T. Laureti, 30 Novembre - 1 Dicembre 2021 -
Webinar: I dati per definire e valutare le politiche
Titolo: Stima a livello locale degli indici dei prezzi al consumo utilizzando nuovi fonti
Serenella Ravioli discusses Istat's communication strategy and use of data visualization. She outlines how the internet has shortened attention spans, requiring online content to be accessible in a few seconds. Istat has embraced data visualization tools like infographics and interactive graphs to engage users and summarize data in compelling ways. Notable examples include infographics on Italy in the EU context from 2014 and consumer prices from 2018. Istat's experience shows how visualizing census and other statistical data through stories and interactive formats helps serve its mission to provide high-quality information to support decision making.
The Italian government has developed an open monitoring system called OpenCUP to increase transparency around public investments. OpenCUP uses a unique 15-character alphanumeric code called the CUP code to identify each public investment project. The CUP code allows data on projects to be interconnected across different government information systems and provides transparency on over 1.2 million projects worth over 1.2 trillion euros. OpenCUP also maintains a public portal that identifies each project and makes associated data available in open formats to increase transparency and data use.
The document discusses input privacy preserving techniques used in the UNECE Input Privacy Preservation project. The project involves several statistical organizations investigating use cases requiring input privacy and assessing applicable techniques like homomorphic encryption and federated learning. Mini-pilots were developed using private set intersection and federated machine learning to privately train models on sensor data from multiple organizations. The goals were to share experiences with input privacy preservation and build expertise in applying such techniques for official statistics.
From an experimental ISTAT survey:
1. Researchers used web scraping and text mining of 85,000 Italian company websites to develop models predicting key metrics like web ordering.
2. They compared these "alternative estimates" to traditional survey estimates for accuracy, finding the new estimates were equally accurate.
3. The new methods provided additional granular data like estimates by industry and region not available from surveys alone.
A. Ranieri, 30 Novembre - 1 Dicembre 2021 -
Webinar: Misurare le trasformazioni indotte dalla crisi
Titolo: Quali skills per il futuro in europa e in Italia?
Serenella Ravioli discusses Istat's communication strategy and use of data visualization. She outlines how the internet has shortened attention spans, requiring online content to be accessible in a few seconds. Istat has embraced data visualization tools like infographics and interactive graphs to engage users and summarize data in compelling ways. Notable examples include infographics on Italy in the EU context from 2014 and consumer prices from 2018. Istat's experience shows how visualizing census and other statistical data through stories and interactive formats helps serve its mission to provide high-quality information to support decision making.
The Italian government has developed an open monitoring system called OpenCUP to increase transparency around public investments. OpenCUP uses a unique 15-character alphanumeric code called the CUP code to identify each public investment project. The CUP code allows data on projects to be interconnected across different government information systems and provides transparency on over 1.2 million projects worth over 1.2 trillion euros. OpenCUP also maintains a public portal that identifies each project and makes associated data available in open formats to increase transparency and data use.
The document discusses input privacy preserving techniques used in the UNECE Input Privacy Preservation project. The project involves several statistical organizations investigating use cases requiring input privacy and assessing applicable techniques like homomorphic encryption and federated learning. Mini-pilots were developed using private set intersection and federated machine learning to privately train models on sensor data from multiple organizations. The goals were to share experiences with input privacy preservation and build expertise in applying such techniques for official statistics.
From an experimental ISTAT survey:
1. Researchers used web scraping and text mining of 85,000 Italian company websites to develop models predicting key metrics like web ordering.
2. They compared these "alternative estimates" to traditional survey estimates for accuracy, finding the new estimates were equally accurate.
3. The new methods provided additional granular data like estimates by industry and region not available from surveys alone.
A. Ranieri, 30 Novembre - 1 Dicembre 2021 -
Webinar: Misurare le trasformazioni indotte dalla crisi
Titolo: Quali skills per il futuro in europa e in Italia?
This document discusses ISTAT's experiments with using scanner data (SD) for sampling schemes to compute the consumer price index (CPI). It outlines ISTAT's context and experiments comparing probability and nonprobability sampling of items from SD. The experiments evaluated static and dynamic population approaches. Results showed probability sampling produced unbiased weighted index estimates and stratified one-stage sampling was most efficient. The experiments provided insights into practical and theoretical implications of static versus dynamic approaches for CPI calculation using SD.
Indonesia practices calculating regional and national income accounts on a quarterly and yearly basis through national and regional consultation meetings. There are often discrepancies between national aggregates and regional sums, as well as between production and expenditure approaches. Sources of discrepancies include differences between national and provincial inflation data and data collection methods. Problems include differences in data sources between national and regional levels and data gaps, particularly in services sector data. Efforts are made to reconcile data and identify sources of discrepancies through comparative analysis of raw data and methodology discussions. Plans are underway to shift calculations to income approaches, implement SNA 2008 and ISIC rev.4 standards, and use the 2006 Economic Census as a benchmark.
The document summarizes Brazil's process for producing regional economic accounts. It discusses the institutional organization involved, including the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. It outlines the 3 main steps of implementing the regional accounts methodology from 1996-1999, 1999, and 2007. It also describes the data sources, methodology, dissemination process, and released data.
The document outlines plans to transform UK economic statistics by making greater use of administrative data sources like VAT records. It discusses several ongoing and upcoming changes, including:
1) Improving GDP estimates by incorporating new output and input data and adopting "double deflation" to better account for price changes.
2) Enhancing UK trade statistics by providing more detailed data on goods and services trade by country, commodity, industry and region on a monthly basis.
3) Transforming the UK financial accounts to improve coverage, granularity and counterparty information drawing on regulatory and commercial data sources.
4) Exploring future uses of VAT data to replace business surveys and provide more granular economic indicators, initially focusing
This document summarizes and compares different measures of inflation and cost of living in the United States. It discusses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the Census Bureau, and other inflation measures like the GDP deflator. It also describes several sources that provide cost of living comparisons between geographic areas, including the ACCRA Cost of Living Index, ERI Cost of Living Analysis, and HUD Fair Market Rents. The document advises readers to consider the methodology and geographic coverage when choosing a data source for cost of living comparisons.
Textual information analysis for the integration of different data repositoriescarloamati
Methodological guidelines for record matching in absence of common identification codes in case of different data sources on investment projects, with practical application based on textual information
Demand from the pharmaceutical sector is set to grow with the introduction of new technologies in the carbon nanotubes sector which is expected to push the demand further in Taiwan. COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the market, in general, and disrupted the economy.
A new methodology for processing electronic transaction data is presented, which aims at reducing the methodological differences across data sets in the Dutch CPI. Articles/GTINs are combined into “homogeneous products”, each of which is defined by a set of article characteristics. Price increases after relaunches of GTINs can be captured in this way.
Price indices are calculated as a ratio of a turnover index and a weighted quantity index. Product weights are calculated for each product from multi-period prices, which allows the timely inclusion of new products. The method does not lead to chain drift and does not require price imputations.
The new methodology is intended to replace the current sample-based methods in the CPI for a department store and for mobile phones in January 2016.
http://www.istat.it/en/archive/168897
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/168890
A. Righi (ISTAT), G. Bruno (Bank of Italy) (with Iannaccone R., Moauro F., Zurlo D. - ISTAT and with the collaboration of Ardizzi G., Marcucci J. - Bank of Italy), 5 maggio 2021
WPG – Financial transactions data Case study: macroeconomic forecasts
Unpacking the ‘Black Box’ of Public Expenditure Statistics in Agriculture - Tewodaj Mogues, IFPRI
Presentation at MSU/IFPRI conference on “Agricultural Public Investments, Policies, and Markets for Mozambique’s Food Security and Economic Transformation”, Maputo, Mozambique, 20 November 2014
Portuguese version: http://www.slideshare.net/IFPRIDSG/tewodaj-port
This document discusses Indonesia's practices for calculating regional gross domestic product (GRP) and total discrepancies between national and regional data. It notes that Indonesia is made up of 33 provinces, calculates GRP quarterly and yearly, and holds national and regional consultation meetings to reconcile discrepancies between provincial and national data in both current and constant prices. Sources of discrepancies include differences between national and provincial inflation data and gaps in services sector data at the provincial level. The document also outlines Indonesia's efforts to minimize discrepancies by identifying sources of errors and filling data gaps, as well as plans to calculate GRP using income approaches and fully implement 2008 SNA standards.
Canback and D'Agnese - Where in the World Is the Market?Tellusant, Inc.
This article by our executive chairman, Staffan Canback, describes how to analyze global markets.
Finding, measuring and capturing market opportunities in emerging countries are critical tasks for multinational consumer goods companies. Central to these tasks is the need to collect and analyze income distribution data within a globally coherent framework and to move beyond income metrics based on national averages.
The article describes a new framework and dataset that achieves this goal and demonstrates how income distribution data, combined with consumer and marketing data, can be incorporated into simple demand models such as the Bass diffusion model or the Golder-Tellis affordability model to understand market dynamics. Our analytical effort is the first example of income distribution data being used to assess market opportunities in emerging countries.
We find that demand models based on the number of people within various income brackets at national or local levels are superior to models based on average income. We further find that combining income distribution data with pricing,
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Finalversion_Vacationrentalmarketregulationandaccommodationsupplygrowth.pdfSGB Media Group
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This presentation by Brazil was prepared for the break-out Session 1, “Surveys and other data gathering techniques”, in the discussion “Economic Analysis in Merger Investigations” at the 19th OECD Global Forum on Competition on 9 December 2020. More papers and presentations on the topic can be found at http://oe.cd/eami.
This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
Applying the Daily Inflation to Forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA...FGV Brazil
Since 2006, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) has calculated a daily version of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation index, calculated under the responsibility of the IBGE, the federal statistics agency in Brazil. Ardeo et. al. (2013) showed the importance of this indicator and how this daily information can be useful to a country that had high level of inflation. Despite the fact that this measure is a fair antecedent variable for inflation, due to some peculiarities concerning the collection period, the initial daily rating may not anticipate some effects, such as seasonal factors and the increase in prices controlled by the Brazilian Government. Hence, by taking into account the Monitor’s daily time series, this paper intends to forecast the IPCA for the first six days of data collection. The results show that the proposal technic improved the IPCA forecast in the beginning of data collection.
Digital 2022 October Global Statshot Report (Oct 2022) v02DataReportal
This report explores the global "state of digital" in October 2022. It contains all the latest stats, insights, and trends you need to make sense of how the world uses the internet, mobile devices, social media, and ecommerce. Read our complete analysis of these numbers here: https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2022-october-global-statshot
For more reports, including the latest global trends and in-depth local data for more than 240 countries and territories around the world, visit https://datareportal.com/
Key Highlights from the 2016 Canadian Census and Vision for 2021ExternalEvents
The document summarizes key highlights from Statistics Canada's 2016 Census of Agriculture and their vision for the 2021 Census. It discusses that the number of agricultural operations in Canada decreased between 2011 and 2016 while average farm sizes increased. It also outlines their plans for the 2021 Census, which include conducting it in May 2021 alongside the Census of Population for cost efficiencies, focusing on electronic data collection, integrating with other business surveys, and maximizing the use of administrative data and satellite imagery. The document concludes by looking ahead to potentially decoupling the 2026 Census of Agriculture from the population census and moving to an approach that relies more on administrative registers and integrated surveys and census.
Variations or irregular rise of consumer price index worldwide of which Ghana is no exception has affected many businesses in the country. However, the obvious indicator of an inflationary situation is rising prices of consumer goods. On the basis of the above, the researchers decided to do a trend analysis on consumer price indices obtained from the Ghana Statistical Service to serve as a guide to the business community in Ghana. The main objective of the analysis is to determine the overall pattern in the data and to subsequently fit an appropriate trend for forecasting future values. The main statistical technique used in this work is time series analysis. Based on the trend analysis carried out, the study revealed that, there was general upward trend in the CPIs in Ghana, collaborating an earlier research conducted by Ampofo. However, the shapes of graphs of the CPIs, showed a slight difference. Finally, forecast values or predictions for the CPIs were made for the year 2008.
This document discusses ISTAT's experiments with using scanner data (SD) for sampling schemes to compute the consumer price index (CPI). It outlines ISTAT's context and experiments comparing probability and nonprobability sampling of items from SD. The experiments evaluated static and dynamic population approaches. Results showed probability sampling produced unbiased weighted index estimates and stratified one-stage sampling was most efficient. The experiments provided insights into practical and theoretical implications of static versus dynamic approaches for CPI calculation using SD.
Indonesia practices calculating regional and national income accounts on a quarterly and yearly basis through national and regional consultation meetings. There are often discrepancies between national aggregates and regional sums, as well as between production and expenditure approaches. Sources of discrepancies include differences between national and provincial inflation data and data collection methods. Problems include differences in data sources between national and regional levels and data gaps, particularly in services sector data. Efforts are made to reconcile data and identify sources of discrepancies through comparative analysis of raw data and methodology discussions. Plans are underway to shift calculations to income approaches, implement SNA 2008 and ISIC rev.4 standards, and use the 2006 Economic Census as a benchmark.
The document summarizes Brazil's process for producing regional economic accounts. It discusses the institutional organization involved, including the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. It outlines the 3 main steps of implementing the regional accounts methodology from 1996-1999, 1999, and 2007. It also describes the data sources, methodology, dissemination process, and released data.
The document outlines plans to transform UK economic statistics by making greater use of administrative data sources like VAT records. It discusses several ongoing and upcoming changes, including:
1) Improving GDP estimates by incorporating new output and input data and adopting "double deflation" to better account for price changes.
2) Enhancing UK trade statistics by providing more detailed data on goods and services trade by country, commodity, industry and region on a monthly basis.
3) Transforming the UK financial accounts to improve coverage, granularity and counterparty information drawing on regulatory and commercial data sources.
4) Exploring future uses of VAT data to replace business surveys and provide more granular economic indicators, initially focusing
This document summarizes and compares different measures of inflation and cost of living in the United States. It discusses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the Census Bureau, and other inflation measures like the GDP deflator. It also describes several sources that provide cost of living comparisons between geographic areas, including the ACCRA Cost of Living Index, ERI Cost of Living Analysis, and HUD Fair Market Rents. The document advises readers to consider the methodology and geographic coverage when choosing a data source for cost of living comparisons.
Textual information analysis for the integration of different data repositoriescarloamati
Methodological guidelines for record matching in absence of common identification codes in case of different data sources on investment projects, with practical application based on textual information
Demand from the pharmaceutical sector is set to grow with the introduction of new technologies in the carbon nanotubes sector which is expected to push the demand further in Taiwan. COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the market, in general, and disrupted the economy.
A new methodology for processing electronic transaction data is presented, which aims at reducing the methodological differences across data sets in the Dutch CPI. Articles/GTINs are combined into “homogeneous products”, each of which is defined by a set of article characteristics. Price increases after relaunches of GTINs can be captured in this way.
Price indices are calculated as a ratio of a turnover index and a weighted quantity index. Product weights are calculated for each product from multi-period prices, which allows the timely inclusion of new products. The method does not lead to chain drift and does not require price imputations.
The new methodology is intended to replace the current sample-based methods in the CPI for a department store and for mobile phones in January 2016.
http://www.istat.it/en/archive/168897
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/168890
A. Righi (ISTAT), G. Bruno (Bank of Italy) (with Iannaccone R., Moauro F., Zurlo D. - ISTAT and with the collaboration of Ardizzi G., Marcucci J. - Bank of Italy), 5 maggio 2021
WPG – Financial transactions data Case study: macroeconomic forecasts
Unpacking the ‘Black Box’ of Public Expenditure Statistics in Agriculture - Tewodaj Mogues, IFPRI
Presentation at MSU/IFPRI conference on “Agricultural Public Investments, Policies, and Markets for Mozambique’s Food Security and Economic Transformation”, Maputo, Mozambique, 20 November 2014
Portuguese version: http://www.slideshare.net/IFPRIDSG/tewodaj-port
This document discusses Indonesia's practices for calculating regional gross domestic product (GRP) and total discrepancies between national and regional data. It notes that Indonesia is made up of 33 provinces, calculates GRP quarterly and yearly, and holds national and regional consultation meetings to reconcile discrepancies between provincial and national data in both current and constant prices. Sources of discrepancies include differences between national and provincial inflation data and gaps in services sector data at the provincial level. The document also outlines Indonesia's efforts to minimize discrepancies by identifying sources of errors and filling data gaps, as well as plans to calculate GRP using income approaches and fully implement 2008 SNA standards.
Canback and D'Agnese - Where in the World Is the Market?Tellusant, Inc.
This article by our executive chairman, Staffan Canback, describes how to analyze global markets.
Finding, measuring and capturing market opportunities in emerging countries are critical tasks for multinational consumer goods companies. Central to these tasks is the need to collect and analyze income distribution data within a globally coherent framework and to move beyond income metrics based on national averages.
The article describes a new framework and dataset that achieves this goal and demonstrates how income distribution data, combined with consumer and marketing data, can be incorporated into simple demand models such as the Bass diffusion model or the Golder-Tellis affordability model to understand market dynamics. Our analytical effort is the first example of income distribution data being used to assess market opportunities in emerging countries.
We find that demand models based on the number of people within various income brackets at national or local levels are superior to models based on average income. We further find that combining income distribution data with pricing,
marketing spending, consumer behavior and distribution coverage data makes it possible to measure which factors drive demand at the brand level — even in hard-to-analyze countries.
Finalversion_Vacationrentalmarketregulationandaccommodationsupplygrowth.pdfSGB Media Group
This document summarizes a research article that analyzes the impact of a 2016 policy change in Asturias, Spain that reduced bureaucratic procedures for officially registering short-term residential vacation rentals (RVRs). The study uses a differences-in-differences approach comparing the evolution of RVR accommodation growth to that of tourist apartments in 78 municipalities between 2013-2019. Preliminary results suggest the policy easing increased the number of RVR establishments and bed places by an average of 5 and 26 units respectively per municipality.
This presentation by Brazil was prepared for the break-out Session 1, “Surveys and other data gathering techniques”, in the discussion “Economic Analysis in Merger Investigations” at the 19th OECD Global Forum on Competition on 9 December 2020. More papers and presentations on the topic can be found at http://oe.cd/eami.
This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
Applying the Daily Inflation to Forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA...FGV Brazil
Since 2006, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) has calculated a daily version of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation index, calculated under the responsibility of the IBGE, the federal statistics agency in Brazil. Ardeo et. al. (2013) showed the importance of this indicator and how this daily information can be useful to a country that had high level of inflation. Despite the fact that this measure is a fair antecedent variable for inflation, due to some peculiarities concerning the collection period, the initial daily rating may not anticipate some effects, such as seasonal factors and the increase in prices controlled by the Brazilian Government. Hence, by taking into account the Monitor’s daily time series, this paper intends to forecast the IPCA for the first six days of data collection. The results show that the proposal technic improved the IPCA forecast in the beginning of data collection.
Digital 2022 October Global Statshot Report (Oct 2022) v02DataReportal
This report explores the global "state of digital" in October 2022. It contains all the latest stats, insights, and trends you need to make sense of how the world uses the internet, mobile devices, social media, and ecommerce. Read our complete analysis of these numbers here: https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2022-october-global-statshot
For more reports, including the latest global trends and in-depth local data for more than 240 countries and territories around the world, visit https://datareportal.com/
Key Highlights from the 2016 Canadian Census and Vision for 2021ExternalEvents
The document summarizes key highlights from Statistics Canada's 2016 Census of Agriculture and their vision for the 2021 Census. It discusses that the number of agricultural operations in Canada decreased between 2011 and 2016 while average farm sizes increased. It also outlines their plans for the 2021 Census, which include conducting it in May 2021 alongside the Census of Population for cost efficiencies, focusing on electronic data collection, integrating with other business surveys, and maximizing the use of administrative data and satellite imagery. The document concludes by looking ahead to potentially decoupling the 2026 Census of Agriculture from the population census and moving to an approach that relies more on administrative registers and integrated surveys and census.
Variations or irregular rise of consumer price index worldwide of which Ghana is no exception has affected many businesses in the country. However, the obvious indicator of an inflationary situation is rising prices of consumer goods. On the basis of the above, the researchers decided to do a trend analysis on consumer price indices obtained from the Ghana Statistical Service to serve as a guide to the business community in Ghana. The main objective of the analysis is to determine the overall pattern in the data and to subsequently fit an appropriate trend for forecasting future values. The main statistical technique used in this work is time series analysis. Based on the trend analysis carried out, the study revealed that, there was general upward trend in the CPIs in Ghana, collaborating an earlier research conducted by Ampofo. However, the shapes of graphs of the CPIs, showed a slight difference. Finally, forecast values or predictions for the CPIs were made for the year 2008.
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1. Stima a livello locale degli
indici dei prezzi al
consumo utilizzando
nuove fonti
TIZIANA LAURETI
Professore Ordinario di Statistica Economica | Università degli
Studi della Tuscia
30.11-1.12//2021
2. oNuove fonti e statistiche sui prezzi
oL’importanza della comparazione spaziale dei prezzi al consumo
oIndici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo in Italia
oNuove fonti di dati e indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo
oStime degli indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo in Italia:
Metodologia, dati e risultati
oConclusione
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
Indice
2
3. Nuove fonti e statistiche sui prezzi
I big data (scanner data e web scraped
data) sono entrati recentemente nel
processo di produzione corrente degli
indici dei prezzi al consumo:
Indici temporali - Consumer Price
Indexes (CPI)
Indici spaziali - Spatial Price Indexes
(SPI)
3
Indici spaziale dei prezzi misurano le differenze nel
livello dei prezzi tra Paesi o tra regioni all’interno di un
Paese in un dato momento temporale
Le comparazioni dei prezzi nello spazio analizzano la
relazione tra livelli dei prezzi e il potere di acquisto del
denaro in due diverse aree geografiche
Comparazioni essenziali per misurare gli standard di
e il benessere relative delle famiglie in termini reali sia
nel confronto tra i Paesi sia in quello interno ai Paesi
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
4. Nuove fonti e statistiche sui prezzi
Indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo tra paesi
(International SPIs o Purchasing Power Parities
PPPs)
International Comparison Program- World Bank,
OECD-Eurostat
Le comparazioni dei prezzi a livello internazionale
sono legate al concetto di Parità del potere
d’acquisto delle valute (PPPs)
La PPA tra due contesti territoriali A e B,
esprime il numero di unità monetarie che sono
necessarie per acquistare in B la stessa
quantità di beni e servizi acquistabili, con una
unità di moneta, nel contesto territoriale A
4
Finalità: misure di povertà, ranking dei Paesi in
termini di reali dimensioni dell’economia,
comparazione dei redditi reali pro capite, finalità
amministrative (allocazione dei fondi strutturali a
livello europeo)
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
5. CONFRONTI A LIVELLO NAZIONALE
Il problema della comparazione nello spazio dei
prezzi all’interno di ciascun Paese (Indici
spaziali dei prezzi al consumo o parità
regionale del potere d’acquisto)
Paesi di grandi dimensioni e in paesi
caratterizzati da differenziali economici
rilevanti tra diverse aree:
permettere una lettura più accurata delle
diseguaglianze e delle condizioni di vita
delle famiglie
Parità regionali del poter d’acquisto come
fattori di aggiustamento per meglio valutare gli
indicatori di povertà tra diverse aree del Paese
(povertà relativa)
Numerosi gli studi e esperienze condotte in
diversi Paesi sulle parità intra-nazionali del
potere d’acquisto (USA, Brasile, India,
Indonesia, Cina, Australia, Gran Bretagna)
Recente pubblicazione del Manuale ICP World
Bank
5
L’importanza della comparazione spaziale dei prezzi al consumo
Contributo
dell’ITALIA
Laureti e Polidoro
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
6. 6
I valori regionali degli indicatori economici
dovrebbero essere aggiustati per le differenze di
prezzo regionali
Reddito disponibile lordo pro capite (Anno 2019)
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
L’importanza della comparazione spaziale dei prezzi al consumo
7. 7
Indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo in Italia
L’Italia ha condotto due sperimentazioni (Istat, 2008, 2010):
1. Nel 2008 (2006) per tre divisioni di spesa COICOP (Alimentari e bevande analcoliche, Abbigliamento
e calzature, mobili e articoli per la casa), utilizzando la formula GEKS, dati NIC e alcune rilevazioni ad
hoc)
2. Nel 2010 (2009) per tutte le divisioni di spesa, GEKS e CPD per gli affitti reali
Il problema cruciale per la stima di parità regionali del potere d’acquisto: la disponibilità di informazioni di
base idonee a tal fine
1. Principio della comparabilità. Si richiede di considerare prodotti identici con qualità simile o identica.
In tal modo si vuole garantire che le differenze nei prezzi tra paesi per un prodotto riflettano “reali”
differenze di prezzo e non siano influenzate da differenze nella qualità dei prodotti.
2. Principio della rappresentatività. Questo concetto è legato all’importanza del prodotto nel consumo
della popolazione di ciascuna area del paese. In genere non è possibile disporre di pesi definiti in
termini di spesa per lo specifico prodotto nelle basi dati per il calcolo dell’inflazione
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
8. 8
La straordinaria novità rappresentata dagli scanner data e la rilevanza dell’attività che su questo terreno sta conducendo
l’Istat
1. Vantaggi. La disponibilità di informazioni granulari (associate ai singoli GTIN) e con i dati sul fatturato e le quantità
vendute), ampia copertura del territorio
2. Limiti. Copertura parziale delle merceologie e dei canali distributivi
STUDI PRECEDENTI- USO DATI SCANNER e WEB SCRAPED PER CONFRONTI SPAZIALI
Comparazioni internazionali
Diversi studi di ricerca: Heravi et al, 2003; Feenstra et al, 2017; Cavallo et al 2018
A livello ufficiale: per la raccolta delle informazioni necessarie per le PPP (ICP, OECD-Eurostat)
Comparazioni intra-nazionali
Progetto Istat: progetto di ricerca per la costruzione degli SPI che coinvolge anche i dati scanner (Laureti
and Polidoro, 2016, 2017; Laureti, Ferrante e Dramis, 2017; Laureti and Polidoro, 2022),
Altri paesi iniziano le sperimentazioni (es. Francia-Insee)
Nuove fonti di dati e indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
9. 9
• Il progetto Istat per giungere a una stima periodica degli indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo (parità regionali del potere
d’acquisto) basato su un approccio multi-fonte:
Rilevazione tradizionale sviluppata ad hoc sul territorio dagli Uffici Comunali di Statistica (UCS) dei
capoluoghi di regione agganciata ai cicli triennali d’indagine delle parità internazionali del potere d’acquisto
(ogni sei mesi vengono rilevati i dati di tutte le merceologie per le quali non è possibile utilizzare i dati mensilmente
rilevati per la stima dell’inflazione a causa dei problemi di comparabilità delle informazioni di base)
I dati mensilmente rilevati dagli UCS per la stima dell’inflazione per i quali non ci sono problemi di comparabilità
delle informazioni di base (utilities, alcuni servizi tra i quali quelli di ristorazione, alimentari freschi chiaramente
identificati da varietà pre-codificate, altri)
Scanner data per i prodotti grocery
Fonti amministrative già utilizzate per la stima dell’inflazione e sufficientemente dettagliate per definire confronti
like to like tra territori (carburanti, canoni di affitto)
Internet (utilizzando le informazioni di merceologie per le quali è disponibile un dettaglio territoriale nei dati già
raccolti dall’Istat o di merceologie per le quali non ci sono differenziali territoriali di prezzo)
• L’individuazione dei metodi e degli algoritmi per l’aggregazione dei dati provenienti da fonti così eterogenee rappresenta la
sfida con la quale l’Istat, con la collaborazione dell’accademia, ha in animo di confrontarsi per giungere entro il 2022 al
rilascio di prime stime sperimentali della parità regionali del potere d’acquisto
Il progetto Istat per stime periodiche degli indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
10. 1. Scanner sono: molteplici sperimentazioni
a) Progetto Istat: costruzione degli indici dei prezzi al consumo (Laureti and
Polidoro, 2017; Laureti, Ferrante e Dramis, 2017; Laureti and Polidoro, 2022)
b) Progetto Makswell
Medesima metodologia
2. Web-scraped data: progetto Unitus in fase iniziale.
• Primi risultati
10
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
Stime degli indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo in Italia
11. 11
STIME A LIVELLO REGIONALE: DATI SCANNER
DATASET PER STIME REGIONALI DEI PRESSI AL CONSUMO (PROGETTO ISTAT)
OUTLETS:
Campionamento casuale stratificato:
Universo di 9,000 retailers appartenenti alle 16 più importanti catene della GDO (94% della
distribuzione moderna).
Stratificazione per provincia, catena distributiva e tipo di negozio (888 strat1)
Outlets sono selezioni con probabilità proporzionali al fatturato del 2016
1,781 outlets (510 ipermercati e 1,271 supermarcati)
PRODOTTI: selezionati secondo cut-off threshold (fino al 60% dell’aggregato)
ANNO: 2017
DATASET PER STIME PROVINCIALI (PROGETTO WAKSWELL)
PRODOTTI: selezionati secondo senza cut-off threshold
ANNO: 2018
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
12. 12
1. Identificazione del prodotto: livello più disaggregato possibile (GTIN)- comparabilità
2. Determinazione del prezzo (unit value) annuale a livello di punto vendita usando una media ponderata
dei prezzi settimanali di ciascun GTIN
3. Stima dei prezzi medi provinciali utilizzando i pesi campionari calcolati per ciascun punto vendita
derivanti dal disegno campionario Calcolate medie annuali dei prezzi GTIN/provincia utilizzando
l’informazione sul fatturato come peso (avendo l’informazione a livello più granulare possibile)
4. Stima degli indici spaziali dei prezzi tra aree geografiche (regioni, province). Due livelli di aggregazione:
1. Gruppo di prodotti): SPI per BH (Basic Heading)
Metodo selezionato weighted regional product dummy models
2. Aggregazione di gruppi di prodotti: (Alimentari e non alimentari)
Metodo GEKS basato su Fisher e standardizzato (procedura OECD-Eurostat)
Per le stime regionali è stata utilizzata una procedura in due step (replicando si scala nazionale lo
schema dell’ICP)
𝑝𝑦 = 𝑤∈𝑦 𝑝𝑤
𝑝𝑤𝑞𝑤
𝑤∈𝑦 𝑝𝑤𝑞𝑤
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
Stime degli indici spaziali dei prezzi al consumo in Italia
13. 13
Si considerino prezzi 𝑝𝑖𝑗 e quantità 𝑞𝑖𝑗 di singoli item i=1,2…,Nj
Allo scopo di considerare l’importanza economica (rappresentatività) di ciascun prodotto si è utilizzato il
modello pesato Weighted Regional Product Dummy (WRPD)
𝑤𝑖𝑗𝑙𝑛𝑝𝑖𝑗 = 𝑗=1
𝑀𝑟
𝜋𝑗 𝑤𝑖𝑗 𝐷𝑗
+ 𝑖=1
𝑛
𝜂𝑖 𝑤𝑖𝑗𝐷𝑖
+ 𝑣𝑖𝑗
dove Dj e 𝐷𝑖
sono, rispettivamente, variabili dummy per province e prodotti con valore 1 per la
regione/provincia j e prodotto i respectively e 0 altrimenti, 𝑣𝑖𝑗 sono variabili aleatorie i.i.d con media 0 e
varianza σ2, 𝑤𝑖𝑗 sono valori delle spese relative (expenditure share value) per i-th item nella j-th
provincial/regione sul numero totale degli items nella l-th BH:𝑤𝑖𝑗 =
𝑝𝑖𝑗𝑞𝑖𝑗
𝑖=1
𝑁𝑙 𝑝𝑖𝑗𝑞𝑖𝑗
con 𝑤𝑖𝑗 = 1 per ogni
regione/provincia e BH.
𝑊𝑅_𝑆𝑃𝐼𝑗
𝑊𝑅_𝑊𝑅𝑃𝐷
= 𝑒𝜋𝑗
Metodologia: primo stadio di aggregazione
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
14. 14
Metodologia: secondo stadio di aggregazione
Il passaggio finale consiste nell’aggregare I risultati ottenuti dalla compoarazione a livello di BH. In linea
con l’approccio internazionale si è utilizzata la metodologia GEKS basato sugli indici Fisher.
Supponiamo di avere L basic headings (l=1,…,L) e 𝑝𝑙
𝑟
and 𝑒𝑙
𝑟
representano prezzi e spese per l-th basic
heading nella regione/provincial r, respettivamente. L’indice di Fisher è espresso da:
𝑃𝑟𝑠
𝐹𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑟
= 𝑃𝑟𝑠
𝐿𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑦𝑟𝑒𝑠
∙ 𝑃𝑠𝑟
𝑃𝑎𝑎𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑒
𝑃𝑟𝑠
𝐿𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑦𝑟𝑒𝑠
=
𝑙=1
𝐿
𝑝𝑙
𝑠
𝑞𝑙
𝑟
𝑙=1
𝐿
𝑝𝑙
𝑟
𝑞𝑙
𝑟 = 𝑠𝑙
𝑟
𝑝𝑙
𝑠
𝑝𝑙
𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑠
𝑃𝑎𝑎𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑒 =
𝑙=1
𝐿
𝑝𝑙
𝑠
𝑞𝑙
𝑠
𝑙=1
𝐿
𝑝𝑙
𝑟
𝑞𝑙
𝑠 =
𝑙
𝑠𝑙
𝑠 𝑝𝑙
𝑠
𝑝𝑙
𝑟
−1 −1
con 𝑠𝑙
𝑟
=
𝑒𝑙
𝑟
𝑙=1
𝐿 𝑒𝑙
𝑟 =
𝑝𝑙
𝑟
𝑞𝑙
𝑟
𝑙=1
𝐿 𝑝𝑙
𝑟𝑞𝑙
𝑟
Poiché gli indici di Fisher non soddisfano la transitività si usa la procedura GEKS per ottenere
comparazioni multilaterali transitive.
𝑆𝑃𝐼𝑗𝑘
𝐺𝐸𝐾𝑆
=
𝑗=1
𝑀
𝑆𝑃𝐼𝑗𝑙
𝐺𝐸𝐾𝑆
∙ 𝑆𝑃𝐼𝑙𝑘
𝐺𝐸𝐾𝑆 1 𝑀
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
15. 15
Risultati: Indici spaziali dei prezzi a livello regionale
I livelli di prezzo nelle regioni del Sud sono in genere al disotto della media nazionale sia per Alimentari
che per Non alimentari, con l’eccezione dell’Abruzzo (101.90 e 101.33), Molise (102.90 e 101.24) and
Sardegna (101.93 and 101.57)
Il caso della Toscana (96.24 e 95.17)
Prodotti Alimentari (Italia=100) Prodotti Non-Alimentari (Italia=100)
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
17. 17
Risultati a livello provinciale: Gruppi di prodotti
Pasta
Caffè
Il dualismo Nord-Sud è confermato
solo per alcune categorie di prodotto
(BH).
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
18. 18
Risultati a livello provinciale
Prodotti Alimentari (Italia=100) Prodotti Non-Alimentari (Italia=100)
19. 19
Progetto utilizzo dati web Unitus: primi risultati
Risultati preliminari – Progetto webscraping
• Informazioni raccolte da oltre 460
supermercati localizzati
geograficamente in 19 Regioni
• Esplorazione su dati relativi alla
pasta, una categoria iconica per i
consumatori Italiani
• 2554 prodotti unici identificati
tramite GTIN nella categoria Pasta
• Rilevanti connessioni tra Regioni
per prodotti comuni
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
20. 20
Regione ISP
Pasta
P-Value
Abruzzo 99.7
Basilicata 93.7 ***
Calabria 92.5 ***
Campania 90.1 ***
Emilia-Romagna 101.5 *
Friuli Venezia Giulia 99.0
Liguria 105.6 ***
Lombardia 104.5 ***
Marche 100.2
Molise 93.5 ***
Piemonte 105.7 ***
Puglia 88.9 ***
Sardegna 102.3 ***
Sicilia 92.4 ***
Toscana 100.2
Umbria 94.3 ***
Valle d'Aosta 19.3 ***
Veneto 94.2 ***
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
Progetto utilizzo dati web: primi risultati
Si stanno usando dati riferiti a periodi temporali più ampi
21. 21
Conclusioni
STIMA A LIVELLO LOCALE DEGLI INDICI DEI PREZZI AL CONSUMO UTILIZZANDO NUOVE FONTI | TIZIANA LAURETI
I dati scanner consentono la costruzione degli indici spaziali dei prezzi al
consumo per alcune categorie di prodotti
Necessarie altre fonti di dati
Progetto Istat fondamentale per colmare il gap informativo
Uso per analisi delle disuguaglianze
Indicators concerning absolute poverty (measured according to household expenditure) confirmed the differences observed across the Italian territory. Before the two economic crises, in 2007, the absolute poverty rate in terms of households was 3.1% in the North and 4.6% in the South and Islands. In 2017, the absolute poverty rate in Italy increased as well as the gap between the two geographical macro-areas reaching the value of 10.3 in the South and Islands and 5.4 in Northern Italy (Istat, 2018b). Even if in 2019 this gap appeared to decrease (8.6% vs 5.8%) it still indicates a considerable disparity (Istat, 2020). The North-South gap widens if we consider the relative household poverty rate (in expenditure terms). In 2017, this rate was 5.9% in the North and 24.7% in the South while in 2019 it increased to 6.8% in the Northern regions and decreased to 21.1% in the South, thus indicating that in 2019 Southern households in relative poverty remained three-fold higher than those recorded in the North whereas households in absolute poverty were approximately 1.5 times higher than those in the North.
These differences between the absolute and relative poverty rates together with household expenditure level data provide further proof that measuring consumer price differences in Italy is essential. Indeed, Istat computes absolute poverty indicators taking into account thresholds that differ by municipality typology and by geographical macro-areas. In terms of geographical areas, the differences amongst the thresholds are mainly due to the consumer price component that was considered in their estimation, thus the comparison of these thresholds between different geographical areas represents a proxy of “poverty purchasing power parities”. As regards relative poverty, the threshold is uniform for the entire Italian territory and therefore does not take the differences of prices amongst regions into consideration.
It is clear that these indicators combined with the evidence coming from the current survey on consumer prices for estimating inflation, prove that household purchasing power differs across Italian regions and that consumer prices are mainly responsible for this difference.