This is my presentation and speaking notes during the Solarbe webinar regarding Indonesia's journey toward GW scale solar implementation. What does it take for Indonesia to develop GW scale solar projects? What are the benefits to Indonesia to have GW scale solar? Indonesia can be the Asia-Pacific hub for solar PV industry (manufacturing, human resources, financing, investment). Greening the currently dirty supply chain. Regional grid for electricity trading. ASEAN region electricity and carbon credit/Renewable Energy Credit trading and Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution targets. A country (or a few countries) meeting their Paris Agreement NDCs will not save us from climate change. Regional level NDC target compliance is much more impactful and it can only be done with regional clean energy based electricity trade

3. We’re running behind on keeping climate change to a minimum. Many say
we’ve gone over the tipping point. In addition, our resources are
dwindling.

4. Let’s not focus on the specific numbers because people will argue on the
measurement methodology. Let’s instead look at the relative sizes of
the global crude oil reserves.

5. How much does Indonesia have compared to other countries? So what
does that have anything to do with GW scale solar?

6. Let’s now look at the same reserves in terms of how long before we run
out of oil. Again, let’s not dwell on the specific numbers, but the fact
that there is a finite amount of oil in reserves before global reserves
run out. The end is visible within the next few generations.

7. What about Indonesia specifically in terms of oil and gas productions? Its
oil production has declined while its consumption continue to rise
making Indonesia now a net importer of oil. Gas production is still
keeping up with domestic demands, even if production continues to
decline year after year.

8. Solar continues to be projected as the future replacement for electricity
generation. It is the easiest to deploy, although it requires the most
amount of land per MW(e). Its intermittency and not being
dispatchable is being offset by energy storage (thermal or chemical)
and rapidly approaching parity of energy storage with many fossil fuel
sources (already so with diesel and some gas power plants).
Additionally, as more and more utility companies start to understand
how to manage and operate the grid for flexibility, a higher
penetration of renewable portion is becoming more common. This
encourages and allows for more variable renewable energy projects to
be installed and connected to the grid.

9. What does the future of solar look like? Can it keep up with the stresses
of additional population? Can we keep up with reducing demand and
avoid extreme climate change effects? Can we build enough solar
before we run out of fossil fuel? Or run out of clean air to breathe? Or
before coastal cities drown under rising sea levels?

10. When looking at the global map of irradiation, Indonesia doesn’t have the
highest irradiation values. Australia, Africa, South America, China,
Middle East, and Mongolia all have far higher irradiation values.
However, this should not be a barrier of implementing solar PV
projects. Many European countries with far lower irradiation values
than Indonesia are world leaders in solar PV implementation.

11. Europe is a great example of having countries with low irradiation but
have installed significant amounts of solar PV. Japan is another
country closer to Indonesia with large amounts of solar PV installation
despite low irradiation values. On the other hand, Africa and the
Middle East has very high irradiation values but low amounts of solar
PV installation. This is because their electricity demand is fairly low
(Africa), or in the case of the Middle East there is a high dependence
on cheap oil. Currently a few Middle East countries have started to
shift toward solar PV with the installation of mega solar parks up to
800 MW and larger.

12. Let’s take a short break and ponder about WHY we need GW solar
projects to happen in more places. In the meantime, let me tell you
about Quantum and why Quantum is able to develop, fund, and
implement GW scale solar PV projects in Indonesia and any other
locations where it’s viable. After that I’ll continue providing information
to you on what the catalysts are for GW scale solar.

13. In collaboration with our partner, Quantum has put in place dedicated JV
companies and structure to develop, fund, construct and operate GW
scale solar PV projects. Developing projects without access to fund
can be an exercise in futility. We need to know early in the
development stage what the investment criteria are for the sources of
fund for the project. There have been many projects (of various sizes)
globally that have been stuck on the fundraising stage; many have
been stuck for years. This is true especially in Indonesia where hydro,
wind, and solar projects (and others) have been developed in good
faith, but the circumstances of the project made it difficult to fund
through typical means.
Quantum’s approach is to clarify as much of the requirements for funding
early on so that we only develop projects that are known to meet the
funding requirements of many investors.

14. One example is this project we developed in Indonesia. It is the first and
largest solar PV project in Indonesia with a single axis tracker. This
project was developed during the infancy days of Indonesia’s solar PV
market back in 2014 and when funding solar PV IPP projects in
Indonesia through project financing is difficult. Additionally this
project was an unsolicited project to PLN so Quantum’s team has had
to provide capacity development and trainings to PLN regarding grid
integration of variable renewable energy power plants.

15. A view of Quantum developed solar PV project in Gorontalo
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16. The following examples show projects in development by Quantum as part
of its GW scale solar PV program in Indonesia. Each project is made
possible only because Quantum is taking advantage of the
opportunities provided by the catalysts in the market today. We will
discuss those catalysts toward the end of this presentation, but these
projects in development are examples of how the catalysts enable the
development and soon to be implementation of GW scale solar PV
projects.

17. This project is enabled by having mineral processing plants with a global
market demanding low carbon footprint products. As the processed
minerals are exported out of Indonesia, the clients already demand
low carbon footprint as a voluntary measure to be environmentally
friendly. In addition, there are also countries that impose carbon taxes
on the carbon footprint of the imported products and materials. These
conditions require that the mineral processing companies “green its
supply chain”. This creates opportunities that Quantum is taking
advantage of in Indonesia and around the region.

18. This is a 3.5 GWp solar PV project with 12 GWh battery energy storage
system for export to Singapore. This is only possible because of the
imbalance of supply and demand of solar PV electricity between the
two countries. Indonesia’s abundance of land allows it to build solar
PV power plants while Singapore’s need for massive amounts of clean
electricity provide the demand.

19. So what are the catalysts to GW scale solar PV projects? We‘’ve touched
on it a little bit while explaining how Quantum is able to develop the
above two GW scale projects.

20. The first catalyst is the need for greening the supply chains for the global
market of commodities. Mineral processing is one of the industries
that require massive amounts of electricity per ton of processed
product. Other more popular markets to be explored include garment
and shoe industries, electronics component manufacturing, etc.
The second catalyst is the imbalance of domestic renewable energy
supply and electricity demand in each country’s own market. The
imbalance can be balanced if two or more compatible countries agree
to trade electricity from a high supply/low demand country to a low
supply/high demand country such as Indonesia and Singapore.

21. This slide is just showing that nickel processing for nickel metal and nickel
oxide are two nickel ore products that are the most energy intensive in
their processing. At 3.07 kWh of electricity consumption per capita
(per day), each ton of nickel metal can serve the electricity needs for
16,000 people each day (4,000 households) while each ton of Nickel
oxide can serve 33,500 people (8,400 households). This energy use has
a corresponding CO2 emission that is equally high and not sustainable.
The need for green nickel (low carbon footprint nickel products) globally
continues to rise; predominantly used for stainless steel production,
rising needs for nickel-based lithium-ion batteries adds to the global
nickel demand. At 2.5 million tonnes of annual nickel ore production
(760,000 of which are produced in Indonesia), we can imagine how
many TWh of green electricity is needed.

22. Just in the three neighboring countries of Singapore, Malaysia, and
Indonesia, Singapore has the highest installed capacity for electricity
per capita. Indonesia is the lowest at 1/7th of Singapore’s installed
capacity. This shows just how hungry for electricity power Singapore
is, which is an opportunity for Indonesia to supply electricity to
Singapore. Malaysia has 3.4 x the installed capacity for electricity per
capita compared to Indonesia.

23. When compared to the land mass availability, we can see that Indonesia
by far has the most land mass compared to Malaysia and Singapore.
This means Indonesia has the capability to install and supply much
more solar PV on its land when compared to Malaysia and Singapore.
As Singapore is motivated to reduce its carbon footprint, it is unable to
do so through the installation of solar PV due to its limited land mass.
Singapore is maximizing its rooftop solar PV installations through its
SolarNova tender program and various incentives available to rooftop
solar PV owners.

24. Speaking about the regional grid and exporting Indonesia’s solar PV (and
other clean energy technologies) based electricity to Singapore, this is
already happening. Earlier this year, Singapore has started to import
hydro power electricity from Laos through the transmission grids in
Thailand and Malaysia. The ASEAN regional grid is already happening
and being implemented with Indonesia potentially being left behind of
this opportunity.

25. ASEAN regional grid has essentially happened with the Laos-Singapore
green electricity trade. Will Indonesia take advantage of this? With
Singapore EMA’s RfP for clean energy import, this is an opportunity
that is wide open for Indonesia to build up to 20 GWp of solar PV with
the corresponding undersea cable interconnection paid by the IPP
companies. The costs of the battery, interconnection cable and the
capital expenses for the solar PV system are all 100% borne by the
Singapore electricity users. There are no costs to Indonesia to enjoy
all the economic benefits of the investments for 20GWp of solar PV
projects. These benefits include any upstream industries such as solar
panel manufacturing, steel and aluminum industries, electrical cable
production, and civil work materials such as cement.

26. With or without Indonesia, Singapore will import clean energy.

27. Indonesia can choose to participate in the regional electricity trade or not.
The party will go on.

28. So, what are the benefits if Indonesia participate in the electricity trade to
Singapore? Where to begin, it’s all benefits and there are no costs to
Indonesia. There are some people who would argue that this endeavor
will empower Singapore and will cause companies to invest in
Singapore strictly due to the availability of green electricity (from
Indonesia). This is a hugely false assumptions; companies invest and
have a presence in Singapore for far more important factors than just
the fact that Singapore has green electricity supplied from Indonesia.
Additionally, just the solar PV and battery investment alone if all the
consortium seriously putting effort toward developing the Indonesia-
Singapore solar PV electricity import is already US$ 50-60 billion. This
by far outstrips the value of the companies willing to be in Singapore
ONLY for the availability of green energy in Singapore. In addition,
there would also be several billion US$ of investments and economic
growth from the supporting industries such as solar panel
manufacturing, additional orders for cabling, steel, aluminum, food
supplies (meat, chicken, egg, vegetables, etc) and various services.

29. Quantum’s own project will be one the largest solar PV projects in the
world, bringing with it many jobs, foreign direct investments, use of
unproductive land, and many others.

30. This infographics clearly shows the many specific benefits that will happen
when Quantum’s project starts construction.

31. For the environmental benefits, there is the argument that as the carbon
credits will likely to be retired in Singapore, Indonesia will miss out on
being able to fulfill its NDC. This is the wrong mindset to have. What
needs to be arranged is a regional NDC accounting that is acceptable
to UNFCCC. An individual country meeting its NDC commitment has no
impact to global climate change. Whether it’s Indonesia or Singapore
that benefits from this project’s carbon credits, it is irrelevant to the
effects of climate change.
A regional NDC accounting allowing countries within the region to
collaborate on the NDC reporting is needed to make significant impact
to global climate change. In this scenario, it’s no longer Indonesia or
Singapore reporting their individual NDC commitment, but the region
(ASEAN is possible). The portions of each country’s NDC that can be
attributed to cross-country electricity trade should be reported
together as a region and reduced from each country’s contribution in a
fair manner.
No matter what, being able to install and operate 20GWp of solar PV in
Indonesia to be exported to Singapore a leap forward toward
improving global climate change

32. This final infographic shows Quantum’s Indonesia First project
development approach. Many local and national benefits have been
designed and prepared from the early stages of the development.

33. So what can we do to move things forward?

34. Lobbying to the Indonesian government to allow solar PV based
electricity export to Singapore. This is an important step toward being
able to move forward rapidly to implement the solar PV projects to be
exported to Singapore.

35. Allowing the export of solar PV based electricity to Singapore from
Indonesia comes at zero cost to Indonesia.

36. Why is it zero cost to Indonesia?
1. Private sector companies are paying for the investments needed to
construct the solar PV projects
2. Singapore electricity users are paying for the addition of batteries and
for the investment in the undersea interconnection cable through the
electricity tariffs agreed with the IPPs.
3. There are no lost investment opportunities by Singapore having clean
electricity available from Indonesia. Very few if any companies are
willing to invest in Singapore STRICTLY only because Indonesia
supplied Singapore with clean electricity.
4. Indonesia will enjoy the economic benefits of the installation of up to
20 GWp of solar PV projects (from all the consortium currently putting
in serious effort in developing this project)
5. Indonesia will enjoy the capacity development of the solar PV market
in Indonesia
6. Indonesia can be the new hub for solar PV industry in ASEAN and
surrounding area

37. There are no natural resource exploitation from this project. What’s being
exported is electrons that are generated from the sun’s irradiation that
fall on Indonesian soil Nothing physical is being sent from Indonesia
to Singapore and nothing physical is being extracted from Indonesian
natural resources.

38. Despite government targets of 5GW of solar being built in the next few
years, the fact is that Indonesia has only built around 350MW of solar
PV power plants in the last 10 years. Domestic need and demand for
solar PV in Indonesia is very low, especially with PLN claiming that
there is an oversupply of generation in the Java-Bali grid (where up to
5GW of solar PV projects can be built easily based on a 10-15% rule of
thumb for integration of Variable Renewable Energy without the need
for batteries and/or complex control systems).
The installation of up to 20GWp of solar PV projects can only be made
possible in the next decade for Indonesia only because there is an
international market for the solar PV generated electricity (Singapore).

39. Just for the power plants alone, if all the consortium are successful in
implementing their solar PV power plants to be exported to Singapore,
this is how much investments that can be expected to be done in
Indonesia. There are no single program of investments in Indonesia
that can bring this much immediate Foreign Direct Investment to
Indonesia.
The alternative is for Indonesia to allow other countries build the solar PV
system and allow the transmission cables to pass through Indonesia’s
territories while collecting the “toll fee”. This is the lazy way out and
provide MUCH less benefits to Indonesia.
By allowing US$ 30-40 billion of investments in Indonesia from
implementing GW solar projects, Indonesia also enables other long-
term, sustainable, and far-reaching investments. Developing the solar
PV market infrastructure such as solar PV panel manufacturing,
inverter and other Balance of System component manufacturing,
development of highly sought skilled workers allows Indonesia to be at
the center of solar PV industry.

40. Lastly (among all the benefits that should be discussed publicly; over beer
there are many other politically sensitive benefits that we can discuss)
Indonesia can be the new hub for solar PV industry. Having the need
to supply up to 20 GWp of solar PV projects means that there is a huge
possibility for additional investments surrounding the solar PV project
supply chain. This is what can create industry leading solar PV hub in
Indonesia.
When the projects are being designed, solar PV panel manufacturing,
battery manufacturing, solar PV racking manufacturing, and many
other supporting industries will come to Indonesia in order to be able
to supply their products to the projects.

41. Will Indonesia take full advantage of the benefits it will receive by
allowing electricity export to Singapore? Or will it only miss out on all
these benefits?

44. Thank you,
andre@quantumpower.com.sg
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andresusanto/
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