These are the slides presented at the Economic Forum Webinar on Monday 13 September 2021.

1. ONS Economic Forum
13 September 2021
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2. ONS Economic Forum
Chair – Ed Palmer
Deputy Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
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3. Agenda
09:30 – 09:35 Welcome and introduction – Ed Palmer
09:35 – 09:50 State of the UK Economy – Grant Fitzner
09:50 – 10:05 Impact of COVID-19 on household finances Andrew
Banks and Bella Beynon
10:05 – 10:25 Q&A
10:25 – 10:30 Close
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4. Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code
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5. State of the UK
Economy
Grant Fitzner^ & Rhys Humphries*
^ Chief Economist @GrantFitzner
* Lead Economist, Economist Insights Unit
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6. Economic output
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7. UK economic recovery continues
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Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
GDP Monthly Index, UK, 2018 = 100

8. Covid-affected industries
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Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
Note: Consumer-facing services refer to retail trade, food and beverage serving activities, travel and transport, and entertainment and
recreation (SIC 2007 codes 45, 47, 49.1-2, 56, 68.1-2, 75, 79, 92, 93, 94, 96 and 97).
Real monthly gross domestic product in selected industries, UK, s.a., Feb. 2020 = 100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Jun
2021
Jul
2021
Education
Human health and social work activities
Consumer-facing services

9. Labour market
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10. Labour impacts tempered by furlough
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Source: ONS – Labour Force Survey, Dataset A01 (MGSR, MGSX), all aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted
UK employment rate around recessions UK unemployment rate around recessions
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Months since output peak
1990-91 recession
2008-09 recession
2020-21 recession
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Months since output peak
1990-91 recession
2008-09 recession
2020-21 recession

11. Proportion of workers furloughed
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Source: ONS – Business Insights and Conditions Survey and HMRC – Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme statistics
Comparison between CJRS statistics and BICS estimates on proportions of the workforce on furlough
UK, 29 March 2020 to 15 August 2021, percentage
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
BICS (unweighted)
BICS: currently trading
CJRS Statistics: BICS industries only
CJRS Statistics: All industries

12. Job vacancies reach record levels
Source: ONS – Vacancy survey and HMRC – Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme statistics
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0 100,000 200,000 300,000
Mining and quarrying
Energy production and supply
Water supply, sewerage and waste
Real estate
Public administration and defence; social security
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Transportation and storage
Finance and insurance
Construction
Information and communication
Administrative and support services
Education
Manufacturing
Professional, scientific and technical
Accommodation and food services
Wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles
Health and social work
Single month vacancies (July)
Employments on furlough (July)
Job vacancies and number of employees furloughed in different industries, UK, July 2021

13. Redundancy indicators subdued
Source: The Insolvency Service, and Google Trends
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Feb 2019 Aug 2019 Feb 2020 Aug 2020 Feb 2021 Aug 2021
HR1 forms received (LHS)
Google 'redundancy' searches (RHS)
Monthly redundancy notifications (GB) and Google ‘redundancy’ searches (UK), n.s.a.

14. Consumer spending
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15. Retail footfall
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Source: Springboard and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Overall daily retail footfall as percentage of the equivalent day of the equivalent week of 2019

16. Consumer confidence and retail sales
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Source: ONS – Retail sales volume and GfK – Consumer confidence barometer
Monthly retail sales volume, UK
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Apr 2021 Jul 2021
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2020
JAN
2020
APR
2020
JUL
2020
OCT
2021
JAN
2021
APR
2021
JUL
GfK consumer confidence barometer, UK

17. Inflation
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18. Producer price pressures
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Source: Office for National Statistics – Consumer and producer prices
Consumer and producer prices: CPIH (RHS), Input PPI and Output PPI (LHS), UK, 12-month change
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21
Input PPI Output PPI CPIH

19. Businesses report greater price pressures
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Source: Office for National Statistics – Consumer and producer prices
UK business currently trading reporting price increases for goods and services purchased or sold
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21
Prices bought increased more than normal Prices sold increased more than normal

20. Consumer price inflation in the G7
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Source: OECD – Main Economic Indicators
G7, January 2020 to July 2021 2021, 12-month rate, percentage
UK
US
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Canada
G7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
UK US France
Germany Italy Japan
Canada G7

21. Economic outlook
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22. Real-time indicators
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Source: European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
(EUROCONTROL)
UK flights: daily and 7 day moving average
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Week
1
Week
3
Week
5
Week
7
Week
9
Week
11
Week
13
Week
16
Week
18
Week
20
Week
22
Week
24
Week
26
Week
28
Week
31
Week
33
Week
35
Week
37
Week
39
Week
41
Week
43
Week
46
Week
48
Week
50
Week
52
2019 Flights 2019 (7 day average)
2020 Flights 2020 (7 day average)
2021 Flights 2021 (7 day average)
Seated diners, UK, 7 day average vs 2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
24/02/2020
23/03/2020
20/04/2020
18/05/2020
15/06/2020
13/07/2020
10/08/2020
07/09/2020
05/10/2020
02/11/2020
30/11/2020
28/12/2020
25/01/2021
22/02/2021
22/03/2021
19/04/2021
17/05/2021
14/06/2021
12/07/2021
09/08/2021
06/09/2021
UK London Manchester
Source: OpenTable

23. Source: ONS – National Accounts; monthly GDP (ECY2) and quarterly GDP (ABMI)
UK economic downturns and recovery; index: 100 = last quarter before onset of recession
Post-war recessions compared
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70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
0 1 2 3 4
Years since pre-recession peak
Q2 1973 peak Q4 1979 peak Q2 1990 peak Feb 2008 peak Jan 2020 peak

24. The economic outlook
Short-term outlook
• Strong labour demand across many sectors as workers come off furlough
• Consumer confidence has recovered, but pent-up consumer demand fading
• Turnover in some service sectors remains below pre-pandemic levels
• Short-term trade disruption from end of the transition period largely over
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Medium-term uncertainties
• Impact of the Delta COVID-19 wave on consumer behaviour
• Extent and persistence of labour shortages and supply chain constraints
• Potential for some dislocation as economy and workforce restructures
• Outlook for business investment and productivity growth are key

25. Impact of COVID-19 on
household finances
Andrew Banks and Bella Beynon
Income and Wealth Analysis
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26. Overview
• Understanding the effects of the pandemic on inequality is very
complex – a lot of different experiences for different groups
• Important to consider the initial position of financial resilience, as
well as changes to income, spending and wealth together
• Overall, on average households have more savings and a
greater ability to make ends meet because of reduced spend –
although the extent to which this has happened varies greatly
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27. Household spending declined among all income
quintiles in the year to March 2021
Change in weekly household spending, by household income quintile, UK, FYE 2020 to
FYE 2021
Income quintile % change Absolute change
1 (lowest income) -12.5% -£41.00
2 -15.5% -£67.10
3 -18.4% -£101.50
4 -20.7% -£142.60
5 (highest income) -20.6% -£193.10
All households -18.6% -£109.10
Source: Office for National Statistics – Living Costs and Food Survey Slido#61889

28. Higher income households saw the largest
spending drops on non-essentials
Contribution to change
in weekly household
expenditure (%), by
spending category and
income quintile, UK,
2020/21
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29. Reduced spending on holidays abroad was a
significant factor
Contribution of holidays
abroad expenditure to
falls in total spending,
by income quintile, UK,
2020/21
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30. Working adults on the lowest incomes were
most likely to see a fall in household income
Economically active
adults’ change in
household income in
2020/21 compared with
2019/20, by income
quintile, Great Britain
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31. Workers paid less than £20,000 were more likely
to be furloughed and use savings to cover costs
Percentage of workers
that were furloughed
and percentage that
used their savings to
cover living costs, by
income group, Great
Britain, April 2020 to
July 2021
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32. Higher income households spent less relative to
income than lower income households
Disposable household
income to expenditure
ratio, by income
quintile, UK, 2019/20 to
2020/21
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33. The ability to make ends meet improved, but
wide variation remained
Proportion of people
reporting that they
found it ‘fairly easy’,
‘easy’, or ‘very easy’ to
make ends meet, Great
Britain
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34. One in five people of Black ethnicity found
keeping up with bills a heavy burden during the
pandemic
Proportion of population
falling finding keeping
up with bills a heavy
burden, falling behind
with some bills, and
experiencing real
financial problems, by
ethnicity, Great Britain,
May 2020 to February
2021
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35. Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code
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Q&A

36. Closing remarks
Chair – Ed Palmer
Deputy Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
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37. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
21 September - Digital content: The environmental legacy of lockdown
1 October - Effects of furlough on UK workers: October 2021
7 October - Total wealth in Great Britain
8 October - Nowcasting: Early estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) in the
regions of England and Wales, Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2021
11 October - Sub-national Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
18 October - Understanding towns in England and Wales: House price analysis
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
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38. Census Outputs Consultation – now live
On 13 July 2021 the Office for National Statistics launched a public consultation, outlining our
proposals for the content design and shape of the release plans for Census 2021 outputs.
The aim of this consultation is to obtain an updated view of your detailed needs for Census 2021
data and analysis, and to understand your priorities.
Your feedback will help us to make decisions on the final design of the Census 2021 outputs and
analysis for England and Wales.
We would appreciate your views on this consultation by providing a response via
https://consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-affairs/census-2021-outputs-consultation/ by 05
October 2021.
Further details on the event can be found at: ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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39. Leaving no one behind – How can we be more inclusive in our data?
Launch: Inclusive Data Taskforce recommendations report - 28 September
The UK Statistics Authority’s Statistics for the Public Good sets out a new vision for the UK
statistical system. A core principle of that vision is inclusivity; that our statistics reflect the
experiences of everyone in our society so that everyone counts – and that no one is forgotten.
Join us for the Inclusive Data Taskforce Report launch on Tuesday 28 September (10-11.30am) to
discover more about the Taskforce’s recommendations, the National Statistician’s response, and
our future plans.
Speakers include:
 Professor Sir Ian Diamond – National Statistician
 Dame Moira Gibb – Chair, Inclusive Data Taskforce
 Panel to be confirmed
You can register your attendance via Eventbrite
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40. Upcoming ONS events
Further details on the above events can be found at: ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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21 September 2021 – UK Business Data User Conference webinar
21 September 2021 – Stats User Network (SUN), Greenhouse Gas Emissions
During the Early Pandemic
23 September 2021 – Data Science Campus webinar: Social foundations for
statistics and machine learning, Maximilian Kasy, University
of Oxford
25 October 2021 – ONS Economic Forum
22 November 2021 – ONS Economic Forum
13 December 2021 – ONS Economic Forum