FOSTERING ENERGY EFFICIENCY DYNAMICS THROUGH EX-ANTE STRATEGIC NICHE MANAGEMENT: THE UK PERSPECTIVE.
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Investigating potential of energy efficiency initiatives such as the “Green Deal” to contribute towards multi-dimensional sustainability in the English housing development pathways. It is indentifed that the role of stakeholders is crucial in making this a reality. First order learning is generally visible, however, second order learning is not apparent. Full stakeholders engagement - experts and non-experts, academics and non-academics, policy-makers and decision-makers, developers, regulators and end-users - can delve into greater granularity of interrelationships, forces and pressures, barriers and opportunities to direct successful sustainable transformations.
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FOSTERING ENERGY EFFICIENCY DYNAMICS THROUGH EX-ANTE STRATEGIC NICHE MANAGEMENT: THE UK PERSPECTIVE.
- 2. FOSTERING ENERGY EFFICIENCY DYNAMICS THROUGH EX-ANTE STRATEGIC NICHE MANAGEMENT: THE UK PERSPECTIVE. Renuka Thakore and Jack Goulding02/08/2016
- 3. Purpose 3 Multi-level Socio-Technical Regime for Construction/Retrofitting Analysis of the “Green Deal” dynamics Contribution to the Strategic Niche Management literature
- 4. Socio-Technical regime for Building/Retrofitting Multi-level perspective Strategic Niche Management Multi-level Socio-Technical regime 4 Socio-technical system for Buildings Regulations and policies (e.g. The Climate Change Act; The Energy Act 2011; The Green Deal) Maintenance, repairing & retrofitting (e.g. boiler; building infrastructure; roof & wall insulation) Building material and supply chain (e.g. cement; timber) Markets and user practices (e.g. green buildings; social and private ownership) Ecology and biodiversity Economic, social and cultural values Building experts and service providers Energy providers & infrastructure
- 5. Socio-Technical regime 5 Adapted from Geels (2005b) Socio-technical system for Buildings Regulations and policies (e.g. The Climate Change Act; The Energy Act 2011; The Green Deal) Maintenance, repairing & retrofitting (e.g. boiler; building infrastructure; roof & wall insulation) Building material and supply chain (e.g. cement; timber) Markets and user practices (e.g. green buildings; social and private ownership) Ecology and biodiversity Economic, social and cultural values Building experts and service providers Energy providers & infrastructure
- 6. Construction technologies Housing designs Local building practices Norms & Standards Culture Economic conditions Climatic Conditions Prices and supply in the building materials market Local expertise Training Global knowledge Best practices Construction/ Retrofitting in Building Industry Construction/ Reconstruction Policies Financial assistance scheme Size and Scale Multi- disciplinary experts Local governments Building Industry Local communities Planning Building codes Accessible for all Reduced environmental impact Energy efficiency Safety Comfort Environmental impact Architects Chartered surveyors BuildersEngineers Dimensions & Orientation Socio-Technical Regime in Building6
- 7. Multiple levels perspective 7 Source: Geels (2002) Micro Mes o Macro
- 8. A dynamic multi-level perspective8 Source: Geels (2002)
- 9. Factors for failure 9 Lack of technical stability Weak regulatory framework Societal preferences and values Lack of demand Inappropriate infrastructure for maintenance Unknown impacts of new technologies Source: Kemp et al. (1998)
- 10. Voicing and Shaping 10 Expectations & Promises Requirements Adapted from Kemp et al. (1998), Kemp and Rotmans (2001), and Geels
- 11. EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTS MICRO LEVEL MESO LEVEL (regimes) MACR0-LEVEL (Landscape) Networking 11 Adapted from Kemp et al. (1998), Kemp and Rotmans (2001), and Geels
- 12. Learning 12 Users Experts Result s First Order Learning Second Order Learning Adapted from Kemp et al. (1998), Kemp and Rotmans (2001), and Geels
- 13. Driver: Climate Change Modus Operandi The “Green Deal” dynamics13 CO2, Methane, Halocarbons, NOx, Soot
- 14. Climate Change 14 Technological and Medical advances Growth in Population, agriculture & animal husbandry CO2, Methane, Halocarbons, NOx, Soot Source: Crutzen (2002); Wilbanks et al. (2003); Bierbaum et al. (2007); IPCC (2007); Moser (2012).
- 15. Measures and Challenges 15 UK: Climate Change Act – 80% by 2050; Zero emission buildings by 2050; 87% of existing building will require extensive retrofitting Energy Act 2011 (OPSI, 2011) The “Green Deal” Source: UNEP (2009); DECC (2009); DECC (2010); DCLG (2010); European Union (2010); Boardman, 2007;
- 16. The “Green Deal” 16 The Building Directive Energy Performance Certificates “Golden Rule” “The savings in the energy bills resulted from installing energy efficiency measures should equate the cost of implementing those measures” Source: European Union (2010); Boardman, 2
- 17. 17 The “Green Deal” MODUS OPERANDI EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTS MICRO LEVEL (niche practices) MESO LEVEL (regimes) “GREEN DEAL” GOV. POLICY & VOLUNTARY MECHANISM MACR0-LEVEL (Landscape) National targets for UK 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050; Low carbon economy; Employment boom; Energy Security; Reduced risk to Climate Change UNFCCC, 1992: Stabilization of GHG emissions; Kyoto Protocol: Reduce 5.2% GHG emissions between 2008 & 2012 Hokkaido Summit, G8: Reduce 50% GHG emissions by 2050 EU Spring Council: Reduce20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels; October 2008 EU Council: 80% to 90% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels; European Council Meeting 2008: 20% reduction, EU ETS, 20% increase in renewable energy by 2020, CSC technology Socio-political & Bio-physical systems problem: Climate Change Retrofit and Replicate: £80,000 funding; 80% CO2 emissions Solar thermal and wind turbine installations: match funding by the council & government to isolated private households Warm Front Scheme (England): 2.3 m homes upgraded for energy efficiency Home Energy Conservation Act 1995; Local Councils: cut residential energy consumption by 30% and report annually Decent Homes: 40 billion funding & 1.1 m homes upgraded to Decent Homes Standard Housing market renewal pathfinders; 1.2 billion; refurbishment of poor home owners “Green Deal” Providers Installers Approved Product Suppliers Energy Company Accredited Accessors Consumers Support 1000 “Green Deal” apprentices 100,000 Jobs by 2015 14 million households & business will become energy efficient 1996-2012 2012
- 18. The “Green Deal” challenges 18 The “Green Deal” prerequisite ‘golden rule No upfront cost No guarantee for actual cash savings Actual cash savings subjected to The users’ awareness Practices, and Sense of ownership and responsibility
- 19. The “Green Deal” challenges 19 Implementation subjected to Preferences Affordability Technical specifications The local social-technical niche. Not a easy choice Voluntary
- 20. The way forward 20 Beyond the locked-in characteristic Profound changes New characteristics Source: Farmer and Guy (2005); Guy (2006); Lovell et al., (2009); Rip and Kemp (1998); Geels (2002).
- 21. Keys Construction technologies Housing designs Local building practices Norms & Standards Culture Economic conditions Climatic Conditions Prices and supply in the building materials market Local expertise Training Global knowledge Best practices Construction/ Retrofitting in Building Industry Construction/ Reconstruction Policies Financial assistance scheme Size and Scale Multi- disciplinary experts Local governments Building Industry Local communities Planning Building codes Accessible for all Reduced environmental impact Energy efficiency Safety Comfort Environmental impact Architects Chartered surveyors BuildersEngineers Dimensions & Orientation Natural lighting, Ventilation & Spatial organization Heating, ventilation & air conditioning Building fabric Lighting Water heating Microgeneration Green Deal Provider Installer Energy Provider Assessor Supplier Climate Change Act 2008 EXISTING REGIME COMPONENTS NEW REGIME COMPONENTS New characteristic Socio-Technical Regime21
- 22. Stakeholder engagement 22 • Sustainabl e products • Targets • Directives • Sustainabl e lifestyles • Sustainabl e targets Busines ses Users Supplier s Regulato rs
- 24. Summary 24 Climate change 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 The “Green Deal” Contributes towards SNM literature
- 25. Conclusion 25 The “Green Deal” Potential to contribute Role of stakeholders Second order learning Full stakeholders engagement Greater granularity
- 26. Questions26
Editor's Notes
- Hello everyone, good afternoon. I am Renuka Thakore. I am currently doing my Phd in Building Sustainability at Centre for Sustainable Development, University of Central Lancashire, United Kingdom. I started my Phd this January and the paper I am going to present today is the outcome of the literature review carried out in the investigation phase of my Phd project. Professor Jack Goulding is my Director of Studies and also the co-author of this paper. He joins me in thanking you for giving us this wonderful opportunity to present our paper in the conference.
- The United Kingdom building sector has been challenged to retrofit a enormous stock of existing buildings in order to increase its energy efficiency and adaptive capacity for climate change impacts. Addressing such challenges will require systematic structural changes in both, Socio-Technical and Socio-Political infrastructure. As a result, the UK Government has introduced a raft of initiatives; one of which is the “Green Deal”. The “Green Deal” is an innovative programme proposed to “foster energy efficiency dynamics in UK buildings”. Simultaneously, a numbers of studies have suggested the approach of strategic niche management for successful sustainable technological transitions. Thus analysing the “Green Deal” mechanism using ex-ante strategic niche management approach would help to critically assess the reforms undertaken for the programme and guide the practitioners to take improved actions. So the topic of the presentation is Fostering energy efficiency dynamic through Ex-ante strategic niche management: the UK perspective.
- The paper serves three purposes. First, the paper introduces multi-level Socio-Technical regime for construction/retrofitting in building industry. Second, the ex-ante strategic niche management approach has been applied to analyse the dynamic of “Green Deal” initiative. Thereby critically assessing technological, organisational and institutional reforms undertaken for the initiative in the processes for sustainable technological transition, and third, the paper contributes towards strategic niche management literature which lacks in practical examples in assisting practitioners in regime transition.
- The first section will introduce Socio-Technical regime for building industry and discuss theoretical concept of multi-level perspective for sustainable transition process.
- This figure represents theoretical concept of Socio-Technical regime for buildings. Accordingly a Socio-Technical regime consist of various attributes. A regime is a combination of components ranging from artefacts, material networks, infrastructure, technology, supply chain, economic regime and the lifestyles adapted to and for the artefacts. In short, when a technical regime of production and distribution incorporates the components related to the users, it is called a Socio-Technical regime. Complementarities between components make these regimes function and support societal needs for housing, mobility, food, communication and so on. Nevertheless these complementarities are equally responsible for making these regimes dynamically rigid, stable, or locked-in. Modern societies are challenged by serious problems such as increasing carbon emissions and effects of climate change. Thus, radical changes or regime transitions are necessary more than ever.
- This figure represents detailed set of complementarities between components of existing Socio-Technical regime for buildings that would have technologies and relevant technical actors developed within the regime in construction in UK.
- Multi-level perspective in transition theory suggests that the transition process occurs at three operational levels: macro, meso- and micro- embedded within three analytical concepts in a nested hierarchy: landscape, regimes and niches respectively. Landscapes are external structures, set of heterogeneous factors consisting of wider institutional adjustments. Niches are small experimental projects having support mechanism, away from the market, trying to build social networks and contribute towards the development of sustainable regimes.
- Further, on the landscape levels, changes occur gradually and put pressures on the regime. And on niche level, number of experimental projects leading to innovations too exert pressure on the regime. As time progress, the radical innovations break out of niche level into the regime level. Simultaneously, the on-going processes in regime and landscape create a window of opportunity and a new sociotechnical regime is formed.
- A number of studies have effectively analysed underlying dynamics and mechanisms responsible for technological transitions and suggest that SNM can be a valuable tool for practitioners in the transition of technological innovations into the mainstream. Various factors identified for failure of such transition are lack of technical stability, weak regulatory framework; societal preferences and values; lack of demand; incompetent infrastructure for maintenance; and unknown impacts of new technologies.
- Even so, scholars argue that radical innovations succeed. They have identified three interrelated processes for the success of such transition: One, expectations and promises perceived by the innovations should be constructively translated and communicated into requirements that are inevitable for the societal development.
- Second, networks between different levels and between different actors within the level at project as well as multi-project level (niche/s) should be created.
- And third, in line with theories governing organisation learning, actors involved in the project directly or indirectly should learn from experiences through first and second order learning process contributing towards the stability of the niche or the technology.
- Having said that, the second section will discuss climate change as one of the driver for the “Green Deal” programme and analyse the “Green Deal” Modus Operandi using ex-ante strategic niche management approach.
- While many factors influence climate, anthropogenic activities resulting from technological and medical advances; and the consequential growth of population, agriculture and animal husbandry has led to exponential increase in carbon-dioxide concentration over the past 50 years. Moreover, the burning of fossil-fuel and large-scale land-use changes, along with different energy uses, combustion and manufacturing processes, all have collectively intensified climate change.
- Recognising the responsibility of tackling climate change, the UK government has set ambitious targets to reduce carbon emissions through regulations such as the Climate Change Act which binds UK to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. Given this, all buildings would need to be zero emissions by 2050. But, UK has a large existing building stock of which 87% would still exist in 2050. It is posited that these buildings may not offer comfort, safety and resource efficiency to the users’ expectations in coming years; instead their use would have unsustainable impacts on societal development. The UK government has announced various initiatives through Energy Act 2011, of which the “Green Deal” is to enable existing building become more energy efficient using retrofitting technologies.
- Retrofitting in buildings is not a new concept; however, speedy mass retrofitting of all existing buildings to increase energy performance in accordance to the Building Directive adopted by UK in domestic sector and bringing properties to bands A and B on the Energy Performance Certificates is certainly a huge challenge. Also amongst many other things, satisfying the golden rule associated with the green deal is the most important requirement because without which the green deal plan cannot go ahead. The Golden rule is that the savings in the energy bills resulted from the installation of energy efficiency measures should equate the cost of implementing those measures.
- This figure analysis the “Green Deal” modus operandi applying ex-ante strategic niche management approach. It is observed that macro-level strategies have exerted pressure for the development of sustainable regime. At the same time, pioneering experimental projects have increased energy efficiency measures and facilitated first-order learning processes The success of experimental projects assert that it is developing essential technology and experts required for more sustainable building regime.
- However, there are several challenges faced by the Green deal to be successful because of the prerequisite golden rule. Paying no upfront cost would undoubtedly be attractive to the consumers. However, not government or the installer can guarantee actual cash savings because they are subjected to the users’ awareness, practices and sense of ownership and responsibility.
- Moreover, the implementation of energy efficiency measures in the building is subjected to owner’s preferences and affordability. Technical specifications required for energy efficiency would be difficult for a consumer to understand. The efficiency techniques would depend on the local social-technical niche and most importantly, the scheme is voluntary and the consumer is the decision maker for “Green Deal” plan.
- Strategic niche management approach states that existing regime can become more sustainable when various attributes ranging from hard physical material artefacts to the users’ soft social practices would adapt the technology going beyond the locked-in characteristic of the regime. For such sustainable transitions to occur, existing regimes have to undergo profound changes to uproot the existing mutual interdependent technological performance and social practices, which together would dictate the new characteristics of sustainable Socio-Technical regimes as shown in this figure.
- Thus the result of process changes occurs at variety of points of a complex web structures. The radical changes come first from the pioneering experimental projects that have been nourished in protected spaces. New developed characteristics of the niches would form new set of complementarities between components of Socio-Technical regime which would allow voicing and shaping of requirements, networking and first and second order learning process resulting into successful transition.
- Thus the research findings advocate the need for full engagement with stakeholders that would deliver the required dynamics highlighted in the previous figure. The building assessment model should be extended to include a greater granularity of details, particularly in the unit of analysis and metrics employed for measuring and quantifying energy efficiency sustainability indicators and in particular capable of assisting the users to take responsibilities for their own actions.
- Finally in conclusion, I would highlight few points and show how this case study has contributed towards the strategic niche management literature.
- Climate change is one of most serious problem resulted from immense anthropogenic human activities. The UK government is committed to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 but challenged to retrofit huge stock of existing buildings. Thus an innovative programme the green deal has been launched. The novel approach of using strategic niche management as an ex ante tool has been applied to analysis of the green deal dynamics.
- 25. Analysis of the “Green Deal” shows that it is a systematic coordinated response programme possessing the potential to contribute towards sustainable building regime. However, the role of stakeholders including government and consumers is very important. A strategic approach should be adopted for second order learning to maximise the benefits. Thus the need for full engagement with stakeholders is advocated. Moreover, it is posited that the delivery and dynamics highlighted in the Figure 4 should also be extended to include a greater granularity of details, particularly in the unit of analysis and metrics employed for measuring and quantifying energy efficiency sustainability indicators.
- Thank you for your attention and I invite you for questions and appreciate your feedback.