This document provides a summary of geopolitical risks for businesses in Q3 2023 as analyzed by APCO. It identifies headline global risks such as de-risking from China and regional integration/disintegration trends. The spotlight risk examines emerging regulatory regimes for artificial intelligence. Regional analyses identify risks in Asia Pacific, China, and other regions. Key short-term risks include economic volatility, political tensions in Northeast Asia, and elections shaping policy in Thailand and Cambodia. Medium-term risks involve divisions over Myanmar engagement testing ASEAN and the impacts of a sluggish Chinese property market. Long-term risks include the acceleration of US "de-risking" from China and China prioritizing national security over growth.

1. GEOPOLITICAL
APCO
RISK RADAR
THE GLOBAL OPERATING ENVIRONMENT IN Q3 2023

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Welcome to the APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar
(AGRR), an overview of geopolitical risks posed to
global corporations in critical operating regions.
AGRR reflects our understanding of the regional risks facing
businesses and how these risks come together at a global level.
It is intended as a baseline from which to develop strategies that
navigate and mitigate these risks. This report looks at emerging
trends for Q3 2023 and was published in July 2023.
The regional insights represent the best thinking of APCO
corporate advisory practitioners. With more than 1,000 people
across more than 30 global locations, our analysis draws on
decades of experience and insights serving corporations that
operate globally.
The final part of AGRR features our Geopolitical Conversation
Risk Index, which illustrates the attention global media gives each
risk and the degree to which Fortune 500 companies are already
acting or are likely to take action.
HEADLINE GLOBAL RISKS
TOP-LINE TRENDS
Q3 SPOTLIGHT RISK: AI EMERGING REGULATORY REGIMES
REGIONAL INSIGHTS
Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Russia & Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Latin America & Caribbean
United States & Canada
MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS & FORUMS
GEOPOLITICAL RISK INDEX
UPCOMING GLOBAL EVENTS
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2023

3. HEADLINE GLOBAL RISKS
Acute Transitory Enduring
China
• Sluggish property market threatens
consumer spending.
• U.S. “de-risking” from China accelerates
and spreads beyond tech.
• Government continues to prioritize
national security over growth.
Asia Pacific
• APAC remains susceptible to fluctuating
global economic trends.
• Political tensions in Northeast Asia
continue.
• Upcoming elections in Thailand and
Cambodia will shape domestic and
foreign policy landscapes.
• Divisions over Myanmar engagement test
ASEAN cohesion.
South Asia
• India seeks to grow regional influence
amid shifting geopolitical landscape.
• Political and economic instability
continues to roil Pakistan.
• Food security remains an enduring
challenge in Sri Lanka despite IMF bailout.
• Bangladesh faces a deteriorating
economic outlook ahead of key election.
United States & Canada
• North America avoids recession but
inflation remains a threat.
• U.S. industrial policies aimed at China
spur friction with the EU.
• U.S.-India ring in new era in relationship.
• Austerity politics surrounding
government funding increases risks
to economy.
Latin America & Caribbean
• Leaders in Latin America put Latin
America first.
• Increasingly frequent extreme weather
events pose risk to citizen livelihood
and mandates to govern.
• Incumbent governments go to
extremes to maintain control.
• U.S.-bound migration spurs
tensions along borders and in
transition states.
Western Europe
• Uncertainty persists as Russia’s war with
Ukraine alters relationships, policies,
and strains supply chains.
• Joint Communication on a European
Economic Security Strategy pushes “de-
risking” to the top of the agenda.
• The EU responds to Inflation Reduction
Act (IRA) nearshoring incentives with
push for green initiatives.
Middle East & North Africa
• Arab League reinstates Syria, marking
shift in regional dynamics.
• Regional integration spurs
infrastructure development across the
Middle East.
• Sudan civil war escalates, and economic
outlook deteriorates as trade is disrupted.
• Iran shifts focus from the West toward
Russia and China.
• Terrorism, governance divisions,
authoritarianism, and youth
unemployment in Maghreb drive civil
conflict in North Africa.
Sub-Saharan Africa
• South Africa's water crisis escalates
amidst droughts and cholera deaths.
• Rwanda secures IMF loan and pioneers
innovation ecosystem.
• Opposition leader sentenced in Senegal.
• Aging infrastructure exacerbating
Africa’s power shortages.
Russia & Eastern Europe
• Links between Russia's domestic
stability and the outcomes of the
Ukraine war are strengthening.
• Disruptive Russian policies and
responses to sanctions continue.
• Ukrainian anti-corruption reforms grow
in intensity.
• NATO’s annual summit indicates trend
toward expansion, no immediate action
on Ukraine accession.
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4. TOP-LINE TRENDS
De-risking and Supply Chains
“De-risking” has emerged as the term of choice by Western policymakers
in describing their aims vis-à-vis China. This is a rhetorical de-escalation
from “decoupling,” but perhaps more accurately portrays the approach to
China that the U.S. and EU are taking.
In the U.S., the term has been deployed by multiple policymakers in
Congress to moderate and specify the risks perceived by China to U.S.
economic security.
We saw de-risking in practice during a successful state visit by Indian
Prime Minister Modi to the U.S. The significant bilateral investment
announcements accompanying the visit sent a clear message that the U.S.
is promoting India to businesses as a manufacturing alternative to China.
In the EU, European Commission President Ursula von der Layen started
using the term in late March to illustrate the diplomatic and economic
approach the Commission will pursue to preserve productive bilateral
initiatives like climate and nonproliferation. De-risking in the EU also puts
a finer point on the challenges China’s economic system poses for the
EU, and von der Layen specified this would include the Commission more
actively deploying trade tools including an outbound investment control
mechanism for high technology.
Regional Integration and Disintegration
Pockets of regional integration are continuing as Cyprus and Egypt build
a pipeline and look to collaborate on other infrastructure projects in the
region. Infrastructure projects that spur green energy development are
also attracting attention from the climate finance community, like the Just
Energy Transition Partnership in South Africa which receives funding from
the U.S., France, Germany, the UK, and the EU.
As leaders in Latin America feel less bound by U.S.-led global order, signs
of cross-regional fragmentation are felt from trade to diplomatic relations.
Leaders in the region are prioritizing domestic interests and strengthening
more productive relationships with China and within Latin America, as
well as building ties with the EU amid a peak in interest under the Spanish
presidency of the Council of the EU.
Countries are also shifting alliances and adversaries. This trend was
evident in the agreement to restore diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia
and Iran, where China played a decisive role in concluding the agreement,
a clear diplomatic win for China in the region.
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5. As Artificial Intelligence (AI) develops at a rapid pace, national governments have started to issue proposals to regulate the technology and its applications. Discussions of the need to
regulate AI and protect against some of its potentially harmful effects are occurring in the context of heightened great power competition and geopolitical rivalry—the race to establish AI
dominance is not just between companies, but also between countries. Certain jurisdictions are taking an explicitly “pro-innovation” approach. As regional players enact new regulations,
potential exists for a bifurcation of standards across nations and political allegiances, which may lead to increased compliance costs and an uncertain operating climate. At the same
time, other governments have yet to incorporate AI into their strategy. AI will be developed, owned and controlled by countries, technologists and corporations that have the resources
to do so, while much of the world will focus on deploying these technologies to address social, economic and environmental issues.
Businesses can play a role in the global development of AI by participating actively in international standard-setting organizations like ISO and IEEE, and multilateral initiatives on AI
convening at the UN, G7, G20, and OECD, and helping governments where they operate develop best practices for AI deployment, particularly developing countries.
ASIA:
• In April, China released draft measures on generative
AI regulation, which focus on privacy, transparency
and accountability. Businesses in China are unable to
access overseas generative AI tools, unlike their global
competitors that can more easily benefit from new
large language models (LLMs). The draft regulations
in China suggest access may remain limited as the
country invests heavily in homegrown versions.
• In 2019, Singapore introduced the first high-level AI
governance framework of its kind in ASEAN.
• South Korea passed an AI draft law in February,
guaranteeing freedom to release AI products and
services. The draft law only restricts AI products if
regulators deem them harmful to people’s lives,
safety, or rights.
• Most recently, Japan launched a working group to
study Web 3 and Metaverse regulations, calling for
soft guidelines around AI, seen by some as a rebuke
against strict EU regulations.
US:
• The rapid development and deployment of AI
has raised concerns among lawmakers about how
best to manage risk and misuse while continuing
to foster innovation. Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer (D-NY) recently unveiled an AI framework
with the intention to get Congress on a path toward
comprehensive AI legislation. Meanwhile, the Biden
administration has issued voluntary guidance for AI
use, published a blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights, and
federal agencies are applying existing authorities for AI
in certain domains.
• The Biden administration is also beginning to
consider pairing restrictions on high-end chip exports
to China with restrictions on chips and software that
could have dual uses for Chinese national security
and civilian purposes.
• With bipartisan concerns around AI’s risks growing
rapidly, expect to see congressional legislative and
oversight efforts, including the FTC investigation into
Open AI and Chat GPT regarding its consumer privacy
and data protection practices. The Biden administration
will continue to provide new guidance on AI regulations
covering a broad range of industries.
EU:
• The EU has responded to growing fears about
AI technology with the Artificial Intelligence Act,
hailed by the European Parliament as the world’s
first comprehensive AI regulation. The Act takes
a risk-based approach, prohibiting ‘unacceptable
risk’ applications while ‘high risk’ systems must
undergo conformity assessment and are subject to
requirements for risk mitigation.
• The final details will be hashed out in the months
ahead, aiming for an agreement by the end of 2023.
Increased public focus on generative AI this year has
seen the European Parliament introduce provisions
on these systems and foundation models at a late
stage of the legislative process. There are also
controversial proposals for an expanded ban on facial
recognition systems.
• At the same time, national data privacy authorities
have emerged as a powerful additional source of AI
regulation in Europe. Following the subsequently
lifted ban by the Italian privacy authority on ChatGPT,
a series of other national regulators followed with
their own investigations into the system’s conformity
with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).
AI EMERGING REGULATORY REGIMES
Q3 SPOTLIGHT RISK:
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6. ASIA PACIFIC
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
APAC remains
susceptible to
fluctuating global
economic trends.
• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) downgraded its regional inflation forecast to 3.3% for 2024.
While headline inflation is moderating, global growth is poised to decelerate as rising interest rates
and the war in Ukraine weigh on economic activity.
• ASEAN, along with India and China, continues to be one of the world’s key economic growth engines.
While the growth in domestic consumption post-COVID is the key driver, the region is also benefitting
from the economic rebound of its largest trading partners, most notably China.
• Economic headwinds in China as well as weakening
consumer spending in Europe and the United States will
negatively impact APAC manufacturing, especially for
export-reliant economies.
• Global disinflation could take longer than
expected, prolonging a restrictive monetary stance
among APAC countries.
• Industrial planning objectives in Western countries aim to
reduce reliance on China and re-shore many of the value
chains currently found in Asia. This long-term shift, while
benefiting some APAC countries outside of China, may
dampen growth overall, especially in some strategic sectors.
Political tensions
in Northeast Asia
continue.
• At the G7 Summit in Hiroshima in May, the leaders’ communique condemned China’s coercive
economic practices and called for North Korean denuclearization.
• Military tension between North Korea and its adversaries continues as military exercises between
the U.S. and its allies prompted North Korea to launch two short-range ballistic missiles that entered
Japanese maritime territory.
• Taking the U.S. lead on high-tech export controls, Japan announced that it will implement
regulations on semiconductor exports to China as early as July 2023.
• In the long term, businesses in APAC must contend with
ongoing U.S.-China tensions, especially as Japan and South
Korea strengthen trilateral relations with the U.S. Countries
in the region, especially in SE Asia, will do its best to resist
pressures to choose between the two, but ultimately the
scope and scale of competition between the U.S. and China is
out of their control, leading to potential business uncertainty.
Upcoming elections
in Thailand and
Cambodia will shape
domestic and foreign
policy landscapes.
• The Move Forward Party’s victory in Thailand’s May 14 election marks a drastic shift in the country’s
political landscape, though obstacles remain in Thailand’s transition from military-backed rule.
• Cambodia’s upcoming election will likely uphold one-party rule, as long-ruling Prime Minister
Hun Sen intends to step down and hand power to his son. The lack of progressive opposition will
continue to stifle business opportunities in Cambodia, while preserving Cambodia's ties to China.
• A six-party majority coalition in Thailand may promote open
economic policies but must contend with conservative
opponents to establish a clear agenda.
• Cambodia could be subject to more sanctions in the EU if
there is demonstrable election manipulation.
Divisions over
Myanmar
engagement test
ASEAN cohesion.
• More than two years after Myanmar’s military-led coup dismantled the country’s democracy, ASEAN
continues to struggle with how to properly engage the country’s military junta.
• Since the coup took place, member countries have excluded Myanmar’s generals from attending
ASEAN-hosted summits until the junta pledges to abide by a Five Point Consensus that includes
holding inclusive dialogues, accepting external humanitarian aid, and ceasing all hostilities.
• In June Thailand’s caretaker government held informal peace talks with Myanmar’s foreign minister,
alongside representatives from Brunei, Cambodia, India, Laos, Vietnam, and China. Foreign ministers
from Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines declined to participate.
• Global business will continue to break from Myanmar.
In addition to ASEAN’s disengagement with the military
junta, leaders from the U.S., EU and other regions have
imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Myanmar. The
Thai caretaker government’s bid for legitimacy signals a
lack of ASEAN unity among member-states, which could
lead to diverging opinions on the region’s future economic
and defense policies.
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7. CHINA
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
Sluggish property
market threatens
consumer spending.
• China’s consumer spending grew in the first half of 2023, but its embattled property
market will continue to be a drag on consumer confidence in the medium to long term
as much of Chinese household wealth is held in real estate.
• Youth unemployment is at a record-high of 21.3%, which continues to dampen
willingness to spend.
• Multinationals in China are increasingly adopting the “China+n” supply chain model,
where manufacturing is partially diversified away from China.
• Consumer demand is likely to be relatively weak in
Q3, and slightly underperform against expectations
impacting the bottom lines of many businesses and
leading to cost saving activities.
• Uncertainties about the Chinese economy, the
political situation between China and the U.S. and
efforts to diversify supply chains is dampening
enthusiasm from foreign investors.
U.S. “de-risking” from
China accelerates and
spreads beyond tech.
• The U.S. and its allies have imposed export controls on strategic dual-use technologies
to China, while the U.S. plans to unveil new restrictions on investments in advanced
semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing in China.
• Expanding regulations to address forced labor requires companies with a manufacturing
presence in China to conduct thorough supply chain due diligence, creating significant
operational challenges.
• Meanwhile, China has begun taking its first significant retaliatory measures by restricting
exports of gallium and germanium, which are key semiconductor inputs.
• As advanced technologies increasingly have
both civilian and military applications, products
beyond only military use (like semiconductors) will
increasingly come under the purview of China-
focused export controls. Supply chain mapping in
China requires close communication with suppliers
and strict compliance with local regulations.
• U.S. demands on importers to document compliance
with prohibitions on products made with forced labor
may continue to intensify, and affect producers and
importers elsewhere in North America and Europe.
Government
continues to
prioritize national
security over growth.
• National security considerations continue to loom large in China’s operating
environment. The country just released a new Counter-Espionage Law placing limits on
what companies can do with “sensitive” information, which impacts freedom to operate
for businesses.
• There is a growing chasm between China’s Ministries of Commerce and Foreign Affairs
courting foreign companies on the one hand, and China’s security apparatus prioritizing
national security on the other.
• Some foreign executives are hesitant to restart visits
to China out of concern for their personal safety and
information security while they are in-country.
• Heightened national security compliance
requirements create uncertainties for foreign and
Chinese companies alike, especially those operating
in data and information heavy-sectors. Cross-border
partnerships and exchanges are likewise under
increased pressure.
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8. SOUTH ASIA Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
India seeks to
grow regional
influence amid
shifting geopolitical
landscape.
• India's G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organization presidencies this year offer a
chance to assert global leadership and forge consensus on transnational issues.
• India’s economy is expected to grow by 6% in 2023 and 6.7% in 2024, which would
make it one of the fastest-growing economies as global growth slows.
• India will leverage its leadership positions this year to attract foreign direct investment as
MNCs look to de-risk supply chains and diversify away from China.
• Businesses should look for opportunities to engage
with the G20 convenings that will take place in
September 2023.
Political and
economic instability
continues to
roil Pakistan.
• Tensions between Pakistan’s military establishment and former Prime Minister Imran
Khan reached new highs after the latter was detained by police in May on corruption
charges, leading to violent protests among Khan’s supporters and thousands of arrests.
• The deepening political crisis comes as the country teeters on the brink of default and a
stalled $6.5 billion IMF support program expires in June.
• Persistent economic and political turmoil in Pakistan
continues to undermine business confidence and
harm foreign direct investment.
Food security
remains an enduring
challenge in Sri Lanka
despite IMF bailout.
• In March, Sri Lanka’s government secured a long-awaited $2.9 billion relief loan from
the International Monetary Fund after committing to a series of reform measures. But
while inflation has pulled back by over two-thirds since its 70% peak last year, food
security remains a serious challenge. The World Food Program estimates that 30% of the
population is food insecure and in need of humanitarian assistance.
• Sri Lanka’s economic recovery will largely depend
on the government’s ability to institute meaningful
fiscal reforms, although higher taxes and reduced
public spending could trigger social unrest amid high
energy and food prices.
Bangladesh faces
a deteriorating
economic
outlook ahead
of key election.
• Following several years of high growth, Bangladesh’s economy is struggling to regain
its footing in the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—both of which
have driven up inflation, undermined the country’s foreign exchange reserves and raised
the prospect of a future debt crisis.
• Bangladesh is set to hold general elections in January 2024 with fears of political
violence looming overhead.
• The persistent threat of social and economic unrest
undermines investor confidence by creating an
environment of uncertainty and risk.
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9. MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
Arab League
reinstates Syria,
marking shift in
regional dynamics.
• The Arab League reinstated Syria's membership, providing a degree of legitimacy to
the Assad government after a 12-year suspension and MENA leaders’ campaign for re-
engagement. Constructive engagement is seen as pragmatic, but tensions persist with
neighbors, including a Jordanian airstrike against drug smugglers in Syria in early May.
• The US and Syria reportedly engaged in negotiations in Oman to discuss the ongoing
US occupation of eastern Syria. The two sides are exploring restoring relations.
• Expect reputational risks to business to decrease as
Syria rehabilitates its international relations.
Regional integration
spurs infrastructure
development across
the Middle East.
• Cyprus and Egypt are planning the construction of a subsea pipeline linking a natural
gas field in Cyprus to a gas facility in Egypt. In parallel, Israel and Cyprus are negotiating
a gas pipeline and liquefaction plant for exports to Europe.
• The I2U2 Group (consisting of India, Israel, the UAE, and the US), Saudi Arabia, and other
regional actors are discussing joint infrastructure projects to spur economic recovery
from COVID and counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The infrastructure projects
would include roads, rail, waterway connectivity, power grids, and fuel pipelines.
• The region is pushing for lower-polluting energy
sources in the short-term to ensure energy security.
The regional opposition to the Chinese BRI offers
opportunities for companies to work on infrastructure
projects that are politically attractive to the U.S.
Sudan civil war
escalates, and
economic outlook
deteriorates as trade
is disrupted.
• Sudan's escalating internecine violence between warring factions, including a rocket
attack in Khartoum, has resulted in casualties and displacement. The tenuous state
of U.S. and Saudi-sponsored truce talks exacerbates the conflict and is making
humanitarian assistance difficult.
• The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates nearly
1.4 million people have been displaced with many fleeing to neighboring countries
including Egypt, Chad, and Ethiopia, leading to broader region-wide instability.
• Sudan’s economy faces price increases, resource
shortages and halted trade as neighboring countries
seek to diversify agricultural imports. Sustained
civil strife deters foreign investment and business
development in the country.
Iran shifts focus from
the West toward
Russia and China.
• Iran has pivoted toward Russia and China and deprioritized a possible reconciliation with
the U.S., moving closer to China, even as that may further slow economic growth.
• Oman is mediating negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to discuss Iran’s nuclear
program. While the U.S. seeks a limited agreement to ease regional tensions, concerns
remain over nuclear proliferation and Israel remains skeptical of Iran’s intentions.
• Uncertainty will continue to define the business
environment in the region, as the potential for future
conflicts impact the ability to operate and trade with
the region.
Terrorism,
governance divisions,
authoritarianism, and
youth unemployment
in Maghreb drive
civil conflict in
North Africa.
• Tunisia’s swing to authoritarian rule, Libya’s sustained inability to execute planned
elections, and Algeria’s continued one-party rule will lead to continuing threats of
terrorism, amplified by widespread youth unemployment, inflation and food insecurity,
as well as the ongoing risk of renewed civil conflict in Libya.
• Last year Morocco created a new military zone bordering Algeria, heightening tensions
further. Algeria has been conducting live ammunition military exercises near the
Moroccan border.
• With the gas pipeline between Algeria and Morocco
shut down, land borders sealed, airspace closed and
diplomatic relations broken, any of these simmering
issues could lead to regional conflict.
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10. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
South Africa's
water crisis escalates
amidst droughts and
cholera deaths.
• South African droughts are expected to worsen this season with the return of El Niño,
while Northeastern Africa could see increased rainfall in weeks to come.
• Subpar water quality due to drought has also been linked to recent cholera outbreaks,
which have resulted in over 29 deaths in South Africa, Mozambique and Malawi.
• The drought will bring a reduction in crop yields,
especially maize, in South Africa and Zimbabwe. The
loss of growth will be a hard hit for Zimbabwe, the
most food insecure country in the region.
Rwanda secures
IMF loan and
pioneers innovation
ecosystem.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved Rwanda's loan and policy programs,
releasing a $98.6 million disbursement. Rwanda is the first country to secure this
funding, making it easier for the country to attract international investment and spur
economic growth.
• The UK is funding a program to promote space exploration as a recent effort to harness
innovation and promote economic development in Rwanda.
• Expect stronger trade and investment relations
between Europe and Rwanda, as companies seek to
diversify their footprints and further innovation across
sustainability sectors.
Opposition
leader sentenced
in Senegal.
• Senegal closed several of its consulates abroad following deadly protests triggered by
the sentencing of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko. At least 16 people died in clashes
between Sonko's supporters and security forces.
• Other governments in the region have called for peaceful resolution and inclusive
dialogue, encouraging Senegal President Macky Sall to foster compromise.
• Senegalese are uneasy about the potential re-election
of President Macky Sall, leading to increased tensions
and violence. Businesses can anticipate unrest
through the election.
Aging infrastructure
exacerbating Africa’s
power shortages.
• Africa continues to face severe electricity shortages which slow economic growth. Aging
infrastructure, insufficient government oversight, and skill shortages mean there is no
easy solution. The Western-funded "Just Energy Transition" aims to expand electricity
access and improve power grids in Africa.
• South Africa has turned to China for affordable solar panels, wind turbines, and
renewables technology to address its crippling energy crisis, in addition to securing
Western donations to move away from coal power generation.
• The region anticipates a difficult winter as energy
demand increases, putting pressure on the power
grid. Similar to 2022, power shortages are expected
to directly contribute to lowering the GDP of
affected nations.
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11. RUSSIA & EASTERN EUROPE
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
Links between
Russia's domestic
stability and the
outcomes of the
Ukraine war are
strengthening.
• Moscow’s fixation on regime security and the interaction between domestic and foreign policy
continues. As the disastrous war drags on, political fissures continue to emerge, while the Putin
regime looks visibly weakened and internally incoherent, as showcased by the Wagner Group’s
seizure of Rostov and Voronezh on June 24th.
• While elite squabbling serves to make Putin more indispensable as the ultimate arbiter of internal
disputes, he continues to prioritize loyalty over competence in high-level political appointees and
his regime stability over a military victory in Ukraine.
• Companies that remain in Russia will have significantly
less maneuverability, and opportunities to extract value
from their Russian assets will decrease. Domestic stability
will depend on geopolitical and military outcomes, and
consistent with the nature of the conflict over the past year,
they will be difficult to predict.
Disruptive
Russian policies
and responses to
sanctions continue.
• The Ukrainian military launched its long-anticipated counteroffensive against struggling Russian
military forces on June 4th.
• Major battlefield setbacks increase the likelihood that the Kremlin will adopt more aggressive
countermeasures, including increased violence against Ukrainian strategic infrastructure, such as
the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, as well as threatening
nonproliferation by relocating a portion of Russia’s nuclear arsenal to Belarus.
• Domestically, Russia is increasing legal and procedural hurdles to slow or halt the exit of companies
from “unfriendly” Western countries and is selectively expropriating foreign assets in industries the
Kremlin deems “strategic.”
• Russia will continue to leverage its role as a key global
supplier of grain, fertilizer and energy to win influence
among those hit hardest by high commodity prices and a
strong U.S. dollar, including South Africa, India, Turkey, and
the Global South more broadly.
• Escalation of the war in Ukraine poses a greater risk
of supply chain disruptions, unstable energy and food
prices, and further sanctions on Russia which will prompt
countermeasures that restrict foreign companies’ operations
in the country.
Ukrainian anti-
corruption reforms
grow in intensity.
• Ukrainian anti-corruption reform is a key undertaking intended to prepare the country for Euro-
Atlantic integration and law enforcement officials in Kyiv are waging a war on state and private
corruption to mitigate Western fears over graft and malfeasance stunting growth.
• Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption reforms are being praised globally, but fear is growing over recent
government initiatives targeting some of Ukraine’s largest companies and the redistribution or
nationalization of their assets.
• Some Ukrainians in civil society remain concerned that the Ukrainian government is using
corruption enforcement as a tool to consolidate the power of insiders, allowing them to reap the
benefits of Ukrainian reconstruction funds. Even-handed enforcement will be critical to maintaining
Ukraine’s credibility with the EU, the U.S. and other potential donor nations.
• Ukraine’s efforts to address corruption can help level the
playing field and protect businesses operating in the
market. However, such rapid changes in legal framework
can increase the risk of selective enforcement and
misinterpretation of emerging policies.
NATO’s annual
summit indicates
trend toward
expansion, no
immediate action on
Ukraine accession.
• The NATO summit in Vilnius highlighted the addition of Finland into the military alliance, a clear
path forward for Sweden’s accession because Turkey dropped its longstanding veto for further
expansion and NATO eliminated the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as a key admittance criteria.
• Long-time detractor Turkey dropped its veto of Sweden’s accession to joining the military alliance
on the conditions favoring Ankara’s purchase of US F-16 fighter jets for Black Sea defense and the
liberalization of visa-free travel in the EU Schengen zone.
• Ukraine secured new pledges for new offensive weaponry from France and the United States, and
reaffirmed security commitments from the NATO alliance and the G7 nations.
• Despite Ukraine’s strong desire for immediate NATO Membership, the summit concluded without
offering a clear roadmap or timeline for the country’s accession.
• Gradual NATO expansion increases the likelihood of
extreme and disruptive responses from Russia, which
has long opposed the NATO alliance. As the military and
economic scenario further deteriorates, so too will the
security of global supply chains and regional business
operations.
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12. WESTERN EUROPE
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
Uncertainty persists
as Russia’s war
with Ukraine alters
relationships,
policies, and strains
supply chains.
• The EU is increasingly focused on measures aimed at countering sanctions
circumvention via Russian-aligned companies in third countries.
• The Ukraine war has upended traditional centers of EU power, altering Germany’s
post-war economic model, based on cheap Russian energy and exports to China,
and forcing France to rethink its position on EU enlargement while boosting calls for
European sovereignty.
• Economically, the war exacerbates domestic economic issues, including the nationwide
cost of living crisis in UK driven by spiraling food and energy prices, plummeting wages
and crumbling public services, and will influence the outcomes of various upcoming
European general elections.
• On June 20, the European Commission unveiled a new multi-year, billion-Euro project to
contribute to the Reconstruction of Ukraine.
• Escalation or de-escalation in Russia’s war with
Ukraine will impact policy and supply-chain
decision-making. Businesses should stay informed
about supply chain mandates, international
sanctions compliance, and private-sector Ukrainian
reconstruction initiatives.
Joint Communication
on a European
Economic Security
Strategy pushes “de-
risking” to the top of
the agenda.
• The European Commission’s economic strategy released in June prioritizes
addressing supply chain resiliency, critical physical and cyber-security infrastructure,
technology security and leakage and the weaponization of economic dependence
or economic coercion.
• Of particular note is the Commission’s commitment to examine security risks resulting
from outbound investments, with a view to proposing possible measures to address
them by end of 2023. Also by the end of 2023, the Commission plans to present a
proposal on boosting the EU’s role for coordinating European export controls.
• The push for de-risking will put pressure on
multinational companies to balance the need to
align with EU economic security priorities on the one
hand, while also maintaining ties with targeted third
countries where they also have operations. Outbound
investments from Europe are likely to become
increasingly politicized and possibly constrained.
The EU responds to
Inflation Reduction
Act (IRA) nearshoring
incentives with push
for green initiatives.
• EU countries are concerned that a push for nearshoring U.S. manufacturing will negatively
impact European businesses in the future. Member countries are divided on how to
respond to $369 billion in U.S. subsidies for electric vehicles and other clean technologies.
• The IRA is directly impacting the European automotive and battery industries, and EU
companies are searching for countermeasures. EU countries argue that tax breaks for
U.S. consumers on electric vehicles are not aligned with WTO rules.
• Smaller EU Member States fear that larger economies like Germany may leverage their
markets to wage a subsidy war with the U.S.
• As governments incentivize lower-carbon
technologies, opportunities for businesses are
abundant in multiple jurisdictions.
• Green policy initiatives become an increasing priority
as Europe is plagued by extreme continental climate
events and record-crippling heat across Italy, Spain
and Greece.
• Businesses should prepare for escalating tensions
between the U.S. and EU regardless of whether
European economies pursue countermeasures to
U.S. subsidies.
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13. LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
Leaders in Latin
America put Latin
America first.
• From leveraging internal resources to prioritizing trade partners, regional leaders no
longer feel bound to the U.S. or global norms. They are taking ownership of how their
countries engage with others and capitalizing on the growing interest from non-Western
powers like China, Russia and India.
• Despite not being unified in their approach, each country’s strategy is underlined by
pragmatism, as seen with Chile’s nationalization of its lithium industry and Ecuador’s FTA
with China.
• Businesses should ensure their Latin America regional
teams are closely connected with headquarters to
effectively respond to geopolitical or economic risks,
as well as possible nationalization and changes in
incentives for foreign investments. Businesses also
have the opportunity to establish new partnerships
that will help them navigate and influence policy and
regulatory shifts.
Increasingly frequent
extreme weather
events pose risk to
citizen livelihood and
mandates to govern.
• This year, climate scientists warn there is a 90% chance of the cyclical climate
phenomenon known as El Niño taking hold through the end of 2023 and the first
months of 2024.
• The impact of extreme weather events in Latin America and the Caribbean is amplified
due to geography and weak infrastructure.
• El Niño and climate change are already leading to disruption impacting food security,
economic growth and migration.
• As governments in Latin America and the Western
Hemisphere begin to tackle climate change in
earnest, businesses should look for partnership
opportunities to support these efforts and improve
resilience by providing investment and expertise.
Incumbent
governments go to
extremes to maintain
control.
• Challenges to governing mandates are rising as governments face high inflation, fiscal
debt, and high rates of crime and corruption. Progressive governments are responding
with more leftist and anti-West policies, as seen in Brazil and Uruguay’s de-dollarization
of trade. Conservative governments are implementing extreme measures like Nicaragua
rendering opposition members stateless.
• Citizens respond to extreme government action with growing anti-incumbent sentiment
and greater demands for accountability, resulting in a resurgence of impeachments and
criminal trials, as seen across Ecuador, Panama and Peru in the past year.
• The persistent political turmoil increases risks and
undermines confidence in the business environment.
Government decisions can abruptly oscillate between
supporting and targeting businesses, so companies
need to have a crisis strategy and response in place.
U.S.-bound migration
spurs tensions along
borders and in
transition states.
• Title 42, the U.S. policy designed to curb migration from Latin America during COVID,
ended in May. As the U.S. establishes new legal pathways to enter the country, food
insecurity and rising crime rates in Latin America have prompted higher rates of
migration to the U.S.
• Despite the decrease in unauthorized entry to the U.S., waves of migrants are still moving
through the region. Transitory and border countries for migration like Mexico and Panama
are being hit the hardest, as their systems are strained by the backlog of migrants.
• As regional governments seek to improve economic
opportunity for workers as a way to address the
motivations behind migration, businesses should take
advantage of government incentives and programs,
especially in manufacturing and mining powerhouses
like Chile, Mexico and Peru that are already seeing
increased investment.
• We expect tension between the United States and
transitory and border countries like Mexico, Panama
and Nicaragua to rise as migration rates remain high.
While this could spur increased cooperation, it could
also impact bilateral relations.
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14. UNITED STATES & CANADA
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
North America
avoids recession
but inflation
remains a threat.
• The prospect of a so-called "soft landing" in the U.S. has increased. The U.S. labor
market remained strong through the first half of 2023, with 300,000 jobs created in June.
Canada also recorded its eighth consecutive month of job gains in April.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve is currently holding interest rates steady as it assesses the
economic outlook. U.S. growth in 2023 is expected to be 1.6% and is forecasted to fall to
1.1% in 2024.
• While the continued strength of the job market
and consumption has reduced the risk of a shallow
recession in 2023, further interest rate hikes are
likely to drag down economic growth later this year
depending on the staying power of inflation.
U.S. industrial
policies aimed at
China spur friction
with the EU.
• Federal subsidies to re-shore semiconductor manufacturing and accelerate the transition
to renewable energy in the U.S. are generating concern among European allies that
localization requirements and subsidies will disadvantage their companies.
• The U.S. and the EU are negotiating an agreement on critical minerals used in the
production of electric vehicles in exchange for EU access to tax credits offered by the
Inflation Reduction Act.
• The failure to reach an agreement or carveout for
European companies could lead the EU to retaliate
against American business and trade through
subsidies and tariffs, igniting a “green trade war.”
U.S.-India ring in new
era in relationship.
• The state visit of Indian Prime Minister Modi to the U.S. in June was a bid to strengthen
their diplomatic partnership. Deliverables from the visit include a deal for India to buy
GE jet engines that will power their fifth-generation fighter aircraft and up to 290 jets
from Boeing over the next several years as Air India airline expands.
• The outcomes focus on investment, clean energy, supply chains, and space exploration,
and the two sides also announced resolutions to six ongoing disputes at the WTO.
• The U.S. is looking to India to be a stabilizing force in
Asia, and India is looking to balance China’s influence
in the region. While the outcomes of the state visit
were promising, India remains a complex business
environment that requires careful navigation.
Austerity politics
surrounding
government
funding increases
risks to economy.
• While the U.S. Congress concluded a budget deal this quarter, the agreement bought
only a few months of time as government funding is set to expire on September 30.
• House Republicans are writing spending bills below the funding levels lawmakers
agreed to as a part of the bipartisan debt ceiling negotiations, and Senate Democrats
are writing their spending bills at the agreed-upon spending levels. The two sides will
end up about $120 billion apart, with many issues to resolve before they are able to
achieve another deal.
• While Congressional leaders usually hash out a last-
minute deal if the process does not result in one, the
new debt ceiling law mandates that starting January
1, 2024, a government funding bill will be instituted
for the remainder of the fiscal year. That would put in
place a 1% spending cut from fiscal 2023 levels for all
defense and domestic spending.
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15. MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS & FORUMS
Acute Transitory Enduring
HEADLINE RISKS IMPACT TO BUSINESSES RISK HORIZON
Achieving SDGs
by 2030 remains a
distant goal.
• The international community is notably behind schedule to achieve the SDGs by 2030.
The growing lack of consensus and scarcity of resources across multilateral organizations
exacerbates this delay, which outweighs progress achieved thus far.
• UN leaders will be looking to develop and adjust strategies to promote sustainable
change within the allotted timeframe ahead of the SDG Summit in September.
• A key part of achieving SDGs is integrating the goals
across the private sector, but only 46% of businesses
have embedded the SDGs in their core operations.
Businesses should be proactive in stakeholder
engagement and seek out opportunities to cooperate
with multilateral organizations, as well as specific
countries, to achieve these goals.
Multilateral
organizations
see heightened
polarization
intensified by the
war in Ukraine.
• The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to increased tension within international
organizations and at multilateral events. Most recently, for example, at the G7 meeting
in Hiroshima, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva refused to meet with Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Stratified multilateral relations have strengthened some alliances, like the BRICS, but there is
an overall lack of momentum to drive international cooperation at a time when collaboration
is most needed to overcome the challenges presented by these same conflicts.
• While multilateral organizations may be slower to
respond, this leaves open avenues where businesses
can use their influence to kickstart collaboration.
Companies can be a productive force in global
diplomacy by leveraging their resources for
supportive action that also helps their sector.
Upcoming Global
South leadership
of global events
will spotlight
different priorities.
• This year’s G20 is hosted by India, followed by Brazil in 2024 and South Africa in 2025.
Similarly, the UAE is hosting COP28, and Brazil has been offered to host COP30. They
will also prioritize collaboration on issues such as climate change adaptation, food
security and supply chains.
• The BRICS Summit will be held in South Africa this August, the first in-person summit in
four years for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Leaders of the global south
will convene to discuss sustainable development and inclusive multilateralism among
other topics.
• The growing role of these countries across similar multilateral events not only indicates
their increasing strategic importance and influence, but also promises to promote
alternative approaches to the current Western-led global order and give a voice to
otherwise under-represented nations.
• Businesses need to tailor their engagement strategies
to center the priorities of host countries. There
will be avenues for collaboration with civil society,
government agencies and other key stakeholders,
and businesses should pursue those opportunities
when benefits outweigh risks.
Organizations look
to implement an
Artificial Intelligence
(AI) regulatory
framework.
• Governments have started to push to accelerate the establishment of international
agreements pertaining to AI through multiple multilateral platforms. This includes the
creation of a United Nations Global Digital Compact, set to be adopted in September
2024 and the ongoing discussion within the G20 Digital Economy working group which
is expected to lead on a decision regarding its next steps on AI. In the most recent
G7 meeting, countries also agreed to create an intergovernmental forum called the
"Hiroshima AI process" to debate issues around fast-growing AI tools.
• The outcome of these multilateral discussions will
have a deep impact on AI regulation as it will set
a global standard influencing AI regulation and
therefore greatly influence investment flows and
potential growth.
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16. Food Security Issues
Electric Grid Reliability
Global Energy Supply Issues
GEOPOLITICAL RISK INDEX
APCO’s Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is
calculated by measuring:
• Media Attention: the volume, sentiment,
engagement and rate of growth for each
issue in traditional and social media
• Corporate Action: mention of or response
to each risk in the external communications
by leading corporations
• Momentum: how much the conversation
around each risk has increased or
decreased leading up to Q3 2023
Our GPRI measures conversational
engagement on key risks covered in this
report in global English language media. We
leverage natural language processing and
predictive analytics to synthesize publicly
available data from English language media
coverage, social media, company websites
and annual reports to calculate scores that
are reflected in the Index.
Q4 2022
CHANGE OVER TIME
Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023
Tariff/Non-Tariff Barriers
Mass Migration/Displacement
Climate Change/Environmental Degradation
Inflation and Wages
Political Polarization
Geo-Strategic Decoupling*
ANTICIPATING THE TRAJECTORY OF CONVERSATIONS GLOBALLY
*Topic added in Q3 2023​
(predicted)
GEOPOLITICAL RISK INDEX (GPRI)
OVERALL
GPRI
SCORE
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17. Tariff/Non-Tariff Trade Barriers:
Trade barriers became less important after Q1, indicating a potential improvement in trade relations or shifting priorities to
other pressing issues.
Global Energy Supply Issues:
Despite fluctuations, global energy supply remains a key issue, particularly in Q1 and Q3. The focus should be on diversifying
energy sources, securing supplies, and ensuring affordability and sustainability.
Political Polarization:
The scores for political polarization are relatively stable across all quarters, highlighting the persistent challenge across
nations. Policymakers must work toward bridging divisions and promoting inclusive dialogues for effective governance.
Electric Grid Reliability:
A new entry into the data set, this topic reveals a growing interest in energy infrastructure, suggesting a need for continued
investment in modernization and resilience measures.
Climate Change/Environmental Degradation:
Climate change risks have seen an upward trend in importance, with the highest score in Q3. This suggests a growing
awareness and urgency to deal with the impacts and challenges arising from climate-related events.
Food Security Issues:
Food insecurity scores are relatively stable across quarters, underlining the ongoing pressure to ensure adequate food
supply and tackle contributing factors like climate change and political instability.
Inflation and Wages:
This issue consistently received the highest scores, indicating its significant importance in all quarters. Policymakers and
businesses should be concerned about managing inflation and ensuring that wages keep pace with increasing living costs.
Mass Migration/Displacement:
With comparatively lower scores throughout the quarters, mass migration and displacement continue to be a pressing,
yet understated, global challenge. Policymakers must work collaboratively to address the underlying drivers and improve
support systems for displaced populations.
Geo-Strategic Decoupling:
Receiving its highest score in Q3, geo-strategic decoupling is becoming increasingly important, emphasizing the need to
strengthen international cooperation and foster stronger global connections.
KEY RISKS
This quarter, APCO’s Geopolitical Risk
Conversion index has added key risks
shaping the current global climate.
Examining factors such as trade
barriers, global energy supply, political
polarization, electric grid reliability,
climate change, food security, inflation
and wages, mass migration/displacement,
and geo-strategic decoupling,
we measure the implications and
opportunities for effective governance
and international cooperation.
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18. TOPIC RISK DESCRIPTION GPRI
Economic
Risks
Inflation and Wages Effects of rising prices on food, energy, real estate, and automobiles as wages stall globally.
Supply Chain Shortages
Threats of Russia/China alliance will pose interruptions in production across tech, automotive,
and apparel.
Socioeconomic Inequality Effects of wealth and education disparities on access to health care and critical social services.
Tariff/Non-Tariff Barriers Bank solvency risks due to rising interest rates, loan defaults and economic headwinds.
Talent Shortages
Government tariffs and trade restriction on commodities (aluminum, copper, lead and steel)
and strategic technologies.
Global Recession Threat*
Many countries are concerned for a global recession with increased unemployment,
decreased consumer spending, and a slowdown in economic growth worldwide.
Energy &
Environment
Risks
Global Energy Supply Issues Talent availability, cost and capacity in the wake of post-pandemic economic reconfiguration.
Climate Change/
Environmental Degradation
Effect of war in Ukraine on supply of energy and its impact on renewable energy market.
Energy Security Issues Link between economies and the risks posed by warming climates and access to clean water.
Renewable Energy
Consumption
National moves to protect against future energy price spikes by accelerating investment in
alternative sources.
Electric Grid Reliability
Extreme summer heat is straining the electric grid in China, while electricity shortages due to
aging infrastructure could curtail African GDP growth.
Technology &
Information
Security
Risks
Generative AI and
Decision-Making
Debate over the reliability and uses of generative AI across industries.
Cybersecurity Cyber risks to energy, banking, and other online and cloud-based systems.
Data Privacy Cloud-based data security and privacy.
Virtual Reality/Augmented
Reality Use*
The rise of virtual reality is unlocking new possibilities in various sectors resulting in innovative
business models.
Misinformation on
Social Media*
Misinformation on social media has become a challenge, spreading rapidly and influencing
public perception and discourse.
Human
Rights
Risk
Mass Migration/
Displacement
Political unrest, war, and asylum-seeking will increase migration to the U.S. and democratic
nations in Europe.
Maternal Health
Maternal health issues, including pre-eclampsia, maternal death, and pregnancy risks,
especially across Africa.
Reproductive Health U.S. debate over reproductive choice and access to abortion.
Food Security Issues Hunger and malnutrition affected by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Political
Risks
Political Polarization Threat of hardening geopolitical and political alliances.
Terrorism and Extremism Attention to global and domestic terrorism, extremism and societal threats.
Ukraine-Russia War
Escalation
Weakened post-Wagner Rebellion, Putin may focus on stabilizing the situation in Russia rather
than dedicating more resources to the war in Ukraine.
Geo-Strategic Decoupling*
US-EU hostility to China and Russia is mismatched with the development priorities of the
global south, making global cooperation more difficult.
HERE'S OUR DATA
This chart shows all the trend lines for
Q3 2023 and the anticipated rise and
fall of issues over the next three months.
= Strong Growth in Conversation
= Moderate Growth in Conversation
= Moderate Decline in Conversation
= Strong Decline in Conversation
PROJECTION THROUGH Q3 2023
*Topic added in Q3 2023​
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19. UPCOMING GLOBAL EVENTS
JULY
Spain takes over 6-month Presidency of the EU
July 10–19, 2023
UN High Level Political Forum | New York City, U.S.
July 11–12, 2023
NATO Summit | Vilnius, Lithuania
July 14–18, 2023
G20 Finance Ministers’ Summit | Gujarat, India
July 18, 2023
Black Sea Grain Initiative Expires
July 22, 2023
G20 Energy Ministers’ Meeting | Goa, India
July 23, 2023
Cambodia General Election
July 28–29, 2023
G20 Environment & Climate
Ministers’ Meeting | Goa, India
SEPTEMBER
September 4–7, 2023
ASEAN Summit | TBC, Indonesia
September 9–10, 2023
G20 Leaders’ Summit | New Delhi, India
September 12–30, 2023
United Nations General Assembly
(UNGA) | New York City, U.S.
September 18–19, 2023
UN SDG Summit | New York City, U.S.
September 17–24, 2023
Climate Week | New York City, U.S.
September 28, 2023
IEA Critical Minerals and Clean
Energy Summit | Paris, France
AUGUST
August 16–31, 2023
APEC SOM 3 | Seattle, Washington
August 18–19, 2023
G20 Health Ministers’ Meeting | Hyderabad, India
August 22–24, 2023
BRICS Leaders’ Summit | Johannesburg, South Africa
August 24–25, 2023
G20 Trade Ministers’ Meeting | Jaipur, India
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20. ABOUT APCO
APCO Worldwide is an advisory and advocacy communications consultancy. We partner with
organizations to help them catalyze progress, act with agility and build reputations, relationships
and solutions that enable success. APCO is an independent and majority women-owned business
and has helped clients to grow, sustain, and protect their interests for more than 35 years. Clients
typically come to APCO with complex and unconventional problems that cut across jurisdictions
and do not neatly match the competencies of traditional law firms, lobbyists, PR agencies,
management consultancies or other legacy professional services firms.
ABOUT GEO-COMMERCE
APCO’s Geo-Commerce team advises clients whose interests intersect geopolitics, commerce and
diverse stakeholder interests. The global team works across APCO’s 30+ offices, combining cross-
market insights and connectivity with knowledge of local networks and executional capabilities.
Contact us to discuss what's next:
James W. Robinson
jrobinson@apcoworldwide.com
+1 212.300.1803
apcoworldwide.com