This document is a chartbook titled "Gold Bull & Debt Bear in 50 Charts" published by Incrementum AG. It contains 50 charts analyzing trends in gold, debt, currencies, inflation and other economic indicators. The charts show that government and private debt levels have risen dramatically compared to GDP. Central banks have also greatly expanded their balance sheets through quantitative easing programs. Many currencies have lost purchasing power against gold over the long run. The analysis presented in the charts supports the view that gold is in a bull market and government debt levels pose risks to economies and financial systems.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
Evolucion del sistema financiero venezolanoculofeo
Evolución de las finanzas desde la época de la colonia, revolución industrial, y todas las etapas de la economía venezolana, las etapas de las finanzas.
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Nanoparticle Tracking Analysis (particle by particle technique)Anson Ho
NanoSight visualizes, measures and characterizes virtually all nanoparticles. Pls contact A&P Instrument Co.Ltd in Hong Kong for detail. Email: anson@anp.com.hk
Established in 1949, head-office at Denmark
Product puzzle toy
Fifth- largest toy- maker in the global in 2009
Long-term contract with Flextronic
Sold in more than 130 countries
Reduce the cost and find a new strategy to overcome the largest internal financial of company.
Development and distribution product would be sorted out.
Upgrade procurement process
Trimming product complexity (standardization)
Improve profitability
Strengthen its competitive edge in the competitive toy market
Switch from a traditional family model to partnership model
That the ineffective and inflexible supply chain was the key problem for the creation of a sound business platform
Their decision to outsource comes on the back of an in-depth analysis of the company’s total supply chain
A special view to cost structure considerations and geographic proximity to the major markets
Effective coordination too complex for LEGO Group
Sharing necessary product knowledge in a consistent and timely manner took too long and not executed reliably between two firms
It is difficult to find profitable business model for two firms
Foro Alumni "Encendiendo los Motores del Crecimiento Mundial" realizado el 29 de abril en el Hotel El Pueblo.
Expositor Piero Ghezzi (egresado UP Managing Director and Head of Global Economics and Emerging Markets Research Barclays Capital)
This is a lecture on capitalism, entrepreneurship, and international finance. The seminal ideas came from Dick Smick who is privy to many events and upheavals in intl finance. He had a book on "The World is Curved" He describes in broad stroke the role of entrepreneurship in international finance , and how finance shapes entrepreneurship
This new year is starting, it's the year of change for PPPs. Compliments are strengthened, but the procedures are simplified. Faced with the ever-increasing number of scams, mainly caused by all internet scammers, PPPs have started to have a bad reputation. To offer greater transparency and 100% security, we offer in our trade programs the possibility of using a:
INTERACTIVE BROKAGE ACCOUNT
It is simply a trade account, owned and managed by the customer. At no time does he lose his money from sight ... everything is explained in the attached guide.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
2. Disclaimer
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED AND NO
REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE
PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY,COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS INFORMATION OR
OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN.
CERTAIN STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE STATEMENTS OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS AND
OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE BASED ON MANAGEMENT’S CURRENT VIEWS AND
ASSUMPTIONS AND INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL
RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR EVENTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IN SUCH
STATEMENTS.
NONE OF INCREMENTUM AG OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY
LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY
USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENT OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT.
THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY
SHARES AND NEITHER IT NOR ANY PART OF IT SHALLFORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION
WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER.
www.incrementum.li
12. Relative Scarcity: Gold‘s Supply Curve vs. M2 Growth
Maximum, Minimum and Average Rate of Change From 1868 To 2011
Sources: GoldMoney Foundation, "the aboveground Gold Stock: Ist Importance and Ist Size", James Turk, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
13. Relative Scarcity: Gold‘s Supply Curve vs. M2
Average Rate of Change: Gold & M2 in Different Time Periods
Sources: GoldMoney Foundation, "the aboveground Gold Stock: Ist Importance and Ist Size", James Turk, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
14. Gold vs. 200 Day Moving Average and Deviation
From 200 Day Moving Average
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
15. Gold is “Cheap” vs. FIAT-Money (M0 and MZM)
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
16. No Overvaluation Compared to Stock Market Indices!
Gold vs. MSCI USA & MSCI World (Total Return)
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
17. Dow/Gold Ratio since 1900
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
18. Gold, Silver & Commodities During Deflation
Sources: Roy Jastram, “The Golden Constant”, “Silver, the Restless Metal”, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
19. Real Interest Rates vs. Gold Price since 1971
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
20. Change in Inflation Rate vs. Change in Gold Price:
Gold Does Not Correlate With Inflation Rates, But With the Change in
Inflation Rates
Quelle: Fed St. Louis, Erste Group, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
21. Annual Return versus Annual Volatility since 1971
Sources: Bloomberg, Ferdinand Regner, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
22. Crowded Trade?
Gold‘s Share of Total Financial Assets Currently at a Mere 0.5%
Sources: World Gold Council, Credit Suisse, World Federation of Exchanges, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
23. Daily Trading Volume in Billion USD:
Gold Is One of The Most Liquid Currencies
Sources: World Gold Council, Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
24. Average Daily Turnover as % of Total
Outstanding*
*Daily turnover is calculated as daily average volume divided by total outstanding value. In the case of gold, total
outstanding is calculated using private and public bullion holdings.
Sources: German finance agency, Japanese MOF, SIFMA, Thomson Reuters GFMS, UK DMO, WGC
www.incrementum.li
25. Gold in USD & EUR Since 1968 (Logarithmic Scale)
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
26. Gold Price in USD and EUR Since 1999
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
27. Good Outlook for Beer-Drinking Gold Bugs:
Gold/Oktoberfest Beer Ratio
Sources: www.HaaseEwert.de, Historical archive Spaten-Löwenbräu, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
29. Total Credit Market Debt Owed, GDP & Monetary
Base
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
30. Change in Central Bank Balance Sheets + Gold
Price Increase: January 2002 vs. August 2013
Sources: Central Bank Information, Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
31. Stocks are Cheap? Not really…
S&P: Shiller PE since 1881
Sources: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm, Prof. Robert Shiller, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
32. Consumer Prices in the US Over the Past Century
(CPI indexed)
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
33. Barely Any Price Deflation Since 1913 and
Especially Since 1971
Quelle: Fed Prof. Robert Sahr - Measuringworth
www.incrementum.li
34. Purchasing Power of the US Dollar Measured in Gold and Oil
Terms vs. Purchasing Power of Gold in Oil Terms (log. scale)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
35. The Coefficient of Coincidence
Sources: Grant Williams, Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
36. The Coefficient of Coincidence
Sources: Grant Williams, Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
37. Real Interest Rates post Bretton Woods
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
38. US Budget: Surpluses and Deficits
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
39. Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding
(billion USD)
Sources: Treasurydirect.gov, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
40. Debt held by Public (% of GDP):
Two Scenarios by the Government Accountability Office (GAO)
Source: GAO, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
41. Grand Total Credit and Debt per Capita (USD)*
• As of April 2012
Source: www.nowandfutures.com
www.incrementum.li
43. Domestic vs. Foreign Debt (% of GDP)
Source: The Economist, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
44. No Bang for the Buck:
Increase in Real GDP per Dollar of Incremental Debt
Sources: Ned Davis Research, Federal Reserve, Gary Shilling
www.incrementum.li
46. Currency Basket* Measured in Terms of Gold:
Long Term Downtrend Intact
* The basket consists of US-Dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Renminbi, Indiean Rupee, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar
Sources: Fed St. Louis, Erste Group, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
47. Combined Balance Sheet Fed+ECB (USD bn)
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
48. Development of the Monetary Base since 1999
(indexed to 100)
Sources: Central Bank Websites, Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
49. Development of the Monetary Base since 1999
(USD bn.)
Sources: Central Bank Websites, Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
50. Purchasing Power in Various Currencies – How Much Gold
Does One Unit of Currency Buy? (log. Scale, indexed to 100)
Sources: Datastream, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
51. Adjusted Monetary Base yoy Change
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
53. Housing Bubble in China?
Ratio of House Prices to Annual Income
Sources: Global Financial Stability Report: The Quest for Lasting Stability, IMF, April 2012
www.incrementum.li
54. Cantillon Effect* Applied:
Fed‘s „Wealth Effect“ only for the Richest
* The Cantillon effect describes the fact that newly created money is neither distributed evenly nor simultaneously in the population. That means that users of money
partly profit from rising prices, and partly suffer from them. This results in a transfer of wealth, resp. a hidden tax, from later receivers to earlier receivers of new money.
Source: Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
55. A Bull Market in Bureaucracy:
Pages of US Tax Law & Pages of US Legislation
Sources: Incrementum AG
www.incrementum.li
58. About Incrementum AG
1 Incrementum AG is an owner-managed asset manager & wealth manager based in the Principality of
Liechtenstein. Our business focus is the management of investment funds that we believe to be unique.
1 We evaluate all our investments not only in perspective of the global economy but in context of the current
state of the global monetary regime. This enables us to gather what we consider a truly holistic view of
the state of financial markets. A deep understanding of monetary history, out of the box thinking and
prudent research enables our clients to prosper in this difficult market environment.
1 We believe our investment team offers a distinct skillset which has proven to be extremely valuable for us
as investors in these uncertain markets. Among our partners are experts within the fields of:
1 Asset Allocation
1 Fundamental Bottom Up Research
1 Precious Metals
1 Our boutique approach allows us to combine unconventional thinking with state of the art asset
management wisdom. Our independence empowers us to communicate unbiased and our flexibility
enables us to respond to evolving markets rapidly.
1 Our intention is to deliver a selected range of investment funds, which we believe are able to grow
incrementally also during times of increasing economic challenges.
59. About Incrementum AG
1 Incrementum AG Liechtenstein is an asset management company founded in 2013 in Vaduz, Liechtenstein. As
independence is a cornerstone of our philosophy, the company is one hundred percent owned by its partners.
There are no affiliations to any banking institutions, which enables us to implement our investment strategies
autonomously. As a boutique with lean hierarchies, we are able to execute our strategies swiftly and respond to
regime changes flexibly. Our partners practice what they preach. Therefore we are invested in each of the funds
we manage.
1 The partners of Incrementum AG are highly qualified and have over 140 years of combined banking
experience. Prior to joining the company the partners held positions within UBS, Dresdner Bank, Lombard Odier,
Darier Hentsch & Cie., Cantrade Private Bank, PBS Private Bank, Bank Leu, Pictet & Cie., Bank Sal. Oppenheim,
Merrill Lynch, Raiffeisen Capital Management, Erste Group and Société Générale.
60. Our ‘Austrian‘ View
‘An economic school of thought that originated in Vienna during the late 19th century with the works of Carl Menger. The
Austrian school is set apart by its belief that the workings of the broad economy are the sum of smaller individual decisions
and actions, which are based on laws that can be deduced by rational logical methods, unlike the Chicago school and other
theories that look to surmise the future from historical abstracts, often using broad statistical aggregates.’
Investopedia on the Austrian School of Economics
Central view points of the Austrian School of Economics:
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Money is not neutral
Inflation is the increase in the supply of money and credit
Inflation is a harmful policy and causes a transfer of wealth (Cantillon Effect)
Private ownership and property rights are essential
Economics is all about individuals (subjectivism, methodological individualism)
Actions have consequences – good and bad
Bailout policies lead to moral hazards
Prices signal scarcity and abundance and are essential for allocating resources efficiently
Erroneous price signals set by central banks are the cause of boom and bust cycles
Lowering interest rates leads to distortions in the economy by altering relative prices, which results in an
artificial boom. Eventually, misallocations and malinvestment can no longer be supported and a ‘bust’
ensues in which these misallocations are worked out
A return to sound money is necessary and advocated
61. The Relevance of the Austrian School for us at
Incrementum
1
The majority of Western nations have amassed unsustainable debt levels. Politicians now are faced with the choice of rigid austerity
measures, massive tax hikes, national bankruptcy, or extensive financial repression.
1
By a process of elimination we can quickly find the supposed magic formula, given that the political implications of rigid austerity measures
and drastic tax hikes are largely unpopular and squarely at odds with the goal of getting re-elected. On top of that, drastic austerity measures
tend to result in social upheaval. According to Bridgewater the frequency of protests and social unrest increases sharply as soon as annual
public spending is cut by more than 3% of GDP.
1
Therefore, we believe that financial repression will continue to crop up in many shapes and sizes over the coming years. However, the longterm costs of the lack in efforts made towards consolidating national finances are substantial. While low bond yields in the short run suggest
that the saving measures are on course, one has to bear in mind that this has mainly been achieved by market interventions.
1
The crucial question of whether price inflation or deflation will be the determining environment in the coming years remains
unanswered. The fear of deflation as manifested, for example, in numerous essays and speeches by Ben Bernanke (e.g. ‘Deflation: Making
Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here’) argues very much in favour of further interventions in increasing magnitude. The natural shakeout during a
deflationary recession will probably be avoided at all costs and even more aggressive monetary expansion programmes will be
launched.
1
Most of the global financial savings are currently invested in sovereign debt instruments. With yields at record lows and debt at record highs
evidence is increasing, that this could be the largest bubble in financial history. We believe that a significant revaluation of assets is
looming and a great transfer of wealth will be the consequence.
1
We will gladly alter our stance as soon as signs of sounder financial and monetary policies can be discerned. As a boutique with lean
hierarchies, we are able to execute our strategies swiftly and respond to regime changes flexibly.
1
We sincerely believe that the Austrian School of Economics provides us with the
appropriate intellectual foundation especially during this demanding financial and economic environment.
‘The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it.’
Pericles