This document provides an analysis of the potential upcoming EU referendum in the UK. It begins by looking at historical public opinion trends on EU membership. It then examines the current state of play in polls, finding that a slim majority currently support remaining in the EU. The document notes that question wording can impact results and draws lessons from previous Scottish and UK referendums. It analyzes the political context around issues like trust in politicians, UKIP support, and attitudes toward the EU. Finally, it considers factors that may be important in the referendum campaign such as messaging, immigration, sovereignty, uncertainty, jobs and the economy, spokespeople, targeting key demographics, and maintaining momentum.

1. TOWARDS AN EU
REFERENDUM
22 JUNE 2015
Tom Clarkson @tomclarkson15
Tom Mludzinski @tom_ComRes

2. IN OR OUT?

3. THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct-77
24-May-78
29-Mar-79
Mar-80
19-23 March 1981
Mar-83
7-8 June 1984
12-16 September 1987
1989
Nov-90
21-Jun-91
4-5 December 1991
5-6 June 1992
10-13 June 1992
21-25 October 1993
11-30 April 1994
23-26 May 1996
27-29 November 1996
15-Apr-97
25-28 April 1997
2-3 October 1997
13-14 November 1997
25-30 June 1998
21-24 May 1999
10-11 June 1999
13-14 October 1999
27-29 October 1999
22-27 June 2000
29-30 September 2000
24-25 November 2000
15-21 March 2001
30 April -1 May 2001
22-May-01
20-22 June 2003
20-22 September 2007
22-24 October 2011
10-13 November 2012
10-12 May 2014
11-14 October 2014
In Out
Source: Ipsos MORI

4. THE STATE OF PLAY
Leave
33%
16%
ComRes Tracker Question
Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether
or not the UK should stay in or leave the European
Union (EU), how would you vote?”
Base: Telephone poll of 1,000 GB adults 29-31 May 2015.
Split sample: 500 adults asked each version of the version
Stay in
51%

5. HOW IMPORTANT IS QUESTION WORDING?
5
Yes
58%
11%
Proposed Government Wording of
Referendum Question
Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow, how would
you vote on the following question: Should the
United Kingdom remain a member of the European
Union?”
No
31%

6. LESSONS FROM SCOTLAND
6
Source: What Scotland Thinks 15 September 2014
STRENGTH OF THE STATUS QUO
IMPORTANCE OF CLEAR OUTCOMES
STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE MESSAGES,
ALLIED TO POSITIVE VISION

7. AV REFERENDUM: A WARNING AGAINST
COMPLACENCY
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AV FPTP
Source: UK Polling Report

8. THE POLITICAL
CONTEXT

9. EUROPE IS A LOW PRIORITY RELATIVE TO OTHER
ISSUES
9
49%
44%
23%
20% 20%
18% 18% 17% 16% 16%
10%
Managing the
NHS
Controlling
immigration
Keeping down
the cost of
everyday items
Promoting
economic
growth
Making sure
the benefits of
economic
growth are felt
by all
Making the
welfare system
fairer
Reducing the
Government’s
budget deficit
Providing
adequate care
for the elderly
Redefining
Britain's
relationship
with the EU
Improving
housing
affordability
Improving the
education
system
Q. Which of the following do you think should be the biggest priorities for the Government at the present
time? Please select up to three. Base: British adults (n=2,036), April 2015

10. CONSERVATIVE ECONOMIC TRUST
10
40
28
33
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
octobre,2010
novembre,2010
décembre,2010
janvier,2011
février,2011
mars,2011
avril,2011
mai,2011
juin,2011
juillet,2011
août,2011
septembre,2011
octobre,2011
novembre,2011
décembre,2011
janvier,2012
février,2012
mars,2012
avril,2012
mai,2012
juin,2012
juillet,2012
août,2012
septembre,2012
octobre,2012
novembre,2012
décembre,2012
janvier,2013
février,2013
mars,2013
avril,2013
mai,2013
juin,2013
juillet,2013
août,2013
septembre,2013
octobre,2013
novembre,2013
décembre,2013
janvier,2014
février,2014
mars,2014
avril,2014
mai,2014
juin,2014
juillet,2014
août,2014
septembre,2014
octobre,2014
novembre,2014
décembre,2014
janvier,2015
février,2015
mars,2015
avril,2015
%
Prime Minister, David Cameron Leader of the Opposition, Ed Miliband
Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls
Q. Do you, or would you, trust each of the following politicians to see
the country through the current economic situation? (% Who say yes)

11. UKIP: A SLOW PUNCTURE?
30
28
29
31
34
35
36
34
36
35 35 35
30
31
32
30
32
35
32
33
32
35
32
34
9 9
12
8 8 8
9
12
8
7
9 9
19
18
16
17
13
10
12 12
10
11
14
12
4
7
5
7
8
6
5
4
5
6
4 4
oct./2014 nov./2014 déc./2014 janv./2015 févr./2015 mars/2015 avr./2015
Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave

12. FARAGE: A DIVISIVE FIGURE
12
38% “irritating”
37% “weird”
24%
“out of touch with
ordinary people”
21% “intelligent”
18%
“comes across as
someone like me”
22% FAVOURABLE
50%
UNFAVOURABLE

13. ATTITUDES TOWARDS
THE EU

14. LOW SATISFACTION WITH THE EU
14
13%
16%
19%
19%
20%
20%
46%
26%
22%
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. To what extent are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the European
Union in its current form?

15. BRITAIN WANTS LESS EU INTERFERENCE
15
7%
13% 13%
18% 18% 19%
42% 44%
49%
29%
38% 38%
33% 37% 31%
38%
28% 21%
64%
49% 49% 49%
46%
49%
20%
28% 30%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Involvement of the EU in the affairs of your country
More involvement About same level Less involvement
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?

16. QUO VADIS EUROPA?
16
7% 24% 44% 25%UK
11% 25% 44% 20%
22% 42% 23% 14%
5% 49% 34% 12%
23% 50% 17% 10%
6% 50% 31% 14%
45% 18% 23% 13%
20% 27% 36% 17%
37% 35% 17% 12%
A single country /a
United States of Europe
Current EU model
Reduced to simply
being about trade deals
between European
countries
Disbanding the
European Union
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view of the
size of the European Union (EU)?

17. THE CAMPAIGN

18. CAMPAIGN NEEDS A (RELEVANT) NAME
18
OR

19. FRAMING THE ISSUE EARLY
19

20. A FOCUSSED MESSAGE
20

21. IMMIGRATION LIKELY TO FEATURE
21

22. SOVEREIGNTY AND NATIONALISM
22

23. “YES” WILL NEED TO FOCUS ON UNCERTAINTY OF
LIFE OUTSIDE EU
23

24. SECURITY OF JOBS AND THE ECONOMY
24

25. MESSENGER
25

26. CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENTS = VICTORY

27. WHO VOTES WINS
27

28. TARGETTING THOSE WHO VOTE
28
48%
48%
58%
67%
48%
56%
66%
11%
12%
10%
7%
13%
9%
8%
41%
40%
31%
26%
39%
35%
25%
DE
C2
C1
AB
55+
35-54
18-34
Stay In Don't know Leave
Q: If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether or not the UK should stay in or leave the European Union (EU) how would
you vote? Base: All GB adults (n=1,011), 3-5 May 2015.
Age
Social
Grade

29. WINNING THE BATTLE AND THE WAR
29

30. THANK YOU
Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling
@tom_ComRes
Tom Clarkson, Research Team Leader
@tomclarkson15