Extinction:
Past and Present
OVERVIEW

• Review	
  of	
  Ex+nc+on	
  
• Are	
  we	
  in	
  the	
  6th	
  Mass	
  ex+nc+on?	
  
• Early	
  humans	
  and	
  ex+nc+on	
  
• Can	
  organisms	
  adapt	
  to	
  changing	
  
  environments?	
  
EXTINCTION

The average species exists for "



       10
    million years"
                    "
MASS EXTINCTIONS
A mass extinction is when the
        earth loses "


       3/4           "

   of it’s species"
FOUR WAYS TO SURVIVE
MASS EXTINCTIONS

1! Have a wide geographic range"
   Marine	
  bivalves	
  that	
  	
  had	
  large	
  ranges	
  were	
  
   more	
  likely	
  to	
  survive	
  the	
  	
  cretaceous	
  ex+nc+on	
  	
  
FOUR WAYS TO SURVIVE
MASS EXTINCTIONS

2! Be lucky"
FOUR WAYS TO SURVIVE
MASS EXTINCTIONS

3! Be an omnivore or scavenger/
   Don’t rely on plants "
FOUR WAYS TO SURVIVE
MASS EXTINCTIONS

4! Hibernate or diapause "
EXTINCTION THROUGH
HISTORY
EXTINCTION NOW
EXTINCTION NOW

       Is	
  this	
  the	
  	
  


          6
                     th"



    Mass	
  Ex+nc+on?	
  
EXTINCTIONS IN MAMMALS
                                              Ex+nc+on	
  rates	
  if	
  we	
  lost	
  Vulnerable	
  (VU)	
  
 Ex#nc#ons	
  per	
  Million	
  Species	
  

                                              Endangered	
  (EN)	
  and	
  Cri+cally	
  Endangered	
  (CR)	
  	
  species	
  
               Years	
  




                                                                                                             Barnosky	
  et.al.	
  2011	
  
THE 6th MASS EXTINCTION?


                     75%	
  




                               Barnosky	
  et.al.	
  2011	
  
THE 6th MASS EXTINCTION?
Ex#nc#ons	
  per	
  Million	
  Species	
  




                                             Rate	
  of	
  ex+nc+on	
  if	
  
                                             historical	
  ex+nc+ons	
  
                                             were	
  compressed	
  
              Years	
  




                                             into	
  500	
  years	
  


                                             Actual	
  rate	
  of	
  
                                             ex+nc+on	
  (occurred	
  
                                             over	
  1000s	
  of	
  years)	
  




                                             Barnosky	
  et.al.	
  2011	
  
What is causing
   our current
extinction rates?!
The Case Of the Missing
     Mega-Fauna
HUMAN DISPERSAL ROUTES


                                            North	
  	
  




                                          America	
  	
  
          Australia	
  	
  
                              Tonga	
  
MAMMAL EXTINCTIONS




 NORTH AMERICA"
NORTH AMERICAN
MEGAFAUNA

                 5000-6000
                 6000-7000
                 7000-8000
                 8000-9000
                 9000-10,000
                 10,000-11,000
                 11,000-12,000

                 12,000-13,000
                 13,000-15,000
                 15,000-17,000
A FIELD GUIDE TO NORTH
AMERICAN MEGAFAUNA




      American	
  Mastodon	
  
                                 Giant	
  Ground	
  Sloth	
  




     Western	
  Camel	
  
                                   Wooly	
  Mammoths	
  
A FIELD GUIDE TO NORTH
AMERICAN PREDATORS




     Saber	
  Toothed	
  Cat	
     Short	
  Faced	
  Bear	
  




          Dire	
  Wolf	
  	
                          Teratorns	
  
MISSING MEGAFAUNA

 Between 12,000-9,000 mya"


        70       %	
  
                 "
  of North American
 Species Went Extinct"
EXTINCTION

•  Climate	
  warming	
  
•  Vegeta+on	
  changes	
  
•  Human	
  se;lement?	
  	
  
HUMAN DISPERSAL ROUTES
THE BERING LAND BRIDGE




     Bering	
  Land	
  Bridge	
  
HUMAN DISPERSAL ROUTES




   Mari#me	
  Route	
  



                          Overland	
  Migra+on	
  
WAS IT OVERKILL?

 Evidence	
  For	
  Human	
  Overkill:	
  
    •  Ex+nc+ons	
  coincide	
  with	
  first	
  confirmed	
  human	
  
       seZlements	
  
    •  Most	
  ex+nct	
  species	
  evolved	
  from	
  American	
  
       ancestors	
  (no	
  prior	
  contact	
  with	
  humans)	
  
 Evidence	
  Against	
  Human	
  Overkill:	
  
    •  Small	
  human	
  popula+on	
  size	
  at	
  the	
  +me	
  
    •  Few	
  human	
  archaeological	
  sites	
  with	
  ex+nct	
  
       mammal	
  remains	
  
WAS IT OVERKILL?




   AUSTRALIA!
AUSTRALIAN WILD LIFE
100,000 YEARS AGO
 Diversity	
  of	
  large	
  terrestrial	
  vertebrates	
  in	
  mid-­‐
 Pleistocene	
  (<100,000ya)	
  
 •  57	
  marsupials	
  >10kg	
  
 •  Varanid	
  lizards	
  (e.g.	
  komodo	
  dragons)	
  
 •  Large	
  flightless	
  birds	
  
FIELD GUIDE TO AUSTRALIAN
WILDLIFE
FIELD GUIDE TO AUSTRALIAN
WILDLIFE
AUSTRALIAN MARSUPIAL
EXTINCTIONS
Rep#les	
  >10	
  kg:	
  (3/3	
  ex#nct)	
  	
   Flightless	
  Birds:	
  1/3	
  	
  



Marsupials	
  	
  0	
  –	
  10	
  kg:	
  (19/19	
  ex#nct)	
  


 Marsupials	
  	
  10	
  –	
  100	
  kg:	
  (22/38	
  ex#nct)	
  
THE KINGDOM OF TONGA
THE KINGDOM OF TONGA
THE KINGDOM OF TONGA
Ex+nc+on	
  of	
  forest	
  birds	
  on	
  the	
  island	
  of	
  Eua	
  (Tonga)	
  
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
Bird	
  ex+nc+ons	
  aber	
  Polynesian	
  seZlement:	
  60	
  	
  




Bird	
  Ex+nc+ons	
  aber	
  European	
  SeZlement:	
  20-­‐25	
  	
  
THE GALAPAGOS
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS            ISLANDS!
     (colonized by humans in 1535 AD)"
                    "
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS

 Ex+nc+ons	
  before	
  1500:	
  

              0-3	
  	
  
 Ex+nc+ons	
  a"er	
  1500:	
  

                20-24
ISLANDS: EXTINCTION HOT
SPOTS
  Islands	
  outpace	
  con+nents	
  in	
  ex+nc+on	
  rates	
  
Can Species
Adapt to Human
  Selection?"
SELECTION ON
CORRELATED TRAITS




                            Feather Length"
Beak Width"




                                              Beak Depth"
              Beak Depth"
CAN PLANTS EVOLVE TO MATCH
 LOCAL CLIMATE?




                                                              Log	
  	
  (Leaf	
  Thickness)	
  
Reproduc#ve	
  Stage	
  




                                               High !                                              Low !
                                            Fitness!                                               Fitness!




                           Low !                                                                                          High !
                           Fitness!                                                                                    Fitness!


                            Log	
  	
  (Leaf	
  Number)	
                                          Log	
  	
  (Leaf	
  Number)	
  
WINDEMERE LAKE,
   ENGLAND!
FISHING IN LAKE WINDEMERE




                                                                       1963	
  :	
  	
  
                                                                      Peak	
  of	
  	
  
                                                              Gill	
  net	
  fisheries	
  

Net	
  Fisheries	
  	
  	
           No	
  Fishing	
  	
     Gill	
  Nets	
  
(12th	
  Century	
  –	
  1921)	
     1921-­‐1944	
           1944-­‐1980	
  
GROWTH RATE AND FISHING
SELECTIVE PRESSURE

 Gill	
  nets	
  	
  have	
  holes	
  of	
  a	
  standard	
  size	
  	
  



  SMALL"
 Fish	
  survive	
  this	
  ar+ficial	
  
 selec+on	
  	
  
GROWTH RATE AND FISHING
SELECTIVE PRESSURE
 Predators	
  and	
  cannibals	
  are	
  important	
  
 sources	
  of	
  mortality	
  for	
  pike	
  	
  


                 LARGE"

Fish	
  survive	
  this	
  natural	
  selec+on	
  	
  
GROWTH RATE AND FISHING
SELECTIVE PRESSURE




                          (Edelene	
  et.al.	
  2007)	
  
KEY POINTS
We aren’t quite to the 6th Mass Extinction"

  But…	
  
  Losing	
  threatened	
  species	
  
  will	
  bring	
  us	
  close	
  to	
  mass	
  
  ex+nc+on	
  levels	
  
KEY POINTS
 Prehistoric	
  humans	
  
 exploited	
  other	
  species	
  
 much	
  as	
  we	
  do	
  today	
  
CAN PLANTS EVOLVE TO MATCH
LOCAL CLIMATE?




  Island	
  	
  species	
  are	
  at	
  
  greater	
  risk	
  for	
  ex+nc+on	
  	
  
KEY POINTS
Anthropogenic change can cause artificial
selection "

 But…	
  
 When	
  leb	
  alone,	
  species	
  
 trait	
  values	
  may	
  return	
  to	
  
 their	
  previous	
  state	
  
QUESTIONS?"

Mass.extinction

  • 1.
  • 2.
    OVERVIEW • Review  of  Ex+nc+on   • Are  we  in  the  6th  Mass  ex+nc+on?   • Early  humans  and  ex+nc+on   • Can  organisms  adapt  to  changing   environments?  
  • 3.
    EXTINCTION The average speciesexists for " 10 million years" "
  • 4.
    MASS EXTINCTIONS A massextinction is when the earth loses " 3/4 " of it’s species"
  • 5.
    FOUR WAYS TOSURVIVE MASS EXTINCTIONS 1! Have a wide geographic range" Marine  bivalves  that    had  large  ranges  were   more  likely  to  survive  the    cretaceous  ex+nc+on    
  • 6.
    FOUR WAYS TOSURVIVE MASS EXTINCTIONS 2! Be lucky"
  • 7.
    FOUR WAYS TOSURVIVE MASS EXTINCTIONS 3! Be an omnivore or scavenger/ Don’t rely on plants "
  • 8.
    FOUR WAYS TOSURVIVE MASS EXTINCTIONS 4! Hibernate or diapause "
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
    EXTINCTION NOW Is  this  the     6 th" Mass  Ex+nc+on?  
  • 12.
    EXTINCTIONS IN MAMMALS Ex+nc+on  rates  if  we  lost  Vulnerable  (VU)   Ex#nc#ons  per  Million  Species   Endangered  (EN)  and  Cri+cally  Endangered  (CR)    species   Years   Barnosky  et.al.  2011  
  • 13.
    THE 6th MASSEXTINCTION? 75%   Barnosky  et.al.  2011  
  • 14.
    THE 6th MASSEXTINCTION? Ex#nc#ons  per  Million  Species   Rate  of  ex+nc+on  if   historical  ex+nc+ons   were  compressed   Years   into  500  years   Actual  rate  of   ex+nc+on  (occurred   over  1000s  of  years)   Barnosky  et.al.  2011  
  • 15.
    What is causing our current extinction rates?!
  • 16.
    The Case Ofthe Missing Mega-Fauna
  • 17.
    HUMAN DISPERSAL ROUTES North     America     Australia     Tonga  
  • 18.
  • 19.
    NORTH AMERICAN MEGAFAUNA 5000-6000 6000-7000 7000-8000 8000-9000 9000-10,000 10,000-11,000 11,000-12,000 12,000-13,000 13,000-15,000 15,000-17,000
  • 20.
    A FIELD GUIDETO NORTH AMERICAN MEGAFAUNA American  Mastodon   Giant  Ground  Sloth   Western  Camel   Wooly  Mammoths  
  • 21.
    A FIELD GUIDETO NORTH AMERICAN PREDATORS Saber  Toothed  Cat   Short  Faced  Bear   Dire  Wolf     Teratorns  
  • 22.
    MISSING MEGAFAUNA Between12,000-9,000 mya" 70 %   " of North American Species Went Extinct"
  • 23.
    EXTINCTION •  Climate  warming   •  Vegeta+on  changes   •  Human  se;lement?    
  • 24.
  • 25.
    THE BERING LANDBRIDGE Bering  Land  Bridge  
  • 26.
    HUMAN DISPERSAL ROUTES Mari#me  Route   Overland  Migra+on  
  • 27.
    WAS IT OVERKILL? Evidence  For  Human  Overkill:   •  Ex+nc+ons  coincide  with  first  confirmed  human   seZlements   •  Most  ex+nct  species  evolved  from  American   ancestors  (no  prior  contact  with  humans)   Evidence  Against  Human  Overkill:   •  Small  human  popula+on  size  at  the  +me   •  Few  human  archaeological  sites  with  ex+nct   mammal  remains  
  • 28.
  • 29.
    AUSTRALIAN WILD LIFE 100,000YEARS AGO Diversity  of  large  terrestrial  vertebrates  in  mid-­‐ Pleistocene  (<100,000ya)   •  57  marsupials  >10kg   •  Varanid  lizards  (e.g.  komodo  dragons)   •  Large  flightless  birds  
  • 30.
    FIELD GUIDE TOAUSTRALIAN WILDLIFE
  • 31.
    FIELD GUIDE TOAUSTRALIAN WILDLIFE
  • 32.
    AUSTRALIAN MARSUPIAL EXTINCTIONS Rep#les  >10  kg:  (3/3  ex#nct)     Flightless  Birds:  1/3     Marsupials    0  –  10  kg:  (19/19  ex#nct)   Marsupials    10  –  100  kg:  (22/38  ex#nct)  
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
    THE KINGDOM OFTONGA Ex+nc+on  of  forest  birds  on  the  island  of  Eua  (Tonga)  
  • 36.
    HAWAIIAN ISLANDS Bird  ex+nc+ons  aber  Polynesian  seZlement:  60     Bird  Ex+nc+ons  aber  European  SeZlement:  20-­‐25    
  • 37.
    THE GALAPAGOS GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ISLANDS! (colonized by humans in 1535 AD)" "
  • 38.
    GALAPAGOS ISLANDS Ex+nc+ons  before  1500:   0-3     Ex+nc+ons  a"er  1500:   20-24
  • 39.
    ISLANDS: EXTINCTION HOT SPOTS Islands  outpace  con+nents  in  ex+nc+on  rates  
  • 40.
    Can Species Adapt toHuman Selection?"
  • 41.
    SELECTION ON CORRELATED TRAITS Feather Length" Beak Width" Beak Depth" Beak Depth"
  • 42.
    CAN PLANTS EVOLVETO MATCH LOCAL CLIMATE? Log    (Leaf  Thickness)   Reproduc#ve  Stage   High ! Low ! Fitness! Fitness! Low ! High ! Fitness! Fitness! Log    (Leaf  Number)   Log    (Leaf  Number)  
  • 43.
  • 45.
    FISHING IN LAKEWINDEMERE 1963  :     Peak  of     Gill  net  fisheries   Net  Fisheries       No  Fishing     Gill  Nets   (12th  Century  –  1921)   1921-­‐1944   1944-­‐1980  
  • 46.
    GROWTH RATE ANDFISHING SELECTIVE PRESSURE Gill  nets    have  holes  of  a  standard  size     SMALL" Fish  survive  this  ar+ficial   selec+on    
  • 47.
    GROWTH RATE ANDFISHING SELECTIVE PRESSURE Predators  and  cannibals  are  important   sources  of  mortality  for  pike     LARGE" Fish  survive  this  natural  selec+on    
  • 48.
    GROWTH RATE ANDFISHING SELECTIVE PRESSURE (Edelene  et.al.  2007)  
  • 49.
    KEY POINTS We aren’tquite to the 6th Mass Extinction" But…   Losing  threatened  species   will  bring  us  close  to  mass   ex+nc+on  levels  
  • 50.
    KEY POINTS Prehistoric  humans   exploited  other  species   much  as  we  do  today  
  • 51.
    CAN PLANTS EVOLVETO MATCH LOCAL CLIMATE? Island    species  are  at   greater  risk  for  ex+nc+on    
  • 52.
    KEY POINTS Anthropogenic changecan cause artificial selection " But…   When  leb  alone,  species   trait  values  may  return  to   their  previous  state  
  • 53.