Wright Report Q3-4_2015

July - December, 2015
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 1 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
Perspective and Overview of the Residential Housing Market:
The United States, State of California, and Northern CA Region.
July to December, 2015
TTHHEE WWRRIIGGHHTT RREEPPOORRTT

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The Wright Report
Prepared by:
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Prepared By: Joel Wright
Document Version: Final
Last Updated On: April, 2016

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................................................................................... 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:.................................................................................................................... 4
THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN:.................................................................................................................. 5
Sacramento Appraiser: Ryan Lundquist ................................................................................. 5
Rental Housing Association: Jim Lofgren................................................................................ 7
Exchange Servicer: Bill Angove............................................................................................... 8
Real Estate Attorney: Stephen Beede .................................................................................... 9
NATIONAL MARKET TRENDS: ........................................................................................................ 11
New Home Sales:.................................................................................................................. 13
Macro Economic Trends:...................................................................................................... 15
Distressed Sales:................................................................................................................... 17
Lending, Banking & Interest Rates: ...................................................................................... 18
CALIFORNIA STATISTICS:................................................................................................................ 21
REGIONAL STAPSHOTS: Northern California 16 Counties............................................................. 24
Northern Bay Area Counties – Marin, Sonoma, Napa.......................................................... 26
Southern Bay Area Counties – San Francisco, San Mateo & Santa Clara............................. 29
Eastern Bay Area Counties – Contra Costa, Alameda & Solano........................................... 32
Sacramento Valley Counties – Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado & Yolo ................................ 35
Central Valley Counties – San Joaquin, Stanislaus, & Merced ............................................. 38
RESOURCES:................................................................................................................................... 42

Wright Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Residential markets appear pointed in the right direction for continued
growth during 2016. Following a year of relatively stable GDP and job
growth, low interest rates, increasing new and existing home sales,
lower inventory and price increases, the housing market in 2016
seems set to expand.
During the last half of 2015 many markets in Northern California and
the U.S. saw flat or declining sales prices, but when compared year
over year with 2014 they all showed strong increases. 2016 will likely
continue these same trends.
The Sacramento Metro Area median sales price remained stable
through the end of 2015 even as inventory shrank and the number of
sales remained about normal. As the new year took hold we are
seeing price increases due to inventory shortage, and increased
activity from Bay Area residents looking for less expensive property
not too far from home.
Another important shift is the infusion of foreign capital into our local
real estate markets. Across the U.S. huge amounts of cash from
foreign investors seeking stability are being pumped into residential
and commercial properties. The properties are bought as long term
holds. While this trend is likely to continue and it supports housing
demand, it also increases prices and lowers CAP rates for buyers
across the board.
Not everything is rosy as the FED doesn’t feel the economy is strong
enough to raise rates, the Stock Market experiences tremors, foreign
economies continue to be in economic trouble, Global Oil prices were
in freefall, and conflicts abroad remain unresolved. Nevertheless the
core economic situation in the U.S. seems to be in pretty good shape.

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THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN:
Sacramento Appraiser: Ryan Lundquist
Modest Value Increases, but Aggressive Demand
If I had to sum up the market last year I would say values were
modest, but demand was aggressive. In other words, the market felt
like it was increasing rapidly because of how much competition there
was to get into contract, but actual value increases were deemed fairly
minimal overall. The median price increased by roughly 7% as did
average sales price and average price per sq ft. Housing inventory was
low all year long, sales volume was up by 11%, cash investors didn’t
drive the market like they did in years past, FHA buyers gained a
greater share of the market, the Fall in 2015 was far less dull than the
previous year, and distressed sales were hardly a factor.
On paper it looks like buyers should be buying everything in sight
because of how low inventory has been, but overpriced listings and
properties with adverse location and/or condition issues are tending to
sit rather than sell. This reminds us the mood of the market has
shifted from say early 2013 where buyers were desperately trying to
get into contract on anything they could.
One last aspect worth mentioning is rents have been increasing in
many areas in Sacramento, which is a double-edged sword in that it is
good for investors, though it puts pressure on would-be buyers to
afford the market since more of their income is going to rent rather
than savings. Crucial trends to watch for in 2016 are the direction of
interest rates, the economy, and housing inventory.

Wright Report
Ryan Lundquist is a Certified Real Estate Appraiser in the Greater Sacramento
Area. He also specializes in reducing property taxes. Check out his informative
Blog at www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com or contact him directly at (916)
595-3735.

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Rental Housing Association: Jim Lofgren
Northern California Rental Housing Update
Rent control proposals continue to spread in Bay Area cities where
rents have increased by double-digit figures for several years. Since
the Sacramento region has experienced similar increases, it probably
is a matter of time before tenant activists push for rent controls in this
area. The shortage of rental housing inventory is the primary culprit
for the Sacramento region ranking in the top 10 regions nationwide for
rent increases over the past several quarters. New development of
housing is needed, but the projects in the pipeline fall far short of the
need. So, the tenant activists may try to push for rent control even
though most elected officials are on record opposing it.
One new issue facing landlords is the U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development (HUD) recently issued new guidelines regarding
use of criminal backgrounds checks by rental property owners and
managers. Since a disproportionate percentage of adults with a
criminal history are African Americans and Hispanics, HUD warned that
denying rental housing based on criminal history background checks
may be discriminatory and violate the Fair Housing Act. Although HUD
did not prohibit the use, the burden of proof falls on the rental
property owner or manager to prove that the use of such reports and
the denial of certain applicants does not have a discriminatory effect.
Attorneys are working with their rental property clients to determine
whether they should continue the use of criminal history reports in
screening tenants and, if so, how to minimize the risk of a
discrimination lawsuit.
Jim Lofgren has been the Executive Director of the Rental Housing Association
(RHA) for 18+ years. RHA is a non-profit trade association representing owners
and managers of more than 80,000 units. For more information contact the RHA
at (916) 920-1120 or http://www.rha.org/.

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Exchange Servicer: Bill Angove
Changes in the Northern California 1031 Exchange Market
The number of 1031 exchanges increased some 20% from 2014 to
2015. With very low inventory in both residential and commercial
properties, exchangers are having to make offers earlier to lock up
their replacement property(s) or face the risk of not meeting the 45
day identification period.
Most exchanges in the Sacramento area are being done on residential
properties. We are seeing the average price on properties being sold,
and exchanged out of, increased significantly in Northern California,
with the Bay Area accounting for a majority of the price increase. The
same is happening in the commercial property market. There are
fewer commercial sales so far in 2015, but based up our phone activity
in early April, I expect the number of commercial 1031 exchanges to
grow significantly in the next quarter.
Bill Angove is a Vice President with 18 years at Asset Preservation, Inc. a national
Qualified Intermediary assisting investors defer gains at sale using 1031
exchanges. For information see http://apiexchange.com/ or call him directly at
(916) 791-5991.

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Real Estate Attorney: Stephen Beede
Continued Worries for Upside Down Owners
Well we certainly are in a time of concern in the real estate market
with low inventory, short sale times, and more demanding loan
requirements. Lost in all this have been the fates of the thousands of
people who remain upside down on their properties. While they
received lots of attention when REO’s and Short Sales was 70% of the
market, today at 7% it’s a very different story:
Loan Modifications – In general lenders have no desire to modify
existing loans and cannot be compelled to do so. Even where debtors
appear fully qualified for a Mod, most requests are denied under the
Net Present Value test. Under NVP, if the lender/investor thinks they’d
be better off forcing the sale or foreclosure, then they deny the Mod. If
nothing else, this cleans a bad loan off the bank’s balance sheet which
is a focus for most banks today.
Foreclosures – Although not as noticeable as in years past,
foreclosures are still occurring at strong numbers as lenders again are
cleaning their books of bad loans. These typically indicate a failure to
achieve a short sale often as a result of junior lender’s refusal to
cooperate. Most lenders do not want a Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure and
those are generally non-existent in multi-loan situations.
Short Sales – These remain the path of choice for most but not all
upside down owners. Since enactment of Civil Code 580e in July
2011, lenders cannot require sellers to contribute any money nor is
there any recourse following short sale. But for lenders, the process
will be faster, less expensive, and yield more sale proceeds than a
foreclosure. The most impacted owners today appear to be people
that obtained an interest-only loan back in 2005-6. After 10 years,
many of these are now resetting to fully amortized and adjustable
interest. So now they may find themselves with equity in their home

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but no ability to refinance and insufficient income to pay the higher
debt costs. The result is Short Sale or sometimes foreclosure.
Equity Sales Act – In dealing with a Seller with equity but in default,
agents and buyers must be aware of the California Home Equity Sales
Contract Act. In any such real estate transaction, the Buyer must give
the Seller a 5 day Right of Cancellation. Transferring title before
expiration of the Cancellation period could expose the Buyer to
penalties of up to 3 times the equity plus attorney fees and costs. The
unaware Buyer might then go after their agent.
Stephen Beede is a prominent local attorney with very wide experience with
residential real estate that he brings to his law practice. He can be reached at
(916) 966-2260 and online at www.bpelaw.com. He also keeps an excellent blog
at www.stevebeede.com.

www.WrightRealEstate.us
Wright Report
NATIONAL MARKET TRENDS
National Real Estate Market
The U.S. median sold price in December 2015 hit $22
an increase of 7.2% from the $208,200 in December 2014
5.5% from the market high
The average sold price for a single family home in December 2015
reached $266,400, a decline from June’s $280,200, but an increase of
4.4% from December 2014
In 2015 the sale of single family homes (SFR
reached 5.25 million sales. That is up
2014; and also more than the
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/02/02/raw
2015/
July - December
Page 11
TRENDS:
Real Estate Market
The U.S. median sold price in December 2015 hit $223,200. That is
from the $208,200 in December 2014, but down
% from the market high of $236,300 in June 2015.
4.4% from December 2014 which was at $255,300.
In 2015 the sale of single family homes (SFR – homes and condos)
million sales. That is up 6.4% from 4.94 million sold in
; and also more than the 5.07 million sold in 2013.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/02/02/raw-count-of-home-sales
December, 2015
(916) 726-8308
00. That is
, but down
homes and condos)
% from 4.94 million sold in
sales-december-

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Purchasers buying for investment purposes
sales, down from 17% in 2014
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/02/01/sales
purposes-15-percent-of-resident
U.S. inventory in December 2015, a total of 1.7 Million homes,
declined to 4.4 months of units available for sale, down from 5 months
of inventory in December 2014.
February 2015, the rest of t
inventory each month.
The National Home Ownership Rate
While it is down from the high of 69.2 in Q4
with the long term historical trends
Homes are taking longer to sell, but it is mostly due to the new Federal
guidelines (TRID – TILA
requiring additional time at
approve the lending costs for their loan. While
to streamline the process
escrow time by an average of 10 days
July - December
Page 12
Purchasers buying for investment purposes accounted for 14
, down from 17% in 2014.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/02/01/sales-for-investment
residential-sales-in-december-2015/
of inventory in December 2014. With the exception of January and
February 2015, the rest of the year has been less than 5 months of
The National Home Ownership Rate in Q4-2015 ending at 63.
While it is down from the high of 69.2 in Q4-2006 it is more in line
with the long term historical trends prior to 2000.
king longer to sell, but it is mostly due to the new Federal
ILA RESPA Integrated Disclosures) that are
requiring additional time at the end of escrow for buyers to be able to
approve the lending costs for their loan. While one of the objectives is
to streamline the process, the result is that it actually extended the
escrow time by an average of 10 days at the end of 2015. In fact, as
December, 2015
(916) 726-8308
4% of
investment-
January and
he year has been less than 5 months of
15 ending at 63.8%.
in line
king longer to sell, but it is mostly due to the new Federal
) that are
of escrow for buyers to be able to
one of the objectives is
it actually extended the
In fact, as

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lenders and escrow companies applied the new rules the number of
sales that closed in Nove
into December.
All cash purchases accounted for 24% of all sales in December 2015;
down from 26% in 2014.
New Home Sales:
SFR New Home sales in 2015 reached
435,000 homes sold in 2
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/02/02/raw
december-2015/
July - December
Page 13
sales that closed in November declined as many sales were bumped
down from 26% in 2014.
SFR New Home sales in 2015 reached 501,000 surpassing the total
in 2014.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/02/02/raw-count-of-home
December, 2015
(916) 726-8308
bumped
the total of
home-sales-

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Median sold price is down
in Q4-2015, however, the
3.8% from 2014 to 2015
also declined from $380,200 to $358,400 in Q4
annual sales price increased
$355,500.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/01/27/latest
december-2015/
The average size of new homes increased in 2015 from 2,660, in
2014, to 2,720 square feet. There is currently 5.1 months on
inventory in December 2015, up from 4.8 months in January.
Lack of skilled labor is still the primary concern of the industry,
followed by cost of buildable lots, and
regulations. Lending for construction projects is also a concern for
developers as construction loans are still marginalized by many banks
July - December
Page 14
Median sold price is down 3% from $302,300 in Q4-2014 to $2
, however, the average median price for the year increased
3.8% from 2014 to 2015. The average sold price for on new homes
from $380,200 to $358,400 in Q4-14 to Q4-15, but
increased slightly by 1.8% from 2014 to 2015
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/01/27/latest-new-home
of new homes increased in 2015 from 2,660, in
is still the primary concern of the industry,
buildable lots, and federal environmental
as construction loans are still marginalized by many banks
December, 2015
(916) 726-8308
2014 to $293,200
average median price for the year increased
on new homes
15, but the
from 2014 to 2015 to
home-sales-
of new homes increased in 2015 from 2,660, in
is still the primary concern of the industry,
ederal environmental
as construction loans are still marginalized by many banks.

Wright Report
Macro Economic Trends:
GDP growth in 2015 is estimated at 2.2% overall with Q3 and Q4
declining from Q2. It is not as strong as many would like to see, but it
is not negative.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/29/news/economy/us-economy-gdp-fourth-quarter/
Job growth has also been strong through the 2015 with job gains of
2.5 Million for the year.
As the job situation improves and Main Street becomes more confident
in their employment prospects for the foreseeable future, buyers are
beginning to purchase more. We have already seen this in the number
of homes sold in 2015, and while the number of resales are back over
5 million units sold, new home sales are still very depressed.
Millennials are beginning to find employment, form families and move
out of their parent’s home, and when they do they want to purchase a
place to live. However, due to the great recession, a struggling
National Economy and slow job recovery and growth, mixed with
increased migration and population growth and a large student debt
load they continue to remain behind the curve with household
formation and home purchases.

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The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 5% in December 2015, a
decrease from 5.6% in December 2014. In California the
unemployment rate declined to 5.9% in December from 7.1% a year
earlier.
Even though unemployment continues to decline, the labor force
participation rate (the % of the population actually working) has also
dropped slightly year over year. In December 2015 it was 63.8, up
slightly from 62.6% in June, and down slightly from 64% in December
2014.
Labor Force Participation Rate
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
The volatility of the Stock Market will likely benefit residential real
estate because some investors will be motivated to diversify into
assets like real estate which are seen as being more stable. The
perception, however, is that the real estate market is high, even
though many areas are still affordable locally and across the country.
International factors will also play into the performance of the national
economy and affect the housing markets. China’s fiscal considerations
will definitely affect the U.S. economic policy and housing, as well as
continued unrest in Syria and Ukraine.

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Oil prices remain low after a historical decline and with lower prices at
the pump comes money into the wallets of the consumer, but surveys
show they are paying down debt and saving, not buying new products.
Distressed Sales:
Distressed sales have drastically reduced since 2011. In 2015 they
only account for 6.1% of sales nationally.
While REOs have decreased substantially, they represent about 1.1%
of all homes with mortgages (433,000). Those that are seriously late,
90 days or more, represent another 3.2% of the mortgage pool, or 1.2
million units. There is another 450,000 mortgages that are between
60 and 90 days late.
At the end of 2015 the five states with the highest foreclosure rates
are Florida, Michigan, Texas, Ohio and Georgia.
Even as the markets are improving, bulk sales of properties continue
to occur, though now it is less the REO properties being sold in bulk
and more the nonperforming mortgages behind the homes. HUD over
the last 5 years has sold some 17 Billion in distressed mortgages to
Wall Street and Hedge Funds.
Some cities have complained that they are not being allowed to
purchase the nonperforming loan batches near them. I think it is
more likely that they do not have the infrastructure to properly
address the issues that arise with such a purchase. Not only will it be
difficult to raise the capital to purchase such a large number of
property loans, but also creating the structures to administer the loans
once purchased requires a great deal of specialized skill not typically
found in municipalities and non profits. But maybe will additional
public attention one or more of these financially hard hit cities could
put together the resources needed to purchase some loan packages.

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Lending, Banking & Interest Rates:
The Federal Reserve in December 2015 raised by .25% the FED funds
rate, the rate at which banks and other institutions borrow money
from the Federal Reserve. It is the first increase in rates in 9 years
and the results were striking… no movement in mortgage rates at all.
Perhaps the banks were already prepared for the hike in the loan
pricing, or maybe they did not want to scare their consumers and
absorbed the increase. Either way rates do not appear to have moved
at all for consumers getting a loan to buy a home.
With interest rates hovering around 4% for 30 year fixed conventional
financing, they are still near all time lows. The average rate in
December 2015 was 3.96% and that is not much higher than the 3.86
in December of 2014. In fact, only July averaged over 4% interest
rate through all of 2015.
The irony is that in June 2013 Ben Bernache, as head of the FED,
mentioned that at some point the purchase of bonds would have to
end and the mortgage rate jumped 1 point in a matter of days.

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At this point it remains to be seen if they will continue the intended
path of raising rates quarterly this year, or if they will hold off longer
due to economic considerations at the macro level. As mutterings are
heard that it may be a recession on the horizon, I am sure they will
think well about their decision.
An increase in mortgage interest rates will definitely affect the
residential markets… but its affect on the market could be positive or
negative. On the negative side it could contribute to buyer hesitancy
where there is a degree of expectation that interest rates will remain
low because they will wait for it to return to a lower rate so they can
purchase with a lower monthly payment. This would slow down the
number of buyers making offers and reduce the number of sales. On
the positive side, a higher rate might motivate buyers to get off the
fence and purchase before the rates move yet higher. Or it could have
both results and they could cancel each other out.
In early 2016 the stock market experienced some volatility. Some say
correction, others recession, and still others remain bullish. What is
likely to happen if the stock market continues to be volatile, is that it
will motivate some portion of its participants to transfer money to real
property which will support the volume and price of the residential and
commercial markets.
As we get farther from the end of the recession banks continue to
loosen slightly the restrictions on mortgages created to be sold to
Fannie & Freddie. There still remains a strong desire in the U.S.
Congress to be rid of the two lending giants, Freddie & Fannie. For
now they are generating positive revenues in the Billions of dollars
each year, and it is difficult to kill something that is paying back its
federally funded debt. Also, there does not seem to be a good solution
to replace them or any place to shift the burden of funding the vast
majority of loans in the country.
Yet even as income is up and foreclosures are down, not all banks are
out of the woods yet. Morgan Stanley just got hit with a 3.2 Billion
dollar bill for their part in the MBS situation that precipitated the

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recession. They are not the only bank that has participated in
reparations… Chase’s bill was 13 Billion, Bank of America’s 16.65
Billion, and Citi’s was 7 Billion; and Goldman Sachs and Deutsch bank
are up next.
Another lending issue coming due in 2016 is the reassessment of
HELOCs. Interest Only HELOCs, Equity second loans, are recasting
and a large number of them will be coming due this year, 10 years
after their origination in 2006. Some homeowners have kept their
property and have been paying their interest, but many will have to
begin paying their principle also which will jump many loans up a
significant amount. Unlike past issues with first loans it is likely that
the banks will take this in stride, having already been willing to do
workouts on first and knowing that the seconds on many homes will
likely be worth less than they would if they work out and probably not
worth the time and cost of going through a foreclosure. It is probably
that the banks will work out something with many of these unfortunate
seconds, though workouts on first loans with equity are becoming
increasingly uncommon.

Wright Report
CALIFORNIA STATISTICS:
In California the median sold price hit $489,310 in December, up 8.1%
from Dec. 2014 ($452,570). That median price is up 99.5% from the
2009 bottom of $245,230. The current median price is also only
17.7% below the 2006 high of $594,530.
New construction is still floundering however, with limited construction
occurring and a distinct lack of supply coming forward. It is estimated
that there is a 165,000 shortfall currently, of what should be build.
This is not just a CA issue, but across the US as well. Some of it is
due to a general sentiment of existing home owners that do not want
new construction. It is also due to high fees and red tape that make
costs more expensive, and progress through development slow.

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The recovery in California is generally split throughout the state.
There are counties with strong job growth and where the median sold
price is well above the high point of the previous cycle. Others have
experienced moderate job growth and price gains, while some have
shown slow job growth and with sales prices that have not grown
substantially since the last market low point.
California has experienced strong job growth through the year, in fact
it grew at 2.9% in 2015 and was one of the national leaders in new
jobs creation.
Unemployment went down to 5.9% in CA and we are back to where it
was in November 2007, but not quite back to pre-recession
unemployment numbers of less than 5.5%.
The average Affordability, the percent of people in California who can
afford to purchase the median priced home with 20% down payment,
is 30% in Q4-2015. That is down 1 point from Q4-2014.

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Affordability in the Bay Area is well known to be low, and prices
continue to rise as rents have also spiked. There are many concerns
generally with the growing unaffordability of housing prices.
The least affordable County is San Francisco with 11% affordability,
followed by San Mateo with 14% and Marin at 17%. The most
affordable are King County at 61%, Merced at 55%, and Tulare at
54% affordability.
The ability of buyers to be able to pay for their mortgage is a major
indicator as to the health of the market and the transition through
market cycles. In fact, over 40% of renters polled cite lack of
affordability as the primary reason they don’t purchase a home.
Distressed sales continue to decline in 2015. In December 2014 the
number of equity sales in CA was at 90.1%. December 2015, it
reached 93.6% of all sales. Short sales saw the greatest reduction
from 4.9% in Dec. 2014 to 2.8% in Dec. 2015. REOs declined from
4.6% to 3.3% over the same period.
December 2015 distressed sales totaled only 6.4% of all sales; that is
a massive reduction from January 2009 where Short Sales and REO’s
accounted for 69.1% of the total.
First time home buyers make up about 30% of all buyers, and all cash
buyers are about 21% of the 2015 sales.
Another consideration in the CA real estate market is the large number
of foreign buyers purchase residential property. As much of the rest of
the world continues to experience difficult financial situation it appears
they are purchasing property in CA as a hedge against what may
happen in their own economies or to preserve cash in stable
investments. It seems this is particularly likely of Chinese buyers, as
the Chinese markets continue to experience shocks and changes.

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REGIONAL STAPSHOTS: Northern California 16 Counties
Through the 9 Bay Area Counties and the 7 Counties in the Valley we
see a consistent set of trends. Generally it is growth resonating along
the coast and Southern Bay Area which declines as it moves inland to
the Sacramento Region and down the Central Valley.
San Francisco and Santa Clara (San Jose) make up the 2 epicenters,
surrounded by 2 supporting Counties – Marin and San Mateo. Real
Estate prices in these 4 Counties begin on the low side in Santa Clara
at $922,000 (December 2015) and increase with the other 3 Counties
to top $1,000,000 median sales price. The percent of distressed sales
in these 4 Counties is 3% or less, unemployment is under 4%, and
affordability is below 20%.
As it expands outward to Alameda, Contra Costa, Napa and Sonoma
Counties the median sold prices drops to between $500,000 and
$750,000. The number of distressed sales rises to between 3-5% of
all sales, unemployment is between 4.2% and 5.2%, and affordability
increase to 21-26% except for 37% for Contra Costa County where the
income is relatively high compared to sales prices.
Extending into Solano County and the Sacramento Valley, prices begin
to decline to the $300,000s with Sacramento at the low end
($297,600) and El Dorado County at the high end ($409,800).
Distressed sales range between 3-8%, unemployment increases to
between 5.3-6.5% (except Placer County at 4.6%), and affordability is
from 44-46%.
The Central Valley trails the rest with prices in the $200,000s,
distressed sales between 8-9%, unemployment from 8.7-11.8%, and
affordability between 38-55%.
San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Contra Costa & Alameda
Counties are also seeing selling prices higher than the listed price and
for the rest of the Counties, except Merced, the selling price is within
2% of asking price.

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All counties have seen growth in population between 2010 and 2015,
as well as Per Capita Income between 2010 and 2013. All saw an
increase in the median sales price, and most saw an increase in the
number of sales from Q4-14 to Q4-15.

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Northern Bay Area Counties – Marin, Sonoma, Napa
Market Trends:
The three Counties on the North end of the San Francisco Bay Area
have experienced solid growth over the last several years. Population
has increased 3.3% in Marin County from 2010 to 2015 and 3.6% and
4.1% in Sonoma and Napa respectively. Unemployment continues to
decline and is less than the state average of 5.9%. Per Capita Income
for each County (as of 2013) has been on the rise since 2009 in
Sonoma and 2010 in Marin and Napa Counties.
County
Trends
Per Capita
Income 2013
2015
Population
Estimate
Unemployment
Rate
Marin $97,124 261,221 3.2%
Sonoma $50,312 502,146 4.2%
Napa $56,634 142,456 5.1%
Real Estate Trends:
From 2014 to 2015 prices of Single Family Homes (SFR) have risen
substantially. All 3 Counties have a median sales price higher than the
state average, and Marin and Napa have increased more than 10%
over the last year, and Marin County topped the One Million Dollar
median sales price.
Median
Sales Price
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2015
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
Marin $1,120,690 $990,130 13.2%
Sonoma $563,320 $519,470 8.4%
Napa $628,120 $516,670 21.6%
The Number of Sales increased in Sonoma and Napa Q4-15 compared
to Q4-14, and decreased slightly in Marin.

Wright Report
# of Homes
Sold
# Sold Q4-
2015
# Sold Q4-
2014
Yr/Yr
%
Change
Marin 521 529 -1.5%
Sonoma 1197 1130 5.9%
Napa 280 271 3.3%
In Q4-15, properties sold just below list price in Marin County at
99.1% of the price listed for sale on the MLS. In Sonoma County the
median sold price was the same as the median list price, and in Napa
County sold price was 98.2% of list price.
The number of Days on Market (DOM) declined in all 3 Counties
between Q4-14 and Q4-15. Marin declined 17% to 55 days in Q4-15
from 66 in Q4-14. Napa’s average DOM declined least with 4.5% to
85 from 89 days. Sonoma dropped 11% to 65 days from 73 days.
Distressed Sales, properties owned by the Bank (REOs) and Short
Sales, continue to remain low with each of the Counties placing well
under the state average of 6.4% of total sales.
Distressed Sales
December 2015
Bank Owned
(REO)
Short Sales
Distressed -
Total Sales
Marin 1% 1% 2%
Sonoma 3% 2% 5%
Napa 2% 2% 4%
Affordability, the percentage of families in the County that can afford
the median priced home, went up in Marin and down in Sonoma and
Napa Counties. In Q4-15 Marin reached 17% affordability, up from
15% in Q4-14. This is due to the increase in the median family
income for the County. Sonoma hit 26%, down from 29%, and Napa
21% down from 24%. In CA the affordability in Q4-15 was 30%.

Wright Report
Market Cycles:
Marin County reached the high point in the last cycle during June 2007
at $1,149,390. The low price point was hit in February 2011 at
$632,580. Since then the median sold price increased 73% to
December 2015 at $1,120,690. It is currently 2.5% below the
previous high. Over the last 6 months the price has fluctuated but
ended the year lower than the $1,163,460 in June 2015.
Sonoma County reached the high point of the last cycle in January
2006 at $650,326. The lowest point was in February 2009 at a price
of $312,338. Since then it has increased 80% to $563,320, where it is
currently 13% below the previous high. Since June ($573,640) the
price declined until November and then bounced back up in December.
Napa County reached the high point in the last cycle during August
2006 at $729,166. The lowest point was in April 2011 at a price of
$306,820. Since then it increased 105% to $628,120, where it is
currently 14% below the previous high. Over the last 6 months the
price has declined from June’s price at $641,670.

Wright Report
Southern Bay Area Counties – San Francisco, San Mateo &
Santa Clara
Market Trends:
The three Counties South of the Golden Gate Bridge have also seen a
dramatic increase over the last several years. Population, from 2010
to 2015, has grown 6.3% in San Mateo County and 7.3% in San
Francisco and Santa Clara. Unemployment ranges between 3.3% to
3.8%, more than 2 points below the state average of 5.9% and Per
Capita Income for all 3 Counties has increased between 18-21% from
2010 and 2013.
County
Trends
Per Capita
Income
2013
2015
Population
Estimate
Unemployment
Rate
San Francisco $70,190 864,816 3.3%
San Mateo $67,964 765,135 3.0%
Santa Clara $58,018 1,918,044 3.8%
Real Estate Trends:
From 2014 to 2015 prices of Single Family Homes have risen and all 3
Counties have a median sales price higher than the state average.
San Francisco and San Mateo both increased more than 20% year,
over the year with a median sales price reaching over One Million
Dollars.
Median
Sales Price
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2015
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
San Francisco $1,215,620 $935,480 29.9%
San Mateo $1,194,000 $980,000 21.8%
Santa Clara $920,000 $846,500 8.7%

Wright Report
The Number of Sales increased in San Mateo and Santa Clara from Q4-
14 to Q4-15, and decreased slightly in San Francisco.
# of Homes
Sold
# Sold Q4-
2015
# Sold Q4-
2014
Yr/Yr
%
Change
San Francisco 636 675 -5.8%
San Mateo 950 882 7.7%
Santa Clara 2229 2159 3.2%
In Q4-15 properties in San Francisco County sold well above asking
price with the average sale being at 119% of list price. In San Mateo
County the median sold price was 106% of the median list price, and
in Santa Clara County the sold price was 104% of list.
The number of Days on Market (DOM) declined in San Francisco and
Santa Clara. San Francisco declined 12% to 29 days in Q4-15 from 33
in Q4-14. Santa Clara’s average DOM declined 5.7% to 33 from 35
days the year before, San Mateo stayed the same at 30 DOM.
Distressed Sales continue to remain low with each of the Counties with
the highest being San Francisco at 3%.
Distressed Sales
December 2015
Bank Owned
(REO)
Short Sales
Distressed -
Total Sales
San Francisco 2% 1% 3%
San Mateo 1% 1% 2%
Santa Clara 1% 1% 2%
Affordability stayed the same in San Francisco and went down in San
Mateo and Santa Clara Counties. From Q4-14 to Q4-15 San Francisco
remained at a very low 11% affordability. San Mateo hit 14% down
from 15%, and Santa Clara reached 20%, down from 22%; all much
lower than the CA average of 30%.

Wright Report
Market Cycles:
San Francisco County reached the high point of the last market cycle
in May 2007 at $932,352. The lowest point was January 2012 at
$561,270. Since the low the median sold price has increased 117% to
$1,215,620 in December 2015. It is currently 30% above the previous
high. Over the last 6 months the price has fluctuated and ended the
year lower than the $1,339,290 median sold price in June 2015.
San Mateo County reached the high point in October 2007 at
$1,020,000, then declined until January 2009 at $551,000. Since then
it has increased 137% to $1,194,000, where it is currently 17% higher
than the previous high. Since June ($1,300,000) the price has slowly
declined to December.
Santa Clara County reached the high point of the last cycle in April
2007 at $856,000. The lowest point was in February 2009 at a price
of $445,000. Since then it has increased 106% to $920,000, where it
is currently 6% above the previous high. Over the last 6 months the
price has bumped downward from June’s price of $990,000.

Wright Report
Eastern Bay Area Counties – Contra Costa, Alameda & Solano
Market Trends:
The three Counties on the East side of the Bay have grown also, but
not as much as their coastal neighbors. All 3 Counties have
experienced population growth from 2010 to 2015 with Contra Costa
increasing 7%, Alameda 8% and Solano trailing at 5%.
Unemployment is better than the California average at 5.6% for
Solano and 4.3% and 4.5% for Alameda and Contra Costa. Per Capita
Income also rose 12 - 15% in each of the Counties from 2010 to 2013.
County
Trends
Per Capita
Income
2013
2015
Population
Estimate
Unemployment
Rate
Contra Costa $55,465 1,126,745 4.5%
Alameda $48,087 1,638,215 4.3%
Solano $37,935 436,092 5.6%
Real Estate Trends:
From 2014 to 2015 prices of Single Family Homes have seen solid
increases. Contra Costa County shows a loss because of the ways
median price numbers are reported, but when comparing the median
price from Q4-14 to Q4-15 it experienced an 8% gain in median price.
Contra Costa and Alameda, the 2 Counties closest the Bay, have sales
prices higher than the state average and Solano County, even with a
10% gain in price, is lower than the state’s median sold price.
Median
Sales Price
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2015
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
Contra Costa $507,177 $704,440 -28.0%
Alameda $738,790 $693,180 6.6%
Solano $356,640 $324,070 10.1%
The Number of Sales increased in all 3 Counties from Q4-14 to Q4-15.

Wright Report
# of Homes
Sold
# Sold Q4-
2015
# Sold Q4-
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
Contra Costa 2655 2498 6.3%
Alameda 2605 2522 3.3%
Solano 1203 1057 13.8%
In Q4-15 properties sold in Contra Costa County at 102% of list price.
In Alameda County the median sold price was 104%, and Solano
County sold price was 100% of list price.
The number of Days on Market (DOM) declined in all 3 counties
between Q4-14 and Q4-15. Contra Costa declined 6% to 30 days from
32. Solano’s average DOM declined 5% to 56 from 59 days. Alameda
dropped 11% to 24 days from 27 DOM.
Distressed Sales are lower than CA average, led by Alameda County
with only 3% of sales being REOs or Short Sales.
Distressed Sales
December 2015
Bank Owned
(REO)
Short Sales
Distressed -
Total Sales
Contra Costa 3% 2% 5%
Alameda 2% 1% 3%
Solano 4% 2% 6%
Affordability went up in Alameda County, rising from 20% to 22% from
Q4-14 to Q4-15. In Q4-15 Contra Costa reached 37% affordability,
down from 40% in Q4-14, and Solano hit 45% down from 50%, both
higher than CA’s average affordability rate of 30%.
Market Cycles:
Contra Costa County reached the high point in the last cycle during
June 2006 at $923,155. The lowest point was in January 2012 at
$476,470. The median price reached $839,910 before the geographic
area being tracked was changed. This adjustment showed a median

Wright Report
price change of some $260,000 to $572,420 in July 2015. From that
point it fluctuated up and down ending the year lower at $507,177.
Alameda County reached the high point of the last cycle in May 2007
at $722,044. The low point was in January 2009 at a price of
$346,236. Since then it increased 113% to $738,790, where it is
currently 2.3% above the previous high. Since June ($814,480) the
median price dropped to October and then came up to December.
Solano County reached the high point in June 2006 at $492,799 and
the lowest point was in February 2012 at a median price of $179,020.
Since then it increased 99% to $356,640, where it is currently 28%
below the previous high. Over the last 6 months the price has stayed
pretty much the same from the June ($359,930).

Wright Report
Sacramento Valley Counties – Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado
& Yolo
Market Trends:
North East of the Bay Area is the Sacramento Valley, home to the
Sacramento Metro Area and the nexus of 4 Counties. The recovery
since 2009 has been solid and the population has increased in all 4
Counties. The slowest growth occurred in El Dorado County with 1.8%
increase since 2010, but the rest grew between 5.6% and 7.2% over
the 5 years. Unemployment is lower than the state average, except in
Yolo county which is higher, at 6.5%. Per Capita Income has grown in
each County from 2010 and 2013 between 15% and 19%.
County
Trends
Per Capita
Income 2013
2015
Population
Estimate
Unemployment
Rate
Sacramento $37,700 1,501,335 5.5%
Placer $47,012 375,391 4.6%
El Dorado $48,222 184,452 5.3%
Yolo $36,505 213,016 6.5%
Real Estate Trends:
From 2014 to 2015 prices of Single Family Homes have risen but all 4
Counties have a median sales price lower than the state average of
$489,310. Sacramento saw the highest increase with 10% year over
year growth.
Median
Sales Price
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2015
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
Sacramento $297,600 $269,350 10.5%
Placer $391,960 $387,500 1.2%
El Dorado $409,800 $385,230 6.4%
Yolo $361,220 $344,590 4.8%

Wright Report
The Number of Sales declined in El Dorado County from Q4-14 to Q4-
15, but rose substantially in Sacramento and Yolo Counties.
# of Homes
Sold
# Sold Q4-
2015
# Sold Q4-
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
Sacramento 4300 3795 13.3%
Placer 1390 1327 4.7%
El Dorado 558 564 -1.1%
Yolo 404 349 15.8%
In Q4-15, properties sold in Sacramento County at 98.5% of list price.
In Placer and Yolo the median sold price was 98.8% of list price, and
in El Dorado County sold price was the same as list price.
The number of Days on Market (DOM) declined in all 4 counties
between Q4-14 and Q4-15. Sacramento declined 13% to 34 days
from 39. El Dorado’s average DOM declined least with 3.3% to 58
from 60 days. Placer dropped 10% to 43 days from 48 days, and Yolo
dropped to 37 days from 43 DOM.
Distressed Sales continue to be sold in both Sacramento and El Dorado
Counties at 8%; higher than the state average of 6.4% of total sales.
Distressed Sales
December 2015
Bank Owned
(REO)
Short Sales
Distressed -
Total Sales
Sacramento 4% 4% 8%
Placer 2% 1% 3%
El Dorado 5% 3% 8%
Yolo 3% 1% 4%
Affordability went down in Sacramento and Placer Counties. In Q4-15
Sacramento reached 46% affordability, down from 49% in Q4-14.
Placer hit 44% down from 45%. Both remain substantially higher than
the CA average.

Wright Report
Market Cycles:
Sacramento County reached the high point of the last cycle in August
2005 at $394,450. The lowest point was January 2012 at $161,080.
Since then the median sold price has increased 85% to December at
$297,600. It is currently 25% below the previous cycle high. Over
the last 6 months the price dipped to September then rallied to
December higher than the median price in June of $295,310.
Placer County reached the high point of the last cycle in August 2005
at $527,995. The lowest point was in February 2012 at a price of
$251,450. Since then it increased 56% to $391,960 where it is
currently 26% below the previous high. Since June ($402,870) the
price has declined only slightly.
El Dorado County’s median sales price is only tracked by CAR back to
2009, so we don’t have the previous cycle high point, however, the

Wright Report
low point was September 2011 at $238,750. Since then it has
increased 72% to $409,800. Over the last 6 months the price has
fluctuated, ending the year close to June’s sold price of $410,320.
Yolo County’s records at CAR also begin in 2009 with no previous cycle
high point either. The lowest point was in October 2011 at the price of
$107,500. Since then it has increased 111% to $226,560. Over the
last 6 months the price has gone up and down, but ending the year
very close to June’s sold price of $226,320.
Central Valley Counties – San Joaquin, Stanislaus, & Merced
Market Trends:
The Central Valley is located just South of the Sacramento Valley.
Population increased 5.6% in San Joaquin County from 2010 to 2015
and 3.6% and 4.5% in Stanislaus and Merced Counties.
Unemployment remains higher than the state average at close to 10%.
Per Capita Income, however, increased 13% in San Joaquin and
Stanislaus Counties and 17% in Merced from 2010 to 2013.
County
Trends
Per Capita
Income 2013
2015
Population
Estimate
Unemployment
Rate
San Joaquin $30,732 726,106 8.7%
Stanislaus $31,197 538,388 9.1%
Merced $27,329 268,455 11.8%
Real Estate Trends:
From 2014 to 2015 prices for SFR rose moderately with Merced
gaining the most in value. All 3 Counties median sales price is lower
than the state average by almost half.

Wright Report
Median
Sales Price
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2015
Median Sold
Price Dec.
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
San Joaquin $287,250 $267,070 7.6%
Stanislaus $249,440 $228,160 9.3%
Merced $208,930 $178,230 17.2%
The Number of Sales increased in San Joaquin and Stanislaus from
Q4-14 to Q4-15, but decreased slightly in Merced.
# of Homes
Sold
# Sold Q4-
2015
# Sold Q4-
2014
Yr/Yr %
Change
San Joaquin 1695 1585 6.9%
Stanislaus 1356 1188 14.1%
Merced 318 333 -4.5%
In Q4-15 properties sold in San Joaquin County at 98.6% of list price.
In Stanislaus County it was 98.8% and Merced it was the same as the
median list price.
The number of DOM stayed the same in Stanislaus at 38 days, but San
Joaquin declined 12% to 37 days in Q4-15 from 42 in Q4-14. Merced’s
average DOM declined 13% to 46 from 53 days.
Distressed Sales continue to remain above the state average at 8% -
9% of total sales.
Distressed Sales
December 2015
Bank Owned
(REO)
Short Sales
Distressed -
Total Sales
San Joaquin 4% 5% 9%
Stanislaus 6% 3% 9%
Merced 4% 4% 8%
Affordability went up in Merced County from 53% in Q4-14 to 55% in
Q4-15. San Joaquin reached 38% affordability, down from 41% last

Wright Report
year. Stanislaus hit 40% down from 44%. All are substantially higher
than the average state affordability at 30%.
Market Cycles:
San Joaquin County reached the high point in the last cycle during
June 2006 at $426,829. The lowest point was in April 2009 at a price
of $147,053. Since then the median sold price has increased 95% to
$287,250 in December 2015. It is currently 33% below the previous
high. Over the last 6 months the sold price has fluctuated slightly to
end the year a bit lower than the $296,030 price in June.
Stanislaus County reached the high point of the last cycle in
September 2005 at $370,103. The lowest point was in February 2012
at a price of $129,863. Since then it increased 92% to $249,440
where it is currently 33% below the previous high. Over the last 6
months the price has increased slightly and then came down to its
value in June of $249,670.

Wright Report
Merced County reached the high point of the last cycle in October 2005
at $344,615. The lowest point was in January 2010 at a price of
$96,666. Since then it increased 116% to $208,930 where it is
currently 39% below the previous high. Over the last 6 months the
price has risen and fallen but remains close to the June sold price at
$206,080.

Wright Report
RESOURCES:
ABREVIATIONS
CAR = California Association of Realtors
HAFA = Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative
HAMP = Home Affordable Mortgage Program
MLS = Multiple Listing Service
NAR = National Association of Realtors
NOD = Notice of Default
NOT = Notice of Trustee Sale
REO = Real Estate Owned by a bank, or foreclosure
SAR = Sacramento Association of Realtors
WRE = Wright Real Estate
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
MetrolistMLS.com- to search for properties. www.metrolistmls.com
NorthState Building Industry Association (BIA) www.northstatebia.org
Rental Housing Association (RHA) www.rha.org
Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR) www.sacrealtor.org
California Association of Realtors (CAR) www.car.org
National Association of Realtors (NAR) www.realtor.org
CA Employment Development Department (EDD)
www.labormarketinfo.eed.co.gov
United States Census www.factfinder.census.gov

Wright Report
Serving Sacramento since 2000.
Check out our BLOG and additional STATISTICS on the web at:
www.WrightRealEstate.US
For FREE Information and Consulting Services contact us:
Office: 916.726.8308 Joel@WrightRealEstate.US

Wright Report Q3-4_2015

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