1. Recommendations for a
European Innovation Strategy
International Conference
“Innovations for the Ecological Turnaround”
Berlin, Germany (9-10 May 2012)
Dr Rafael Popper
Research Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (UK)
Innovation Director & CEO, Futures Diamond (Czech Republic)
rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk - rafael.popper@futuresdiamond.com

2. What is on the biographies of the 41 speakers
at Innovations for the Ecological Turnaround?
(Berlin, 2012)
4 of 41 speakers 1 of 41 speakers 5 of 41 speakers 26 of 41 speakers
Source: Short Biographies of Speakers at the International Conference: Innovations for the Ecological Turnaround(Top 70 keywords)

3. What is on the agenda
at Innovations for the Ecological Turnaround?
(Berlin, 2012)
Source: Top 20 keywords of the International Conference programme on Innovations for the Ecological Turnaround(Berlin, May 2012)

4. So what do we know about
Innovation Strategies?

5.  The OECD Innovation Strategy is built
around five priorities for government
action, which together can underpin a
strategic and broad-based approach to
promoting innovation for the 21st century:
 empowering people to innovate;
 unleashing innovation in firms;
 creating and applying knowledge;
 addressing global and social challenges; and
 improving the governance and measurement
of policies for innovation.

6.  €80 billionfor R&I for 2014-2020, representing 46 percent increase compared to the funding of
the EC Multi-annual Financial Framework 2007-2013 (constant 2011 prices)
 The 5 objectives of the next EU spending programme for research and innovation (R&I) will be
to contribute to the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy and to the completion of the
European Research Area.
1. Strengthening Europe's science base by
▪ (1) improving its performance in frontier research,
▪ (2) stimulating future and emerging technologies,
▪ (3) encouraging cross-border training and career development, and
▪ (4) supporting research infrastructures
2. Boosting Europe's industrial leadership and competitiveness through
▪ (1) stimulating leadership in enabling and industrial technologies,
▪ (2) improving access to risk finance, and
▪ (3) stimulating innovation in SMEs
3. Increasing the contribution of R&I to the resolution of key societal challenges
4. Providing customer-driven scientific and technical support to Union policies
5. Helping to better integrate the knowledge triangle – by combining
▪ (1) research, (2) researcher training and (3) innovation

7.  The EU Innovation Strategy is built around 4 priorities:
 Delivering growth and jobs through Innovation
▪ Making Europe more robust against the crisis (i.e. resilience)
▪ Reforming national research and innovation systems
▪ More and better EU funding for research and innovation
▪ Working in partnership to address societal challenges
▪ Maximising social and territorial cohesion
 Strengthening the knowledge base & reducing fragmentation
▪ Getting top talent for Europe (i.e. education & training systems)
▪ Delivering the European Research Area (e.g. EU Funding Instruments)
▪ European Institute of Innovation and Technology
 Getting good ideas to market
▪ Access to finance for innovation companies
▪ Protecting & enhancing the value of intellectual property & boosting creativity
▪ Accelerating and modernising standard-setting
▪ Putting the power of the public purse (i.e. public procurement) to innovation
 Leveraging EU policies externally
▪ Pooling forces to achieve breakthroughs: European Innovation Partnerships
(e.g. India, China and USA)

8.  Sustainable growth - for a resource efficient, greener
and more competitive economy
 reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20%
compared to 1990 levels by 2020
▪ The EU is prepared to go further and reduce by 30% if
other developed countries make similar commitments
and developing countries contribute according to their
abilities, as part of a comprehensive global agreement
 increasing the share of renewables in final
energy consumption to 20%
 moving towards a 20% increase in energy
efficiency

9.  The Eco-Innovation Action Plan is 1 of 32 commitments of
the the Innovation Union and includes 7 key aspects:
 Using environmental policy and legislation to promote eco-innovation
 Supporting demonstration projects and partnering to bring
promising, smart and ambitious operational technologies to market
 Developing new standards to boost eco-innovation
 Mobilising financial instruments and support services for SMEs
 Promoting international cooperation
 Supporting the development of emerging skills and jobs and related
training programmes to match labour market needs
 Promoting eco-innovation through European Innovation Partnerships

10. What do we mean by
Grand Challenges?

11. 1. Economic challenges
 need to engage business through a combination of
supply-side measures for promotion of RTD and demand-
side measures to create innovation-friendly markets –
see Aho Group Report
2. Social and environmental challenges
 causes and consequences of issues such as climate
change, food and energy security and the ageing society
 initial drive will have to come from governments
3. Science and technology
 collective ability to respond to opportunities in frontier
research
GCs must be relevant, feasible and have research dimension

12. 1. Water security and vulnerability 12. Work-life balance and mental health
2. Energy security and vulnerability 13. Science, technology and ethics
3. Health, illness and well-being 14. Crime, security and justice
4. Sustainability and climate change
15. Governance, democracy and citizenship
5. Ageing and demographic issues
16. Coexistence and conflict
6. Food security and culture
17. Social pathologies and ethics
7. Globalisation and localisation
18. Social exclusion, poverty and affluence
8. Social cohesion and diversity
9. Technological security, hazard and risk 19. Economic prosperity & growth dynamics
10. Consumption and behavioural change 20. Urban and rural dynamics
11. Innovation, knowledge& technology dynamics 21. Education and skills dynamics

13. 1. Water security and vulnerability 12. Work-life balance and mental health
2. Energy security and vulnerability 13. Science, technology and ethics
3. Health, illness and well-being 14. Crime, security and justice
4. Sustainability and climate change
15. Governance, democracy and citizenship
5. Ageing and demographic issues
16. Coexistence and conflict
6. Food security and culture
17. Social pathologies and ethics
7. Globalisation and localisation
18. Social exclusion, poverty and affluence
8. Social cohesion and diversity
9. Technological security, hazard and risk 19. Economic prosperity & growth dynamics
10. Consumption and behavioural change 20. Urban and rural dynamics
11. Innovation, knowledge& technology dynamics 21. Education and skills dynamics

14.  Need for a broad research agenda  Forward-looking
 addressing ‘wicked’ problems  Practices
 Players
 interconnecting knowledge
 Outcomes
 resolving conflicts in:
▪ definitions  Robust methodology
▪ methodology  Explanatory
▪ policy responses  Participatory
 Exploratory
 Need for a deep research agenda  Advisory
 Addressing grand challenges  Worldviews approach
 Addressing grand responses  Conservative
 Reformist
 Addressing emerging issues
 Radical
 Addressing knowledge governance
 Applying a ‘worldviews’ approach

15. Recommendations for a
European Innovation Strategy

16.  Foresight is a  Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues
 Environmental Scanning
systematic, participatory, prospect
 Horizon Scanning
ive and policy-oriented process
 ART
which, with the support of
 Anticipating
environmental and horizon  Recommending
scanning approaches, is aimed to  Transforming
actively engage key stakeholders  TEEPSE futures
into a wide range of activities  Technological
anticipating, recommending and  Economic
transforming (ART)  Environmental
 Political
technological, economic, environm
 Social
ental, political, social and ethical  Ethical
(TEEPSE) futures.

17. S.M.A.R.T.E.R.
Policy/Strategy Approach to
addressing Grand Challenges
(Popper, 2011)
4
2
5
3
1

18. ADDRESSING
GRAND CHALLENGES,
GRAND RESPONSES,
EMERGING ISSUES AND
KNOWLEDGE GOVERNANCE IN
Foresight & Horizon Scanning (FHS)

19. 1
 consensus about the need to address GCs  Classifying GCs
 huge amount of information on GCs  Economic
 problem of effective knowledge management (e.g. impact  Social &
of climate change on cities, consequences of ageing Environmental
population for workforce skills, etc.).  Science and
technology
 problem of interactions between various GCs (e.g. impact
of climate change on water and food security, impacts of  Selecting GCs
ageing on migration).  Geographical
 problem of information overload, with studies at various relevance
levels of granularity, and considerable controversy in many  RTD relevance
topics.  Socio-economic
feasibility
 problem that GCs are NOT just “big problems”. They
represent agendas for RTD, innovation and the development  Defining GCs space
of conducive environments for adoption of innovations.  Strata
 problem of classifying GCsin terms of:  Linkages
▪ Geographical relevance  Borders of strata
 Control mechanisms
▪ Knowledge domain and RTD relevance
▪ Feasibility as an economic or social investment

20. 2
 GRs to GCs will almost certainly require:
 Applying multiple
 interdisciplinary knowledge development approaches to GRs
 multi-stakeholder contributions to and  Interdisciplinary
applications of this knowledge base  Multi-stakeholder
 a policy mix of actions (developing a policy  Policy mix
roadmap that spans several traditionally distinct
policy domains).  Promoting stakeholder
engagement through:
 Far too often specific efforts to address GCs –
 Delphi surveys
such as geoengineering plans, or calls for massive
 Expert workshops
change in consumer behaviour, smart metering and
 Gaming activities
carbon taxes (all these in the context of
 Scenario building
energy/climate change challenges) – are
conceptualised in very narrow ways.  Roadmapping
 Visualisation tools
 The social resistance, technical difficulties, leads and
lags in adjustment and transition, are poorly taken  Networking tools
into account.  Etc.

21. 3
 Applying horizon scanning & issue mapping  Developing a robust
 Mapping issues against GCs and GRs emerging issues MAP
 Monitoringissues
 Assessing factors shaping the trajectories of
 Analysing issues
▪ GCs
 Positioningissues
▪ GRs
 Paying particular attention to  Mapping emerging
‘issues’ such as:
▪ Seeds of change (“weak signals”)  Weak Signals and
▪ Potential surprises (“wild cards”) potential Wild cards
 Key technologies
 Using bottom-up approaches such as surveys,  Visions & scenarios
 TEEPSE drivers
citizen panels and web-based crowdsourcing
 SWOT & GCs
for the analysis of emerging issues relevant to  Roadmaps
GCs &GRs  Models
 Etc.

22. 4
 Effective knowledge governance (KG) requires:
 Overcoming language barriers, cultural
 Identifying the right
balance of methods
differences, competition and fragmentation of knowledge
supporting:
across disciplines, professions, and localities.
 Knowledge push
 Exploiting creative
environments, commercialisation, standardisation and  Knowledge pull
innovations (technological & social)
 Using a wide range of
 Governance involves the codification of knowledge and the KG strategies:
development of mechanisms to:  Balancing
 Improve access/location interactivity
 Promote validation/evaluation
 Responding to ‘hot’
& current topics
 Assess implications for action (both present and future)
 Promoting ‘gaming’
 KG must be supported by social technologies: ▪ rating
 situating and interconnecting codified knowledge ▪ scoring
 situating and interconnecting knowledge communities ▪ user rights
 enabling better communication and networking between
▪ badges & titles
experts and stakeholders of different types ▪ Etc.

23. 5
 Effective use of ‘worldviews’ approach requires
interactive/participatory settings capable of:  A worldviews approach
can help to identify:
 Identifying key features of different worldviews
 Key features
▪ using deskwork
 Key limitations
▪ using workshops by proponents, or
 Key similarities
▪ using experts familiar with the worldviews  Key ‘boundary
▪ enabling direct comparison around specific points objects’
 Identifying key limitations in their abilities to grasp
major problems and solutions  Worldviews approach
 Identifying key points of potential agreements about  Conservative
gaps in knowledge (though not necessarily about how  Reformist
to most effectively resolve these).  Radical
 Identifying key “boundary objects” for potential  Etc.
agreement about key features of a phenomenon, and
alignment in terms of action without necessarily
achieving consensus about many other things

24. How to support
“Grand Challenges”-relevant
research and innovation?

25. Addressing Grand Challenges
44
requires a multi-method approach
Methodology
Toolkit

26. iKnow is an Innovation, Foresight and Horizon Scanning System
www.iknowfutures.eu

27. The Innovation Systems Company
www.futuresdiamond.com
“ Emerging Issues Platform
”
An interactive system to map emerging
issues, future 'shakers' (wild cards) and
'shapers' (weak signals) of
science, technology and innovation in
the world.
1
http://bank.iknowfutures.eu

28. The Innovation Systems Company
www.futuresdiamond.com
“ Horizon Scanning Platform
”
A horizon scanning system on key issues
and big picture challenges affecting the
future of the health and social care
workforce planning in the UK
2 http://www.futuresdiamond.net/cfwi

29. “ What can you do?
”
Behavioral change? If so, when?
Innovation? If so, how?
Research? Is so, what?
Thank you!

30. Recommended paper on:
The innovation effects of environmental policy instruments
— A typical case of the blind men and the elephant?
Kemp, R. and Pontoglio, S. (2011) Ecological Economics, 72, pp. 28–36

31.  “…In the OECD, companies have shifted to cleaner production and consequently end-of-
pipe solutions are no longer the most important technology for dealing with
environmental issues”
 “…the link between regulator and regulated is not unidirectional and that innovation is
affected by multiple policies…. (however) It is being observed that eco-innovation suffers
from two market failures — the public good nature of knowledge and non-
internalisation of externalities”
 “… impacts of environmental policy instruments on innovation may depend more on
design features than on the type of instrument chosen.”
 “…there is not one single best instrument to foster innovative response to environmental
regulations. According to the theoretical literature, taxes and emissions trading systems
are superior in promoting innovation than regulation. This may be true for low-cost
improvement innovations but does not appear to be true for radical innovation. There is
more evidence of regulation promoting radical innovation…”
 “…environmental policy can have both a positive and a negative influence on the
development and adoption of particular environmental innovations.”

32. [click on the images]