California Drop out rate early warning system

1. CLMS
October 26, 2012
Dr. Paul A. Rodriguez
Dr. Ron J. Williams

2. What challenges do you anticipate?
How will you address them?
How will you know that staff is on the right
track?
Setting a Course for Learning by ALL

3. Blueprint for Success
Setting a Course for Learning by ALL
Strong
Results for
ALL
Students
What we
want for our
students
Core Purpose
What we
commit to
Core
Educational
Practices
What we
know to be
important
Action
Sequence
What we do
Milestones of
Progress
What we
accomplish
S y s t emi c a l l y I n c r e a s i n g S t u d e n t A c h i e v eme n t

4. Setting a Course for Learning by ALL

5. *
Ken Robinson
Setting a Course for Learning by ALL

6. We need to shift our focus from high school
completion to college and career readiness for all
students.
• The Common Core State Standards:
• Are for all students, not just students seeking
accelerated learning.
• Will impact all teachers, not just ELA and math
teachers.
• Is happening now.
• School level leaders will need to play a Central Role in
implementing the New Standards and in cultivating this
mindset shift.
Setting a Course for Learning by ALL

7. • Previously, every state had its own set of
academic standards and different expectations
of student performance.
Setting a Course for Learning by ALL
Consistency
• Common standards can help create more equal
Equity access to an excellent education.
• All students must be prepared to compete with
not only their American peers, but also with
students from around the world.
Competition
• Clear and coherent standards will help students
(and parents and teachers) understand what is
expected of them.
Clarity
• Common standards create a foundation for
districts and states to work collaboratively. Collaboration

8. • Adelman et al. (2003)
• 15% of students in the TOP QUINTILE in academic rigor
required remediation
• 57% of students in the BOTTOM QUINTILE in academic rigor
required remediation
• Adelman (2006)
• 83% of students whose HIGHEST MATH CLASS was CALCULUS
graduated within 8 years
• 40% of students whose HIGHEST MATH CLASS was Algebra II
graduated within 8 years
Setting a Course for Learning by ALL

9. A STATE-LED EFFORT to develop a common set of standards in English
language arts and math that:
• ALIGNED with COLLEGE and work EXPECTATIONS
• FOCUSED and COHERENT
• Include RIGOROUS CONTENT and APPLICATION OF KNOWLEDGE through
HIGH-ORDER SKILLS
• BUILD upon STRENGTHS and LESSONS of CURRENT STATE STANDARDS
• INTERNATIONALLY BENCHMARKED so that all students are prepared to
succeed in our global economy and society
• BASED on EVIDENCE and RESEARCH
Setting a Course for Learning by ALL

11. *

12. *
All students can learn.
Success breeds success.
We control the conditions of
success.

13. May 27, 2011

14. Early Warning System: Support for Common
Core State Standards
The dropout problem in the United States is a
national crisis. About 25% of all high school
students leave the public school system before
graduating. The Early Warning System (EWS)
uses available school data to identify students
who are at risk of dropping out, allowing
educators to intervene early.
Data identifies students who show signs that
they are at risk of dropping out of middle and
high school. The EWS matches these students
to interventions to keep students on track for
graduation. EWS intervention supports the
Common Core State principles of equity,
curriculum rigor, career-paths and learning for all
students.

15. • It is estimated that close to 30 percent of students who enter high
school this year will not graduate in four years, while roughly half of all
African American and Latino students entering high school will not
graduate in four years (Greene & Winters, 2005).
• The health of a high school dropout suffers dramatically. An average 45-
year-old high school dropout is in worse health than a 65-year-old high
school graduate. High school dropouts have a life expectancy that is
nearly a decade shorter than high school graduates (Gibbons, 2006).
• Globally, the United States ranks 17th in high school graduation
rates and 14th in college graduation rates among developed
nations (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and
Development, 2006). Concurrently, about 90 percent of the
fastest growing jobs will require some post-secondary education
(Alliance for Excellent Education, 2007).

16. The National Dropout Epidemic
•More than 1.2 million students “drop out”
of high school every year; that is,1 student
every 26 seconds;
•If the dropout rate remains the same for
the next 10 years, the result will be a loss
to the
•nation of $3 trillion;
•The dropout epidemic is more severe in
some areas, and disproportionately affects
some students more than others.

17. *attendance and behavior
monitors,
*tutoring and counseling,
*establishment of small
learning communities for
greater personalization,
*engaging catch-up
courses,
*Ninth Grade Academies,
*homerooms,
*benchmarking,
*progress monitoring,
tiered interventions,
*a focus on equal access to
rigorous coursework and
high expectations,
*career/college
awareness,
*community engagement,
and
*eighth-to-ninth grade
transition programs.

18. • The NHSC agreed that creating a middle grades EWS tool
would provide states and districts with a very practical,
research based, “free” system of support to address dropout
prevention; however, the project required approval from the
Department of Education (ED) since the project and funding
source would be outside of NHSC’s school level.
• The NHSC proposed the idea to ED in February 2011 and
received approval for the project on March 25, 2011.
• EWS tool will be based on a set of identified indicators
that are predictive of students who are at risk of
dropping out of school even before reaching high school.
• Middle grades indicators include: attendance, course
performance in English language arts and mathematics,
• and suspensions.

19. •California will be viewed nationally as the
model for using a 4-12 Early Warning and
Intervention System.
•NHSC stated that the middle grades will be
“driving” the project and it is anticipated
that once the pilot project is completed in
spring 2012.

20. •Purpose of this pilot project is to provide high schools and
middle grades schools with an effective tool for early
identification of students who are most at-risk of dropping
out of school.
•A critical component of the pilot project is to capture the
successful interventions utilized by the participating
schools for inclusion in an intervention toolkit.
•Once the pilot is completed, the tool (one for middle and
one for high school) and the toolkit/s will be provided to
all middle grades and high schools via the middle grades
and high school’s Web portal.

21. • Select Districts and Schools
* CDE will identify and select approximately 4-6 districts, for a total of 12-15
participating middle and high schools.
* Selected schools and districts represent the state’s diverse population.
• Provide Professional Development to High School Staff on EWS Tool v2.0
* Staff at selected high schools will be trained on how to use the NHSC existing
EWS Tool v2.0 in 2011.
* This will not only help the NHSC validate the tool in CA, but will also help to
inform the development of the new middle grades EWS Tool .
• Develop a Middle Grades Schools EWS Tool
* Using established indicators and thresholds for predicting middle
grades risk of dropout, the NHSC will develop a middle grades EWS Tool.

22. •Provide Professional Development for Middle Grades Staff
on Middle Grades Tool.
* Middle grades staff will be provided professional development on
how to use the new EWS Tool in August 2011.
* The Professional development will be presented via online
Webinar by NHSC.
•Convene a Community of Practice of EWS Tool Users
* A community of practice will be established for both the high
school EWS Tool v2.0 users and the new middle grades EWS Tool
users.

23. MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
Kick Off Meeting
Finalize participating districts
Train participating high schools on
EWS Tool v2.0
Identify middle grade indicators and
develop corresponding tool
Develop “specs” for tool
Finalize tool functionality
Finalize tool
Develop tool help text
Revise technical manual
Train participating middle schools in
use of the new tool
Facilitate a community of practice of
EWS users

24. *

25. Contact information:
Dr. Paul A. Rodriguez:
Email:
prodriguez@pacificoaks.edu
909.519.2777
Dr. Ron J. Williams
Email:
RWilliams@vvuhsd.org