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22.06.2015 pro europa eu referendum presentation final
This document provides an analysis of the potential upcoming EU referendum in the UK. It begins by looking at historical public opinion trends on EU membership. It then examines the current state of play in polls, finding that a slim majority currently support remaining in the EU. The document notes that question wording can impact results and draws lessons from previous Scottish and UK referendums. It analyzes the political context around issues like trust in politicians, UKIP support, and attitudes toward the EU. Finally, it considers factors that may be important in the referendum campaign such as messaging, immigration, sovereignty, uncertainty, jobs and the economy, spokespeople, targeting key demographics, and maintaining momentum.
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22.06.2015 pro europa eu referendum presentation final
- 1. TOWARDS AN EU REFERENDUM 22JUNE 2015 Tom Clarkson @tomclarkson15 Tom Mludzinski @tom_ComRes
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- 4. THE STATE OFPLAY Leave 33% 16% ComRes Tracker Question Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether or not the UK should stay in or leave the European Union (EU), how would you vote?” Base: Telephone poll of 1,000 GB adults 29-31 May 2015. Split sample: 500 adults asked each version of the version Stay in 51%
- 5. HOW IMPORTANT ISQUESTION WORDING? 5 Yes 58% 11% Proposed Government Wording of Referendum Question Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote on the following question: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” No 31%
- 6. LESSONS FROM SCOTLAND 6 Source:What Scotland Thinks 15 September 2014 STRENGTH OF THE STATUS QUO IMPORTANCE OF CLEAR OUTCOMES STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE MESSAGES, ALLIED TO POSITIVE VISION
- 7. AV REFERENDUM: AWARNING AGAINST COMPLACENCY 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 AV FPTP Source: UK Polling Report
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- 9. EUROPE IS ALOW PRIORITY RELATIVE TO OTHER ISSUES 9 49% 44% 23% 20% 20% 18% 18% 17% 16% 16% 10% Managing the NHS Controlling immigration Keeping down the cost of everyday items Promoting economic growth Making sure the benefits of economic growth are felt by all Making the welfare system fairer Reducing the Government’s budget deficit Providing adequate care for the elderly Redefining Britain's relationship with the EU Improving housing affordability Improving the education system Q. Which of the following do you think should be the biggest priorities for the Government at the present time? Please select up to three. Base: British adults (n=2,036), April 2015
- 10. CONSERVATIVE ECONOMIC TRUST 10 40 28 33 19 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 octobre,2010 novembre,2010 décembre,2010 janvier,2011 février,2011 mars,2011 avril,2011 mai,2011 juin,2011 juillet,2011 août,2011 septembre,2011 octobre,2011 novembre,2011 décembre,2011 janvier,2012 février,2012 mars,2012 avril,2012 mai,2012 juin,2012 juillet,2012 août,2012 septembre,2012 octobre,2012 novembre,2012 décembre,2012 janvier,2013 février,2013 mars,2013 avril,2013 mai,2013 juin,2013 juillet,2013 août,2013 septembre,2013 octobre,2013 novembre,2013 décembre,2013 janvier,2014 février,2014 mars,2014 avril,2014 mai,2014 juin,2014 juillet,2014 août,2014 septembre,2014 octobre,2014 novembre,2014 décembre,2014 janvier,2015 février,2015 mars,2015 avril,2015 % PrimeMinister, David Cameron Leader of the Opposition, Ed Miliband Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls Q. Do you, or would you, trust each of the following politicians to see the country through the current economic situation? (% Who say yes)
- 11. UKIP: A SLOWPUNCTURE? 30 28 29 31 34 35 36 34 36 35 35 35 30 31 32 30 32 35 32 33 32 35 32 34 9 9 12 8 8 8 9 12 8 7 9 9 19 18 16 17 13 10 12 12 10 11 14 12 4 7 5 7 8 6 5 4 5 6 4 4 oct./2014 nov./2014 déc./2014 janv./2015 févr./2015 mars/2015 avr./2015 Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave
- 12. FARAGE: A DIVISIVEFIGURE 12 38% “irritating” 37% “weird” 24% “out of touch with ordinary people” 21% “intelligent” 18% “comes across as someone like me” 22% FAVOURABLE 50% UNFAVOURABLE
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- 14. LOW SATISFACTION WITHTHE EU 14 13% 16% 19% 19% 20% 20% 46% 26% 22% Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. To what extent are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the European Union in its current form?
- 15. BRITAIN WANTS LESSEU INTERFERENCE 15 7% 13% 13% 18% 18% 19% 42% 44% 49% 29% 38% 38% 33% 37% 31% 38% 28% 21% 64% 49% 49% 49% 46% 49% 20% 28% 30% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Involvement of the EU in the affairs of your country More involvement About same level Less involvement Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
- 16. QUO VADIS EUROPA? 16 7%24% 44% 25%UK 11% 25% 44% 20% 22% 42% 23% 14% 5% 49% 34% 12% 23% 50% 17% 10% 6% 50% 31% 14% 45% 18% 23% 13% 20% 27% 36% 17% 37% 35% 17% 12% A single country /a United States of Europe Current EU model Reduced to simply being about trade deals between European countries Disbanding the European Union Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view of the size of the European Union (EU)?
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- 18. CAMPAIGN NEEDS A(RELEVANT) NAME 18 OR
- 19. FRAMING THE ISSUEEARLY 19
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- 21. IMMIGRATION LIKELY TOFEATURE 21
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- 23. “YES” WILL NEEDTO FOCUS ON UNCERTAINTY OF LIFE OUTSIDE EU 23
- 24. SECURITY OF JOBSAND THE ECONOMY 24
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- 26. CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENTS =VICTORY
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- 28. TARGETTING THOSE WHOVOTE 28 48% 48% 58% 67% 48% 56% 66% 11% 12% 10% 7% 13% 9% 8% 41% 40% 31% 26% 39% 35% 25% DE C2 C1 AB 55+ 35-54 18-34 Stay In Don't know Leave Q: If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether or not the UK should stay in or leave the European Union (EU) how would you vote? Base: All GB adults (n=1,011), 3-5 May 2015. Age Social Grade
- 29. WINNING THE BATTLEAND THE WAR 29
- 30. THANK YOU Tom Mludzinski,Director of Political Polling @tom_ComRes Tom Clarkson, Research Team Leader @tomclarkson15