The document discusses how average stock market returns of 10% per year over 80 years obscure the actual variability in annual returns, which ranged from -43% to 56%. It notes that very few annual returns were actually between 9-11% and that planning based on average returns does not account for the reality that returns can widely vary. The document suggests that starting points in the market that differ can have significant impacts on outcomes for investors due to the non-normal nature of returns.

2. Average
is
not
normal

3. THE LAST
80 YEARS
THE
STOCK
MARKET

4. AVERAGED
10 percent

6. Average
is
not
normal

7. during those
80 years

8. ANNUAL
RETURNS
LOOKED
LIKE
THIS

9. 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33
34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6
4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8
-10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9
28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27
-3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17
2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21
31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15

11. HOW MANY OF THOSE
RETURNS

12. WERE
BETWEEN

13. 9 AND
11
percent

14. OR EVEN CLOSE TO:
average

15. 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33
34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6
4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8
-10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9
28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27
-3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17
2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21
31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15

17. 2
OUT OF
80

18. Average
is
not
normal

19. SO YOU MAY BE
PLANNING
ON

22. IN
REALITY
YOU
WILL
EXPERIENCE

24. DOES IT
MATTER
?

25. what
if
you
started

26. HERE

27. VS.

28. HERE

29. THEN

30. it
would
have
mattered
to
YOU

31. Average
is
not
normal

32. join the conversation:
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