The purpose of this presentation is to provide an overview of the events and trends that transpired in the U.S. residential housing market for during the first quarter of 2017, and to provide an overview of the top five over-priced cities and under-priced cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index.
The document provides an overview and assessment of the U.S. residential housing market for the third quarter of 2020 by Adkins Capital Management. It summarizes unexpected increases in new and existing home sales despite the pandemic and economic impacts. It also analyzes the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions in response. Additionally, it identifies the top five most overpriced and underpriced cities based on an analysis of each city's median home price, household income, and justified mortgage interest rate. The document concludes by encouraging prospective home buyers to use its valuation tools to make prudent home purchasing decisions.
This monthly real estate report provides an overview of the current housing market conditions based on recent data and statistics. Key points include:
1) Home prices are falling at a slower rate indicating some stabilization, while existing home sales increased 29% from last month.
2) Mortgage rates remain near record lows below 5%, improving affordability, and first-time buyers are driving the market and reducing inventory levels.
3) The government is taking actions like expanding foreclosure prevention programs to help more struggling homeowners modify their loans and keep their homes.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate
Shawn Kormondy of Kelller Williams Realty and REIS GROUP, Inc. present "This Month in Real Estate, September 2009. This report features interesting data on who is buying, what those people are buying and how they are funding the purchase.
RealPulseAZ - February 2021 - Market ReviewNathan Holman
The document provides an overview of the US housing market in February 2021. It summarizes existing home sales data from 2020, forecasts for home sales and prices in 2021 from various analysts, and projections for mortgage rates. It also discusses factors that may impact housing inventory levels in 2021 such as homeowners waiting for vaccines before listing. The average forecasted home price increase for 2021 across analysts is 5%.
Housing activity remains above year-ago levels despite the expiration of tax credits. Home prices have stabilized with similar levels of distressed home sales as last year, though the economy still has further recovery ahead. Consumers are saving more and spending cautiously. While this reduces near-term spending, it positions households financially for the future. The Federal Reserve continues measures to support the economy through low interest rates and may reinvest maturing mortgage bonds to stimulate growth.
The document provides an overview and assessment of the U.S. residential housing market for the third quarter of 2020 by Adkins Capital Management. It summarizes unexpected increases in new and existing home sales despite the pandemic and economic impacts. It also analyzes the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions in response. Additionally, it identifies the top five most overpriced and underpriced cities based on an analysis of each city's median home price, household income, and justified mortgage interest rate. The document concludes by encouraging prospective home buyers to use its valuation tools to make prudent home purchasing decisions.
This monthly real estate report provides an overview of the current housing market conditions based on recent data and statistics. Key points include:
1) Home prices are falling at a slower rate indicating some stabilization, while existing home sales increased 29% from last month.
2) Mortgage rates remain near record lows below 5%, improving affordability, and first-time buyers are driving the market and reducing inventory levels.
3) The government is taking actions like expanding foreclosure prevention programs to help more struggling homeowners modify their loans and keep their homes.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate
Shawn Kormondy of Kelller Williams Realty and REIS GROUP, Inc. present "This Month in Real Estate, September 2009. This report features interesting data on who is buying, what those people are buying and how they are funding the purchase.
RealPulseAZ - February 2021 - Market ReviewNathan Holman
The document provides an overview of the US housing market in February 2021. It summarizes existing home sales data from 2020, forecasts for home sales and prices in 2021 from various analysts, and projections for mortgage rates. It also discusses factors that may impact housing inventory levels in 2021 such as homeowners waiting for vaccines before listing. The average forecasted home price increase for 2021 across analysts is 5%.
Housing activity remains above year-ago levels despite the expiration of tax credits. Home prices have stabilized with similar levels of distressed home sales as last year, though the economy still has further recovery ahead. Consumers are saving more and spending cautiously. While this reduces near-term spending, it positions households financially for the future. The Federal Reserve continues measures to support the economy through low interest rates and may reinvest maturing mortgage bonds to stimulate growth.
The document discusses recent housing market trends and government actions. It provides data on home sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government action extended the homebuyer tax credit deadline. Topics for home buyers, sellers, and owners include real estate investing opportunities and working with a local Keller Williams agent to understand the local market.
The document provides an overview of the real estate market in May 2009. It summarizes that home prices have fallen to 2003 levels and inventory has stabilized. Mortgage rates are below 5% and affordability is high, making it a favorable time for buyers. Government programs are also helping more homeowners modify their loans to avoid foreclosure.
The housing market recovery slowed in July after the homebuyer tax credit expired, with home sales falling below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months. However, home prices remained stable and mortgage rates set new record lows, maintaining historically high affordability. The job market and economy recovery remained concerns. New financial reform laws aimed to strengthen consumer protections for mortgages and credit reporting.
This document provides a summary of recent developments in the US housing market in August 2009. It discusses signs of recovery such as rising home sales and prices. It also summarizes key housing market indicators like inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government actions to help homeowners and first-time buyers are also outlined.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
This Month in Real Estate PowerPoint for U.S. Market - September 2010Keller Williams Careers
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, while home prices remained stable. Mortgage rates continued setting new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages and credit cards intended to protect consumers.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner compared to a 30-year loan.
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, though prices remained stable. Mortgage rates set new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages, credit reports, credit/debit cards, and creates a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner. Local lenders may offer more competitive rates than large banks.
This document summarizes recent trends in the US housing market and real estate industry. It finds that existing home sales increased for the fourth consecutive month in July, driven by first-time buyers. While home prices and inventory levels remain lower than last year, prices have stabilized and are rising slowly from early 2009 lows. Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, improving affordability. The economy may continue to face challenges but signs point to a recovery in 2010 supported by government programs.
The Genworth Homebuyer Confidence Index (HCI) measures Australian homeowners' and prospective homeowners' sentiment towards the housing market. The September 2013 HCI found that national homebuyer confidence fell from March to September, with one in four homeowners struggling to meet mortgage repayments in the past year due to underemployment and job insecurity. While homeowners remained optimistic about meeting future repayments, first homebuyer confidence declined significantly as more experienced mortgage stress in the past year.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. Government programs like the FDIC principal reduction program aim to help troubled homeowners. Jumbo mortgages are becoming more available again after tightening during the financial crisis. The document provides tips for homeowners regarding tax deductions and credits.
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization. Tips are provided for home sellers to make small, low-cost improvements.
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across North America. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help Keller Williams Realty realtors combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on the state of the real estate market.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US housing market in September 2009. It discusses signs of recovery including rising home sales and stabilizing home prices. Existing home sales increased for the 4th consecutive month in July. First-time buyers and distressed home sales continue to drive the market. Mortgage rates remain low, improving affordability. The government's homebuyer tax credit and "Cash for Clunkers" programs boosted the economy. Overall the market indicates continued recovery, though unemployment remains high.
The housing market continues to gradually improve without government support. While home prices and sales have declined compared to last year, inventory levels have returned to pre-tax credit levels. Low interest rates are encouraging buyers, but are expected to rise over 2012. Employment growth needs to continue for a full housing recovery, as jobs enable people to buy homes. Stimulus efforts will gradually wind down, but buyers still have favorable conditions in the market.
The document provides an industry update from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. It discusses 16 weeks of positive news in the housing market including the opening of debt markets, tax credit extensions, and falling mortgage rates. It also notes concerns around "shadow inventory," which refers to the large number of delinquent homes that will eventually hit the market and add supply. However, the document emphasizes that affordability is now the highest it's been in over 30 years, with half of all mortgages costing less than $1,000 per month. It concludes there is currently zero need to build new homes given oversupply issues and lack of demand due to high unemployment.
The document provides an overview of recent real estate market indicators and government actions in 3 paragraphs:
Paragraph 1 summarizes home sales numbers, median home prices, and inventory levels from December 2009. It notes a dip in home sales after the first-time homebuyer tax credit deadline but that sales remain above year-ago levels.
Paragraph 2 discusses the FHA tightening lending requirements by raising insurance fees, capping seller contributions, and requiring higher down payments for borrowers with poor credit starting in summer 2010. These changes aim to protect the FHA from needing taxpayer funds.
Paragraph 3 covers steps the government has taken to streamline the modification process and help foreclosures sell faster through an FHA policy change
Shawn Kormondy of Reis Group is a top producing real estate agent at a prestigious Beverly Hills real estate firm, Keller Williams Realty. He specializes in Hollywood Hills, West Hollywood, and Miracle Mile real estate. Shawn can be contacted by visiting one of his web sites, www.reisgroup.org or www.developweho.com
The following presentation provides an overview of the events and trends that took place in the residential housing environment for the first quarter of 2015 and provides an overview of the home price level for a select group of cities throughout the United States.
The document discusses recent housing market trends and government actions. It provides data on home sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government action extended the homebuyer tax credit deadline. Topics for home buyers, sellers, and owners include real estate investing opportunities and working with a local Keller Williams agent to understand the local market.
The document provides an overview of the real estate market in May 2009. It summarizes that home prices have fallen to 2003 levels and inventory has stabilized. Mortgage rates are below 5% and affordability is high, making it a favorable time for buyers. Government programs are also helping more homeowners modify their loans to avoid foreclosure.
The housing market recovery slowed in July after the homebuyer tax credit expired, with home sales falling below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months. However, home prices remained stable and mortgage rates set new record lows, maintaining historically high affordability. The job market and economy recovery remained concerns. New financial reform laws aimed to strengthen consumer protections for mortgages and credit reporting.
This document provides a summary of recent developments in the US housing market in August 2009. It discusses signs of recovery such as rising home sales and prices. It also summarizes key housing market indicators like inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government actions to help homeowners and first-time buyers are also outlined.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
This Month in Real Estate PowerPoint for U.S. Market - September 2010Keller Williams Careers
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, while home prices remained stable. Mortgage rates continued setting new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages and credit cards intended to protect consumers.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner compared to a 30-year loan.
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, though prices remained stable. Mortgage rates set new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages, credit reports, credit/debit cards, and creates a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner. Local lenders may offer more competitive rates than large banks.
This document summarizes recent trends in the US housing market and real estate industry. It finds that existing home sales increased for the fourth consecutive month in July, driven by first-time buyers. While home prices and inventory levels remain lower than last year, prices have stabilized and are rising slowly from early 2009 lows. Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, improving affordability. The economy may continue to face challenges but signs point to a recovery in 2010 supported by government programs.
The Genworth Homebuyer Confidence Index (HCI) measures Australian homeowners' and prospective homeowners' sentiment towards the housing market. The September 2013 HCI found that national homebuyer confidence fell from March to September, with one in four homeowners struggling to meet mortgage repayments in the past year due to underemployment and job insecurity. While homeowners remained optimistic about meeting future repayments, first homebuyer confidence declined significantly as more experienced mortgage stress in the past year.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. Government programs like the FDIC principal reduction program aim to help troubled homeowners. Jumbo mortgages are becoming more available again after tightening during the financial crisis. The document provides tips for homeowners regarding tax deductions and credits.
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization. Tips are provided for home sellers to make small, low-cost improvements.
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across North America. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help Keller Williams Realty realtors combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on the state of the real estate market.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US housing market in September 2009. It discusses signs of recovery including rising home sales and stabilizing home prices. Existing home sales increased for the 4th consecutive month in July. First-time buyers and distressed home sales continue to drive the market. Mortgage rates remain low, improving affordability. The government's homebuyer tax credit and "Cash for Clunkers" programs boosted the economy. Overall the market indicates continued recovery, though unemployment remains high.
The housing market continues to gradually improve without government support. While home prices and sales have declined compared to last year, inventory levels have returned to pre-tax credit levels. Low interest rates are encouraging buyers, but are expected to rise over 2012. Employment growth needs to continue for a full housing recovery, as jobs enable people to buy homes. Stimulus efforts will gradually wind down, but buyers still have favorable conditions in the market.
The document provides an industry update from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. It discusses 16 weeks of positive news in the housing market including the opening of debt markets, tax credit extensions, and falling mortgage rates. It also notes concerns around "shadow inventory," which refers to the large number of delinquent homes that will eventually hit the market and add supply. However, the document emphasizes that affordability is now the highest it's been in over 30 years, with half of all mortgages costing less than $1,000 per month. It concludes there is currently zero need to build new homes given oversupply issues and lack of demand due to high unemployment.
The document provides an overview of recent real estate market indicators and government actions in 3 paragraphs:
Paragraph 1 summarizes home sales numbers, median home prices, and inventory levels from December 2009. It notes a dip in home sales after the first-time homebuyer tax credit deadline but that sales remain above year-ago levels.
Paragraph 2 discusses the FHA tightening lending requirements by raising insurance fees, capping seller contributions, and requiring higher down payments for borrowers with poor credit starting in summer 2010. These changes aim to protect the FHA from needing taxpayer funds.
Paragraph 3 covers steps the government has taken to streamline the modification process and help foreclosures sell faster through an FHA policy change
Shawn Kormondy of Reis Group is a top producing real estate agent at a prestigious Beverly Hills real estate firm, Keller Williams Realty. He specializes in Hollywood Hills, West Hollywood, and Miracle Mile real estate. Shawn can be contacted by visiting one of his web sites, www.reisgroup.org or www.developweho.com
The following presentation provides an overview of the events and trends that took place in the residential housing environment for the first quarter of 2015 and provides an overview of the home price level for a select group of cities throughout the United States.
The purpose of this video is to provide an overview of the recent events and trends that have transpired in the residential housing environment, and to provide an overview of the home-price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index. This analysis is for the second quarter of 2015.
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, while home prices remained stable. Mortgage rates continued setting new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages, credit reports, credit/debit cards, and creates a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to regulate consumer loans.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner compared to a 30-year loan. Local lenders may offer more competitive rates than large banks.
Review of Residential Real Estate Analysis Valuation MethodologiesTroy Adkins
The purpose of this presentation is to provide an overview of the traditional residential real estate analysis valuation methodologies and to provide an overview of two proprietary residential real estate analysis valuation methodologies that were developed by the founder of Adkins Capital Management. This presentation provides an overview of the following methodologies:
1) cost-based method
2) sales-based method
3) expense-based method
4) finance-based method
This document provides an overview of recent developments in the US real estate market. It discusses signs of economic recovery including GDP growth and falling unemployment. Home sales are up significantly from a year ago due to low mortgage rates and tax credits for first-time buyers. Inventories are decreasing as demand increases. The government is taking steps to help homeowners through loan modifications and short sales. Real estate data shows improving affordability and decreasing home prices.
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. Home sales increased in October while prices and inventory declined. Mortgage rates remain low boosting affordability. The government extended homebuyer tax credits and issued new guidelines for loan modifications and short sales to encourage recovery. Some economists expect unemployment and underemployment to remain high in the near term slowing overall growth.
This document provides an overview of the real estate market in December 2009. It summarizes key economic indicators such as home sales, prices, inventory, and mortgage rates. It also outlines recent government actions to support the housing market through expanded homebuyer tax credits and new policies around loan modifications and short sales. The document concludes with a look at first-time buyers and distressed property purchases along with local market conditions.
The document summarizes key real estate market trends in Canada from December 2009. Home sales increased 72% year-over-year in December, while the average home price rose 19% to $337,410 nationally. Inventory levels also increased from the previous year, but remained low overall indicating a strong seller's market. Mortgage rates remained low at 5.49% for a 5-year fixed rate, supporting buyer demand. The document also discusses recent economic events and provides tips for home buyers in competitive bidding situations.
The document summarizes recent data on the US housing market. It reports that existing home sales increased for the second month in a row in April, supported by factors like the homebuyer tax credit and improved consumer confidence. Meanwhile, home prices and inventory levels showed signs of stability compared to previous years. Mortgage rates remained low historically but are expected to rise gradually. Government actions aim to shift responsibility for overseeing mortgage brokers from the FHA to lenders to improve risk management.
The purpose of this presentation is for the founder of Adkins Capital Management (ACM) to provide an overview and assessment of:
The events and trends that have transpired in the U.S. residential housing market for the second quarter of 2023:
A review of “The State of The Nation’s Housing” report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University.
The monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve to help curtail the impact of inflation on the U.S. economy.
The home price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index:
Top Five Overpriced Cities in the U.S.; and
Top Five Underpriced Cities in the U.S.
The housing market continues to gradually improve without government support. Home sales and prices rose in January while inventory fell, indicating stability. Mortgage rates are expected to trend upward in 2012 but buyers are taking advantage of low rates and favorable conditions. The recovery is gaining strength as lending standards and the job market improve.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US real estate market. It discusses signs of economic recovery and government efforts to boost the jobs market and help homeowners. Data shows existing home sales softened in February but prices remain low. Inventory is up while mortgage rates are near historic lows, improving affordability. The government aims to assist the unemployed and underwater homeowners to prevent foreclosures. New bills offer tax credits for home energy improvements and incentives to hire and retain employees.
Please also find attached our Real Estate Supplement. In it you will read about how issuance of bonds backed by commercial properties is on track to beat last year's supply and yield premiums for bonds backed by commercial property loans have narrowed. Also, Jefferies CMBS veteran Lisa Pendergast says she expects CMBS spreads to narrow by year end, while Fannie Mae economists Douglas Duncan and Patrick Simmons argue that a slowdown in the growth of the labor force suggests more modest prospects for the demand for new housing and construction. Emile J. Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, probes how state regulations will affect the pace of foreclosures and delinquencies. Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing has some advice for lawmakers on GSE reform and Donald Trump offers a characteristically confident view that the recovery in real estate. If you have any comments or feedback for future real estate issues please contact arozens@bloomberg.net.
The document provides an overview of recent developments in the US real estate market. It summarizes key data points like home sales, prices, inventory, and mortgage rates. It also outlines recent government actions to provide mortgage relief to unemployed homeowners and help underwater borrowers. New bills aim to stimulate hiring and the economy. The document concludes with tax tips for home energy efficiency upgrades.
The document summarizes recent economic and real estate market trends. It discusses steps the government has taken to boost the economy through unemployment assistance and mortgage relief programs. Real estate indicators like home sales, prices, inventory and mortgage rates are also summarized. The document concludes with tips for home energy efficiency tax credits.
The purpose of this presentation is to provide an overview of the U.S. residential housing market for the second quarter of 2018. An overview of the State of the Nation's Housing by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University is covered in this presentation.
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2017 Q1 - U.S. Residential Housing Marketing Review
1. Adkins Capital Management
“Helping Prospective Home Buyers Make A Prudent Home Purchase Decision”
U.S. Residential Housing Market Review
Adkins 60-City Home Price Index Analysis
First Quarter, 2017
2. PRESENTATION CONTENTS
The purpose of this presentation is to provide an overview and assessment of:
The events and trends that have transpired in the U.S. residential housing market
for the first quarter of 2017:
Actions taken by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Key findings from the “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” report by
PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute
Financial settlements made by the DOJ attributed to the mortgage crisis:
Deutsche Bank
Credit Suisse
Actions and implications of the Monetary Policy set by the Federal Reserve
The home price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City
Home Price Index.
Top Five Overpriced Cities in the U.S.
Top Five Underpriced Cities in the U.S.
Conclusion
Resources for Prospective Home Buyers
Important Disclosures
1Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
3. Adkins Capital Management
Privately owned and independently operated company.
Exclusive focus on residential real estate.
Company not affiliated with any parties associated
with the residential housing industry.
Our mission is to bridge the gap in the residential
housing market, where deficiencies in education,
public policy, regulation, product structure, and
personnel have created an environment where
prospective home buyers need objective information
and useful analytical tools in order to make a prudent
home purchase decision.
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2
More than 15 years of real estate analysis experience, more than 10 years of
institutional investment consulting experience, and more than eight years of
freelance financial writing experience.
Author of more than 25 published articles, including publications by Forbes,
Investor’s Business Daily, Yahoo, Investopedia, Financial Edge, and more than
230 news organizations worldwide.
2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
OVERVIEW OF FOUNDER AND CORPORATION
4. For the first quarter of 2017, an order imposed by the Consumer Financial Protection
Bureau (CFPB) against the nation’s three major credit reporting bureaus (Equifax,
Experian, and TransUnion) was the primary topic of discussion.
The problem, according to the CFPB, was that TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian misled
consumers by suggesting that the educational credit scores they offered were the same
scores lenders used to make credit decisions. However, according to the CFPB, these scores
were "rarely used by lenders to make credit decisions.”
The order imposed by the CFPB levied the following fines upon the three organizations:
Equifax and TransUnion were ordered to pay more than $23 million dollars in fines
and restitutions; and
Experian was ordered to pay $3 million dollars in fines and restitutions for similar
violations.
According to Fair Isaac, 90% of "top" U.S. lenders use FICO scores as part of their lending
decision making process.
Prospective home buyers should remember that according to Fair Isaac, the three credit
scores used by most lenders in terms of offering mortgage loans are:
Equifax: FICO® Score 5: based on Equifax data
Experian: FICO® Score 2: based on Experian data
TransUnion: FICO® Score 4: based on TransUnion data
3Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
IMPLICATIONS OF CFPB ACTIONS
5. For the first quarter of 2017, a report titled “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” was worthy
of discussion.
The report, undertaken jointly by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land
Institute, provides: “an outlook on real estate investment and development trends,
real estate finance and capital markets, property sectors, metropolitan areas, and other
real estate issues throughout the United States.”
The following points are an excerpt of the key findings that can be used to help prospective
home buyers analyze the real estate market in their community before purchasing a home:
A rising number of female executives, affluent immigrants, younger and older
workers, and retirees will have a profound influence on community building in the
U.S. over the next ten years.
The annual change in the median existing home price versus the change in the
median existing household income is outlined in an informative manner.
Moderate and severe housing cost burden on households with annual incomes below
$50,000 dollars is worthy of analysis.
Few builders are targeting middle-income buyers. Instead, homebuilders have been
targeting more affluent buyers. This in turn means that existing housing stock will
likely exceed the supply of new homes for future middle-income buyers.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is worried about the decreasing ability of
Americans to buy homes. According to the NAR, it seems unlikely that the U.S.
homeownership rate will edge above 65 percent anytime soon.
4Adkins Capital Management LLC.
FINDINGS FROM EMERGING TRENDS IN REAL ESTATE REPORT
2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
6. For the first quarter of this year, financial settlements agreed to by two foreign banking
institutions that led to the U.S. mortgage crisis were also important topics of discussion.
The Department of Justice reached a $7.2 billion dollar settlement with Deutsche
Bank, a German global banking and financial services institution
headquartered in Frankfurt, in connection with the bank’s issuance and
underwriting of residential mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and 2007.
The Department of Justice, reached a $5.28 billion dollar settlement with Credit
Suisse , a Swiss multinational financial services holding company located in
Zurich, in connection with the bank’s packaging, securitization, issuance,
marketing and sale of residential mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and
2007.
These financial settlements should remind prospective home buyers that they need to
take a proactive approach to analyzing their home purchase decisions by using
independent proprietary software applications such as the Adkins Residential Home
Valuation Analyzer.
5Adkins Capital Management LLC.
FINANCIAL SETTLEMENTS FROM THE MORTGAGE CRISIS
2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
7. For the first quarter of 2017, the national average mortgage loan interest rate for a 30-year
fully-amortized fixed-rate loan began the quarter at 4.09% and ended the quarter at 4.19%.
Since June of 2011, the national average mortgage loan interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate
loan has been less than 4.61%.
In order to better assess the current mortgage loan interest rate environment, prospective
home buyers should remember that the national average mortgage loan interest rate for a
30-year fully-amortized fixed rate loan reached an all-time low of 3.31% in November of
2012, and it reached an all-time high of 18.63% in October of 1981.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Federal
Reserve elected to raise the target Federal Funds Rate from (0.50% - 0.75%) to
(0.75% - 1.0%) during their Q1 2017 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In
addition, the Fed stated that it aims to raise interest rates twice more by the end of the year.
Accordingly, the Fed’s stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby
supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent
inflation.
Prospective home buyers should closely follow the level of mortgage loan interest rates in
their community, because a rising cost of debt will increase the amount of interest expense
that prospective home buyers will need to pay for their mortgage loan. This in turn will
place downward pressure on the price-level of residential housing in their community.
Prospective home buyers should use the Adkins Residential Home Valuation Analyzer in
order to assess the impact of a changing interest rate environment.
6Adkins Capital Management LLC.
IMPLICATIONS OF FEDERAL RESERVE MONETARY POLICY
2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
8. ADKINS RESIDENTIAL HOME VALUATION ANALYZER
HOME PRICE-LEVEL ANALYTICAL METHODOLOGY
JUSTIFIED MORTGAGE LOAN INTEREST RATE
Represents the cost of debt for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage
loan that equates the median home price level for a city with the median
household income level for the city.
Based on the assumption that 28% of household income is the largest amount of
money that should be spent in order to repay the principal and interest costs for a
30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
7
JUSTIFIED PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Represents the percentage of pre-tax household income that would have to be
spent by the people that live in a city in order to justify the relationship between
the median household income level for the city and the median home price level
for the city.
Based on the month-ending national average mortgage loan interest rate for a
30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
FINANCED-BASED ANALYSIS
9. TOP FIVE OVERPRICED CITIES IN THE U.S.
16 cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index were classified as overpriced for the quarter.
It is not possible to justify the home price level for the top five overpriced cities by reducing the 30-year fixed
rate mortgage loan interest rate from 4.19% to 0.0%.
In order to classify the homes in the top five overpriced cities as underpriced, it would need to be deemed
prudent by prospective home buyers to spend more than the justified percentage of household income amount.
In order to justify the median home price level for each city, the median required household income level would
need to increase to a level within the respective range of $95,253 and $231,375.
Based on the median household income level, the quarter ending national average mortgage loan interest rate,
and the assumption that no more than 28% of pre-tax household income should be spent in order to repay the
principal and interest costs of a mortgage loan, the justified home price level for the top five overpriced cities
fell within the respective range of $267,146 and $401,568.
8
Adkins 60-
City Home
Price Index
Median
Household
Income
Level
Median
Home Price
Level
Justified
Mortgage
Loan
Interest
Rate
Justified
Percentage
of
Household
Income
Required
Median
Household
Income
Level
Justified
Home Price
Level
San Francisco $84,160 $1,104,000 None 77% $231,375 $401,568
New York City $58,878 $586,400 None 59% $122,897 $280,935
San Diego $63,400 $540,500 None 51% $113,277 $302,512
Seattle $71,273 $592,200 None 49% $124,112 $340,078
Los Angeles $55,988 $454,500 None 48% $95,253 $267,146
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
10. TOP FIVE UNDERPRICED CITIES IN THE U.S.
44 cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index were classified as underpriced for the
quarter.
While Huntington has the same justified percentage of household income amount as Memphis
(Wichita), Huntington is ranked as the fifth most underpriced city in the index due to its lower
(higher) justified mortgage loan interest rate amount.
In order to classify homes in the top five underpriced cities as overpriced:
The national average mortgage loan interest rate would have to increase from 4.19% to more
than the justified mortgage loan interest rate amount for each city; or
It would have to be deemed imprudent by prospective home buyers to spend as much as the
justified percentage of household income amount in order to repay the costs of a mortgage loan.
9
Adkins 60-City
Home Price Index
Median
Household Income
Level
Median Home
Price Level
Justified
Mortgage Loan
Interest Rate
Justified
Percentage of
Household Income
Buffalo $66,100 $94,000 19.65% 9%
Detroit $25,980 $42,600 16.95% 10%
Milwaukee $53,164 $99,500 14.80% 11%
Memphis $36,817 $76,200 13.25% 13%
Huntington $44,520 $96,800 12.60% 13%
Wichita $52,231 $114,600 12.45% 13%
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
11. CONCLUSION
Given the events that have transpired in the residential housing market, and taking
into account the fact that buying a home will likely be the largest single financial
transaction that prospective home buyers will ever make, and the bulk of their net
worth will likely be tied up in their home, prospective home buyers should subscribe
to use the Adkins Residential Home Valuation Analyzer in order to accurately
assess:
the level of underpricing or overpricing of homes in their community;
the largest amount of money they should spend in order to purchase a home;
the amount of money they would need to earn on an annual basis in order to be
able to afford to purchase a specific home;
total home ownership costs expressed as a percentage of household income; and
how much a home would need to appreciate in value each year in order to offset
the costs associated with owning the home.
By analyzing residential real estate from these perspectives, prospective home buyers
should be able to make a prudent home purchase decision.
10Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
12. ACCESS THE ADKINS RESIDENTIAL
HOME VALUATION ANALYZER
REVIEW THE ADKINS 60-CITY HOME
PRICE INDEX
ACCESS THE STRATEGIC RETIREMENT
PLAN SAVINGS CALCULATOR
11Adkins Capital Management LLC.
RESOURCES FOR PROSPECTIVE HOME BUYERS
WATCH OUR MOVIE CATALOG OF QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL HOUSING
REVIEWS
WATCH OUR COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING VALUATION METHDOLOGY
MOVIE PRESENTATIONS
WATCH OUR STRATEGIC RETIREMENT PLAN SAVINGS METHODOLOGY
MOVIE PRESENTATION
WATCH OUR ANIMATED MOVIE PRESENTATIONS
CONTACT ADKINS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT IN ORDER TO DISCUSS
RESIDENTIAL HOUSING ANALYSIS QUESTIONS
2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
13. THANK YOU!
Adkins Capital Management
residentialrealestateanalysis.com
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New York City, NY, U.S.A.
Contents of this report are the property of Adkins Capital Management. No part of this report may be reproduced,
redistributed, displayed, or transmitted without the written consent from representatives of Adkins Capital Management.
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 12 2017 Q1 - Residential Real Estate Analysis
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES