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The Mongolian Investment Case in the
Context of Negative International Perception
James Passin
Principal
Firebird Management LLC
2014 Mongolian Investment Summit
Disclaimer
This Presentation is confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed in any jurisdiction except with the prior
express written consent of FG2 Advisors, LLC (“FG2”). The Presentation is for informational purposes only, and is
intended only for those recipients to whom it is delivered by FG2. By accepting this Presentation, the recipient
agrees that it will not, and it will cause its directors, partners, officers, employees and representatives to not,
divulge any such information to any other party.
Nothing herein should be considered a recommendation by FG2 of any security, assets or investment. In
preparing this Presentation, FG2 has relied upon and assumed the accuracy and completeness of all information
available from public sources or which was provided to or reviewed by it. FG2 has no obligation to update or keep
current the information contained herein. FG2 does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information contained herein. This Presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or a
solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, investment product, or investment advisory services described
herein. Any offering will be made only by means of a private placement memorandum or other appropriate
materials (the “Offering Documents”) that will contain detailed information about any investment to be offered. The
terms of any investment described herein are subject to change. Any Fund and any interests therein have not
been and will not be registered, guaranteed, approved or disapproved under or by the securities laws of the United
States or any other jurisdiction nor by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other government
agency or authority.
Certain statements and information in this Presentation constitute “forward-looking statements” and forward-
looking information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things,
projections, forecasts or estimates of cash flows, yields or returns, scenario analyses and proposed or expected
portfolio composition. When used in this Presentation, the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” and
similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking
statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual
results, performance or achievements of a Fund to differ materially from any future results, performance or
achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in this
Presentation speak only as of the date hereof. FG2 expressly disclaims any obligation to disseminate any
updates to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in its expectation with regard
thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
2
Crash in All Listed Mongolian Proxies
3
Mongolia Energy (HK) Turquoise Hill (NYSE)
Entrée Gold (TSXVX) Petro Matad (AIM)
4
Local Mongolian Stocks Crashed
5
• MSE Top 20 Index
Currency: Mongolian Tugrik
5
Mongolian Currency Devalued- (USDMNT) – 3 years
Mongolian Election Cycle vs MSETOP 20
6
7
Mongolian USD Treasury Bonds
Intriguing Recent Recovery in Prices
6
Mongolian 10-Year Bond (price)
Compression of Currency Volatility:
Indication of Improving Macro Stability?
8
Tugrik vs. USD (MNTUSD) Historic Vol
Bearish Macro Environment for Resource
Venture Capital -- Round Trip to 2008!
9
Toronto Venture Exchange Composite Index
The New China vs. the Old China
10
International Brands Enter the Mongolian Market
Market Entrants Since 2013
11
A Massive Pipeline of Industrial/Infra Projects
12
COAL TO GAS
• $30.0 bln
IRON ORE
CLUSTER
• $1.0 bln
RAILWAYS
• $16.0 bln
COAL TO
LIQUIDS
• $2.5 bln
COPPER
SMELTER
• $2.0 bln
HIGHWAYS
• $0.46 bln
COAL WASHING
• $0.08 bln
OIL
PRODUCTION
• $0.8 bln
OIL REFINERY
• $1.20 bln
POEWR PLANT
on TT COAL
MINE
• $1.0 bln
POWER PLANT
V
• $1.2 bln
Mongolia: The Next Qatar?
13
Real GDP/Capita - Qatar (starting 1970) vs Mongolia (starting 1991)
Source: Bloomberg
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mongolia (starting 1991) Qatar (starting 1970)
Mongolia Today 2013
Mongolia in 2034?
Mongolia 1991
14
Mongolian GDP – Late 13th Century
14
THANK YOU
FG2 Advisors LLC
152 W. 57th St., 24th Floor
New York, NY 10019 USA
Tel: (1) 212 698 9260
Fax: (1) 212 698 2666
www.fbird.com
Contact: Ellen D’Aleo, Client Services
Email: edaleo@fbird.com
15

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18.11.2014 The Mongolian investment case in the context of negative international perception, James Passin

  • 1. The Mongolian Investment Case in the Context of Negative International Perception James Passin Principal Firebird Management LLC 2014 Mongolian Investment Summit
  • 2. Disclaimer This Presentation is confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed in any jurisdiction except with the prior express written consent of FG2 Advisors, LLC (“FG2”). The Presentation is for informational purposes only, and is intended only for those recipients to whom it is delivered by FG2. By accepting this Presentation, the recipient agrees that it will not, and it will cause its directors, partners, officers, employees and representatives to not, divulge any such information to any other party. Nothing herein should be considered a recommendation by FG2 of any security, assets or investment. In preparing this Presentation, FG2 has relied upon and assumed the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to or reviewed by it. FG2 has no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. FG2 does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. This Presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, investment product, or investment advisory services described herein. Any offering will be made only by means of a private placement memorandum or other appropriate materials (the “Offering Documents”) that will contain detailed information about any investment to be offered. The terms of any investment described herein are subject to change. Any Fund and any interests therein have not been and will not be registered, guaranteed, approved or disapproved under or by the securities laws of the United States or any other jurisdiction nor by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other government agency or authority. Certain statements and information in this Presentation constitute “forward-looking statements” and forward- looking information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts or estimates of cash flows, yields or returns, scenario analyses and proposed or expected portfolio composition. When used in this Presentation, the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” and similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of a Fund to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in this Presentation speak only as of the date hereof. FG2 expressly disclaims any obligation to disseminate any updates to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in its expectation with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. 2
  • 3. Crash in All Listed Mongolian Proxies 3 Mongolia Energy (HK) Turquoise Hill (NYSE) Entrée Gold (TSXVX) Petro Matad (AIM)
  • 4. 4 Local Mongolian Stocks Crashed 5 • MSE Top 20 Index
  • 5. Currency: Mongolian Tugrik 5 Mongolian Currency Devalued- (USDMNT) – 3 years
  • 6. Mongolian Election Cycle vs MSETOP 20 6
  • 7. 7 Mongolian USD Treasury Bonds Intriguing Recent Recovery in Prices 6 Mongolian 10-Year Bond (price)
  • 8. Compression of Currency Volatility: Indication of Improving Macro Stability? 8 Tugrik vs. USD (MNTUSD) Historic Vol
  • 9. Bearish Macro Environment for Resource Venture Capital -- Round Trip to 2008! 9 Toronto Venture Exchange Composite Index
  • 10. The New China vs. the Old China 10
  • 11. International Brands Enter the Mongolian Market Market Entrants Since 2013 11
  • 12. A Massive Pipeline of Industrial/Infra Projects 12 COAL TO GAS • $30.0 bln IRON ORE CLUSTER • $1.0 bln RAILWAYS • $16.0 bln COAL TO LIQUIDS • $2.5 bln COPPER SMELTER • $2.0 bln HIGHWAYS • $0.46 bln COAL WASHING • $0.08 bln OIL PRODUCTION • $0.8 bln OIL REFINERY • $1.20 bln POEWR PLANT on TT COAL MINE • $1.0 bln POWER PLANT V • $1.2 bln
  • 13. Mongolia: The Next Qatar? 13 Real GDP/Capita - Qatar (starting 1970) vs Mongolia (starting 1991) Source: Bloomberg $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mongolia (starting 1991) Qatar (starting 1970) Mongolia Today 2013 Mongolia in 2034? Mongolia 1991
  • 14. 14 Mongolian GDP – Late 13th Century 14
  • 15. THANK YOU FG2 Advisors LLC 152 W. 57th St., 24th Floor New York, NY 10019 USA Tel: (1) 212 698 9260 Fax: (1) 212 698 2666 www.fbird.com Contact: Ellen D’Aleo, Client Services Email: edaleo@fbird.com 15