to live this stage in the life
cycle. They are busy spending their
(omen generous) superannua7on
benefits on travel and other life-style
related ac7vi7es.
‘Middle age’ now
runs from 50 to 70.
By this defini7on a
third of Australians
(almost 7 million
people) are now
‘middle aged’.
2017
Opportuni7es for travel limited by
increasing mobility issues. The
cruise is one of the viable op7on.
The 20s – Life-style
orientated stage with a
focus on travel.
Adventure and
experien7al travel is
important.
Later age of marriage:
Today’s brides are
older (on average
29.8 years of age) and
the grooms are
pushing 31.8.
The 30s and 40s
are a 7me of
consolida7on, of
children, and of
work for both
partners. Travel
plans focused on
des7na7ons
closer to home.
Baby boomers: Households aged between 65
and 74 years today are $400,000 (or 27 per
cent) wealthier in real terms than households
of that age 10 years ago.
In the USA control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than 50% of discretionary
spending power. They are responsible for more than half of all consumer spending including
80% of all leisure travel.
Economic
change
Economic change
Rising affluence in developing countries fueling
growth in global tourism.
Outbound tourism expenditure (selected
countries): Note the rate on increase experienced
by China and Russia
Economic factors in in Australia driving the
growth in tourism
Rising affluence and wealth accumula7on (for some)
• Sustained economic growth and increases in real wages (un7l recently)
• Generous superannua7on schemes (especially for the baby boomers)
• Rising property prices (wealth effect)
• Inter-genera7onal wealth transfers
• Generous leave provisions for employees
• The removal of barriers to interna7onal travel
Global tourism, because of its reliance on
the discre5onary spending decisions of
consumers, is sensi5ve to factors that impact
on consumer confidence.
Discre5onary spending
and the impacts of an
economic crisis, terrorism,
war, poli5cal uncertainty,
civil conflict.
Source of uncertainty
Decline in consumer
confidence
Reduced discretionary spending
on non-essentials such as
vacations
Increased
unemployment,
underemployment
and job insecurity
Significant declines in
economic activity in affected
sectors etc.
Discre5onary spending
An industry dependent on discre5onary
spending – percep5ons or poli5cal stability
and personal safety
'Trump slump': US
tourism industry down
$US185 million since
Trump took office.
“'Mounting signs' that Trump
policies hurting U.S. tourism, say
industry groups”
“Trump slump?
US tourism
industry fears
downturn.”
“US tourism experiences a
'Trump slump’”
Impacts of currency movements
Currency exchange rates have a
large impact. The apprecia7ng US
dollar, for example, has had a major
impact the consumer behaviour. As
has the deprecia7on of the Bri7sh
pound.
Inbound travel to the USA from Canada and Mexico has become rela7vely
more expensive, while US outbound travel has become rela7vely cheaper.
Impacts of terrorism
Paris suffered a decline in the
number of tourist arrivals resul7ng
in a revenue loss of 750 million euros
during the first six months of 2016.
One million fewer visitors – both
na7onals and interna7onals –
arrived during the first six months of
the year, a 6.4 per cent drop.
France is the most visited country in
the world, with almost 85 million
foreign visitors last year, including
16 million in Paris, according to the
global tourism index.
The French tourism sector employs
nearly 2 million people and accounts
for 7 per cent of the country’s gross
domes7c product (GDP).
A closer look at the nature and scope
of the global tourism industry
Growth rates
2016 was the seventh consecu7ve year of sustained growth following the
2009 global economic and financial crisis.
Growth rates by month
GFC
Seasonal movements
Types of tourism
Inbound tourism by region, 2015
Europe con7nues
to dominate!
Interna5onal movement of tourists
Mode and purpose of inbound tourism
Australia’s graph would look
quite different!
Tourisms big spenders
Global tourism forecasts
Market differen5a5on
The tourism market is a dynamic one and new sectors con7nue to emerge.
These inevitably become the focus of tourism marke7ng campaigns and
providers adapt their product to meet the expecta7ons of those targeted.
Some of the more notable sectors include:
• Chasing the 'pink dollar (euro, pound or yen)
• DINKs splash out on travel
• Peer-to-peer travel: Sharing and caring (
• Mul7-genera7onal vaca7ons (the family Christmas cruise!)
• Chinese on the move!
• Here come the PANKS! - Professional Aunt, No Kids
• Going mobile
Global tourism: An Australian
perspec5ve!
In 2015–16, the GDP generated by
tourism increased 7.4% (or $3.7
billion) to reach a record of $53
billion. It accounted for 3.2% share
of Australia’s total GDP.
In 2015–16, the industry provided
jobs for 580,200 workers directly –
equivalent to 4.9% of Australia’s
total workforce. In terms of
workforce size, tourism is larger
than mining (227,800 workers),
agriculture (321,600 workers) and
u7li7es services (144,000 workers).
Contribu5on of tourism to the Australian economy
Australian’s on the move
Record growth in interna7onal travel has
sparked an unprecedented surge in the
number of Australian passport holders.
One in two (49%) Australians now has a
passport, according to the Department of
Foreign Affairs and Trade, an increase of
16% over 2015.
It reflects the growing tendency of
Australians to holiday overseas rather
than domes7cally. While this figure is well
ahead of the United States (25%) it
seriously lags European countries such as
Germany with 90% passport ownership.
There were 9.9 million short-term
resident departures from Australia
in 2016.
Where do Australians travel to?
(Change over the decade 2006–2016)
Trend is clearly
away from
tradi7onal
des7na7ons to
those in the region
(Indonesia, Japan
and India) and
North America.
Who visits?
Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Top 10 Source Countries in 2016
Chinese surge!
Chinese visitor arrivals hit 1.2 million in 2016
Chinese residents made a record number of visits to Australia in the 2016 calendar
year, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Sta7s7cs (ABS).
Short-term trips from China have grown from 500 in 1976 to 1.2 million in
2016, making it the country with the highest growth rate in that period.
Mega trends in global tourism
Tendencies towards globalisation and
localisations
Trends in global tourism
Global hotel corpora5ons
Group Corporate
HQ
Number of
Proper5es
Number
of rooms
Brands
Luxury
brands
Up-market
brands Mid-market Budget
Marriok
Interna7onal
Bethesda,
Maryland, USA
5,974 1,170,367 Ritz-Carlton
Bulgari Hotels
JW Marriok
St Regis
Luxury Collec7on
Renaissance
Marriok
Delta
Gaylord Hotels
W Hotels
Design Hotels
Wes7n Hotels and Resorts
Le Meridien
Sheraton
Courtyard by Marriok
Residence Inn by Marriok
Four Points by Sheraton
Alom Hotels
Fairfield Inn by Marriok
Protea Hotels
TownePlace Suites
InterCon7nental
Hotels Group
Denham,
Buckinghamshire,
UK
5,070 749,721 Intercon7nental
Hotels
Crowne Plaza
Kimpton Hotels
Hotel Indigo
Even Hotels
Staybridge Suites
Holiday Inn Select
Holiday Inn
Holiday Inn Express
Candlewood Suites
Hilton
Worldwide
McLean, Virginia,
USA
4727 775,866 Waldorf Astoria
Conrad Hotels
Hilton
DoubleTree
Curio Collec7on
Embassy Suites by Hilton
Hilton Garden Inn
Homewood Suites by Hilton
Tru by Hilton
Hampton by Hilton
Accor Paris, France 4,200 524,955 Sofitel Legend
Sofitel
Fairmont
Raffles
Pullman
Swissotel
MGallery
The Sebel
Adagio Premium
Grand Mercure
Novotel
Adagio
Mercure
ibis
Formula 1
Adagio Access
Coralia
Localisation: Locally-based enterprises take advantage of the commercial opportunities generated
from the growth in international tourism and the investment in hotels and resorts by TNCs.
Impacts of tourism
Advantages and disadvantages of tourism
Advantages
• employment (tourism in labour
intensive, few administra7ve
posi7ons, likle opportunity for
upward mobility)
• infrastructure development (roads,
water, electricity,
telecommunica7ons)
• cultural preserva7on (economic
incen7ves to preserve food, fashion,
fes7vals and physical history, but
these tend to be superficial elements
of a culture.)
• environmental protec7on (economic
incen7ve to protect the biophysical
environment)
• foreign exchange (generates
income),
• people gain access to
pharmaceu7cals, technology,
consumer goods
• provision of health care services
Disadvantages
• loss of cultural diversity (language, religion, rituals, material
culture omen impacted)
• environmental impacts (impacts of resort developments:
golf course, ski fields, coastlines.
• limited employment opportuni7es (omen jobs are low
skilled, low wage, pros7tu7on, drug trade, gambling etc.)
• promo7on of illegal and/or destruc7ve economic ac7vi7es
(drug trading, species endangerment, child exploita7on etc.)
• outside hiring (especially, skilled middle and senior
management)
• concentra7on of employment opportuni7es (resort
enclaves.)
• seasonal employment
• outside decision making (decisions made outside of the area
by transna7onal corpora7ons)
• corrup7on of local officials
• loss of produc7ve land to resort developments and golf
courses
• nega7ve social impacts (STD's, substance abuse, begging,
solici7ng etc.)
• diverted and concentrated development at tourist
des7na7ons
• market uncertainty (fickle, affected by local and world
events)
ADAPTATION How the
industry can respond
MITIGATION What tourism
can do to reduce its emissions
Mountain and Snow Tourism
Snow sports are at obvious risk from rising
temperatures, with lower-elevation resorts facing
progressively less reliable snowfalls and shorter
seasons. But other types of mountain tourism are
also vulnerable, as infrastructure is put at risk from
melting glaciers and thawing permafrost.
Forest and Lake Tourism
Outdoor activities will be affected by large-scale
forest dieback and more widespread wildfires,
triggered by sustained drought and higher
temperatures. Longer fire seasons will reduce
access to national parks. Rising temperatures will
change lake habitats, affecting fishing tourism.
Biodiversity and Agricultural Tourism
As temperatures rise, the geographical dispersal
of flora and fauna will change, as species shift
to conditions to which they are better adapted.
Given that many nature reserves are geographically
isolated, this may prove difficult or impossible for
many iconic species.
Cities and Urban Centre Tourism
City visits account for a large percentage of
the global tourism industry. Across the world,
city infrastructure is exposed to a range of
climate impacts, including extreme heat events,
water shortages and flooding. Coastal cities,
meanwhile, are at risk from sea-level rise.
Beach and Coastal Tourism
Rising sea levels and more extreme weather
events threaten beaches and coastal infrastructure
enjoyed by hundreds of millions of tourists
each year. While adaptation can protect at-risk
infrastructure, beaches are difficult to protect
without reducing their attractiveness.
Ocean and Sea Life Tourism
The combination of rising water temperatures
and increasing ocean acidification, caused by
the absorption of carbon dioxide, spell particular
peril for reef ecosystems and the dive tourism they
support. Warming sea temperatures will also change
the distributions of fish and marine mammals.
MITIGATION
New aircraft typically
offer 20–30%
improvement in
efficiency. Shifting from
kerosene to biofuels
offers 30% + cuts in
direct greenhouse gas
emissions.
RISKS
2°C of global warming by
2050-2100 and ocean
acidification would would see
reef structures degrade with
serious consequences for
tourism. Mass coral bleaching
and mortality becomes an
annual risk under all climate
scenarios, with mass mortality
events beginning to occur
every 1–2 years by 2100.
ADAPTATION
The decline in sea ice
is expected to add to an
already rapid increase
in Arctic cruises.
ADAPTATION
Winter sport
resorts can adapt
by marketing
themselves as year
round-destinations,
with longer 'green
seasons' helping
to offset shorter
skiing seasons.
ADAPTATION
Snow-making
machines can help
operators respond to
less reliable snowfall,
although they will
face technological
and economic limits
as temperatures rise.
IMPACTS
Sea levels are
estimated to rise
0.45–0.82m higher
than present by the
end of the century if
emissions continue to
rise at the current rate.
RISKS
Degraded beaches
reduce the desirability
of destinations, and
beach erosion can
reduce the prices that
operators can charge
for accommodation.
RISKS
Rising temper-
atures will mean that
fewer resorts will
be able to rely upon
sufficient snowfall.
RISKS
In Southern Europe,
North America and
Australia, fire seasons
will lengthen, and there
will be an increase in
the number of high fire
danger days.
MITIGATION
Behavioural changes, such
as holidaying locally in favour
of long-haul destinations, would
reduce the impacts of tourism.
RISKS
In sub-Saharan Africa,
up to 40% of species in
national parks are likely
to become endangered
by 2080, assuming they
are unable to migrate.
RISKS
Rising temperatures are
seeing species shift towards
the poles and to higher
elevations where possible.
Extinctions are increasingly
likely as climate change
progresses.
RISKS
The suitability of most
existing wine regions
for vine-growing is expect-
ed to decline, affecting
wine tourism.
IMPACTS
Half to two-thirds of Asia’s
cities with 1 million or more
inhabitants are exposed to
one or more climate-related
hazards, with floods and
cyclones the most important.
RISKS
An estimated 150
million people
currently live in cities
with perennial water
shortage, a figure
which could rise to
1 billion by 2050.
Forest and
Lake Tourism
Mountain and
Snow Tourism
Beach and
Coastal Tourism
Ocean and
Sea Life Tourism
Biodiversity and
Agricultural Tourism
Cities and Urban
Centre Tourism
IMPACTS Changes already
affecting the tourism sector
RISKS Likely impacts
on tourism in the future
IMPACTS
Severe droughts
and pest infestation
have led to widescale
forest die-back
in North America.
Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Tourism
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc
MITIGATION
The built environ-
ment accounts for
20% of the sector’s
climate impact;
retrofitting or ener-
gy-efficient new builds
would cut emissions.
IMPACTS
Distributions of fish and other
marine fauna are changing as
the oceans warm, impacting
recreational fishing and marine
animal watching.
Tourism on the Move in a Changing Climate
Rising temperatures, higher sea levels and degraded
habitats will have serious impacts on almost every
sub-sector of the tourism industry. But options
exist to help the industry adapt to climate change.
Impacts and responses to climate change
2.5 Global Tourism Dr. Grant Kleeman.pdf

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2.5 Global Tourism Dr. Grant Kleeman.pdf

  • 2. Key concept: Interconnec5on • The concept of interconnec5on is grounded in the proposi7on that no geographical issue or phenomena can be viewed in isola7on. • People and places are interconnected with other peoples and places in a variety of ways. These interconnec7ons have significant influences on the characteris7cs of places.
  • 3. Content focus • Students focus on the connec7ons people have to places across a range of scales. • They examine what shapes people’s percep7ons of places and how this influences their connec7ons to places. • Students explore how transport, informa7on and communica7on technologies and trade link people to many places. • They explain the effects of human ac7vi7es, such as produc7on, recrea7on and travel, on places and environments in Australia and across the world and inves5gate sustainability ini7a7ves and possible futures for these places.
  • 4. Key inquiry ques5ons • How are people and places connected to other places? • What role does technology play in connec7ng people to people, goods, services and informa7on • in other places? • What are the consequences of a globally connected world for people and places? • Why are interconnec7ons important for the future of places and environments?
  • 5. Content Students inves7gate: • the influences on and effects of, people’s travel and recrea7onal, cultural or leisure connec7ons with different places for the future • the way transporta7on and informa7on and communica7on technologies are used to connect people to services, informa7on and people in other places • the ways places and people are interconnected through trade in goods and services across a range of scales • the effects of the produc7on and consump7on of goods on people, places and environments throughout the world.
  • 6. Possible examples of interconnec5ons • Trade • Tourism • Consumer electronic goods • Clothing and footwear industry • Popular culture (for example, music) Facilita5ng factors: technological advances in transport and communica7on technologies.
  • 7. Why tourism? Students have the opportunity to inves7gate: • the influences on and effects of, people’s travel-related connec7ons with different places for the future • the way transporta7on and informa7on and communica7on technologies have facilitated the growth of global tourism • the ways places and people are interconnected through the trade in tourism-related goods and services across a range of scales • the effects of tourism on people, places and environments throughout the world. Plus: • Student engagement • U7litarian factors
  • 8. It’s big! (and economically important)
  • 9. Rapid growth Interna7onal tourist arrivals grew by 3.9% to reach a total of 1,235 million.
  • 10. Accoun5ng for the rapid growth in global tourism • Technological advances in transport and communica7on technologies and reduc7ons in the real cost of travel • Rising affluence and changing lifestyle expecta7ons • Demographic and social change • The collapse of communism in Europe
  • 11. Technological advances in transport and communica5on technologies
  • 12. Technological advances in transport and communica5on technologies Technological innova7ons have transformed the global tourism industry Transport – reduc7ons in the real cost of travel Internet – reduces complexity and enhances consumer autonomy (40,000 travel agency jobs lost in the last decade). The introduc7on of the Boeng 747 in 1970 revolu7onised interna7onal tourism. Carries just over 400 passengers. A380 – capable of carrying 55 passengers on two decks. On-line flight bookings Convenient access to cash and credit Travel apps High speed trains – some are capable of speeds exceeding 400km/hr. Smartphones enhancing connec7vity Three mega cruise ships. Royal Caribbean’s Allure of the Seas, Oasis of the Seas and Harmony of the Seas. On-line hotel bookings
  • 13. The real price of air travel, 1970–2010
  • 15. Highligh5ng interconnec5vity Map of world airline routes. The map shows 59,036 airline routes between 3,209 airports by 531 airlines Sydney’s Interna7onal Airport now connects with 50 global ci7es (including 15 in China). Melbourne connects with just 30 global ci7es.
  • 16. Mapping the world’s biggest airlines.
  • 17. World’s busiest airport hubs Airport Country Passengers 2015 Atlanta Interna7onal USA 101, 489,887 Beijing Capital Interna7onal China 89,938,628 Dubai UAE 78,010,265 Chicago O’Hare Interna7onal USA 76,942,493 Tokyo Interna7onal Japan 75,316,718 London Heathrow UK 74,989,914 Los Angeles Interna7onal USA 74,704,122 Hong Kong Interna7onal Hong Kong 68,342,785 Charles de Gaulle Interna7onal France 65,771,288 Dallas Forth Worth Interna7onal USA 64,072,468 Sydney: 39,721,619
  • 21. Demographic and social change Increased life expectancy Increased age of marriage Alterna7ve household forma7on Changing lifestyle expecta7ons and aspira7ons
  • 22. Impacts of Social Change 2017
  • 23. Changes to the life stage cycle and their impact on tourism The baby boomers are remaking the 60s. A new narra7ve has been wriken on how to live this stage in the life cycle. They are busy spending their (omen generous) superannua7on benefits on travel and other life-style related ac7vi7es. ‘Middle age’ now runs from 50 to 70. By this defini7on a third of Australians (almost 7 million people) are now ‘middle aged’. 2017 Opportuni7es for travel limited by increasing mobility issues. The cruise is one of the viable op7on. The 20s – Life-style orientated stage with a focus on travel. Adventure and experien7al travel is important. Later age of marriage: Today’s brides are older (on average 29.8 years of age) and the grooms are pushing 31.8. The 30s and 40s are a 7me of consolida7on, of children, and of work for both partners. Travel plans focused on des7na7ons closer to home.
  • 24. Baby boomers: Households aged between 65 and 74 years today are $400,000 (or 27 per cent) wealthier in real terms than households of that age 10 years ago. In the USA control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than 50% of discretionary spending power. They are responsible for more than half of all consumer spending including 80% of all leisure travel.
  • 26. Economic change Rising affluence in developing countries fueling growth in global tourism. Outbound tourism expenditure (selected countries): Note the rate on increase experienced by China and Russia
  • 27. Economic factors in in Australia driving the growth in tourism Rising affluence and wealth accumula7on (for some) • Sustained economic growth and increases in real wages (un7l recently) • Generous superannua7on schemes (especially for the baby boomers) • Rising property prices (wealth effect) • Inter-genera7onal wealth transfers • Generous leave provisions for employees • The removal of barriers to interna7onal travel
  • 28. Global tourism, because of its reliance on the discre5onary spending decisions of consumers, is sensi5ve to factors that impact on consumer confidence.
  • 29. Discre5onary spending and the impacts of an economic crisis, terrorism, war, poli5cal uncertainty, civil conflict. Source of uncertainty Decline in consumer confidence Reduced discretionary spending on non-essentials such as vacations Increased unemployment, underemployment and job insecurity Significant declines in economic activity in affected sectors etc. Discre5onary spending
  • 30. An industry dependent on discre5onary spending – percep5ons or poli5cal stability and personal safety 'Trump slump': US tourism industry down $US185 million since Trump took office. “'Mounting signs' that Trump policies hurting U.S. tourism, say industry groups” “Trump slump? US tourism industry fears downturn.” “US tourism experiences a 'Trump slump’”
  • 31. Impacts of currency movements Currency exchange rates have a large impact. The apprecia7ng US dollar, for example, has had a major impact the consumer behaviour. As has the deprecia7on of the Bri7sh pound. Inbound travel to the USA from Canada and Mexico has become rela7vely more expensive, while US outbound travel has become rela7vely cheaper.
  • 32. Impacts of terrorism Paris suffered a decline in the number of tourist arrivals resul7ng in a revenue loss of 750 million euros during the first six months of 2016. One million fewer visitors – both na7onals and interna7onals – arrived during the first six months of the year, a 6.4 per cent drop. France is the most visited country in the world, with almost 85 million foreign visitors last year, including 16 million in Paris, according to the global tourism index. The French tourism sector employs nearly 2 million people and accounts for 7 per cent of the country’s gross domes7c product (GDP).
  • 33. A closer look at the nature and scope of the global tourism industry
  • 34. Growth rates 2016 was the seventh consecu7ve year of sustained growth following the 2009 global economic and financial crisis.
  • 35. Growth rates by month GFC
  • 38. Inbound tourism by region, 2015 Europe con7nues to dominate!
  • 40. Mode and purpose of inbound tourism Australia’s graph would look quite different!
  • 43. Market differen5a5on The tourism market is a dynamic one and new sectors con7nue to emerge. These inevitably become the focus of tourism marke7ng campaigns and providers adapt their product to meet the expecta7ons of those targeted. Some of the more notable sectors include: • Chasing the 'pink dollar (euro, pound or yen) • DINKs splash out on travel • Peer-to-peer travel: Sharing and caring ( • Mul7-genera7onal vaca7ons (the family Christmas cruise!) • Chinese on the move! • Here come the PANKS! - Professional Aunt, No Kids • Going mobile
  • 44. Global tourism: An Australian perspec5ve!
  • 45. In 2015–16, the GDP generated by tourism increased 7.4% (or $3.7 billion) to reach a record of $53 billion. It accounted for 3.2% share of Australia’s total GDP. In 2015–16, the industry provided jobs for 580,200 workers directly – equivalent to 4.9% of Australia’s total workforce. In terms of workforce size, tourism is larger than mining (227,800 workers), agriculture (321,600 workers) and u7li7es services (144,000 workers). Contribu5on of tourism to the Australian economy
  • 46. Australian’s on the move Record growth in interna7onal travel has sparked an unprecedented surge in the number of Australian passport holders. One in two (49%) Australians now has a passport, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, an increase of 16% over 2015. It reflects the growing tendency of Australians to holiday overseas rather than domes7cally. While this figure is well ahead of the United States (25%) it seriously lags European countries such as Germany with 90% passport ownership. There were 9.9 million short-term resident departures from Australia in 2016.
  • 47. Where do Australians travel to? (Change over the decade 2006–2016) Trend is clearly away from tradi7onal des7na7ons to those in the region (Indonesia, Japan and India) and North America.
  • 48. Who visits? Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Top 10 Source Countries in 2016
  • 49. Chinese surge! Chinese visitor arrivals hit 1.2 million in 2016 Chinese residents made a record number of visits to Australia in the 2016 calendar year, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Sta7s7cs (ABS). Short-term trips from China have grown from 500 in 1976 to 1.2 million in 2016, making it the country with the highest growth rate in that period.
  • 50. Mega trends in global tourism Tendencies towards globalisation and localisations
  • 51. Trends in global tourism
  • 52. Global hotel corpora5ons Group Corporate HQ Number of Proper5es Number of rooms Brands Luxury brands Up-market brands Mid-market Budget Marriok Interna7onal Bethesda, Maryland, USA 5,974 1,170,367 Ritz-Carlton Bulgari Hotels JW Marriok St Regis Luxury Collec7on Renaissance Marriok Delta Gaylord Hotels W Hotels Design Hotels Wes7n Hotels and Resorts Le Meridien Sheraton Courtyard by Marriok Residence Inn by Marriok Four Points by Sheraton Alom Hotels Fairfield Inn by Marriok Protea Hotels TownePlace Suites InterCon7nental Hotels Group Denham, Buckinghamshire, UK 5,070 749,721 Intercon7nental Hotels Crowne Plaza Kimpton Hotels Hotel Indigo Even Hotels Staybridge Suites Holiday Inn Select Holiday Inn Holiday Inn Express Candlewood Suites Hilton Worldwide McLean, Virginia, USA 4727 775,866 Waldorf Astoria Conrad Hotels Hilton DoubleTree Curio Collec7on Embassy Suites by Hilton Hilton Garden Inn Homewood Suites by Hilton Tru by Hilton Hampton by Hilton Accor Paris, France 4,200 524,955 Sofitel Legend Sofitel Fairmont Raffles Pullman Swissotel MGallery The Sebel Adagio Premium Grand Mercure Novotel Adagio Mercure ibis Formula 1 Adagio Access Coralia
  • 53. Localisation: Locally-based enterprises take advantage of the commercial opportunities generated from the growth in international tourism and the investment in hotels and resorts by TNCs.
  • 55. Advantages and disadvantages of tourism Advantages • employment (tourism in labour intensive, few administra7ve posi7ons, likle opportunity for upward mobility) • infrastructure development (roads, water, electricity, telecommunica7ons) • cultural preserva7on (economic incen7ves to preserve food, fashion, fes7vals and physical history, but these tend to be superficial elements of a culture.) • environmental protec7on (economic incen7ve to protect the biophysical environment) • foreign exchange (generates income), • people gain access to pharmaceu7cals, technology, consumer goods • provision of health care services Disadvantages • loss of cultural diversity (language, religion, rituals, material culture omen impacted) • environmental impacts (impacts of resort developments: golf course, ski fields, coastlines. • limited employment opportuni7es (omen jobs are low skilled, low wage, pros7tu7on, drug trade, gambling etc.) • promo7on of illegal and/or destruc7ve economic ac7vi7es (drug trading, species endangerment, child exploita7on etc.) • outside hiring (especially, skilled middle and senior management) • concentra7on of employment opportuni7es (resort enclaves.) • seasonal employment • outside decision making (decisions made outside of the area by transna7onal corpora7ons) • corrup7on of local officials • loss of produc7ve land to resort developments and golf courses • nega7ve social impacts (STD's, substance abuse, begging, solici7ng etc.) • diverted and concentrated development at tourist des7na7ons • market uncertainty (fickle, affected by local and world events)
  • 56. ADAPTATION How the industry can respond MITIGATION What tourism can do to reduce its emissions Mountain and Snow Tourism Snow sports are at obvious risk from rising temperatures, with lower-elevation resorts facing progressively less reliable snowfalls and shorter seasons. But other types of mountain tourism are also vulnerable, as infrastructure is put at risk from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost. Forest and Lake Tourism Outdoor activities will be affected by large-scale forest dieback and more widespread wildfires, triggered by sustained drought and higher temperatures. Longer fire seasons will reduce access to national parks. Rising temperatures will change lake habitats, affecting fishing tourism. Biodiversity and Agricultural Tourism As temperatures rise, the geographical dispersal of flora and fauna will change, as species shift to conditions to which they are better adapted. Given that many nature reserves are geographically isolated, this may prove difficult or impossible for many iconic species. Cities and Urban Centre Tourism City visits account for a large percentage of the global tourism industry. Across the world, city infrastructure is exposed to a range of climate impacts, including extreme heat events, water shortages and flooding. Coastal cities, meanwhile, are at risk from sea-level rise. Beach and Coastal Tourism Rising sea levels and more extreme weather events threaten beaches and coastal infrastructure enjoyed by hundreds of millions of tourists each year. While adaptation can protect at-risk infrastructure, beaches are difficult to protect without reducing their attractiveness. Ocean and Sea Life Tourism The combination of rising water temperatures and increasing ocean acidification, caused by the absorption of carbon dioxide, spell particular peril for reef ecosystems and the dive tourism they support. Warming sea temperatures will also change the distributions of fish and marine mammals. MITIGATION New aircraft typically offer 20–30% improvement in efficiency. Shifting from kerosene to biofuels offers 30% + cuts in direct greenhouse gas emissions. RISKS 2°C of global warming by 2050-2100 and ocean acidification would would see reef structures degrade with serious consequences for tourism. Mass coral bleaching and mortality becomes an annual risk under all climate scenarios, with mass mortality events beginning to occur every 1–2 years by 2100. ADAPTATION The decline in sea ice is expected to add to an already rapid increase in Arctic cruises. ADAPTATION Winter sport resorts can adapt by marketing themselves as year round-destinations, with longer 'green seasons' helping to offset shorter skiing seasons. ADAPTATION Snow-making machines can help operators respond to less reliable snowfall, although they will face technological and economic limits as temperatures rise. IMPACTS Sea levels are estimated to rise 0.45–0.82m higher than present by the end of the century if emissions continue to rise at the current rate. RISKS Degraded beaches reduce the desirability of destinations, and beach erosion can reduce the prices that operators can charge for accommodation. RISKS Rising temper- atures will mean that fewer resorts will be able to rely upon sufficient snowfall. RISKS In Southern Europe, North America and Australia, fire seasons will lengthen, and there will be an increase in the number of high fire danger days. MITIGATION Behavioural changes, such as holidaying locally in favour of long-haul destinations, would reduce the impacts of tourism. RISKS In sub-Saharan Africa, up to 40% of species in national parks are likely to become endangered by 2080, assuming they are unable to migrate. RISKS Rising temperatures are seeing species shift towards the poles and to higher elevations where possible. Extinctions are increasingly likely as climate change progresses. RISKS The suitability of most existing wine regions for vine-growing is expect- ed to decline, affecting wine tourism. IMPACTS Half to two-thirds of Asia’s cities with 1 million or more inhabitants are exposed to one or more climate-related hazards, with floods and cyclones the most important. RISKS An estimated 150 million people currently live in cities with perennial water shortage, a figure which could rise to 1 billion by 2050. Forest and Lake Tourism Mountain and Snow Tourism Beach and Coastal Tourism Ocean and Sea Life Tourism Biodiversity and Agricultural Tourism Cities and Urban Centre Tourism IMPACTS Changes already affecting the tourism sector RISKS Likely impacts on tourism in the future IMPACTS Severe droughts and pest infestation have led to widescale forest die-back in North America. Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Tourism Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc MITIGATION The built environ- ment accounts for 20% of the sector’s climate impact; retrofitting or ener- gy-efficient new builds would cut emissions. IMPACTS Distributions of fish and other marine fauna are changing as the oceans warm, impacting recreational fishing and marine animal watching. Tourism on the Move in a Changing Climate Rising temperatures, higher sea levels and degraded habitats will have serious impacts on almost every sub-sector of the tourism industry. But options exist to help the industry adapt to climate change. Impacts and responses to climate change