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The future of work
A journey to 2022
www.pwc.com/humancapital
10,000 people in China,
India, Germany, the UK and the US
give their views on the future of work
and what it means for them
66%see the future of work as
a world full of possibility and believe
they will be successful
53% think technological
breakthroughs will transform the way
people work over the next 5 – 10 years
A journey to 2022 2
Three worlds of work 4
The Blue World – corporate is king 10
The Green World – companies care 14
The Orange World – small is beautiful 18
A summary of people management
characteristics in 2022
22
Are you ready? 24
Appendix 26
Contacts 27
Contents
1The future of work – A journey to 2022
Foreword
So how are these developments going to
affect the talent your business needs? How
can you attract, retain and motivate them?
How is HR going to change as a result?’
The projections in this report build on the
work started in 2007 by a team from PwC
and the James Martin Institute for Science
and Civilisation at the Said Business School
in Oxford, who came together to develop a
series of scenarios for the future of people
management. The result was three ‘worlds
of work’, which provide a lens through
which to examine how organisations might
operate in the future.
In this report, we look to 2022 and consider
how the characteristics of these three
worlds of work are likely to be shaped
by the changes coming up over the next
eight years. This includes setting out
the recruitment, reward and employee
engagement strategies that are likely to
be most relevant as these worlds evolve,
and what this means for businesses,
workforces and HR.
This report draws on a specially
commissioned survey of 10,000 people in
China, India, Germany, the UK and the US,
who told us how they think the workplace
will evolve and how this will affect their
employment prospects and future working
lives. Further input comes from a survey
of almost 500 HR professionals across
the world, who share their insights on
how they’re preparing for the changes
ahead. Rohit Talwar, Global Futurist and
the CEO of Fast Future Research, has also
contributed his cutting-edge thinking to
this study. Our thanks to all those who
kindly shared their perspectives.
No exploration of the future of work could
ever be definitive. Indeed, one of the
defining characteristics of our age is its
ability to surprise and confound. However,
while things happen that we cannot predict,
we can still be prepared.
Michael Rendell
Head of Human Capital Consulting, PwC
Disruptive innovations are creating new industries and business models, and destroying old ones. New
technologies, data analytics and social networks are having a huge impact on how people communicate,
collaborate and work. As generations collide, workforces become more diverse and people work longer; traditional
career models may soon be a thing of the past. Many of the roles and job titles of tomorrow will be ones we’ve not
even thought of yet.
2 PwC
A journey to 2022
1 Urban population growth, World Health Organisation (http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_population_growth_text/en/)
2 Economist, 10.03.12
3 Guardian, 31.10.11
4 Reuters, 30 April 2013
5 Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2013–2018, Cisco, 05.02.14
2006
Launch of Twitter
2007
Apple launches the
iPhone
2008
Lehman Brothers
files for bankruptcy
2009
Urban dwellers
become a majority of
the global population
for the first time1
2010
China overtakes the
US as world’s largest
manufacturer2
2011
Global population
passes 7 billion3
2012
Impact of resource
scarcity comes
into sharp focus as
prolonged droughts
threaten blackouts in
Texas (power plants
are the largest users
of water in the US)4
2013
Number of
mobile devices
and connections
surpasses the
number of people on
the planet5
3The future of work – A journey to 2022
2018
Analysts attend
presentation by
Fortune 500 Chief
Performance
Officer, who heads
a combined Finance
and HR function
2015
Worker in Germany
says the “best is
yet to come” after
celebrating 75 years’
service with the
same firm
2019
Doctor in China
carries out ‘remote’
surgery on patient
in Ghana
2022
World’s first fully
automated and
robot-served
hotel opens
2017
Assembly workers
in factory in Hanoi
start wearing
sensors to gauge
concentration, work
rate and mood
2021
Licences granted for
driverless cars
2016
$10 tablet
computer comes on
to the market
2020
Rioting sweeps
across university
campuses as
students lose
patience with
lack of job
opportunities
4 PwC
Three worlds of work
Our scenario analysis
sees the expectations
of organisations and
the aspirations of
the people who want
to work for them
diverging into three
distinct ‘worlds’ of
work: Blue, Green
and Orange.
Blue World Green World
5The future of work – A journey to 2022
Orange World
A major shift in management
practices to accommodate a rapidly
changing world of work and the
information workers that inhabit
this world [will have the single
biggest impact on the way we work
over the next 10 years]
Head of Talent, Information
Technology Sector, South Africa
6 PwC
Tremendous forces are radically reshaping
the world of work. Economic shifts are
redistributing power, wealth, competition
and opportunity around the globe.
Disruptive innovations, radical thinking,
new business models and resource
scarcity are impacting every sector.
Businesses across the world are beginning
to understand that they need a clear and
meaningful purpose, and mandate for the
decade ahead if they are to attract and
retain employees, customers and partners.
Figure 1 sets out the trends people around
the world believe will transform the way
people work over the next 5 – 10 years.
It is important to reflect that the scale of
expected change is not unprecedented.
However, what is unique is the
pervasive nature of the change and its
accelerating pace.
Three worlds of work
At the beginning of the century,
Ray Kurzweil, Futurist and Chief
Engineer at Google, predicted that
20,000 years of progress would
be crammed into the next 100.1
If
anything, progress and change have
accelerated even faster than that.
1 The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 07.03.01 (http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns)
PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based in China, Germany,
India, the UK and the US
Figure 1: What will transform the way people work over the next 5 – 10 years?
Technology breakthroughs
Resource scarcity and climate change
Shifts in global economic power
Demographic shifts
Rapid urbanisation
None of these
Don’t know/not sure
53%
39%
36%
33%
26%
4%
13%
Managing complexity as well as ambiguity [will have the
single biggest impact on the way we work over the next
10 years]
Head of HR. Energy, Utilities and Mining, India
7The future of work – A journey to 2022
Competing forces
What cuts across these developments are
the push and pull of individualism versus
collectivism and corporate integration
versus business fragmentation. The
competition between these forces is
creating what we’ve identified as three
scenarios (‘worlds’) for the future of work:
• Large corporates turning into mini-
states and taking on a prominent role in
society.
• Specialisation creating the rise of
collaborative networks.
• The social and environmental agenda
forcing fundamental changes to
business strategy.
Most organisations are likely to be a mix
of all three worlds of work. As we explore
in this report, it’s therefore useful to think
about where your organisation might
be positioned within these scenarios,
the trade-offs this entails and what
implications this has for your people
management strategy.
Evolving priorities
The emergence of these three worlds is
going to create fresh challenges for HR.
Organisations currently grapple with the
realities of skills shortages, managing
people through change and creating an
effective workforce. By 2022, the radical
change in business models will mean that
companies will be facing further issues
such as:
• The need to create ever more
sophisticated people measurement
techniques to monitor and control
performance and productivity.
• Increasing importance of social capital
and relationships as the drivers of
business success.
• The boundary between work and
personal life disappearing as companies
assume greater responsibility for the
social welfare of their employees.
Organisations will have to be
prepared to undergo new learning
cycles and adapt themselves to
these new challenges, not only to
survive, but to succeed.
Head of HR, Healthcare, India
Changing role of HR
HR has been perceived by many as a
passive, service-oriented function.
But given the demands of tomorrow’s
workplace and business environment, we
believe HR is at a crossroads and will go
one of three ways:
• With a proactive mindset and focused
on business strategy, HR will take on a
new wider people remit incorporating
and influencing many other aspects of
the business.
• The function will become the driver
of the corporate social responsibility
agenda within the organisation.
• The function will be seen as
transactional and almost entirely
outsourced.
In the coming sections of this report, we
explore the nature of these three worlds,
what’s shaping them and how this will
affect HR priorities, organisational design
and wider business strategies.
8 PwC
FragmentationIntegration
The
Orange
World
The
Green
World
The
Blue
World
Collectivism Individualism
Companies begin
to break down
into collaboration
networks of smaller
organisations;
specialisation
dominates the world
economy
Big company
capitalism rules as
organisations continue
to grow bigger and
individual preferences
trump beliefs about
social responsibility
Social responsibility
dominates the
corporate agenda
with concerns
about demographic
changes, climate
and sustainability
becoming the key
drivers of business
Small is beautiful
Corporate is kingCompanies care
Three worlds of work
9The future of work – A journey to 2022
There will be a major shift away from the
thinking that we learn one profession, have one
job and stay in it for decades.
Female, voluntary worker (aged 33 – 47),
Germany.
10 PwC
Where big company
capitalism reigns supreme
The globalisers take centre stage, consumer
preferences dominate, a corporate career
separates the haves from the have-nots.
The Blue World – corporate is king
Driving goal
Profit, growth and
market leadership.
How to compete
Scale is the crucial
differentiator. It allows
these mega-corporations
to reach out across the
globe and compete for
talent and resources –
constantly innovating
and keeping pace with
customer demands.
Employee value
proposition
(the ‘deal’)
Job security and
long-term service with an
organisation in return for
employee commitment and
flexibility.
11The future of work – A journey to 2022
The most important
thing in a job for 44% of
people around the world is
job security.
44%
The attractions include high rewards for
high-flyers. This is a chance to be one of the
‘haves’ in a world where stable employment
is less and less the norm.
Employees also have access to the
pensions, health and other benefits that
their host societies may not provide or be
scaling back.
Metrics and data are used to drive business
performance through complex staff
segmentation strategies which identify
thousands of skills sets – creating precision
around sourcing the right candidates
for the right tasks, as well as on-the-job
performance measurement and assessment.
of people around the world
believe that technology will
improve their job prospects.
64%
Relentless pressure to perform
In the Blue World, big company capitalism
reigns supreme. Consumer preferences
and profit margins dominate in a model
built around flexibility, efficiency and
speed to market. The relentless pressure
on performance isn’t just driven by
competition from peers, but also aggressive
new entrants looking to lead innovation and
undercut existing players. Blue firms follow
the money and go wherever the opportunity
is – their operating model enables them
to survive and thrive in both stable and
volatile economic conditions alike.
The challenges include how to integrate
talent from different markets into the
overall corporate culture. The need to lead
innovation and open up new opportunities
will also see them investing heavily in R&D
and acquiring smaller start-ups.
How to cater for flexibility with the right amount of trust
and technological support to still exceed the expectations
of clients [will have the single biggest impact on the way we
work over the next ten years]
Human Resource Director, Business Services, Kenya
PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population
based in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US
12 PwC
31%
of HR professionals are
gearing their talent
strategies to pushing back
the borders of innovation
and possibility, employing
only the best and offering
long-term job security
and reward.
The Blue World of 2022
People policies seek to lock in talent, but the
top talent is still hard to attract and retain;
many senior executives use personal agents
to seek out the best deals.
The data profiling that drives customer
management will increasingly be replicated
among employees as screening and
monitoring move to a new level. Sensors
check their location, performance and
health. The monitoring may even stretch
into their private lives in an extension of
today’s drug tests. Periodic health screening
gives way to real-time monitoring of
health, with proactive health guidance and
treatment to enable staff to perform more
efficiently, reduce sick leave and work for
more years before needing to retire.
Blue firms have a network of relationships
with third-party research centres,
innovation firms and universities through
which they fund and source new product
and process ideas. They use mechanisms
such as idea sourcing platforms, challenge
contests and seeding of venture funds
and incubators to bring a constant flow of
opportunity. While some of the ideas make
it into core products and processes, many
are sold on or licensed to create a self-
funding innovation model.
Leadership teams have a high focus on the
evolution of the corporate culture, with
rigorous recruitment processes to ensure
new employees fit the corporate ideal. New
staff are subject to compulsory corporate
culture learning and development
programmes.
The ‘contract’ with employees is defined
by the handing over of data (e.g. health,
performance, possibly even private life) in
return for job security. More than 30% of
the participants in our global survey would
be happy for their employers to have access
to their personal data. Younger people
tend to be more open to this than older
generations, so this kind of monitoring
could become routine in the years to come.
3 out of 10
of the participants in our global survey would
be happy for their employers to have access to
their personal data.
The speed of technological progress, such as the popularity
of the ‘Internet of Things’, will have a big impact on the way
we work over the next ten years.
Male, in permanent employment (aged 33 – 47), China
PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from across the world
13The future of work – A journey to 2022
Changing organisational
and HR demands
The management of people within the
Blue World is a hard business discipline,
akin to finance within this scenario. In
addition to identifying and delivering the
talent needed to meet business objectives,
successful HR teams are developing the
ever more sophisticated measurement
and management techniques needed to
ensure that the workforce meets exacting
performance targets.
The HR function evolves into a people and
performance unit, which is led by the Chief
People Officer (CPO), who is a powerful
and influential figure within the leadership
team of the organisation.
Those responsible for people management
increasingly need financial, analytical,
marketing and risk management skills
to measure the impact of human talent
on their organisation and retain the
best people.
Talent is managed alongside artificial
intelligence in a hybrid model. HR will
develop real-time response to data feeds
as it evolves into a key part of the wider
performance team.
Questions for HR
How can you develop the more sophisticated human
capital metrics needed to constantly improve
performance?
How do you develop a broader resource optimisation
approach in which machines, artificial intelligence
and human beings work side by side?
Where is the line between performance monitoring
and personal space and how can you make sure the
organisation stays within it?
?
Reward models include a strong
performance-related element. A key
challenge for HR is convincing employees
that the ‘price’ of data release and close
monitoring is worth paying. This includes
developing the right balance between
the benefits (e.g. job security or health
protection) and productivity gains of this
personal data. It also includes building trust
through codes of conduct about how data is
acquired, used and shared.
The machine will become fully intelligent and
have the ability to think independently.
Male, in permanent employment
(aged 48 – 66), UK
14 PwC
Where consumers and employees
force change
Companies develop a powerful social conscience and green
sense of responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and
environmental credentials as a top priority. Society and
business see their agendas align.
The Green World – companies care
Driving goal
Socially and environmentally
beneficial good.
How to compete
A social and environmental
conscience is demanded by
customers and staff right
through the organisation
and its supply chain. The
organisation must get it right in
order to survive and compete.
Employee value
proposition (the ‘deal’)
Ethical values and work – life
balance in return for loyalty
towards an organisation that
does right by its employees.
15The future of work – A journey to 2022
Brands can rise and fall on the basis
of perceived green credentials, with
government imposed corporate fines for
bad behaviour in this highly regulated
world. Corporate responsibility is not
an altruistic nice to have, but a business
imperative. Employees are expected to
uphold corporate values and targets around
the green agenda.
The need to travel to meet clients and
colleagues is replaced with technological
solutions, which reduce the need for
face-to-face contact. Employees’ carbon
footprint is carefully monitored and built
into performance targets.
As society gravitates towards more
sustainable living, the HR function
is forced to embrace sustainability
and corporate responsibility as part
of its people engagement and talent
management agendas.
of people around the
world want to work for an
organisation with a powerful
social conscience.1
65%
of HR professionals are
building their talent
strategies around their
organisations’ social and
environmental conscience,
which is intrinsic to the
brand and matches the
values and beliefs of
their people.2
Rethinking values and goals
In the Green World, companies take
the lead in developing a strong social
conscience and sense of environmental
responsibility. They are open, trusting,
collaborative learning organisations and
see themselves playing an important role in
supporting and developing their employees
and local communities. Companies have
strong control over their supplier networks
to ensure that corporate ethical values
are upheld across the supply chain, and are
able to troubleshoot when things go wrong.
In turn, the combination of ethical values,
support for the real economy and family-
friendly hours is an opportunity to create a
new employee value proposition that isn’t
solely reliant on pay.
36%
1 PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based
in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US
2 PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from across the world
16 PwC
While our survey confirms that the
opportunity to work for organisations
that share their values and beliefs is
attractive to many of the best and brightest
candidates, the overall incentive package
is still going to be important. Financial
rewards can be augmented by the chance
to take up secondments on social and
environmental projects.
Further challenges include how to ensure
that strict compliance with laws and
standards doesn’t inhibit flexibility and
enterprise. In a caring organisation, there
is also the question of how to keep people
in employment if there is a downturn in the
market or wider economy. Working closely
with employees and other stakeholders, HR
will be expected to come up with innovative
solutions to these challenges.
Questions for HR
How can you turn your values
into a compelling element of your
employer brand?
Is your function set up to work with
people who want a greater say in
designing their working responsibilities
and rewards?
How can you monitor the desired ethics
and behaviour most effectively?
?
The Green World of 2022
Moves towards the Green World are being
bolstered by the need to use resources
in smarter and more efficient ways.
The disillusionment that has followed
in the wake of the financial crisis and
public anger over some corporations’
environmental, social and tax policies is
forcing ever more companies and workers
to question the very nature and purpose of
their business.
Customers look to Green firms to introduce
innovative ideas and practices and
influence their own behaviour – often
setting challenges around ways of working
which can be transferred back into the
customer’s own environment. Customers
are proud to support Green firms and the
broader societal goals they are pursuing.
Technology and the internet play a critical
role in providing total transparency of the
firm’s environmental, social and ethical
impact and performance across all of
its activities.
A distinctive feature of Green firms is the
practice of co-creation – engaging with
customers, partners, external agents and
the local community to create new products
and services that benefit the customer, the
company and the broader community
Diversity and work – life balance are viewed
as sources of strength and competitive
advantage. Staff are encouraged to forge
links with the community and to take part
in socially useful projects.
Rather than basic performance, the
emphasis is on using data to promote
broader objectives, such as health and
well-being, professional development,
flexible working and volunteering. The
development of environmental best practice
is a key objective for employees, who are
encouraged to create new and interactive
ways to share ideas and encourage people
to take them up.
Changing organisational and
HR demands
The CEO drives the people strategy for the
organisation, believing that the people
in the organisation and their behaviours
and role in society have a direct link to the
organisation’s success or failure.
Green firm pioneers avoid hierarchy and
opt for flexible, flat and fluid organisational
structures. Everyone in a Green firm has
the opportunity to participate in decision-
making and feels responsibility for the
organisation’s success.
HR and corporate social responsibility fuse
as organisations embrace sustainability and
support for socially valuable ‘good growth’.
HR helps to foster close collaboration
between employer and employee in
designing jobs around aspirations and
lifestyles. Reward models will be highly
flexible as part of this personalised design.
The need for economic and environmental
efficiency [will have the single biggest impact on
the way we work over the next ten years]
Male, self-employed (aged 48 – 66), UK
17The future of work – A journey to 2022
Crowded urban centres will necessitate
‘anywhere working’ aided by technology.
VP Human Resources, Financial
Services, USA
Greater emphasis on work – life balance – more
employees wanting work that fits around their
life rather than focusing on a specific career path
[will have the single biggest impact on the way we
work over the next ten years]
Human Resources Manager, Engineering
and Construction, Australia
18 PwC
The Orange World – small is beautiful
Where big is bad, for business, for
people and for the environment
Global businesses fragment. Technology empowers a
low impact, high-tech business model. Networks prosper
while large companies decline.
Driving goal
Maximising flexibility while
minimising fixed costs.
How to compete
Embracing the rise of the
portfolio career, hiring a
diverse mix of people on an
affordable, ad hoc basis.
Employee value
proposition (the ‘deal’)
Flexibility, autonomy and
varied challenges in return
for working on a short-term
contractual basis.
19The future of work – A journey to 2022
The chance to take control
of their career, what they
do and when is what 29%
of people around the world
most want from a job.1
29%
Seeking out fresh opportunities
In the Orange World organisations
fragment into looser networks of
autonomous, often specialised operations.
Technology helps to bring these networks
together, often on a task-by-task basis, with
social media heightening the connectivity
upon which this world depends.
Supply chains are built from complex,
organic associations of specialist providers,
varying greatly from region to region
and market to market. Looser, less tightly
regulated clusters of companies are seen to
work more effectively than their larger and
potentially more unwieldy counterparts.
Moves towards the Orange World have been
bolstered by the rise of the portfolio career.
Many people have come to realise that they
could enjoy more flexibility and varied
challenges by working freelance or as a
contractor for a number of organisations.
The Orange World desire for autonomy is
strongest in China, especially among young
people, indicating a generational shift
towards greater freedom, entrepreneurship
and specialist skills in this rapidly evolving
economy. Over half of participants in China
believe that traditional employment won’t
be around in the future. Instead, people will
have their own ‘brands’ and sell their skills
to those who need them. The belief that
the future lies in a contingent model is also
strong among graduates, though people
with fewer qualifications anticipate much
less change in their working arrangements.
of HR professionals expect at
least 20% of their workforce
to be made up of contractors
or temporary workers
by 2022.2
46%
People’s increasing need for diversified careers, mobility and
flexibility [will have the single biggest impact on the way we
work over the next ten years]
Human Resources Manager, Asset Management,
South Africa
1 PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based
in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US
2 PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from across the world
Contract employment will be king. Full-time
jobs will be become obsolete.
Male, retired (aged 48 – 66), US
20 PwC
Workers are categorised and rewarded
for having specialist expertise, which will
create increased demand for people to have
a personal stake in the organisation’s or
project’s success. Options such as project
delivery-related bonuses are therefore
going to become more common.
A key challenge is ensuring that the people
being hired genuinely have the expertise
required or claimed. This demands a
combination of effective verification and
watertight contractual agreements, possibly
with penalties for poor and non-delivery.
It’s also going to require a high degree of
relationship building and business trust.
Many contractors and partners will adopt
‘eBay-style’ ratings of past performance to
help land the next contract.
Questions for HR
How can you identify and attract the
contract staff needed to meet different
objectives?
How can you verify the authenticity of
the data being used to select staff and
associates?
How do you effectively manage non-
owned resource?
?
The Orange World
of 2022
Big business will be outflanked by a
vibrant, innovative and entrepreneurial
middle market. A core team embodies the
philosophy and values of the company. The
rest come in and out on a project-by-project
basis. Some firms compete on quality
and specialisation, while others offer
commoditised price-dependent support.
Telepresence and virtual solutions allow
for greater remote working and extended
global networks.
Efficient systems and processes are the key
to success of Orange companies. Maximum
operational flexibility, lean staffing models,
collaborative partnerships and minimal
fixed costs are critical enablers of Orange
firms. These companies make extensive
use of technology to run their businesses,
coordinate a largely external workforce
and support their relationships with third
parties. They take advantage of disruptive
technology when appropriate and stay
abreast of new developments to ensure they
are up to speed in their sector.
The development of networks and
relationships with contingent staff
is critical. Technology tracks their
applicability, location and availability.
Changing organisational and
HR demands
HR manages bidding processes as part
of an open market for assignments in
which people from within and outside
the organisation apply and compete for
postings and projects.
Recruitment becomes largely a sourcing
function, which is often merged with
the management of the huge number of
contracts and price agreements required
for each company’s network of partner
organisations.
Many companies will be too small to have
HR hiring teams and will look to technology
or dedicated agents to supply needs.
People are more likely to see themselves as
members of a particular skill or professional
network than as an employee of a
particular company.
Orange pioneers will give a new lease of
life to professional guilds, associations and
trade bodies – relying on them for training,
development and innovation.
People are more likely to see themselves as
members of a particular skill or professional
network than as an employee of a
specific company.
21The future of work – A journey to 2022
31%
of HR professionals are building their talent
strategies around the rise of the portfolio
career, hiring a diverse mix of people on an
affordable, ad hoc basis.2
2 out of 5
People around the world believe that
traditional employment won’t be around
in the future. Instead, people will have their
own ‘brands’ and sell their skills to those
who need them.1
Managing a diverse, heavily matrixed and virtual
organisation [will have the single biggest impact on the
way we work over the next ten years]
Vice-President for Human Resources, Retail and
Consumer, Switzerland
1 PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general
population based in China, Germany, India, the
UK and the US
2 PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from
across the world
22 PwC
A summary of people management
characteristics in 2022
Corporate is king:
Blue World
Companies care:
Green World
Small is beautiful:
Orange World
How organisations source
and attract talent
Organisations compete to find and
secure the best talent available and
use extensive search and evaluation
methods to find the stars of tomorrow.
Talent is attracted by the potential for
high earnings, job security and status.
Green World companies seek like-
minded individuals to extend their
corporate family, taking great care
to only select talent with the right
behaviours and attitudes.
Talent is attracted to Green World
brands, their values and their culture.
Technology provides the solution to
finding and evaluating contractors as
suppliers of key skills. Commercial
terms are offered for a specific task.
A company’s reputation within networks
and online recruitment markets is
crucial in attracting talent.
Reward and performance Reward is based on finely tuned
performance metrics.
Organisations focus on total reward,
which recognises corporate citizenship
and good behaviours alongside
performance.
Contract-based pay for projects is the
norm. Results-based or buy-in contracts
are also common. Negotiation skills
are vital.
Learning and
development's role
Individuals build skills and experience
to adapt to changing business needs.
Learning and development is closely
aligned to objectives and performance
measures.
Personal and professional development
fuse in areas such as volunteering.
Individuals develop their own skills.
Professional guilds will re-emerge and
certify skills alongside online references
and performance rankings.
The role of HR HR uses advanced analytics to predict
future talent demands and to measure
and anticipate performance and
retention issues.
HR acts as guardian of the brand. There
is a strong focus on creating the right
culture and behaviours and on guarding
against sustainability and reputational
risk across the supply chain.
HR focuses on sourcing contractors and
negotiating the contracts, along with
performance management and project
economics.
Role of technology in
managing people
Sensors and data analytics to measure
and optimise performance.
Helping people to build work into their
lives and minimise their environmental
impact.
Creating virtual collaboration.
23The future of work – A journey to 2022
24 PwC
Are you ready?
The effectiveness with which your
organisation plans people management
for the long-term will be critical to its
long-term viability, ensuring you have
the right people, with the right skills, in
the right places to realise your evolving
goals. Think too much in the short-term
and you may find yourself on the back
foot, unable to catch up with sudden
shifts in your marketplace.
Forward-looking HR teams are already
considering a range of different scenarios
for the future as part of their business
planning (see Figure 2), but few are taking
a sufficiently longer term view to deal
with them.
PwC survey of 480 HR Professionals from across the world.
Figure 2: Planning ahead – How far does HR in your organisation look into the future?
Short-term:
The future is moving so fast
that it is very hard to predict
how things will change
Medium-term:
I anticipate a lot of change and
am building possible future
scenarios into our current
talent pipelines
Long-term: I am actively
considering the evolving and multiple
visions of the future as part of our
long-term business planning
56%
21%
24%
Most of the HR professionals in our survey
don’t believe they’re prepared for meeting
the needs of a workforce that demands
more freedom, autonomy and flexibility.
Only around 20% report that they’re
ready to embrace the role of technology
and automation in replacing knowledge
workers, even though most recognise this is
something they should consider.
25The future of work – A journey to 2022
Figure 3: How can organisations plan for the future of people management?
Which world are you heading
towards: Blue, Green, Orange or
something else entirely?
What are the scenarios for your
organisation?
How will your organisation need
to change...resourcing, talent
management, employee engagement,
reward, learning and development...
what else?
As Figure 3 outlines, our three worlds can
provide a starting point for judging the
opportunities, risks and evolving demands
on HR across different areas of your
organisation. But no one model will prevail
and even within them, it will be important
to manage competing demands.
How will your organisation’s culture
respond to an environment of constant
change? What will be the role of
leadership? What behaviours will
be most valuable to the organisation
and how will the organisation need
to communicate with and engage all
employees?
What do you need to do to get there?
Better understand where you are now
through use of evaluation techniques,
benchmarking and measurement.
26 PwC
So what does the future hold for HR?
In the Blue World, it will be at the centre of a hugely influential
metric-driven strategy and performance function. In the Orange
World, it is set to have a much narrower recruitment and tendering
role, with many other aspects of the function outsourced. In
the Green World, HR’s role could be much more diffuse, helping
employees to shape their work around their values and outside lives.
Whatever path your function follows, it’s going to look very
different in 2022.
27The future of work – A journey to 2022
Blue World Green World Orange World
28 PwC
Appendix
Global forces
Business fragmentation
Globalis
ation
Technologyc
onrolsme
Reversegl
obalisation I controlt
echnology
Collectivism
Corporate integration
Individualism
The free-market trend prevails as
trade barriers disappear
Focus on individual wants;
a response to the infinite choices
available to consumers
A yearning for the human touch
minimises the personal impact of
technology on consumers
BIg business rules all
Protectionist policies begin to rebuild
barriers to free movement of people
and goods
The common good prevails over
personal preference, e.g. collective
responsibility for the environment
over individual interest
Allowing technology into almost
every part of a person’s life
The potential break-up of large
businesses and the risk of
collaboration networksCreating the three worlds
We worked with the James Martin
Institute to think about the factors that
were affecting business and those that we
believed would grow in importance in the
future. We mapped these around a matrix
and developed a number of scenarios:
plausible futures around each.
We started our research by examining the
forces that were affecting global business
and were likely to have significant impact
on the future. While there are many social,
environmental, religious and demographic
factors that have a significant influence,
we chose to focus on the global forces
that we feel have the greatest impact on
people management.
29The future of work – A journey to 2022
Contacts
Michael Rendell
Human Resource Services
Global Network Leader
+44 20 7212 4945
michael.g.rendell@uk.pwc.com
Justine Brown
Global marketing & business development,
Human resources services
+44 113 289 4423
justine.brown@uk.pwc.com
North America
Scott Olsen
+1 646 471 0651
scott.n.olsen@us.pwc.com
Bhushan Sethi
+1 646 471 2377
bhushan.sethi@us.pwc.com
Western Europe
Jon Andrews
+44 20 7804 9000
jon.andrews@uk.pwc.com
Peter De Bley
+32 2 7104321
peter.de.bley@be.pwc.com
Charles Donkor
+41 58 792 4554
charles.donkor@ch.pwc.com
Till Lohman
+49 40 6378-8835
till.r.lohmann@de.pwc.com
Central & Eastern Europe
Zsolt Szelecki
+44 20 7804 1710
szelecki.zsolt@uk.pwc.com
Middle East
David Suarez
+971 4304 3981
david.suarez@ae.pwc.com
China/Hong Kong
Mandy Kwok
+852 2289 3900
mandy.kwok@hk.pwc.com
Lukia Xing
+86 (10) 6533 7018
lukia.xing@cn.pwc.com
Singapore
Alywin Teh
+65 62367268
alywin.teh@sg.pwc.com
India
Padmaja Alaganandan
+91 80 4079 4001
padmaja.alaganandan@in.pwc.com
Australia
Jon Williams
+61 (2) 8266 2402
jon.williams@au.pwc.com
South and Central America
Joao Lins
+55 11 3674 3536
joao.lins@br.pwc.com
Africa
Gerald Seegers
+27 (11) 797 4560
gerald.seegers@za.pwc.com
www.pwc.com/humancapital
PwC helps organisations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 184,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out
more by visiting us at www.pwc.com.
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or
warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PwC does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone
else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.
© 2014 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
Design Services 28665 (05/14).

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PWC Report on the Future of Work:

  • 1. The future of work A journey to 2022 www.pwc.com/humancapital 10,000 people in China, India, Germany, the UK and the US give their views on the future of work and what it means for them 66%see the future of work as a world full of possibility and believe they will be successful 53% think technological breakthroughs will transform the way people work over the next 5 – 10 years
  • 2. A journey to 2022 2 Three worlds of work 4 The Blue World – corporate is king 10 The Green World – companies care 14 The Orange World – small is beautiful 18 A summary of people management characteristics in 2022 22 Are you ready? 24 Appendix 26 Contacts 27 Contents
  • 3. 1The future of work – A journey to 2022 Foreword So how are these developments going to affect the talent your business needs? How can you attract, retain and motivate them? How is HR going to change as a result?’ The projections in this report build on the work started in 2007 by a team from PwC and the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilisation at the Said Business School in Oxford, who came together to develop a series of scenarios for the future of people management. The result was three ‘worlds of work’, which provide a lens through which to examine how organisations might operate in the future. In this report, we look to 2022 and consider how the characteristics of these three worlds of work are likely to be shaped by the changes coming up over the next eight years. This includes setting out the recruitment, reward and employee engagement strategies that are likely to be most relevant as these worlds evolve, and what this means for businesses, workforces and HR. This report draws on a specially commissioned survey of 10,000 people in China, India, Germany, the UK and the US, who told us how they think the workplace will evolve and how this will affect their employment prospects and future working lives. Further input comes from a survey of almost 500 HR professionals across the world, who share their insights on how they’re preparing for the changes ahead. Rohit Talwar, Global Futurist and the CEO of Fast Future Research, has also contributed his cutting-edge thinking to this study. Our thanks to all those who kindly shared their perspectives. No exploration of the future of work could ever be definitive. Indeed, one of the defining characteristics of our age is its ability to surprise and confound. However, while things happen that we cannot predict, we can still be prepared. Michael Rendell Head of Human Capital Consulting, PwC Disruptive innovations are creating new industries and business models, and destroying old ones. New technologies, data analytics and social networks are having a huge impact on how people communicate, collaborate and work. As generations collide, workforces become more diverse and people work longer; traditional career models may soon be a thing of the past. Many of the roles and job titles of tomorrow will be ones we’ve not even thought of yet.
  • 4. 2 PwC A journey to 2022 1 Urban population growth, World Health Organisation (http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_population_growth_text/en/) 2 Economist, 10.03.12 3 Guardian, 31.10.11 4 Reuters, 30 April 2013 5 Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2013–2018, Cisco, 05.02.14 2006 Launch of Twitter 2007 Apple launches the iPhone 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy 2009 Urban dwellers become a majority of the global population for the first time1 2010 China overtakes the US as world’s largest manufacturer2 2011 Global population passes 7 billion3 2012 Impact of resource scarcity comes into sharp focus as prolonged droughts threaten blackouts in Texas (power plants are the largest users of water in the US)4 2013 Number of mobile devices and connections surpasses the number of people on the planet5
  • 5. 3The future of work – A journey to 2022 2018 Analysts attend presentation by Fortune 500 Chief Performance Officer, who heads a combined Finance and HR function 2015 Worker in Germany says the “best is yet to come” after celebrating 75 years’ service with the same firm 2019 Doctor in China carries out ‘remote’ surgery on patient in Ghana 2022 World’s first fully automated and robot-served hotel opens 2017 Assembly workers in factory in Hanoi start wearing sensors to gauge concentration, work rate and mood 2021 Licences granted for driverless cars 2016 $10 tablet computer comes on to the market 2020 Rioting sweeps across university campuses as students lose patience with lack of job opportunities
  • 6. 4 PwC Three worlds of work Our scenario analysis sees the expectations of organisations and the aspirations of the people who want to work for them diverging into three distinct ‘worlds’ of work: Blue, Green and Orange. Blue World Green World
  • 7. 5The future of work – A journey to 2022 Orange World A major shift in management practices to accommodate a rapidly changing world of work and the information workers that inhabit this world [will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next 10 years] Head of Talent, Information Technology Sector, South Africa
  • 8. 6 PwC Tremendous forces are radically reshaping the world of work. Economic shifts are redistributing power, wealth, competition and opportunity around the globe. Disruptive innovations, radical thinking, new business models and resource scarcity are impacting every sector. Businesses across the world are beginning to understand that they need a clear and meaningful purpose, and mandate for the decade ahead if they are to attract and retain employees, customers and partners. Figure 1 sets out the trends people around the world believe will transform the way people work over the next 5 – 10 years. It is important to reflect that the scale of expected change is not unprecedented. However, what is unique is the pervasive nature of the change and its accelerating pace. Three worlds of work At the beginning of the century, Ray Kurzweil, Futurist and Chief Engineer at Google, predicted that 20,000 years of progress would be crammed into the next 100.1 If anything, progress and change have accelerated even faster than that. 1 The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 07.03.01 (http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns) PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US Figure 1: What will transform the way people work over the next 5 – 10 years? Technology breakthroughs Resource scarcity and climate change Shifts in global economic power Demographic shifts Rapid urbanisation None of these Don’t know/not sure 53% 39% 36% 33% 26% 4% 13% Managing complexity as well as ambiguity [will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next 10 years] Head of HR. Energy, Utilities and Mining, India
  • 9. 7The future of work – A journey to 2022 Competing forces What cuts across these developments are the push and pull of individualism versus collectivism and corporate integration versus business fragmentation. The competition between these forces is creating what we’ve identified as three scenarios (‘worlds’) for the future of work: • Large corporates turning into mini- states and taking on a prominent role in society. • Specialisation creating the rise of collaborative networks. • The social and environmental agenda forcing fundamental changes to business strategy. Most organisations are likely to be a mix of all three worlds of work. As we explore in this report, it’s therefore useful to think about where your organisation might be positioned within these scenarios, the trade-offs this entails and what implications this has for your people management strategy. Evolving priorities The emergence of these three worlds is going to create fresh challenges for HR. Organisations currently grapple with the realities of skills shortages, managing people through change and creating an effective workforce. By 2022, the radical change in business models will mean that companies will be facing further issues such as: • The need to create ever more sophisticated people measurement techniques to monitor and control performance and productivity. • Increasing importance of social capital and relationships as the drivers of business success. • The boundary between work and personal life disappearing as companies assume greater responsibility for the social welfare of their employees. Organisations will have to be prepared to undergo new learning cycles and adapt themselves to these new challenges, not only to survive, but to succeed. Head of HR, Healthcare, India Changing role of HR HR has been perceived by many as a passive, service-oriented function. But given the demands of tomorrow’s workplace and business environment, we believe HR is at a crossroads and will go one of three ways: • With a proactive mindset and focused on business strategy, HR will take on a new wider people remit incorporating and influencing many other aspects of the business. • The function will become the driver of the corporate social responsibility agenda within the organisation. • The function will be seen as transactional and almost entirely outsourced. In the coming sections of this report, we explore the nature of these three worlds, what’s shaping them and how this will affect HR priorities, organisational design and wider business strategies.
  • 10. 8 PwC FragmentationIntegration The Orange World The Green World The Blue World Collectivism Individualism Companies begin to break down into collaboration networks of smaller organisations; specialisation dominates the world economy Big company capitalism rules as organisations continue to grow bigger and individual preferences trump beliefs about social responsibility Social responsibility dominates the corporate agenda with concerns about demographic changes, climate and sustainability becoming the key drivers of business Small is beautiful Corporate is kingCompanies care Three worlds of work
  • 11. 9The future of work – A journey to 2022 There will be a major shift away from the thinking that we learn one profession, have one job and stay in it for decades. Female, voluntary worker (aged 33 – 47), Germany.
  • 12. 10 PwC Where big company capitalism reigns supreme The globalisers take centre stage, consumer preferences dominate, a corporate career separates the haves from the have-nots. The Blue World – corporate is king Driving goal Profit, growth and market leadership. How to compete Scale is the crucial differentiator. It allows these mega-corporations to reach out across the globe and compete for talent and resources – constantly innovating and keeping pace with customer demands. Employee value proposition (the ‘deal’) Job security and long-term service with an organisation in return for employee commitment and flexibility.
  • 13. 11The future of work – A journey to 2022 The most important thing in a job for 44% of people around the world is job security. 44% The attractions include high rewards for high-flyers. This is a chance to be one of the ‘haves’ in a world where stable employment is less and less the norm. Employees also have access to the pensions, health and other benefits that their host societies may not provide or be scaling back. Metrics and data are used to drive business performance through complex staff segmentation strategies which identify thousands of skills sets – creating precision around sourcing the right candidates for the right tasks, as well as on-the-job performance measurement and assessment. of people around the world believe that technology will improve their job prospects. 64% Relentless pressure to perform In the Blue World, big company capitalism reigns supreme. Consumer preferences and profit margins dominate in a model built around flexibility, efficiency and speed to market. The relentless pressure on performance isn’t just driven by competition from peers, but also aggressive new entrants looking to lead innovation and undercut existing players. Blue firms follow the money and go wherever the opportunity is – their operating model enables them to survive and thrive in both stable and volatile economic conditions alike. The challenges include how to integrate talent from different markets into the overall corporate culture. The need to lead innovation and open up new opportunities will also see them investing heavily in R&D and acquiring smaller start-ups. How to cater for flexibility with the right amount of trust and technological support to still exceed the expectations of clients [will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next ten years] Human Resource Director, Business Services, Kenya PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US
  • 14. 12 PwC 31% of HR professionals are gearing their talent strategies to pushing back the borders of innovation and possibility, employing only the best and offering long-term job security and reward. The Blue World of 2022 People policies seek to lock in talent, but the top talent is still hard to attract and retain; many senior executives use personal agents to seek out the best deals. The data profiling that drives customer management will increasingly be replicated among employees as screening and monitoring move to a new level. Sensors check their location, performance and health. The monitoring may even stretch into their private lives in an extension of today’s drug tests. Periodic health screening gives way to real-time monitoring of health, with proactive health guidance and treatment to enable staff to perform more efficiently, reduce sick leave and work for more years before needing to retire. Blue firms have a network of relationships with third-party research centres, innovation firms and universities through which they fund and source new product and process ideas. They use mechanisms such as idea sourcing platforms, challenge contests and seeding of venture funds and incubators to bring a constant flow of opportunity. While some of the ideas make it into core products and processes, many are sold on or licensed to create a self- funding innovation model. Leadership teams have a high focus on the evolution of the corporate culture, with rigorous recruitment processes to ensure new employees fit the corporate ideal. New staff are subject to compulsory corporate culture learning and development programmes. The ‘contract’ with employees is defined by the handing over of data (e.g. health, performance, possibly even private life) in return for job security. More than 30% of the participants in our global survey would be happy for their employers to have access to their personal data. Younger people tend to be more open to this than older generations, so this kind of monitoring could become routine in the years to come. 3 out of 10 of the participants in our global survey would be happy for their employers to have access to their personal data. The speed of technological progress, such as the popularity of the ‘Internet of Things’, will have a big impact on the way we work over the next ten years. Male, in permanent employment (aged 33 – 47), China PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from across the world
  • 15. 13The future of work – A journey to 2022 Changing organisational and HR demands The management of people within the Blue World is a hard business discipline, akin to finance within this scenario. In addition to identifying and delivering the talent needed to meet business objectives, successful HR teams are developing the ever more sophisticated measurement and management techniques needed to ensure that the workforce meets exacting performance targets. The HR function evolves into a people and performance unit, which is led by the Chief People Officer (CPO), who is a powerful and influential figure within the leadership team of the organisation. Those responsible for people management increasingly need financial, analytical, marketing and risk management skills to measure the impact of human talent on their organisation and retain the best people. Talent is managed alongside artificial intelligence in a hybrid model. HR will develop real-time response to data feeds as it evolves into a key part of the wider performance team. Questions for HR How can you develop the more sophisticated human capital metrics needed to constantly improve performance? How do you develop a broader resource optimisation approach in which machines, artificial intelligence and human beings work side by side? Where is the line between performance monitoring and personal space and how can you make sure the organisation stays within it? ? Reward models include a strong performance-related element. A key challenge for HR is convincing employees that the ‘price’ of data release and close monitoring is worth paying. This includes developing the right balance between the benefits (e.g. job security or health protection) and productivity gains of this personal data. It also includes building trust through codes of conduct about how data is acquired, used and shared. The machine will become fully intelligent and have the ability to think independently. Male, in permanent employment (aged 48 – 66), UK
  • 16. 14 PwC Where consumers and employees force change Companies develop a powerful social conscience and green sense of responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentials as a top priority. Society and business see their agendas align. The Green World – companies care Driving goal Socially and environmentally beneficial good. How to compete A social and environmental conscience is demanded by customers and staff right through the organisation and its supply chain. The organisation must get it right in order to survive and compete. Employee value proposition (the ‘deal’) Ethical values and work – life balance in return for loyalty towards an organisation that does right by its employees.
  • 17. 15The future of work – A journey to 2022 Brands can rise and fall on the basis of perceived green credentials, with government imposed corporate fines for bad behaviour in this highly regulated world. Corporate responsibility is not an altruistic nice to have, but a business imperative. Employees are expected to uphold corporate values and targets around the green agenda. The need to travel to meet clients and colleagues is replaced with technological solutions, which reduce the need for face-to-face contact. Employees’ carbon footprint is carefully monitored and built into performance targets. As society gravitates towards more sustainable living, the HR function is forced to embrace sustainability and corporate responsibility as part of its people engagement and talent management agendas. of people around the world want to work for an organisation with a powerful social conscience.1 65% of HR professionals are building their talent strategies around their organisations’ social and environmental conscience, which is intrinsic to the brand and matches the values and beliefs of their people.2 Rethinking values and goals In the Green World, companies take the lead in developing a strong social conscience and sense of environmental responsibility. They are open, trusting, collaborative learning organisations and see themselves playing an important role in supporting and developing their employees and local communities. Companies have strong control over their supplier networks to ensure that corporate ethical values are upheld across the supply chain, and are able to troubleshoot when things go wrong. In turn, the combination of ethical values, support for the real economy and family- friendly hours is an opportunity to create a new employee value proposition that isn’t solely reliant on pay. 36% 1 PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US 2 PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from across the world
  • 18. 16 PwC While our survey confirms that the opportunity to work for organisations that share their values and beliefs is attractive to many of the best and brightest candidates, the overall incentive package is still going to be important. Financial rewards can be augmented by the chance to take up secondments on social and environmental projects. Further challenges include how to ensure that strict compliance with laws and standards doesn’t inhibit flexibility and enterprise. In a caring organisation, there is also the question of how to keep people in employment if there is a downturn in the market or wider economy. Working closely with employees and other stakeholders, HR will be expected to come up with innovative solutions to these challenges. Questions for HR How can you turn your values into a compelling element of your employer brand? Is your function set up to work with people who want a greater say in designing their working responsibilities and rewards? How can you monitor the desired ethics and behaviour most effectively? ? The Green World of 2022 Moves towards the Green World are being bolstered by the need to use resources in smarter and more efficient ways. The disillusionment that has followed in the wake of the financial crisis and public anger over some corporations’ environmental, social and tax policies is forcing ever more companies and workers to question the very nature and purpose of their business. Customers look to Green firms to introduce innovative ideas and practices and influence their own behaviour – often setting challenges around ways of working which can be transferred back into the customer’s own environment. Customers are proud to support Green firms and the broader societal goals they are pursuing. Technology and the internet play a critical role in providing total transparency of the firm’s environmental, social and ethical impact and performance across all of its activities. A distinctive feature of Green firms is the practice of co-creation – engaging with customers, partners, external agents and the local community to create new products and services that benefit the customer, the company and the broader community Diversity and work – life balance are viewed as sources of strength and competitive advantage. Staff are encouraged to forge links with the community and to take part in socially useful projects. Rather than basic performance, the emphasis is on using data to promote broader objectives, such as health and well-being, professional development, flexible working and volunteering. The development of environmental best practice is a key objective for employees, who are encouraged to create new and interactive ways to share ideas and encourage people to take them up. Changing organisational and HR demands The CEO drives the people strategy for the organisation, believing that the people in the organisation and their behaviours and role in society have a direct link to the organisation’s success or failure. Green firm pioneers avoid hierarchy and opt for flexible, flat and fluid organisational structures. Everyone in a Green firm has the opportunity to participate in decision- making and feels responsibility for the organisation’s success. HR and corporate social responsibility fuse as organisations embrace sustainability and support for socially valuable ‘good growth’. HR helps to foster close collaboration between employer and employee in designing jobs around aspirations and lifestyles. Reward models will be highly flexible as part of this personalised design. The need for economic and environmental efficiency [will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next ten years] Male, self-employed (aged 48 – 66), UK
  • 19. 17The future of work – A journey to 2022 Crowded urban centres will necessitate ‘anywhere working’ aided by technology. VP Human Resources, Financial Services, USA Greater emphasis on work – life balance – more employees wanting work that fits around their life rather than focusing on a specific career path [will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next ten years] Human Resources Manager, Engineering and Construction, Australia
  • 20. 18 PwC The Orange World – small is beautiful Where big is bad, for business, for people and for the environment Global businesses fragment. Technology empowers a low impact, high-tech business model. Networks prosper while large companies decline. Driving goal Maximising flexibility while minimising fixed costs. How to compete Embracing the rise of the portfolio career, hiring a diverse mix of people on an affordable, ad hoc basis. Employee value proposition (the ‘deal’) Flexibility, autonomy and varied challenges in return for working on a short-term contractual basis.
  • 21. 19The future of work – A journey to 2022 The chance to take control of their career, what they do and when is what 29% of people around the world most want from a job.1 29% Seeking out fresh opportunities In the Orange World organisations fragment into looser networks of autonomous, often specialised operations. Technology helps to bring these networks together, often on a task-by-task basis, with social media heightening the connectivity upon which this world depends. Supply chains are built from complex, organic associations of specialist providers, varying greatly from region to region and market to market. Looser, less tightly regulated clusters of companies are seen to work more effectively than their larger and potentially more unwieldy counterparts. Moves towards the Orange World have been bolstered by the rise of the portfolio career. Many people have come to realise that they could enjoy more flexibility and varied challenges by working freelance or as a contractor for a number of organisations. The Orange World desire for autonomy is strongest in China, especially among young people, indicating a generational shift towards greater freedom, entrepreneurship and specialist skills in this rapidly evolving economy. Over half of participants in China believe that traditional employment won’t be around in the future. Instead, people will have their own ‘brands’ and sell their skills to those who need them. The belief that the future lies in a contingent model is also strong among graduates, though people with fewer qualifications anticipate much less change in their working arrangements. of HR professionals expect at least 20% of their workforce to be made up of contractors or temporary workers by 2022.2 46% People’s increasing need for diversified careers, mobility and flexibility [will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next ten years] Human Resources Manager, Asset Management, South Africa 1 PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US 2 PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from across the world Contract employment will be king. Full-time jobs will be become obsolete. Male, retired (aged 48 – 66), US
  • 22. 20 PwC Workers are categorised and rewarded for having specialist expertise, which will create increased demand for people to have a personal stake in the organisation’s or project’s success. Options such as project delivery-related bonuses are therefore going to become more common. A key challenge is ensuring that the people being hired genuinely have the expertise required or claimed. This demands a combination of effective verification and watertight contractual agreements, possibly with penalties for poor and non-delivery. It’s also going to require a high degree of relationship building and business trust. Many contractors and partners will adopt ‘eBay-style’ ratings of past performance to help land the next contract. Questions for HR How can you identify and attract the contract staff needed to meet different objectives? How can you verify the authenticity of the data being used to select staff and associates? How do you effectively manage non- owned resource? ? The Orange World of 2022 Big business will be outflanked by a vibrant, innovative and entrepreneurial middle market. A core team embodies the philosophy and values of the company. The rest come in and out on a project-by-project basis. Some firms compete on quality and specialisation, while others offer commoditised price-dependent support. Telepresence and virtual solutions allow for greater remote working and extended global networks. Efficient systems and processes are the key to success of Orange companies. Maximum operational flexibility, lean staffing models, collaborative partnerships and minimal fixed costs are critical enablers of Orange firms. These companies make extensive use of technology to run their businesses, coordinate a largely external workforce and support their relationships with third parties. They take advantage of disruptive technology when appropriate and stay abreast of new developments to ensure they are up to speed in their sector. The development of networks and relationships with contingent staff is critical. Technology tracks their applicability, location and availability. Changing organisational and HR demands HR manages bidding processes as part of an open market for assignments in which people from within and outside the organisation apply and compete for postings and projects. Recruitment becomes largely a sourcing function, which is often merged with the management of the huge number of contracts and price agreements required for each company’s network of partner organisations. Many companies will be too small to have HR hiring teams and will look to technology or dedicated agents to supply needs. People are more likely to see themselves as members of a particular skill or professional network than as an employee of a particular company. Orange pioneers will give a new lease of life to professional guilds, associations and trade bodies – relying on them for training, development and innovation. People are more likely to see themselves as members of a particular skill or professional network than as an employee of a specific company.
  • 23. 21The future of work – A journey to 2022 31% of HR professionals are building their talent strategies around the rise of the portfolio career, hiring a diverse mix of people on an affordable, ad hoc basis.2 2 out of 5 People around the world believe that traditional employment won’t be around in the future. Instead, people will have their own ‘brands’ and sell their skills to those who need them.1 Managing a diverse, heavily matrixed and virtual organisation [will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next ten years] Vice-President for Human Resources, Retail and Consumer, Switzerland 1 PwC survey of 10,000 members of the general population based in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US 2 PwC survey of 480 HR professionals from across the world
  • 24. 22 PwC A summary of people management characteristics in 2022 Corporate is king: Blue World Companies care: Green World Small is beautiful: Orange World How organisations source and attract talent Organisations compete to find and secure the best talent available and use extensive search and evaluation methods to find the stars of tomorrow. Talent is attracted by the potential for high earnings, job security and status. Green World companies seek like- minded individuals to extend their corporate family, taking great care to only select talent with the right behaviours and attitudes. Talent is attracted to Green World brands, their values and their culture. Technology provides the solution to finding and evaluating contractors as suppliers of key skills. Commercial terms are offered for a specific task. A company’s reputation within networks and online recruitment markets is crucial in attracting talent. Reward and performance Reward is based on finely tuned performance metrics. Organisations focus on total reward, which recognises corporate citizenship and good behaviours alongside performance. Contract-based pay for projects is the norm. Results-based or buy-in contracts are also common. Negotiation skills are vital. Learning and development's role Individuals build skills and experience to adapt to changing business needs. Learning and development is closely aligned to objectives and performance measures. Personal and professional development fuse in areas such as volunteering. Individuals develop their own skills. Professional guilds will re-emerge and certify skills alongside online references and performance rankings. The role of HR HR uses advanced analytics to predict future talent demands and to measure and anticipate performance and retention issues. HR acts as guardian of the brand. There is a strong focus on creating the right culture and behaviours and on guarding against sustainability and reputational risk across the supply chain. HR focuses on sourcing contractors and negotiating the contracts, along with performance management and project economics. Role of technology in managing people Sensors and data analytics to measure and optimise performance. Helping people to build work into their lives and minimise their environmental impact. Creating virtual collaboration.
  • 25. 23The future of work – A journey to 2022
  • 26. 24 PwC Are you ready? The effectiveness with which your organisation plans people management for the long-term will be critical to its long-term viability, ensuring you have the right people, with the right skills, in the right places to realise your evolving goals. Think too much in the short-term and you may find yourself on the back foot, unable to catch up with sudden shifts in your marketplace. Forward-looking HR teams are already considering a range of different scenarios for the future as part of their business planning (see Figure 2), but few are taking a sufficiently longer term view to deal with them. PwC survey of 480 HR Professionals from across the world. Figure 2: Planning ahead – How far does HR in your organisation look into the future? Short-term: The future is moving so fast that it is very hard to predict how things will change Medium-term: I anticipate a lot of change and am building possible future scenarios into our current talent pipelines Long-term: I am actively considering the evolving and multiple visions of the future as part of our long-term business planning 56% 21% 24% Most of the HR professionals in our survey don’t believe they’re prepared for meeting the needs of a workforce that demands more freedom, autonomy and flexibility. Only around 20% report that they’re ready to embrace the role of technology and automation in replacing knowledge workers, even though most recognise this is something they should consider.
  • 27. 25The future of work – A journey to 2022 Figure 3: How can organisations plan for the future of people management? Which world are you heading towards: Blue, Green, Orange or something else entirely? What are the scenarios for your organisation? How will your organisation need to change...resourcing, talent management, employee engagement, reward, learning and development... what else? As Figure 3 outlines, our three worlds can provide a starting point for judging the opportunities, risks and evolving demands on HR across different areas of your organisation. But no one model will prevail and even within them, it will be important to manage competing demands. How will your organisation’s culture respond to an environment of constant change? What will be the role of leadership? What behaviours will be most valuable to the organisation and how will the organisation need to communicate with and engage all employees? What do you need to do to get there? Better understand where you are now through use of evaluation techniques, benchmarking and measurement.
  • 28. 26 PwC So what does the future hold for HR? In the Blue World, it will be at the centre of a hugely influential metric-driven strategy and performance function. In the Orange World, it is set to have a much narrower recruitment and tendering role, with many other aspects of the function outsourced. In the Green World, HR’s role could be much more diffuse, helping employees to shape their work around their values and outside lives. Whatever path your function follows, it’s going to look very different in 2022.
  • 29. 27The future of work – A journey to 2022 Blue World Green World Orange World
  • 30. 28 PwC Appendix Global forces Business fragmentation Globalis ation Technologyc onrolsme Reversegl obalisation I controlt echnology Collectivism Corporate integration Individualism The free-market trend prevails as trade barriers disappear Focus on individual wants; a response to the infinite choices available to consumers A yearning for the human touch minimises the personal impact of technology on consumers BIg business rules all Protectionist policies begin to rebuild barriers to free movement of people and goods The common good prevails over personal preference, e.g. collective responsibility for the environment over individual interest Allowing technology into almost every part of a person’s life The potential break-up of large businesses and the risk of collaboration networksCreating the three worlds We worked with the James Martin Institute to think about the factors that were affecting business and those that we believed would grow in importance in the future. We mapped these around a matrix and developed a number of scenarios: plausible futures around each. We started our research by examining the forces that were affecting global business and were likely to have significant impact on the future. While there are many social, environmental, religious and demographic factors that have a significant influence, we chose to focus on the global forces that we feel have the greatest impact on people management.
  • 31. 29The future of work – A journey to 2022 Contacts Michael Rendell Human Resource Services Global Network Leader +44 20 7212 4945 michael.g.rendell@uk.pwc.com Justine Brown Global marketing & business development, Human resources services +44 113 289 4423 justine.brown@uk.pwc.com North America Scott Olsen +1 646 471 0651 scott.n.olsen@us.pwc.com Bhushan Sethi +1 646 471 2377 bhushan.sethi@us.pwc.com Western Europe Jon Andrews +44 20 7804 9000 jon.andrews@uk.pwc.com Peter De Bley +32 2 7104321 peter.de.bley@be.pwc.com Charles Donkor +41 58 792 4554 charles.donkor@ch.pwc.com Till Lohman +49 40 6378-8835 till.r.lohmann@de.pwc.com Central & Eastern Europe Zsolt Szelecki +44 20 7804 1710 szelecki.zsolt@uk.pwc.com Middle East David Suarez +971 4304 3981 david.suarez@ae.pwc.com China/Hong Kong Mandy Kwok +852 2289 3900 mandy.kwok@hk.pwc.com Lukia Xing +86 (10) 6533 7018 lukia.xing@cn.pwc.com Singapore Alywin Teh +65 62367268 alywin.teh@sg.pwc.com India Padmaja Alaganandan +91 80 4079 4001 padmaja.alaganandan@in.pwc.com Australia Jon Williams +61 (2) 8266 2402 jon.williams@au.pwc.com South and Central America Joao Lins +55 11 3674 3536 joao.lins@br.pwc.com Africa Gerald Seegers +27 (11) 797 4560 gerald.seegers@za.pwc.com
  • 32. www.pwc.com/humancapital PwC helps organisations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 184,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com. This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PwC does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © 2014 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. Design Services 28665 (05/14).