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Technology, Innovation, and Great
Power Competition
INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296
Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah
Lecture #1
21 ...
“The problem is not lack of money, lack of technology,
and certainly not lack of capable and committed people
in the US go...
Agenda
• Introductions
• Teaching Team
• Class Logistics
• The Course at a Glance
• Great Power Competition
• Instruments ...
Student Introductions
Name, Stanford Program, Interest
~30 seconds
Teaching Team
Steve Blank
● Co-creator Lean Startup
● Co-creator Hacking for Defense
● Defense Business Board
● Created I-Corps and I-Co...
Joe Felter
● Stanford Gordian Knot Center for National Security
Innovation
● Fmr US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
...
Raj Shah
● Visiting Fellow at Hoover / CISAC
● Hoover Institution, National Security Task Force
● Investor @ Shield Capita...
Class TAs
Eric Volmar
● ​JD Stanford Law ‘20,
MBA Stanford GSB ‘20
BA International
Relations Stanford ’13
● ​Hacking4Defe...
Class TAs (cont’d)
● BAH Political Science
and History
● ​Hacking4Defenseclass
of 2021, Project
Agrippa
● Experience in de...
Class TAs (cont’d)
● JD, MA International Policy
● ​Hacking4Defenseclass of
2021, Project Agrippa
● Experience in DIU-fund...
Civilian and Military Liaisons
Ms. Katharine M.R.
Beamer
Department of State
(Hoover NSAF)
Lt Col Jennifer Ann
Branigan Ca...
Class Logistics
Class Etiquette
• Complete all readings in advance
• Respect for speakers
• i.e. posture, asking questions
• No cellphone ...
Guests
• All potential guests require prior approval.
• Please email Kyle Duchynski with the guest’s name,
affiliation and...
Class Facts
• Tuesdays 5:30-8:30 PM
• Sept 21st – Nov 30th
• Office hours by appointment
• 4 credits
• Grading
• Class Par...
Class Schedule
Part I: Back to the Future: Great Power
Competition Past and Present
• Sep 21: Course Introduction
• Sep 28...
Class Disclaimers
• U.S. Centric Perspective
• Class is an MVP
• “Relentlessly Direct” Feedback (ala LLP and H4D)
• Open D...
Return of Great Power Competition
As in the past, the United States can
guarantee its own security and prosperity as
a free society only if it ensures favor...
Great powers are always searching for
opportunities to gain power over their
rivals, with hegemony as their final goal.
- ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu-HjF0AEk8
It’s Not Just the Size of Military...
… It’s Also New Technologies
“China and Russia challenge American
power, influence, and interests,
attempting to erode American security
and prosperity...
“The central challenge to U.S.
prosperity and security is the
reemergence of long-term,
strategic competition by what
the ...
Compete through 3 Lines of Effort:
• Build a Lethal Force
• Strengthen Alliances and Build
New Partnerships
• Reform the D...
National Military Strategy Mission Areas
• Respond to Threats
• Deter Strategic Attack (and
proliferation of WMD)
• Deter ...
•Preparedness
•Partnerships
•Promoting Networked Region
[1] Build a Lethal Force
[2A] Strengthen Alliances
[2B] Build New Partnerships
• Need greater performance &
affordability
• Deliver Performance at the Speed of
Relevance
• Organize for innovation
• Dri...
We must also contend with the reality that the
distribution of power across the world is changing,
creating new threats. C...
• Repossession of Taiwan and Control
of the South and East China Seas
• Agenda setting power and control
over regional ins...
Discussion Questions
Instruments of National Power
Instruments of National Power
“The means are the capabilities and resources one can bring to bear in
the effort to attain ...
Traditional Frameworks
• Interwar period (1919-1939)
• Edward Carr argued military power, economic power, and power over o...
Understanding Power in the 21st Century
• Beyond raw resources alone, look for whole-of-society measurement
• DIME-FIL amo...
• Example: nuclear arms control
• INF Treaty (1987)
• START Treaty (1991)
• CTBT (1996)
• New START Treaty (2010/2021)
• L...
[I] - Information
• “The informational instrument is
about creating, exploiting, and
disrupting knowledge.”
- Joint Doctri...
[M] - Military
• “The essence of the military
instrument is the use of force by
one party in an attempt to impose
its will...
• “The economic instrument focuses
on furthering or constraining
others’ prosperity. Economic
power is frequently consider...
• Example: Countering the financing of
terrrorism (e.g. Daesh, AQ, etc.)
• Lead USG Department / Agency:
Treasury Departme...
[I] - Intelligence
• “The products, interdisciplinary
activities, and organizations that
convert disparate data about the
...
[L] - Law Enforcement
• “The understanding and
adherence to national,
international, and local laws and
the activities to ...
Instruments of National Power for GPC
• Framework updated for Cold War and War on Terror
• America should update it again ...
Instruments of National Power
• Teams of 4-5 students focus on priority national security
challenges at intersection of DIME-FIL and emerging tech
• For...
Focus on one area in below matrix
Group Project Focus Areas
AI/ML Autonomy Cyber Semis Space Biotech Other
Diplomacy
Infor...
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
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acquisition, Mattis, Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, requirements, stanford, Steve blank, China,

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Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

  1. Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296 Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah Lecture #1 21 September 2021
  2. “The problem is not lack of money, lack of technology, and certainly not lack of capable and committed people in the US government, military and private industry. No, the real problem is a lack of imagination.” Christian Brose, Kill Chain (2020)
  3. Agenda • Introductions • Teaching Team • Class Logistics • The Course at a Glance • Great Power Competition • Instruments of National Power • Group Project Overview • Team Formation/Problem Development Mixer
  4. Student Introductions Name, Stanford Program, Interest ~30 seconds
  5. Teaching Team
  6. Steve Blank ● Co-creator Lean Startup ● Co-creator Hacking for Defense ● Defense Business Board ● Created I-Corps and I-Corps @ NSA ● Air Force Veteran 8 startups ● Semiconductors ● Supercomputers Details at www.steveblank.com ● Enterprise software ● Military intelligence
  7. Joe Felter ● Stanford Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation ● Fmr US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense ● Co-Creator Hacking for Defense ● Senior Advisor, Defense Innovation Unit ● COL (ret.), US Army Rangers and Special Forces
  8. Raj Shah ● Visiting Fellow at Hoover / CISAC ● Hoover Institution, National Security Task Force ● Investor @ Shield Capital ● Former startup CEO ● Former Managing Partner, Defense Innovation Unit ● F-16 pilot w/multiple combat tours
  9. Class TAs Eric Volmar ● ​JD Stanford Law ‘20, MBA Stanford GSB ‘20 BA International Relations Stanford ’13 ● ​Hacking4Defenseclass of 2021, Project Agrippa ● Experience in Venture Capital Investing, Technology & Start-ups, Law, Consulting, Automotive Industry David Hoyt (Head TA) dhoyt@stanford.edu
  10. Class TAs (cont’d) ● BAH Political Science and History ● ​Hacking4Defenseclass of 2021, Project Agrippa ● Experience in defense technology, think tanks, defensepolicy ● ​MS MS&E, BA Economics, CISAC Honors ● ​Hacking4Defense class of 2021, Project Agrippa ● Experience in OSD- Policy, Congress,and private equity William Healzer whealzer@stanford.edu Kyle Duchynski kyleduke@stanford.edu
  11. Class TAs (cont’d) ● JD, MA International Policy ● ​Hacking4Defenseclass of 2021, Project Agrippa ● Experience in DIU-funded cUAS start-up and various think tanks (Hoover, AEI, Hudson) Jonathan Deemer jdeemer@stanford.edu
  12. Civilian and Military Liaisons Ms. Katharine M.R. Beamer Department of State (Hoover NSAF) Lt Col Jennifer Ann Branigan Carns U.S. Air Force (Hoover NSAF) COL Drew Conover U.S. Army (Hoover NSF) LtCol Michael E. Feuquay U.S. Marine Corps (Hoover NSAF) CAPT Lushan Hannah U.S. Coast Guard (Hoover NSAF) LCDR Brian Harrington U.S. Navy (Hoover NSAF) Lt Col Oliver Lause U.S. Air Force (Hoover NSAF) Lt Col Keith B. Miller U.S. Army (Hoover NSAF) Lt Col Brandon R. Shroyer U.S. Air Force (CISAC) COL Carol M. Stauffer U.S. Army (CISAC)
  13. Class Logistics
  14. Class Etiquette • Complete all readings in advance • Respect for speakers • i.e. posture, asking questions • No cellphone use during class • Participation in discussions • Attendance is mandatory • Please email David Hoyt (dhoyt@stanford.edu) should you be unable to attend and an alternative assignment will be arranged
  15. Guests • All potential guests require prior approval. • Please email Kyle Duchynski with the guest’s name, affiliation and visit purpose (kyleduke@stanford.edu)
  16. Class Facts • Tuesdays 5:30-8:30 PM • Sept 21st – Nov 30th • Office hours by appointment • 4 credits • Grading • Class Participation: 25% • Individual paper: 25% • Final group project: 50% [Detailed breakdown to be distributed 9/22 on Canvas]
  17. Class Schedule Part I: Back to the Future: Great Power Competition Past and Present • Sep 21: Course Introduction • Sep 28: China, China, China • Oct 5: Russia and Other Rivals Part II: Technologies and Domains of Great Power Competition • Oct 12: The Fourth Industrial Revolution & The Core Technology—Semiconductors • Oct 19: Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning • Oct 26: Great Power Competition in the Cyber Domain • Nov 2: The Second Space Age: Great Power Competition in Space • Nov 9: Great Power Competition Without People: Unmanned Platforms and the Future of Conflict • Nov 16: Developing Strategy, Plans, and Resources for Great Power Competition across the USG: Challenges and Opportunities • Nov 23: Individual Group Preparation, Instructor Feedback and Mentor Session • Nov 30: Final Group Presentations and Course Recap
  18. Class Disclaimers • U.S. Centric Perspective • Class is an MVP • “Relentlessly Direct” Feedback (ala LLP and H4D) • Open Door Policy
  19. Return of Great Power Competition
  20. As in the past, the United States can guarantee its own security and prosperity as a free society only if it ensures favorable balances of power where they matter most and systematically prepares its society, economy, and allies for a protracted competition against large, capable, and determined rivals that threaten that aim.
  21. Great powers are always searching for opportunities to gain power over their rivals, with hegemony as their final goal. - Robert Mearsheimer, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”
  22. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu-HjF0AEk8
  23. It’s Not Just the Size of Military... … It’s Also New Technologies
  24. “China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.” “An America that successfully competes is the best way to prevent conflict. Just as American weakness invites challenge, American strength and confidence deters war and promotes peace.”
  25. “The central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition by what the National Security Strategy classifies as revisionist powers.”
  26. Compete through 3 Lines of Effort: • Build a Lethal Force • Strengthen Alliances and Build New Partnerships • Reform the Defense Department
  27. National Military Strategy Mission Areas • Respond to Threats • Deter Strategic Attack (and proliferation of WMD) • Deter Conventional Attack • Assure Allies and Partners • Compete Below the Level of Armed Conflict (With a Military Dimension)
  28. •Preparedness •Partnerships •Promoting Networked Region
  29. [1] Build a Lethal Force
  30. [2A] Strengthen Alliances
  31. [2B] Build New Partnerships
  32. • Need greater performance & affordability • Deliver Performance at the Speed of Relevance • Organize for innovation • Drive budget discipline and affordability to achieve solvency • Streamline rapid iterative approaches from development to fielding • Harness and protect the National Security Innovation Base [3] Reform the Department of Defense
  33. We must also contend with the reality that the distribution of power across the world is changing, creating new threats. China, in particular, has rapidly become more assertive. It is the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system. Russia remains determined to enhance its global influence and play a disruptive role on the world stage. Both Beijing and Moscow have invested heavily in efforts meant to check U.S. strengths and prevent us from defending our interests and allies around the world.
  34. • Repossession of Taiwan and Control of the South and East China Seas • Agenda setting power and control over regional institutions • Trade and investment rules set and enforced by Beijing • Weak civil society • Limited independent media • Extension of high-tech surveillance and police state • Respect for Sovereignty • Peaceful Dispute Resolution • Free and fair trade • Adherence to International Law • Open information environment • Vibrant Civil Society • Spread of democracy and individual freedoms Contrasting Visions for the Future of the Indo-Pacific
  35. Discussion Questions
  36. Instruments of National Power
  37. Instruments of National Power “The means are the capabilities and resources one can bring to bear in the effort to attain the desired strategic ends.”
  38. Traditional Frameworks • Interwar period (1919-1939) • Edward Carr argued military power, economic power, and power over opinion as key instruments of national power • Resource-based indicators (Cold War) • Composite Index of National Capability (1963) • Total population • Urban population • Iron and steel production • Energy consumption • Military personnel • Military expenditure
  39. Understanding Power in the 21st Century • Beyond raw resources alone, look for whole-of-society measurement • DIME-FIL among most common frameworks • D - Diplomacy • I - Information • M - Military • E - Economic • F - Financial • I - Intelligence • L - Law Enforcement • Technology underpins each • DIME came about in Cold War • FIL added since 9/11 to address influencing non-state actors
  40. • Example: nuclear arms control • INF Treaty (1987) • START Treaty (1991) • CTBT (1996) • New START Treaty (2010/2021) • Lead USG Department / Agency: U.S. Department of State [D] - Diplomacy • “How a nation interacts with state or non-state actors, generally to secure some form of agreement that allows the conflicting parties to coexist peacefully.” - Joint Doctrine Note 1-18
  41. [I] - Information • “The informational instrument is about creating, exploiting, and disrupting knowledge.” - Joint Doctrine Note 1-18 • Example: • Radio Free Europe during Cold War • Lead USG Department / Agency: Public Affairs departments (All Agencies - State, DoD, EOP Press Secretary, etc.)
  42. [M] - Military • “The essence of the military instrument is the use of force by one party in an attempt to impose its will on another.” - Joint Doctrine Note 1-18 • A range of force can be applied in any/multiple domain(s) • Example: Operation Desert Storm (1991) • Lead USG Department / Agency: Department of Defense
  43. • “The economic instrument focuses on furthering or constraining others’ prosperity. Economic power is frequently considered the heart of national power.” - Joint Doctrine Note 1-18 • Includes trade agreements, foreign aid, and trade embargoes and sanctions [E] - Economic • Example: Marshall Plan • Lead USG Department / Agency: Treasury Department, U.S. Trade Representative, Department of State, USAID
  44. • Example: Countering the financing of terrrorism (e.g. Daesh, AQ, etc.) • Lead USG Department / Agency: Treasury Department, Department of State [F] - Financial • “The denial of access to specified individuals or groups from a formal or informal financial system, network, or source of funding.” - Joint Force Quarterly
  45. [I] - Intelligence • “The products, interdisciplinary activities, and organizations that convert disparate data about the environment, future capabilities and intentions, and relevant actors into coherent information to provide decision advantage for decisionmakers…” - Joint Force Quarterly • Example: Cuban missile crisis, Iranian hostage situation • Lead USG Department / Agency: Intelligence Community (CIA, ODNI, DIA, NSA, etc.)
  46. [L] - Law Enforcement • “The understanding and adherence to national, international, and local laws and the activities to support or carry out the enforcement of those laws and thereby restore order.” - Joint Forces Quarterly • Example: Anti-narcotics, anti-human trafficking, Anti-Illegal Fishing • Lead USG Department / Agency: Department of State, Department of Justice, and Department of Homeland Security
  47. Instruments of National Power for GPC • Framework updated for Cold War and War on Terror • America should update it again now for Great Power Competition • Key elements a. Greater integration and coordination across elements of power b. Expansion of relevant agencies and departments i. I.e. Federal Reserve, CFIUS c. Greater emphasis on the private sector & academia
  48. Instruments of National Power
  49. • Teams of 4-5 students focus on priority national security challenges at intersection of DIME-FIL and emerging tech • Form groups Week I • Interdisciplinary groups strongly encouraged! • Develop hypotheses and test by interviewing beneficiaries, policy makers, and other key stakeholders • Worth 50% of final grade • Detailed breakdown of grade to be distributed 9/22 Group Project
  50. Focus on one area in below matrix Group Project Focus Areas AI/ML Autonomy Cyber Semis Space Biotech Other Diplomacy Information Military Economy Finance Intelligence Law

acquisition, Mattis, Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, requirements, stanford, Steve blank, China,

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