2. Flood footprint definition
Flooding in one location can impact the whole UK economy. Neglecting these knock-on costs (i.e.
the true footprint of the flood) means we might be ignoring the economic benefits and
beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. In 2007, for example, floods cost the
economy about £3.2 bn directly, but the wider effect might actually add another 50% to 250% to
that.
We aim at gaining an improved understanding of the economic impacts of floods in urban areas,
and of the knock-on effects of these on the wider economies. Taken together, these can be
described as the flood footprint.
Flood footprint is a measure of the exclusive total (socio)economic impact that is directly and
indirectly caused by a flood event to the flooding region and wider economic systems (and
social networks). Flood footprint is measured by £ or percentage of regional GVA / national
GDP.
3.
4. (a) Pre-disaster (b) Post-disaster
Post disaster shows flood affecting part of the country.
Size of dot = organisation production output, Colour of dot = type of organisation
We view the economy as a system of circular flow interrelations among production and
consumption, then the interrelations are broken by the incident and a multitude of imbalances
is expected in supply-demand relations during its recovery
We construct event accounting matrix: records the intensity of the impacts on each activity
and transaction in the first instance, and the response of each activity or transaction after a
disaster in the second instance
Factors considered in recovery: labour (loss + productivity), capital survived and recovered,
organisations’ adaptation capacities.
Factors considered in flood footprint analysis
5. • Wassily Leontief’s PhD dissertation in Germany on Kreislaufwirtschaft,
• developed input-output analysis in the 1930s
• Will there be unemployment after war?
• Environmental Repercussion and the economic system (1970)
• Nobel Prize in 1973
Using input-output analysis framework
7. • IO analysis is grounded in the technological relations of production and
provides a full accounting for all inputs into production.
• IO analysis is a powerful tool to assess the economic effect of a natural
catastrophe at a regional and sectoral level through intermediate
consumption and demand.
• Although IO analysis is mainly a model of production, it’s fully capable of
analyzing households and other institutions.
• IO model’s simplicity and integration ability with engineering models and data
Using input-output analysis framework
9. • City level IO model is based on Augmented Flegg Industrial
Location Quotients
• Physical damage distribution can be provided from urban
inundation model analysis.
• Damages in labour is uniformly distributed according with the
proportion of working people in affected homes
• Recovery pattern is defined as ‘recovery back to pre-disaster
condition’.
• The Rationing Scheme set priorities of remaining supplies to ‘fix’
business to business trading relationships, rather than household
demand in luxury goods and services.
• The maximum amount of imports is equal to the pre-disaster
level. The import is constraint by productivity recovery in
transportation sectors.
Adaptive IO
model
Damage function
inventory
Damage
functions
Industry Residential
Capitals (e.g.
utilities,
buildings)
Affected
residents
Demand
for
goods/ser
vices for
recovery
Lifestyle
changes
after
disaster
Changed
demand
for
goods /
services
UK Multi-
colour
database
Flood
inundation
model
City level
IO model
Seasonal
economic
datasets
Monthly
Events
Accounting
model
Direct costs
to industry
(monetary)
Business
interruption
during event
Recovery &
reconstruction
Wider (indirect)
economic
impacts (per
sector)
Parameter by
other WPs
(forthcoming)
Flood footprint analysis and assumptions
10. Flood footprint analysis for 2007 flooding
in Sheffield
• Direct Damage accounts for £ 295 million (3.5% of Sheffield city GVA)
• The Indirect Damage is in the order of £ 276.60 million (around 3.3%
of Sheffield GVA of 2007)
• The Flood Footprint is £571.50 million (6.8% of Sheffield GVA)
• It takes about 20 months for a full recovery
Flood footprint in Austria is 630 million euros which accounts over one-third of the loss. The figure is 0.2% of Austrian GDP. While footprints in Czech Republic, Germany and Poland are 410 million euros, 391 million euros, and 249 million euros which takes 24%, 23%, and 15% of the total loss, respectively. The figure represents 0.25% of national GDP in Czech Republic.
Figure X illustrates flood footprint distribution among the 14 economic sectors across four countries. Construction and Manufacture general sectors are the major victims of the loss. Flooding footprint for the construction is 460 million euros, which accounts for 27% of total loss , while damage in Manufacture general sector is 370 million euros, which takes 21% of total loss. Austria contributes the most to the losses in both sectors. In particular, flood footprint of construction in Austria is 210 million euros, which accounts for 46% of total footprint of this sector. The flood footprint of general manufacturing in Austria is 135 million euros or 37% of total footprint of this sector. The third largest sector in terms of flood footprint is Manufacture of recovery items, which is 264 million euros. Within the Manufacture of recovery items sector losses, Austria contributes 105million euros or 40% of total footprint while Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland contribute 23%, 25%, and almost 12% respectively.
