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IE 342- Engineering
Economic Analysis
2017 – 2018 Fall Semester
1
IE 342 - Engineering Economic
Analysis
2
Instructors Dr. Emre Uzun (Sec 1)
E-mail: emreu@bilkent.edu.tr
Offıce: EA 328
Tel: x3484
Office Hours: By appointment via email
Okan Dükkancı (Sec 2)
E-mail: okan.dukkanci@bilkent.edu.tr
Offıce: EA 324
Tel: x3483
Office Hours: By appointment via email
Teaching
Assistants
Halit Metehan Dilaver
Eren Özbay
 Required Text Book:
Park, C. S., Contemporary Engineering
Economics, 6th Ed., Prentice Hall, 2016
3
Web Site/Email:
 All announcements and course related material (e.g.
Study sets, lecture notes) will be posted on the course
web page.
 Students are responsible for all the announcements
made in class, or via e-mail.
 It is the students’ responsibility to be aware of what has
been covered in lectures, and to check the web page
and e-mail accounts regularly and not miss any activity
or information.
4
Course Description
 Concepts of time value of money.
 Analysis of engineering decisions
 Principles and methodology of comparing decision
alternatives, such as various engineering designs,
manufacturing equipment, or industrial projects.
 Effects of depreciation, inflation and taxation on
economic decisions, cost benefit analysis of public
projects.
 Dealing with uncertainty and risk; rational decision
making when future outcomes are uncertain.
 Replacement analysis.
5
Grading
 Midterm I - 22 %
 Midterm II - 22 %
 Final Exam - 30 %
 4 Quizzes - 20 %
 Class Participation - 6 %
 Total - 100%
 Study Sets (will not be graded)
6
Policies
 Attendance:
 There may be random attendances taken which will count
towards your class participation grade.
 FZ Grade Policy:
 No FZ this semester!
7
Policies
 Makeup Policy:
 A make-up examination for the midterms will only be given under highly unusual
circumstances (such as serious health or family problems). The student should
contact the instructor as early as possible and provide the instructor with proper
documentation (such as a medical note certified by Bilkent University’s Health
Center).
 There is no make-up for quizzes.
 Classroom Policy:
 No need to come to classroom if you are not in the mood for learning!
8
Tentative Course Outline:
 Ch.1: Engineering Economic Decisions
 Ch.3: Time Value of Money
 Ch.3: Economic Equivalence
 Ch.3: Interest Formulas - Single Cash Flows
 Ch.3: Interest Formulas – Equal Payment Series
 Ch.3: Interest Formulas – Gradient Series
 Ch.3: Unconventional Equivalence Calculations
 Ch.4: Nominal and Effective Interest Rates
 Ch.4: Equivalence Analysis using Effective Interest Rates
 Ch.4: Debt Management
 Ch.4: Investing in Financial Assets
 Ch.5: Payback Period
 Ch.5: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
9
 Ch.5: Variations of Present Worth Analysis
 Ch.5: Comparing Mutually Exclusive Alternatives
 Ch.6: Annual Equivalent Worth Criterion
 Ch.6: Applying Annual Worth Analysis
 Ch.7: Rate of Return Analysis
 Ch.7: Finding RoR
 Ch.7: Internal Rate of Return Criterion
 Ch.7: Incremental Analysis
 Ch.9: Asset Depreciation
 Ch.9: Depreciation Methods
 Ch.9: Corporate Income Taxes
 Ch.10: Developing Project Cash Flows
 Ch.11: Meaning and Measure of Inflation
 Ch.11: Equivalence Calculation under Inflation
 Ch.11: Effects of Inflation of Project Cash Flows
10
 Ch.12: Project Risk
 Ch.12: Estimating Risk
 Ch.12: Decision Tree Analysis
 Ch.14: Replacement Analysis Fundamentals
 Ch.14: Replacement Decision Models
 Ch.15: Methods of Financing
 Ch.15: Cost of Capital
 Ch.15: Choice of MARR
 Ch.16: Benefit-Cost Ratio
11
12
Engineering Economic Decisions
Lecture 1
Presentation based on the book
Chan S. Park, Contemporary Engineering Economics
Chapter 1, © Pearson Education International Edition
Getting a Car in the USA
13
Getting a Car in the USA
14
15
A Simple Illustrative Example: Car to
Finance – Saturn or Honda?
 Recognize the decision
problem
 Collect all needed
(relevant) information
 Identify the set of feasible
decision alternatives
 Define the key objectives
and constraints
 Select the best possible
and implementable
decision alternative
 Need to lease a car
 Gather technical and
financial data
 Select cars to consider
 Wanted: small cash outlay,
safety, good performance,
aesthetics,…
 Choice between Saturn
and Honda (or others)
 Select a car (i.e., Honda,
Saturn or another brand)
16
Large-Scale Engineering Projects
These typically
 require a large sum of investment
 can be very risky
 take a long time to see the financial outcomes
 lead to revenue and cost streams that are difficult to
predict
All the above aspects (and some others not listed here)
point towards the importance of EEA
17
Types of Strategic Engineering Economic
Decisions in the Manufacturing Sector
 Service Improvement
 Equipment and Process Selection
 Equipment Replacement
 New Product and Product Expansion
 Cost reduction or profit maximization can be seen as
generic (common, eventual) objectives
 In the most general sense, we have to make decisions
under resource constraints, and in presence of
uncertainty – not only in the EEA context
18
The Four Fundamental Principles of
Engineering Economics
 1: An instant dollar is worth more than a distant dollar…
 2: Only the relative (pair-wise) difference among the
considered alternatives counts…
 3: Marginal revenue must exceed marginal cost, in order to
carry out a profitable increase of operations
 4: Additional risk is not taken without an expected additional
return of suitable magnitude
19
Principle 1
An instant dollar is worth more than
a distant dollar…
Today 6 months later
20
Principle 2
Only the cost (resource) difference
among alternatives counts
Option Monthly
Fuel Cost
Monthly
Maintenance
Cash paid
at signing
(cash
outlay )
Monthly
payment
Salvage
Value at end
of year 3
Buy $960 $550 $6,500 $350 $9,000
Lease $960 $550 $2,400 $550 0
The data shown in the green fields are irrelevant items for decision
making, since their financial impact is identical in both cases
21
Principle 3
Marginal (unit) revenue has to
exceed marginal cost, in order to
increase production
Manufacturing cost
Sales revenue
Marginal
revenue
Marginal
cost
1 unit
1 unit
22
Principle 4
Additional risk is not taken without a
suitable expected additional return
Investment Class Potential
Risk
Expected
Return
Savings account
(cash)
Lowest 1.5%
Bond (debt) Moderate 4.8%
Stock (equity) Highest 11.5%
A simple illustrative example. Note that all investments imply
some risk: portfolio management is a key issue in finance
23
Summary
 The term engineering economic decision refers to any
investment or other decision related to an engineering
project
 The five main types of engineering economic decisions are
(1) service improvement, (2) equipment and process
selection, (3) equipment replacement, (4) new product and
product expansion, and (5) cost reduction
 The factors of time, resource limitations and uncertainty
are key defining aspects of any investment project
 Notice that all listed decision types can be seen and
modeled as a constrained decision (optimization) problem

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01_Engineering-Economic-Decisions-2.ppt

  • 1. IE 342- Engineering Economic Analysis 2017 – 2018 Fall Semester 1
  • 2. IE 342 - Engineering Economic Analysis 2 Instructors Dr. Emre Uzun (Sec 1) E-mail: emreu@bilkent.edu.tr Offıce: EA 328 Tel: x3484 Office Hours: By appointment via email Okan Dükkancı (Sec 2) E-mail: okan.dukkanci@bilkent.edu.tr Offıce: EA 324 Tel: x3483 Office Hours: By appointment via email Teaching Assistants Halit Metehan Dilaver Eren Özbay
  • 3.  Required Text Book: Park, C. S., Contemporary Engineering Economics, 6th Ed., Prentice Hall, 2016 3
  • 4. Web Site/Email:  All announcements and course related material (e.g. Study sets, lecture notes) will be posted on the course web page.  Students are responsible for all the announcements made in class, or via e-mail.  It is the students’ responsibility to be aware of what has been covered in lectures, and to check the web page and e-mail accounts regularly and not miss any activity or information. 4
  • 5. Course Description  Concepts of time value of money.  Analysis of engineering decisions  Principles and methodology of comparing decision alternatives, such as various engineering designs, manufacturing equipment, or industrial projects.  Effects of depreciation, inflation and taxation on economic decisions, cost benefit analysis of public projects.  Dealing with uncertainty and risk; rational decision making when future outcomes are uncertain.  Replacement analysis. 5
  • 6. Grading  Midterm I - 22 %  Midterm II - 22 %  Final Exam - 30 %  4 Quizzes - 20 %  Class Participation - 6 %  Total - 100%  Study Sets (will not be graded) 6
  • 7. Policies  Attendance:  There may be random attendances taken which will count towards your class participation grade.  FZ Grade Policy:  No FZ this semester! 7
  • 8. Policies  Makeup Policy:  A make-up examination for the midterms will only be given under highly unusual circumstances (such as serious health or family problems). The student should contact the instructor as early as possible and provide the instructor with proper documentation (such as a medical note certified by Bilkent University’s Health Center).  There is no make-up for quizzes.  Classroom Policy:  No need to come to classroom if you are not in the mood for learning! 8
  • 9. Tentative Course Outline:  Ch.1: Engineering Economic Decisions  Ch.3: Time Value of Money  Ch.3: Economic Equivalence  Ch.3: Interest Formulas - Single Cash Flows  Ch.3: Interest Formulas – Equal Payment Series  Ch.3: Interest Formulas – Gradient Series  Ch.3: Unconventional Equivalence Calculations  Ch.4: Nominal and Effective Interest Rates  Ch.4: Equivalence Analysis using Effective Interest Rates  Ch.4: Debt Management  Ch.4: Investing in Financial Assets  Ch.5: Payback Period  Ch.5: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 9
  • 10.  Ch.5: Variations of Present Worth Analysis  Ch.5: Comparing Mutually Exclusive Alternatives  Ch.6: Annual Equivalent Worth Criterion  Ch.6: Applying Annual Worth Analysis  Ch.7: Rate of Return Analysis  Ch.7: Finding RoR  Ch.7: Internal Rate of Return Criterion  Ch.7: Incremental Analysis  Ch.9: Asset Depreciation  Ch.9: Depreciation Methods  Ch.9: Corporate Income Taxes  Ch.10: Developing Project Cash Flows  Ch.11: Meaning and Measure of Inflation  Ch.11: Equivalence Calculation under Inflation  Ch.11: Effects of Inflation of Project Cash Flows 10
  • 11.  Ch.12: Project Risk  Ch.12: Estimating Risk  Ch.12: Decision Tree Analysis  Ch.14: Replacement Analysis Fundamentals  Ch.14: Replacement Decision Models  Ch.15: Methods of Financing  Ch.15: Cost of Capital  Ch.15: Choice of MARR  Ch.16: Benefit-Cost Ratio 11
  • 12. 12 Engineering Economic Decisions Lecture 1 Presentation based on the book Chan S. Park, Contemporary Engineering Economics Chapter 1, © Pearson Education International Edition
  • 13. Getting a Car in the USA 13
  • 14. Getting a Car in the USA 14
  • 15. 15 A Simple Illustrative Example: Car to Finance – Saturn or Honda?  Recognize the decision problem  Collect all needed (relevant) information  Identify the set of feasible decision alternatives  Define the key objectives and constraints  Select the best possible and implementable decision alternative  Need to lease a car  Gather technical and financial data  Select cars to consider  Wanted: small cash outlay, safety, good performance, aesthetics,…  Choice between Saturn and Honda (or others)  Select a car (i.e., Honda, Saturn or another brand)
  • 16. 16 Large-Scale Engineering Projects These typically  require a large sum of investment  can be very risky  take a long time to see the financial outcomes  lead to revenue and cost streams that are difficult to predict All the above aspects (and some others not listed here) point towards the importance of EEA
  • 17. 17 Types of Strategic Engineering Economic Decisions in the Manufacturing Sector  Service Improvement  Equipment and Process Selection  Equipment Replacement  New Product and Product Expansion  Cost reduction or profit maximization can be seen as generic (common, eventual) objectives  In the most general sense, we have to make decisions under resource constraints, and in presence of uncertainty – not only in the EEA context
  • 18. 18 The Four Fundamental Principles of Engineering Economics  1: An instant dollar is worth more than a distant dollar…  2: Only the relative (pair-wise) difference among the considered alternatives counts…  3: Marginal revenue must exceed marginal cost, in order to carry out a profitable increase of operations  4: Additional risk is not taken without an expected additional return of suitable magnitude
  • 19. 19 Principle 1 An instant dollar is worth more than a distant dollar… Today 6 months later
  • 20. 20 Principle 2 Only the cost (resource) difference among alternatives counts Option Monthly Fuel Cost Monthly Maintenance Cash paid at signing (cash outlay ) Monthly payment Salvage Value at end of year 3 Buy $960 $550 $6,500 $350 $9,000 Lease $960 $550 $2,400 $550 0 The data shown in the green fields are irrelevant items for decision making, since their financial impact is identical in both cases
  • 21. 21 Principle 3 Marginal (unit) revenue has to exceed marginal cost, in order to increase production Manufacturing cost Sales revenue Marginal revenue Marginal cost 1 unit 1 unit
  • 22. 22 Principle 4 Additional risk is not taken without a suitable expected additional return Investment Class Potential Risk Expected Return Savings account (cash) Lowest 1.5% Bond (debt) Moderate 4.8% Stock (equity) Highest 11.5% A simple illustrative example. Note that all investments imply some risk: portfolio management is a key issue in finance
  • 23. 23 Summary  The term engineering economic decision refers to any investment or other decision related to an engineering project  The five main types of engineering economic decisions are (1) service improvement, (2) equipment and process selection, (3) equipment replacement, (4) new product and product expansion, and (5) cost reduction  The factors of time, resource limitations and uncertainty are key defining aspects of any investment project  Notice that all listed decision types can be seen and modeled as a constrained decision (optimization) problem