21st Century ForesightNew Instruments in Foresight Studies   Dr Rafael Popper   Research Fellow   University of Manchester...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies   Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)OutlineNew concepts (as instruments)New f...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies          Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Foresight (F) Concept           ...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies         Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Horizon Scanning (HS) Concept Ho...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies                      Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Weak Signals Concept...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies                                                     Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.1...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies                       Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Fully-Fledged Evalu...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies                      Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Fully-Fledged Evalua...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies   Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)                                           ...
NEWForesight Process Management   Framework
NEWMethodology Framework                  NEW              Products & Services
New Instruments in Foresight Studies   Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)                                           ...
New Instruments in Foresight Studies   Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New uses of SNA techniques in Foresight
New Instruments in Foresight Studies   Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Foresight & HS systems
New Instruments in Foresight Studies   Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)Two final remarks We must transform Concep...
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New instruments in foresight studies (Popper, 2011)

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New instruments in foresight studies (Popper, 2011)

  1. 1. 21st Century ForesightNew Instruments in Foresight Studies Dr Rafael Popper Research Fellow University of Manchester Rafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk Innovation Director Futures Diamond Rafael.Popper@futuresdiamond.com
  2. 2. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)OutlineNew concepts (as instruments)New frameworks (as instruments)New products (as instruments)New services (as instruments)New systems (as instruments)
  3. 3. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Foresight (F) Concept  Key/Emerging & Frontier Issues Foresight is a  Environmental Scanning systematic, participatory, prospecti  Horizon Scanning ve and policy-oriented process which, with the support of  ART environmental and horizon  Anticipating  Recommending scanning approaches, is aimed to  Transforming actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range of activities  TEEPSE futures anticipating, recommending and  Technological  Economic transforming (ART)  Environmental technological, economic, environ  Political mental, political, social and ethical  Social (TEEPSE) futures.  Ethical
  4. 4. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Horizon Scanning (HS) Concept Horizon Scanning (HS) is a  MAP  Monitoring structured and continuous activity  Analysing aimed at monitoring, analysing  Positioning and positioning (MAP) „frontier issues‟ that are relevant for  Agendas policy, research and strategic  Policy agendas. The types of issues  Research mapped by HS include  Strategy new/emerging:  NEF Issues trends, policies, practices, stakehol  New ders, services, products, technologi  Emerging es, behaviours, attitudes, „surprises‟  Frontier (wild cards) and „seeds of change‟ (weak signals).
  5. 5. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Weak Signals Concept Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often  Influenced by referred to as “seeds of change”, providing  Mental frameworks advance intelligence or “hints” about  Subjective interpretations potentially important futures, e.g. Wild  Limited information Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak  Time/Context Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks  i3 uncertain issues and subjective interpretations of individuals  Interpretation with limited information about emerging  Importance trends, developments or issues in a particular  Implications time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about  Pseudo-evidence-based their interpretations, importance and  Unclear observables implications in the short-medium-to-long- term. Weak Signals are unclear observables  Creativity-based warning us about the possibility of future  Game changing events “game changing” events.
  6. 6. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011) New Interpretation & Sense-making framework S = Situation-bounded (time & context) Interpretation & Sense-making WI WE S4 emerging / new issueslevel of uncertainty WI assessment WE S3 re-emerging issues WI WE discontinuation S2 issues WI WE continuation S1 issues past today future
  7. 7. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Fully-Fledged Evaluation Framework (1 of 2) Ten common foresight evaluation criteria  Criterion 01: Appropriateness and level of achievement of objectives  Criterion 02: Performance of the management and funding mechanisms  Criterion 03: Justification of the programme in terms of value for money  Criterion 04: Effectiveness and efficiency of the organisational structure  Criterion 05: Effectiveness and efficiency of the approaches and methods  Criterion 06: Effectiveness and efficiency of implementation and aftercare  Criterion 07: Level of capacities and Foresight culture achieved  Criterion 08: Level of national, sub-national and international presence  Criterion 09: Level of commitment of participants  Criterion 10: Level of novelty and impact of projects
  8. 8. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Fully-Fledged Evaluation Framework (2 of 2) Five criteria to assess impact on STI systems  Criterion 11: Impact on public and private policies and strategies  Criterion 12: Impact on agendas of STI programmes and institutions  Criterion 13: Impact on the consolidation of research groups  Criterion 14: Impact on the consolidation of S&T  Criterion 15: Impact on international projects Five criteria to assess contributions to a knowledge-based society  Criterion 16: New products and services (publications, courses, etc.)  Criterion 17: New policy recommendations and research agendas  Criterion 18: New processes and skills (management, research)  Criterion 19: New paradigms or scientific/technological developments  Criterion 20: New players (e.g. sponsors, collaborators, networks)
  9. 9. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011) S.M.A.R.T.E.R. Policy Cycle
  10. 10. NEWForesight Process Management Framework
  11. 11. NEWMethodology Framework NEW Products & Services
  12. 12. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011) Methods Combination Matrix (MCM)
  13. 13. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New uses of SNA techniques in Foresight
  14. 14. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Foresight & HS systems
  15. 15. New Instruments in Foresight Studies Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)Two final remarks We must transform Concepts &Frameworks… …into Innovative Practices,Products & Services We must transform the Systems Rhetoric… ...into Systems Development

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