This work sample is a NOT finalised draft of a ICLEI publication issued in the framework of RAMSES project and its contents are retrieved from different project deliverables. For the purpose of this work sample, I voluntarily did not include any reference to deliverables, partners, funding, etc. nor graphs and descriptive statistics. The final version included two graphs, project and partners’ logos, and other graphical elements.

1. ECONOMIC COSTS OF
HEAT WAVES AND
INCREASING
TEMPERATURES IN
EUROPEAN CITIES
Key messages
Recognising the issue
Due to their higher concentration of people, assets, infrastructure and productive activities, cities are
affected by climate-related hazards to a larger extent than their surroundings. Major city-level hazards
include increased temperatures and heat waves.
Cities retain high temperatures longer than surrounding areas because of the so-called ´urban heat
island effect’ and, in the near future, they will experience twice as many heat days as their
surroundings.
Heat stress provokes major economic damages to urban economies, specifically in terms of transport
disruption, decreased labour productivity and health morbidities. Cost estimation is extremely complex,
as costs depend upon both differences in temperature and structure of the city’s economy, specifically
on the size and spatial distribution of different productive sectors.
Detailed and comparable data at the city level are still relatively scarce or difficult to collect.
Nevertheless, policy action requires a precise estimation of the city-wide impacts of climate change in
order to adopt appropriate adaptation measures.
The RAMSES project delivers quantified evidence by monetizing costs of climate hazards and benefits
of different adaptation measures, as well as the costs of inaction. Its methodology is transferable
across cities and sectors: by focusing on one hazard – e.g. heat waves - and one sector – e.g. labour
productivity - at a time, indeed, results are intuitive and comparable.
! Urban agglomerations retain high temperatures for a longer time than rural areas.
! Climate projections indicate that in the near future urban areas will experience twice as many heat
waves days as their surroundings.
! In absence of adaptation measures, the potential for adverse effects of heat stress in cities is
expected to increase.
! Heat hazards mainly affect cities through productivity losses, increased mortality and morbidity, and
transport disruptions.
! The estimation of heat-related damage costs on urban economies requires detailed, local-based,
and comparable data collection.
! Heat-related productivity losses vary greatly across and even within cities: they depend on the
peculiar features and structure of the city economy, as well as on context-specific key propagating
mechanisms.

2. Costs of heat on cities
To adapt cities to heat waves, the evaluation the damage scale and of the effectiveness of different
adaptation strategies is essential. To this aim, the RAMSES project analysed three core case study
cities: London, Antwerp and Bilbao (see Spotlight).
Costs of heat waves to the urban economy are highly variable, as they depend on specific production
features. For instance, cities whose economic structure entails
mainly low labour intensity sectors, such as the financial sector
in London, are less vulnerable to heat stress than cities with
high labour intensity sectors, e.g. urban construction.
Adaptation measures aimed at reducing productivity losses
under an increasing temperature scenario reduce the energy
required to carry on a certain activity.
Results show that, e.g. behavioural adaptation in the form of
changing working hours generates dissimilar outcomes in
various cities, with the most efficient working regime estimated
to save up to 0.8% of GVA (Gross Value Added) in Bilbao in a
warm year in the near future (2026-2045).
Costs of heat on health in cities
All else equal, as urban density increases, so does the population at risk from heat-related health
illnesses. Several factors need to be considered for a comprehensive estimation of health costs of
heat waves. One of them is the cost of inaction. Some of the avertible costs are: heat-related
mortalities through health adaptation, health costs related to individuals that seek medical treatment,
morbidity-related productivity losses for individuals at work.
Heat also provokes indirect effects on health that have to be accounted for, e.g. it jeopardizes critical
infrastructure that are vital for public health. Because both health vulnerability and adaptive capacity
are context-specific, establishing health adaptation policies and plans should be established at the
local level.
Costs of heat on transport in cities
With temperatures over 39° C, rails can buckle and deform, with consequences in terms of damage
repairs and delays to users. In the context of urban agglomerations, the costs of delays occur through
domino-effects on interdependent sectors: for example, they may provoke increasing commuting time,
which in principle implies an equivalent loss in working hours.
Domino-effects of transport disruptions vary according to the geographical distribution of economic
activities. For instance, a disruption of the rail network in some boroughs of London might provoke
significant losses because of its concentration of productive activities. Overall, when transport costs
increase because of disruption, production may become more dispersed, with the associated loss of
economies of scale.
N : This work sample is a not finalised draft of a ICLEI publication issued in the framework of RAMSES
project and its contents are retrieved from different project deliverables. For the purpose of this work
sample, I voluntarily did not include any reference to deliverables, partners, funding, etc. nor graphs
and descriptive statistics. The final version included two graphs, project and partners’ logos, and other
graphical elements.
In the spotlight:
London, Antwerp and Bilbao
Results show that in a warm year in
the far future, economic losses due
to heat stress are estimated to be of
0.4% of GVA in London, 2.1% in
Antwerp, and 9.5% in Bilbao.