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74.9%
55.4%
21.2%
17.5%
5.6%
20.9%
6.8%
20.9%
47.9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
7.3%
7.1%
2.6%
3.2%
0.1%
1.2%
2.5%
3.6%
5.5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
104.6%
89.0%
15.9%
21.0%
5.2%
9.4%
16.4%
35.4%
65.8%
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
11.1%
11.5%
2.3%
2.9%
-3.8%
5.8%
-6.4%
5.7%
8.3%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
Region Month Qtr YOY
Sydney -1.3% 0.0% 11.1% 14.5% $872,300
Melbourne -1.7% 0.7% 11.5% 14.8% $665,000
Brisbane 0.3% 1.2% 2.3% 6.7% $490,000
Adelaide 0.8% 2.0% 2.9% 7.1% $432,000
Perth -0.4% -0.4% -3.8% -0.2% $481,500
Hobart -4.8% -1.0% 5.8% 11.4% $350,000
Darwin -3.5% -0.1% -6.4% -1.8% $460,000
Canberra -0.1% -1.5% 5.7% 10.1% $600,000
Combined capitals -1.1% 0.4% 8.3% 11.8% $630,000
Rest of State* -0.2% 0.6% 4.5% $400,000
Median dwelling
price
Change in dwelling values Total gross
returns
National Media Release
CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index, May 2017 Results
Released: Thursday June 1, 2017 www.corelogic.com.au/news
* Rest of state change in values are for houses only to end of April 2017
Multiple indicators point to softer housing market conditions
The CoreLogic May Home Value Index results out today confirmed that the capital
gains trend has slowed over recent months with dwelling values edging 0.4% higher
over the three months ending May 2017.
Cumulative change in dwelling
values from Jan 2009 to
current (Post GFC growth)
Change in dwelling values
over past twelve months
Highlights over the three months to May 2017
• Best performing capital city: Adelaide +2.0%
• Weakest performing capital city: Canberra -1.5%
• Highest rental yields: Hobart houses with gross rental yield of
5.3% and Hobart Units at 5.6%
• Lowest rental yields: Melbourne houses with gross rental
yield of 2.7% and Sydney & Darwin units at 3.9%
• Most expensive city: Sydney with a median dwelling price of
$872,300
• Most affordable city: Hobart with a median dwelling price of
$350,000
Index results as at May 31, 2017
Annual change in dwelling
values over past 10 years
Change in dwelling values over
growth cycle to date
According to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless,
Australia’s capital cities saw a cooling of housing market
conditions over the seasonally weak month of May with the
CoreLogic hedonic home value index reporting a -1.1% fall in
dwelling values across the combined capitals. The month-on-
month fall was largely the result of declines in Sydney and
Melbourne, where dwelling values have recorded significant
gains over the current growth cycle to date.
He said, “The past three months has seen capital city
dwelling values rise by a modest 0.4%, with four of the eight
capitals recording a fall. Over the past three months, Sydney
dwelling values are unchanged while Melbourne values have
increased by 0.7%.”
“The trend in growth rates across the smaller capital cities
was mixed with dwelling values across Brisbane and
Adelaide continuing to inch higher while values in Perth and
Darwin showed further easing over the most recent rolling
quarter. A steep drop in the Hobart index has reversed the
gains recorded over the previous quarter and the Canberra
index was also -1.5% lower over the past three months.”
“The May home value results should be viewed in the context
of demonstrated seasonality; values have fallen during May
in four of the past five years. Reading through the
seasonality indicates that value growth in the market has lost
momentum, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where
affordability constraints are more evident and investors have
comprised a larger proportion of housing demand.”
Mr Lawless said, “Adding to the complexity in reading the
current market is the recent Australian Prudential Regulation
Authority (APRA) announcements at the end of March for a
new round of macroprudential measures aimed at slowing
the pace of interest only lending.”
Subsequently, he said, “Mortgage rates are continuing to
trend higher, particularly for investors.”
“Another factor that is likely contributing to slower growth
conditions is a dent in consumer confidence. Consumer
sentiment towards housing, as measured by Westpac and
the Melbourne Institute, has shown a marked downturn in
May.
“In particular, the Westpac ‘time to buy a dwelling index’, fell
6.5% over the month. According to Westpac, ‘consumer
sentiment towards housing shows an increasingly negative
view’.
Other market indicators suggest a slower pace of growth
such as a reduction in market activity, a moderating trend in
auction clearance rates and rising advertised stock levels.
Turnover down: CoreLogic estimates of dwelling turnover for the combined capital cities were tracking 6.9% lower year-on-
year. Mr Lawless said, “It appears that housing activity has eased which is attributable to a range of factors including affordability
constraints, tighter credit policies, rising mortgage rates and a downturn in consumer sentiment towards housing.”
The largest year-on-year falls have been in Melbourne (-12.4%), Brisbane (-11.1%) and Sydney (-4.3%) suggesting that housing
demand has eased relative to a year ago across the three largest cities. Lower activity in the market is also supported by a
slowdown in valuation activity across CoreLogic valuation platforms which account for more than 95% of mortgage related
valuation instructions. After rebounding from the slower April reading, CoreLogic’s Mortgage Index was tracking 9.3% lower than
at the same time last year over May.
Auction markets moderating: Auction markets remained healthy throughout May, however, there has been some moderation
in the clearance rate which has been particularly evident in Sydney, where clearance rates have trended down from the 80-85%
range to the 70-75% range from the second half of April through to the end of May. Melbourne clearance rates have generally
held firmer, tracking in the mid-to-high 70% range over the month. According to Mr Lawless, “The final week of May saw the
Melbourne clearance rate reach 74%, which is the lowest reading so far this year and Sydney recorded a clearance rate of 73%,
which is the third lowest clearance rate over the year to date.”
Advertised stock levels nudging higher: The number of residential properties advertised for sale has started to edge higher
across some cities, with Sydney in particular seeing a surge in newly advertised stock, up 15% compared with last year, while
total advertised listings are now 6.3% higher than a year ago. According to Mr Lawless, “Higher stock levels should provide
prospective buyers with more choice and reduce some of the urgency that has been contributing to rapid selling times and price
escalation”.
Yields stabilising: The moderation in the pace of capital
gains at a time when weekly rents are gradually rising has
seen rental yields edge higher over the month. Capital city
asking rents were 4.2% higher over the past year; the
strongest growth rate since March 2014. Mr Lawless said,
“The rise in rents relative to the slip in dwelling values was
enough to push gross rental yields off their record lows.
Despite the moderate increase, gross rental yields remain
well below their long term average in Sydney and Melbourne.”
He said, “If investors are concerned about the run of capital
growth in the two largest cities coming to an end, the more
astute investors may change their focus towards the rental
return given the possibility of lower capital growth potential.”
Based on the most recent data from the Australian Bureau of
Statistics, investors comprised 48% of the value of new
mortgage demand (excluding refinances) in March, well above
the long term average, but the lowest proportion of mortgage
demand since August last year.
Mr Lawless said, “Considering we are yet to see the full effect
of the recent round of macroprudential measures flow
through, there is a high possibility that investor activity, and
consequently housing demand, will slow further during 2017.”
“Investor demand will also be dampened due to higher
mortgage rates and tighter credit policies as well as the added
disincentive of low rental yields and reduced ability to claim
depreciation and travel expenses.”
National Media Release cont’d
CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index Results
Annual number of settled dwelling sales,
combined capitals
Gross rental yields, houses and units
Houses Units
2.8%
2.7%
4.0%
3.9%
3.7%
5.3%
5.0%
4.2%
3.1%
0% 2% 4% 6%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined
capitals
3.9%
4.2%
5.3%
4.7%
4.1%
5.6%
3.9%
5.3%
4.1%
0% 2% 4% 6%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined
capitals
“While we are expecting investment activity to slow, the fact is other asset classes aren’t likely to be as attractive as property to
investors. Cash and bonds continue to provide low but safe returns and equities remain volatile. Considering the alternatives,
we are likely to see property investment remain a popular option,” he said.
Mortgage rates are rising despite a stable cash rate: Discounted variable mortgage rates for investment purposes have
risen by 25 basis points on average through to the end of April 2017, and discounted variable rates for owner occupiers are 10
basis points higher. Even though mortgage rates remain low, higher repayment costs are likely to have a dampening effect on
housing demand against a backdrop of record high household debt and record lows in wages growth.
Mr Lawless said, “Mortgage rates could edge higher over coming months as lenders accommodate recent macroprudential
announcements within their credit policies. The funding levy announced in this year’s federal budget could also see higher
mortgage rates as lenders potentially pass on some of the associated costs.”
In closing, he said, “The jury is still out on whether the housing market has peaked, however if it hasn’t, a peak could be just
around the corner. Based on CoreLogic data, as well as other indicators, it’s fair to say that growth conditions appear to be
slowing in Sydney and Melbourne while the performance across other capital city regions remains mixed. The housing market
remains as diverse as ever and the flow of data over coming months will be critical to get a better understanding of the trends.”
Capital Growth to 31 May 2017 Sydney Melbourne
Brisbane -
Gold Coast Adelaide Perth
Australia 5
Capitals
(ASX) Hobart Darwin Canberra Brisbane
Australia
8 Capitals
Table 1A: All Dwellings
Month -1.3% -1.7% 0.9% 0.8% -0.4% -1.0% -4.8% -3.5% -0.1% 0.3% -1.1%
Quarter 0.0% 0.7% 2.0% 2.0% -0.4% 0.6% -1.0% -0.1% -1.5% 1.2% 0.4%
Year-to-Date 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% 3.2% -2.6% 2.7% 1.4% -6.0% 2.1% 0.9% 2.5%
Year-on-Year 11.1% 11.5% 4.0% 2.9% -3.8% 8.5% 5.8% -6.4% 5.7% 2.3% 8.3%
Total Return Year-on-Year 14.5% 14.8% 8.6% 7.1% -0.2% 12.0% 11.4% -1.8% 10.1% 6.7% 11.8%
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $872,300 $665,000 $500,000 $432,000 $481,500 $632,000 $350,000 $460,000 $600,000 $490,000 $630,000
Table 1B: Houses
Month -1.0% -1.5% 0.9% 1.2% -0.5% -0.8% -4.8% -2.9% 0.0% 0.4% -0.9%
Quarter 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 2.2% -0.3% 1.0% -1.9% -0.1% -1.3% 1.5% 0.9%
Year-to-Date 4.0% 3.5% 2.3% 3.3% -2.6% 3.0% 1.2% -5.1% 2.2% 1.2% 2.8%
Year-on-Year 12.1% 12.8% 4.4% 3.1% -4.2% 9.2% 6.1% -8.8% 5.5% 3.0% 9.0%
Total Return Year-on-Year 15.3% 16.0% 8.8% 7.3% -0.6% 12.6% 11.7% -4.1% 9.8% 7.3% 12.4%
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $1,020,000 $745,000 $550,000 $460,000 $500,000 $675,000 $381,600 $487,500 $690,000 $525,000 $670,000
Table 1C: Units
Month -2.7% -3.8% 0.9% -3.0% 1.7% -2.4% -5.0% -5.9% -2.0% -0.1% -2.6%
Quarter -3.2% -3.9% 0.6% 0.7% -0.8% -2.7% 8.8% 0.3% -3.5% -1.7% -2.9%
Year-to-Date 1.6% -1.9% -0.2% 1.7% -1.7% 0.4% 3.9% -9.5% -0.1% -2.2% 0.2%
Year-on-Year 6.1% -0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 2.1% 3.6% 2.7% 4.9% 8.1% -4.5% 3.4%
Total Return Year-on-Year 10.2% 3.8% 6.0% 5.1% 6.5% 7.9% 8.6% 9.1% 13.8% 0.6% 7.6%
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $742,900 $525,000 $400,500 $365,000 $405,000 $550,000 $311,500 $420,000 $426,000 $390,000 $550,000
Table 1D: Rental Yield Results
Houses 2.8% 2.7% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.1% 5.3% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.1%
Units 3.9% 4.2% 5.3% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 5.6% 3.9% 5.3% 5.3% 4.1%
The indices in grey shading have been designed for trading environments in partnership with the Australian Securities Exchange (www.asx.com.au). Indices
under blue shading (Hobart, Darwin, Canberra, Brisbane and the 8 capital city aggregate) are calculated under the same methodology however are not
currently planned to be part of the trading environment.
*The median price is the middle price of all settled sales over the three months to the end of the final month. Median prices are provided as an indicator of
what price a typical home sold for over the most recent quarter. The median price has no direct relationship with the CoreLogic Hedonic Index value. The
change in the Index value over time reflects the underlying capital growth rates generated by residential property in the relevant region.
The CoreLogic Hedonic Index growth rates are not ordinarily influenced by capital expenditure on homes, compositional changes in the types of properties
being transacted, or variations in the type and quality of new homes manufactured over time. The CoreLogic ‘index values’ are not, therefore, the same as the
‘median price’ sold during a given period. See the methodology below for further details.
Methodology: The CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional
bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the
attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each
property comprising the index into its various formational and locational attributes, differing observed sales values for each property can be separated into
those associated with varying attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Also, by understanding the value
associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there
is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the
market value of the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. CoreLogic owns and maintains Australia's largest
property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. CoreLogic augments this data with
recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed
methodological information please visit www.corelogic.com.au
Recent updates to the CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index – April/May 2016
CoreLogic's periodic audits of analytic methods and algorithms identified an improvement to the Hedonic Index sampling methodology in early 2016 which
was applied throughout April. CoreLogic implemented a dynamic mechanism for excluding extreme (outlier) transactions. After rigorous back testing and
validation, it was determined that dynamic price filters would deliver a more robust and precise output. As a result of these changes, the CoreLogic Hedonic
Index recorded higher than normal intra-month volatility in the capital city index readings throughout April and May. This improvement will ensure that the
Hedonic Home Value Index will continue to represent the timeliest and most precise measurement of housing market conditions available.
Due to the aforementioned changes, year on year comparisons between May 2017 and May 2016 will be slightly affected.
For more information on the CoreLogic Indices, please go to http://www.corelogic.com.au
About CoreLogic CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and analytics company in
the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering
through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the
company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over
three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance
information.
With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services to consumers,
investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value
to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth
opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call
1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au
CoreLogic Home Value Index tables
National Media Release cont’d

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2017 06--core logichomevalueindexjune+17

  • 1. 74.9% 55.4% 21.2% 17.5% 5.6% 20.9% 6.8% 20.9% 47.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals 7.3% 7.1% 2.6% 3.2% 0.1% 1.2% 2.5% 3.6% 5.5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals 104.6% 89.0% 15.9% 21.0% 5.2% 9.4% 16.4% 35.4% 65.8% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals 11.1% 11.5% 2.3% 2.9% -3.8% 5.8% -6.4% 5.7% 8.3% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals Region Month Qtr YOY Sydney -1.3% 0.0% 11.1% 14.5% $872,300 Melbourne -1.7% 0.7% 11.5% 14.8% $665,000 Brisbane 0.3% 1.2% 2.3% 6.7% $490,000 Adelaide 0.8% 2.0% 2.9% 7.1% $432,000 Perth -0.4% -0.4% -3.8% -0.2% $481,500 Hobart -4.8% -1.0% 5.8% 11.4% $350,000 Darwin -3.5% -0.1% -6.4% -1.8% $460,000 Canberra -0.1% -1.5% 5.7% 10.1% $600,000 Combined capitals -1.1% 0.4% 8.3% 11.8% $630,000 Rest of State* -0.2% 0.6% 4.5% $400,000 Median dwelling price Change in dwelling values Total gross returns National Media Release CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index, May 2017 Results Released: Thursday June 1, 2017 www.corelogic.com.au/news * Rest of state change in values are for houses only to end of April 2017 Multiple indicators point to softer housing market conditions The CoreLogic May Home Value Index results out today confirmed that the capital gains trend has slowed over recent months with dwelling values edging 0.4% higher over the three months ending May 2017. Cumulative change in dwelling values from Jan 2009 to current (Post GFC growth) Change in dwelling values over past twelve months Highlights over the three months to May 2017 • Best performing capital city: Adelaide +2.0% • Weakest performing capital city: Canberra -1.5% • Highest rental yields: Hobart houses with gross rental yield of 5.3% and Hobart Units at 5.6% • Lowest rental yields: Melbourne houses with gross rental yield of 2.7% and Sydney & Darwin units at 3.9% • Most expensive city: Sydney with a median dwelling price of $872,300 • Most affordable city: Hobart with a median dwelling price of $350,000 Index results as at May 31, 2017 Annual change in dwelling values over past 10 years Change in dwelling values over growth cycle to date According to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless, Australia’s capital cities saw a cooling of housing market conditions over the seasonally weak month of May with the CoreLogic hedonic home value index reporting a -1.1% fall in dwelling values across the combined capitals. The month-on- month fall was largely the result of declines in Sydney and Melbourne, where dwelling values have recorded significant gains over the current growth cycle to date. He said, “The past three months has seen capital city dwelling values rise by a modest 0.4%, with four of the eight capitals recording a fall. Over the past three months, Sydney dwelling values are unchanged while Melbourne values have increased by 0.7%.” “The trend in growth rates across the smaller capital cities was mixed with dwelling values across Brisbane and Adelaide continuing to inch higher while values in Perth and Darwin showed further easing over the most recent rolling quarter. A steep drop in the Hobart index has reversed the gains recorded over the previous quarter and the Canberra index was also -1.5% lower over the past three months.” “The May home value results should be viewed in the context of demonstrated seasonality; values have fallen during May in four of the past five years. Reading through the seasonality indicates that value growth in the market has lost momentum, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where affordability constraints are more evident and investors have comprised a larger proportion of housing demand.” Mr Lawless said, “Adding to the complexity in reading the current market is the recent Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announcements at the end of March for a new round of macroprudential measures aimed at slowing the pace of interest only lending.” Subsequently, he said, “Mortgage rates are continuing to trend higher, particularly for investors.” “Another factor that is likely contributing to slower growth conditions is a dent in consumer confidence. Consumer sentiment towards housing, as measured by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, has shown a marked downturn in May. “In particular, the Westpac ‘time to buy a dwelling index’, fell 6.5% over the month. According to Westpac, ‘consumer sentiment towards housing shows an increasingly negative view’. Other market indicators suggest a slower pace of growth such as a reduction in market activity, a moderating trend in auction clearance rates and rising advertised stock levels. Turnover down: CoreLogic estimates of dwelling turnover for the combined capital cities were tracking 6.9% lower year-on- year. Mr Lawless said, “It appears that housing activity has eased which is attributable to a range of factors including affordability constraints, tighter credit policies, rising mortgage rates and a downturn in consumer sentiment towards housing.”
  • 2. The largest year-on-year falls have been in Melbourne (-12.4%), Brisbane (-11.1%) and Sydney (-4.3%) suggesting that housing demand has eased relative to a year ago across the three largest cities. Lower activity in the market is also supported by a slowdown in valuation activity across CoreLogic valuation platforms which account for more than 95% of mortgage related valuation instructions. After rebounding from the slower April reading, CoreLogic’s Mortgage Index was tracking 9.3% lower than at the same time last year over May. Auction markets moderating: Auction markets remained healthy throughout May, however, there has been some moderation in the clearance rate which has been particularly evident in Sydney, where clearance rates have trended down from the 80-85% range to the 70-75% range from the second half of April through to the end of May. Melbourne clearance rates have generally held firmer, tracking in the mid-to-high 70% range over the month. According to Mr Lawless, “The final week of May saw the Melbourne clearance rate reach 74%, which is the lowest reading so far this year and Sydney recorded a clearance rate of 73%, which is the third lowest clearance rate over the year to date.” Advertised stock levels nudging higher: The number of residential properties advertised for sale has started to edge higher across some cities, with Sydney in particular seeing a surge in newly advertised stock, up 15% compared with last year, while total advertised listings are now 6.3% higher than a year ago. According to Mr Lawless, “Higher stock levels should provide prospective buyers with more choice and reduce some of the urgency that has been contributing to rapid selling times and price escalation”. Yields stabilising: The moderation in the pace of capital gains at a time when weekly rents are gradually rising has seen rental yields edge higher over the month. Capital city asking rents were 4.2% higher over the past year; the strongest growth rate since March 2014. Mr Lawless said, “The rise in rents relative to the slip in dwelling values was enough to push gross rental yields off their record lows. Despite the moderate increase, gross rental yields remain well below their long term average in Sydney and Melbourne.” He said, “If investors are concerned about the run of capital growth in the two largest cities coming to an end, the more astute investors may change their focus towards the rental return given the possibility of lower capital growth potential.” Based on the most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, investors comprised 48% of the value of new mortgage demand (excluding refinances) in March, well above the long term average, but the lowest proportion of mortgage demand since August last year. Mr Lawless said, “Considering we are yet to see the full effect of the recent round of macroprudential measures flow through, there is a high possibility that investor activity, and consequently housing demand, will slow further during 2017.” “Investor demand will also be dampened due to higher mortgage rates and tighter credit policies as well as the added disincentive of low rental yields and reduced ability to claim depreciation and travel expenses.” National Media Release cont’d CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index Results Annual number of settled dwelling sales, combined capitals Gross rental yields, houses and units Houses Units 2.8% 2.7% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 5.3% 5.0% 4.2% 3.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals 3.9% 4.2% 5.3% 4.7% 4.1% 5.6% 3.9% 5.3% 4.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals “While we are expecting investment activity to slow, the fact is other asset classes aren’t likely to be as attractive as property to investors. Cash and bonds continue to provide low but safe returns and equities remain volatile. Considering the alternatives, we are likely to see property investment remain a popular option,” he said. Mortgage rates are rising despite a stable cash rate: Discounted variable mortgage rates for investment purposes have risen by 25 basis points on average through to the end of April 2017, and discounted variable rates for owner occupiers are 10 basis points higher. Even though mortgage rates remain low, higher repayment costs are likely to have a dampening effect on housing demand against a backdrop of record high household debt and record lows in wages growth. Mr Lawless said, “Mortgage rates could edge higher over coming months as lenders accommodate recent macroprudential announcements within their credit policies. The funding levy announced in this year’s federal budget could also see higher mortgage rates as lenders potentially pass on some of the associated costs.” In closing, he said, “The jury is still out on whether the housing market has peaked, however if it hasn’t, a peak could be just around the corner. Based on CoreLogic data, as well as other indicators, it’s fair to say that growth conditions appear to be slowing in Sydney and Melbourne while the performance across other capital city regions remains mixed. The housing market remains as diverse as ever and the flow of data over coming months will be critical to get a better understanding of the trends.”
  • 3. Capital Growth to 31 May 2017 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane - Gold Coast Adelaide Perth Australia 5 Capitals (ASX) Hobart Darwin Canberra Brisbane Australia 8 Capitals Table 1A: All Dwellings Month -1.3% -1.7% 0.9% 0.8% -0.4% -1.0% -4.8% -3.5% -0.1% 0.3% -1.1% Quarter 0.0% 0.7% 2.0% 2.0% -0.4% 0.6% -1.0% -0.1% -1.5% 1.2% 0.4% Year-to-Date 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% 3.2% -2.6% 2.7% 1.4% -6.0% 2.1% 0.9% 2.5% Year-on-Year 11.1% 11.5% 4.0% 2.9% -3.8% 8.5% 5.8% -6.4% 5.7% 2.3% 8.3% Total Return Year-on-Year 14.5% 14.8% 8.6% 7.1% -0.2% 12.0% 11.4% -1.8% 10.1% 6.7% 11.8% Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $872,300 $665,000 $500,000 $432,000 $481,500 $632,000 $350,000 $460,000 $600,000 $490,000 $630,000 Table 1B: Houses Month -1.0% -1.5% 0.9% 1.2% -0.5% -0.8% -4.8% -2.9% 0.0% 0.4% -0.9% Quarter 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 2.2% -0.3% 1.0% -1.9% -0.1% -1.3% 1.5% 0.9% Year-to-Date 4.0% 3.5% 2.3% 3.3% -2.6% 3.0% 1.2% -5.1% 2.2% 1.2% 2.8% Year-on-Year 12.1% 12.8% 4.4% 3.1% -4.2% 9.2% 6.1% -8.8% 5.5% 3.0% 9.0% Total Return Year-on-Year 15.3% 16.0% 8.8% 7.3% -0.6% 12.6% 11.7% -4.1% 9.8% 7.3% 12.4% Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $1,020,000 $745,000 $550,000 $460,000 $500,000 $675,000 $381,600 $487,500 $690,000 $525,000 $670,000 Table 1C: Units Month -2.7% -3.8% 0.9% -3.0% 1.7% -2.4% -5.0% -5.9% -2.0% -0.1% -2.6% Quarter -3.2% -3.9% 0.6% 0.7% -0.8% -2.7% 8.8% 0.3% -3.5% -1.7% -2.9% Year-to-Date 1.6% -1.9% -0.2% 1.7% -1.7% 0.4% 3.9% -9.5% -0.1% -2.2% 0.2% Year-on-Year 6.1% -0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 2.1% 3.6% 2.7% 4.9% 8.1% -4.5% 3.4% Total Return Year-on-Year 10.2% 3.8% 6.0% 5.1% 6.5% 7.9% 8.6% 9.1% 13.8% 0.6% 7.6% Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $742,900 $525,000 $400,500 $365,000 $405,000 $550,000 $311,500 $420,000 $426,000 $390,000 $550,000 Table 1D: Rental Yield Results Houses 2.8% 2.7% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.1% 5.3% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.1% Units 3.9% 4.2% 5.3% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 5.6% 3.9% 5.3% 5.3% 4.1% The indices in grey shading have been designed for trading environments in partnership with the Australian Securities Exchange (www.asx.com.au). Indices under blue shading (Hobart, Darwin, Canberra, Brisbane and the 8 capital city aggregate) are calculated under the same methodology however are not currently planned to be part of the trading environment. *The median price is the middle price of all settled sales over the three months to the end of the final month. Median prices are provided as an indicator of what price a typical home sold for over the most recent quarter. The median price has no direct relationship with the CoreLogic Hedonic Index value. The change in the Index value over time reflects the underlying capital growth rates generated by residential property in the relevant region. The CoreLogic Hedonic Index growth rates are not ordinarily influenced by capital expenditure on homes, compositional changes in the types of properties being transacted, or variations in the type and quality of new homes manufactured over time. The CoreLogic ‘index values’ are not, therefore, the same as the ‘median price’ sold during a given period. See the methodology below for further details. Methodology: The CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property comprising the index into its various formational and locational attributes, differing observed sales values for each property can be separated into those associated with varying attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Also, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. CoreLogic owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. CoreLogic augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed methodological information please visit www.corelogic.com.au Recent updates to the CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index – April/May 2016 CoreLogic's periodic audits of analytic methods and algorithms identified an improvement to the Hedonic Index sampling methodology in early 2016 which was applied throughout April. CoreLogic implemented a dynamic mechanism for excluding extreme (outlier) transactions. After rigorous back testing and validation, it was determined that dynamic price filters would deliver a more robust and precise output. As a result of these changes, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index recorded higher than normal intra-month volatility in the capital city index readings throughout April and May. This improvement will ensure that the Hedonic Home Value Index will continue to represent the timeliest and most precise measurement of housing market conditions available. Due to the aforementioned changes, year on year comparisons between May 2017 and May 2016 will be slightly affected. For more information on the CoreLogic Indices, please go to http://www.corelogic.com.au About CoreLogic CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and analytics company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au CoreLogic Home Value Index tables National Media Release cont’d