http://www.azavea.com/hunchlab This is a rather technical dive into the near repeat pattern analysis and load forecasting features that we've built into HunchLab. Both of these features are aimed at helping a law enforcement agency to better predict risk levels across their jurisdictions and allocate resources according. While no application of predictive analytics will be perfect, forecasting risk based on models of the past can help officers and analysts to anticipate the appropriate next steps. Near repeat pattern analysis helps officers quantify the risk that arises from multiple incidents happening close to one another in space and time. What we are quantifying is how the fact that your neighbor's house is burgled raises your risk of a burglary in the coming days and weeks. With load forecasting we are looking at cyclical temporal patterns in incidents. How does the time of year, time of day, and day of week change the levels of crime incidents that we should expect across a jurisdiction? By modeling these cyclical patterns we can project crime levels into the future, helping law enforcement agencies to allocate resources appropriately as well as better manage organizational accountability.

1. 340 N 12 th St, Suite 402 Philadelphia, PA 19107 215.925.2600 [email_address] www.azavea.com/hunchlab Crime Risk Forecasting Near Repeat Pattern Analysis and Load Forecasting

2. About Us Robert Cheetham President & CEO [email_address] 215.701.7713 Jeremy Heffner HunchLab Product Manager [email_address] 215.701.7712

6. Azavea & Governments

7. HunchLab

11. Near Repeat Pattern Analysis

16. Near Repeat Pattern Analysis

17. Near Repeat Pattern Analysis

18. Near Repeat Pattern Analysis

19. Near Repeat Pattern Analysis

22. Load Forecasting

26. Load Forecasting

27. Load Forecasting

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29. Load Forecasting

32. Load Forecasting bit.ly/gorrcrimeforecastingpaper Measure cyclical patterns Identify non-cyclical trend Forecast expected count +

35. Research Topics

38. Q&A

39. Contact Us Robert Cheetham President & CEO [email_address] 215.701.7713 Jeremy Heffner HunchLab Product Manager [email_address] 215.701.7712