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2011 NIJ Crime Mapping Conference - Data Mining and Risk Forecasting in Web-based Analysis Tools

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Azavea
Azavea
1 of 41
340 N 12 th St, Suite 402 Philadelphia, PA 19107 215.925.2600 [email_address] www.azavea.com/hunchlab Data Mining and Risk Forecasting in Web-Based Analysis Tools
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
About Azavea ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Clients & Industries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HunchLab was developed, in part, based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Nos. IIP-0637589 and IIP-0750507.
The Backstory
How Phila PD uses GIS ,[object Object],Weekly CompStat Meetings Web Crime Analysis
Complainant 911 Operator Radio Dispatcher Police Officer District 48 Desk Daily download & Geocoding Routines Incident Report Completed by Officer Maps distributed Through Intranet, Printing, CompStat INCT & PARS – main database sources  over 5,000 incidents daily, over 2 million annually CAD Verizon 911 INCT District X District Y District Z PARS
The Context ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3 crime analysts
How can software help?
Our goals with software ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis
Contagious Crime? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Jerry Ratcliffe Temple University
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Load Forecasting
Improving CompStat ,[object Object],[object Object]
What Do We Mean By Load Forecasting? ,[object Object],[object Object],bit.ly/gorrcrimeforecastingpaper Measure cyclical patterns Identify non-cyclical trend Forecast expected count +
Load Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Load Forecasting
Load Forecasting
Load Forecasting
Load Forecasting
Load Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Load Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Load Forecasting bit.ly/gorrcrimeforecastingpaper Measure cyclical patterns Identify non-cyclical trend Forecast expected count +
How Do We Know It ’s Accurate? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How Do We Know It ’s Accurate? ,[object Object],Last 30 Days Last Year Load Forecast Error Reduction Philadelphia - Citywide 6.8% 6.5% 4.1% 39% Philadelphia - Divisions 8.1% 8.4% 5.8% 28% Philadelphia - Districts 10.9% 11.7% 9.3% 15% Lincoln, NE - Citywide 13% 11% 10% 23%
Improving CompStat ,[object Object],[object Object]
Improving CompStat
What’s next?
Contact Information Jeremy Heffner HunchLab Product Manager [email_address] 215.701.7712 www.azavea.com/hunchlab

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Editor's Notes

  1. We make custom map requests, provide data for CompStat and support a Web site that is updated daily to support daily functions of districts.