2011 apr saewc_pres

Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL
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A Past, Present and Practical
Look at the Global Future for
Aluminum in Light Vehicles
Presented at the 16th CRU World Aluminum Conference
13 -15 June 2011, Rey Juan Carlos, Spain

CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without
prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC.

1250 Maplelawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide

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A Past, Present and Practical Look at the Global Future for
Global Shipments of Aluminum for Light Vehicles
(Millions of Tons)
25.0

25 All Time Records

20 16.8

15 11.5

10 5.8

5

0
1999 2011 2017 2025
Past Present Current A Practical
Forecast Look
at the Future
Source: Ducker

Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide

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What we study to determine the current
and future use of aluminum in Light Vehicles

• Global Emission Mandates
• Regional Shifts by Vehicle Segment
• Changes in Vehicle Footprint
• Changes in Vehicle Curb Weight
• Changes in the Source for Propulsion
• Petrol Engine Displacement Trends
• Changes in the Types of Transmissions
• Individual OEM material strategies (early adopters)
• Aluminum Wheel Penetration
• Price of Aluminum relative to steel and Mg
• Competitive Material Strategies
• Consumer Preferences for Convenience & Safety
Moving Average for Oil Prices over the
2011-2020 Timeframe

Most important at the present time


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Global Light Vehicle Emissions
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Some OEMs and the Steel
Industry are vehemently
opposed to any and all
future mandates

34 Country Agreement
These agreements and proposals
China is not a member of intent are not “Mandates”

California is the NA key

U.S. Proposal of Intent

September 30, 2010 Joint Rulemaking EPA
Proposal for Intent on 2017- 2025 CAFE
70
2025 67 Actual or
60 Lowest
50 Value
2006 2030
MPG
Highest
40 Value
30
20
55 MPG is a
Source: Roland Berger Source: Ducker 10
Likely compromise
0


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2011 Global Light Vehicle Average Price Waterhouse Coopers has created
3
Curb Weight 2.7 segments such as A/B, C/D, D/E, E/F
2.5 2.3 and F/G to give us even finer size
Average is 1,500 kg categories for the purpose of detailed
1.9
Metric Tons

2 1.8 analysis. We use ten segments
1.7
based on the PWC segments in our
1.5 1.4
1.2
1.3 work which is based on a combination
1.1
1 of vehicle footprint, curb weight, interior
1
volume and engine displacement by
0.5
geographical region
Most analysts underestimate curb weight
0
A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F F/G North America typically uses
only seven vehicle segments
A segment is city cars, B segment is for the
cars known as super minis, C segment is for 2011 North American Light Vehicle
small family cars, D segment are called Metric Tons Curb Weights
large family cars, E segment cars are Maximum 2.8
3 Average is 1,800 kg
known as executive cars, F segment is
reserved for luxury cars. In North America 2.5 Minimum
1.85 2.0
1.8
this segment includes full frame pickup 2
trucks and SUVs. MPVs or Mimi Vans are 1.26 1.35
1.5
usually attributed to the B, C and D sedan 1
2.4
1.7 1.9
segments on which they are based. The G 1.2 1.3
1.6
0.5 1.1
segment is for very large vehicles with a
footprint approaching nine square meters 0
A B C Other D E Full Size
Source: Ducker FF FF

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Where are we today?

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The Current Global Situation for Aluminum in Light Vehicles

88% of All Aluminum Content is in these Four Vehicle
Systems
Heat Exchangers

Engines

Transmissions Wheels

Source: Ducker

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Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

The high torque
Size really does matter @ 300-400 kg gasoline engines
of total weight per square meter of and diesel engines
footprint. Smaller vehicles weigh pervasive in
more per square meter
2011 Kilograms/Vehicle segments E/F and
F/G currently use
180 iron engine blocks
164
159 157
160 Average will be 127 kg/vehicle 150 150

140 125
120 107
100
100 89
80
80
60
40
20
0
A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F
F/E F/G

2.5 Square 9 Square
Meters Footprint (wheelbase X width) Meters
400 kg/sq. meter 300 kg/sq. meter
Source: Ducker

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2011 Aluminum Content by Global Segment
2.5 Total is 9.6 Million Tons
2.051 of Aluminum Content in the
75 million light vehicles
Millions of Tons

2 C and D segments 1.883
to be assembled globally in
contain the most
1.458 2011
aluminum in total 1.36
1.5
1.06
1
0.676 0.624

0.5
0.242
0.115 0.036
0
A A/B B C C/D D D/E E F/E
E/F F/G

Global Vehicle Segment

Source: Ducker

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Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Shipments

2011 Aluminum Required for
Global Light Vehicles
87.7 kg
4.95 Million Tons
Misc.
66 kg

Struct.
Heat Trans Primary
43%
Trans.
Engines Secondary
Wheels 57%

6.55 Million Tons
Primary Secondary
11.5 Million Tons
Overall recovery is 83.5% of Shipments for
Secondary is limited by because 80% of the aluminum 75 Million Vehicles.
the availability of scrap is castings with only 10% sheet.
Steel will ship
The recovery for sheet is 67%.
Some OEMs maintain our recovery 90 Million tons
Source: Ducker estimates are a bit high


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Regional Differences
2011Finished Except for diesel blocks, the EEU
Kilograms is the leader for auto aluminum
130 kg 152 kg 123 kg 127 kg
Per Vehicle
All Other
100%
4% 2%
90% 10% Body, Bumper
4% 4%
12% 15% and Closures The hard
80% 8% 10%
Steering & to make
Steeing and
70% 10% 17% 16%
Brakes
parts
16% Brakes
60% 16% Suspension
21% 18%
50% 20%
14% Heat Transfer
40%
30%
42%
Wheels
20% 34% 38% 37%

10% Transmissions
0%
EEU North Japan Global Engines
America

Source: Ducker

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2011 Aluminum Percent of Curb Weight by Global
Segment
Average for 2011 will be 8.5%
10% 8.90% 8.90% 9.10%
9% 8.10% 8.30% 8.20% 8.40% The aluminum
8%
content in the E/F
8%
6.80% and F/G segments
7%
5.60% is over 150 kg, but
6%
the curb weight is
5% over 2,500 kg
4% resulting in a low
3% aluminum percent
2% of curb weight
1%
0%
F/E F/G

The best measure of aluminum industry progress is aluminum’s share of global curb weight

Source: Ducker

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40 Years of
Uninterrupted Growth for
Aluminum Content as a
% of curb

The average is 3 kg per year
or 3.8% CAGR over the 40 years

Beginning of Fuel
Economy Mandates

Source: Ducker

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What about the Future?

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The Future for Aluminum in Light Vehicles

Suspensions and Steering
Brakes

Roofs

Pickup Truck Ladder Frames

Body &
Safety Cage

Unibody

Hoods
Doors Subframes
Source: Ducker

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- History and Forecast -

Aluminum percent of Global Curb Weight
with Trendline Forecast Business as usual
12.00%
10%
10.00% Aluminum has been below the trend line
in the last few years, but should be back
8.00% on the trend line in 2011
8.5% in 2011
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Calendar Year

Source: Ducker

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12% is possible by 2020 in NA
and the EEU, but not worldwide
Aluminum percent of
12.00%
Global Curb Weight 12%
Trend Line Forecasts
10.00% 10%
8.5 % in 2011
8.00%

Recent high levels of aluminum
6.00%
activity have caused some to
suggest we abandon
4.00% the trend line and aim higher

2.00%

0.00%
2020
Calendar Year

Source: Ducker

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Global Light Vehicle Production
The C Segment is important,
Global Segment Growth but D Segment Vehicles
25000000 are critical for Al success
We expect 98 million vehicles
C
Production by Segment

to be assembled globally in 2017
20000000 A
A/B
D B
15000000 C
C/D
D
10000000
D/E
E
5000000 E/F
F/G

0
1990 2000 2010 2017

Calendar Year
Source: PWC & Ducker

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Global Light Vehicle Production Change by Segment
Mix going forward is favorable to aluminum.
The world is not moving completely to small
vehicles, at least not yet

Segment Volume Percent Increase by 2017 vs. 2011
1.2
Aluminum in the average 2011 vehicle
1 150
164 159 157
Percent Increase

80 kg 107 150
0.8 127

0.6 100 125
89
0.4

0.2

0

Global Segment

Source: Ducker

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2017 Most Probable Forecast of the
Global Aluminum Use for Light Vehicles
Shipments for Light Vehicles Millions of Tons
Secondary Base Primary Base This is a significant increase, but only 9.3%
Vehicle Growth Segment Shift of the 2017 Global Curb Weight of 1,470 kg
Increased Penetration New/Recent Applications

16.8 0.85 Shipment Increase by 2017
1
0.5 15%

11.5 3.45 More Vehicles
17%

Favorable Mix
4.95 4.95
59% Increased
Penetration
9%
6.55 6.55 New
Applications

5.3 Million Metric Ton Increase
2011 2017
Source: Ducker

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Complete Body Structures - Longer Term Global Forecast -
and Bumper Beams
Closures

Deck
Door Outer
All these
parts
require
primary

Hood
Door Outer

Fenders
Bumpers
Source: Ducker

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Other target parts for widespread global conversion to aluminum
Cast Steering Knuckle Front End with Shock Tower Cast Shock Tower

These are the most attractive parts for widespread
conversion to aluminum in the next fifteen years

Complete Stamped Door Structure All these
parts
require
primary

Forged Suspension Arm

Source: Ducker

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Regional penetration analysis and regional vehicle
segment analysis are the basis of our long term forecasts

Aluminum Penetration Changes for Existing Key
Components at their Current Growth Rate
100% 100%
New Alloys needed
to get blocks to 100%
Thermal
China & NA are the leaders
Conductivity
Prevails Japan is the leader
Wheels will Struggle
to get this high Japan & EEU are leaders
Trend lines by region worldwide
NA is the leader
are available @ 40%
www.ducker.com EEU is the leader
Hoods are a
proxy for all closures
except doors

Zero
2023 2029
The components that contributed
the most to the tremendous growth of
aluminum use in light vehicles since 1980
Source: Ducker
will plateau over the next 5 to 10 years

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A Practical Look at Global

Content plus Scrap plus Spare Parts
83.5% Providing scrap
Recovery Shipments of 25 Million Tons in 2025 is available
50% Primary & 50% Secondary Aluminum

168 kg/v of global content In an OEM peer
review, the consensus
Total was that our 2025 forecast
Total
7.35 may be too conservative.
7.15

The 79% recovery
assumption for
2025 could be
as low as 75%
as even more
mill products
are required This would
require the
entire magnesium
Aluminum industry to nearly
47 Million triple
2011 Base Shipment
More Vehicles Minus 1.25 in size by
Growth 2025
Losses to
This global forecast is the end result of 55 kg/v
Magnesium
of several separate regional forecasts Source: Ducker

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A Past, Present and Practical Look at the Global Future for
Global Aluminum Shipments for Light Vehicles
(Millions of Tons) 25.0
Depends
6% CAGR
on Scrap
25 1.5
16.8
20 12.5
11.5 Primary
15 7.6

5.8
10 4.9

11 Secondary
2.5 9.2
5 6.6
3.3
0
1999 2011 2017 2025
Calendar Millions of Millions Shipments Content
Year Vehicles of Tons kg/v kg/v
1999 54 5.8 107 89
2011 75 11.5 153 127
2017 98 16.8 171 142
2025 122 25 200 168
Source: Ducker

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Final Comments and Recommendations
To achieve a long term (2011-2025) annual growth rate for aluminum
of three to four kilograms per light vehicle worldwide and an
above average six kilograms per vehicle in North America:
1. The global downstream aluminum supply base will need to invest at least $3.5
billion in new facilities with one billion of that in North America
2. The aluminum industry will need to return to the 1990’s level of auto industry
support not just for sheet, but for structural forgings, hydro formed extrusions,
high ductility permanent mold castings and vacuum assisted high pressure die
castings. New suppliers with names most of us won’t recognize are likely to
emerge to fill the void left by the large integrated aluminum companies
3. Global aluminum auto part product development and downstream cost
reduction, including ingot casting, will be necessary to help insure success
4. Average oil prices of $100 to $125 per barrel for most of this decade (not to
low and not too high). High prices for petrol hurt the vehicle mix for aluminum,
particularly for castings, but high prices help drive new applications
5. Mandates of 55 miles per gallon or the equivalent in CO2 emissions of
160 g/mile in North America, Europe, Japan and China must be enacted at the
latest by 2020 with an effective date by at least 2025


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This concludes our presentation. Thank you.
This presentation was prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitute
judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Any
interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client.
Reproduction without the explicit consent of Ducker Worldwide LLC is strictly prohibited.

For more information, copies of these slides and/or
an exclusive consulting contract please contact:

Richard Schultz
Ducker Worldwide
1.724.940.9018
richards@ducker.com
For over 50 years, Ducker Worldwide has enabled clients to navigate and thrive in a dynamic, global
marketplace. Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and
strategic consulting create valuable opportunities that deliver critical results.

For more information regarding our strategic services, expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can help

you, please contact one of our team members at 248-644-0086 or visit our website
at www.ducker.com
1250 Maplelawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
27

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Literature Review:

1. Lotus Engineering, Inc. --- An Assessment of Mass Reduction Opportunities
for a 2017-2020 Model Year Vehicle Program, March 30, 2010
2. Multi-Material Light Weighting the Vehicle Structure – EU Super Light Car,
Volkswagen Group Research, May, 2008
3. Stiffness Relevance and Strength Relevance in the Crash of Car Body
Components, University of Aachen Report Number 83440, May, 2010
4. Preliminary Vehicle Mass Estimation Using Empirical Subsystem Influence
Coefficients, Donald E. Mallen, University of Michigan, May 2007

Acknowledgements:

The author wishes to thank Ford Motor Company, General Motors,
Honda Motor Company, American Iron and Steel Association, US. and Canadian
Aluminum Associations, Compass Auto Group, Meridian Technologies, Kobe
Auto Aluminum Products, Revstone-Contech, Kaiser Aluminum, Alcoa,
Raufoss Technologies and Novelis for their help with this presentation

1250 Maple lawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086
Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide 28

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About the Author

Dick Schultz, Managing Director of the Automotive Materials Practice for Ducker Worldwide

Prior to joining Ducker Worldwide , Dick was the President of Alcoa Automotive Structures and the
Director of Worldwide Automotive Products for Alcoa in Farmington Hills, Michigan. He has over
twenty years of experience in applying the latest aluminum, magnesium and steel technology to
automotive applications around the world. After joining Ducker, Dick has managed over 50 research
projects for the EPA, ORNL, Aluminum Association, AISI Automotive Applications Committee and
numerous aluminum and steel component suppliers worldwide.

Dick has a B.S. in Metallurgical Engineering from the University of Cincinnati and an MBA from the
University of Pittsburgh. He has also completed extensive course work in Managing Complex
Organizations at the M.I.T. Sloan School. Dick has over 50 years of experience in materials science

Under Dick’s guidance as both a client and team leader at Ducker:

Ducker Worldwide has collected data on the growth and development of aluminum and
magnesium content in automotive light vehicle applications on an annual basis since 1991. Data
collection and analysis on steel for automotive began in 1998
Ducker started its systematic efforts in North America, expanded into Europe and Japan and then
began collecting data for the remainder of the world in 2007
Data are collected on a “bottom-up” basis, meaning the market has been tracked on an OEM,
platform-by-platform and product-by-product basis. With metallurgists, engineers, and component
specialists on staff, Ducker has become a leading subject-matter-expert for the global automotive
industry on light weighting by increasing aluminum content, magnesium content and the use of the
“new “ steels across all light vehicle systems

29


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Extra Slides

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2011 Production by Segment
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000 C Segment is important in
the EEU and China EEU
4,000,000
North America
3,000,000
China
2,000,000
Japan
1,000,000
-
F/E F/G

2011 Segment Share of Production
40
35
30 D Segment and larger
vehicles are popular in NA EEU
Percent

25
20 China
15 North America
10 Japan
5
-
F/E F/G


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60000000
Total for all regions in 2017
is expected to be 98 Million.
Regional Production

50000000 We expect 75 Million in 2011

40000000 Asia Pacific
North America
30000000 European Union
Eastern Europe
20000000 South America
Middle East/Africa
10000000

0
1990 2000 2010 2017

Calendar Year

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Asia Light Vehicle Production

Vehicle Production by Major Country China is expected to assemble
25000000 23 Million over 23 Million vehicles in 2017.
It is a misconception that the
Country Production

vehicles in China are all small.
20000000 The average vehicle in China is close
in size to the average EEU vehicle,
and uses more aluminum than
the average vehicle in Japan
15000000

China
10000000
India
5000000
Japan
0
South Korea
1990 2000 2010 2017

Calendar Year



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The latest data on the total mix of materials in North American light vehicles is
shown below

2010 Light Vehicle Content Pounds and
Percent

Flat Rolled Steel

Other Steel
838, 21.9%
Aluminumm
103, 3% 1628, 42%
Iron
52, 1%
Copper
305, 7.9%
Other Metals
1. Other steel is primarily
All other Materials long products (rod, bar and
structural shapes)
330, 8.6% 606, 15.6% 2. Other metals are lead, zinc,
magnesium, titanium,
platinum and other precious
metals
Total of 3,863 Pounds 3. Other materials are polymers,
glass, rubber, textiles, wood,
Historical Curb weight estimates have been raised. coatings and fluids such as
This has forced us to lower the historical share for aluminum, oil and gasoline
and slightly raise our estimates for flat rolled steel

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The shift to more unibody vehicles will cost the steel industry over 500 pounds per vehicle or 20%,
but the impact on aluminum is less than 10 pounds per vehicle or 3%

North America Light Vehicle Body Architecture
90
Full Frame Unibody 78.9 79.5 79.8 80
80 73.7 72.8 73.7 76.2 77.6

70 65.8 65.7
62.3
59.3 59.9 59.5 57.9 57.7
60
Percent

50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4,050 LBS Impact of Architecture alone 3,775 LBS

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Segment Share of 2012 NA Vehicle Production

A-Segment
0%
B-Segment
4%

Percent of aluminum weight???

Full-Size Full-Frame
Compact Full-Frame 19%
3% C-Segment
23%
Mini Full-Frame
0%

E-Segment
15%

D-Segment
36%

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Aluminum Suspension Arm Aluminum Steering Knuckle
____ Million in 2012 ____ Million in 2012

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The differential “carrier” is the outside
protective housing of the entire differential
and rear axle assembly.
It is the part exposed to the outside
environment.
In North America, the differential “case” is the
part inside the differential carrier that houses
the gear
Front differential carriers are HPDC
aluminum. Rears are permanent mold

This part can weigh up to 16 pounds

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Ladder frame
Ladder frame
weighs 500 pounds

Cab weighs
Closures weigh over 500 pounds
over 300 pounds

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Low volume aluminum components have now become high volume components

25% of all the bumper beams
used in 2012 will be aluminum

Over 20 million aluminum 32% of all the light vehicles assembled
powertrain mounts in North America in 2012 will use
will be used in the 2012 an aluminum hood
light vehicles.
These parts can be cast,
extruded or forged

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2012 NA Light Vehicle Curb Weight

A-Segment 2397.5

B-Segment 2721

C-Segment 2867.3

D-Segment 3597.4

Unibody Average 3,480

E-Segment 4320.9

Compact /Mini Full-Frame 3718

Full-Size Full-Frame 5115.2

Full Frame Average 4,902

Unibody & FF Average 3,798

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Pounds per Vehicle

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Ducker Worldwide --- Estimates of Aluminum Content in Light Vehicles

GM Share of 2012 NA Total
Closures 25%

Bumpers 29%

Subframes 20%

Knuckles 40%

Control Arms 34%

Drive Shafts 31%

Transfer Cases 37%

Wheels 23%

Heads 24%

Blocks 20%

Total Vehicles 23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Source: Ducker 2011

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Ducker Worldwide – Estimates of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content
100
93.2

90 GM 2012 Aluminum Content per Light Vehicle
80 By Component and System
70
Pounds per Vehicle

57.9
60 56

50 45.3 44.7

40

30

20 13.7 14
11.1
9.3 7.6
10 4.6 3.7
2.2 1.6 2.8
0.2
0

Source: Ducker 2011

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Ducker Worldwide ---- Estimates of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

2012 GM Pounds of Aluminum per Vehicle
GMC Yukon(GMT922) 415.49
GMC Sierra(GMT902) 354.35
GMC Sierra HD(GMT912) 344.21
GMC Savana(GMT610) 299.10
Chevrolet Tahoe(GMT921) 422.73
Chevrolet Suburban(GMT931) 436.49 Ducker expects
Chevrolet Silverado(GMT901) 378.25
Chevrolet Silverado HD(GMT911) 311.02 the 2012 GM
Chevrolet Express(GMT610) 299.21 average to be
Chevrolet Avalanche(GMT941) 408.14
Cadillac Escalade(GMT926) 424.71 between 365 lbs.
Cadillac Escalade EXT(GMT946) 429.92
Cadillac Escalade ESV(GMT936) 424.55 and 370 lbs.
GMC Acadia(GMT968) 425.67
Chevrolet Traverse(GMT561) 437.52 per vehicle
Chevrolet Impala(GMX211) 429.26
Cadillac XTS(P1LL) 405.82
Cadillac CTS(GMX322) 508.02
Cadillac CTS Sport Wagon(GMX206) 415.78
Buick Enclave(GMT967) 425.67
Chevrolet Camaro(GMX521) 465.42
Saab 9-4X(GMT168) 403.58
GMC Terrain(GMT177) 382.84
Chevrolet Equinox(GMT172) 391.03 The North American
Chevrolet Captiva Sport(GMT311) 375.03
Cadillac SRX(GMT166) 438.04 average is expected
Cadillac CTS Coupe(GMX226) 418.21 to be between 342 lbs.
Chevrolet Malibu(GMX351) 382.67
Buick Regal(GMX350) 271.00 and 345 lbs. per
Buick LaCrosse(GMX353) 448.01
Opel Ampera(D1JOI) 340.41 vehicle in 2012
Chevrolet Volt(D1JCI) 346.37
Chevrolet Cruze(D1SC) 266.63
Chevrolet Corvette(GMX245) 501.40
Cadillac ATS(A1SL) 358.87
Buick Verano(D1SB) 327.07
GMC Canyon(GMT355) 276.15
Chevrolet Colorado(GMT355) 283.87
Chevrolet Sonic(G1SC) 252.49
Chevrolet B-CUV(G1UC) 222.66
Chevrolet Aveo(T250/T255) 220.09

Ducker: Ducker 2011 - 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00

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After a short period of slow growth, North American Light Vehicle aluminum
content growth will take a large step back toward the long term trend line in 2012

450
Aluminum Pounds per Light Vehicle
400 393
History and Forecast 373

350 343 Forecast
330
316 325
295
300
Pounds

275
258
242
250
224
202
200 183
165
150
150 137 141
130
114
100 87

50

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

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Strictly Confidential

North American Forecast of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content
One Scenario for 250 kg/vehicle

2025 Aluminum by System
Saves 64 kg over 2011 average vehicle weight
(83 kilograms with weight compounding) 250
System/Component % kg
Exponential Trend Line Powertrain 90% 95 *
The slope of the curve at any Wheels 73% 26
two points is determined by Chassis, Suspension
and Steering 50% 20
actions in the prior 3-5 years
Heat Transfer 100% 19
Closures 40% 30
Actual Values 2012 Inversion
Brakes 60% 5
Bumpers 20% 2
Door Inners 25% 9
Front Ends/BIW
NA is poised to Equivalents 15% 31
reclaim the Shock Towers 70% 9
leadership role for All Other NA 4
aluminum from the EEC Total Share of Curb 15.6% 250

Curb Weight of 1,600 kg & 4.3 **SMFP
2 kg/v 4 kg/v 6 kg/v
1977 2025
By 2025, we expect 40%
*Powertrain includes some Hybrid and 10% Electric
losses to magnesium engines in the U.S. This
is expected to have a positive impact
** SMFP is Square meters of footprint Source: Ducker on aluminum mill products

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Aluminum content in North America will increase from 9% today to 16% by 2025

2010 2015

22% 23%
Ferrous Ferrous
4% Aluminum 4% Aluminum
65.4% Other Metals 62.5% Other Metals
8.6% Non Metallics 10.5% Non Metallics

3863 Pounds +/- 25 3,725 Pounds +/- 50

2025 Announced Plan for European
Luxury Sedans

25% Ferrous
18%
Aluminum Ferrous
45%
Light Metals
5% 54% Other Metals 15%
Non Metallics Polymers
16%
All other
22%

3520 Pounds +/- 80
3,700 Pounds +/- 100
Excludes Secondary Weight Savings

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The substitution of Iron and Steel with Aluminum will be the most important driver
in future curb weight reduction excluding secondary weight savings

3000
Measuring Curb Weight is imprecise,
4,100 but no matter how it is measured
2539 the trend is down
2500 4,000
2394
- 25% 3,900 Curb Weight One

3,800
Pounds per Vehicle

Curb Weight Two
2000 3,700
1905 3,600 Linear (Curb
3,500 Weight One)
A 10%-15%% decline over Linear (Curb
3,400
1500 20 years is expected Weight Two)
3,300
3,200
2005 2010 2015 2025
1000
900
839 856 2010
+ 65%
550 2015
500
390
2025
330
155 160 165

0
Ferrous Aluminum Other Metals Non Metallics

Material content in North American Light Vehicles

ducker.com

Future Curb Weight
4000
3900 3,867 lbs.
Saves
Vehicle Mix and Footprint
Curb Weight in Pounds

3800 84 pounds
Materials
3700
259 pounds
3600
3500 A 500 pound (13%) decrease in curb weight 170 pounds
3400 without sacrificing comfort, safety or
performance can be accomplished
3300 3,350 lbs.

3200
3100
3000
2010
2009 2012 2015 2025
Vehicle Mix Material Substitution Secondary Savings and Engine Resizeing

2011 apr saewc_pres

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