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Finnsight 2015 en

  1. 1. The Outlook for Science Technology and Society
  2. 2. Academy of FinlandThe Academy of Finland’s mission is to provide funding for high-levelscientific research, to offer science and science policy expertise, and Huom! Läppä 1 cm kapeampito strengthen the position of science and research. It serves all fields ofscience and research. Academy-funded basic research generates new knowledge and newexperts. The main focus of the Academy’s development efforts is onproviding career opportunities for researchers, supporting the develop-ment of high-level research environments and taking the best possibleadvantage of international opportunities.TekesTekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation, is themain public funding organisation for research and development in Finland.Tekes funds industrial projects as well as projects in research organisa-tions, and especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive projects. Foresighting provides a sound basis for Tekes’ strategic and operationalplanning. The strategic focus areas adopted by Tekes are based on jointforesighting work together with national and international stakeholders.The Academy and Tekes will use the results of FinnSight 2015 for develop-ing Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science, Technology and Innovation.
  3. 3. 1 Learning and Learning Society: The Learning panel dealt with various activities related to individual and collective competence and its reproduction: different forms of education, learning on the job and education as a business. Competence is becoming an increasingly important resource for competitiveness and welfare. Growing empha- sis is placed on the challenges of life-long, flexible learning and the need for new approaches and for multidisciplinary learning research. 2 Services and Service Innovations: New service businesses and innovations are needed in all sectors of industry and public sector. The panel set out to address the following questions: “Who are services provided for, who provides those services and in what way?” Under the pressures of population ageing, mounting competition on theHuom! Läppä 1 cm kapeampi global service markets, and other similar trends, the challenge now is to raise productivity and to make good use of new technologies. 3 Well-being and Health: The panel dealing with the health and well-being of people in Finland identified a number of areas on which the national research and product development effort should be focused in the future. Well-being is influenced both by people’s health behaviour, advances in medicine, preventive health care as well as new health care services and innovations. The well-being of children and youths is paramount. 4 Environment and Energy: Sustainable management of the environment, availability of energy, new energy solutions and en- ergy efficiency are intricately interwoven with one another and pre- sent a complex challenge for research and innovation. According to the Environment and Energy panel Finland has proven compe- tence in environmental sciences and technologies. A stronger drive is needed to make new solutions and innovations commercialised. 5 Infrastructure and Security: The panel addressed a range of infrastructure and security issues that are more and more closely intertwined in today’s increasingly technological and global envi- ronment. Potential new security threats in society include inter- national crime and pandemics. Information and energy networks may be exposed to vulnerabilities, but on the other hand security of supply and operational safety are national competitive assets.
  4. 4. 6 Bio-expertise and Bio-society: There is an ever-growing need intoday’s changing world for basic research in biosciences and for biosci-ence applications. Expertise and competence in the biofield will have greatsignificance in most sectors of industry and society. The panel heavilyemphasised the need to ensure the performance of the whole chain fromthe basic knowledge to the effective commercial application of researchoutcomes. 7 Information and Communications: This panel covered the discip- lines, technologies and practices that support the acquisition, processing and transfer of information between humans and systems. These include telecommunications technology, data mining, user interface research, neurosciences and linguistics. The panel believes that the convergence between information technology and communication may in the next few years lead to the emergence of completely new kinds of actors.8 Understanding and Human Interaction: The panel adopted an inter-disciplinary perspective on the question of “What is good for Finland?” It .emphasised the importance of human interaction both between individualsand in social and economic activity as well as the importance of multicul-tural competence in an increasingly international environment. Rather thanseeking out contrasts and differences, such as those between technologyand the human sciences, the panel’s main concern was to identify syner-gies and in this way to promote mutual understanding. 9 Materials: The panel explored various areas of competence on the use of and potential new applications for existing materials as well as avenues for the development and use of completely new materials and technologies with special consideration to international competition and ecologically sustainable raw material economy.10 Global economy: Finland and its research and innovation systemare more and more closely interconnected to the global economy, whichcrucially influences the needs and opportunities for development in busi-ness and industry and the various functions of society. The panel placedparticular emphasis on the development of new service business con-cepts, management of global risks, as well as the more effective use ofglobal knowledge in the economy, science and technology.
  5. 5. ContentForeword ..................................... 2Introduction ................................. 4Driving forces .............................. 6Results of panels 1 Learning and Learning Society ............................... 12 2 Services and Service Innovations ........................ 16 3 Well-being and Health........ 20 4 Environment and Energy ... 24 5 Infrastructure and Security... 28 6 Bio-expertise and Bio-society ......................... 32 7 Information and Communications................ 36 8 Understanding and Human Interaction .............. 40 9 Materials ............................ 4410 Global Economy ................. 48Interfaces and synergies ........... 52 I On human terms ............... 54 II Enablers – core competences and new practices ............................. 57 III Challengers – global development ...................... 61Members of panels ................... 66
  6. 6. Foreword The only way to reach the top is by joining forces The development and strength- ening of competences and innova- tions are the key to Finland’s suc- cess in the future. Cutting-edge basic and applied research cou- pled with broad-ranging expertise and competence will help to reach international excellence. Finland needs a national develop- ment strategy, a vision and com- mitment to pursue these policies as well as an understanding of the challenges that lie ahead for business and industry and society as a whole and the means with which to promote our welfare. At the beginning of 2005 the Academy of Finland, an expert organisation in basic long-term research funding, joined forces with Tekes, the Finnish Funding2_FinnSight 2015
  7. 7. Agency for Technology and Innova- own field, a broad understanding of society in general and a willingnesstion, to launch a foresight project to share their expertise. The discussions were constructive and the mem-under the heading of FinnSight bers totally committed themselves to the task. The work to identify trends2015. Its aim has been to identify and focus areas of competence continued from autumn 2005 to springfocus areas of competence for 2006. Each of the ten panels produced their own extensive reports, whichthe future in the fields of science, are compiled in Finnish in a separate FinnSight 2015 publication. This publi-technology, society and business cation summarises the main contents of the panel reports.and industry, and to establish prior- Project planning and implementation was the responsibility of a coreities among them. The project group chaired by Professor Ahti Salo from the HUT Systems Analysiswas instrumental in helping to Laboratory. Its other members were Paavo Löppönen, Director; Annamaijadefine Finland’s Strategic Centres Lehvo, Senior Science Advisor; and Anu Nuutinen, Science Advisor, allof Excellence in Science, Techno- from the Academy of Finland; and Pirjo Kyläkoski, Foresight Manager andlogy and Innovation in line with Eija Ahola, Research Manager from Tekes. The core group’s secretariesthe Government’s decision-in-prin- were Hanna Räisänen from the Academy and Sanna Ojanen from Tekes Sup-ciple of 7 April 2005 on the devel- port for the panel’s work was provided by researchers Tommi Gustafsson,opment of the public research Totti Könnölä and Ville Brummer from the HUT Systems Analysis Labora-system. Not only did the project tory and by Johanna Korhonen and Elina Ranta (summary report) of thefurther the achievement of this online newspaper Verkkotie. The summary report was compiled and editedgoal, but it also deepened the col- by Eija Ahola, Pirjo Kyläkoski, Annamaja Lehvo and Paavo Löppönen.laboration between the Academy Special thanks are due to several people who helped make theof Finland and Tekes and fostered FinnSight 2015 project possible: to Professor Aatto Prihti and Pekka Ylä-a climate of multidisciplinary de- Anttila, Research Director at the Research Institute of the Finnish Econo-bate and discussion. my ETLA for their background support; to the panel chairs who did an ex- The foresighting work was cellent job in reporting the views of their respective panels; to Johannadone in panels where leading re- Korhonen who assisted them in this task; to the project’s core group assearch and industry experts contrib- a whole; to Professor Salo for his constructive leadership of the project;uted their multidisciplinary knowl- and to the staff of his laboratory.edge and insights on the subjects Thanks also to the project steering group, which consisted of Acad-concerned. In addition, the 120 emy President Raimo Väyrynen and Veli-Pekka Saarnivaara, Director Gen-experts who were involved in the eral of Tekes; Anneli Pauli, Vice President, Research (Academy of Finland)ten panels also communicated and Martti af Heurlin, Deputy Director General (Tekes); Professor Artothe knowledge of their respective Mustajoki (University of Helsinki); and Pirjo Kyläkoski, Foresight Managernetworks. (Tekes). The FinnSight 2015 projectwas an intense undertaking. Thechairs and members of the ten Helsinki September 2006panels were jointly selected bythe Academy and Tekes. They Raimo Väyrynen Veli-Pekka Saarnivaarawere expected to have strong Academy of Finland Tekesexpertise in all aspects of their FinnSight 2015_3
  8. 8. Introduction Since the 1990s, Finland has advanced to an increasingly innovation- driven stage of development. As the rate of fixed investment declined in the wake of recession, so private and public investment in research, technology and innovation began sharply to climb. That investment is crucial to economic growth. The challenge for the future is to develop new independent science, technology and innovation policy solutions. Such is the speed of change that we now have to structurally assess our research and innovation sys- tems. Networking, new relations of cooperation and multi- and interdisci- plinarity are set to become increasingly important success factors. The impacts and effectiveness of research and innovation systems in society will also assume increasing prominence. In advanced countries the science and technology policy response to was in need of structural renewal. these challenges is to step up foresighting efforts. Foresighting has devel- Another factor working in the oped out of the cooperation between surveys of the future (and especially same direction is the increasingly drivers), strategic planning and policy analysis. The target is to identify global view taken by companies changes and challenges in the research and innovation environment and on the location not only for pro- to assess how to best respond to these changes. duction but also for research and Foresighting provides a structured platform for open and insightful dis- development functions. cussion about the future among as large a number of people as possible. A question that has received It can help to detect weak signals, opportunities and threats, to build up increasing attention in the political a common understanding of what really is important and to identify issues process is whether the invest- and measures on which decision-makers should concentrate their attention. ments made in knowledge and competence actually generate FinnSight 2015 – starting-points and targets enough economic growth, new The results of international foresights have only limited applicability in the job opportunities and welfare in national solutions adopted in Finland, but much can be learned from the Finland. At the same time, ques- methods used in foresighting. Among the countries that had conducted tions are raised about the prioriti- foresight projects before FinnSight 2015 were Japan, the UK, Germany, sation of future development France and Sweden. Furthermore, several research institutes in the Unit- efforts and funding decisions. ed States produce an abundance of future-oriented analyses on different The Government’s decision- disciplines and technologies. in-principle regarding the structur- Finland has worked consistently over a long period of time to build up al development of the country’s an advanced research and innovation system whose main strengths in- research system served as a mo- clude close cooperation and networking at all levels. In international com- tivating factor for the decision by parisons of competitiveness Finland has always performed exceptionally the Academy of Finland and Tekes well in functions related to competence. Examples include the country’s to conduct a broad and compre- highly qualified workforce, public and private investment in research and hensive foresight exercise on innovations, world-class researcher intensity and the level of technology Finnish science and technology. development and utilisation. Key objectives of this exercise At the time that the initial ideas for the FinnSight 2015 project were are a) to identify and explore the floated in 2004, it was already obvious that Finland’s public research system drivers that are expected to im-4_FinnSight 2015
  9. 9. pact Finnish business and indus-try and society at large; b) to iden-tify the challenges faced by re-search and innovation activities;and c) to identify the areas ofresearch and innovation compe-tence that promote welfare in soci-ety as well as business and indus-try competitiveness. The results ofthe foresight project support theAcademy’s strategic work andneeds to strengthen basic re-search and Tekes’ strategic focusarea planning. Furthermore, theaim is to deepen cooperationbetween the Academy and Tekesand in general to develop Finnishforesighting work.Theme selectionThe themes for FinnSight 2015were selected with the supportof expert groups that are mostdirectly relevant and important tothe Academy’s and Tekes’ opera-tions. The overarching idea was topromote of interaction: to encour-age the free flow of ideas andexpertise in the foresight process. Among the dozens of themesput forward by the Academy andTekes, those were eventually in-cluded that met the relevant cri-teria of national significance, leveland extent of competence as wellas potential socio-economic im-pacts. Half of the panelists wereappointed from among candi-dates submitted by the Academyand half among those submittedby Tekes. A full list of the panel-ists is attached as an appendix. FinnSight 2015_5
  10. 10. Driving forces way to a new international, inves- tor-driven monetary system. In old industrial countries traditional manufacturing accounts for an ever smaller proportion of econom- ic production and employment, at the same time as the role of the service sector is expanding. With the breakdown of econom- ic and communications bounda- ries around the world, nations states and regions are having to rethink their roles. Strong econom- ic growth in Asia is driving old in- dustrial countries into competition where the key success factors are innovativeness and cost efficiency. The Far East, China and India all have strong emerging econ- omies and science and technolo- gy. India in particular is now rapid- • Globalisation ly moving into areas where ad- • Demographic changes vanced industrial countries used • Science and technology to have a competitive advantage, • Sustainable development such as high technology. Closer to home, strong economic growth is • Changes in knowledge and competence expected in the new EU mem- • Changes in work and people’s mental resources bers and Russia. • Changes in the cultural environment In more and more sectors, busi- • Governance and safety and security nesses are no longer competing only locally but also in a global mar- ketplace. The growing demands for Globalisation is redistributing roles efficiency that follow with competi- There are two prominent driving forces in today’s global operating en- tion are in turn leading to a global- vironment. The first is the trend of increasing mobility: the flow of goods, isation of work and increasing money, capital, people, ideas, cultures and values across national bounda- pressures to lower costs. ries is continuing to expand. The second is the growing interdependence Finland is one of these ad- of different parts of the world, their increasing interaction and cooperation vanced economies that is losing in the economy, production, social development, communications and industrial job opportunities. With human exchange. the continuing development of Globalisation today is very much capital driven. Indeed, it has been emerging economies in science suggested that national industrial economies are collapsing and giving and technology, production and6_FinnSight 2015
  11. 11. the focus of growth in maturesectors are shifting outside of Eur-ope and the United States. Thesechanges have a major impact on Changes inemployment in Finland and on the knowledge and Sustainablecountry’s technological and eco- competence developmentnomic competitiveness. Market success, in the future, Globalisationcan no longer be achieved simply Demographic changesby means of technological innov- Changes in work Science and Changes ination, but it will require more in- and people’s technology the culturaldepth knowledge of consumers’ mental resources environmentwishes and choices and an abilityto differentiate from other productsand services. Globalisation is not Governance and safety and securityonly an economic process, but it isalso impacting social developmentas well as people’s everyday life.As far as the individual citizen isconcerned, globalisation means an World and Finnish population of working ageincreased freedom of choice bothin education, in the labour marketand in consumption. At the sametime, the daily life of individuals isincreasingly permeated by growingcomplexity, the increasing vulner- World,ability of business and the econo- billion peoplemy, instability in the work environ- Finland, million peoplement and growing cultural tensionsbetween people. Sources: UN (world forecast) Statistics Finland (Finnish forecast)Changes in the populationstructure are shaping theeconomyAccording to United Nations esti- rise very rapidly in the 2010s. These countries will need more staff in themates the world population will service sector as well as in jobs requiring high levels of education.grow from its current figure of In Finland, people of working age now take greater responsibility thanaround 6.5 billion to over 8 billion before for the welfare of children, older people and others who are not inby 2030. In almost all advanced active employment, and the dependency ratio is rising more sharply thancountries, including Finland, popu- in most other European countries.lation growth is slow, and the pro- Population ageing is significantly changing the structure of consump-portion of older people is set to tion. In particular, the demand for health and care services is soaring. FinnSight 2015_7
  12. 12. Sustainable development: a safe option for the longer term The requirement of sustainable development will have an ever greater impact on our future choic- es. As well as being ecologically sustainable, our decisions and solu- tions have to be economically vi- able, socially just and culturally valu- able. Living environments can be improved by changing established ways of doing things. Investment in competence on sustainable de- velopment is a safe option in the Information is everywhere longer term, but it is not clear how The development of science and technology is opening up new opportun- and by what means such develop- ities for innovation, which are reflected among other things in working ment can be achieved, and those practices, business processes, systemic structures and social behaviour. means are certainly not always Digital information and networks are paving the way to ubiquitous profitable in the short term. networking. Government functions and services are increasingly moving Climate change and the loss to web-based networks, which means they are accessible to all people at of biodiversity are global pro- all times and in all places. Information itself is increasingly ubiquitous. cesses that are causing increased There is increasing convergence of telecommunications networks and susceptibility to crisis. The world’s computers. Data, sound and images are now being transmitted over the ecosystems are in a state of ac- same networks. Mobile technologies are more and more widely used for celerating change as a direct re- both content production and reception and impacting the way that work sult of human activity, but we is organised. continue to know too little about Technological convergence also enables completely new ways in those changes. The world water which people can link up to networks both technologically, professionally problem is getting progressively and socially. This complex web of networks offers greater scope for a worse. The lack of clean drinking new kind of creativity. water and waste management Based on the principles of openness and sharing, the open source problems call for urgent solutions concept is continuing to gain in popularity. For those who have the know- in many parts of the world. ledge and the willingness, it offers great new opportunities for connecting The changes that are going on things in new innovative ways. in people’s living environments In the future people will be living and interacting more and more close- are also having an impact on their ly with machines, which will have the effect of changing people them- health, well-being and quality of selves. The frequency of interaction will increase, but at the same time life. Industrial products include it will become more superficial. The need for human interaction will in- ever-new chemical compounds crease, as will the need for human relations that support human matura- that have both positive and ad- tion and that provide for a sense of security. verse effects on the environment8_FinnSight 2015
  13. 13. and individuals. There is also grow- to success in this competition. Small advanced countries such as Finlanding concern about the potential have to show ever more judgement in selecting the fields where theyadverse effects of these com- want to try and reach the international excellence in research, technologypounds on a nanoscale. and innovations. These countries also have to network globally and devel- Multinational corporations will op new ways of exploiting global knowledge and competence.take on an increasingly prominent With this trend in development, the requirement is no longer simplyrole, and it is absolutely crucial that for scientific and technological competence in innovation, but regulatorythey display a responsible attitude. and cultural competencies are also needed. In the future, growing needGlobal and local environmental will be investment in developing competencies that creatively integrateissues must be managed simultan- basic scientific and technological know-how with business, cultural, legaleously. International environmental and societal competencies.agreements are gaining increasing The market for competent workforce is becoming increasingly glo-weight. The option is now available balised. Efforts must therefore be stepped up to make working and livingto impose trade restrictions on environments in one’s own country more attractive to people coming inenvironmental grounds. from the outside. At the same time, the doors must be opened to allow In energy production, therewill be an increasing drive to findmore sustainable solutions. The Science and technology variables in Finlandeconomic competitiveness of nu- Gross foreign direct investment, % of GDPclear power will increase vis-à-vis Private sector expenditure on R&D Science and engineering enrolment ratio, % of tertiary level studentsfossil fuels, but in many countries High tech exports, % of manuf. exports Researchers in R&Dthis it a major political issue. State of cluster development Researchers in R&D/million Prices of depleting natural Patent applications granted byresources such as oil, natural gas the USPTO/mil population Total expenditure for R&D, % of GDPand uranium will increase. The Patent applications University-company research collaboration granted by the USPTOscarcity of energy is placing in- Scientific and technical journal Availability of venture capital articles/mil. populationcreased pressure on energy pro- Admin. burden for start-upsduction and transportation sys-tems. Efforts shall be continued Source: World Bank Knowledge Assessment Methodology, 2005to increase the environmental effi- Science and technology variables in G7 countriesciency of industrial processes and Gross foreign direct investment, % of GDPto reduce their emission levels. Private sector expenditure on R&D Science and engineering enrolment ratio,Material reuse and recycling and High tech exports, % of tertiary level students Researchers in R&Dthe improved long-term usability of % of manuf. exportsmaterials will gain in significance. State of cluster development Researchers in R&D/million Patent applications granted by Total expenditure for R&D, % of GDPA competent workforce is the USPTO/mil population Patent applications University-company research collaborationa crucial success factor granted by the USPTO Scientific and technical journalCompetition for locations is a key Availability of venture capital articles/mil. populationfactor in global competition: cost Admin. burden for start-upslevels and the availability of a Source: World Bank Knowledge Assessment Methodology, 2005competent workforce are crucial FinnSight 2015_9
  14. 14. novation concept will continue to grow and expand with the rapid changes in earning models. The constant changes in needs are also increasing job insecurity and short-term job contracts. Increasing ubiquity is making the distinction between work and leisure increasingly blurred. Lei- sure time is increasing, but it is more unequally divided. The key workforce groups are ever more pressed for time and also have increasing purchasing power. These creative experts are critically important to our future, but more generally Finland needs to have competent people in its people to move out in search of the best education, science and technol- workforce as well as skilled craft- ogy in their own field, wherever it is in the world. speople. Organisations and their management and leadership are becoming Care professionals and service increasingly complex. People involved in network organisations are pre- providers are one of the biggest sented with growing competence challenges, most significantly with groups of experts. Where knowl- respect to the development of diversity as well as interaction, communi- edge workers operate globally, cations and social skills. People will have to adjust to changes in their job services are needed locally. For tasks at some stage of their life span, highlighting the importance and instance, tailored and flexible necessity of life-long learning. home and child care services are People who are working full-time in production in advanced countries needed. The shortage of staff in will be spending more time than before in training and education. Patterns care services is worsening. of alternation between work, study and leisure during the individual’s life Continuous changes driven by span will also be changing. Learning will increasingly take place outside multiple simultaneous factors can formal educational institutions. This means that greater attention needs to severely challenge the adaptability be paid to the development of learning environments and to ironing out of both adults and children. Re- emerging learning differences. sources need to be invested into strengthening mental well-being Open source concept set to expand and health so that the growth of Work is becoming increasingly independent of time and location. Organi- marginalisation and alienation can sations working towards the same goals may be scattered around the be prevented. Amidst all the chang- globe, managed and administered via ICT networks. es it is important to recognize the The role of motivation and incentives is set to increase even further, need for constancy in all age groups as is the importance of a motivating and inspiring climate at work. More and to make sure that the things partnerships and cooperation means more communication. This open in- people value most remain intact.10_FinnSight 2015
  15. 15. Equality in cultural Young people in particular are keen to seek ever more intense experi-encounters ences and to get them faster and more easily than before. One of the placesWith the advance of globalisation, they turn to in search of these experiences is the virtual world. Travelling willdifferent sets of values are coming assume ever greater significance as a source of adventure and experiences.into contact with one another more For reasons of Finland’s international attractiveness and competitive-and more often. The reactions of ness it is important that there is a sufficient range of cultural and adven-individuals and societies range ture services in the country. The promotion of Finnish culture also hasfrom the denial and suppression intrinsic value in this multicultural world.of diversity through approval andrespect to active efforts to promote Managing changescross-cultural interaction. Global dependence was earlier understood primarily in ecological or mili- As the need for competent tary security terms. Today, it is understood first and foremost from thepeople continues to increase with point of view of capital and investment markets, production networks andpopulation ageing, positive multi- information flows.culturalism combined with the The problems of governance and the development of new methods ofwelfare state is definitely a com- governance have changed, even though the traditional structures of econom-petitive asset. ic and military power continue to exert an underlying influence. Many of the As more and more jobs today new challenges and means of governance are related to the deepening ofare independent of time and loca- cooperation between governments and businesses and industries in whichtion and communications tech- the goal is to strengthen national competitiveness in the global competition.nology means people are readily On the other hand, governments and NGOs, which often operatereachable, the boundary between internationally or even globally, can work together to search for new solu-work and leisure is shifting. By tions to human rights problems and environmental issues, for example.2015, most people in industrial More and more often now, the globalisation of innovation and produc-countries will have access to wire- tion requires joint solutions to issue and technology-specific governanceless multilingual multimedia via issues. These may be in the form of agreements on standards, regulationvarious kinds of terminals. This and common rules. The significance of competencies in this area will con-will significantly change the way tinue to increase.that work and everyday life are States continue to remain important actors, but they now have to workorganised. more closely with other, domestic and more often international actors in seeking to safeguard national interests. There are many weak and strong signals which indicate that the role of nation-states in their traditional func- tions is increasing again. A growing proportion of the wealth in the United States, Russia, China and other countries is being spent on military security. Economic protectionism is gaining ground even in the world’s leading economies. The battle for natural resources and energy in particular is intensifying, and more and more often the adversaries in this battle are national governments and global corporations. Competencies related to governance and the assessment of systemic risks are set to gain increasing importance. These risks may have to do with international systems, finance, information and energy systems or ecological systems. FinnSight 2015_11
  16. 16. Continuous learning is crucial Focus areas of competence: • the neurological, cognitive, motivational and social basis of learning • human technologies that support learning • technology-based working and operating environments, management of mobile and distributed work • practices of life-long learning, the education system and informal learning • civic skills and competencies, life control and social innovations In today’s global and technological world, learning has become in- creasingly important to all people and all communities; it is the best way to cope and manage in a competitive and ever-changing environment. The development of learning is no longer the exclusive domain of education profession- als, but a whole host of experts from different fields are needed to organise as well as to support, produce and supervise learning. The responsibility is widely diffused in society. So great is the need for learning that the only way it can be met is by means of collaborative learning and by tak- ing advantage of the experiences of as many people as possible. Key challenges for the global in- formation society are to gain an understanding of virtual and ac- tual knowledge creation process- es, to steer and manage those processes and to integrate them with other activities.12_FinnSight 2015
  17. 17. 1 Learning and Learning SocietyThe increase in knowledgework heightens the globalcompetition for skills andcompetenciesThe world of work is in constantflux. For reasons of cost efficiency,there is a growing tendency to re-locate manufacturing in cheaperlabour countries. Increasingly, jobsthat remain in Finland are highlyknowledge-intensive, requiring highlevels of skills and competencies. The markets for skills andcompetencies are global. Exper-tise can be exported anywherein the world, wherever it is in de-mand. On the other hand, expertscan be recruited from any corner their managers may be based only on virtual contacts.of the world. Increasing numbers In short-term assignments and in mobile work it is difficult to updateof knowledge workers today work and upgrade one’s competence. This would, however, be crucial to thein short-term assignments where future employability of knowledge workers. On the other hand, it is diffi-their individual skills and expertise cult for managers of distributed organisations to support continuousare needed as part of a broader learning of individual employees and to emphasize shared learning ofproject. This has promoted mobile all employees of a team or an organisation. There is a growing need forwork and distributed organisa- flexible structures and practices of lifelong learning. Learning at work andtions. Managing distributed work new web-based social software also have an increasingly important roleis a major challenge. The commu- in competence development.nication between employees and The requirements of speed and possibilities of virtual work have empha- sised the emergence of new business models, such as open source. In- stead of strictly protecting a development work up to the launch of a prod- uct or service, the idea or project is openly discussed and collectively de- veloped from an early stage in Internet. Based on open source, anyone can contribute an idea or provide improvements in the project in order to benefit the total development. The development resources can thus be multiplied. Open source could well open up new opportunities in Finnish research and development, which continues to struggle with scarce resources – provided that these kinds of processes are properly managed and that the results can be rapidly translated into new business applications. More learning outside the domain of formal education Information technology and information networks have made learning and knowledge independent of the constraints of time and place. Information FinnSight 2015_13
  18. 18. longer be guaranteed simply by a uniform system of comprehen- sive education. To some extent equality can be enhanced by de- veloping living environments that support the universality of learn- ing in all different age groups. Learning technology to support learning of different kinds of people Technology can also provide vari- ous kinds of support for learning. It can be used to support learning in different age groups, including is created and distributed globally online via social software. Wikis, blogs older people, as well as in people and RSS services with aggregators are facilitating online learning in net- with learning difficulties. Much of works and various kinds of communities. Many young people in the IT the technology development ef- sector now consider this social software and sharing technologies as the fort so far has been driven by most important way of learning. technology itself, the thinking be- Extra-institutional learning should be integrated with formal education ing that people need to be taught at all levels so that people are not divided into two separate worlds of how to use that technology. education. On the other hand, given the growing requirements of efficiency Given the country’s high level in learning, the world of formal education also needs to adopt new modes of technological expertise, Finland of learning. is well placed to develop learning Children spend most of their time outside the school. Whether or technologies that support users not they learn during that time depends upon the environment, parents’ at different levels. This highlights resources, and the information links available. Educational equality can no the importance of a close collabo- rative effort in which technology joins forces with cognitive sci- Multidisciplinary learning, multidisciplinary research ence and artificial intelligence Living/Learning environment with a view to creating a learning - Community Organisational - Culture technology that serves its users. learning - Management - Knowledge creation Target for The key importance of learning Individual processes multidisciplinary learning - Networks and partners learning in society also underscores the research - Biology importance of learning research. - Brain + human mind Whether we are talking about indi- - Psychology Sharing technologies/ vidual, team, community or net- Technology Social software work learning, this is always a - Internet IT tools supporting - Wikis, blogs, etc. multidisciplinary process. Learn- individual learning - Tools supporting the creation and knowledge creation of organisational knowledge ing research should adopt an equally multidisciplinary approach.14_FinnSight 2015
  19. 19. 1 Learning and Learning SocietyIn order to understand individual technologies, increasing multiculturalism and the social problems facedlearning we need to explore the by both adults and young people all combine to put learning under muchhuman individual’s very own pro- pressure. Examples of these problems include the increased emotionalcessor, i.e. the brain and the hu- and neurological problems that may be caused by the continuing growthman mind. Furthermore, more in- of information flows and stimuli in the environment, such as attentiondepth knowledge is needed about deficit disorders in young people. Not enough is known as yet about thethe social and cultural processes problems caused by learning disorders in the technological environment.related to learning. With respect to organisational learning, the main focus needs to Complex technologies, the be on knowledge creation theories and the preconditions for a learningethical dilemmas related to these organisation. Technology impacts both individual and community learning by providing tools and support for the creation and distribution of knowl- edge. For individual learning to turn into community learning and collective learning, it is necessary to have an environment where the search and retrieval of new knowledge, learning and the distribution of competencies are consciously steered in the right direction by a manager or “teacher” and where human interaction is supported by culture. The various fields of learning research should be integrated and the experts working in these fields brought together. Apart from natural sciences knowledge and IT and information society competencies, steps are needed to strengthen people’s practical skills as well, such as various manual skills as well as all-round general education in children, young people and adults. Culture and the arts can serve in the role of promoting and supporting learning. FinnSight 2015_15
  20. 20. Service sector offers growth potential and new jobs The role of the service sector in Focus areas of competence: the global economy is continuing • the promotion of a customer and consumer approach to grow. At the same time there • business competence in services are mounting pressures within • the development of better housing, service and work this sector to raise productivity, to make better use of technology environments and to develop new service con- • the promotion of service exports cepts and innovations. • data security and information and communications This development is driven technology in services by ongoing changes in the global • culture and adventure services economy: the deregulation of • the renewal of public services service markets, business inter- nationalisation, population ageing, technology and growing demand in the wake of rising income lev- els as well as the development of a service culture. In Finland it is estimated that by 2015, production in the service sector will increase by one-third and the number of jobs by one- fifth. This would mean 300,000 new jobs. Services may be facing a serious shortage of labour. Technological development and productivity growth have been slower in the labour-inten- sive service sector than in manu- facturing. Productivity can be in- creased in various different ways, including the reorganisation of labour and management and the development of business compe- tence. This means the ability to create new products, new brands and service concepts and duplic- able, automated and electronic services. Key to the application of tech- nology is not only strong research and development, but also the ability of the service sector to16_FinnSight 2015
  21. 21. 2 Services and Service Innovationsimport and adopt technologiesand business models developedelsewhere. The application ofthese technologies and models inthe service sector is crucial to thefuture success of Finnish serviceproduction.Customer needs andconsumer approach ininnovation developmentA customer and consumer ap-proach is important in all services.No service business can be suc-cessful unless it takes into ac-count the consumer’s needs ing the reorganisation of such aspects of people’s everyday life as timeand desires. Customer-driven use, spending, production, consumption, and leisure, and particularly theapproaches can be developed dynamics between these different aspects.systematically. This is important In the service sector – and today the same applies of course to indus-in all fields, not just in the service try, for instance – the concept of innovation needs to be defined in broad-sector, where it is a condition for er terms so that it also takes in social innovations, such as new strategiessurvival. of action, new practices and the development of practices into routines. Customer and consumer- Service innovations are developed as, or evolve as, user innovationsdriven approaches represent a and practice innovations. Another concept that relates closely to the intro-key area of competence that ties duction and diffusion of innovations is that of social learning or with many different disciplines The emergence of new routines requires both new producers andand technologies, including mar- new consumers (e.g. the new popular pastime of Nordic walking), and onketing, business management, the other hand, a conscious effort to improve material and mental rawbusiness psychology, information materials and places as well as to develop competencies. As far as theand communications technology reproduction of service practices is concerned, consumers and producersand design. This is a multidisciplin- are in virtually the same position.ary area of expertise that inte- An understanding of consumers’ everyday life, their desires and thegrates several social and behav- dynamics between time, money, consumption and production, also pavesioural sciences as well as disci- the way to ideas that differ from the mainstream. Even quite mundaneplines that are concerned with practices and dreams may provide new, unexpected targets for develop-human action, including neuro- ment.sciences. Examples of the broad markets for service innovations are offered The service sector needs to by household services, the impacts of immigration and regional develop-have a deeper understanding of ment on the demand for services, and particularly projects for the reformthe mechanisms that lie behind of public health care services.consumers’ choices. This can be The customer-oriented and service-minded approach also impact theachieved by exploring and analys- strategies, value chains and business models applied in traditional industry. FinnSight 2015_17
  22. 22. The development of business competence offers various prac- tical applications. These include the broader use of ICTs in service businesses, the development of service marketing, as well as brand creation and brand manage- ment. In services, business com- petence should pay closer atten- tion to customers’ needs. At the same time, it should also work to generate value-added service Service exports set to become a strength area products. The development of business competence is recognized as an area of Finland is well placed to be- key importance in several different sectors in Finland. The service sector come a major exporter of technol- is no exception. Business competence can be understood as comprising ogy services. For reasons of in- not only the development of new business models, but also the adoption dustrial competitiveness it is ex- and application of models that have been developed and proven else- tremely important that the export where. of technology services becomes This has to do with marketing, business management, production a growth sector. In public ser- economics, economic sociology, information technology and logistics. vices, too, there are probably New services are created in all these sectors, with far-reaching benefits many functions and activities that for Finnish business and industry. There are thus two dimensions to busi- can be rationalised with the use ness competence in the service sector: on the one hand it is a prerequis- of information technology. Admin- ite for the development of profitable, innovative service business, and istrative back office functions are on the other hand this competence provides a platform for service busi- a case in point. nesses. Areas of particular strength for Finnish exports might include so- cial services, international general purpose services as well as envi- Employment by main industry in Finland ronmental services and technol- ogy. Services related to informa- Public services tion security technology and information and communication Private services systems might also provide new Building and construction export opportunities for Finland. Culture and adventure services Manufacturing are a growing field where technol- ogy and business competence Primary production have great importance.18_FinnSight 2015
  23. 23. 2 Services and Service InnovationsService productionrequires a sound operatingenvironmentThe development of better envi-ronments is a focus area thatrequires the contribution and in-put of architecture, urban andcommunity planning and logistics.However, a number of other fieldsare also closely involved; theseinclude design, consumer psy-chology, sociology, marketing andconsumer research, culture andart history and environmental aes-thetics. Technologies that cancontribute include the technologyof design, environmental technol-ogy as well as housing and livingenvironment technologies. Better environments are oneway of responding to changingneeds and demands and strength-ening the competitiveness and ap-peal of Finland. There is a very clearneed now to enhance people’s im-material well-being, to create moreaesthetic and pleasing environ-ments, to improve living and workenvironments. These changes arealready visible in consumer behav-iour, and there is reason to believethat they will gather further mo-mentum in the future if incomelevels continue to rise as expected. Finland has every opportunity well-tended everyday environments and related environmental servicesto become a competitive model as well as solutions based on modern environmental for good housing and It is important that the solutions adopted are in line with the close-to-good living environments where nature lifestyle that people in Finland have chosen for themselves. Theall people, regardless of where notion of a quiet, clean and safe Finland or Helsinki will certainly farethey live, have access to pleasant, better than any attempt to turn this into a “swinging metropolis” . FinnSight 2015_19
  24. 24. The reform of health care system Public health in Finland has con- Focus areas of competence: tinuously improved. Life expect- • biomedical research ancy has increased, and at the • brain and neuro research same time functional limitations • the development of ICTs that promote public health and disabilities due to diseases have continued to decrease. Self- • physical exercise and nutrition research perceived health has improved • mental health and substance abuse research most particularly in middle-aged • home care and telecare technologies groups. It is expected that these • pharmaceuticals research same trends will continue over • research supporting the social and health care system the next few years, which can at least in part be attributed to an efficient health care system. However, that system is now in need of reform, for several reasons. The population structure is ageing and changing geographi- cally. The growth of the elderly population is evident in all ad- vanced countries. In Finland the dependency ratio is increasing more sharply than in most other European countries. The situation is even more alarming from the point of view of economic de- pendency. Lifestyle diseases caused by obesity are increasing in all age groups. Alcohol con- sumption is rising and causing more and more alcohol-related health and social problems. Changes in the age structure are also driving up the number of ageing-related diseases, such as osteoporosis, cancer and brain disorders. There is also growing concern about the mental health of children and youths. The reorganisation of care pro- vision can help to make the work of care professionals more mean-20_FinnSight 2015
  25. 25. 3 Well-being and Healthingful and more attractive. Thenumber of immigrants movinginto Finland may become a matterof great importance to the futureof the social and health care sys-tem, for it is faced with a seriousshortage of labour. Advances in medicine andICTs as well as the developmentof new health services modelswork as counter trends to thechanges in the population agestructure. These can help pavethe way to the more effectiveprovision of health care servicesfor the population. At the same ICTs to modernise health care servicestime the emphasis is increasingly Health and welfare policy as a whole will need to be completely re-shifting to the prevention of dis- thought in the future. The health care system is headed into a crisis, fac-eases. ing a shortage of labour, funding problems in local government and staff Globalisation has not and will overload problems. There are also problems with the availability of spe-not have the effect of undermin- cialised health care and emergency care arrangements in local Finnish welfare society. In- The structures and mechanisms of the service system can be completelytellectual, social and physical overhauled by means of combined with a system Advances in health technology can help to slow the rise of costs. Newthat has a capacity for change, pharmaceuticals alleviate symptoms and cure and prevent diseases. Ontogether constitute strong com- the other hand, future technologies are more and more often high tech-petitive factors in an integrating nologies or preventive technologies. High technology provides ways ofworld. preventing or curing diseases, but these treatments are very expensive. It is expected that the emphasis in “hard” medicine will shift increasingly from treatment to prevention. Health technology is constantly gaining in significance. Finland has exceptionally strong expertise in this field as well as good opportunities to test innovations in real environments. In the future, there will be ample opportunities for the practical application of that expertise, as long as in- dustry and academia continue to deepen their collaboration. Health technology also produces crucially important home care and telecare services, for which there is growing demand with the continuing ageing of the population and rural depopulation. On the other hand, tele- care systems also raise new kinds of professional and ethical questions. New ICTs are also paving the way to improved customer manage- ment. With each patient’s consent, health care staff can easily access rel- evant patient information – by virtue of wireless terminals even without FinnSight 2015_21
  26. 26. Another important way of main- taining health is by means of physi- cal exercise. Sports services should be set up in places where they are most readily accessible. The devel- opment of new sports service con- cepts requires the input of experts who understand the needs and impacts of exercise for health in different target groups. time and location constraints. A national health portal is needed as a The growth of knowledge is source of general information and guidance on the use of services and on revolutionising research and treat- how to apply for benefits. ment. The challenge now is to Various kinds of secure information system services are important not make that knowledge more wide- only for improved health care delivery, but they are also valuable export ly accessible. It is the responsibil- products. Finnish businesses are exceptionally well placed to make use of ity of the authorities to make sure the electronic health record and the national system architecture in their that citizens receive as accurate own product development. evidence-based information as possible. From the treatment of diseases to health promotion In recent years the prevention Advance prevention of problems will assume increasing prominence in fu- of many public health problems ture social and health policy. The main emphasis will shift to life-long health has been delegated from the pub- promotion. From a population point of view the health of children and youths lic health care system to public is crucial because health habits and attitudes are acquired at a young age. health organisations. If there is Very often the choices of individuals, families and communities are a real and serious commitment more important than the service system. New technologies and services to promoting public health in the now give people the chance independently to improve and promote their future, then central and local gov- own well-being. ernment will need to clearly step From a health promotion point of view there are significant development up their investment in this effort. needs in activities aimed at preventing exclusion and marginalisation, the use of addictive and other substances as well as problems in the workplace and in families. The latest research evidence heavily underlines the impor- tance of prenatal and child health clinics to well-being and lends support to strengthening the clinic system, which in recent years has weakened. More research is also needed into the factors that impact the health be- haviour and marginalisation of children and youths. Mental health problems in children and youths are giving cause to growing concern. The numbers retiring on grounds of mental health problems are also increasing. There are several different avenues to health promotion and the pre- vention of diseases. One of the most important of them is diet. It would be important to gain a clearer and fuller picture of the mechanisms in- volved in food, eating, health and well-being.22_FinnSight 2015
  27. 27. 3 Well-being and Health However, even knowledge isnot always enough to steer and the field of stem cell research, which in the near future may be bringingshape lifestyle choices, but moti- changes to treatment practices in many disease groups.vation may be required as well. Brain research is also making rapid progress and producing applica-Citizens are more and more clearly tions for the diagnosis and treatment of brain disorders and psychiatricdivided now between those lead- illnesses. Practical applications have emerged most particularly in theing a healthy life and those with field of imaging, which is also continuing to make impressive progress.unhealthy living habits. The promo- In the sector of health and welfare technology there is a clear demandtion of health in the latter groups for cross-disciplinary experts with a strong background in both mathemat-ties in closely with the structural ics, the natural sciences, technology and biosciences. Core professionalmeasures taken by society. competencies will not in themselves guarantee success unless business and marketing specialists are trained at the same time. In Finland, there isResearch in biomedicine certainly a significant need and demand for such specialists.can pave the way to break-throughs in health careThe impacts of research in bio-medicine extend from basic re-search through to the varioushealth care sectors. Genomics andproteomics knowledge is openingup new avenues for the preven-tion, diagnosis and treatment ofboth common and rare diseases.Practical applications are relatedfirst and foremost to the diagnosisand treatment of cancer. The disciplines and technolo-gies related to research in this fieldand to its application are verystrong in Finland, but also scat-tered. Our competitive advantageis based on public health care, anatmosphere that is favourable toresearch, well-studied and well-described population and patientdatasets and strong traditions ofclinical and basic research. Finland should invest in mo-lecular medicine, nanoscienceand nanotechnology and in practi-cal applications in these fields.Finland is also strongly placed in FinnSight 2015_23
  28. 28. Environmental management: a new area of strength Focus areas of competence: • the operation of ecosystems • the management of environmen- tal issues in Finland and globally • urban environments • water systems and water cleaning technologies • biomass as an energy source and biomass production technologies • improved energy efficiency or “negawatts” • new energy production systems and their integration • smart sensors and new energy conversion and storage tech- nologies • logistics, distribution • mobile and distributed technolo- gies as a platform for energy and environmental services In order to adapt successfully to environmental changes and to put effec- tive measures of environmental protection into place, we will need to gain a much clearer understanding in the coming years about climate change, the operation and tolerance of ecosystems and the mechanisms of ecosystem interdependence. Environmental management is a demanding business in which the scale of operation often ranges from the local to global. Furthermore, it is dependent on a large number of drivers. Different sectors of society need to be better prepared than they are now to manage uncertainty and to respond flexibly to changing situations. Finland has an extremely high level of ecological expertise and com- petence. It is important to make sure that this expertise and competence is fostered and developed and that it is put to even better practical use. Furthermore, the development of methods of environmental manage- ment will require support for basic research, joint research programmes among different funding bodies as well as ongoing dialogue between the24_FinnSight 2015