April 4, 2014 Panel 2 Dr. Sipic Cascadia Hazards Institute @CWU Seismic Hazards & the Built Environment

1. RISK COMMUNICATION
AND HAZARDS
BY TONI SIPIC, PH.D.
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
COLLEGE OF BUSINESS
CENTRAL WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

2. Introduction
 Risk
 Risk Communication
 Risk Governance and Preparedness
 Challenges to Risk Communication
 Information processing
 Case Studies of Practices
 Seismic Hazards Laws in California
 Oso Landslide
 Public Policy

3. Risk
 Risk - condition in which there is a possibility
that persons or property could experience
adverse consequences
 Risk communication addresses the exchange
of information, knowledge and attitudes
between decision makers, experts,
stakeholders, and the affected public and
focuses on concrete risk situations

4. Function of Risk
Communication
 Communication prior to adverse events
 Raise awareness
 Encourage protective behavior
 Inform to build up knowledge on hazards and risks
 Inform to promote acceptance of risks and management
measures
 Communication during the adverse events
 Inform on how to behave during events
 Warn of and trigger action to impending and current events
 Communication after the adverse events
 Reassure the audience (to reduce anxiety or ‘manage’
outrage)
 Improve relationships (build trust, cooperation, networks)

5. Preparedness Justification
 For each additional person that is able to
provide for their own needs, the burden on
the emergency services is decreased by one
 Public emergency preparedness equips
individuals with the knowledge, skills, or
resources necessary to increase their
likelihood of survival and to minimize
financial and other losses in the event of an
emergency or disaster
 Ordinary citizens who are empowered with
these tools are better able to help
themselves, their families, their neighbors,
and their communities

6. IRGC,
2009

7. Challenges for Risk
Communication
CapHaz, 2009

8. Challenges for Seismic Risk
Communication
 Hazard contexts vary nationwide
 Risk communication contexts also vary in a
variety of ways
 Earthquakes range from infrequent to very rare
for individual communities, and highly damaging
earthquakes remain very rare
 Regions, communities, groups, and individuals
vary with respect to their earthquake experience
 All earthquake forecasts and loss projections
involve significant uncertainties, and those
uncertainties also vary on a regional basis
Tierney, 2004

9. Challenges for Seismic Risk
Communication
 Public perceptions and knowledge of the earthquake threat
also vary as a function of such factors as socioeconomic
status, ethnicity, and gender
 Even in areas where awareness is high, that awareness only
rarely leads to action
 In general, the public is not well-informed, either with respect
to the earthquake hazard or with respect to current and
achievable levels of seismic safety
 Earthquakes tend to be low on political agendas, except
during periods immediately following significant disaster
events
 Since the events of September 11, 2001, earthquakes and
other natural hazards must increasingly compete with
homeland-security-related threats for public attention and
dollarsTierney, 2004

10. Stages of Processing
Information
 Exposure to the message
 Attention to the message
 Comprehension of the arguments and
conclusions presented in the message
 Yielding to the message
 Accepting the message
 Information integration (which allows for
message retention)
Crisis and Risk Communications , 2014

11. Practices
 Best practice case study: Seismic Hazards
Laws in California
 Bad practice case study: Oso Landslide

12. Policy evolution of Seismic
Hazards Laws in California
 Field Act and Garrison Act
 Law passed in response to 1933 Long Beach
earthquake
 Unreinforced Masonry Building Law
 Law passed in response to 1984 Morgan Hill
earthquake
 Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act of
1972
 Law passed in response to 1971 San Fernando
Earthquake

13. Standardized Natural Hazards
Disclosure Statement
 The Natural Hazards Disclosure Act, under Sec.
1103 of the California Civil Code states that real
estate seller and brokers are legally required to
disclose if the property being sold lies within one
or more state or locally mapped hazard areas
 A Special Flood Hazard Area
 Dam Inundation
 Very High Fire
 Wildland fire
 Earthquake Fault Zone
 A Seismic hazard

14. Standardized Natural Hazards
Disclosure Statement

15. Standardized Natural Hazards
Disclosure Statement
California Seismic Hazards Zonation Program, 2014

16. Oso Landslide
Wikipedia, 2014

17. Oso Landslide
 1990 Growth Management Act required
counties and cities to identify “geologically
hazardous areas,” including landslide areas
 Development rules in landslide areas don’t
affect development that’s already been built
downslope
 Local governments should consider buying out
homeowners
Seattle Times, 2014

18. Oso Landslide
 Previous slide events in the area in1949,
1951, 1967,1988 and 2006
 Miller-Sias DOE report drew boundaries for
where groundwater could feed into the slope
and increase the risks of landslide
 When issuing logging restrictions DNR used
outdated information
Seattle Times, 2014

19. Oso Landslide

20. Issues With Public Policy
Addressing Hazards
 Healey and Malhotra (APSR 2009)
 Voters reward the incumbent presidential party for
delivering disaster relief spending
 Voters punish incumbent presidential party for
investing in disaster preparedness
 These inconsistencies distort the incentives of
public officials
 Governments underinvest in disaster
preparedness, causing substantial public welfare
losses.
 $1 spent on preparedness is worth about $15 in
terms of the future damage it mitigates

21. Public Policy
 Adverse events increase the salience of the
issue with the public
 Evidence on increases in the demand for risk
prevention policies from empirical economics
literature
 Love Canal and Cuyahoga River and toxics
legislation
 Temperature and precipitation and Kyoto
Agreement
 Nuclear Accidents and Nuclear Safety IEA
 Oil spills and MARPOL

22. Thank you!
 Questions?