This document discusses guarantee income and welfare programs in Canada. It provides background on Paul Young and his expertise. It defines guarantee income and describes Ontario's plans for a pilot program. It also discusses supply chain flows, average wages in Canada, energy costs, housing prices, and inflation. Charts show welfare payment amounts compared to other incomes. The document expresses concerns that guarantee income programs may discourage work and require large tax increases or spending cuts to fund.

1. GUARANTEE INCOME – WELFARE –
CANADA – DECEMBER 2018
PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
DATE: DECEMBER 19, 2018

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Internal Controls
• SME – Financial Planning and Analysis
• SME – Business Strategy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. AGENDA
• What is guarantee income
• Supply Chain Flow with Consumers and income
• Wages, Housing Prices and Inflation
• Average Wages / Canada

4. WHAT IS GUARANTEE INCOME
• Guaranteed minimum income (GMI) (also called
minimum income) is a system of social welfare
provision that guarantees that all citizens or families
have an income sufficient to live on, provided they
meet certain conditions.
Source - Wikipedia

5. ONTARIO GUARANTEE
INCOME• Volunteers in Peterborough and the City of Kawartha Lakes have
been lobbying to be test communities for Basic Income Guarantees, a
program that ensures every resident has enough money for food, rent
and other necessities. The goal of the program is to create a healthier
population so there are fewer demands on health and other social
services when people fall into crisis.
• Retired Senator Hugh Segal’s report on a minimum income for
Ontario was released in November. It would see Ontario set up a
multi-year pilot to measure its effectiveness starting in April, 2017.
Segal recommends a monthly payment of at least $1,320 for a single
person which is about 75 per cent of the province’s poverty line.

6. SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW
Consumers
Retail Stores
Wholesalers Manufacturers
Analysis
• Employment Income
• Business Income
• Pension Income
• Social Welfare Payments
• Carbon Tax impacted energy costs
(AB, ON)
• Ontario has high hydro rates
• High housing costs
• Wages are not keepimg pace with
inflation

7. WAGE GROWTH
Spencer Fernando – April 8, 2017
As reported by Bloomberg, average hourly wage increases were up
1.1% year-over-year, which was the lowest increase since 1998. It is
also far below the historical average of 2.7% in the last 10 years.
When looking further into the numbers, things are even worse for
permanent workers. They had the lowest wage growth since 1997.
And when it comes to the province-by-province picture, the increase
in Ontario was only 0.1% year-over-year, which is the lowest
increase ever recorded.
So much for Sunny Ways!!

8. AVERAGE WELFARE PAYMENT
Syrian Refugee
$3,600/month
Welfare
$850 to $1,100
/month
* Depending on
province)
• There maybe jobs but not job quality

9. ENERGY POVERTY – PREMIER WYNNE
• There has been no shortage of industry experts or professors on this show
over the years that warned we were heading for energy poverty.
• Why did she ignore the catastrophic confirmation from experts, including
her own party sources, and continue to double down while wallowing in her
majority?
• Why did they not scrap the act that lacked due diligence, along with cost
analysis, and start over?
• Wynne play on people’s sensitivity for the environment
Global News – Scott Thompson – March 28, 2017

10. BLOG – GUARANTEE INCOME /
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland said no to Guarantee Income –
• “In Switzerland, opponents warned that the proposal would derail an economic model
that, far from showing signs of near-collapse, has allowed the country to remain among
those with the highest living standards in the world, even with a growing and aging
population. Switzerland has an unemployment rate of around 3.5 percent, less than half
the average in the European Union. The backers of the plan did not detail how it would
be financed. But the Swiss government and almost all the main political parties had
urged voters to turn down the guaranteed income plan, warning that it would require
raising an additional 25 billion Swiss francs a year through deep spending cuts or tax
increases.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/06/world/europe/switzerland-swiss-vote-basic-
income.html (You cannot tax people to prosperity)

11. BLOG – SOCIALIST DIERDRE PIKE VS
COMMON SENSE
If this person can work, then she should be working!
Hamilton has lots of jobs openings!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/city-of-hamilton-
issues-and-solutions-may-2018 or
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8727662-hamilton-
unemployment-rate-drops-to-4-6-per-cent/
If you notice my work is backup, right?
If this gal as well as other made poor career choices that is
their problem!

12. ONTARIO/SOCIAL SERVICES
Source – Government of Ontario
• Govt of Ontario 3rd largest
spending is social services
• Guarantee Income
Supplement requires
monitoring which means
govt workers.
• Many of the Candidates
selected either ran business
or had no interest in
working
• Welfare is need to help
people get back on their
feet. Welfare should be
more targeted to benefit the
ones that need it the most.
• Socialists feel govt role is
take care people from cradle
to grave.

13. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND GUARANTEE
INCOME
Source - https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/12/19/liberals-say-they-are-looking-at-ways-to-provide-minimum-income-to-all-canadians-2/#.XBp28c1OlPa
• Liberals continue to introduce bad policies like C69 - https://ipolitics.ca/2018/12/17/lobby-wrap-
energy-industry-strengthens-efforts-to-defeat-bill-c-69/
• Liberals policies have led to FDI drops as well as brain drain -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/world-government-fiscal-capacity-and-debt

14. MARGARET THATCHER

15. PIERRE ELLIOT TRUDEAU

17. SUMMARY
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UrgSeNDCPo
• http://www.metronews.ca/news/winnipeg/2016/03/03/winnipeg-mp-petition-for-guaranteed-
income.html
• The MP table the change has said nothing about the $185B that is already available to
various groups as part of the income re-distribution. We have seen in Scandinavia countries
that if you change income with people then it does not motivate them to achieve more in
life.
• Let's face facts current programs that support low income except for minimum wage are
paid out a tax bucket. So, if you make changes then you likely going to either change
threshold for people or you are going take control of the money and lump into one group of
people. The problem with guarantee income it means different things to different groups of
people.