The document is a report on grain production and exports in Ukraine from 2001-2017. Some key points: - Grain production has increased significantly from around 35 million metric tons in 2001 to over 70 million metric tons in recent years. Exports have also risen but at a slightly slower pace. - Wheat, corn, and barley are the largest crops. Wheat production was around 27 million metric tons in 2017/2018 while corn was nearly 25 million tons. - Transportation and export capacity will need to continue expanding to accommodate rising production levels. The number of railcars transporting grain and average monthly exports have both increased year-over-year. - Global grain import demand is forecasted to rise

1. UKRAINIAN GRAIN:
S&D balances
President
Nickolay Gorbachov
24.04.2018 1

2. GRAIN PRODUCTION AND
EXPORT
2001-2017
24/04/2018 CONFIDENTIEL2
9,521
11,235
3,654
11,640
13,976
11,096
5,404
28,376
23,103
14,936
23,456
25,522
35,244
38,703
42,880
47,72746,595
49,258
41,930
39,591
24,863
39,094
40,964 41,652
34,237
63,591
51,630
47,325
61,401
51,984
71,333
74,489
69,387
82,535 82,381
86,892
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
export
production
Linear (export)

3. GRAIN PRODUCTION AND EXPORT thd. mt
24.04.20183
61,848
43,300
85,710
48,885
59,811
40,600
81,796
46,320
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Crop (without oilseeds) Export (without oilseeds) Crop ALL GRAINS Export ALL GRAINS
2018/2019 2017/2018
3%
5%
5%
6%

4. WHEAT thd. mt
24.04.20184
18,000
27,048
17,000
26,459
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Export Crop
2018/2019 2017/2018

5. BARLEY thd. mt
24.04.20185
4,300
7,800
4,600
8,602
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Export Crop
2018/2019 2017/2018

6. CORN thd. mt
24.04.20186
21,000
27,000
19,000
24,750
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Export Crop
2018/2019 2017/2018

7. SOY thd. mt
24.04.20187
2,000
3,990
2,700
3,990
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Export crop
2018/2019 2017/2018

8. PRODUCTION AND EXPORT EVOLUTION
24.04.20188
Marketing year Yield, t/h Changers, in
%
2002-2006 2,02
2006-2010 2,37 18
2010-2014 2,60 10
2014-2018 3,36 30
2018-2022 3,99 19
Sown aria, M hec.
2002-2006 19,455
2006-2010 21,268 9
2010-2014 23,910 12
2014-2018 23,628 -1
2018-2022 25,248 7
Domestic
consumption
2002-2006 22,925
2006-2010 24,080 5
2010-2014 28,411 18
2014-2018 28,834 2
2018-2022 31,193 8
19,455 21,268
23,910 23,628 25,248
36,128
47,777
58,011
77,198
100,803
22,925 24,080
28,411 28,836 31,193
10,126
16,995
24,790
43,976
69,610
2.02
2.37
2.60
3.36
3.99
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2002-2006 2006-2010 2010-2014 2014-2018 2018-2022
seeded thd.ha Crop Domestic consumption
Export yield Linear (Export)

9. GRAIN SUPPLY CHAIN CAPACITY
24.04.20189
30 mmt ~ 67%
12,6 mmt ~28%*
2,2mmt ~ 5%
Inland storage
capacity ~800 silos
= 40 mmt
Port storage
capacity ~ 3,3 mmt
Transshipment
capacity ~ 60 mmt
Production ~ 85 mmt Transport ~ 45 mmt Export ~ 45 mmt
14 000 rw cars
* prior to limitations

10. Loading capacity
715 000 mt/day Transshipment capacity
250 000 mt/day
Rw capacity
117 000 mt/day
Port stations
capacity
~ 200 000
mt/day*
*All types of cargo
**Grain wagons
Discharge capacity
~ 182 000 mt/day**
24/04/2018 CONFIDENTIEL10
BOTTLENECKS – WAGONS, DIS.CAPACITY, STATIONS

13. TRANSPORTATION AND EXPORT
GRAIN EVOLUTION
Marketing
year
Average
loaded
number
of
wagons
per
month
Average
transported
by RW per
month, ml
tons
Average
export
per
month,
ml tons
2014-15 39 089 2 540 769 3 225 250
2015-16 41 819 2 718 262 3 573 294
2016-17 51 925 3 375 103 3 977 250
2017-18* 49 814 3 237 921 3 666 667
2022* 76 923 5 000 000 5 833 333
24/04/2018 CONFIDENTIEL13
2,540,769 2,718,262
3,375,103
3,237,921
5,000,000
39,089 41,819
51,925 49,814
76,923
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2022
средний перевезенный тоннаж в месяц, тонн
средний експорт в месяц, млн тонн
среднее кол-во вагонов в месяц погружено, шт

14. WORLD IMPORT DYNAMICS FORECAST, thd tons
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2017-2026
24.04.201814
168088 171499
176045 180267 184507 188709
139297 137256 139406
144426
149015 153315
37926
38880 40876 42653 44436 46119
42293 43311 45173 47018 48864
50768
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
thdtons
Year
Wheat Corn Others Rice
PRODUCT
IMPORT DYNAMICS,
2016 / 2026
Wheat +20 621 +12%
Corn +14 018 +10%
Others +8 193 +22%
Rice +8 475 +20%

15. Thanks for your attention
UKRAINIAN GRAIN ASSOCIATION
+38044 492 39 68
http://www.uga.ua
inbox@uga.kiev.ua
24.04.2018 15