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Surplus and sustainability
International Conference on Global Trends in Fisheries Governance
29-30/01/2014, Stockholm
Ernesto Jardim
Iago Mosqueira
European Commission
Joint Research Centre
(JRC)
1 / 16
Problem
In 2012 the Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee
for Fisheries (STECF) was requested by the
Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries
(DGMARE), to discuss the concept of surplus, as defined
by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), [...]
and suggest methods to evaluate surplus values.
2 / 16
UNCLOS, 1982, Art.62.2
[...] Where the coastal states do not have the capacity to
harvest the entire allowable catch, it shall [...] give other
states access to the surplus of the allowable catch [...].
3 / 16
"capacity to harvest"
STECF, 2011:
[...] the total fishing effort the [...] the coastal country is
able to apply for the exploitation of its EEZ resources.
4 / 16
"allowable catch"
UNCLOS, 1982, Art. 61.3:
[...] maintain or restore populations of harvested species at
levels which can produce the maximum sustainable
yield, as qualified by relevant environmental and economic
factors
5 / 16
Surplus
Computing surplus (S) relies on two elements:
ˆ the maximum sustainable yield (MSY1) (Y)
ˆ the coastal state potential catches (C)
S = Y − C
1or a function of it
6 / 16
Surplus - what’s the problem ?
These two elements, MSY and potential catches, are not
simple to estimate and may have large uncertainties
associated.
7 / 16
Management Strategies Evaluation
1. Build a simulated fishery based on a real stock
(Sardinella aurita in West Africa)
2. Forecast conditional on (realistic!?) scenarios
8 / 16
Management Strategies Evaluation
1. Build a simulated fishery based on a real stock
(Sardinella aurita in West Africa)
2. Forecast conditional on (realistic!?) scenarios
3. Compute MSY (Biomass Dynamic Model)
4. Compute the coastal State potential catches
5. Compute surplus
8 / 16
MSY (2016)
300400500600700
000't
9 / 16
The coastal State’s potential catch
ˆ Is a proportion of the total fishing effort
ˆ Is a proportion of the total allowable catch
ˆ Is a fixed catch
10 / 16
Potential catch (2016)
% effort % TAC fixed catch
0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600
000't
11 / 16
Surplus (2016)
% effort % TAC fixed catch
0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600
000't
12 / 16
What about sustainability ?
Biomass Yield
time
weight
realization
MSY refpts
13 / 16
Conclusions
ˆ Estimating surplus values is a complex process,
frequently producing results with a large uncertainty.
ˆ Surplus values should be embedded in management
plans, which ideally include:
ˆ management objectives
ˆ harvest control rules
ˆ TAC or effort allocation schemes
ˆ scientific advice
ˆ monitoring
14 / 16
Thank you !
15 / 16
Aknowledgements
EWG 12-04: Bertignac, Michel (IFREMER); Boje, Jesper
(DTU-Aqua); Cardinale, Massimiliano (SLU); Gascuel, Didier
(AGROCAMPUS); Kuikka, Sakari (University of Helsinki);
Brehmer, Patrice (IRD); Corten, Adrianus (Consultant);
Fernandez Peralta, Lourdes (IEO); Garcia, Eva (IEO); Murta,
Alberto (IPIMAR); Scott, Finlay (CEFAS); Sobrino, Ignacio
(IEO); Charef, Aymen (JRC); Millar, Colin Pearson (JRC); Stal,
Johan (SAMWM).
16 / 16

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2014 wks ws+jardim-mosqueira

  • 1. Surplus and sustainability International Conference on Global Trends in Fisheries Governance 29-30/01/2014, Stockholm Ernesto Jardim Iago Mosqueira European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) 1 / 16
  • 2. Problem In 2012 the Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF) was requested by the Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (DGMARE), to discuss the concept of surplus, as defined by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), [...] and suggest methods to evaluate surplus values. 2 / 16
  • 3. UNCLOS, 1982, Art.62.2 [...] Where the coastal states do not have the capacity to harvest the entire allowable catch, it shall [...] give other states access to the surplus of the allowable catch [...]. 3 / 16
  • 4. "capacity to harvest" STECF, 2011: [...] the total fishing effort the [...] the coastal country is able to apply for the exploitation of its EEZ resources. 4 / 16
  • 5. "allowable catch" UNCLOS, 1982, Art. 61.3: [...] maintain or restore populations of harvested species at levels which can produce the maximum sustainable yield, as qualified by relevant environmental and economic factors 5 / 16
  • 6. Surplus Computing surplus (S) relies on two elements: ˆ the maximum sustainable yield (MSY1) (Y) ˆ the coastal state potential catches (C) S = Y − C 1or a function of it 6 / 16
  • 7. Surplus - what’s the problem ? These two elements, MSY and potential catches, are not simple to estimate and may have large uncertainties associated. 7 / 16
  • 8. Management Strategies Evaluation 1. Build a simulated fishery based on a real stock (Sardinella aurita in West Africa) 2. Forecast conditional on (realistic!?) scenarios 8 / 16
  • 9. Management Strategies Evaluation 1. Build a simulated fishery based on a real stock (Sardinella aurita in West Africa) 2. Forecast conditional on (realistic!?) scenarios 3. Compute MSY (Biomass Dynamic Model) 4. Compute the coastal State potential catches 5. Compute surplus 8 / 16
  • 11. The coastal State’s potential catch ˆ Is a proportion of the total fishing effort ˆ Is a proportion of the total allowable catch ˆ Is a fixed catch 10 / 16
  • 12. Potential catch (2016) % effort % TAC fixed catch 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 000't 11 / 16
  • 13. Surplus (2016) % effort % TAC fixed catch 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 000't 12 / 16
  • 14. What about sustainability ? Biomass Yield time weight realization MSY refpts 13 / 16
  • 15. Conclusions ˆ Estimating surplus values is a complex process, frequently producing results with a large uncertainty. ˆ Surplus values should be embedded in management plans, which ideally include: ˆ management objectives ˆ harvest control rules ˆ TAC or effort allocation schemes ˆ scientific advice ˆ monitoring 14 / 16
  • 17. Aknowledgements EWG 12-04: Bertignac, Michel (IFREMER); Boje, Jesper (DTU-Aqua); Cardinale, Massimiliano (SLU); Gascuel, Didier (AGROCAMPUS); Kuikka, Sakari (University of Helsinki); Brehmer, Patrice (IRD); Corten, Adrianus (Consultant); Fernandez Peralta, Lourdes (IEO); Garcia, Eva (IEO); Murta, Alberto (IPIMAR); Scott, Finlay (CEFAS); Sobrino, Ignacio (IEO); Charef, Aymen (JRC); Millar, Colin Pearson (JRC); Stal, Johan (SAMWM). 16 / 16