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Automaker Survey Confirms:
Aluminum Use at All-Time High
and Set for Significant Increase
                       Brad Soultz
    Vice President & General Manager, Automotive and
     Specialty Products Group - North America, Novelis

                      on behalf of
               The Aluminum Association
         Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)

           www.aluminumintransportation.org
                                                         1
Defining Who We Are
The Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)




                  www.aluminumintransportation.org
Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle
         Mass                                   Better Fuel
     Reduction                                  Economy




                 Infinitely          Reduced
                 Recyclable         Emissions




     Enhanced                                   Improved
   Performance                                  Safety

                   www.aluminumintransportation.org           3
Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing

• Two main factors
  leading automakers to
  rethink vehicle design
   – Consumer demand and
     desire for increased fuel
     efficiency coupled with
     a need to continuously
     improve safety, function
     and comfort
   – New, stringent fuel
     economy standards

                     www.aluminumintransportation.org   4
Survey of North American
Automakers by Ducker Worldwide
  Primary Objective
     Accurate estimate of 2012 North American light
     vehicle aluminum content

  Secondary Objective
     Estimate “most likely” material mix through 2025




               www.aluminumintransportation.org         5
40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth
                                               Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle
                          600


                                                                                     2012
                          500
     Pounds per Vehicle




                                                                              343 lbs per vehicle

                          400
                                       Average increase of 7 lbs
                                         per year for 35 years
                          300


                          200


                          100


                           0
                                1975




                                        1980




                                               1985




                                                         1990




                                                                1995




                                                                       2000




                                                                              2005




                                                                                     2010




                                                                                            2015




                                                                                                    2020




                                                                                                           2025
                                                      www.aluminumintransportation.org                            6
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Aluminum Content in 2012
                             Wheels                                                                            790
                     Transmissions                                                                             785
                    Cylinder Blocks                                                                  636
                    Cylinder Heads                                                             588
                       Heat Transfer                                                    516                Nearly 80% of engine blocks
                       Other Engine                                         371                               in 2012 are aluminum
                        Brake Parts                        130
                           Closures                       126
                Steering Knuckles                         115                                                Record aluminum
                   Intake Manifolds                   112
                                                                                                             content in 2012:
             Control Arms & Links                    89
                     Transfer Cases                  88
                                                                                                             • Engine Blocks
                           Bumpers               70                                                          • Closures
               Differential Carriers             69                                                          • Bumpers
                     Other Steering             60                                                           • Steering Knuckles
                     Engine Mounts              49
                                                                                                             • IP Structures
         Cradles & Crossmembers            24
                        IP Structure       23
             Drive Shafts & Yokes          14
             All Other Compnents                          125

                                       0        100             200   300   400   500         600     700     800    900

                                                                      Millions of Pounds

                                           www.aluminumintransportation.org                                                     7
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
2009-2012
                Aluminum Content Growth
            Body, Bumper & Closure                                   58% (over 50% from closures)
                        Crossmembers                      19%
                                Suspension            16%
                                  Steering          10%
                     Average Increase           5%
                     Wheels & Brakes           3%
           Transmission & Driveline            3%
                                    Engine     3%
                          Heat Transfer        1%

                                             0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
                                                   Total Pounds
                                       www.aluminumintransportation.org                    8
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Aluminum Share
                                    Expected to Double
                             100%
                                    8%                11%
                             90%                                      16%
                             80%
   Percent of Material Mix




                             70%    42%               38%             30%
                                                                              Aluminum
                             60%
                             50%                                              Steel
                             40%
                             30%                                              All Other
                                    50%               51%             54%     Materials
                             20%
                             10%
                              0%
                                    2008             2015             2025
                                           www.aluminumintransportation.org        9
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Aluminum Forecast
                                                       Growth Projected to Reach
                                                  400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016

                                                    Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle
                          600
                                                                                                    2015
                                                                               2012          400 lbs per vehicle
                          500
     Pounds per Vehicle




                                                                        343 lbs per vehicle

                          400           The trend line continues
                                           to be supported by
                          300
                                       new aluminum applications

                          200


                          100


                           0
                                1975




                                           1980




                                                    1985




                                                              1990




                                                                     1995




                                                                              2000




                                                                                      2005




                                                                                                2010




                                                                                                       2015




                                                                                                              2020




                                                                                                                     2025
                                                           www.aluminumintransportation.org                                 10
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
New Applications Required to
     Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario
                                                 North American Light Vehicle Aluminum
                                                          Content Increases
                              25
         Pounds per Vehicle




                              20
                                               Pounds per Vehicle        New Applications                  11
                                                                     (Primarily body, bumper         8
                              15                                     and closure components)

                                                                                               4
                              10
                                   12                                                1                     12
                                                                                               10   11
                                          10
                              5                 6                                    8
                                                                             5
                                                       3      2      3
                              0
                               2005     2006   2007   2008   2009   2010    2011   2012    2013     2014    2015
                                                    www.aluminumintransportation.org                               11
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Average Net Cost of Direct and
         Indirect Weight Reduction
       Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effective
       in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025

                                  Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings
                                        Cost        Dollar/Pound
                                                    Saved
                                        Primary     $2.00
                                        Secondary   ($1.82)
                                        Net Cost    $0.18



Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011 &
IBIS 2005
                                       www.aluminumintransportation.org   12
Ducker Survey Conclusions
          • Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations
            are driving a dramatic increase in aluminum usage
               – Weight savings from aluminum and AHSS for body parts

          • Automakers working hard to improve fuel economy
            and maintain or improve size, function, safety and
            comfort

          • Weight reduction with aluminum is a cost effective
            part of the solution


                                www.aluminumintransportation.org        13
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Ducker Survey Conclusions
          • By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs.
                – Aluminum and AHSS
                – Aluminum
                       • Sheet , extrusions
                       • Closures, body-in-white, bumper, and suspension components
          • Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight
                –   343 pounds in 2012
                –   550 pounds in 2025
                –   Increase of 207 lbs. in 13 years
                –   Industry added 200 lbs. per vehicle from 1990 to 2010
          • This is a conservative forecast
                                  www.aluminumintransportation.org                    14
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Automaker Survey Confirms:
Aluminum Use at All-Time High
and Set for Significant Increase


            Thank You

  www.aluminumintransportation.org

                                     15

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2012 jan platts_pres

  • 1. Automaker Survey Confirms: Aluminum Use at All-Time High and Set for Significant Increase Brad Soultz Vice President & General Manager, Automotive and Specialty Products Group - North America, Novelis on behalf of The Aluminum Association Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG) www.aluminumintransportation.org 1
  • 2. Defining Who We Are The Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG) www.aluminumintransportation.org
  • 3. Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle Mass Better Fuel Reduction Economy Infinitely Reduced Recyclable Emissions Enhanced Improved Performance Safety www.aluminumintransportation.org 3
  • 4. Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing • Two main factors leading automakers to rethink vehicle design – Consumer demand and desire for increased fuel efficiency coupled with a need to continuously improve safety, function and comfort – New, stringent fuel economy standards www.aluminumintransportation.org 4
  • 5. Survey of North American Automakers by Ducker Worldwide Primary Objective Accurate estimate of 2012 North American light vehicle aluminum content Secondary Objective Estimate “most likely” material mix through 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 5
  • 6. 40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 600 2012 500 Pounds per Vehicle 343 lbs per vehicle 400 Average increase of 7 lbs per year for 35 years 300 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 6 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 7. Aluminum Content in 2012 Wheels 790 Transmissions 785 Cylinder Blocks 636 Cylinder Heads 588 Heat Transfer 516 Nearly 80% of engine blocks Other Engine 371 in 2012 are aluminum Brake Parts 130 Closures 126 Steering Knuckles 115 Record aluminum Intake Manifolds 112 content in 2012: Control Arms & Links 89 Transfer Cases 88 • Engine Blocks Bumpers 70 • Closures Differential Carriers 69 • Bumpers Other Steering 60 • Steering Knuckles Engine Mounts 49 • IP Structures Cradles & Crossmembers 24 IP Structure 23 Drive Shafts & Yokes 14 All Other Compnents 125 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Millions of Pounds www.aluminumintransportation.org 7 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 8. 2009-2012 Aluminum Content Growth Body, Bumper & Closure 58% (over 50% from closures) Crossmembers 19% Suspension 16% Steering 10% Average Increase 5% Wheels & Brakes 3% Transmission & Driveline 3% Engine 3% Heat Transfer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Total Pounds www.aluminumintransportation.org 8 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 9. Aluminum Share Expected to Double 100% 8% 11% 90% 16% 80% Percent of Material Mix 70% 42% 38% 30% Aluminum 60% 50% Steel 40% 30% All Other 50% 51% 54% Materials 20% 10% 0% 2008 2015 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 9 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 10. Aluminum Forecast Growth Projected to Reach 400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016 Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 600 2015 2012 400 lbs per vehicle 500 Pounds per Vehicle 343 lbs per vehicle 400 The trend line continues to be supported by 300 new aluminum applications 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 10 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 11. New Applications Required to Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Increases 25 Pounds per Vehicle 20 Pounds per Vehicle New Applications 11 (Primarily body, bumper 8 15 and closure components) 4 10 12 1 12 10 11 10 5 6 8 5 3 2 3 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 www.aluminumintransportation.org 11 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 12. Average Net Cost of Direct and Indirect Weight Reduction Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effective in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025 Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings Cost Dollar/Pound Saved Primary $2.00 Secondary ($1.82) Net Cost $0.18 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011 & IBIS 2005 www.aluminumintransportation.org 12
  • 13. Ducker Survey Conclusions • Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations are driving a dramatic increase in aluminum usage – Weight savings from aluminum and AHSS for body parts • Automakers working hard to improve fuel economy and maintain or improve size, function, safety and comfort • Weight reduction with aluminum is a cost effective part of the solution www.aluminumintransportation.org 13 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 14. Ducker Survey Conclusions • By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs. – Aluminum and AHSS – Aluminum • Sheet , extrusions • Closures, body-in-white, bumper, and suspension components • Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight – 343 pounds in 2012 – 550 pounds in 2025 – Increase of 207 lbs. in 13 years – Industry added 200 lbs. per vehicle from 1990 to 2010 • This is a conservative forecast www.aluminumintransportation.org 14 Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 15. Automaker Survey Confirms: Aluminum Use at All-Time High and Set for Significant Increase Thank You www.aluminumintransportation.org 15