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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6
Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Wednesday, 18 February 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
DHBK 57.60 56.60
QIMD 49.10 47.80
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,553.69 -0.4 5.8
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 12,600 12,800 12,900
Support 12,350 12,250 100222
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
The QSE Index made a Double Top price
formation. This formation is bearish in
nature. This negative sentiment is
supported by the technical indicators used
and the previously created several Doji
candlesticks on the daily chart. Our
analysis reiterates the drop we expected
earlier and thus, may reach the previously
projected 12,350 level.
Expected Resistance Level: 12,800
Expected Support Level: 12,350
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 17 Feb 15 16 Feb 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 628.1 437.0 43.7
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 678.9 683.1 -0.6
Volume (mn) 14.5 9.7 49.5
Number of Trans. 6,268 4,988 25.7
Companies Traded 40 40 0.0
Market Breadth 11:26 13:23 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,842.68 -0.4 60.0
All Share Index 3,250.34 -0.4 61.9
Banks 3,265.94 -0.1 57.7
Industrials 4,022.52 -0.3 57.1
Transportation 2,468.22 0.0 69.7
Real Estate 2,532.93 -1.1 62.8
Insurance 4,084.80 0.2 69.2
Telecoms 1,418.47 -1.5 51.4
Consumer 7,493.96 -0.3 68.7
Al Rayan Islamic 4,397.03 -0.6 64.2
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
MCGS 146.00 -1.4 77.1
AHCS 18.60 -0.5 74.1
QATI 93.70 0.0 73.9
QIIK 88.10 0.6 72.1
QGTS 25.10 0.4 71.8
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6
DHBK
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 57.60 -0.35 295,000
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 59.00 60.00 61.80
Support 56.60 55.60 54.20
Commentary
Overview:
The bank created a Double Top price
pattern. It is a reversal formation which
has been confirmed with last session’s
closing price. Technical indicators also
confirm the bearish pattern; the MACD
crossed its signal line and the RSI
reached the neutral area. The 100SMA
and 200SMA are both above the last price
indicating bearishness. However, the
50SMA is below it and can act as a
support. Our analysis indicates that the
drop may reach QR56.60 once the
condition is met.
Expected Price Retreat: QR56.60 –
QR55.50
It is better to wait for a break below the
QR57.60 to sell the name.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6
QIMD
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 49.10 -2.77 11,182
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 50.00 50.70 52.50
Support 49.10 47.80 46.30
Commentary
Overview:
QIMD buyers may have reached a
saturated buying stage and a correction
could take place soon. The price action
created a Bearish Harami candlestick (this
happens when the body of the previous
candlestick is inside the body of the
candle before). On the daily chart, the
MACD lost ground and the RSI tried to
push above the overbought zone but
could not maintain the level. As such, it
started to drop.
Expected Price Retreat: QR47.80 –
QR46.30
The correction could take place once the
price breaks below QR49.10.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6
Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,553.69 12,486.00 12,522.32 12,544.77 12,581.10 12,617.42 12,639.87 12,676.20 12,124.73 12,834.39 12,986.06
Total Return 18,842.68 18,741.09 18,795.61 18,829.29 18,883.82 18,938.34 18,972.02 19,026.55 18,110.04 19,155.43 19,374.43
All Share 3,250.34 3,234.31 3,242.82 3,248.08 3,256.58 3,265.09 3,270.35 3,278.85 3,111.35 3,270.39 3,298.58
Al Rayan Islamic 4,397.03 4,367.05 4,383.93 4,394.37 4,411.25 4,428.13 4,438.57 4,455.45 4,106.69 4,334.77 4,377.84
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 48.90 48.10 48.33 48.47 48.70 48.93 49.07 49.30 45.45 48.50 51.14
CBQK 69.40 67.47 68.04 68.39 68.97 69.54 69.89 70.47 67.68 70.12 69.20
DHBK 57.60 57.27 57.42 57.51 57.67 57.82 57.91 58.07 56.57 57.68 59.20
QIBK 104.20 102.33 103.40 104.06 105.13 106.20 106.86 107.93 103.06 106.86 104.75
QIIK 88.10 86.83 87.37 87.70 88.23 88.77 89.10 89.63 80.82 83.66 84.63
Insurance
QATI 93.70 88.63 90.31 91.35 93.03 94.71 95.75 97.43 86.12 91.45 88.60
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 146.00 140.67 142.58 143.76 145.67 147.58 148.76 150.67 121.86 124.84 113.31
Industrials
IQCD 153.20 152.33 152.79 153.07 153.53 153.99 154.27 154.73 160.56 175.54 179.10
QEWS 200.00 198.67 199.24 199.59 200.17 200.74 201.09 201.67 189.35 189.01 187.65
GISS 102.00 99.33 100.48 101.19 102.33 103.48 104.19 105.33 97.04 107.87 106.63
QIGD 41.10 40.23 40.73 41.04 41.53 42.03 42.34 42.83 39.54 45.05 52.62
Real Estate
BRES 48.50 47.73 47.98 48.14 48.38 48.63 48.79 49.03 43.96 44.26 42.33
UDCD 24.20 23.88 23.99 24.06 24.17 24.28 24.35 24.46 23.88 25.58 26.28
ERES 17.06 16.73 16.91 17.02 17.19 17.37 17.48 17.65 15.22 17.17 19.99
MRDS 20.12 19.45 19.79 20.00 20.34 20.68 20.89 21.23 19.43 21.35 20.92
Telecommunication
ORDS 115.00 114.20 114.58 114.82 115.20 115.58 115.82 116.20 116.23 120.48 128.43
VFQS 17.22 16.51 16.89 17.12 17.51 17.89 18.12 18.51 15.96 17.87 18.78
Transportation
QGTS 25.10 24.80 24.90 24.95 25.05 25.15 25.20 25.30 23.22 23.65 23.75
QNNS 103.50 101.50 102.34 102.86 103.70 104.54 105.06 105.90 97.88 98.14 96.29
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,
promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We
therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy
and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or
contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the
views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included
in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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18 February Daily technical trader

  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader – Qatar Wednesday, 18 February 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target DHBK 57.60 56.60 QIMD 49.10 47.80 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,553.69 -0.4 5.8 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,600 12,800 12,900 Support 12,350 12,250 100222 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The QSE Index made a Double Top price formation. This formation is bearish in nature. This negative sentiment is supported by the technical indicators used and the previously created several Doji candlesticks on the daily chart. Our analysis reiterates the drop we expected earlier and thus, may reach the previously projected 12,350 level. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,350 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 17 Feb 15 16 Feb 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 628.1 437.0 43.7 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 678.9 683.1 -0.6 Volume (mn) 14.5 9.7 49.5 Number of Trans. 6,268 4,988 25.7 Companies Traded 40 40 0.0 Market Breadth 11:26 13:23 – QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,842.68 -0.4 60.0 All Share Index 3,250.34 -0.4 61.9 Banks 3,265.94 -0.1 57.7 Industrials 4,022.52 -0.3 57.1 Transportation 2,468.22 0.0 69.7 Real Estate 2,532.93 -1.1 62.8 Insurance 4,084.80 0.2 69.2 Telecoms 1,418.47 -1.5 51.4 Consumer 7,493.96 -0.3 68.7 Al Rayan Islamic 4,397.03 -0.6 64.2 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI MCGS 146.00 -1.4 77.1 AHCS 18.60 -0.5 74.1 QATI 93.70 0.0 73.9 QIIK 88.10 0.6 72.1 QGTS 25.10 0.4 71.8 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 DHBK Price % Ch. Volume Last 57.60 -0.35 295,000 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 59.00 60.00 61.80 Support 56.60 55.60 54.20 Commentary Overview: The bank created a Double Top price pattern. It is a reversal formation which has been confirmed with last session’s closing price. Technical indicators also confirm the bearish pattern; the MACD crossed its signal line and the RSI reached the neutral area. The 100SMA and 200SMA are both above the last price indicating bearishness. However, the 50SMA is below it and can act as a support. Our analysis indicates that the drop may reach QR56.60 once the condition is met. Expected Price Retreat: QR56.60 – QR55.50 It is better to wait for a break below the QR57.60 to sell the name. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 QIMD Price % Ch. Volume Last 49.10 -2.77 11,182 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 50.00 50.70 52.50 Support 49.10 47.80 46.30 Commentary Overview: QIMD buyers may have reached a saturated buying stage and a correction could take place soon. The price action created a Bearish Harami candlestick (this happens when the body of the previous candlestick is inside the body of the candle before). On the daily chart, the MACD lost ground and the RSI tried to push above the overbought zone but could not maintain the level. As such, it started to drop. Expected Price Retreat: QR47.80 – QR46.30 The correction could take place once the price breaks below QR49.10. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 12,553.69 12,486.00 12,522.32 12,544.77 12,581.10 12,617.42 12,639.87 12,676.20 12,124.73 12,834.39 12,986.06 Total Return 18,842.68 18,741.09 18,795.61 18,829.29 18,883.82 18,938.34 18,972.02 19,026.55 18,110.04 19,155.43 19,374.43 All Share 3,250.34 3,234.31 3,242.82 3,248.08 3,256.58 3,265.09 3,270.35 3,278.85 3,111.35 3,270.39 3,298.58 Al Rayan Islamic 4,397.03 4,367.05 4,383.93 4,394.37 4,411.25 4,428.13 4,438.57 4,455.45 4,106.69 4,334.77 4,377.84 Banks & Financials Services MARK 48.90 48.10 48.33 48.47 48.70 48.93 49.07 49.30 45.45 48.50 51.14 CBQK 69.40 67.47 68.04 68.39 68.97 69.54 69.89 70.47 67.68 70.12 69.20 DHBK 57.60 57.27 57.42 57.51 57.67 57.82 57.91 58.07 56.57 57.68 59.20 QIBK 104.20 102.33 103.40 104.06 105.13 106.20 106.86 107.93 103.06 106.86 104.75 QIIK 88.10 86.83 87.37 87.70 88.23 88.77 89.10 89.63 80.82 83.66 84.63 Insurance QATI 93.70 88.63 90.31 91.35 93.03 94.71 95.75 97.43 86.12 91.45 88.60 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 146.00 140.67 142.58 143.76 145.67 147.58 148.76 150.67 121.86 124.84 113.31 Industrials IQCD 153.20 152.33 152.79 153.07 153.53 153.99 154.27 154.73 160.56 175.54 179.10 QEWS 200.00 198.67 199.24 199.59 200.17 200.74 201.09 201.67 189.35 189.01 187.65 GISS 102.00 99.33 100.48 101.19 102.33 103.48 104.19 105.33 97.04 107.87 106.63 QIGD 41.10 40.23 40.73 41.04 41.53 42.03 42.34 42.83 39.54 45.05 52.62 Real Estate BRES 48.50 47.73 47.98 48.14 48.38 48.63 48.79 49.03 43.96 44.26 42.33 UDCD 24.20 23.88 23.99 24.06 24.17 24.28 24.35 24.46 23.88 25.58 26.28 ERES 17.06 16.73 16.91 17.02 17.19 17.37 17.48 17.65 15.22 17.17 19.99 MRDS 20.12 19.45 19.79 20.00 20.34 20.68 20.89 21.23 19.43 21.35 20.92 Telecommunication ORDS 115.00 114.20 114.58 114.82 115.20 115.58 115.82 116.20 116.23 120.48 128.43 VFQS 17.22 16.51 16.89 17.12 17.51 17.89 18.12 18.51 15.96 17.87 18.78 Transportation QGTS 25.10 24.80 24.90 24.95 25.05 25.15 25.20 25.30 23.22 23.65 23.75 QNNS 103.50 101.50 102.34 102.86 103.70 104.54 105.06 105.90 97.88 98.14 96.29 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  • 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  • 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.