The Changing Make Up of Automobiles    Survey Results: Aluminum Usage by       North American Automakers        An Aluminu...
Defining Who We AreThe Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)                   www.aluminumintranspor...
IntroductionsRandall Scheps                    Doug Richman ATG Chairman                   ATG Executive andMarketing Dire...
Why We are Here Today• Promote a holistic, multi-material approach combining  strong lightweight materials like aluminum w...
Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing• Two main factors  leading automakers  to rethink vehicle  design   – Consumer demand and     ...
Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle         Mass                                           Better Fuel     Reduction         ...
Automakers Confirm Plans to          Downweight• Audi: To migrate aspects of the ASF® technology currently in the A8  to h...
Aluminum-Intensive Vehicles Today:Maintained Size, Decreased Weight            2011 Audi TT            Roadster ASF 58%   ...
Aluminum in 2012 NorthAmerican Light Vehicles     Survey of North American Automakers by Ducker Worldwide        www.alumi...
Survey Objectives• Primary Objective  – Accurate estimate of 2012 North American    light vehicle aluminum content• Second...
Methodology• Detailed analysis of aluminum content   – Segment   – Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)   – More than 9...
Core Findings www.aluminumintransportation.org   12
40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth                                                 Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle    ...
Aluminum Share Expected to Double                             100%                                    8%              11% ...
Component Analysis    www.aluminumintransportation.org   15
Aluminum Content in 2012                             Wheels                                                               ...
Aluminum Penetration for Key    Components in 2012Heat Exchangers                                                         ...
2009-2012 Aluminum Content Growth            Body, Bumper & Closure                                          58%   (over 5...
50% Percent of Knuckles                     Aluminum in 2012         60%                                                  ...
20% of All Bumpers Aluminum in 2012      25.0%                                                                            ...
Aluminum Hood Growth           35%                                       Over 30%                                    31%  ...
Evolution of Body-in-White Construction                                                                                   ...
Segment Analysis   www.aluminumintransportation.org   23
E Segment Vehicles Leader in Total        Aluminum Pounds Per Segment                                                     ...
Aluminum Percent of Curb Weight                  by Segment      12.0%                                9.6%    10.0%      9...
North American Aluminum                    Content Leaders                                                           Honda...
Top Aluminum Content Vehicles                                                                             2012 Ford Escape...
Ducker WorldwideAluminum Forecast   www.aluminumintransportation.org   28
Aluminum Growth Projected to Reach   400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016                                              Alum...
New Applications Required to     Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario                                                North Am...
Ducker Long Term Forecast                        Assumptions     •     51 MPG 2025* fuel economy target     •     10% aver...
Significant Growth For Aluminum                                  Predicted by 2025                                        ...
Aluminum Pounds Per Truck Predicted to Increase Dramatically      800                             Average Aluminum Pounds ...
Average Vehicle Must Lose Over               400 Lbs of Curb Weight by 2025                                Sources of Weig...
Average Net Cost of Direct and         Indirect Weight Reduction     • Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effect...
Ducker Study Conclusions     • Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations are       driving a dramatic increase in alumi...
Ducker Study Conclusions     • By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs.            – Aluminum and AHSS   ...
Question & Answer     Please submit questions through the box            that appears on your screen  For additional alumi...
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2011 sept.ducker webinar

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2011 sept.ducker webinar

  1. 1. The Changing Make Up of Automobiles Survey Results: Aluminum Usage by North American Automakers An Aluminum Association Webinar September 23, 2011 www.aluminumintransportation.org 1
  2. 2. Defining Who We AreThe Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG) www.aluminumintransportation.org 2
  3. 3. IntroductionsRandall Scheps Doug Richman ATG Chairman ATG Executive andMarketing Director Technical Committees Alcoa, Inc. Vice President Engineering & Technology Kaiser Aluminum www.aluminumintransportation.org 3
  4. 4. Why We are Here Today• Promote a holistic, multi-material approach combining strong lightweight materials like aluminum with smart design and advanced powertrains• Agenda – Benefits of Lightweighting with Aluminum – Results of 2011 Ducker Survey of Automakers on Aluminum Content in Passenger Vehicles – Q&A www.aluminumintransportation.org 4
  5. 5. Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing• Two main factors leading automakers to rethink vehicle design – Consumer demand and desire for increased fuel efficiency coupled with a need to continuously improve safety, function and comfort – New, stringent fuel economy standards www.aluminumintransportation.org 5
  6. 6. Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle Mass Better Fuel Reduction Economy Infinitely Reduced Recyclable Emissions Enhanced Improved Performance Safety www.aluminumintransportation.org 6
  7. 7. Automakers Confirm Plans to Downweight• Audi: To migrate aspects of the ASF® technology currently in the A8 to higher volume vehicles like the A6• BMW: To use more aluminum to cut weight• Ford: To trim 250-750 lbs. out of each model year• GM: To trim 500 lbs by 2016 and 1,000 lbs. by 2020• Jaguar Land Rover: To construct all future vehicles with aluminum bodies• Nissan: To reduce 15% of vehicle weight 7
  8. 8. Aluminum-Intensive Vehicles Today:Maintained Size, Decreased Weight 2011 Audi TT Roadster ASF 58% • Better fuel economy aluminum and Coupe ASF 69% aluminum Source: Audi • No downsizing 2011 Jaguar XJ All aluminum • Improved handling body structure saves 150kg compared to its competitors • Lower lifetime CO2 Source: Jaguar • Improved safety 2011 Audi A8 ASF all aluminum except the B-pillars Source: Audi • Enables cost savings www.aluminumintransportation.org 8
  9. 9. Aluminum in 2012 NorthAmerican Light Vehicles Survey of North American Automakers by Ducker Worldwide www.aluminumintransportation.org 9
  10. 10. Survey Objectives• Primary Objective – Accurate estimate of 2012 North American light vehicle aluminum content• Secondary Objective – Estimate “most likely” material mix through 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 10
  11. 11. Methodology• Detailed analysis of aluminum content – Segment – Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) – More than 90 components • Iron, steel, aluminum and magnesium • All product forms – cast, rolled and extruded• Interviews conducted with automotive engineers – Major OEMs – Tier One suppliers – Material producers www.aluminumintransportation.org 11
  12. 12. Core Findings www.aluminumintransportation.org 12
  13. 13. 40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 600 2012 500 Pounds per Vehicle 343 lbs per vehicle 400 Average increase of 7 lbs per year for 35 years 300 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 13Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  14. 14. Aluminum Share Expected to Double 100% 8% 11% 90% 16% 80% Percent of Material Mix 70% 42% 38% 30% Aluminum 60% 50% Flat Rolled Steel 40% 30% All Other 50% 51% 54% Materials 20% 10% 0% 2008 2015 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 14Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  15. 15. Component Analysis www.aluminumintransportation.org 15
  16. 16. Aluminum Content in 2012 Wheels 790 Transmissions 785 Cylinder Blocks 636 Cylinder Heads 588 Nearly 80% of engine blocks Heat Transfer 516 in 2012 are aluminum Other Engine 371 Brake Parts 130 Closures 126 Steering Knuckles 115 Record aluminum Intake Manifolds 112 content in 2012: Control Arms & Links 89 Transfer Cases 88 •Engine Blocks Bumpers 70 •Closures Differential Carriers 69 •Bumpers Other Steering 60 •Steering Knuckles Engine Mounts 49 •IP Structures Cradles & Crossmembers 24 IP Structure 23 Drive Shafts & Yokes 14 All Other Compnents 125 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Millions of Pounds www.aluminumintransportation.org 16Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  17. 17. Aluminum Penetration for Key Components in 2012Heat Exchangers 100% Transmission 100% Cylinder Heads 98% Cylinder Blocks 80% Wheels 70%Steering Knuckles 45% Control Arms 40% Hoods 31% Bumpers 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total Components www.aluminumintransportation.org 17
  18. 18. 2009-2012 Aluminum Content Growth Body, Bumper & Closure 58% (over 50% from closures) Crossmembers 19% Suspension 16% Steering 10% Average Increase 5% Wheels & Brakes 3% Transmission & Driveline 3% Engine 3% Heat Transfer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Total Pounds www.aluminumintransportation.org 18Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  19. 19. 50% Percent of Knuckles Aluminum in 2012 60% 50% 50% 39% 40% 30% 30% 17% 19% 20% 10% 1% 0% www.aluminumintransportation.org 19Source: Ducker Worldwide 2009 and 2011
  20. 20. 20% of All Bumpers Aluminum in 2012 25.0% 20% 20.0% 15.0% 11% 10.0% 9% 7% 5% 6% 5.0% 0.0% www.aluminumintransportation.org 20Source: Ducker Worldwide 2009 and 2011
  21. 21. Aluminum Hood Growth 35% Over 30% 31% 30% of all the hoods will be aluminum 23% 25% in 2012 20% 19% 14% 15% 10% 10% 6% 5% 0% www.aluminumintransportation.org 21Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  22. 22. Evolution of Body-in-White Construction Optimized Aluminum Multi-Material High Strength Aluminum Steel High Strength Alloy Aluminum Intensive Vehicle Steel & Aluminum Hybrid – Majority Aluminum Steel & Aluminum Hybrid – Majority Steel Today 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 22Source: Alcoa
  23. 23. Segment Analysis www.aluminumintransportation.org 23
  24. 24. E Segment Vehicles Leader in Total Aluminum Pounds Per Segment 2012 Aluminum Pounds per Segment 421 450 363 Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle 400 354 343 329 350 275 300 229 250 200 150 100 50 0 www.aluminumintransportation.org 24Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  25. 25. Aluminum Percent of Curb Weight by Segment 12.0% 9.6% 10.0% 9.7% 10.0% 8.5% 8.7% 9.0% 8.0% 6.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% www.aluminumintransportation.org 25Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  26. 26. North American Aluminum Content Leaders Honda content leader as percent of GM content leader at 366 lbs per vehicle curb weight at 10.7% per vehicle 2012 Chevrolet Malibu 2012 Honda CRV Aluminum Content 385 Lbs Aluminum Content 10.9% Source: General Motors Media Site Source: Honda Media Site www.aluminumintransportation.org 26Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  27. 27. Top Aluminum Content Vehicles 2012 Ford Escape Aluminum content 10.9% • Newer vehicles have average Source: Ford Media Site aluminum content 10.4% of vehicle curb weight (vs. 9%) - Cadillac ATS - Ford Fusion - Cadillac XTS - Honda Accord - Chevrolet Malibu - Honda Civic - Chrysler 300 - Honda CR-V 2012 Chrysler 300 Aluminum content 10.6% - Chrysler/Fiat C - Lincoln MKZ Source: Chrysler Media Site Sedan - Mercedes-Benz - Fiat 500 ML-Class - Ford Explorer - Nissan Altima 2012 Nissan Altima - Ford Escape - Toyota Avalon Aluminum content 11.1% Source: Nissan Media Site www.aluminumintransportation.org 27Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  28. 28. Ducker WorldwideAluminum Forecast www.aluminumintransportation.org 28
  29. 29. Aluminum Growth Projected to Reach 400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016 Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 600 2015 400 lbs per vehicle 2012 500 Pounds per Vehicle 343 lbs per vehicle The trend line continues 400 to be supported by new aluminum applications 300 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 29Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  30. 30. New Applications Required to Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Increases 25 Pounds per Vehicle 20 Pounds per Vehicle New Applications 11 (Primarily body, bumper 8 15 and closure components) 4 10 12 1 12 10 11 10 5 6 8 5 3 2 3 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 www.aluminumintransportation.org 30Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  31. 31. Ducker Long Term Forecast Assumptions • 51 MPG 2025* fuel economy target • 10% average weight reduction • 44% HEVs • 1 sq. ft. (2% from 2008 EPA base year) footprint reduction * Average based on 54.5 MPG for cars and at least 46.5 MPG for light trucks www.aluminumintransportation.org 31Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  32. 32. Significant Growth For Aluminum Predicted by 2025 Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 2025 550 lbs per vehicle 600 2012 500 Pounds per Vehicle 343 lbs per vehicle The trend line continues 400 to be supported by new aluminum applications 300 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 32Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  33. 33. Aluminum Pounds Per Truck Predicted to Increase Dramatically 800 Average Aluminum Pounds Per Vehicle Car vs. Light Truck 671 700 650 607 629 585 600 513 528 485 498 500 450 459 420 373 394 400 300 200 100 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Car Truck www.aluminumintransportation.org 33Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  34. 34. Average Vehicle Must Lose Over 400 Lbs of Curb Weight by 2025 Sources of Weight Savings for 4% CAGR for MPG Add 225 lbs. of AHSS Add 250 lbs. of aluminum 70, 17% 80, 20% Add 250 lbs. ofof Add 225 lbs. AHSS replacing mild steel Aluminum Weight compounding 78, 19% effect Compounding Weight Effect 1 sq. ft. footprint 180, 44% reductionFootprint One Reduce Square Foot 408 lbs. saved or 10% over 2008 (NHTSA/EPA base year) www.aluminumintransportation.org 34Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  35. 35. Average Net Cost of Direct and Indirect Weight Reduction • Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effective in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025 Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings Cost Dollar/Pound Saved Primary $2.00 Secondary ($1.82) Net Cost $0.18 www.aluminumintransportation.org 35Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011 & IBIS 2005
  36. 36. Ducker Study Conclusions • Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations are driving a dramatic increase in aluminum usage – Weight savings from aluminum and AHSS for body parts • Automakers working hard to improve fuel economy and maintain or improve size, function, safety and comfort • Weight reduction with aluminum is a cost effective part of the solution www.aluminumintransportation.org 36Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  37. 37. Ducker Study Conclusions • By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs. – Aluminum and AHSS – Aluminum • Sheet , extrusions • Closures, body-in-white, bumper, and suspension components • Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight – 343 pounds in 2012 – 550 pounds in 2025 – Increase of 207 lbs. in 13 years – Industry added 200 lbs. per vehicle from 1990 to 2010 • This is a conservative forecast www.aluminumintransportation.org 37Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  38. 38. Question & Answer Please submit questions through the box that appears on your screen For additional aluminum research in the areas of safety, cost, alternative powertrains, growth and sustainability, to sign-up forthe ATG’s monthly newsletter and/or download this presentation, please visit us online at www.aluminumintransportation.org or e-mail atginfo@aluminum.org Thank You www.aluminumintransportation.org 38

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