The document provides information on Euro-Buxl bond futures, which allow investors to hedge long-term German government debt. It discusses the contract specifications, correlation with German bond yields of various maturities, technical indicators for trading, and risks of backtested strategies. Euro-Buxl futures are most correlated with 30-year German bond yields and Ichimoku analysis shows a 71% win rate based on historical data backtesting. However, backtested results have limitations and may not reflect actual trading performance.

1. Euro-Buxl
By Century Financial in Investment Insights
* Trading in financial market carries risk and can result in loss of capital.
* This performance is only observed with historical backtests and not traded by the company.
The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the
recipient and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading in financial markets and use of margin
involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete
disclaimer carefully.
The Buxl is a German bond, issued by the German Debt Agency, and is a long-term
financial instrument. The German Debt Agency has various terms of bonds that it
issues, as with most governments. Euro-Buxl futures offer an opportunity to hedge
long-term debt issued by the Federal Republic of Germany with a term of 24 to 35
years.
Specs
Euro-Buxl Bond Futures
Contract Size The face value at maturity is of €100,000
Tick Size €20 per contract

2. Contract Size €100,000
Contract Months March, June, September, and December quarterly cycle
Last Trading Day Two exchange trading days prior to the tenth calendar day of the expiration month
Trading Hours* 1:10 AM - 10:00 PM (CET)
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 30th June 2022
* Subject to change
Correlation Metrics
In the correlation metric below, UB1 represents the Euro-Buxl Bond Future, and
GDBR2, GDBR5, GDBR10, GDBR20 and GDBR30, represent the German yields of
2, 5, 10, 20, and 30-year bonds, respectively.The metric depicts that the Ultra
bond has the highest negative correlation of -0.668 with the GDBR30,
indicating that the Buxl bond prices are most influenced by the 30-year bond
yields.
Security UB1 GDBR2 GDBR5 GDBR10 GDBR20
UB1 1.000 -0.165 -0.092 -0.412 -0.030
GDBR2 -0.165 1.000 0.013 0.037 0.006
GDBR5 -0.092 0.013 1.000 0.060 0.009
GDBR10 -0.412 0.037 0.060 1.000 0.065
GDBR20 -0.030 0.006 0.009 0.065 1.000
GDBR30
-0.668
0.116 0.140 0.820 0.070
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 30th June 2022
Best Technical Indicators to Trade Euro-Buxl Bond
Futures
Based on Bloomberg back testing in a daily timeframe, Ichimoku has a 71%-win ratio
for Euro-Buxl Bond Futures.
Strategy Wins in % Losses in %
Ichimoku (GOC) 71.43 28.57
Source: Bloomberg
Date: 30th June 2022
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies

3. The risks and assumptions listed here are not intended to be an exhaustive
summary of all the risks and assumptions involved.
The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to the use
of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been
known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to
inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical
price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where
performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as
accurate in the future.
The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the
difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the
trade is actually executed.

4. Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and
losses could be significant in the event of leverage.
Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested
trading strategy.
The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from
Bloomberg.
The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by
Bloomberg.
The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and
backfill bias.
Data Source: Bloomberg
Data as of: 30/06/2022
Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst
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