Check out what The PRS Group is covering in our April reports: PRS’ coverage of the Americas in April includes a fully revised report on Mexico, where President Enrique Peña Nieto is struggling to recover from scandals involving apparent police and government involvement in the murder of 43 college students in...

1. Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
APRIL COMING SOON
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in April includes a fully revised report on Mexico, where President Enrique Peña Nieto is
struggling to recover from scandals involving apparent police and government involvement in the murder of 43 college
students in the state of Guerrero last year, and, more recently, allegations that the president, his wife, and his finance
minister have purchased homes at reduced rates in return for government contracts. The president’s troubles have been
compounded by a fall in global oil prices that has delayed the appearance of tangible benefits from the liberalization of
the energy sector.
The report will examine the implications of Peña Nieto’s
difficulties for the political fortunes of the governing PRI,
which lacks a legislative majority, and it at risk of losing
ground to both the center-right PAN and the center-left
PRD heading into the second half of Peña Nieto’s six-year
term. PRS will assess what he might be able to accomplish
under those circumstances, while also discussing what can
be expected on the reform front if the outcome of the
midterm contests provides the president with a basis for
moving ahead with a liberal reform agenda.
PRS will also issue an update on Cuba that focuses on the
implications of US plans to pursue a limited normalization
of relations for the island country’s risk profile. Although the policy changes proposed by President Barack Obama do
not include a near-term lifting of the trade embargo that has been in place for more than five decades, the easing of
restrictions on travel, financial flows, and some forms of trade will bring immediate benefits for an economy threatened by
the deepening political and economic troubles in Venezuela, which for years has been a crucial source of financial support
for the Communist Party government in Havana.
The update will address potential obstacles to a more complete normalization of relations, including human rights issues
and diplomatic tensions between the US and the embattled government in Caracas, while also examining the opportunities
made possible by the changes already announced. In addition to identifying those sectors that will benefit immediately
from the partial opening by the US, the update will also assess what changes can be expected in the more general climate
for investment and trade, and how the easing of Cuba’s international isolation is likely to affect an ongoing political
transition that includes plans to hand over control of the government to a new generation of leaders in three years.
Germany heads up our coverage of Western Europe this month, as we look in detail at recent and upcoming state elections
in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia during the second half of last year, in Hamburg during February 2015 and in
Bremen this May, all of which are providing litmus tests of support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s two-party federal

2. Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
coalition comprising the centre-left Social Democratic Party alongside her own CDU/CSU center-right partnership.
Our report analyzes the shifting kaleidoscope of political opinion in light of the rise of Pergida, the anti-Islamist and
anti-immigrant movement intent on civil protest, and of Alternative for Democracy (AfD), an anti-euro party now
taking its first seats. We explain how this is shaking up the old order and influencing popular debate, and how it will
affect Germany’s role in resolving the Greek debt crisis as the euro zone’s principal architect. We also look at the investor
implications of proposed changes to the German Banking Act, the federal budget for 2015 and longer term fiscal metrics,
and ultimately to the strengths but also weaknesses in Germany’s economic trends to ascertain whether its top grade
investment potential is still warranted.
We also present an in-depth report on Switzerland this month, casting a critical eye on the federal elections to be held
in October 2015 to ascertain what the likely outcome will be and how it may impact the currency, asset prices, and the
economy. Our report looks at the main pre-electoral battlegrounds, which include Switzerland’s relations with the EU,
the environment, and the thorny topic of immigration, which remains a very important issue for voters, to the benefit of
the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, which is leading in the opinion polls.
Our report looks at recent and upcoming referenda shaping policy implementation in Switzerland’s rather unique system
of direct democracy, and we analyse the motivations for, and repercussions of, the shift in monetary policy by the Swiss
National Bank, which abandoned its ceiling for the franc-euro exchange rate in January. The reports also examines the
latest macro-risk indicators to chalk out prospective trends that may either encourage, or alternatively concern, investors
in Swiss assets.
Regional coverage of Eastern Europe includes a new report on Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s populist
Fidesz administration has adopted a somewhat more business friendly posture of late, but a U-turn on an unpopular
proposal to tax Internet usage and the imposition of restriction on Sunday shopping, under pressure from its Christian
democratic coalition partner, underscores the continued potential for unpredictable policy shifts. The report will discuss
the potential impact of the government’s loss of its claim to a super-majority in the Parliament and growing support for
the far-right Jobbik for the policy course over the remainder of the current four-year term, and what recent developments
mean for both political stability and policy continuity beyond the next general election.
Looking at the Middle East and North Africa, our April offerings include a new report on Kuwait, where growing security
concerns and a steep fall in global oil prices will command the attention of the monarchy, which has been troubled in
recent months by allegations of coup-plotting by senior members of the royal family. Rumors of dangerous divisions
in the ruling Al Sabah clan are especially troubling in light of suspicions that ISIL is mapping out a strategy to exploit
sectarian and political divisions across the region with the aim of expanding the de facto borders of its self-proclaimed
caliphate.

3. Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
Founded in 1979, the PRS Group is among the earliest commercial providers of political and country risk forecasts. Origi-
nally the Political Risk Services division of Frost & Sullivan, Inc. and then of UK-based IBC Group (now known as In-
forma), the firm occupies a niche market in the risk sector through the application of two globally recognized, proprietary,
quant-driven, and back-tested methodologies: Political Risk Services (PRS) and the International Country Risk Guide
(ICRG). A number of products based on these two risk rating systems are produced at regular intervals throughout the year.
The firm and its methodologies for assessing risk are the product of research conducted by Professors William Coplin and
Michael O’Leary of the Maxwell School of Public Affairs at Syracuse University in conjunction with the US Department
of State and the CIA. The overall goal was to develop an intellectually rigorous way of assessing the various components of
country risk that could be applied to a range of institutional settings. In the wake of the Iranian Revolution, where many
foreign firms were nationalized, the importance of the work intensified.
Our publications and data are used extensively worldwide by investors and businesses, colleges and universities, private
equity groups, and all of the main multilateral institutions.
Christopher McKee, PhD
CEO & Owner
Client Relations
Office: +1 (315) 431-0511
Fax: +1 (315) 431-0200
custserv@prsgroup.com
Headquarters
The PRS Group, Inc.
5800 Heritage Landing Dr., Ste E
East Syracuse, New York
13057-9378 U.S.A.
www.PRSgroup.com
About Us Contact
The report will examine the progress on implementation of a long-delayed liberal reform agenda since the election of
largely pro-government Parliament in July 2013, and gauge the prospects for passage of important pieces of legislation
that hold the potential to expand investment opportunities PRS will also assess the risks for the Kuwaiti regime as it
attempts to navigate the choppy political waters, which figure to become rougher still as reduced oil income increases
pressure for unpopular fiscal adjustments, including reduced spending on subsidies and possibly even the introduction of
an income tax for Kuwaiti businesses.
Turning to Africa, the spotlight will be on Kenya, where the coastal region around the port city of Mombasa remains
caught in a deadly cycle of violence fueled by supporters of Al Shabaab, the Somalia-based Islamist militant group. The
violence has inflicted significant damage to the country’s tourism industry, while the heavy-handed tactics of the security
forces risk further alienating local Muslim communities. President Uhuru Kenyatta is under growing public pressure
to deliver on his promise of tackling the security threat, but tighter anti-terrorist legislation has been condemned by
opposition leaders for undermining constitutional provisions on basic rights and free speech.
The security headache comes just months after the prosecutors at the International Criminal Court decided to drop their
case against Kenyatta for his alleged role in the ethnic violence accompanying the 2007 presidential election. The collapse
of the trial removed a major risk of executive instability stemming from the possibility that Kenyatta might be convicted.
The president is trying to boost his political capital by providing strong backing for a major corruption investigation. Five
Cabinet ministers have been forced to step down, along with 16 other high-ranking officials. But unless convictions are
secured, the move will fail to make a significant impact on Kenya’s (poor) corruption ratings.
We will review the prospects for fiscal consolidation against the budget plan for the fiscal year 2015/2016 beginning
in July. The budget deficit is estimated at 8.8% of GDP in 2014/2015, and the government is planning to reduce the
shortfall to 7.5% of GDP next year. However, the target is based on somewhat optimistic revenues projections, and
economic growth face considerable downside risks posed by the precarious security situation and possible adverse weather
conditions. That said, inflationary pressure has eased following a drop in global oil prices, and reserves stand at around
$8 billion, equivalent to 4.4 months of imports.