1. Automaker Survey Confirms:
Aluminum Use at All-Time High
and Set for Significant Increase
Brad Soultz
Vice President & General Manager, Automotive and
Specialty Products Group - North America, Novelis
on behalf of
The Aluminum Association
Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)
www.aluminumintransportation.org
1
2. Defining Who We Are
The Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)
www.aluminumintransportation.org
4. Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing
• Two main factors
leading automakers to
rethink vehicle design
– Consumer demand and
desire for increased fuel
efficiency coupled with
a need to continuously
improve safety, function
and comfort
– New, stringent fuel
economy standards
www.aluminumintransportation.org 4
5. Survey of North American
Automakers by Ducker Worldwide
Primary Objective
Accurate estimate of 2012 North American light
vehicle aluminum content
Secondary Objective
Estimate “most likely” material mix through 2025
www.aluminumintransportation.org 5
6. 40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth
Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle
600
2012
500
Pounds per Vehicle
343 lbs per vehicle
400
Average increase of 7 lbs
per year for 35 years
300
200
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
www.aluminumintransportation.org 6
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
7. Aluminum Content in 2012
Wheels 790
Transmissions 785
Cylinder Blocks 636
Cylinder Heads 588
Heat Transfer 516 Nearly 80% of engine blocks
Other Engine 371 in 2012 are aluminum
Brake Parts 130
Closures 126
Steering Knuckles 115 Record aluminum
Intake Manifolds 112
content in 2012:
Control Arms & Links 89
Transfer Cases 88
• Engine Blocks
Bumpers 70 • Closures
Differential Carriers 69 • Bumpers
Other Steering 60 • Steering Knuckles
Engine Mounts 49
• IP Structures
Cradles & Crossmembers 24
IP Structure 23
Drive Shafts & Yokes 14
All Other Compnents 125
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Millions of Pounds
www.aluminumintransportation.org 7
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
9. Aluminum Share
Expected to Double
100%
8% 11%
90% 16%
80%
Percent of Material Mix
70% 42% 38% 30%
Aluminum
60%
50% Steel
40%
30% All Other
50% 51% 54% Materials
20%
10%
0%
2008 2015 2025
www.aluminumintransportation.org 9
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
10. Aluminum Forecast
Growth Projected to Reach
400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016
Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle
600
2015
2012 400 lbs per vehicle
500
Pounds per Vehicle
343 lbs per vehicle
400 The trend line continues
to be supported by
300
new aluminum applications
200
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
www.aluminumintransportation.org 10
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
11. New Applications Required to
Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario
North American Light Vehicle Aluminum
Content Increases
25
Pounds per Vehicle
20
Pounds per Vehicle New Applications 11
(Primarily body, bumper 8
15 and closure components)
4
10
12 1 12
10 11
10
5 6 8
5
3 2 3
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
www.aluminumintransportation.org 11
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
12. Average Net Cost of Direct and
Indirect Weight Reduction
Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effective
in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025
Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings
Cost Dollar/Pound
Saved
Primary $2.00
Secondary ($1.82)
Net Cost $0.18
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011 &
IBIS 2005
www.aluminumintransportation.org 12
13. Ducker Survey Conclusions
• Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations
are driving a dramatic increase in aluminum usage
– Weight savings from aluminum and AHSS for body parts
• Automakers working hard to improve fuel economy
and maintain or improve size, function, safety and
comfort
• Weight reduction with aluminum is a cost effective
part of the solution
www.aluminumintransportation.org 13
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
14. Ducker Survey Conclusions
• By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs.
– Aluminum and AHSS
– Aluminum
• Sheet , extrusions
• Closures, body-in-white, bumper, and suspension components
• Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight
– 343 pounds in 2012
– 550 pounds in 2025
– Increase of 207 lbs. in 13 years
– Industry added 200 lbs. per vehicle from 1990 to 2010
• This is a conservative forecast
www.aluminumintransportation.org 14
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011