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Learning From The Wind



@fnauta   January 11th, 2012
              Edinburgh
1. Golden Age wind power
2. Hippy wind power
3. Learning From The Wind
2010 Wind power share
 electricity production


• Germany: >20% share

• Netherlands: <10%

• Denmark: > 25%
1
Golden Age
wind power
God created the world, but the Dutch created Holland
2
Hippy wind power
70'ies
• Triggered by:

  - Club of Rome
  - Energy Crisis
• Three countries pioneered:

  - Netherlands
  - Denmark
  - California
• Late followers: Germany, Germany, UK, China
2010 Wind power share
 electricity production


• Germany: >20% share

• Netherlands: <10%

• Denmark: > 25%
Germany

• 1988: First feed-in proposal got Germany into
  pilot mode: 100 MW wind + 1.000 Roofs PV
• 1991: Einspeizegezetz
• 1995: 1.100 MW Wind Power
• 1999: 100.000 Roofs
• 90's: 2 billion euros in public R&D
• 2005 > 50% installed world capacity
• 23 years of stable policy
Netherlands

• First to the party in 70'ies
• Policy commitment gone by start 80'ies
• Reestablished by mid 90'ies
• Gone around new millenium
• Policy commitment reestablished etc
• Currently: big plans for wind at sea
• 35 years of traffic light policy
Denmark

• Great funding for R&D and implementation
• Smart acquisition of Dutch & Califonian
  technology 80'ies
• World market share > 20%
• Industry > 3 billion revenue
• Wind power market share 2020 goal 50%
• 35 years of stable policy
Market share 2010



               and RePower)
Learning From the
      Wind
1
        Markets outperform
     central planning by a mile


    • Right incentives
    • Provided it's for the long term (> 20 years)
    • Funding is automated: top-up tax
    • Regulation low transactional costs
2
        In Policy Matters,
          Politics Matter

    • As ideology-free as possible
    • BHAG: Big Hary Audacious Goal
    • Visible results: landmark
    • Smartly use policy windows
2
    In Policy Matters,
      Politics Matter
2
        In Policy Matters,
          Politics Matter

    • As ideology-free as possible
    • BHAG: Big Hary Audacious Goal
    • Visible results: landmark
    • Smartly use policy windows
3
    Entrepreneurs make
     all the difference
    • Startups coming up with great, high risk
      solutions
    • Herman Scheer was a politician-entrepreneur
    • The 10.001 owners of Middelgrunden Off
      Shore Wind Park are entrepreneurs
    • Behind the scenes there are many
      entrepreneurial civil servants
    ➡ Make sure you find the market & policy
      context that is stable
As for the Dutch
• In EU wind power expansion will be mainly at
  sea
• EU market for off shore wind power
  projection: € 4 Billion in 2010 to € 20 Billion
  in 2020
Thank you
for your attention

  www.Climate-KIC.org

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Learning from the Wind - Edinburgh Conference

  • 1. Learning From The Wind @fnauta January 11th, 2012 Edinburgh
  • 2. 1. Golden Age wind power 2. Hippy wind power 3. Learning From The Wind
  • 3. 2010 Wind power share electricity production • Germany: >20% share • Netherlands: <10% • Denmark: > 25%
  • 5. God created the world, but the Dutch created Holland
  • 6.
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  • 11. 70'ies • Triggered by: - Club of Rome - Energy Crisis • Three countries pioneered: - Netherlands - Denmark - California • Late followers: Germany, Germany, UK, China
  • 12. 2010 Wind power share electricity production • Germany: >20% share • Netherlands: <10% • Denmark: > 25%
  • 13.
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  • 18. Germany • 1988: First feed-in proposal got Germany into pilot mode: 100 MW wind + 1.000 Roofs PV • 1991: Einspeizegezetz • 1995: 1.100 MW Wind Power • 1999: 100.000 Roofs • 90's: 2 billion euros in public R&D • 2005 > 50% installed world capacity • 23 years of stable policy
  • 19. Netherlands • First to the party in 70'ies • Policy commitment gone by start 80'ies • Reestablished by mid 90'ies • Gone around new millenium • Policy commitment reestablished etc • Currently: big plans for wind at sea • 35 years of traffic light policy
  • 20. Denmark • Great funding for R&D and implementation • Smart acquisition of Dutch & Califonian technology 80'ies • World market share > 20% • Industry > 3 billion revenue • Wind power market share 2020 goal 50% • 35 years of stable policy
  • 21. Market share 2010 and RePower)
  • 23. 1 Markets outperform central planning by a mile • Right incentives • Provided it's for the long term (> 20 years) • Funding is automated: top-up tax • Regulation low transactional costs
  • 24. 2 In Policy Matters, Politics Matter • As ideology-free as possible • BHAG: Big Hary Audacious Goal • Visible results: landmark • Smartly use policy windows
  • 25. 2 In Policy Matters, Politics Matter
  • 26. 2 In Policy Matters, Politics Matter • As ideology-free as possible • BHAG: Big Hary Audacious Goal • Visible results: landmark • Smartly use policy windows
  • 27. 3 Entrepreneurs make all the difference • Startups coming up with great, high risk solutions • Herman Scheer was a politician-entrepreneur • The 10.001 owners of Middelgrunden Off Shore Wind Park are entrepreneurs • Behind the scenes there are many entrepreneurial civil servants ➡ Make sure you find the market & policy context that is stable
  • 28. As for the Dutch • In EU wind power expansion will be mainly at sea • EU market for off shore wind power projection: € 4 Billion in 2010 to € 20 Billion in 2020
  • 29. Thank you for your attention www.Climate-KIC.org