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Shaping national intelligence now to solve complex problems in the future
- 1. NI+ sustainablefuture.info Shaping national intelligence nowto solve complex problems in the future
- 2. Why NASA? “We chooseto go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.” - JFK
- 3. Three Sights -Hindsight, Insight and Foresight Three P’s Probable future - Forecasting and sometimes prediction (Status Quo) Possible futures - Scenarios, risks (Explorative) Preferred futures - Strategies for change, propelled by innovation & leadership (Visionary) Four Steps Define - parameters, trends, drivers, assumptions Explore - uncertainties and rank Build - scenario worlds, write stories, test Use - consider implications, review, communicate Futures Studies – The Theory
- 4.
- 5. Hindsight Insight 97-90 = 7 7-3 = 4 4 - 2 = 2
- 6. 2008 In 2008, 3billion made $2 or less per day. Fifty years later, the developed countries & China grow old – while Africa & India remain young. I 60:40 40:60
- 7. Harvard Business School,Boston An exact replica of this room exists in Shanghai, even to the same timber!
- 8. Wild Card 2 Terrorism& War • Crime • War • Nuclear War Wild Card 3 Health & Safety • Antibiotic R. • Pandemic • Food • Water Wild Card 1 Technology • Info • Nano • Bio Given the - increase in population - climate change & - the existence of wildcards Val OrchardVal Orchard
- 9. Our generation can expecta life expectancy of 92 – 100 years of age. Our children, if we fail to manage their weight gain, will have 80 year old bodies in 50 year old skin.
- 10. Crime is nowglobal • $1 trillion pa Illicit Trade • 150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years • 20,000 active nuclear weapons
- 11. The first computerchip was invented in late 1950 Just over 50 years ago The first text message was sent in 1991 Just under 20 years ago The phone that now fits in your pocket, will fit inside the first blood cell
- 12. Man & Machine? Manis expected by some to create a machine with the equivalent of a human brain by 2029…
- 13.
- 14. Adapting to achanging environment Image from the Rising Currents exhibition at the Museum of Modern Art, New York, October 2010
- 15. Exponential Times Suppose awater lily is growing on a pond in your backyard. The lily plant doubles in size each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking out all other forms of life in the water. When it covers half the pond, how many days do you have left? ……
- 16. 100 Nobel laureateswarn our security hangs on environmental and social reform, 2001
- 17. How do wedevelop a new way of thinking? 1. Why is education a priority? 2. What should be the focus for education? 3. Who will solve the global problems? 4. When will solutions be found? 5. Where should changes occur within education? 6. How can we redesign education to face these challenges? ?
- 18. History does notrepeat, but it does rhyme John Dewey (1859-1952) • The School and Society – “without some goals and some effort to reach it, no man can live” Focus on whole person. Ellwood Cubberley (1868-1941) • Schools are factories – trained a generation of administrators in what was called the “science” of school management. Paternal. Focus on efficiency. Lewis Terman (1877-1956) • IQ test – at age of 5, Three R’s – reading, writing and arithmetic. Role of Teacher to memorize, manners and recite. Focus on measuring and testing.
- 19. Assumption 1: GlobalProblems = Global Solutions Assumption 2: Requires some form of global intelligence Assumption 3: GI = NI x 195 countries Assumption 4: NI = (EI x IQ x EQ x CI x TI x FI) population Then if our aim is to increase NZ’s NI, then NI+ = (EI x IQ x EQ x CI x TI x FI) 4,386,609
- 20. Who is Andrew Hoyer? 1)Attention to detail. This to me is one of the most important skills that anyone can acquire. Being able to finish a task is important, but being able to finish a task well is so much more important especially when having to work with other people. 2) Patience. Having the drive to tackle problems over and over again is essential in being able to complete real world problems. Without patience I would never get anything done. 3) Courage to learn. Being able to jump into the unknown and start learning is incredibly hard for some people and it definitely takes some time to get used to it. But once you get comfortable with the unknown your potential for learning and working is limitless.
- 21. ‘Rethinking the Old’– Lara
- 22. Xero was co-foundedin July 2006 by Hamish Edwards Don’t be afraid to fail Think really big Build a network Always present well Be honorable and have personal integrity Make decisions and be responsible for the results Be free with your time See the world Remember where you come from Get married and have kids…(but not for a while yet)
- 23. Technology wants tobe invented and we are almost powerless to stop it. We are hard-wired to create the future, be it good or bad. Invention is its own master - Chris Anderson, WIRED magazine
- 24. The Web isDead WIRED: Sources: Cisco estimates based on CAIDA publications, Andrew Odlyzko
- 25. Skills for theFuture Non-routine thinking Complex Communication 1. Critical thinking 2. Problem solving 3. Collaborative 4. Communicate 5. Innovate 6. Be globally aware 7. Be self directed 8. Technology literate -Ken Kay 1. Witnessing: Opening our eyes 2. Learning: Opening our minds 3. Connecting: Creating relationships 4. Geo-partnering: Working together - Gerzon
- 26. Emerging forms ofdemocracy
- 27.
- 28. OLD NEW Losing transparency Riskof losing the linkages that build up knowledge over time
- 29.
Editor's Notes
- #2 Educators understand evolution
- #3 Why do you think scientists and engineers were able to devise the atomic bomb in only four years and put man on the moon only eight years ? What factors were necessary for these accomplishemnets? This is the most famous bit of Kennedy’s speeches regarding reaching the moon: We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. The full text is here Retrieved November 2010 at http://www.historyplace.com/speeches/jfk-space.htm. Nixon’s phone call to Neil Armstrong on the moon can be found here http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon%27s_Phone_Call_to_the_Moon Kennedy’s initial speech announcing to congress the intention to go to the moon is here http://www.jfklibrary.org/Historical+Resources/Archives/Reference+Desk/Speeches/JFK/Urgent+National+Needs+Page+4.htm. The speech is fairly dry though and is really just asking congress whether they want to accept the big cost involved with the mission
- #4 Source (text): M. Marien, Future Survey #4, 2008
- #5 Hence the title four ‘possible’ futures Sir Edmund Hillary climbed Everest Timeline - like a accordion Uses climate change an GM to explore the landscape Source (figure): Sustainable Future (2009). Project 2058 Methodology version 3. Sustainable Future: Wellington. adapted from C. Ilbury & C. Sunter (2001). The Mind of a Fox: Scenario planning in action. Cape Town: Human and Rousseau Tafelberg.
- #6 Of the 97 billion who have lived 90 billion have died Of the 7 billion alive 3 billion currently live on $2 or less a day Of the 4 billion living on more than $2 2 billion are financially and physically dependent So we represent the 2 billion earning, alive and able to make a difference (2 billion divided into 97 – we are the 2%) Every generation needs to answer two questions: What is possible and what is acceptable? Its our watch to protect mankind – like in the Gettysburg address - that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion - 1865 The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us – that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion – that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth. President Abraham Lincoln
- #7 Its not just about numbers, its also about composition Notes: About 1.5 billion in 1900 Implications for food and water – long term global social conflict seems inevitable without serious food and water policies To summarise: the developed countries and China grow old – while Africa and India remains young. Source (text): J.C. Glenn, T. J. Gordon, & E. Florescu (2008). State of the Future 2008. Washington DC: World Federation of United Nations Associations (WFUNA). Source (images): Wendy McGuinness
- #8 See also Time Magazine, 18 October 2010 – The Real Challenge from China: Its People, Not its Currency. The article reports: China is moving up the value chain. For much of the past three decades, China focused its efforts on building up its physical infrastructure (not people). Now its entering a new phase of economic development – with the same determination it invested in infrastructure. In the last decade the number of colleges in China has doubled and the number of students have quadrupled, going from 1 million in 1997 to 5.5 million in 2007. China has identified its ivy league of nine top universities. Yale president said this expansion is without precedent! – “””The increase in China’s postsecondary enrollment since the turn of the millennium exceeds the total post secondary enrollment in the United States.””” What does this mean….. in the US, a high-school educated worker is 1.8 times productive as someone with a ninth grade education….. , and a college graduate 3 times more productive as someone with a ninth grade education…..some estimates think this will mean China has a GDP of around 123 trillion US by 2040. – by far the largest economy in the world. Harvard Center Shanghai Image taken by Wendy McGuinness at Harvard Business School, July 2010
- #10 State of the Future 2008: Change to Low mortality and low fertility – see pages 16 and 17- Over 25% of the world (excl Africa) will be over 60 years of age. In contrast, Africa will be more like 10% over 60 years of age 50 Years from today - One per person – page 5 So today, if you are 30 with a baby, in fifty years you may be 80 looking after the same baby. 92 in 2030 plus longer – World Futures Conference – Maddy Dychtwald and Fifty years from now – page 5 Fifty Years from Now – obesity – page 27
- #11 The total spent on the military world wide is about $1 trillion – page 4, State of the Future, 2008
- #12 (i) The first computer chip, otherwise known as a microprocessor, was invented by Ted Hoff while he was working for Intel. The chip was the size of a pencil eraser and was originally invented to be used in calculators instead of computers. Source: The Computer Chronicles: News Flash Read more: Who made the first computer chip? | Answerbag http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/1916830#ixzz159oB5JUM and http://www.enotes.com/history-fact-finder/science-invention/when-was-first-computer-chip-developed (2) YouTube Did You Know 4.0. Also Silicon Chips Embedded in Human Cells Could Detect Diseases EarlierRetrieved November from http://www.inhabitat.com/2010/03/18/silicon-chips-embedded-in-human-cells-could-detect-diseases-earlier/
- #13 Over 1 million industrial robots are working today
- #14 Radar Image, Wrapped Color as Height, Lanai and West Maui, Hawaii This topographic radar image shows Lanai (left) and western Maui (right). Data such as these will be useful for studying the history of volcanic activity on these now extinct volcanoes. SRTM data also will help local officials evaluate and mitigate natural hazards for islands throughout the Pacific. For example, improved elevation data will make it easier for communities to plan for tsunamis (tidal waves generated by earthquakes around the perimeter of the Pacific) by helping them identify evacuation routes and areas prone to flooding. This image combines two types of data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. The image brightness corresponds to the strength of the radar signal reflected from the ground, while colors show the elevation as measured by SRTM. Each cycle of colors (from pink through blue back to pink) represents an equal amount of elevation difference (400 meters or 1300 feet) similar to contour lines on a standard topographic map. This image contains about 1800 meters (5900 feet) of total relief. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), launched on February 11,2000, uses the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. The mission is designed to collect three-dimensional measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter-long (200-foot) mast, an additional C-band imaging antenna and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) and the German (DLR) and Italian (ASI) space agencies. It is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Earth Science Enterprise,Washington, DC. Size: 68 by 45 kilometers (42 by 28 miles) Location: 20.8 deg. North lat., 156.7 deg. West lon. Orientation: North toward upper left Original Data Resolution: 30 meters (99 feet) Date Acquired: February 18, 2000 Image: NASA/JPL/NIMA Image Credit: NASA/JPL Image Addition Date: 2000-02-19 Retrieved November 17, 2010 from: http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA02723
- #16 A traditional French riddle also illustrates the surprising nature of exponential growth: The water lily will cover half the pond on the 29th day, leaving you only 24 hours before it chokes out the life in your pond. See Lily example retrieved November 2010: http://www.pegasuscom.com/tstart2.html
- #17 So do I think there is and emergency…. The only hope for the future lies in co-operative international action, legitimized by democracy. To survive in the world we have transformed, we must learn to think in a new way. As never before, the future of each depends on the good of all. Published on Friday, December 7, 2001 On the 100th anniversary of the Nobel prize, Retrieved November 2010 fro0m http://www.commondreams.org/headlines01/1207-01.htm It is time to turn our backs on the unilateral search for security, in which we seek to shelter behind walls. Instead, we must persist in the quest for united action to counter both global warming and a weaponized world.These twin goals will constitute vital components of stability as we move toward the wider degree of social justice that alone gives hope of peace.Some of the needed legal instruments are already at hand, such as the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Convention on Climate Change, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. As concerned citizens, we urge all governments to commit to these goals that constitute steps on the way to replacement of war by law. Published on Friday, December 7, 2001 in the Toronto Globe & Mail
- #18 (i) GI defined: global intelligence is the human capabilities that enable us to co-exist and co-create with people different from ourselves (Mark Gerzon in Global Citizens (2010), Page 166.) – building bridges between us and them – page xxii (ii) Number of Countries as at Jun 14 2010, Retrieved November 2010 from http://geography.about.com/cs/countries/a/numbercountries.htm A very frequent geographical question is "How many countries are in the world?" Different numbers pop up when one inquires or reads about the number of countries in the world. Each source you use often yields a different answer. Ultimately, the best answer is that there are 195 countries in the world. United Nations: There are 192 members of the United Nations. Unfortunately, the number 192 is too often used to represent the number of countries in the world. Although this number represents almost all of the countries in the world, there are still two recognized independent countries, the Vatican City and Kosovo, that are independent and are not members of the U.N. so 192 is not the number of countries in the world. (iii) Population of New Zealand as at Saturday, 13 Nov 2010 at 02:43:34 pm was 4,386,609. Retrieved November 2010 from http://www.stats.govt.nz/tools_and_services/tools/population_clock.aspx (iv) Five W's and a H that should come *after* every story (A model for the 21st century newsroom: pt3). Retrieved November 2010 from http://onlinejournalismblog.com/2007/11/12/five-ws-and-a-h-that-should-come-after-every-story-a-model-for-the-21st-century-newsroom-pt3/ November 12, 2007 By Paul Bradshaw So far this model has looked at sourcing stories in the new media age, and reporting a news story in the new media age. In this third part I look at what should happen after a news story has been reported, using a familiar framework: the 5 Ws and a H – who, what, where, why, when and how. A web page – unlike a newspaper, magazine or broadcast – is never finished – or at least, can always be updated. Its permanence is central to its power, and relates directly to its connectivity (and therefore visibility). (v) Analog v Digital http: / Retrieved November 2010 from /www.techterms.com/definition/analog As humans, we perceive the world in analog. Everything we see and hear is a continuous transmission of information to our senses. This continuous stream is what defines analog data. Digital information, on the other hand, estimates analog data using only ones and zeros.For example, a turntable (or record player) is an analog device, while a CD player is digital. This is because a turntable reads bumps and grooves from a record as a continuous signal, while a CD player only reads a series of ones and zeros. Likewise, a VCR is an analog device, while a DVD player is digital. A VCR reads audio and video from a tape as a continuous stream of information, while a DVD player just reads ones and zeros from a disc.Since digital devices read only ones and zeros, they can only approximate an audio or video signal. This means analog data is actually more accurate than digital data. However, digital data can can be manipulated easier and preserved better than analog data. More importantly, computers can only handle digital data, which is why most information today is stored digitally. But if you want to transfer video from old analog video tapes into your computer so you can edit them, you're not out of luck. You can use a digital to analog converter (DAC) to convert the analog information into a digital signal that can be recognized by your computer.
- #19 See Cubberley and Dewey, Retrieved November 2010 from http://www.pbs.org/kcet/publicschool/innovators/index.html See Terman, Retrieved November 2010 from http://www.education.com/reference/article/terman-lewis-1877-1956 See YouTube: History of Education (1900-1950) Why should we care What evidence are we relying upon (or not)? Who needs to connect with who? When should this happen? Where should this happen? How can we make a difference? (EI or IQ)
- #20 EI = Emotional Intelligence EQ = Environmental CI = cultural TI = understanding of time, consequences FI = Family – interconnectedness
- #21 Email from I'd be happy to help you however I can, so feel free to use my site for anything. I'm currently 23 years old and am working as a software engineer in San Francisco. As far as some key skills/characteristics for younger people, I don't think I can come up with seven characteristics, but I definitely have three that I value very much. These are of course coming from a computer science/engineering perspective as its what I know best. 1) Attention to detail. This to me is one of the most important skills that anyone can acquire. Being able to finish a task is important, but being able to finish a task well is so much more important especially when having to work with other people. 2) Patience. Having the drive to tackle problems over and over again is essential in being able to complete real world problems. Without patience I would never get anything done. 3) Courage to learn. Being able to jump into the unknown and start learning is incredibly hard for some people and it definitely takes some time to get used to it. But once you get comfortable with the unknown your potential for learning and working is limitless.
- #23 Xero was founded in July 2006 by successful technology entrepreneur Rod Drury and specialist small business accountant Hamish Edwards. Xero is listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and is a fast growing company with offices in Wellington, Auckland, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and London. Retrieved November 2008 from http://www.xero.com/press/
- #24 See http://longtail.typepad.com/the_long_tail/ September 27, 2009 Chris Anderson
- #25 (i) Retrieved November 2010 from http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_webrip/all/1 “Two decades after its birth, the World Wide Web is in decline, as simpler, sleeker services — think apps — are less about the searching and more about the getting. Chris Anderson explains how this new paradigm reflects the inevitable course of capitalism. And Michael Wolff explains why the new breed of media titan is forsaking the Web for more promising (and profitable) pastures.” (ii) Retreved November 2010 from http://www.webopedia.com/DidYouKnow/Internet/2002/Web_vs_Internet.asp What is The Internet? The Internet is a massive network of networks, a networking infrastructure. It connects millions of computers together globally, forming a network in which any computer can communicate with any other computer as long as they are both connected to the Internet. Information that travels over the Internet does so via a variety of languages known as protocols. What is The Web (World Wide Web)? The World Wide Web, or simply Web, is a way of accessing information over the medium of the Internet. It is an information-sharing model that is built on top of the Internet. The Web uses the HTTP protocol, only one of the languages spoken over the Internet, to transmit data. (iii) Peer-to-peer is a communications model in which each party has the same capabilities and either party can initiate a communication session. Other models with which it might be contrasted include the client/server model and the master/slave model. Retrieved November 2010 from http://searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid7_gci212769,00.html (iii) Skype was founded in 2003 … In 2010, a report by TeleGeography Research stated that Skype-to-Skype calls accounted for 13% of all international call minutes in 2009. Retrieved November 2010 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skype (iV FTP is built on a client-server architecture and utilizes separate control and data connections between the client and server.[1] FTP users may authenticate themselves using a clear-text sign-in protocol but can connect anonymously if the server is configured to allow it. Retrieved November 2010 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File_Transfer_Protocol (v) The Domain Name System (DNS) is a hierarchical naming system built on a distributed database for computers, services, or any resource connected to the Internet or a private network. It associates various information with domain names assigned to each of the participating entities. Most importantly, it translates domain names meaningful to humans into the numerical identifiers associated with networking equipment for the purpose of locating and addressing these devices worldwide. Retrieved November 2010 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domain_Name_System (vi) Telnet is a network protocol used on the Internet or local area networks to provide a bidirectional interactive text-oriented communications facility using a virtual terminal connection. User data is interspersed in-band with Telnet control information in an 8-bit byte oriented data connection over the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP). Retrieved November 2010 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telnet (vii) Wired, Retrieved November 2010 from http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_webrip/all/1 Chris Anderson. “We’ll pay for convenience and reliability, which is why iTunes can sell songs for 99 cents despite the fact that they are out there, somewhere, in some form, for free. When you are young, you have more time than money, and LimeWire is worth the hassle. As you get older, you have more money than time. The iTunes toll is a small price to pay for the simplicity of just getting what you want. The more Facebook becomes part of your life, the more locked in you become. Artificial scarcity is the natural goal of the profit-seeking. The Internet is the real revolution, as important as electricity; what we do with it is still evolving. As it moved from your desktop to your pocket, the nature of the Net changed. The delirious chaos of the open Web was an adolescent phase subsidized by industrial giants groping their way in a new world. Now they’re doing what industrialists do best — finding choke points. And by the looks of it, we’re loving it.”
- #26 Ken Kay – President Partnership for the 21st Century Skills – see You Tube Teacher Education and the 21 Century Necessary skills are: Non-routine thinking and Complex Communication, then goes onto list the following seven. While we have made much progress in understanding economic growth in a world where ideas are important, there remain many open, interesting research questions: What is the shape of the idea production function – flat, lumpy, constant? How do ideas get produced? What is the long-run elasticity of output per worker with respect to population?. What are better institutions and policies for encouraging the efficient amount of research? Why has technology not created more disintermediation in education. The removal of an intermediary, or middleman, from a transaction or communication, such as seen with the success of TradeMe, Xero. Is the marriage of designers and digital technology experts a sustaining one. Is this the end of art as we know it. How do you lead change in education? Who asks what do children born today need in thirty years to make the ethical decisions in the future? Does the administration of schools require a separate institution than the institution needed to educate our children – culturally opposing but interconnected. Is Tomorrow's Schools Dead? (John Hattie’s recent paper) or are schools dead. What of Boys and Girls? Latest report. How do we stop being so politically correct but deal with ideas, issues and personalities Bring back competition It is ok to compromise on ideas, issues but not principles and values While we have made much progress in understanding economic growth in a world where ideas are important, there remain many open, interesting research questions: What is the shape of the idea production function? How do ideas get produced? What is the long-run elasticity of output per worker with respect to population?. What are better institutions and policies for encouraging the efficient amount of research? There is a large, suggestive literature on social rates of return to research and on the extent to which firms might under invest in research. Still, none of these individual studies is especially compelling, and more accurate estimates of these gaps would be valuable. To the extent that the returns to research do not reflect the marginal benefit to society, better institutions might improve allocations. Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1B. Edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved DOI: 10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01016-6 See: Retrieved November 2010 from http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~chad/JonesHandbook2005.pdf, page 1107 The economic intuition for these results is straightforward. Thousands and thousands of years ago, the population was relatively small and the productivity of the population at producing ideas was relatively low. Per capita consumption, then, stayed around the Malthusian level that kept population constant ( ¯y in the Lee model above). Suppose it took 1000 years for this population to discover a new idea. With the arrival of the new idea, per capita income and fertility rose, producing a larger population. Diminishing returns associated with a fixed supply of land drove consumption back to its subsistence level, but now the population was larger. Instead of requiring 1000 years to produce a new idea, this larger population produced a new idea sooner, say in 800 years. Continuing along this virtuous circle, growth gradually accelerated. Provided the economic environment is characterized by a sufficiently large degree of increasing returns (to offset the diminishing returns associated with limited land), the acceleration in population growth produces a scale effect that leads to the acceleration of per capita income growth. Eventually, the economy becomes sufficiently rich that a demographic transition sets in, leading population growth and per capita income growth to level out. Page 1098 The key fact that must be explained over this period is quite stunning and is displayed in Figure 3. For thousands and thousands of years prior to the Industrial Revolution, standards of living were relatively low. In particular, the evidence suggests that there was no sustained growth in per capita incomes before the Industrial Revolution.28 Then, quite suddenly from the standpoint of the sweep of world history, growth rates accelerated and standards of living began rising with increasing rapidity. At the world level, per capita income today is probably about 10 times higher than it was in the year 1800 or 1500 or even 10,000 years ago. A profound question in economic history – and one that growth economists have begun delving into – is this: How do we understand this entire time path? Why were standards of living relatively low and stagnant for so long, why have they risen so dramatically in the last 150 years, and what changed?29 There is a large, suggestive literature on social rates of return to research and on the extent to which firms might under invest in research. Still, none of these individual studies is especially compelling, and more accurate estimates of these gaps would be valuable. To the extent that the returns to research do not reflect the marginal benefit to society, better institutions might improve allocations.
- #27 Mark Gerzon – Global Citizen – page 13 World-wide view based on one-self World-wide view based on ones group World view based on ones nation World-wide view based on ones culture World-wide view based on the whole earth
- #28 One single global mega-colony Ants = Equal to biomass of humans Ants from European, Californian and Japan rub antennae with one another and never became aggressive or try to avoid one another. In short, they act as if they all belong to the same colony, despite living on different continents separated by vast oceans. http://www.pnas.org/content/97/26/14028.full http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8127000/8127519.stm A single mega-colony of ants has colonised much of the world, scientists have discovered. Argentine ants living in vast numbers across Europe, the US and Japan belong to the same inter-related colony, and will refuse to fight one another. The colony may be the largest of its type ever known for any insect species, and could rival humans in the scale of its world domination. What's more, people are unwittingly helping the mega-colony stick together. Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) were once native to South America. But people have unintentionally introduced the ants to all continents except Antarctica. These introduced Argentine ants are renowned for forming large colonies, and for becoming a significant pest, attacking native animals and crops. In Europe, one vast colony of Argentine ants is thought to stretch for 6,000km (3,700 miles) along the Mediterranean coast, while another in the US, known as the "Californian large", extends over 900km (560 miles) along the coast of California. A third huge colony exists on the west coast of Japan. The enormous extent of this population is paralleled only by human society Entomologists reveal the ant colony's true size While ants are usually highly territorial, those living within each super-colony are tolerant of one another, even if they live tens or hundreds of kilometres apart. Each super-colony, however, was thought to be quite distinct. But it now appears that billions of Argentine ants around the world all actually belong to one single global mega-colony. Researchers in Japan and Spain led by Eiriki Sunamura of the University of Tokyo found that Argentine ants living in Europe, Japan and California shared a strikingly similar chemical profile of hydrocarbons on their cuticles. But further experiments revealed the true extent of the insects' global ambition. The team selected wild ants from the main European super-colony, from another smaller one called the Catalonian super-colony which lives on the Iberian coast, the Californian super-colony and from the super-colony in west Japan, as well as another in Kobe, Japan. They then matched up the ants in a series of one-on-one tests to see how aggressive individuals from different colonies would be to one another. Ants from the smaller super-colonies were always aggressive to one another. So ants from the west coast of Japan fought their rivals from Kobe, while ants from the European super-colony didn't get on with those from the Iberian colony. One big family But whenever ants from the main European and Californian super-colonies and those from the largest colony in Japan came into contact, they acted as if they were old friends. These ants rubbed antennae with one another and never became aggressive or tried to avoid one another. In short, they acted as if they all belonged to the same colony, despite living on different continents separated by vast oceans. The most plausible explanation is that ants from these three super-colonies are indeed family, and are all genetically related, say the researchers. When they come into contact, they recognise each other by the chemical composition of their cuticles. "The enormous extent of this population is paralleled only by human society," the researchers write in the journal Insect Sociaux, in which they report their findings. However, the irony is that it is us who likely created the ant mega-colony by initially transporting the insects around the world, and by continually introducing ants from the three continents to each other, ensuring the mega-colony continues to mingle. "Humans created this great non-aggressive ant population," the researchers write. I have been trying to think of the earth as a kind of organism, but it is no go. I cannot think of it this way. It is too big, too complex, with too many working parts lacking visible connections. The other night, driving through a hilly, wooded part of southern New England, I wondered about this. If not like an organism, what is it like, what is it most like? Then, satisfactorily for that moment, it came to me: it is most like a single cell. – Lewis Thomas http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Thomas
- #30 Statistics: 60% of year 3 doctors are female, guys cant focus